property outlook - mobile real estate · 4 realestate.com.au property outlook ff jul 2018 or oee...
TRANSCRIPT
Nerida is one of Australia’s leading property experts. She provides regular market commentary to a wide range of Australian media outlets across digital, print, television and radio. She also contributes content for REA Group’s websites including realestate.com.au and realcommercial.com.au.
Slowing conditions are
only part of the story
Nerida ConisbeeChief Economist at realestate.com.au
Property OutlookAustralian Property Market Report - July 2018
The realestate.com.au Property Outlook report brings you the latest data and insights relating to demand and median price for residential dwellings across
Australia.
2
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
Table of contents
National 3
NSW 6
VIC 9
QLD 11
SA 13
TAS 15
NT 17
ACT 19
WA 21
Methodology 23
3
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Houses Apartments
Demandfor all property
Year-on-Year5.2%
Year-on-year demand by capital city
NT4.7%
WA6.4%
QLD5.9%
SA2.7%
NSW-22.5%
TAS38.6%
ACT16.2%
VIC-6.1%
7.8%Year-on-Year
-1.2%Year-on-Year
The housing market slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney is dominating headlines, but the reality is the market is highly divergent. On one hand, Sydney prices have declined by 7.4% year-on-year, while on the other extreme, Hobart continues to surge, with prices rising by 16.1%.
Pricing data is consistent with what we are observing based on over 80 million searches to the ‘buy’ section of realestate.com.au last quarter (REA Internal data, Adobe Analytics, search results successful - Apr-Jun). Across all measures of demand – including buyer demand, rental demand and property seekers from offshore – Sydney is experiencing the biggest drawbacks.
Melbourne is still holding. Pricing is up year-on-year and although activity among offshore buyers is cooling off, foreign investors are still actively looking for properties in the city. Softening market conditions are now starting to take hold and, surprisingly, given the widespread concern about apartment over-supply, in relative terms, it is housing demand that has weakened more.
National
4
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Australia
All dwellings
$815,000
-7.4%
$653,000
+0.5%
$485,000
+1.0%
$440,000
+3.0%
$426,850
+16.1%
$460,000
-5.2%
$585,000
+7.7%
$470,000
-2.3%
Median price
YoY growth
1.2.3.4.5.
Warrandyte, VICPark Orchards, VICRed Hill, VICCrafers, SABattery Point, TAS
6.7.8.9.
10.
Richmond, TASThe Basin, VICNorth Hobart, TASHobart, TASAlbert Park, VIC
While Melbourne and Sydney slow, demand is creeping up in Perth. Although prices are still down year-on-year, the increase in demand is now the third highest in Australia, after Hobart and Canberra. Brisbane is experiencing similar increases, also suggesting that the tough times are over in the city, which is consistent with recent jobs growth numbers.
Generally, across Australia, the premium market is holding up better than more affordable locations, however it is too simplistic to say that it’s the only market doing well. The strongest suburb over the past 12 months was Tamarama in Sydney’s east, which saw a median price increase of more than $1 million.
Tasmania’s Launceston has seen the strongest price growth of any Local Government Area (LGA) over the past 12 months. In the list of most in-demand suburbs in Australia, there is a wide variety of price points that people are looking at.
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra Perth
Median price
5
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Looking ahead, the housing market in Australia is under a lot of pressure, which will cap price growth everywhere. The reasons for this are varied.
Fewer offshore investors:Last year, new taxes were implemented in many capital cities and Foreign Investment Review Board applications dropped dramatically. Foreign buyers are still interested in Australian property (we continue to see growing numbers of Asian property seekers looking in all capital cities, except Sydney and Adelaide), however they are not transacting. While the new taxes are partly to blame, a change in sentiment has also occurred. There is also less development taking place (foreign buyers are restricted to buying new properties), as well as fewer Chinese developers. Property is now on the restricted list in China and more often than not, Chinese developers tend to sell back to their home market.
