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Proposal for a New Climate Target

CAN-JapanFriday, March 20, 2015

Presented by Naoyuki YamagishiLeader, Climate and Energy GroupWWF Japan

Ver. 2

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List and Status of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) =

Post-2020 Climate Targets

Updates are provided at CAN-Japan’s website (in Japanese) http://www.can-japan.org/activities/1761

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CAN-Japan Proposal (1)

Japanese GHG Emissions have to be reducedby 30-35% below 1990 by 2025by 40-50% below 1990 by 2030(respectively, 31-36% and 41 ～ 51 ％ reduction below 2010)

• Renewables target+ Feed-in Tariff Scheme / Electricity System Reform / Heat Policies

• Energy Efficiency Target• Steady shift from dependence on fossil fuels (Stopping new coal-fired power

plants)• Achieving both ambitious climate target and phasing out nuclear

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CAN-Japan Proposal (2) Adaptation

• Incorporate an overall target and general direction of policies from the National Adaptation Plan, which is currently under discussion.

Finance and Technology Support• Present targets and commit to contributing to the establishment

of international innovative finance mechanisms and international mechanism for loss and damage

Contributing to emission reduction abroad• In addition to domestic emission reduction efforts, commit to

contributing to emission reduction abroad. However, it has to be clearly distinguished from domestic reduction and only those emission reductions done through mechanisms and approaches approved under the UN should be counted as contribution.

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Three Perspectives

Globally Required Reduction

Equity Reduction Potentials

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GLOBALLY REQUIRED REDUCTIONPerspective 1

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Globally Required Reductionin 2030

• By 2050, the global GHG emissions must be reduced 40-70% below 2010.

• By 2030, the global GHG emissions must be between 30-50Gt CO2eq.

Based on IPCC AR5 WG3

To achieve the 2 ºC goal

• Need to limit the emissions as close as possible to 30 Gt-CO2eq (39% reduction below 2010; 21% reduction below 1990)

• Securing higher likelihood (>66%)• Securing 1.5 ºC

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EQUITYPerspective 2

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CAN’s view on Equity

Equity Principles agreed by CAN

Adequacy Responsibility Capability

Development Need Adaptation (and Loss and Damage) Need

There are a wide variety of views

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Review of various effort sharing studies

Figure 6.28, Chapter 6 of IPCC AR5 WG III

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A Variety of Views on EquityCited from the original paper for the Figure 6.28

• OECD1990 – 33-74% Reduction: Reduction rates for OECD1990 are 33-74% reduction below 1990 for 2030 (37-75% reduction below 2010) and 27-42% below 1990 (27-69% reduction below 2010 。

• Japan Australia and NZ – 30-58% Reduction: 日 Japan, Australia and NZ as a group need to reduce emissions by 30-58% below 1990 (39-61%) by 2030 and 27-42% below 1990 (33-47% below 2010) by 2025.

Source: Höhne, Niklas et al. (2014) Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies, Climate Policy. 14(1): 122-147, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.849452

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A Study based on Carbon Budget

Converging Per Capita Emissions (CPE)

Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC)

To 1990 To 2005 To 2010 To 1990 To 2005 To 2010

2020 -22 ％ -27 ％ -21 ％ -27 ％ -31 ％ -26 ％

2030 -54 ％ -57 ％ -54 ％ -66 ％ -68 ％ -66 ％

2050 -95 ％ -95 ％ -95 ％ -95 ％ -95 ％ -95 ％

Source Kuramochi, Takeshi, Asuka, Jusen, Fekete, Hanna, Tamura, Kentaro and Höhne, Niklas (2014) Japan’s Medium- And Long-Term GHG Mitigation Pathways Under The Carbon Budget Approach （ IGES Working Paper No. 2014-02) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) http://pub.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=5431

• Roughly, Reduction of 55 ％～ 65% below 1990 is indicated for 2030.

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Equity-based approach

Climate Equity Reference Calculator

2025 2030

Japan’s contribution in the world

To 1990 (%) -170% -217%

Reduciton to 1990 (Mt CO2eq) -2,103 -2,685

This tool is to calculate a country’s contribution in the world (i.e. it does not distinguish domestic reduction and reduction abroad) through direct reduction as well as reduction through finance and technology support.Source Climate Equity Reference Calculator http://www.gdrights.org/calculator/

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REDUCTION POTENTIALSPerspective 3

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Reduction Potentials

Scenarios 2025 2030Kiko NetworkJapan Climate Vision 2050: An energy future independent of nuclear power and fossil fuels [Scenario projections]

- -66%

Greenpeace JapanThe advanced energy [r]evolution

- -46%

WWF Japan Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan

- -58%

CASA40% Reduction with zero nuke is totally possible – Results of CASA2030 Model

-29.8 〜-36.7%

-39.8 〜-42.7%

Reduction rates in CO2 from energy use in NGO Scenarios (compared to 1990)

• Roughly, they indicate that 40-60% reduction below 1990 is possible.

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CONSISTENCY WITH LONG-TERM GOALS AND EMISSION REDUCTION ABROAD

Other points

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CAN’s Long-term Goal

Climate Action Network calls for phasing out all fossil fuel emissions and phasing in a 100% renewable energy future with sustainable energy access for all, as early as possible, but not later than 2050. ）

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Consistency with 80% Reduction by 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Historical Emissions

3.8 ％ Reduction => 80% Reduction

Mt-

CO2e

q

23% Reduction in 2030

• 80 ％ Reduction by 2050 has been already agreed by the Cabinet in the past. To keep the consistency with this target, 23% reduction below 1990 by 2030 is the minimum level and actual reduction rate should be much steeper.

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Emission Reduction Abroad

Japanese INDC has to explicitly include commitment to contributing to emission reduction abroad through finance and technology support.

Two Conditions

• Clear distinction between domestic and overseas reduction• Only acknowledge emission reduction done through

mechanisms and approaches approved under the UN.

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SUMMARY

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CAN-Japan Proposal (1)

Japanese GHG Emissions have to be reducedby 30-35% below 1990 by 2025by 40-50% below 1990 by 2030(respectively, 31-36% and 41 ～ 51 ％ reduction below 2010)

• Renewables target+ Feed-in Tariff Scheme / Electricity System Reform / Heat Policies

• Energy Efficiency Target• Steady shift from dependence on fossil fuels (Stopping new coal-fired power

plants)• Achieving both ambitious climate target and phasing out nuclear

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CAN-Japan Proposal (2) Adaptation

• Incorporate an overall target and general direction of policies from the National Adaptation Plan, which is currently under discussion.

Finance and Technology Support• Present targets and commit to contributing to the establishment

of international innovative finance mechanisms and international mechanism for loss and damage

Contributing to emission reduction abroad• In addition to domestic emission reduction efforts, commit to

contributing to emission reduction abroad. However, it has to be clearly distinguished from domestic reduction and only those emission reductions done through mechanisms and approaches approved under the UN should be counted as contribution.