Proposal for aWWRP

High Impact Weather Project

Sarah Jones, Brian Golding

Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert,Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink,

Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank,

Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu

THORPEX ICSC 1115 - 17 July 2013

Background•WWRP THORPEX ends in 2014

•WMO EC June 2012: Two new WWRP Projects–S2S: Subseasonal to Seasonal–PPP: Polar Prediction Project

•THORPEX ICSC October 2012:–Identified potential need for additional project

•What is missing?–High Impact Weather plays important role in S2S and PPP–But S2S does not cover issues related to improving predictions of High Impact Weather on minutes-to-weeks time scales–PPP focussed on specific geographical region

Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project

Development of Proposal• Brainstorming after ICSC-10, Initial proposal to ICSC • North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting January 2013 in Austin, TX, USA• Initial international workshop to define scope & objectives

March 2013 in Karlsruhe, Germany• Appointment of task team

Chair: Sarah Jones, WMO Consultant: Brian GoldingMay 2013, 21 Members representing 9 nations/ WWRP &

THORPEX WGs• First draft of outline proposal

End of May 2013• Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives

14-19 June 2013• Submit draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC 9 July 2013• Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward• Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”

Mission of Project

Scope of ProjectAchieve a major advance in the ability of individuals, businesses and communities to reduce adverse weather impacts● Improve understanding of factors

influencing predictability of HIW● Improve forecast accuracy, resolution and lead time of HIW forecasts● Relate High Impact Weather forecasts to human impact, taking account of vulnerability● Reduce impact of High Impact Weather by improving communication

Scope of Project

Applications:

• Increase resilience of social, economic and environmental receptors• Provide justification• Determine key impacts• Reap the benefits of research

Research programme that respondsto the needs of the users for specific weather-related applications

Scope of Project

Scope of Project

Scope of Project

Scope of Project

Key research goal 1Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during HIW

Research Theme: Predictability and Processes

Predict-ability & Processes

Analysis of processes

Observations

Diagnosis of model errors

Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events

Aspects that are relevant to significant impacts–Address gaps in understanding of atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes relevant to HIW–Improve models, tools and forecast skill

RG 1: Predictability and Processes

NOAA

Danish Met Office

COPS

THORPEX

NOAA

Key research goal 2Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts

Predict-ability & Processes

Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction

Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Coupled Systems

Minutes to weeks

Local to Global

Improve predictions of atmosphere, ocean & land surface variables that cause weather-related impacts–Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazardscovering local to global scales and minutes to weeks–Using coupled ensemble prediction systems–Including novel observations via advanced data assimilation

RG 2: Multi-scale Prediction

NOAA ECMWFNOAA

Key research goal 3Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk

Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities

and businesses

Learn about their vulnerability

Quantify risk arising from

hazard

Vulner-ability &

Risk

RG 3: Vulnerability & RisksAssess impacts of natural hazards on receptors–Modelling complete chain: source pathways receptors complex pathways involving natural & built environments–Characterise impact on receptors depending on their exposure and vulnerability• Separate impacts on individuals, businesses & countries• Incorporate ability of receptors to respond and recover• Consider impacts of disasters on health and well-being

NWSUNISDR UNISDR

Key research goal 4Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Research Theme: Evaluation

Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their

impacts

Define how to measure benefits

of research

Eval-uation

RG 4: EvaluationMaximise utility of forecasts and warnings–Methods for evaluating probabilistic forecasts, especially for low-probability, high impact events

–Present verification results appropriate for different users

–Methods to evaluate impact of forecasts and warnings

–Assess impact of evaluation results on risk forecasts

NCEP

NWS

Key research goal 5Achieve more effective responses

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Eval-uation

Research Theme: Communication

Achieve more effective responses

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Eval-uation

Improve formulation andcommunication

of forecasts & warnings

Communication

RG 5: CommunicationMaximise response to available information–How to reach people at highest risk and ensure response

–Paradigms describing response of receptor groups

–Optimum sort of forecast/warning services, in dependence of hazard

–Best format of information for different receptors

DWD

NHC NHCUNISDR

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Applications in the forecasting process

Applications in the forecasting process

Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP

Automation

Interpretation

Assessment of impacts

Communication

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Design of observing strategies Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations

Assessment of local vs. global

Impacts and responses

Quality control

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Uncertainty Understanding

Predicting

Evaluating

Communicating

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Field campaigns and demonstration projectsUtilise data from previous campaigns

Exploit planned activities: Lake Victoria RDP / FDP

T-NAWDEX

Link to TIGGE-LAM

Involve End Users

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Knowledge Transfer Between scientific disciplines

Between research and operations

Internationally

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

VerificationKnowledge Transfer

Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Verification Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Impact forecasting Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the

impacts

Transfer of Results

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner

External Engagement

• To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team • During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users• During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results

Strategies to achieve goals•Develop linkages with other initiatives–International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction

•Strengthen inter-disciplinary linkages between academia, research institutions and oper. centres–Driven by stakeholders who are concerned with the outcome of increasing resilience, carried out in disciplinary groups

•Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.

Strategies to achieve goals•Establish and exploit special research datasets–Report additional observations through GTS–Continue TIGGE / TIGGE LAM to foster research activities concerning multi-model ensemble processingSignificant results for low probability events require large datasets

•Interaction and communication with stakeholders–Identify needs of stakeholders, engage them and communicate effectively

•Support research and demonstration projects–Study communication of forecast, perception of recipients and their actions in the field (T-NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, HYMEX, Severe Weather testbed…)

Builds on THORPEX – what is new?• Defined by needs of specific weather-related applications• Interaction and communication with stakeholders• Exploit opportunities from high resolution models

and observations• Include coupled systems • Vulnerability and Risk, Evaluation, Communication

Links to S2S: “handover “ for time-scale; benefit from related activitiesLinks to PPP: Collaborate and delineate

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

WWRP High Impact Weather Project

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”

Mission of Project

Task Team MembersChair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK)

Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology)Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG)Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective)Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG)Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process)Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE)Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations)Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation)Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG)Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG)Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE)Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling)Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO)Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects