projections of air quality in europe: a two-way...

PROJECTIONS OF AIR QUALITY IN EUROPE:A TWO-WAY APPROACH

1 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable, Development, National Observatory

of Athens, Greece2 Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University

of Athens, Greece

K.V. VAROTSOS1, 2, C. GIANNAKOPOULOS1, M. TOMBROU2

2 approaches

based on empirical relations between ozone and atmospheric historical measurementscombined with future projections

based on climate-chemical models for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AIR-QUALITY

(Jacob and Winner, 2009)

MOTIVE:

CLIMATE CHANGEMETEOROLOGICAL

CONDITIONSAIR-QUALITY

(Ο3)

Question : Potential increase of Tmax (Climate Change) Ο3 ?

1st Approach

Recent Studies:

Ο3 sensitivity to meteorology

• temperature, (Jacob et al., 1993;Silmann et al., 1995)• solar radiation, (Ordonez et al., 2005)• number of days since the last frontal passage,

(Wise and Comrie, 2005)• humidity , (Camalier et al., 2007)• frequency of summertime mid latitude cyclones

(Leibensperger et al., 2008)

Data– Study domain

Field measurementsOzone:daily maximum of 8-h running average concentrations from 47 non-urban stations in Europe (EMEP)

Temperature: 2 periods of daily maximum surface temperatures from the E-OBS gridded dataset (Gridded dataset derived through interpolation of station data), for each ozone station closest grid point.

• 1961-1990, for validation purposes with the RACMO2 model• same period to each ozone site year range observations

Regional Climate Model -RACMO2 (KNMI, ENSEMBLES)Simulation periods for each ozone station closest grid point.

• 1961-1990 period for evaluating the model performance compared to thegridded maximum temperatures

• 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario .

E-OBS gridded dataset is on the same grid with the Regional Climate Model (horizontal resolution 22km x 22km

1st Approach

Table 1.Stations and the year range used in the analysis. See location of the

stations in Fig. 1

Figure. Locations of the ozone stations (red) and their closest grid points (black) for

temperature used in the analysis. See the correspondence between numbers and names of

the stations in Table 1. For stations where only black squares are visible the station location

coincides with the closest grid point of the gridded maximum temperature

Station Code Station Name Altitude (m a.s.l) Year Range Station Type

1.AT02 Illmitz 117 1995-2004 rural

2.AT04 St. Koloman 851 1995-2004 -

3.AT05 Achenkirch 960 1995-2004 mountaineous

4.AT30 Pillersdorf 315 1995-2004 rural

5.AT32 Sulzberg 1020 1995-2004 -

6.AT33 Stolzalpe 1302 1995-2004 -

7.AT45 Dunkelsteinerwald 320 1995-2004 -

8.AT46 Gaenserndorf 146 1995-2004 -

9.BE01 Offagne 420 1991-2002 -

10.BE32 Eupen 295 1991-2002 -

11.BE35 Vezin 160 1991-2002 -

12.CH02 Payerne 489 1993-2003 rural

13.CH03 Tänikon 539 1993-2003 rural

14.DE02 Langenbrügge 74 1992-2001 forestry

15.DE03 Schauinsland 1205 1992-2001 forestry

16.DE04 Deuselbach 480 1992-2001 rural

17.DE05 Brotjacklriegel 1016 1992-2001 forestry

18.DE07 Neuglobsow 62 1992-2001 forestry

19.DE08 Schmücke 937 1992-2001 forestry

20.DE12 Bassum 52 1992-2001 rural

21.DE26 Ueckermünde 1 1992-2001 rural

22.DE35 Lückendorf 490 1992-2001 rural

23.ES01 Toledo 917 1993-2000 rural

24.ES04 Logrono 370 1993-2000 rural

25.FR08 Donon 775 1998-2005 forestry

26.FR09 Revin 390 1998-2005 forestry

27.FR13 Peyrusse Vieille 236 1998-2005 rural

28.BG02 Eskdalemuir 243 1991-2002 rural

29.BG06 Lough Navar 126 1991-2002 rural

30.BG13 Yarner Wood 119 1991-2002 rural

31.BG14 High Muffles 267 1991-2002 rural

32.BG15 Strathvaich Dam 270 1991-2002 rural

33.BG31 Aston Hill 370 1991-2002 rural

34.BG32 Bottesford 32 1991-2002 rural

35.BG33 Bush 180 1991-2002 forestry

36.BG36 Harwell 137 1991-2002 rural

37.BG37 Ladybower 420 1991-2002 rural

38.BG39 Sibton 46 1991-2002 rural

39.GR01 Aliartos 110 1996-2005 rural

40.IT01 Montelibretti 48 1995-2004 -

41.IT04 Ispra 209 1995-2004 rural

42.NL09 Kollumerwaard 1 1991-2002 -

43.NL10 Vreedepeel 5 1991-2002 -

44.PL02 Jarczew 180 1995-2004 rural

45.PL03 Sniezka 1604 1995-2004 -

46.PL04 Leba 2 1995-2004 rural

47.PL05 Diabla Gora 157 1995-2004 rural

METHODOLOGY

• Identify the ‘representative stations’ using rotated PCA and correlation analysis betweenthe daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations and the observed daily maximumtemperature

• Derive threshold temperature for ozone exceedances.

