project report - derivatives
TRANSCRIPT
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INTRODUCTION
The past decade has witnessed an explosive growth in the use of financial
derivatives by a wide range of corporate and financial institutions. This growth
has run in the parallel with the increasing direct reliance of the companies on
the capital markets as the major source of long term funding. In this respect,
derivatives have a vital role to play in enhancing shareholder value by
ensuring access to the cheapest source of funds. Furthermore, active use of
derivatives instruments allows the overall business risk profile to be modified,
thereby providing the potential to improve earning quality by offsetting
undesired risks.
Derivatives can be indeed be used safely and successfully provided that a
sensible controls and management strategy is established and executed.
Certainly, a degree of quantitative pricing and risk analysis may be needed,
depending on the extent and sophistication of the derivative strategies
employed.
History of Stock Market
The Bombay Stock Exchange was set up in 1875.
The markets acquired breadth and size in the late 80s and early 90s.
Initial momentum provided by MNC dilution.
Followed by a spate of public issues.
And now, PSU disinvestments.
Till recently, the Indian markets lacked the depth in terms of players and asset
classes.
As a result, the retail stakeholder was the venture capitalist, speculator and
investor all in one.
The Drivers of transition
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SEBI, RBIPOLICIES AND
REGULATIONS
ELECTRONIC TRADING,
SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS
MFS, FIIS, HEDGE FUNDS,
PVT EQUITY INVESTORS,PROF FUND
MGR, PVT BKG ARMS OF BANKS
PRIVATE EQUITY, DEBT,
EQUITIES, DERIVATIVES
ICRA, FITCH,
CARE, CRISIL
THE NATIONAL
STOCK EXCHANGE
PLAYERS
RATING AGENCIES
ASSET CLASSES
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LITERATURE REVIEW
AND
PROBLEM FORMULATION
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LITERATURE REVIEW AND PROBLEM FORMULATION
The effects of introduction of derivatives on Indian capital market have been
widely studies across the world. The empirical works have focused on the
derivatives Market to address a wide range of issues, such as volatility
implication, lead-lag relationship between spot and derivative markets, market
efficiency, etc.
Other researchers report contradictory finding in different markets. The studyon the UK markets by Watt et al. (1992) found that option listing had no effect
on beta but unsystematic risk and total risk were found to have declined.
Kabir (1999) studied the markets in Netherlands and found that no significant
changes in risk took place after the introduction of option in the Dutch
markets.
In the Indian context Arma (1999) investigated the volatility estimation models
comparing LARCH and the EWMA models in the risk management setting.
Pander (2002) explored the extreme value estimators and found that they
perform better than the traditional close to close estimators although his study
does not consider the performance of extreme s clue estimators sersus time
varying volatility models.
Kaur (2004) examined the nature and characteristics of capital market in India
from the literature review the following points emerge.
There are a number of studies on the impact of derivatives on the capital
market. The results so far are mixed. Some markets have shown increase in
volatility following derivative introductions, while in other capital markets has
decreased or remained at the same level. Studies in the Indian contest found
no significant changes in the volatility of underlying capital market after the
introduction of derivative. This study examines more closely whether the
advent of future and option trading has led to an increase in index stocks
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daily return co variation, systematic risk and volatility in the Indian capital
market.
In a recent study, Bologna and Cavallo (2002) investigated the stock market
volatility in the post derivative period for the Italian stock exchange using
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of
models. To eliminate the effect of factors other than stock index futures (i.e.,
the macroeconomic factors) determining the changes in volatility in the post
derivative period, the GARCH model was estimated after adjusting the stock
return equation for market factors, proxied by the returns on an index (namely
Dax index) on which derivative products are not introduced. This study shows
that unlike the findings by Antoniou and Holmes (1995) for the London Stock
Exchange (LSE), the introduction of index future, per se, has actually reduced
the stock price volatility. Bologna and Covalla also found that in the post
Index-future period the importance of present news has gone up in
comparison to the old news in determining the stock price volatility.
A few studies have been undertaken to evaluate the effect of introduction of
derivative products on capital markets. While Thenmozhi (2002) showed that
the inception of futures trading has reduced the volatility of spot index returns
due to increased information flow. According to Shenbagaraman (2003), the
introduction of derivative products did not have any significant impact on
market volatility in India.
In a study made by Snehal Bendivedkar and Saurabh gosh,( following
Bologna and Cavallo (2002)) GARCH model has been used to empiricallyevaluate the effects on volatility of the Indian spot market and to see that what
extent the change (if any) could be attributed to the of introduction of index
futures. The empirical analysis points towards a decline in spot market
volatility after the introduction of index futures due to increased impact of
recent news and reduced effect of uncertainty originating from the old news.
However, further investigation also reveals that the market wide volatility has
fallen during the period under consideration.
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It is studied to analyze the role played by the Derivatives in the stock market
with emphasis on Indian capital market and how the risk can be hedged
through derivatives.
Indian securities markets have indeed waited for too long for derivatives
trading to emerge. Mutual Funds, FIIs and other investors who were deprived
of hedging opportunities now have a derivatives market to bank on. First to
emerge are the globally popular variety - index futures.
While derivatives markets flourished in the developed world Indian markets
remain deprived of financial derivatives to the beginning of this millennium.While the rest of the world progressed by leaps and bounds on the derivatives
front, Indian market lagged behind. Having emerged in the markets of the
developed nations in the 1970s, derivatives markets grew from strength to
strength. The trading volumes nearly doubled in every three years making it a
trillion-dollar business. They became so ubiquitous that, now, one cannot
think of the existence of financial markets without derivatives.
Two broad approaches of SEBI is to integrate the securities market at thenational level, and also to diversify the trading products, so that more number
of traders including banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, mutual
funds, primary dealers etc. choose to transact through the Exchanges. In this
context the introduction of derivatives trading through Indian Stock Exchanges
permitted by SEBI in 2000 AD is a real landmark.
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PROBLEM STATEMENT
Investors were too scared in investing in the stock market as they thought itas pure gamble. Moreover their interests were not safe due to lack of proper
rules and regulation. But if we look towards the development, which has taken
place in the capital market, it has gradually started adding the capital wealth
to the investors.
As this environment is dynamic and keeps on changing, so accordingly the
investor has to mould and turn out the strategies in order to over come the
risk and uncertainties of the market.
This project will help the investor to measure the market risk (systematic
risk).The market risk can be evaluated with the help of Beta. In this way the
investor will be able to allocate his funds in various derivative instruments so
that the risk is hedged.
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OBJECTIVES
AND
RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
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OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSED STUDY
1 To study the emergence of derivative concept in the Indian capital market-
This project will highlight the summary of the evolution of the derivatives
and the contribution of different committees.
2 To know the various types of derivatives in the stock market- The project
will provide an insight into the various kinds of derivatives available in the
capital market like:
1. Forward Contract
2. Futures Contract
3. Call Option
4. Put Option
3. To know the various techniques of minimizing risks- In this project we will
come across various combinations of derivatives instruments that should beused in a particular market condition (bullish, bearish and stable) in order to
avoid risk.
4. To know the regulatory framework for the derivative trading in India- The
project will provide information on SEBIs regulatory role which includes
approving the rules, bye- laws and regulations of derivatives and approval of
proposed derivative contracts before commencement of trading.
5. To know various challenges in trading with derivatives in Indian stock
market- As the stock market is very dynamic, the small investors are reluctant
to invest their hard earned money. Hence public awareness & education
regarding the benefits of trading sensibly is very important.
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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research methodology is a way to systematically sole the research problems.It may be understood as a science of study how research is done
scientifically. In it we study the various steps that are generally adopted by a
researcher in studying his research problem along witht the logic behind them.
It is necessary for the researcher to know not only research
methods/techniques but also the methodology. Researchers not only need to
know how to develop certain indices or tests, how to calculate the mean, the
mode, the median or the standard deviation or chi-square, how to apply
particular research techniques, but they also need to know which of these
methods or techniques, are relevant and which are not, and what would they
mean and indicate and why.
Research methodology deals with the various methods of research. The
purpose of the research methodology is to explain the research procedures
used in the research methodology. It helps in carrying out the project report by
analyzing the various research findings collected through the data collectionmethod
A large number of Illustrations will be included with the aim of providing skills
to compute pricing of various derivatives instruments. Terminology of
derivatives will be explained in simple language for an easy understanding of
the underlying concept.
Now for study of derivatives we have two types of data which are in use these
are as follows:
1. Primary data
2. Secondary data
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Now, primary data are data gathered and assembled for specifically for the
project at hand. In this project I am using different type of primary data
collection like Questionnaire Method & some other methodsThis primary data
can be slow and high in cost.
Secondary, or historical, data like market figures and charts will be used to
ascertain better understanding of various concepts and ideas. The derivatives
will be more cleared by the use of different scaling techniques. Now thiese
scaling techniques are then classified as comaprative and non-comparative.
Comparative scale involve the direct measurment of stimulus objects and data
hve only ordinal or rank-order properties. Now here by the use of a type of
comparative scaling technique called Paired Comparisons where we can
make a choice between two objects is has become easy to understand the
use of derivatives. Some pricing models were used get the conclusion.
Now in this project I have studied the SEBI and RBI reports. I have also
worked on the stock exchange reports. I am also covering the growth of
derivtives market in the past few years to know more about the derivatives For
this I am using some graphs to give more idea about these derivatives. I have
also studied how the derivative products are introduced in the global market
and how is helps in reducing the risk while investing in shares.
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DATA ANALYSIS
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INTRODUCTION OF DERIVATIVES
Keeping in view the experience of even strong and developed economies the
world over, it is no denying the fact that financial market is extremely volatile
by nature. Indian financial market is not an exception to this phenomenon.
The attendant risk arising out of the volatility and complexity of the financial
market is an important concern for financial analysts. As a result, the logical
need is for those financial instruments, which allow fund managers to better,
manage or reduce these risks.
For enabling the banks and the financial institutions, among others, to
manage their risk effectively, the concept of derivatives comes into picture.
Development of Indian Derivatives Market
1995: Promulgation of the Securities Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 1995
withdrawing prohibition on options in securities.
November 1996: SEBI set up a 24 member committee under the
chairmanship of Dr. L. C. Gupta with a view to develop regulatory framework
for derivatives trading in India.
March 1998: L C Gupta Committee submitted its report recommending, inter-
alia, that derivatives be declared as securities so that regulatory framework
applicable for trading of securities could also be applicable for derivatives.
December 1999: Securities Contract Regulation Act was amended to include
derivatives within the purview of securities. Regulatory framework was
developed for governing the trading of derivatives.
June 2000: Derivative trading started in India.
2001: SEBI permitted the derivative segment of National Stock Exchange
(NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and their clearing
house/corporation to commence trading and settlement in approved
derivatives contract.
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Approval and commencement of trading in index futures contract based on
S&P CNX Nifty and BSE-30 (Sensex) index as well as for trading in futures on
individual securities.
Approval and commencement of trading in index options based on S&P CNX
Nifty and BSE-30 (Sensex) index as well as for trading in options on individual
securities.
June 2003:In the first phase, only interest rate futures have been introduced
and banks were allowed to hedge interest rate risk inherent in the government
securities, portfolio. Accordingly, trading in interest rate futures contracts innotional 10-year GOI Bonds, notional 91-day Treasury Bills and 10-year zero
coupon bonds commenced at NSE.
Stock exchanges were advised to separate the cash and market segment of
the stock exchanges in terms of legal framework governing trading, clearing,
and settlement of the derivatives segment, establishment of separate
trade/settlement guarantee funds, separate membership and Governing
Council/Executive Committees.
July 2003: Authorized Dealers in Foreign Exchange were permitted to offer
foreign currency-rupee options w.e.f. July 07, 2003 to residents and non-
residents for hedging currency exposures.
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Growth of Derivatives Market in India
Index futures
Yearno. of contracts(in
lakhs) turnover(Rs in crore)
2000-2001 0.91 2365
2001-2002 10.26 21483
2002-2003 21.27 43952
2003-2004 171.92 554446
2004-2005 216.35 772147
2005-2006 585.38 15137552006-2007 814.87 2539574
2007-2008 1565.99 3820667.27
2008-2009 120.63 280100.25
index futures
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000-
2001
2001-
2002
2002-
2003
2003-
2004
2004-
2005
2005-
2006
2006-
2007
2007-
2008
2008-
2009
time period
n
o.ofcontracts(in
lakhs)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
turnover(Rs.
in
crores)
no. of contracts(in lakhs) turnover(rs in crore)
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Index options
yearno. of contracts(in
lakhs) National turnover (Rs. Cr.)
2000-2001 0 0
2001-2002 1.76 3765
2002-2003 4.42 9246
2003-2004 17.32 52816
2004-2005 32.94 121943
2005-2006 129.35 338469
2006-2007 251.57 791906
2007-2008 553.66 1362110.88
2008-2009 53.65 133564.86
index options
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-
2001
2001-
2002
2002-
2003
2003-
2004
2004-
2005
2005-
2006
2006-
2007
2007-
2008
2008-
2009
time period
no.ofcontracts
(in
lakhs)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
nationalturnover(r
s.cr.
)
no. of contracts(in lakhs) national turnover(Rs. Cr.)
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Global Derivatives Market
.
Developments Leading to Inception of Financial Derivatives
Early forward contracts in the U.S addressed merchants concerns about
ensuring that there were buyers and sellers for commodities. However credit
risk remained a serious problem. To deal with this problem, a group of
Chicago businessmen formed the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 1848.
The primary intention of the CBOT was to provide a centralized location
known in advance for buyers and sellers to negotiate forward contracts. In1865, the CBOT went one step ahead and listed the first exchange traded
derivatives contract in the U.S; these contracts were called futures contracts.
In 1919, Chicago Butter and Egg Board, a spin-off of CBOT, was recognized
to allow futures trading. Its name was changed to Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME). The CBOT and the CME remain the two largest organized
futures exchanges, indeed the two largest financial exchanges of any kind in
the world today.
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Calendar of Introduction ofDerivative Products in the Global Market
Year Products
1874 Commodity futures
1972 Foreign currency futures
1973 Equity options
1975 T-bonds futures
1981 Currency swaps
1982
Interest rate swaps; T notes futures; Eurodollar futures; Equity
index futures; options on T-bond futures; Exchange- listed
currency options
1983
Options on equity index; Options on T- notes futures; Euro-dollar
futures; options on equity index futures; interest rates caps and
floors
1985 Euro-dollar options; swaptions
1987 OTC compound options; OTC average options
1989 Futures on interest rate swaps; quanto options
1990 Equity index swaps
1991 Differential swaps
1993 Captions; exchange-listed FLEX options
1994 Credit default options
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DERIVATIVES AND ITS TYPE
A derivative security can be defined as a security whose value depends onthe values of other underlying variables. Very often, the variables underlying
the derivative securities are the prices of traded securities. Thus the
underlying asset can be equity, forex, commodity or any other asset.
By their very nature, the financial markets are marked by a very high degree
of volatility. Through the use of derivative products, it is possible to partially or
fully transfer price risks by locking-in asset prices.
Derivative contracts have several variants:
Forwards
Futures
Options
Swaps
Forwards: A forward contract is a customized contract between two entities,
where settlement takes place on a specific date in the future at todays pre -
agreed price.