Fewer local investors:Investor lending has dropped by 15% over the past 12 months and sentiment of local investors has changed. A lot of this has to do with problems related to getting finance (far more restrictive and more expensive), but many of the incentives that investors got on off-the-plan developments, for example, are no longer available. The beginning of price declines is only worsening the situation.
Financial Services Royal Commission:This is currently underway and although it won’t be completed until late this year, banks are already starting to restrict lending on the back of what they expect to happen. The biggest impact right now is greater scrutiny of potential borrowers’ spending behaviour. Previously, banks mostly accepted what people said they spent at face value, however they now require more proof. Interest-only loans have also been restricted and many investors had relied on these. It is likely even greater restrictions will be put in place over the next 12 months.
Mortgage rates:Australian rates aren’t budging but US rates are increasing. Australian banks raise about 20% of funds that they lend to Australians from wholesale markets, so this is impacting mortgage rates already. Add in an interest rate rise and we will see less money being borrowed, as well as lower levels of interest in buying a house.
Change of government:A federal election will happen in the next 12 months and changes to negative gearing have been flagged by the ALP. This would have a big impact on the market, with an expected decrease in prices of about 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, according to Riskwise and Wargent Consulting. If markets are already weak and dropping, this could have a dramatic impact on investment levels and, subsequently, prices.
The likely outcome over the next six months is continued moderation of pricing in Melbourne and Sydney, while our other markets will hold up a lot better. Predictions that median prices will decline by about 10% seems a bit light in Sydney, given that prices have already dropped by more than 7%. Melbourne is likely to see declines this year, however, at this stage, it is unlikely to be as extreme as in Sydney, particularly given that on a year-on-year basis, we are still seeing a very slight increase.
On the positive side, the Australian economy is very slowly heading back to growth mode and as the development pipeline has slowed dramatically, particularly for apartments, this means less property will be available to buy. These will provide buffers to negative changes in the market, something that was not occurring the last time we saw big declines post the Global Financial Crisis.
6
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Prices have now dropped in Sydney by more than 7% in the past 12 months and demand has pulled back by 22%. Given these weak levels of demand, we are likely to see prices continue to fall for the remainder of the year.
While demand in Sydney is weak overall, some areas are holding up better than others. Sydney’s eastern suburbs have seen the lowest decline in demand and continue to have some suburbs that are selling particularly quickly (North Bondi) or seeing very high price increases (Tamarama). Freshwater, Paddington and Cammeray are seeing the highest demand for houses, while apartment demand remains high in Fairlight, Cremorne Point and McMahons Point.
Demand
Median price$815,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$925,000-14.0%Year-on-Year
-2.4%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$700,000-7.9%Year-on-Year
-1.4%Quarter-on-Quarter
-23.1%Year-on-Year
At the other end of the scale, the LGA of Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury has seen the biggest drop in demand and high supply suburbs like Sydney Olympic Park are seeing very low views per listing.
In regional NSW, demand conditions are mostly mixed, with Orange and the Richmond Valley seeing big jumps in the number of people looking to buy. Wollongong and Shellharbour, where market conditions are more closely linked to Sydney, have now seen declines in demand of about 40%.
-7.4%Year-on-Year
-0.6%Quarter-on-Quarter
All dwellings
Price declines will widen
the property divide
Sydney has been hit hardest by declining demand and is the city most impacted by the strong pull back in local and offshore investors. It isn’t surprising given that most investors tend to concentrate on prices below $850,000 and the availability of properties in this price point is more limited. Cost of living pressures for owner-occupiers are also a factor, particularly with limited wages growth and pressure on mortgage rates.
SydneyNSW
-22.5%Year-on-Year
-22.5%Year-on-Year
7
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Sydney
1.2.3.4.5.
FreshwaterPaddingtonCammerayNorth SydneyNarraweena
1.2.3.4.5.
FairlightCremorne PointMcMahons PointCentennial ParkArtarmon
6.7.8.9.
10.
