præsentation af insero - region hovedstaden...erhvervsklynge, hvor mere end 30 virksomheder er...

25
PRÆSENTATION AF INSERO ELBILER I ET NORDISK PERSPEKTIV Søren Bernt Lindegaard – 17/11/2016

Upload: others

Post on 04-Feb-2021

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • PRÆSENTATION AF INSERO

    ELBILER I ET NORDISK PERSPEKTIV

    Søren Bernt Lindegaard – 17/11/2016

  • Vi udbreder bæredygtig transport og

    understøtter vækst.

    Vi omsætter vores indgående viden

    om det globale marked for e-

    mobilitet til analyser og strate-gier

    for producenter og virksom-heder –

    både internationalt og i Danmark.

    Vi rådgiver kommuner og større

    virksomheder gennem transport- og

    flådeanalyser og hjælp til imple-

    mentering af elbiler i flåden.

    Vi er med til at drive udviklingen i

    branchen gennem Nordens før-ende

    erhvervsklynge, hvor mere end 30

    virksomheder er repræsen-teret. Og

    så udvikler vi hele tiden ny viden og

    nye partnerskaber gennem vores

    mange udviklings- og

    demonstrationsprojekter.

    Vil du være en del af et hurtigt

    voksende marked? Følg strømmen

    på LinkedIn/Insero E-Mobility eller

    tag fat i direktør Mai Louise

    Agerskov på 4177 0144.

    E-mobilitet

    19E-MOBILITET

  • 3DAGSORDEN

    HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03

    INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05

    UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09

    INCITAMENTER SIDE 17

  • Insero Koncernen – bæredygtige løsninger på

    morgendagens udfordringer

  • Hvor er vi?

    Green Tech Center, Vejle

    Unikt demonstrationscenter med testfaciliter og energipark, som huser dedikerede grønne virksomheder.

    Vitus Bering Innovation Park, Horsens

    Innovativ forretningspark, hvor iværksættere og studerende arbejder sammen om nye løsninger.

  • Sådan arbejder vi

    R&D: Vi tiltrækker den nyeste viden gennem udviklingsprojekter.

    Business development: Vi udvikler teknologier og forretningsmodeller –og tester og demonstrerer dem i hverdagen.

    Consultancy: Vi bringer den ny viden i spil på markedet gennem ydelser og services

    New businesses: Ser vi et potentiale på markedet, skaber vi vores egne nye selskaber.

  • Nogle kunder vi har løst opgaver for…

  • DE GRUNDLÆGGENDE SKRIDT FOR EN STRATEGISK TRANSPORTPLAN

    8STRATEGISK ENERGIPLANLÆGNING - TRANSPORT

    Kortlægning

    •Kortlægning af eksisterende transport

    •Forventet udvikling i befolkning, byudvikling, industriudvikling samt statsligt vej og transportnet

    •Output: Baseline scenario

    Løsninger

    •Gennemgang af tiltagsportefølje fra andre byer

    •Innovationsproces med udgangspunkt i lokale udfordringer med inddragelse af relevante interessenter

    •Output: Idekatalog med mest relevante tiltag

    Kvantificering

    •Kvalificering af udvalgte tiltag fra idekatalog

    •Udarbejdelse af 4 basis-scenarier for fremtiden

    •Output: 4 Scenarier med kvantitative effekter og angivelser af timing og omkostninger ved implementering

    Handlingsplan

    •Kategorisering af de enkelte initiativer i relevante grupper og tidsmæssig og økonomisk prioritering

    •Identifikation af interessenter relevante for realisering af tiltagene

    •Output: Konkret handlingsplan for igangsættelse af første 3-års plan

  • Insero datterselskaber

    • +30 års erfaring indenfor softwareløsninger til lufthavne • Kvalitet, fleksibilitet og fuld integration

    • Enkel, prisvenlig og vedligeholdelsesfri varmeløsning• Ingen uforudsete omkostninger

    • Attraktiv og prisvenlig delebilsordning• Fast og lav abonnementspris • Ambition om at fjerne 1.000 biler i Århus kommune• 26 biler pr. d.d. i hele landet – heraf 10 i Århus kommune • I Århus: 25 mere indenfor de næste par måneder + 12 ekstra i 2017 er på

    plads men er ikke officielt – hertil kommer den organiske vækst • Delebilerne er både hos boligforeninger og private aktører

  • 10DAGSORDEN

    HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03

    INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 5

    UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09

    INCITAMENTER SIDE 17

  • 11INSERO QUARTERLY

    A quarterly publication visually presenting and

    analysing:

    • Nordisk Elbil- (EV) og plug-in hybrid- (PHEV) salg

    hvert kvartal (Danmark, Norge, Sverige og

    Finland).

    • Overblik over udrulningen af ladeinfrastruktur I

    landene.