Futures: It is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a
certain time in the future at a certain price through exchange traded contracts.
Options: It is an agreement which gives the buyer the right but not the
obligation to buy or sell a given quantity of the underlying assets at a given
price on or before a given date.
Swaps: These are private agreements between two parties to exchange cash
flows in the future according to pre-arranged formula. They can be regarded
as portfolios of forward contracts.
TERMINOLOGY
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FUTURES TERMINOLOGY
Spot price: The price at which an asset trades in the spot market.
Futures price: The price at which the futures contract trades in the futures
market.
Contract cycle: The period over which a contract trades. The index futures
contracts on the NSE have one-month, two-months and three-month expiry
cycles which expire on the last Thursday of the month. Thus a January
expiration contract expires on the last Thursday of January and a February
expiration contract ceases trading on the last Thursday of February. On the
Friday following the last Thursday, a new contract having a three-month expiry
is introduced for trading.
Expiry date: It is the date specified in the futures contract. This is the last day
on which the contract will be traded, at the end of which it will cease to exist.
Contract size: The amount of asset that has to be delivered under one
contract. For instance, the contract size on NSEs futures market is 200 N ifties.
Basis: In the context of financial futures, basis can be defined as the futures
price minus the spot price. There will be a different basis for each delivery
month for each contract. In a normal market, basis will be positive. This reflects
that futures prices normally exceed spot prices.
Cost of carry: The relationship between futures prices and spot prices can be
summarized in terms of what is known as the cost of carry. This measures the
storage cost plus the interest that is paid to finance the asset less the incomeearned on the asset.
Initial margin: The amount that must be deposited in the margin account at the
time a futures contract is first entered into is known as initial margin.
Marking-to-market: In the futures market, at the end of each trading day, the
margin account is adjusted to reflect the investors gain or loss depending upon
the futures closing price. This is called markingtomarket.
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Maintenance margin: This is somewhat lower than the initial margin. This is
set to ensure that the balance in the margin account never becomes negative.
If the balance in the margin account falls below the maintenance margin, the
investor receives a margin call and is expected to top up the margin account to
the initial margin level before trading commences on the next day.
OPTION TERMINOLOGY
Buyer of an option: The buyer of an option is the one who by paying the
option premium buys the right but not the obligation to exercise his option on
the seller/writer.
Writer of an option: The writer of a call/put option is the one who receives the
option premium and is thereby obliged to sell/buy the asset if the buyer
exercises on him.
There are two basic types of options, call options and put options.
Call option: A call option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to buy
an asset by a certain date for a certain price.
Put option: A put option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell
an asset by a certain date for a certain price.
Option price: Option price is the price which the option buyer pays to the
option seller. It is also referred to as the option premium.
Expiration date: The date specified in the options contract is known as the
expiration date, the exercise date, the strike date or the maturity.
Strike price: The price specified in the options contract is known as the strike
price or the exercise price.
American options: American options are options that can be exercised at any
time up to the expiration date. Most exchange-traded options are American.
European options: European options are options that can be exercised only
on the expiration date itself. European options are easier to analyze than
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American options, and properties of an American option are frequently deduced
from those of its European counterpart.
In-the-money option: An in-the-money (ITM) option is an option that would
lead to a positive cash flow to the holder if it were exercised immediately. A call
option on the index is said to be in-the-money when the current index stands at
a level higher than the strike price (i.e. spot price > strike price). If the index is
much higher than the strike price, the call is said to be deep ITM. In the case of
a put, the put is ITM if the index is below the strike price.
At-the-money option: An at-the-money (ATM) option is an option that wouldlead to zero cash flow if it were exercised immediately. An option on the index
is at-the-money when the current index equals the strike price (i.e. spot price =
strike price).
Out-of-the-money option: An out-of-the-money (OTM) option is an option that
would lead to negative cash flow it was exercised immediately. A call option on
the index is out-of-the-money when the current index stands at a level which is
less than the strike price (i.e. spot price < strike price). If the index is muchlower than the strike price, the call is said to be deep OTM. In the case of a put,
the put is OTM if the index is above the strike price.
Intrinsic value of an option: The option premium can be broken down into two
components intrinsic value and time value. The intrinsic value of a call is the
amount the option is ITM, if it is ITM.
If the call is OTM, its intrinsic value is zero.
Time value of an option: The time value of an option is the difference
between its premium and its intrinsic value. Both calls and puts have time
value. An option that is OTM or ATM has only time value. Usually, the
maximum time value exists when the option is ATM. The longer the time to
expiration, the greater is an options time value, all else equal. At expiration, an
option should have no time value.
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Derivatives Market at NSE
The derivatives trading on the exchange commenced with S&P CNX NiftyIndex futures on June 12, 2000. The trading in index options commenced on
June 4, 2001 and trading in options on individual securities commenced on
July 2, 2001. Single stock futures were launched on November 9, 2001. The
index futures and options contract on NSE are based on S&P CNX Nifty
Index. Currently, the futures contracts have a maximum of 3-month expiration
cycles. Three contracts are available for trading, with 1 month, 2 months and
3 months expiry. A new contract is introduced on the next trading day
following the expiry of the near month contract.
Trading mechanism
The futures and options trading system of NSE, called NEAT-F&O trading
system, provides a fully automated screenbased trading for Nifty futures &
options and stock futures & options on a nationwide basis and an online
monitoring and surveillance mechanism. It supports an anonymous order
driven market which provides complete transparency of trading operations
and operates on strict pricetime priority. It is similar to that of trading of
equities in the Cash Market (CM) segment. The NEAT-F&O trading system is
accessed by two types of users. The Trading Members(TM) have access to
functions such as order entry, order matching, and order and trade
management. It provides tremendous flexibility to users in terms of kinds of
orders that can be placed on the system. Various conditions like Good-till-
Day, Good-till-Cancelled, Good till- Date, Immediate or Cancel, Limit/Marketprice, Stop loss, etc. can be built into an order. The Clearing Members (CM)
uses the trader workstation for the purpose of monitoring the trading
member(s) for whom they clear the trades. Additionally, they can enter and
set limits to positions, which a trading member can take.
Membership criteria
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NSE admits members on its derivatives segment in accordance with the rules
and regulations of the exchange and the norms specified by SEBI. NSE
follows 2tier membership structure stipulated by SEBI to enable wider
participation. Those interested in taking membership on F&O segment are
required to take membership of CM and F&O segment or CM, WDM and F&O
segment. Trading and clearing members are admitted separately. Essentially,
a clearing member (CM) does clearing for all his trading members (TMs),
undertakes risk management and performs actual settlement. There are three
types of CMs:
Self Clearing Member: A SCM clears and settles trades executed by
him only either on his own account or on account of his clients.
Trading Member Clearing Member: TMCM is a CM who is also a TM.
TMCM may clear and settle his own proprietary trades and clients
trades as well as clear and settle for other TMs.
Professional Clearing Member PCM is a CM who is not a TM.
Typically, banks or custodians could become a PCM and clear and
settle for TMs.
Clearing and settlement
National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCCL) undertakes
clearing and settlement of all deals executed on the NSEs F&O segment. It
acts as legal counterparty to all deals on the F&O segment and guarantees
settlement. We take a brief look at the clearing and settlement mechanism.
Clearing
The first step in clearing process is working out open positions or obligations
of members. A CMs open position is arrived at by aggregating the open
position of all the TMs and all custodial participants clearing through him, in
the contracts in which they have traded. A TMs open position is arrived at as
the summation of his proprietary open position and clients open positions, in
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the contracts in which they have traded. While entering into orders on the
trading system, TMs are required to identify the orders, whether proprietary (if
they are their own trades) or client (if entered on behalf of clients). Proprietary
positions are calculated on net basis (buy-sell) for each contract. Clients
positions are arrived at by summing together net (buy-sell) positions of each
individual client for each contract. A TMs open position is the sum of
proprietary open position, client open long position and client open short
position.