North ManlyNewtonAllambie HeightsNorth BalgowlahNorth Curl Curl
6.7.8.9.
10.
WollstonecraftQueenscliffNaremburnPaddingtonGreenwich
Houses Apartments
Sydney metro regionsRegions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Baulkham Hills & Hawkesbury $1,208,500 -4.7% -0.5% -30.7%
Blacktown $700,000 -5.3% -0.1% -21.1%
City & Inner South $950,000 -3.1% 0.6% -18.9%
Eastern Suburbs $1,330,000 -13.9% -16.2% -13.2%
Inner South West $855,000 -2.8% 3.0% -21.2%
Inner West $1,050,000 -4.5% -3.4% -.18.0%
North Sydney & Hornsby $1,185,000 -14.3% -9.9% -26.2%
Northern Beaches $1,370,000 -8.7% -4.2% -20.5%
Outer South West $665,000 0.8% 2.3% -19.5%
Outer West & Blue Mountains $650,000 -3.0% -0.8% -27.0%
Parramatta $725,000 -6.0% 0.0% -22.4%
Ryde $1,220,000 16.2% 23.2% -28.3%
South West $743,500 -3.4% -0.5% -30.0%
Sutherland $970,000 -15.7% -5.8% -27.2%
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
8
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
NSW regions
Albury $305,000 4.8% 4.8% 20.6%
Armidale Dumaresq $335,000 -9.5% -4.3% 23.3%
Ballina $640,000 11.3% 0.6% 28.9%
Bathurst Regional $425,000 6.3% 3.7% -27.5%
Byron Bay $850,000 1.2% -6.1% -1.8%
Clarence Valley $380,000 3.1% 0.0% 29.1%
Coffs Harbour $479,500 4.9% -1.1% -0.7%
Dubbo $360,000 2.9% 0.3% 1.3%
Eurobodalla $477,000 12.5% 5.2% 25.2%
Great Lakes $479,000 8.6% 4.1% 13.9%
Lismore $380,000 -3.8% -3.9% 20.6%
Newcastle $615,000 5.5% 0.8% -25.5%
Orange $385,000 4.8% -1.0% 42.9%
Port Macquarie-Hastings $489,000 -2.1% -3.2% 2.8%
Queanbeyan $456,250 0.3% -8.8% 22.2%
Richmond Valley $325,000 9.1% 8.3% 46.0%
Shellharbour $627,500 -1.2% 1.2% -41.5%
Shoalhaven $555,000 6.7% -2.6% -22.1%
Tamworth Regional $345,000 5.3% -1.4% 18.7%
Tweed $585,000 12.5% 10.4% 24.7%
Wagga Wagga $335,000 -3.5% -6.7% 18.5%
Wingecarribee $749,750 -6.3% -4.2% -27.5%
Wollongong $702,000 5.6% 0.3% -37.7%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
9
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
This, however, is yet to be reflected in pricing and we are likely to see this change over the remainder of the year. On a suburb basis, it is simplistic to say that only the best inner Melbourne suburbs will do well. Places like Warrandyte and Eltham continue to make the most-wanted list for houses, alongside Hawthorn, Toorak and St Kilda. The strength of Geelong is now apparent with Belmont in high demand when we look at the state as a whole, not just for houses but also for apartments.
While demand has dropped slightly in Melbourne, regional Victoria is now tearing ahead with places like Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat doing well - driven by first home buyers and young families looking for great lifestyle factors, period homes and affordability. The suburbs that people are looking at most in these areas, such as Soldiers Hill in Ballarat and Belmont in
Demand
Median price$653,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$720,000
Demand
Median price
$536,0000.6%Year-on-Year
4.5%Year-on-Year
Geelong, back a Melbourne-led demand surge. Prices in Geelong and Surf Coast are now up more than 11% in the past 12 months, a marked difference to Melbourne pricing.
