Proposed Deemed Savings Rates for Energy Star 3.0 Plus 30% Televisions

By Christina Steinhoff

June 1, 2010

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In May we presented a method to calculate savings for NEEA’s 2009 Energy Star Televisions Program.

Prior to acceptance we needed to explain the differences in the Baseline Energy Consumption Calculation from the NWPCC.

Purpose

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Baseline

Two baselines Baseline energy consumption

Affects the savings rate Sixth Power Plan defines the baseline as Energy Star 3.0

specification.

Baseline market share Affects the program’s Net Market Affects The Sixth Power Plan defines the baseline as television

sales that already meet something close to Energy Star 5.0 specification (12% of the market)

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Review Of Proposed Methodology

X

X

X

=

=

=

6,571,116 kWh

1,361,326 kWh

235,832 kWh

Total Regional Savings: 0.9 aMW

+

+

Meet a Min of E.S. 3.0+30%

Meet a Min of E.S. 4.0

Meets a min of E.S. 5.0

97,499

48,356

14,929

67 kWh

28 kWh

16 kWh

Example of 32-inch television sales Sept.-Dec. 2009

Comes from QDI Strategies estimate of the sales by screen size. The estimate is based on NPD Group data adjusted to the Northwest based on program incentives and retail mix.

=Baseline Energy Consumption less Qualifying Units Energy Consumption.

Data source is NPD Group data for baseline energy consumption and NEEA’s incentives dataset for qualifying unit energy consumption.

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Review Of Proposed Methodology

Energy Consumption (in 7 screen-size categories)

Baseline Energy Consumption To be more consistent with the NWPCC, we took all

televisions sold in first quarter 2009 that met a minimum of E.S. 3.0 specification but less than 3.0 +15%.

N=434,206 televisions (12% of the NPD Group sales)

Qualifying Units Energy Consumption All incentivized televisions in 2009 (Sept.-Dec.)

N=112,477 televisions with a minimum of E.S. 3.0+ 30% specification

i

ii

UnitsModel

PowerUnitsModeltPowerAverageUni

nConsumptioUnitEnergyQualifyingptionergyConsumBaselineEnngsRateEnergySavi

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Baseline Energy Consumption

Even though we attempt to use the same logic, NEEA’s calculation will not equal the Sixth Power Plan. Baseline Period:

NEEA uses first Quarter 2009 and the 6th Plan uses December 2009. Baseline Television Mix:

NEEA uses national sales data and the 6th Plan uses the average energy consumption of the models available on the Energy Star list.

NEEA only looks at ES 3.0 televisions, while the 6th Plan may have included a mix of models that include those more efficient than Energy Star 3.0.

Baseline Calculation: NEEA takes the average energy use of the televisions sold. The 6th Plan takes the max energy consumption according to the

energy star specification by screen size. Standby Savings:

NEEA does not include savings from a reduction in standby energy use and the 6th Plan does.

Days per year: NEEA uses 365.25 and the 6th Plan uses 365.

Hours of Use: NEEA uses 5.2 and the 6th Plan uses 5.

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Baseline Energy Consumption

The difference amount to 38 kWh hours using the 6th Power Plan weights between the three buckets.

Screen Size

6th Power Plan Baseline

(kWh/Unit)

NEEA’s 3.0

Baseline (kWh/Unit)

Difference (kWh/Unit)

<32” 209 157 -52

32-46” 355 283 -72

>46” 536 567 31

Weighted 389 351 -38

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Note: the weighted numbers are based on the NWPCC’s weights between the three buckets.

Baseline Energy Consumption Compared with the NEEA’s Proposed Baseline

Baseline Energy Consumption

If we account for the difference in hours on per day, days in the year and standby, the results are 35 kWh apart.

Screen Size

6th Power Plan

Baseline

(kWh/Unit)

NEEA’s 3.0 Baseline

(kWh/Unit)

Difference (kWh/Unit)

<32” 209 168 -41

32-46” 355 289 -66

>46” 536 562 26

Weighted 389 355 -35

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Note: the weighted numbers are based on the NWPCC’s weights between the three buckets.

Baseline Energy Consumption Compared with the NEEA’s Proposed Baseline with 6th Plan Unit Conversion and standby consumption

Baseline Energy Consumption

So why are the NEEA baseline energy consumption results so much lower? Screen Size?

The screen size only account for a small difference. The screens in the NEEA dataset are only 1 to 2 inches smaller than the Energy Star List for Sept. 2009.

Significant difference in the efficiency of the televisions. The 6th Power Plan may have

1. Taken the average screen size of the models available from the Energy Star list.

2. Used the screen area to calculate the min efficiency to meet the ES 3.0, ES 4.0 and ES 5.0 specifications. This would result in a max watts for each specification.

3. Applied a compliance rate to the three specification's max watts to get the baseline energy consumption for the three screen size categories.

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Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology

We propose accepting the NEEA baseline of E.S. 3.0 using the NPD Group dataset to compare with the 6th Power Plan. The NEEA baseline would follow the 6th Plan logic of

ES 3.0 being the baseline. The NEEA baseline would be based on actual data

(purchase patterns).

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Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology

NEEA Screen

Size Category

Baseline Energy

Consumption (kWh)*

Qualifying Unit Energy Consumption

(kWh)**Incremental Energy

Savings Rate (kWh)***

Tier 1(E.S.

3.0+30%)

Tier 2(E.S. 4.0)

Tier 3(E.S. 5.0)

Tier 1 Tier 2 (Incremental

to Tier 1)

Tier 3 (Incremental

to Tier 2)

<32" 157 90 62 46 67 28 1632-46” 266 191 195 171 76 -5 24>46” 526 78 43 99 184 43 99

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Note:*Energy consumption of all televisions that met a E.S. 3.0. but less than E.S. 3.0 +15%; weighted based on the screen size mix of the qualifying products.** Average energy consumption of televisions a part of the NEEA initiative.***Savings rates are based on NPD Group baseline energy consumption in 2009 first quarter. The qualifying unit energy consumption comes from Energy Solution’s tracking of the NEEA program.

Total Regional Savings (E.S. 3.0+ Baseline)

NEEA Screen

Size Category

Incremental Energy Savings Rate (kWh)

Total Regional Units* Total Regional Savings (aMW)

Tier 1 Tier 2

Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

<32" 67 28 16 97,449 48,356 14,929 0.8 0.2 0.032-46” 76 -5 24 120,673 5,640 72 1.0 0.0 0.0>46” 184 43 99 55,362 8,227 104 1.2 0.0 0.0

Total: 3.2 aMW

Note:

*Total Regional Units come from QDI Strategies and are an estimate based on NPD Group and program data.

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Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology

Question to the Regional Technical Forum? Is the methodology NEEA is using for the calculation

of energy savings rates acceptable to compare with the 6th Power Plan?

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