Settlement
All futures and options contracts are cash settled, i.e. through exchange of
cash. The underlying for index futures/options of the Nifty index cannot be
delivered. These contracts, therefore, have to be settled in cash. Futures and
options on individual securities can be delivered as in the spot market.
However, it has been currently mandated that stock options and futures would
also be cash settled. The settlement amount for a CM is netted across all their
TMs/clients in respect of MTM, premium and final exercise settlement. For the
purpose of settlement, all CMs are required to open a separate bank account
with NSCCL designated clearing banks for F&O segment.
Forward Market
Forward contracts
A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset on a specified date
for a specified price. One of the parties to the contract assumes a long
position and agrees to buy the underlying asset on a certain specified future
date for a certain specified price. The other party assumes a short position
and agrees to sell the asset on the same date for the same price. Other
contract details like delivery date, price and quantity are negotiated bilaterally
by the parties to the contract. The forward contracts are normally traded
outside the exchanges.
No cash is exchanged when the contract is entered into.
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Illustration:
Shyam wants to buy a TV, which costs Rs 10,000 but he has no cash to buy it
outright. He can only buy it 3 months hence. He, however, fears that prices of
televisions will rise 3 months from now. So in order to protect himself from the
rise in prices Shyam enters into a contract with the TV dealer that 3 months
from now he will buy the TV for Rs 10,000. What Shyam is doing is that he is
locking the current price of a TV for a forward contract. The forward contract is
settled at maturity. The dealer will deliver the asset to Shyam at the end of
three months and Shyam in turn will pay cash equivalent to the TV price on
delivery.
The salient features of forward contracts are:
They are bilateral contracts and hence exposed to counterparty risk.
Each contract is custom designed, and hence is unique in terms of
contract size, expiration date and the asset type and quality.
The contract price is generally not available in public domain.
On the expiration date, the contract has to be settled by delivery of the
asset.
If the party wishes to reverse the contract, it has to compulsorily go to
the same counterparty, which often results in high prices being
charged.
However forward contracts in certain markets have become very
standardized, as in the case of foreign exchange, thereby reducing
transaction costs and increasing transactions volume. This process of
standardization reaches its limit in the organized futures market.
Forward contracts are very useful in hedging and speculation. The classic
hedging application would be that of an exporter who expects to receive
payment in dollars three months later. He is exposed to the risk of exchange
rate fluctuations. By using the currency forward market to sell.
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Limitations of forward markets
Forward markets world-wide are afflicted by several problems:
Lack of centralization of trading,
Illiquidity, and
Counterparty risk
In the first two of these, the basic problem is that of too much flexibility and
generality. The forward market is like a real estate market in that any two
consenting adults can form contracts against each other. This often makesthem design terms of the deal which are very convenient in that specific
situation, but makes the contracts non-tradable.
Counterparty risk arises from the possibility of default by any one party to the
transaction. When one of the two sides to the transaction declares
bankruptcy, the other suffers. Even when forward markets trade standardized
contracts, and hence avoid the problem of illiquidity, still the counterparty risk
remains a very serious issue.
Future Market
A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset
at a certain time in the future at a certain price. But unlike forward contracts,
the futures contracts are standardized and exchange traded. It is a
standardized contract with standard underlying instrument, a standard
quantity and quality of the underlying instrument that can be delivered, (or
which can be used for reference purposes in settlement) and a standard
timing of such settlement.
A futures contract may be offset prior to maturity by entering into an equal and
opposite transaction. More than 99% of futures transactions are offset this
way. The standardized items in a futures contract are:
Quantity of the underlying
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Quality of the underlying
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Understanding index futures
A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset
at a certain time in the future at a certain price. Index futures are all futures
contract where the underlying is the stock index (Nifty or Sensex) and helps a
trader to take a view on the market as a whole.
In India we have index futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and the
BSE Sensex and near 3 months duration contracts are available at all times.
Each contract expires on the last Thursday of the expiry month and
simultaneously a new contract is introduced for trading after expiry of acontract.
The permitted lot size is 200 or multiples thereof for the Nifty. That is you buy
one Nifty contract the total deal value will be 200*1100 (Nifty value) = Rs
2,20,000.
In the case of BSE Sensex the market lot is 50. That is you buy one Sensex
futures the total value will be 50*4000 (Sensex value) = Rs 2, 00,000.
Option Market
Introduction to options
Index options: These options have the index as the underlying. Some
options are European while others are American. Like index futures contracts,
index options contracts are also cash settled.
In 1973, Black, Merton and Scholes invented the famed Black-Scholes
formula. In April 1973, CBOE was set up specifically for the purpose of trading
options. The market for options developed so rapidly that by early 80s, the
number of shares underlying the option contract sold each day exceeded the
daily volume of shares traded on the NYSE. Since then, there has been no
looking back. A contract gives the holder the right to buy or sell shares at the
specified price.
Buying put options is buying insurance
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To buy a put option on Nifty is to buy insurance, which reimburses the full
extent to which Nifty drops below the strike price of the put option. This is
attractive to many people, and to mutual funds creating guaranteed return
products.
OPTION
An option is a contract, which gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation
to buy or sell shares of the underlying security at a specific price on or before
a specific date.
Option, as the word suggests, is a choice given to the investor to either
honour the contract; or if he chooses not to walk away from the contract.
To begin, there are two kinds of options: Call Options and Put Options.
A Call Option is an option to buy a stock at a specific price on or before a
certain date. In this way, Call options are like security deposits. If, for
example, you wanted to rent a certain property, and left a security deposit for
it, the money would be used to insure that you could, in fact, rent that property
at the price agreed upon when you returned. If you never returned, you would
give up your security deposit, but you would have no other liability.
When you buy a Call option, the price you pay for it, called the option
premium, secures your right to buy that certain stock at a specified price
called the strike price. If you decide not to use the option to buy the stock, and
you are not obligated to, your only cost is the option premium.
A Put Option is an option to sell a stock at a specific price on or before acertain date. In this way, Put options are like insurance policies, If you buy a
new car, and then buy auto insurance on the car, you pay a premium and are,
hence, protected if the asset is damaged in an accident. If this happens, you
can use your policy to regain the insured value of the car. In this way, the put
option gains in value as the value of the underlying instrument decreases. If
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all goes well and the insurance is not needed, the insurance company keeps
your premium in return for taking on the risk.
With a Put Option, you can "insure" a stock by fixing a selling price. If
something happens which causes the stock price to fall, and thus, "damages"
your asset, you can exercise your option and sell it at its "insured" price level.
If the price of your stock goes up, and there is no "damage," then you do not
need to use the insurance, and, once again, your only cost is the premium.
This is the primary function of listed options, to allow investors ways to
manage risk.
Technically, an option is a contract between two parties. The buyer receives a
privilege for which he pays a premium. The seller accepts an obligation for
which he receives a fee.
Call options
Call options give the taker the right, but not the obligation, to buy the
underlying shares at a predetermined price, on or before a predetermined
date.
Illustration:
Raj purchases 1 Satyam Computer (SATCOM) AUG 150 Call --Premium 8.
This contract allows Raj to buy 100 shares of SATCOM at Rs 150 per share
at any time between the current date and the end of next August. For this
privilege, Raj pays a fee of Rs 800 (Rs eight a share for 100 shares).
The buyer of a call has purchased the right to buy and for that he pays apremium.
Now let us see how one can profit from buying an option.