0.5%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Expect the unexpected: apartments
outdoing houses
Weaker demand conditions in Melbourne have now crept in and although prices are still up year-on-year, demand has pulled back slightly over the past 12 months. Surprisingly, it is housing demand that has dropped the most, perhaps driven by how expensive prices have become. Apartments, which were considered by many to be the highest risk area, are continuing to see high demand levels.
Premium areas in Melbourne appear to be holding up better than most, with inner Melbourne demand up year-on-year, while other parts of Melbourne have dropped.
MelbourneVIC
0.5%Quarter-on-Quarter
0.0%Quarter-on-Quarter
-2.7%Year-on-Year
1.1%Quarter-on-Quarter
-6.1%Year-on-Year
-12.8%Year-on-Year
10
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Melbourne
1.2.3.4.5.
HawthornWarrandytePark OrchardsAlbert ParkRed Hill
1.2.3.4.5.
MontmorencyParkdaleBriar HillCoburg NorthSt Kilda West
6.7.8.9.
10.
Fitzroy NorthElthamCollingwoodSt KildaToorak
6.7.8.9.
10.
MitchamElthamSydenhamBlack RockTullamarine
Houses Apartments
VIC regions
Melbourne metro regions
Ballarat $341,550 5.1% 0.5% 54.5%
Greater Bendigo $340,000 4.6% 3.0% 46.1%
Greater Geelong $505,000 11.0% -1.0% 53.9%
Greater Shepparton $265,000 6.0% -5.4% 43.5%
Mildura $260,000 4.0% 3.2% 33.2%
Surf Coast $804,000 11.7% 3.0% 16.8%
Warrnambool $317,000 3.2% -5.7% 59.6%
Wodonga $345,000 8.8% 3.0% 28.4%
Inner $618,100 -9.1% -1.0% 8.8%
Inner East $1,030,000 -16.2% -6.8% -3.7%
Inner South $850,000 -13.7% -7.6% -6.9%
North East $670,000 4.2% 1.4% -9.3%
North West $600,500 8.0% 1.8% -14.9%
Outer East $750,000 1.4% 3.4% -20.3%
South East $630,000 6.8% 1.4% -10.3%
West $587,000 12.3% 3.7% -4.1%
Regions
Regions
Median Price
Median Price
Demand
Demand
June 2018median price
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
11
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Melbourne and Sydney. Prices never increased to the same level and it remains far more affordable. With so much spending on infrastructure, the city is now well prepared for population growth, which appears to be occurring as jobs growth continues to recover. The suburbs doing the best are premium areas, with East Brisbane and Indooroopilly seeing the highest demand for houses. For apartments, Gold Coast is dominating, with Tugun and Currumbin the highest demand suburbs for the state.
Demand
Median price$485,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$525,0002.7%Year-on-Year
Demand
Median price
$382,500-4.1%Year-on-Year
-1.7%Quarter-on-Quarter
4.5%Year-on-Year
In Brisbane, high levels of development mean that middle and outer ring suburbs, where there is less supply, are doing well for townhouses and apartments.
Regional Queensland is seeing a pick-up in demand everywhere except the Gold Coast, which appears to be experiencing a post Commonwealth Games hangover. However, with very high demand in some Gold Coast suburbs, this is likely to be short-lived, particularly given how strong this region is with Sydney-based property seekers. Gladstone has seen the biggest jump in demand, driven by government investment in this part of Queensland leading to an increase in jobs.
0.0%Quarter-on-Quarter
All dwellings
Market affordability
drives higher demand in
Brisbane
With so much talk of price falls, Brisbane apartments should be seeing poorer demand conditions right now. Perhaps all the bad news is driving buyers to have a look around in search of a bargain – demand is now up 4.5% over the past 12 months. Offshore property seekers are also very active, and we are now seeing Brisbane with the biggest increases from this buyer group – far higher than any other capital city.