• Construct an empirical-statistical model, based on the probability distribution of dailymaximum 8-h average ozone concentration with daily maximum temperature.

Bins of 1oC above the pre-calculated threshold for temperature and bins of 5 ppb for ozoneconcentration, are calculated.

• Evaluate the spatial temperature behavior of RACMO2 vs EOBS for the 1961-1990

• Apply the empirical statistical model with the future modeled temperatures.

1st Approach

exceedance days are days with daily maximum 8-h average >= 60 ppb

OZONE EXCEEDANCE SEASON – PCA – ‘REPRESENATIVE STATIONS’

• PCA implemented on the ozone exceedance season (1 April- 30 September)

• 5 PCs (5 sub regions) explaining ~71% of the variability in the daily maximum 8-h average ozoneconcentrations

PC

Number

Sub

region

Variance

explained

(%)

Mean

NOx

emissions

NO2

Equivale

nts (Mg)

Mean

NMVOC

emissions

(Mg)

Mean

ozone

exceedan

ce days

(%)

1 South

east

37.21 3241 3975 14

2 North

west

12.45 5041 10268 2

3 South

west

11.13 3431 4963 13

4 Central

north

6.51 3831 3656 8

5 North

east

3.53 2465 1922 8

Table 2. List of the sub regions identified by PCA, variance

explained by each principal component, mean NOx, mean

NMVOC and mean percentage ozone exceedance days for the

stations constituting each sub region.

• 2 ‘representative stations’ from each sub region selection based on communality(red X) and correlation coefficient between ozone and temperature (black X)

• meteorology plays a dominant role regarding the stations grouping

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

X

ESTIMATED FUTURE O3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONFUTURE EXCEEDANCE DAYS

Southeast Subregion

Northwest Subregion

Southwest Subregion

Centralnorth Subregion


Stations/Subregion Observed exccedances(days/year)

2021-2050exccedances

changes(days/year)

2021-205090th percentile

Tmaxchanges (oC)

2071-2100exccedances

changes(days/year)

2071-201090th percentile

Tmaxchanges (oC)

AT30 / South East ~ 50 1.9 +3.68 +5.2 5.92IT01 / South East ~ 64 +10.8 +3.06 +24.1 +8.43GB31/North West ~ 4 - +6.15 - +7.26GB36/North West ~ 9 +5.9 +3.6 +9.4 +7.84ES04/South West ~31 +7.5 +3.89 +14.7 +4.11CH03/South west ~45 -4.2 +0.12 + 2.8 +5.53

DE02/Central North ~ 32 -3.8 -0.74 - +0.59DE04/Central North ~ 39 -8.9 -1.80 -1.6 +3.38

PL04/North East ~ 13 +1.1 +1.06 +2.8 + 2.42DE07/NorthEast ~ 25 - +0.31 + 4.2 +4.65

Table 3. Changes for Temperatures higher than the threshold temperatures.

Northeast Subregion


GISS-GEOS CHEM GLOBAL GCM-CTM MODELLING SYSTEM2nd Approach

Simulation scenarios: (1) present-day climate and emissions, (2) 2050 climate and present-dayanthropogenic emissions, (3) 2050 climate and 2050 anthropogenic emissions

Each case was run for 3 years (1999 –2001 or 2049 – 2051) following 1 year of model spin-up

Results are from 3 yr average values

NASA GISS GCM 3 : horizontal resolution of 4°x 5°, 23 vertical

layers (surface to 0.002 hPa)

meteorological inputs

GEOS-Chem CTM

A1B emissions scenario

anthropogenic emission inventories for 1998,natural emissions of ozone precursors are computed

locally within the modelEmissions

(Wu et al., 2008) present-day GEOS-Chem emission inventories are projected using

spatial growth factors for various categories of anthropogenic emissions

present

future

(http://www.as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/geos/)

EUROPE GRID COVERAGE

Methodology

For each grid point 4x5 (lat,lon)

Ozone: average of all ozone daily maximum 8-h average concentrations from the stations located at each 4x5 grid box