    • Status på nationale elbilincitamenter.

    • Pris sammenligninger på tværs af lande og

    segmenter.

    • Tema-sektion om relevante E-mobility-relaterede

    emner. Denne gang om Mobility-as-a-service

    (MaaS).

    • Abonnenter i 32 lande i hele verden, citeret I

    nyhedsmedier i 45 lande

    WHAT IS INSERO QUARTERLY?

  • CAR MODELS

    CAR SALES

    CAR SALES IN TOTALPercentages of cars sold across the Nordics:

    2016

    2015

    2014

    New PHEV modelsNew EV models

    New EV and PHEV models each year:NUMBER OF CHARGING PLUGSTotal number of charging plugs across the Nordics:

    3.410

    334

    616

    11.411

    5.550

    DK NO SW FI

    EV

    PHEV

    Number of PHEVs

    and EVs sold in the

    Nordics:

    Most popular model:

    Mitsubisihi OutlanderNissan Leaf

    Q3 OUTLINE

    Mitsubisihi OutlanderVolkswagen E-golf

    Mitsubisihi OutlanderVolkswagen E-golf

    INSERO QUARTERLY, Q3 2016

    5.861

    680

    2.730 282

    DK NO SW FI

    Type 2

    Schuko

    CCS

    Type 1

    Tesla SC

    CHAdeMO

    Other

    PHEVEVTotal sales of cars and vans

    74,9%

    92,8%

    99,9% 96,0%

    13,0%

    12,1%

    3,2%

    FinlandNorway

    Denmark Sweden

    Nordics

    0,8%

    98,8%

    4,0%

    3,2%

    0,3%

    0,7%

    1,0%

    0,2%

    646

    212

    4.851

    173

    391

    134175

    906

    2.2221.996

    131119

    1.672

    646

    1.384

    448

    802

    8.068

    428 706

  • 13DAGSORDEN

    HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03

    INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05

    UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 9

    INCITAMENTER SIDE 17

  • 14

    Nordic │ The total number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Nordic

    countries rose by a record breaking 15,771 vehicles in Q3. It is 259 more vehicles

    than the previous record despite Swedish sales decreasing with 333 vehicles.

    TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK

    • The total stock has increased by 15,771 electric vehicles

    since Q2 2016. As a result, the total EV stock has increased

    with 45% in the first 9 months of 2016.

    • In Q1 and Q2 we predicted that sales would hit 80,000 this

    year in the Nordic region. Our expectations are now in the

    range of 60,000-75,000 vehicles sold in 2016.

    • Q3 saw the introduction of new PHEVs and the Tesla Model

    X, which has affected sales positively.

    • The record quarter was a result of a new sales record in

    Norway, continuing high sales in Sweden and a significant

    sales increase in Denmark compared to Q2. Finally, Finland

    delivered it’s second best quarter ever with 334 EVs sold.

    COUNTRIES’ SHARE OF THE TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK

    • This quarter saw Sweden increase its share of the total

    stock by 0,5%, while Norway and Denmark dropped by

    0,25%. This is the third quarter in a row where the Danish

    share of the stock has dropped.

    • Sweden and Finland continued the positive sales trend, as

    both countries had their second best quarters, while Norway

    had a record selling quarter for the third time in a row.

    Danish sales increased with 154% compared to Q2.

    • Insero expects Sweden, Finland and possibly Denmark to

    acquire market share from Norway during the coming

    quarters, as EV sales seem to have stabilized in Norway.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ STOCK OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES

    NO

    FI

    SE

    DK

    75%

    17%

    NO

    DK

    6%FI

    2%

    SW

    18.529

    40.623

    74.883

    108.569

    834428 7.923

    25.48316.1871.5969.905

    9.026

    7.926

    1.124

    3.185

    2013

    NO

    DK

    145.562

    23.573

    2015

    2.484

    2014

    1.479

    ytd 2016

    +45%

    FI

    SW

    52.565

    100.475

    2010

    4.2273.351

    2009

    2.749 3.070

    2012

    3.524

    2011

    1.54612.8716.940

    5.387

  • 15

    EV & PHEV SALES PER YEAR

    • Danish EV sales increased with 154% compared to Q2, and

    has returned as the third best EV country in the Nordic

    region. Both Sweden and Finland have already exceeded

    their 2015 sales, and Norway is expected to surpass 2015

    sales by mid-October. Following the current trend, Danish

    EV sales are expected to surpass 2014 sales.

    • Norway delivered its best quarter ever – slightly higher than

    Q2 2016. Sweden and Finland had their second best

    quarters ever, while Denmark had their best quarter since

    Q4 2015. Generally, Danish sales are similar to Q1 and Q2

    2015, which indicates that the Danish EV market is

    stabilizing after the introduction 20% registration tax.