Overall, prices in Brisbane are up 1% with houses seeing a slight increase and apartments seeing a decline. From a demand perspective, the timing in the cycle for this city appears to be at odds with
BrisbaneQLD
1.0%Year-on-Year
1.0%Quarter-on-Quarter
5.9%Year-on-Year
6.7%Year-on-Year
12
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
QLD regions
Bundaberg $265,000 -7.0% -9.7% 30.2%
Cairns $340,000 -4.2% -5.8% 6.5%
Douglas $335,000 -1.2% 22.9% 19.3%
Fraser Coast $305,000 -1.6% -3.2% 33.8%
Gladstone $230,000 -14.8% -12.5% 39.1%
Gold Coast $536,000 4.1% 2.1% -9.1%
Gympie $295,000 0.0% -1.8% 32.2%
Mackay $321,000 0.3% -2.4% 31.1%
Noosa $608,000 -3.5% -10.4% 24.2%
Rockhampton $240,000 -12.7% -9.4% 5.6%
Sunshine Coast $545,000 5.8% 0.0% 6.5%
Toowoomba $355,000 -1.0% -2.7% 4.8%
Townsville $310,000 -1.6% -1.6% 10.9%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Brisbane
1.2.3.4.5.
East BrisbaneIndooroopillyPaddingtonHolland ParkWilston
1.2.3.4.5.
GracevilleMansfieldTarragindiCamp HillRed Hill
6.7.8.9.
10.
ChandlerWindsorCoorparooNewmarketToowong
6.7.8.9.
10.
AshgroveHolland ParkTingalpaNew FarmPaddington
Houses Apartments
Brisbane metro regions
East $556,000 5.7% 3.3% 16.7%
North $540,000 1.9% 1.3% 6.0%
South $635,000 1.6% 2.4% -2.1%
West $633,500 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Inner City $628,000 -3.1% 1.7% 13.7%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
13
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
The suburb most in demand continues to be Unley, a perennial favourite in the Adelaide market. The popularity of the Adelaide Hills is also creeping up with suburbs like Crafers now sitting in the top 10 most in demand in Australia. Inner Adelaide and Adelaide Hills continue to dominate most popular lists, but it is Glenelg South that has seen the strongest increase in median price over the past 12 months.
Apartment demand has slowed and is pulling down the median for Adelaide. While there is weakness, it is not consistent across the city, and Mile End, Kensington Gardens and Grange are currently seeing the highest demand for this property type.
Demand
Median price$440,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$470,0004.4%Year-on-Year
2.2%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$350,000
-2.2%Year-on-Year
3.0%Year-on-Year
2.3%Quarter-on-Quarter
4.6%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Will ‘slow and steady’
win the race?
Houses remain in strong demand in Adelaide, however there is a weakness in apartments in the city driven by high levels of supply over the past couple of years. Demand is now up 2.7% overall in Adelaide and prices are up 3%. While Melbourne and Sydney are looking pretty weak right now, Adelaide is holding its own.
AdelaideSA
-4.1%Quarter-on-Quarter
-0.3%Year-on-Year
2.7%Year-on-Year
14
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Adelaide
1.2.3.4.5.
UnleyGoodwoodStirlingCrafersKingswood
1.2.3.4.5.
Mile EndKensington GardensGrangeUnleyBurnside
6.7.8.9.
10.
Upper SturtUnley ParkGlensideHawthornParkside
6.7.8.9.
10.
FullartonGlenelg SouthNorth AdelaideWarradaleClarence Park
Houses Apartments
Adelaide metro regions
Central & Hills $580,000 5.5% 7.6% 2.3%
North $360,000 4.3% 2.9% 4.3%
South $445,000 1.7% 3.1% 1.6%
West $492,500 8.8% 3.7% -0.5%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
15
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Inner Hobart is the place most buyers want to be, with West Hobart and North Hobart the most in demand for houses. Hobart and Sandy Bay top the list for apartments. Strong conditions have also now spread to Launceston and Devonport and these cities have seen increases in demand of more than 45%.
