prospects for co 2 capture and storage energy technology scenarios technologies and costs of co 2...
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PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Technologies and Costs of CO2 Sequestration
Jacek Podkanski, Dolf GielenInternational Energy Agency
Policy and Strategy of Sustainable Energy Development for Central and Eastern European Countries until 2030
Warsaw, Poland, 22-23 November 2005
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Carbon Capture & StorageResearch, Development, Demonstration and Deployment
● US: FutureGen● EU: Hypogen● Canadian Clean Power Coalition● Australia● Germany: COORETEC ● UK● Norway ● France ● Italy● Japan,…
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
International Energy Agency
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
World Energy Council Bilateral Agreements, …
Alstom ExxonMobilBP EniTecnologie SpAChevronTexacoEPRI Shell InternationalRWE AG TotalRio Tinto, Schlumberger,…
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Carbon Capture & Storage at the International Energy Agency
IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
IEA Clean Coal Centre
IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board
Secretariat
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage
What is CO2 capture & storage?
What are the costs?
How does the cost-effectiveness of CCS compare to other emission reduction options?
What will it take to bring CO2 capture and storage to market?
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
What is CO2 capture & storage?
Capturing CO2 from the gas streams emitted during electricity production, industrial processes or fuel processing
Transporting the captured CO2 by pipeline or in tankers
Storing CO2 underground in deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs or unminable coal seams
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture – Technology Status
CO2 capture is a proven technology
It reduces emissions by 85-95%
But its energy efficiency can be further improved and cost must be reduced
This requires integrated power plant and CO2 capture designs
Most of these advanced designs are not yet proven on a commercial scale
Examples: new chemical absorbents, oxyfueling, hydrogen combined cycles, IGCC, USCSC, chemical looping, fuel cells
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture - Opportunities
Fossil fueled power plants
Biomass fueled power plants
Certain industrial processes
Synfuels production
Natural gas processing
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Aquifer storage: demonstration
CO2-EOR: demonstration
CO2-EGR: pilot
CO2-ECBM: pilot
Storage – Technology Status
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Storage - Capacity
1,000-10,000 Gt aquifer storage capacity
100-120 Gt depleted oil fields/EOR
700-800 Gt depleted gas fields/EGR
20 Gt ECBM
Fixation mechanisms reduce risk
Monitoring is feasible and cheap
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Costs - overview
Capture (incl. compression)Current: 5 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.
Future: 5 - 30 USD/tCO2 av.
Coal-fired power plants 10 – 25 USD/tCO2 av.
Gas-fired power plants 25 – 30 USD/tCO2 av.
Transportation 2 – 20 USD/tCO2 av.
Injection 2 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.
Revenues -55 – 0 USD/tCO2 av.
Total -40 – 100 USD/tCO2 av.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture (electricity)- adds presently 2-3 UScents/kWh- long term 1-2 UScents/kWh
Fuel, technology
Electricefficiency
[%]
Capture costs
[$/t CO2 capt]
Electricity costs
[Mils/kWh]
Additional electricity costs
[Mils/kWh]
Likely technologiesCoal, steam cycle, CA (2010) 31 24 51.0 21.9Coal, steam cycle, membranes +CA (2020) 36 21 46.3 17.1
Coal, USC, membranes +CA (2030) 42 17 49.0 17.5Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2010) 38 20 52.3 14.9Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2020) 40 11 41.0 8.0Gas, CC, CA (2010) 47 29 36.8 10.7Gas, CC, Selexol, OxF (2020) 51 25 34.8 9.6
Black liquor, IGCC (2020) 25 4 27.9 4.4Biomass, IGCC (2025) 33 23 96.1 21.5Speculative technologiesCoal, CFB, Chemical looping (2020) 39 14 38.2 14.7
Gas, CC, Chemical looping (2025) 56 33 34.5 9.3
Coal, IGCC & SOFC (2035) 56 13 49.0 7.7Gas, CC & SOFC (2030) 66 28 39.2 8.6
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Costs – general comments
CCS costs competitive with other CO2 abatement options
Coal without CCS has no future in a CO2-constrained world
Electricity from coal or gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage is still cheaper than most renewables (fuel price dependent)
Efficiency first
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
How does the cost-effectiveness of CCS compare to other emission reduction options?Scenario analysis
Scenarios produced using IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model
Based on ETSAP-MARKAL
Systems engineering/partial equilibrium model
Global, 15-regions
Detailed representation of technologies on both the demand and supply sides (1500 new techs)
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Model
Covers carbon capture and storage and competing emission mitigation options;
ETP BASE scenario calibrated with WEO Reference Scenario;
Detailed scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to map cost-effective CCS potentials and uncertainties.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Emission stabilisationMarginal CO2 abatement cost
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 price
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture at various CO2 prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[Gt
CO
2/yr
]
GLO100
GLO50
GLO25
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Share of CCS in total CO2 emissions mitigation
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 capture by process area
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 capture by technology
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
IGCC and steam cycles
Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage
Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
COCO22 emissions from electricity emissions from electricity generationgeneration
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[Gto
n C
O2]
0$10$25$25$ NoCCS50$50$ NoCCS
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Electricity production mix
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Electricity production by power plants fitted with CCS, by region
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Fuel market implications:CCS impact on coal use at 50$/t CO2
0
100
200
300
400
No CO2 policy 50 US$/t CO2,CCS
50 US$/t CO2,no CCS
2000 2050 2050 2050
[EJ/
yr]
CCS impact
2050: 50$/t CO2 results in 80% or 40% decline in coal use, depending on availability of CCS
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on CO2 captured and stored in 2050)
CCS only in OECD countries -50% to -80%
CO2 pricing delayed by 15 years -10%
Different CO2 pricing
(25 – 100 USD/t CO2, basis: 50 USD)
-50% to +30%
Nuclear power allowed to grow -40%
No IGCC for synfuel cogeneration -30%
Cheaper renewables because of investment policies & technology learning
-50%
Additional electricity savings (10% more) -15%
GDP growth 2.2% to 3.2% (basis: 2.8%) -15% to +15%
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Challenges
RD&D gaps
Public awareness and acceptance
Legal and regulatory framework
Long-term policy framework and
incentives
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
RD&D gaps
More proof of storage needed
CO2 capture demonstration needed
0.5-1 bln per demonstration plant
Present spending 100 MUSD/yr
A fivefold increase of RD&D needed
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Long-term policy framework andincentives
In addition to the acceleration of RD&D funding, countries should create a level-playing field for CCS alongside other climate change mitigation technologies. This includes ensuring that various climate change mitigation instruments, including market-oriented trading schemes, are adapted to include CCS.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Conclusions
CCS can play a key role in addressing global warmingmainly through coal plants in coal-rich regionsbut also some natural gas opportunities
Carbon incentives are needed, but also:Proven technologyAcceptable storage