    COUNTRIES’ SHARE OF SALES YTD 2016

    • In 2016 Norway accounted for 75% of the electric vehicle

    sales in the Nordic Region.

    • In contrast to Q2, Sweden has increased its share of sales

    from 20% to 21%, whereas Finland and Denmark’s share

    remain more or less unchanged.

    • Norway’s percentage dropped from 76% in Q2 to 75% in

    Q3, and Insero expects it to drop further over the next

    quarters, with Sweden taking most of that market share.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ ANNUAL SALES OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, 2009-2016 YTD

    SW

    75%

    DKFI

    2%

    NO

    21%

    2%

    NO

    FI

    SE

    DK

    Nordic │ Norway saw record sales in Q3, while Sweden and Finland had their

    second best quarters. Denmark had their best quarter since Q4 2015, and has

    returned as the third best EV country in the Nordic region.

    4.7018.624

    20.254

    34.26033.686

    9.2968.2644.701

    2.244

    4.741

    434

    2016

    1.100

    27.020

    2014

    45.087

    1.005

    47.910

    2013

    406

    2015

    645

    10.909

    1.474

    1.659

    2010

    801859

    2012

    5232.907

    629

    2011

    6.228

    2009

    489

  • 16

    Denmark │ The effects of the frontloading of sales in Q4 2015 have disappeared, as Q3 sales increased with

    154% compared to Q2. B- and C-segment sales grew significantly and accounted for 92% of Q3 sales alongside

    PHEVs. These three segments are expected to perform very well in Q4.

    EV SALES 2016

    • YTD sales have dropped with 19,8% compared to the same

    period in 2015, which is a significant improvement

    compared to Q2. The effects of the frontloading of sales in

    Q4 2015 seem now to have disappeared, as sales have

    reached a level similar to Q1 and Q2 in 2015.

    • The B-, C- and PHEV-segments are driving sales, as they

    accounted for 92% in Q3 and 84% of YTD sales.

    • The B- and PHEV-segments are expected to perform well in

    the coming quarters as the introduction of new, improved

    models, presumably, will drive sales up.

    SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)

    • The B-segment increased its market share from 18% to

    29%, as Renault Zoe sales increased to 228 vehicles in Q3,

    due to new car sharing companies focusing on this model.

    • The C-segment increased from 5% to 16% with massive

    BMW i3 registrations, while the A-segment decreased from

    7% to 3%.

    • The E-segment continues to drop, from 10% to 5% in Q3.

    which indicates some cannibalization between Tesla

    vehicles, as the J-segment and Model X accounted for

    similar sales.

    • The Van segment dropped slightly again from 4% to 3%.

    • The PHEVs account for 39% of 2016 YTD sales, which is a

    decrease of 12% compared to Q2. However, PHEV sales is

    still increasing, and the drop in market share should be seen

    as a result of a significant increase in BEV sales.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2016

    E-segment D-segment

    B-segment

    5%

    39%

    A-segment

    3%

    PHEV

    C-segment0%

    16%

    J-segment

    Van-segment

    5%

    29%

    3%

    The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below).

    426

    18172

    123

    12291

    368

    175

    150

    103

    756322

    236198

    Mar-16

    94

    Feb-16Jan-16

    57

    apr-16Q1

    54

    71

    Q2

    57

    94

    1.100

    Q3 2016

    1.372

    YTD 2015

    YTD 2016

    616315

    sep-16

    52

    aug-16

    88

    242114

    Jun-16

    213

    jul-16Maj-16

    242

    D-segment

    Van-segment

    B-segment

    PHEV

    E-segment

    A-segment

    C-segment

    J-segment

  • 17Norway │ Norway sets new sales record by 259 vehicles, as PHEV sales remain high despite a little sales drop.

    BEV sales increased with 8% compared to Q2, as C- and J-segment sales increased considerably.

    EV SALES 2016

    • The Norwegian EV sales YTD 2016 are 34% higher than in

    2015, which is still some way from the 77% increase in

    2015. Following the trends in Q1 – Q3 2016, it seems that

    EV sales has stabilized in Norway. Compared to 2015,

    PHEVs account for a significantly larger proportion of total

    sales.

    • For the second consecutive quarter, Norway breaks the

    11,000 milestone, making Q3 2016 the best selling quarter

    ever.

    • With the rise in sales over the quarter, Norway is on its way

    to break even more records, and Insero does not expect

    quarters with less than 10,000 vehicles sold going forward.

    SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)

    • As mentioned in Q2, J-segment sales has affected E-

    segment sales, as the J-segment market share has

    increased with 2%, whereas the E-segment has decreased

    with 1% indicating cannibalization among Tesla Models.

    • The PHEV-segment is still gaining market share, as it

    increased by another 1,5%, while both the A-, B- and C-

    segment decreasing with 1%.