While strong pricing is good news for some, it is creating challenges in Hobart. Affordability is dropping and it is starting to become problematic for first home buyers.
Demand
Median price$426,850
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$470,000
19.0%Year-on-Year
4.4%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$355,000
22.4%Year-on-Year
7.1%Quarter-on-Quarter
52.6%Year-on-Year
38.6%Year-on-Year
16.1%Year-on-Year
2.6%Quarter-on-Quarter
35.8%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Bass Straight no barrier
for property prices
Hobart’s place as the most affordable capital city in Australia is now at risk with the median about to overtake Adelaide. Jobs growth and very little development are the two factors increasing prices. While property investors are likely to be a key factor in the price increases, strong growth in rental demand suggests that the market is being supported by people needing a place to live. Tasmania is booming and Hobart continues to be red hot.
HobartTAS
A rise in traditional rental housing moving to short term rentals, and increases in jobs, means that there is also less rental accommodation for the growing population.
Hobart needs more housing to accommodate its growth - a challenge for a city that is accustomed to very little traffic, low levels of congestion and limited apartment development.
16
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Hobart
1.2.3.4.5.
North HobartWest HobartRichmondBelleriveSouth Hobart
1.2.3.4.5.
HobartSandy BayBelleriveNew TownWest Moonah
6.7.8.9.
10.
Sandy BayMoonahKingston BeachTaroonaHowrah
6.7.8.9.
10.
KingstonWest HobartGlenorchyClaremontBrighton
Houses Apartments
TAS regions
Devonport $275,000 3.8% 4.8% 48.1%
Launceston $313,500 15.4% 4.7% 47.7%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
17
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Demand
Median price$460,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$505,000-1.0%Year-on-Year
0.0%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$377,000-14.3%Year-on-Year
1.9%Quarter-on-Quarter
1.2%Year-on-Year
4.7%Year-on-Year
-5.2%Year-on-Year
-3.7%Quarter-on-Quarter
6.9%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Darwin property
emerging from market
slumber
Price declines in Darwin are almost on par with Sydney however unlike our biggest city, Darwin is slowly pulling itself out of a market slump. Demand is now steadily increasing and is up almost 5%, while apartments are also seeing better demand conditions. The suburbs most in demand have changed over the past two years. The most popular suburbs tended to be around Charles Darwin University, but now inner Darwin is really picking up. Fannie Bay and Bayview now feature in the most wanted list, joining previous favourite Jingili.
DarwinNT
18
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Darwin
1.2.3.4.5.
MillnerJingiliFannie BayNightcliffAlawa
1.2.3.4.5.
Fannie BayThe GardensBayviewMarraraStuart Park
6.7.8.9.
10.
WulagiStuart ParkParapLeanyerLudmilla
6.7.8.9.
10.
Rapid CreekLeanyerLudmillaBakewellGray
Houses Apartments
19
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Demand
Median price$585,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$683,0005.1%Year-on-Year
5.1%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$415,000-5.7%Year-on-Year
-3.5%Quarter-on-Quarter
17.2%Year-on-Year
16.2%Year-on-Year
7.7%Year-on-Year
6.4%Quarter-on-Quarter
18.5%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Is “polly watching”
a thing?
Although not quite as hot as Hobart, Canberra is still doing very well. Demand is up 16.2% over the past 12 months and prices are up 7.7%. Unusually, the increases in demand for apartments and houses are roughly similar. Also unusual is that conditions in Canberra are not in line with Sydney and Melbourne.
CanberraACT
The most in demand suburbs in Canberra show a mix of inner and outer locations. For houses, Ainslie is topping the list of most in demand, while for apartments, it is Palmerston. Just outside of the ACT boundary, Queanbeyan is also doing well with demand in the area up 22%, a stronger increase than Canberra itself. At this stage, the increases in demand are not flowing through to pricing, which has only moderately increased over the past 12 months.
20
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Canberra
1.2.3.4.5.
AinslieKaleenPalmerstonWanniassaYarralumla
1.2.3.4.5.
