Projecting FIA Data With FVS and ORGANON

Greg Latta

Oregon State University

College of Forest Resources

A Cry For Help(or Discussion)

RegardingProjecting FIA Data With FVS

and ORGANON

Greg Latta

Background

• Regional and Nation forest sector economics models need timber supply representation.

• Look at moving from a strata based inventory/harvest scheduler to more detail.

• FIA plot level Growth and Yield modeling as “Supply Curves” in Economic Models

Nationwide G&Y Modeling

• All FIA plots would be modeled.

• That lead to FVS as G&Y model.

• If we used FVS in the PNW what differences might we expect from recent regional work.

A Comparison

• We decided to grow all FIA private forestland plots (condition classes) in both FVS and ORGANON and make a comparison.

• How to do this and keep them anywhere near comparable?

Models Used

• ORGANON DLL (2 versions)– Both SW and SMC dll’s dated 7/10/2002

• FVS (3 versions)– PNW Coast dated 12/6/2002– W Cascades dated 12/6/2002– Klamath Mt. Dated 12/13/2002

Approach #1

• Use same tree lists

• Use same volume equations

• Use same trees for site index computations

• SET MAX SDI the same.

Western Oregon Hardwood BF Volumes

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5.00

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1997

2007

2017

2027

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Bil

lio

ns

ORG

FVS

Western Oregon Softwood BF Volumes

0.00

100.00

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600.00

1997

2007

2017

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Bil

lio

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ORG

FVS

Softwood BF For Stands 65 Years Old Plus

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1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072 2077 2082 2087 2092 2097

Bill

ion

s

FVS KLAM

ORG KLAM

FVS OCST

ORG OCST

FVS WCASC

ORG WCASC

FVS WCST

ORG WCST

Approach #2

• Use same tree lists

• Use same volume equations

• Use same trees for site index computations

• SET FVS MAX BA to ORGANON MAX BA.

Western Oregon Hardwood BF Volumes

05

1015202530354045

1997

2007

2017

2027

2037

2047

2057

2067

2077

2087

2097

Bil

lio

ns

ORG

FVS

Western Oregon Softwood BF Volumes

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997

2007

2017

2027

2037

2047

2057

2067

2077

2087

2097

Bil

lio

ns

ORG

FVS

Possible Issues

• Hardwoods

• Large tree recruitment

• Long Rotations

• Carbon Sequestration

So what do you want it to be???

Bonus SlidesHere I’ll show 3 stand level info. I chose 3 young doug-fir stands. I will have a SVS stand “picture” as well as boardfoot volumes (hardwood and softwood—this may seem silly but the program graphs both and I am just doing a screen capture), cubic foot volumes, softwood QMD, total basal area per acre and stand density index.

Stand 1 -- is FIA county 41, plot 36, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 405 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 160. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and PN FVS.

Stand 2 -- is FIA county 39, plot 32, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 395 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 131 and Cochran site index is 180. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and WC FVS.

Stand 3 -- is FIA county 33, plot 83, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 490 doug-fir per acre. The HannScrivani site index is 86 and King site index is 85. This stand is grown in the SWO ORGANON and NC FVS.

Stand 1 SVS representation

Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 2

The program scales the

graphs so this one has a different

scale. Sorry.

Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2

Stand 2 SVS representation

Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 2

Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2

Stand 3 SVS representation

Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 2

Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2

I checked the keyword file and

this guy had a BAMAX of 381. In the output file there was a note

that the forest max of 850 had been exceeded and so 850 was the SDI used for Doug-fir

Super Bonus Slide - I had it so here it is. These are the SDI and Basal area per acre values over time for the control plots at several LOGS installations. Does SDI peak and stay there or does it come down? Does BA/acre keep going up? Who knows, but look

at all the pretty colors.