Temperature: : average of all daily maximum temperatures (EOBS) from the

1st closest grid point to each ozone station

GISS/GEOS CHEM EVALUATION WITH OBSERVATIONS

Selected grid: 131 ozone stations – 83EOBS grid points


Correlation coefficients and bootstrap ci

O3 (obs)- O3(Giss/Geos-chem) Tmax(obs)-Tmax(Giss/Geos-chem)

• High correlationsO3 (obs)- O3(Giss/Geos-chem) Tmax(obs)-Tmax(Giss/Geos-chem)

• stronger correlation in temperature


measured and modelled daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations

measured and modelled daily Tmax

model overestimates in the warm period model mainly underestimates compared to the observations

Variable MEANO MEANES RMSE MEAN

BIAS

MEAN

ERROR

O3 37.40

ppb

39.92

ppb

8.67

ppb

2.51

ppb

6.66

ppb

Tmax 15.69oC 11.86oC 5.17oC -3.85oC 4.38oC


measured and modelled daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations

measured and modelled daily Tmaxafter bias correction

T = mean (Tobs) + (std(Tobs)/std(Tmod))*(Tmod -mean(Tmod)(Leander and Buishand, 2007)

model overestimates in the warm period model mainly underestimates compared to the observations

Variable MEANO MEANES RMSE MEAN

BIAS

MEAN

ERROR

O3 37.40 ppb 39.92 ppb 8.67 ppb 2.51 ppb 6.66

ppb

Tmax 15.69oC 11.86oC 5.17oC -3.85oC 4.38oC

T 15.69oC 2.91oC -1oC 2.33oC

O3 – T RELATIONSHIP

• stronger relationwithin the model

Threshold Tmax=17 oC

FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Obs Theoretical GISS/GEOS-

CHEM

2000

GISS/GEOS-

CHEM

2050/w

2000

emissions

GISS/GEOS-

CHEM

2050/w

2050

emissions

Exceedance

days

16 ~22.5 (+6.5) 24 31 (+7) 58 (+34)

• similar shape pattern for bothapproaches (statistical anddynamical)

• ozone exceedance days deviate ~ 10 days between the twoapproaches

• higher increase of about 1 month for 2050 climate and emissions

AVERAGE OZONE CONCENTRATIONS (exceedance season)

GISS/GEOS CHEM RESULTS

Present scenario 2050 w/2000 emissions2050 w/2050 emissions

2050 w/2000 emissions – present scenario


AVERAGE OF OZONE EXCEEDANCE DAYS

GISS/GEOS CHEM RESULTS

Present scenario 2050 w/2000 emissions 2050 w/2050 emissions



SUMMARY

1st APPROACH

• Future ozone probability distributions follow the shape pattern of the observed.

• A temperature increase of about 26% in the future could lead to an increase of about 24 extra ozone exceedance days/year at polluted stations.

• Although this relation can been seen as a starting point for how the future atmosphere will behave it contain a caveat: it assumes constant emissions of ozone precursors

2ndAPPROACH Giss/Geos-Chem global GCM-CTM modelling system

• High correlation coefficients was found between the modelling system and observations for both O3 and Tmax

• model mainly underestimates Tmax compared to the observations

• model overestimates O3 compared to the observations especially in the warm months

• results from the future scenarios simulations revealed the most profound impact of climate change will take place in Southern Europe

Empirical statistical model based on the O3 – T relation by means of probability distributions

FUTURE WORK

• Examine GISS meteorology• update emissions inventories• simulations with a finer resolution and/or under different future emissions

scenarios

NKUA-NOA Group Poster by Anna Protonotariou

Title: European CO budget : regional sources and its links with synoptic circulation and long range transport

Extra slides

Relationship of ozone exceedance days with daily maximum temperature.

Figure. Probability that the daily maximum 8-h average

ozone will exceed 60 ppb for a given daily maximum

temperature for the stations selected from each sub

region.

Tthresh P(ozone exceedance days) > 4%

Evaluation of the Regional Climate Model using gridded temperature

observationsSpatial Evaluation

Figure Difference between the RCM and the EOBS for the 1961-1990 period.

•small underestimation on the west

•small overestimation on the east

RACMO2 - EOBS

Regional Climate Model Future Simulations

Figure. Mean differences between the 2021-2050 future simulation (left), the 2071-2100 future simulation (right) and the 1961-1990period for the Average Annual maximum temperature.

Both periods are warmer compared to the 1961-1990 period with the 2071-2100 period

exhibiting higher daily maximum temperatures than the 2021-2050 period (~2 oC)

2021-2050 – reference period 2071-2100 – reference period

projections of air quality in europe: a two-way...

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