prospects of creating a cdm project pipeline in the philippines 3 rd asian regional workshop on...
TRANSCRIPT
Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the
Philippines
3rd Asian Regional Workshop on CD4CDM
23rd March 2004Siem Reap, Cambodia
Contents
1. Emissions inventory2. Carbon mitigation potential3. Renewable energy plans4. LULUCF potential5. Potential projects starting to
enter the pipeline
1. Emissions inventory
1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory
GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector
GHG Emissions from the Industrial Sector
GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector
GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector
GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector
2. Carbon mitigation potentials
Power Generation Mix
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
GW
h
Others
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Diesel
Fuel Oil
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Natural GasGeothermalOilCoal
CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector (PEP 2001 – 2011)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
DSM
Efficiency/EnergyLabelling
HRI
System LossReduction
Govt. ENERCONProgram
EnergyManagementServices
Potential CO2 Avoidance from Energy Efficiency Programs (PEP 2001 – 2011)
CDM POTENTIAL PROJECTSCDM POTENTIAL PROJECTS Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas
Abatement Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)Strategy (ALGAS) analyzed mitigation of 12 Asian countries, including the Philippines Philippine project priority areas:
energy transport agriculture wastes
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
0 3 6 9 12 15
Annual CO2 Reduction Potential (mill t CO2)
Aba
tem
ent Cos
t (U
S $
/ton
CO
2)
Source: ALGAS
PhilippineGHG Abatement Cost
and Potential
Abatement OptionAbatement Potential
(mill t CO2/year)Abatement Cost(US $ / ton CO2)
CFL 1.10 -26.3Industrial Boilers 0.37 -26.0System Loss Reduction 2.32 -17.2Industrial Motors 0.24 -13.7Eff Air Conditioning 1.47 -6.1Eff Refrigerators 0.37 -5.4Heat Rate Improvement 5.26 -5.1Eff Transport 1.34 -2.9Wind Power 0.24 -1.6Biomass Power 0.12 0.3Solar Power 0.12 1.4CC Natural Gas 1.83 2.4
MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL13,500 kW
MARINDUQUE ISLAND 3,000 kW
CUYO ISLAND 330 kW
BUSUANGA ISLAND 330 kW
PALAWAN ISLAND 9,000 kW
LUBANG ISLAND 330 kW
SIQUIJOR ISLAND 1,000 kW
SPECIFIC WIND POTENTIAL POWER SITES
CATANDUANES 2,250 kW
TABLAS ISLAND 1,500 kW
ROMBLON ISLAND1,000 kW
MASBATE ISLAND 3,000 kW
DINAGAT ISLAND3,000 kW
POLILLO ISLAND 500 kW
CASIGURAN500 kWNORTHERN LUZON
120 MW
BATANES1,100 KW
POTENTIAL CAPACITY:
160,340 kW
Solar Energy Resource Potential
Average insolation of 5- 6 kWh/sq. m/day all throughout the country
1990-2025 Equivalent CO2 Emissions from
Municipal Solid Waste Generation (million tons)
5.45
18.97
24.15
30.78
10.499.19
7.335.86
12.1214.23
16.86
20.01
9.87
7.33
12.11
15.04
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
constantgenerationrates
changinggenerationrates
3. Renewable energy plans
Philippine Energy PlanDepartment of Energy
NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 47%NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 47%
OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR1st Nine Months Y-O-Y NPC Power Generation
NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 45%NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 45%
2002 2003
Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012
Be the No.1 geothermal energy producer in the world
Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia
Double hydro capacity by 2012
New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW
Become a regional solar manufacturing export hub
Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10 MMBFOE within the next ten years
RE POLICY FRAMEWORKLong – Term Objectives
2002 Target Add’l. 2013 Capacity
Geothermal 1,931 1,200 3,131
Hydro 2,518 2,950 5,468
Wind 0 417 417
Solar, Biomass, Ocean 0 131 131
TOTAL 4,449 4,698 9,147
RE POLICY FRAMEWORK10 – Year Targets, MW
4. LULUCF potential
Potential CDM forestry projects
1. Reforestation and tree plantations• could easily meet requirements for additionality
2. Agroforestry and community forestry• greatest socio-economic benefits• risks may be greater
3. Dendrothermal power plants• Ipil-ipil fed power plants
Forest land cover distribution in the Phillippines (total area= 15.9 M ha) (Source: Lasco and Pulhin, 2000; FMB, 1996)
Protection forest17%
Secondary forest18%
Grasslands 13%
Brushlands15%
Plantations3%
Upland farms34%
“CDM”able Forest Lands
CDM
CDM CDM
Potential forest lands for CDM
• those the need to be permanently forested: critical watersheds, forest reserves, IPAS sites (4.6 M ha)
• degraded land areas: 3.5 M ha
Present Land Cover of Upper Magat Watershed (in ha)Total Area= 227,919 ha
129,594 (57%)
57,133 (25%)
7,809 (3%)18,094 (8%)15,289 (7%)
Built-up/Open land
Forest
Grassland
Non-tree agriculture
Secondary forest/tree plantationn
Lasco and Pulhin, 2003
Example of Degraded Watershed
Imperata grasslands cover > 2 M ha
5. Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline
Potential projects
• Being considered by World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund
• Endorsed by the Philippine Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change
• Received “Letter of No Objection” from the Secretary of the Department of Environment & Natural Resources
POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSNorthwind Wind Power
Northwind Wind Power Project
Project site located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte
Total installed capacity of 25.5 MW
Estimated emission reduction potential of 76,218 tCO2e annually
POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSTalisay Cogeneration Plant
Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane
Host facility is First Farmers Holding Corporation (FFHC)
Consists of 2 x 85 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg and 480°C and a single condensing steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 30 MW
Estimated emission reduction potential 54,457 to 133,466 tCO2e annually
POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSVictorias Bagasse Cogeneration
Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane
To be located at the Victorias Milling facility
Consists of 2 x 160 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg & 480°C & a single back pressure steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 50 MW
Emission reduction potential 71,329 to 182,896 tCO2e annually
Maraming salamat!!
• Roberto C. Yap, Ph.D.Environmental Economistklima – Climate Change CenterManila ObservatoryPhilippinesTel +63 2 426-6144Fax +63 2 [email protected]