PalmerstonWatsonNgunnawalCaseyMawson
6.7.8.9.
10.
WeetangeraCurtinMacgregorHigginsO'Connor
6.7.8.9.
10.
KambahO'ConnorHoltHawkerNA
Houses Apartments
21
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
On an individual suburb level, it is the west that is doing the best. Shenton Park continues to be popular but has now been knocked out of top spot by Floreat. For apartments, Nedlands is the most in demand and although demand is creeping up for apartments, prices are flat over the past 12 months. The toughest market is the south west.
For regional Western Australia, Broome is finally starting to see better conditions with demand up amid continued decline in prices year-on-year. It is likely that a recovery in this region will closely mimic what is happening in Perth. Bunbury is still tough with both demand levels and prices down.
Demand
Median price$470,000
Houses Apartments
Demand
Median price
$485,000-3.0%Year-on-Year
-3.0%Quarter-on-Quarter
Demand
Median price
$415,000
6.4%Year-on-Year
-2.3%Year-on-Year
-2.1%Quarter-on-Quarter
7.5%Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Perth is back in the
game
While there are challenges on the east coast, the west is slowly but surely turning a corner. Prices are still down overall but demand continues to climb. Perth has seen the third highest increase in demand over the past 12 months, after Hobart and Canberra. In some parts of Perth, such as the north west of the city, prices are now consistently up year-on-year.
PerthWA
3.9%Quarter-on-Quarter
0.0%Year-on-Year
0.0%Year-on-Year
22
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · JULY 2018
For complete methodology, see page 23
WA regions
Broome $430,000 -3.4% -7.5% 5.8%
Bunbury $277,500 -11.9% -4.3% -1.8%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Perth
1.2.3.4.5.
FloreatShenton ParkPeppermint GroveNedlandsEast Fremantle
1.2.3.4.5.
NedlandsDoubleviewEast FremantleBictonLeederville
6.7.8.9.
10.
Mount HawthornDalkeithSubiacoWest LeedervilleLeederville
6.7.8.9.
10.
Mount HawthornKensingtonJoondannaInnalooConnolly
Houses Apartments
Perth metro regions
Inner $817,500 -2.1% -0.9% 2.3%
North East $430,000 -1.1% -4.4% 11.4%
North West $497,000 0.3% -0.6% 6.8%
South East $457,000 -0.7% 1.6% 7.6%
South West $465,500 -5.0% -2.0% 5.7%
Regions Median Price Demand
June 2018median price
Year-on-Year %change
Year-on-Year %change
Quarter-on-Quarter %change
23
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY MARKET REPORT · JULY 2018
Property Demand
Demand for property provides data and insights relating to demand for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national level, capital city, local government area level, Statistical Area Level 4 and by suburb according to property views data on realestate.com.au. It calculates the number of property views in the past 3 months against the average number of property listings on realestate.com.au.
This report uses realestate.com.au internal data that is current as at the time of publication. This report provides general information only and is not intended to constitute any advice or appraisal and should not be relied upon as doing so. If you wish to cite or refer to this report (or any findings or data contained in it) in any publication, please refer to the report as the ‘realestate.com.au Property Outlook – July 2018’.
Data obtained by RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic Asia Pacific is subject to the following copyright: © 2018 Copyright RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic (CoreLogic), Local, State, and Commonwealth Governments. All rights reserved. No reproduction, publication, adaption, modification, public communication, distribution or transmission of the copyrighted materials in this publication is permitted whether in whole or in part. The copyrighted materials in this publication are provided for personal or internal business purposes only unless otherwise agreed in writing.
The information provided in this publication is current as at the publication date only. CoreLogic does not warrant accuracy or completeness in the information it supplies and to the full extent allowed by law excludes any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.
Median Price
Median price is calculated using CoreLogic sold price data for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national level, capital and local government areas. Median price is for the past quarter for suburbs that have had at least 10 property sales.
Methodology