Sam purchases a December call option at Rs 40 for a premium of Rs 15. That
is he has purchased the right to buy that share for Rs 40 in December. If the
stock rises above Rs 55 (40+15) he will break even and he will start making a
profit. Suppose the stock does not rise and instead falls he will choose not to
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exercise the option and forego the premium of Rs 15 and thus limiting his loss
to Rs 15.
Let us take another example of a call option on the Nifty to understand the
concept better.
A trader is of the view that the index will go up to 1400 in Jan 2002 but doesnot want to take the risk of prices going down. Therefore, he buys 10 options
of Jan contracts at 1345. He pays a premium for buying calls (the right to buy
the contract) for 500*10= Rs 5,000/-.
In Jan 2002 the Nifty index goes up to 1365. He sells the options or exercises
the option and takes the difference in spot index price which is (1365-1345) *
200 (market lot) = 4000 per contract. Total profit = 40,000/- (4,000*10).
He had paid Rs 5,000/- premium for buying the call option. So he earns by
buying call option is Rs 35,000/- (40,000-5000).
If the index falls below 1345 the trader will not exercise his right and will opt to
forego his premium of Rs 5,000. So, in the event the index falls further his
loss is limited to the premium he paid upfront, but the profit potential is
unlimited.
Call Options-Long & Short Positions
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When you expect prices to rise, then you take a long position by buying calls.
You are bullish.
When you expect prices to fall, then you take a short position by selling calls.
You are bearish.
Put Options
A Put Option gives the holder of the right to sell a specific number of shares of
an agreed security at a fixed price for a period of time.
Illustration: Sam purchases 1 INFTEC (Infosys Technologies) AUG 3500 Put
--Premium 200.
This contract allows Sam to sell 100 shares INFTEC at Rs 3500 per share at
any time between the current date and the end of August. To have this
privilege, Sam pays a premium of Rs 20,000 (Rs 200 a share for 100 shares).
The buyer of a put has purchased a right to sell.
Illustration : Raj is of the view that the a stock is overpriced and will fall in
future, but he does not want to take the risk in the event of price rising so
purchases a put option at Rs 70 on X. By purchasing the put option Raj has
the right to sell the stock at Rs 70 but he has to pay a fee of Rs 15 (premium).
So he will breakeven only after the stock falls below Rs 55 (70-15) and will
start making profit if the stock falls below Rs 55.
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Illustration:
An investor on Dec 15 is of the view that Wipro is overpriced and will fall in
future but does not want to take the risk in the event the prices rise. So he
purchases a Put option on Wipro.
Quotes are as under:
Spot Rs 1040
Jan Put at 1050 Rs 10
Jan Put at 1070 Rs 30
He purchases 1000 Wipro Put at strike price 1070 at Put price of Rs 30/-. He
pays Rs 30,000/- as Put premium.
His position in following price position is discussed below.
Jan Spot price of Wipro = 1020
Jan Spot price of Wipro = 1080
In the first situation the investor is having the right to sell 1000 Wipro shares
at Rs 1,070/- the price of which is Rs 1020/-. By exercising the option he
earns Rs (1070-1020) = Rs 50 per Put, which totals Rs 50,000/-. His net
income is Rs (50000-30000) = Rs 20,000.
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In the second price situation, the price is more in the spot market, so the
investor will not sell at a lower price by exercising the Put. He will have to
allow the Put option to expire unexercised. He looses the premium paid Rs
30,000.
Put Options-Long & Short Positions
When you expect prices to fall, then you take a long position by buying Puts.
You are bearish.
When you expect prices to rise, then you take a short position by selling Puts.
You are bullish.
CALL
OPTIONSPUT OPTIONS
If you expect a fall in price(Bearish) Short Long
If you expect a rise in price (Bullish) Long Short
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USES OF DERIVATIVES
Hedging
We have seen how one can take a view on the market with the help of index
futures. The other benefit of trading in index futures is to hedge your portfolio
against the risk of trading. In order to understand how one can protect his
portfolio from value erosion let us take an example.
Illustration:
Ram enters into a contract with Shyam that six months from now he will sell to
Shyam 10 dresses for Rs 4000. The cost of manufacturing for Ram is only Rs
1000 and he will make a profit of Rs 3000 if the sale is completed.
Cost (Rs) Selling
price
Profit
1000 4000 3000
However, Ram fears that Shyam may not honour his contract six months from
now. So he inserts a new clause in the contract that if Shyam fails to honour
the contract he will have to pay a penalty of Rs 1000. And if Shyam honour
the contract Ram will offer a discount of Rs 1000 as incentive.
As we see above if Shyam defaults Ram will get a penalty of Rs 1000 but he
will recover his initial investment. If Shyam honour the contract, Ram will still
make a profit of Rs 2000. Thus, Ram has hedged his risk against default and
protected his initial investment.
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The above example explains the concept of hedging. Let us try understanding
how one can use hedging in a real life scenario.
Stocks carry two types of risk company specific and market risk. While
company risk can be minimized by diversifying your portfolio market risk
cannot be diversified but has to be hedged. So how does one measure the
market risk? Market risk can be known from Beta.
Beta measures the relationship between movements of the index to the
movement of the stock. The beta measures the percentage impact on the
stock prices for 1% change in the index. Therefore, for a portfolio whose valuegoes down by 11% when the index goes down by 10%, the beta would be 1.1.
When the index increases by 10%, the value of the portfolio increases 11%.
The idea is to make beta of your portfolio zero to nullify your losses.
Hedging involves protecting an existing asset position from future adverse
price movements. In order to hedge a position, a market player needs to take
an equal and opposite position in the futures market to the one held in the
cash market. Every portfolio has a hidden exposure to the index, which isdenoted by the beta. Assuming you have a portfolio of Rs 1 million, which has
a beta of 1.2, you can factor a complete hedge by selling Rs 1.2 mn of S&P
CNX Nifty futures.
Speculation
Speculators are those who do not have any position on which they enter in
futures and options market. They only have a particular view on the market,
stock, commodity etc. In short, speculators put their money at risk in the hope
of profiting from an anticipated price change. They consider various factors
such as demand, supply, market positions, open interests, economic
fundamentals and other data to take their positions.
Illustration:
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Ram is a trader but has no time to track and analyze stocks. However, he
fancies his chances in predicting the market trend. So instead of buying
different stocks he buys Sensex Futures.
On May 1, 2001, he buys 100 Sensex futures @ 3600 on expectations that
the index will rise in future. On June 1, 2001, the Sensex rises to 4000 and at
that time he sells an equal number of contracts to close out his position.
Selling Price: 4000*100 = Rs 4,00,000
Less: Purchase Cost: 3600*100 = Rs 3,60,000
Net gain Rs 40,000
Ram has made a profit of Rs 40,000 by taking a call on the future value of the
Sensex. However, if the Sensex had fallen he would have made a loss.
Similarly, if would have been bearish he could have sold Sensex futures and
made a profit from a falling profit. In index futures players can have a long-
term view of the market up to at least 3 months.
Arbitrage
An arbitrageur is basically risk averse. He enters into those contracts were he
can earn risk less profits. When markets are imperfect, buying in one market
and simultaneously selling in other market gives risk less profit. Arbitrageurs
are always in the look out for such imperfections.
In the futures market one can take advantages of arbitrage opportunities by
buying from lower priced market and selling at the higher priced market. In
index futures arbitrage is possible between the spot market and the futures
market (NSE has provided special software for buying all 50 Nifty stocks in
the spot market).
Take the case of the NSE Nifty.
Assume that Nifty is at 1200 and 3 months Nifty futures is at 1300.
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The futures price of Nifty futures can be worked out by taking the interest cost
of 3 months into account.
If there is a difference then arbitrage opportunity exists.
