protecting biodiversity and ecosystems helps mitigate climate change: the contribution of the aichi...
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Protecting biodiversity and ecosystems helps mitigate climate change:
The contribution of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets to land-based climate mitigation
Based on the full report at www.cbd.int/climate/UNFCCCCOP21.shtmlPrepared by: Paul Leadley, Rob Alkemade, Almut Arneth, Cornelia Krug, Alexander Popp,
Carlo Rondinini, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, with contributions from the SCBD
Paul Leadley, Professor, Univ. Paris-Saclay
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The Aichi Biodiversity Targets that are particularly relevant to land-based climate mitigation
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• Halting of the conversion of natural terrestrial ecosystems and restoring degraded ecosystems could make significant contributions to climate mitigation.
• Protection of ecosystems, especially forests and coastal ecosystems, is a cost effective means of climate mitigation.
• Contributions from afforestation, reforestation, avoided deforestation and improved forest management = 0.4 to 3.8 PgC/yr.
Global carbon budget (2000-2009): 7.8 PgC/yr = emissions from fossil fuel and cement; 1.0 PgC/yr = emissions due to land use change; 2.4 PgC/yr = terrestrial sequestration
Protecting natural ecosystems and restoration
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• Ecosystems in protected areas of Brazil store about 32 PgC, and natural forests and savannahs on private properties store approximately 29 PgC.
• Vulnerable carbon stocks in these areas = 7 to 8 years of current total global fossil carbon emissions
Protecting natural ecosystems and restoration
Global carbon budget (2000-2009): 7.8 PgC/yr = emissions from fossil fuel and cement; 1.0 PgC/yr = emissions due to land use change; 2.4 PgC/yr = terrestrial sequestration
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• Avoiding deforestation and restoring ecosystems is currently be more effective than bioenergy as a climate mitigation strategy.
• Biofuel crops are also often associated with large greenhouse gas emissions, direct and indirect land use change, and pollution.
• In the future, second-generation biofuels combined with carbon capture and storage could be more effective in climate mitigation.
Bioenergy and ecosystem-based strategies as alternative approaches
Evans et al. 2015
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• There is considerable disagreement about limits to future bioenergy supply- < 100 EJ/yr: high agreement; - 100–300 EJ/yr: medium - > 300 EJ/yr: low agreement.
• Many 2°C stabilization scenarios require >200 EJ/yr of bioenergy feedstocks “but such high deployment … could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods.” (Creutzig et al. 2015)
Bioenergy and ecosystem-based strategies as alternative approaches
Creutzig et al. 2015
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Sustainable agricultural intensification
• Sustainable agricultural practices, including promoting soil carbon sequestration, could contribute to climate mitigation while reducing impacts on biodiversity.
• Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of 0.3 to 1.2 PgC/yr could be achieved soon through conservation tillage, improved fertilizer and water management and mitigation of methane emissions from rice paddies and livestock.
Global carbon budget (2000-2009): 7.8 PgC/yr = emissions from fossil fuel and cement; 1.0 PgC/yr = emissions due to land use change; 2.4 PgC/yr = terrestrial sequestration
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Reducing waste and over-consumption
• Sustainable and healthy diets could reduce: o global greenhouse gas emissions by the
equivalent of ca. 0.3 to 0.6 PgC/yr compared to current trends,
o disease and mortality, and o conversion of natural habitats into
croplands.
• A third of food is currently lost due to spoilage and waste. Processing losses are ca. 0.06 PgC/yr and food waste losses ca. 0.08 PgC/yr: decreasing these losses would reduce cropland expansion.
Global carbon budget (2000-2009): 7.8 PgC/yr = emissions from fossil fuel and cement; 1.0 PgC/yr = emissions due to land use change; 2.4 PgC/yr = terrestrial sequestration
National Geographic
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Integrated insights on land-based mitigation: Looking into the future
Many current scenarios - including all of the recent RCP scenarios highlighted in the IPCC’s fifth assessment report - foresee large-scale deployment of biofuels and corresponding land use changes and/or high rates of greenhouse gas emissions that are likely to be detrimental to biodiversity.
Projected effects of RCP land use change scenarios on local species richness
Newbold et al. 2015
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Integrated insights on land-based mitigation: Looking into the future
New scenarios foresee that it is possible to meet biodiversity protection, climate mitigation and human-development targets
simultaneously.
These scenarios require:
• Protecting intact forests and restoring ecosystems (Aichi Targets 5, 11, 15), as well as creating incentives for this protection and restoration (Aichi Target 3).
• Focusing deployment of bioenergy on land with low carbon and biodiversity values, and avoiding incentives favoring undesirable land conversion, water use and pollution (Aichi Target 3).
• Promoting "healthy" diets and reductions in losses in food systems (Aichi Target 4).
• Sustainable intensification of agriculture with a focus on increasing efficiency (Aichi Target 7).
• A rapid shift to renewable energy sources and increased efficiency of energy use (Aichi Target 4).
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Learn More
A fully referenced version of this note and the full paper
on which it is based are available at: www.cbd.int/climate/UNFCCCCOP21.shtml
Full report prepared by: Paul Leadley, Rob Alkemade, Almut Arneth, Cornelia Krug, Alexander Popp,
Carlo Rondinini, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, with contributions from the SCBD
Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 - www.cbd.int/sp