Let us take the example of single stock to understand the concept better. If
Wipro is quoted at Rs 1000 per share and the 3 months futures of Wipro is Rs
1070 then one can purchase ITC at Rs 1000 in spot by borrowing @ 12%
annum for 3 months and sell Wipro futures for 3 months at Rs 1070.
Sale = 1070
Cost= 1000+30 = 1030
Arbitrage profit = 40
These kinds of imperfections continue to exist in the markets but one has to
be alert to the opportunities as they tend to get exhausted very fast.
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TRADING STRATEGIES WITH DERIVATIVES
Bull Market Strategies
Calls in bullish strategies
Puts in bullish strategies
Calls in a Bullish Strategy
An investor with a bullish market outlook should buy call options. If you expect
the market price of the underlying asset to rise, then you would rather have
the right to purchase at a specified price and sell later at a higher price than
have the obligation to deliver later at a higher price.
The investor's profit potential buying a call option is unlimited. The investor's
profit is the market price less the exercise price less the premium. The greater
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the increase in price of the underlying asset, the greater will be the investor's
profit.
The investor's potential loss is limited. Even if the market takes a drastic
decline in price levels, the holder of a call is under no obligation to exercise
the option. He may let the option expire worthless.
The investor breaks even when the market price equals the exercise price
plus the premium.
An increase in volatility will increase the value of your call and increase your
return. Because of the increased likelihood that the option will become in- the-
money, an increase in the underlying volatility (before expiration), will increase
the value of a long options position. As an option holder, your return will also
increase.
A simple example will illustrate the above:
Suppose there is a call option with a strike price of Rs 2000 and the option
premium is Rs 100. The option will be exercised only if the value of the
underlying is greater than Rs 2000 (the strike price). If the buyer exercises the
call at Rs 2200 then his gain will be Rs 200. However, this would not be his
actual gain for that he will have to deduct the Rs 100 (premium) he has paid.
The profit can be derived as follows:
Profit = Market price - Exercise price Premiumor
Profit = Market price Strike price Premium.
2200 2000 100 = Rs 100
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Puts in a Bullish Strategy
An investor with a bullish market outlook can also go short on a Put option.
Basically, an investor anticipating a bull market could write Put options. If the
market price increases and puts become out-of-the-money, investors with
long put positions will let their options expire worthless.
By writing Puts, profit potential is limited. A Put writer profits when the price of
the underlying asset increases and the option expires worthless. The
maximum profit is limited to the premium received.
However, the potential loss is unlimited. Because a short put position holder
has an obligation to purchase if exercised. He will be exposed to potentially
large losses if the market moves against his position and declines.
The break-even point occurs when the market price equals the exercise price:
minus the premium. At any price less than the exercise price minus the
premium, the investor loses money on the transaction. At higher prices, his
option is profitable.
An increase in volatility will increase the value of your put and decrease your
return. As an option writer, the higher price you will be forced to pay in order
to buy back the option at a later date, lower is the return.
Bear Market Strategies
Puts in bearish strategies
Calls in bearish strategies
Puts in a Bearish Strategy
When you purchase a put you are long and want the market to fall. A put
option is a bearish position. It will increase in value if the market falls. An
investor with a bearish market outlook shall buy put options. By purchasing
put options, the trader has the right to choose whether to sell the underlying
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asset at the exercise price. In a falling market, this choice is preferable to
being obligated to buy the underlying at a price higher.
An investor's profit potential is practically unlimited. The higher the fall in price
of the underlying asset, higher the profits.
The investor's potential loss is limited. If the price of the underlying asset rises
instead of falling as the investor has anticipated, he may let the option expire
worthless. At the most, he may lose the premium for the option.
The trader's breakeven point is the exercise price minus the premium. To
profit, the market price must be below the exercise price. Since the trader has
paid a premium he must recover the premium he paid for the option.
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An increase in volatility will increase the value of your put and increase your
return. An increase in volatility will make it more likely that the price of the
underlying instrument will move. This increases the value of the option.
Calls in a Bearish Strategy
Another option for a bearish investor is to go short on a call with the intent to
purchase it back in the future. By selling a call, you have a net short position
and needs to be bought back before expiration and cancel out your position.
For this an investor needs to write a call option. If the market price falls, long
call holders will let their out-of-the-money options expire worthless, because
they could purchase the underlying asset at the lower market price.
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The investor's profit potential is limited because the trader's maximum profit is
limited to the premium received for writing the option.
Here the loss potential is unlimited because a short call position holder has an
obligation to sell if exercised; he will be exposed to potentially large losses if
the market rises against his position.
The investor breaks even when the market price equals the exercise price:
plus the premium. At any price greater than the exercise price plus the
premium, the trader is losing money. When the market price equals the
exercise price plus the premium, the trader breaks even.
An increase in volatility will increase the value of your call and decrease your
return.
When the option writer has to buy back the option in order to cancel out his
position, he will be forced to pay a higher price due to the increased value of
the calls.
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The investor's profit potential is limited. If the market remains stable, traders
long out-of-the-money calls or puts will let their options expire worthless.
Writers of these options will not have be called to deliver and will profit from
the sum of the premiums received.
The investor's potential loss is unlimited. Should the price of the underlying
rise or fall, the writer of a call or put would have to deliver, exposing himself to
unlimited loss if he has to deliver on the call and practically unlimited loss if on
the put.
The breakeven points occur when the market price at expiration equals the
exercise price plus the premium and minus the premium. The trader is short
two positions and thus, two breakeven points; One for the call (common
exercise price plus the premiums paid), and one for the put (common exercise
price minus the premiums paid).
Strangles in a Stable Market Outlook
A strangle is similar to a straddle, except that the call and the put have
different exercise prices. Usually, both the call and the put are out-of-the-
money.
To "buy a strangle" is to purchase a call and a put with the same expiration
date, but different exercise prices. Usually the call strike price is higher than
the put strike price.
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To "sell a strangle" is to write a call and a put with the same expiration date,
but different exercise prices.
A trader, viewing a market as stable, should: write strangles.
A "strangle sale" allows the trader to profit from a stable market.
The investor's profit potential is: unlimited.
If the market remains stable, investors having out-of-the-money long put or
long call positions will let their options expire worthless.
The investor's potential loss is: unlimited.
If the price of the underlying interest rises or falls instead of remaining stable
as the trader anticipated, he will have to deliver on the call or the put.
The breakeven points occur when market price at expiration equals...the high
exercise price plus the premium and the low exercise price minus the
premium.
The trader is short two positions and thus, two breakeven points. One for the
call (high exercise price plus the premiums paid), and one for the put (low
exercise price minus the premiums paid).
Why would a trader choose to sell a strangle rather than a straddle?
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The risk is lower with a strangle. Although the seller gives up a substantial
amount of potential profit by selling a strangle rather than a straddle, he also
holds less risk. Notice that the strangle requires more of a price move in both
directions before it begins to lose money.
Long Butterfly Call Spread Strategy
The long butterfly call spread is a combination of a bull spread and a bear
spread, utilizing calls and three different exercise prices.
A long butterfly call spread involves:
Buying a call with a low exercise price,
Writing two calls with a mid-range exercise price,
Buying a call with a high exercise price.
To put on the September 40-45-50 long butterfly, you: buy the 40 and 50
strike and sell two 45 strikes.
This spread is put on by purchasing one each of the outside strikes and
selling two of the inside strike. To put on a short butterfly, you do just the
opposite.
The investor's profit potential is limited.
Maximum profit is attained when the market price of the underlying interest
equals the mid-range exercise price (if the exercise prices are symmetrical).
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The investor's potential loss is limited.
The maximum loss is limited to the net premium paid and is realized when the
market price of the underlying asset is higher than the high exercise price or
lower than the low exercise price.
The breakeven points occur when the market price at expiration equals ... the
high exercise price minus the premium and the low exercise price plus the
premium. The strategy is profitable when the market price is between the low
exercise price plus the net premium and the high exercise price minus the net
premium.
PRICING OF OPTIONS
Options are used as risk management tools and the valuation or pricing of the
instruments is a careful balance of market factors.
There are four major factors affecting the Option premium:
Price of Underlying
Time to Expiry
Exercise Price Time to Maturity
Volatility of the Underlying
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And two less important factors:
Short-Term Interest Rates
Dividends
The Intrinsic Value of an Option
The intrinsic value of an option is defined as the amount by which an option is
in-the-money or the immediate exercise value of the option when the
underlying position is marked-to-market.
For a call option: Intrinsic Value = Spot Price - Strike Price
For a put option: Intrinsic Value = Strike Price - Spot Price
The intrinsic value of an option must be positive or zero. It cannot be negative.
For a call option, the strike price must be less than the price of the underlying
asset for the call to have an intrinsic value greater than 0. For a put option, the
strike price must be greater than the underlying asset price for it to have
intrinsic value.
Price of underlying
The premium is affected by the price movements in the underlying instrument.
For Call options the right to buy the underlying at a fixed strike price as
the underlying price rises so does its premium. As the underlying assets price
falls so does the cost of the option premium.
For Put options the right to sell the underlying at a fixed strike price as
the underlying price rises, the premium falls; as the underlying price falls the
premium cost rises.
The Time Value of an Option
Generally, the longer the time remaining until an options expiration, the
higher its premium will be. This is because the longer an options lifetime,
greater is the possibility that the underlying share price might move so as to
make the option in-the-money. All other factors affecting an options price
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remaining the same, the time value portion of an options premium will
decrease (or decay) with the passage of time.
Note: This time decay increases rapidly in the last several weeks of an
options life. When an option expires in-the-money, it is generally worth only
its intrinsic value.
Volatility
Volatility is the tendency of the underlying securitys market price to fluctuate
either up or down. It reflects a price changes magnitude; it does not imply a
bias toward price movement in one direction or the other. Thus, it is a major
factor in determining an options premium. The higher the volatility of the
underlying stock, the higher the premium because there is a greater possibility
that the option will move in-the-money. Generally, as the volatility of an under-
lying stock increases, the premiums of both calls and puts overlying that stock
increase, and vice versa.
Higher volatility=Higher premium
Lower volatility = Lower premium
Interest rates
In general interest rates have the least influence on options and equate
approximately to the cost of carry of a futures contract. If the size of the
options contract is very large, then this factor may take on some importance.
All other factors being equal as interest rates rise, premium costs fall and vice
versa. The relationship can be thought of as an opportunity cost. In order tobuy an option, the buyer must either borrow funds or use funds on deposit.
Either way the buyer incurs an interest rate cost. If interest rates are rising,
then the opportunity cost of buying options increases and to compensate the
buyer premium costs fall. Why should the buyer be compensated? Because
the option writer receiving the premium can place the funds on deposit and
receive more interest than was previously anticipated. The situation is
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reversed when interest rates fall premiums rise. This time it is the writer who
needs to be compensated.
The Black & Scholes Model
The Black & Scholes model was published in 1973 by Fisher Black and Myron
Scholes. It is one of the most popular options pricing models. It is noted for its
relative simplicity and its fast mode of calculation: unlike the binomial model, it
does not rely on calculation by iteration.
The Black-Scholes model is used to calculate a theoretical call price (ignoring
dividends paid during the life of the option) using the five key determinants of
an option's price: stock price, strike price, volatility, time to expiration, and
short-term (risk free) interest rate.
The original formula for calculating the theoretical option price (OP) is as
follows:
Where:
The variables are:
S = stock price
X = strike price
t = time remaining until expiration, expressed as a percent of a year
r = current continuously compounded risk-free interest rate
v = annual volatility of stock price (the standard deviation of the short-term
returns over one year).
ln = natural logarithm
N(x) = standard normal cumulative distribution function
e = the exponential function
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Lognormal distribution: The model is based on a lognormal distribution of
stock prices, as opposed to a normal, or bell-shaped, distribution. The
lognormal distribution allows for a stock price distribution of between zero and
infinity (ie no negative prices) and has an upward bias (representing the fact
that a stock price can only drop 100 per cent but can rise by more than 100
per cent).
Risk-neutral valuation: The expected rate of return of the stock (i.e. the
expected rate of growth of the underlying asset which equals the risk free rate
plus a risk premium) is not one of the variables in the Black-Scholes model (or
any other model for option valuation). The important implication is that the
price of an option is completely independent of the expected growth of the
underlying asset. Thus, while any two investors may strongly disagree on the
rate of return they expect on a stock they will, given agreement to the
assumptions of volatility and the risk free rate, always agree on the fair price
of the option on that underlying asset.
The key concept underlying the valuation of all derivatives -- the fact that price
of an option is independent of the risk preferences of investors -- is called risk-
neutral valuation. It means that all derivatives can be valued by assuming that
the return from their underlying assets is the risk free rate.
Limitation: Dividends are ignored in the basic Black-Scholes formula, but
there are a number of widely used adaptations to the original formula, which I
use in my models, which enable it to handle both discrete and continuous
dividends accurately.
However, despite these adaptations the Black-Scholes model has one major
limitation: it cannot be used to accurately price options with an American-style
exercise as it only calculates the option price at one point in time -- at
expiration. It does not consider the steps along the way where there could be
the possibility of early exercise of an American option.
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As all exchange traded equity options have American-style exercise (ie they
can be exercised at any time as opposed to European options which can only
be exercised at expiration) this is a significant limitation.
The exception to this is an American call on a non-dividend paying asset. In
this case the call is always worth the same as its European equivalent as
there is never any advantage in exercising early.
Advantage: The main advantage of the Black-Scholes model is speed -- it
lets you calculate a very large number of option prices in a very short time.
Since, high accuracy is not critical for American option pricing (eg whenanimating a chart to show the effects of time decay) using Black-Scholes is a
good option. But, the option of using the binomial model is also advisable for
the relatively few pricing and profitability numbers where accuracy may be
important and speed is irrelevant. You can experiment with the Black-Scholes
model using on-line options pricing calculator.
The Binomial Model
The binomial model is an options pricing model which was developed by
William Sharpe in 1978. Today, one finds a large variety of pricing models
which differ according to their hypotheses or the underlying instruments upon
which they are based (stock options, currency options, options on interest
rates).
The binomial model breaks down the time to expiration into potentially a very
large number of time intervals, or steps. A tree of stock prices is initially
produced working forward from the present to expiration. At each step it is
assumed that the stock price will move up or down by an amount calculated
using volatility and time to expiration. This produces a binomial distribution, or
recombining tree, of underlying stock prices. The tree represents all the
possible paths that the stock price could take during the life of the option.
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At the end of the tree -- i.e. at expiration of the option -- all the terminal option
prices for each of the final possible stock prices are known as they simply
equal their intrinsic values.
Next the option prices at each step of the tree are calculated working back
from expiration to the present. The option prices at each step are used to
derive the option prices at the next step of the tree using risk neutral valuation
based on the probabilities of the stock prices moving up or down, the risk free
rate and the time interval of each step. Any adjustments to stock prices (at an
ex-dividend date) or option prices (as a result of early exercise of American
options) are worked into the calculations at the required point in time. At the
top of the tree you are left with one option price.
Advantage:
The big advantage the binomial model has over the Black-Scholes model is
that it can be used to accurately price American options. This is because, with
the binomial model it's possible to check at every point in an option's life (ie at
every step of the binomial tree) for the possibility of early exercise (eg where,due to eg a dividend, or a put being deeply in the money the option price at
that point is less than the its intrinsic value).
Where an early exercise point is found it is assumed that the option holder
would elect to exercise and the option price can be adjusted to equal the
intrinsic value at that point. This then flows into the calculations higher up the
tree and so on.
Limitation:
As mentioned before the main disadvantage of the binomial model is its
relatively slow speed. It's great for half a dozen calculations at a time but even
with today's fastest PCs it's not a practical solution for the calculation of
thousands of prices in a few seconds which is what's required for the
production of the animated charts in my strategy evaluation model.
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REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR DERIVATIVESMARKET IN INDIA
The trading of derivatives is governed by the provisions contained in the
SC(R)A, the SEBI Act, the rules and regulations framed there under and the
rules and byelaws of stock exchanges.
Securities Contracts(Regulation) Act, 1956 SC(R)A aims at preventing
undesirable transactions in securities by regulating the business of dealing
therein and by providing for certain other matters connected therewith. This is
the principal Act, which governs the trading of securities in India. The term
securities has been defined in the SC(R)A. As per Section 2(h), the
Securities include:
1. Shares, scrip, stocks, bonds, debentures, debenture stock or other
marketable securities of a like nature in or of any incorporated company or
other body corporate
2. Derivative
3. Units or any other instrument issued by any collective investment scheme
to the investors in such schemes
4. Government securities
5. Such other instruments as may be declared by the Central Government to
be securities
6. Rights or interests in securities.
Regulation for Derivatives Trading
SEBI set up a 24-member committee under the Chairmanship of
Dr.L.C.Gupta to develop the appropriate regulatory framework for derivatives
trading in India. The committee submitted its report in March 1998. On May
11, 1998 SEBI accepted the recommendations of the committee and
approved the phased introduction of derivatives trading in India beginning with
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stock index futures. SEBI also approved the suggestive bye -laws
recommended by the committee for regulation and control of trading and
settlement of derivatives contracts. The provisions in the SC(R)A and the
regulatory framework developed there under govern trading in securities. The
amendment of the SC(R)A to include derivatives within the ambit of
securities in the SC(R)A made trading in derivatives possible within the
framework of that Act.
1. Any Exchange fulfilling the eligibility criteria as prescribed in the LC Gupta
committee report may apply to SEBI for grant of recognition under Section 4
of the SC(R)A, 1956 to start trading derivatives. The derivatives
exchange/segment should have a separate governing council and
representation of trading/clearing members shall be limited to maximum of
40% of the total members of the governing council. The exchange shall
regulate the sales practices of its members and will obtain prior approval of
SEBI before start of trading in any derivative contract.
2. The Exchange shall have minimum 50 members.
3. The members of an existing segment of the exchange will not automatically
become the members of derivative segment. The members of the derivative
segment need to fulfill the eligibility conditions as laid down by the LC Gupta
committee.
4. The clearing and settlement of derivatives trades shall be through a SEBI
approved clearing corporation/house. Clearing corporations/houses complying
with the eligibility conditions as laid down by the committee have to apply to
SEBI for grant of approval.
5. Derivative brokers/dealers and clearing members are required to seek
registration from SEBI. This is in addition to their registration as brokers of
existing stock exchanges. The minimum networth for clearing members of the
derivatives clearing corporation/house shall be Rs.300 Lakh. The networth of
the member shall be computed as follows:
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Capital + Free reserves
Less non-allowable assets viz.
(a) Fixed assets
(b) Pledged securities
(c) Members card
(d) Non-allowable securities (unlisted securities)
(e) Bad deliveries
(f) Doubtful debts and advances
(g) Prepaid expenses
(h) Intangible assets
(i) 30% marketable securities
6. The minimum contract value shall not be less than Rs.2 Lakh. Exchanges
should also submit details of the futures contract they propose to introduce.
7. The initial margin requirement, exposure limits linked to capital adequacy
and margin demands related to the risk of loss on the position shall be
prescribed by SEBI/Exchange from time to time.
8. The L.C.Gupta committee report requires strict enforcement of Know your
customer rule and requires that every client shall be registered with the
derivatives broker. The members of the derivatives segment are also required
to make their clients aware of the risks involved in derivatives trading byissuing to the client the Risk Disclosure Document and obtain a copy of the
same duly signed by the client.
9. The trading members are required to have qualified approved user and
sales person who have passed a certification programme approved by SEBI.
NSEs Certification in Financial Markets
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A critical element of financial sector reforms is the development of a pool of
human resources having right skills and expertise to provide quality
intermediation services in each segment of the market. In order to dispense
quality intermediation, personnel providing services need to possess requisite
skills and knowledge. This is generally achieved through a system of testing
and certification. Such testing and certification has assumed added
significance in India as there is no formal education/training on financial
markets, especially in the area of operations. Taking into account international
experience and needs of the Indian financial market, NSE offers NCFM
(NSEs Certification in Financial Markets) to test practical knowledge and
skills that are required to operate in financial markets in a very secure and
unbiased manner and to certify personnel with a view to improve quality of
intermediation. NCFM offers a comprehensive range of modules covering
many different areas in finance including a module on derivatives. The module
on derivatives has been recognized by SEBI. SEBI requires that derivative
brokers/dealers and sales persons must mandatory pass this module of the
NCFM.
Regulation for Clearing and Settlement
1. The LC Gupta committee has recommended that the clearing corporation
must interpose itself between both legs of every trade, becoming the legal
counterparty to both or alternatively should provide an unconditional
guarantee for settlement of all trades.
2. The clearing corporation should ensure that none of the Board membershas trading interests.
3. The definition of net-worth as prescribed by SEBI needs to be incorporated
in the application/regulations of the clearing corporation.
4. The regulations relating to arbitration need to be incorporated in the
clearing corporations regulations.
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5. Specific provision/chapter relating to declaration of default must be
incorporated by the clearing corporation in its regulations.
6. The regulations relating to investor protection fund for the derivatives
market must be included in the clearing corporation application/regulations.
7. The clearing corporation should have the capabilities to segregate
upfront/initial margins deposited by clearing members for trades on their own
account and on account of his clients. The clearing corporation shall hold the
clients margin money in trust for the clients purposes only and should not
allow its diversion for any other purpose. This condition must be incorporatedin the clearing corporation regulations.
8. The clearing member shall collect margins from his constituents
(clients/trading members). He shall clear and settle deals in derivative
contracts on behalf of the constituents only on the receipt of such minimum
margin.
9. Exposure limits based on the value at risk concept will be used and the
exposure limits will be continuously monitored. These shall be within the limits
prescribed by SEBI from time to time.
10. The clearing corporation must lay down a procedure for periodic review of
the net worth of its members.
11. The clearing corporation must inform SEBI how it proposes to monitor the
exposure of its members in the underlying market.
12. Any changes in the bye-laws, rules or regulations which are coveredunder the Suggestive byelaws for regu lations and control of trading and
settlement of derivatives contracts would require prior approval of SEBI.
Position limits
Position limits have been specified by SEBI at trading member, client, market
and FII levels respectively.
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Trading member position limits
There is a position limit in derivative contracts on an index of 15% of the open
interest or Rs.100 Crore, whichever is higher. The position limit in derivative
contracts on an individual stock is 7.5% of the open interest in that underlying
on the exchange or Rs.50 Crore, whichever is higher.
Once a member, in a particular underlying reaches the position limit then he is
permitted to take only offsetting positions (which result in lowering the open
position of the member) in derivative contracts on such underlying.
Client level position limits
On index based derivative contracts, at the client level there is a self
disclosure requirement as follows: Any person or persons acting in concert
who together own 15% or more of the open interest in all futures and option
contracts on the same index are required to report this fact to the clearing
corporation and failure