    • The van- and D-segment market shares remained

    unchanged throughout the quarter.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016

    The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)

    Van-segment

    47%

    2%

    E-segment

    5%D-segment

    J-segment

    2%

    PHEV

    7%

    A-segment

    32% C-segment

    0%

    4%B-segment

    2.042

    4.196

    10.719

    2.4683.383

    Q2

    5.736

    Jun-16

    33.6864.587 11.411

    3.826

    jul-16

    5.550

    3.243

    Mar-16

    11.974

    2.470

    15.787

    2.998

    11.152

    3.140

    aug-16

    3.645

    Q3 2016 YTD 2016

    799

    +34%

    YTD 2015

    25.181

    5.065

    3.240

    Q1Jan-16

    2.863

    4.267

    4.501

    Apr-16 sep-16

    2.22411.123

    Maj-16

    3.555

    4.705

    Feb-16

    E-segment

    J-segment

    B-segment

    PHEV

    Van-segment

    C-segment

    D-segment

    A-segment

  • 18

    Sweden│Q3 continued the strong PHEV trend in Sweden, however, the change in the Super Green Car Rebate seems

    to drive sales from PHEVs to BEVs, as PHEV sales decreased with 10%. BEV sales remained at a level similar to Q2.

    September was the best selling month ever indicating that both BEV and PHEV sales will grow in Q4.

    EV SALES 2016

    • 2016 YTD sales increased with 87% compared to 2015

    YTD sales, despite Q3 sales decreasing with 9% compared

    to Q2. Swedish EV sales in 2016 has already exceeded the

    total EV sales in 2015.

    • PHEVs accounted for 80% of sales in Q3, whereas they

    accounted for 81,3% in Q2, which indicates that the

    Swedish EV market, slowly, is moving towards BEVs.

    • Especially the VW Passat GTE and Mitsubishi Outlander

    PHEV continue to perform very well, with a small increase in

    Passat sales, and a small decrease in Outlander sales.

    SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)

    • PHEVs continue to have a strong market share and are up

    another 1%, now accounting for 77% of the market. This

    happened despite a 10% decrease in PHEV sales.

    • The E-segment has stopped the negative trend and

    increased from 6% to 7%.

    • The C-segment and B-segment continues to drop, while the

    A-segment remains with a 1% share of sales.

    • The J-segment has gained a 1% market share with the

    introduction of the Tesla model X. In contrast to Norway,

    there seems to be no cannibalization among Tesla’s

    models, as both the E- and J-segment saw sales increases.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016

    D-segment

    B-segment

    3%

    9%

    7%

    77%

    PHEV

    1%

    Van-segment

    J-segment

    C-segment

    0%

    1%

    E-segment

    1%

    A-segment

    The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)

    779

    865

    720

    620

    828

    3.045

    1.086

    1.420

    Apr-16

    924

    aug-16

    1.175

    May -16

    3.743

    jul-16Jun-16

    988

    1.343

    Q2

    1.225

    628

    Jan-16

    1.253 2.143

    262

    Feb-16 Q1Mar-16

    2.730

    269

    1.500

    +87%

    Q3 2016 YTD 2015

    YTD 2016

    9.294

    289

    1.021

    sep-16

    4.974

    7.195

    2.685

    318

    3.410

    Van-segment

    J-segment

    PHEV

    E-segment

    D-segment

    A-segment

    C-segment

    B-segment

  • 19

    Finland │ Finland had their second best quarter in Q3 and is still dominated by PHEVs accounting for 84% of total

    EV sales in 2016 sales. Tesla Model X entered the Finnish EV market in September, and is expected to increase

    BEV sales in Q4. Finnish YTD sales are close to Danish YTD sales, which was inconceivable just a year ago.

    EV SALES 2016

    • Finland has more than doubled its sales in the first three

    quarters of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 with

    a growth rate of 105%

    • Finland saw a sales increase of 19% compared to Q2, and

    came close to the record sales in Q1. Despite the significant

    sales increases, there is still room for improvement, and

    Insero expects Finland to at least maintain the current

    growth rate.

    • Finnish EV sales is still driven by PHEVs, which accounted

    for more than 84% of sales in Q3.

    SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)

    • PHEVs continued to gain market share in Q3, as the

    segment increased from 83% of sales in Q2 to 84% in Q3.

    Finland has the largest share of PHEV sales within the

    Nordic region.

    • The E-segment remained at a 7% market share, which

    emphasizes that Tesla is experiencing difficulties in

    penetrating the Finnish EV market.

    • The C-segment drops another 1%, now representing 7% of

    2016 YTD sales.

    • The J-segment has entered the market with the registration

    of 14 Tesla model X in September, which is expected to

    grow in Q4.

    2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016

    1%

    D-segmentVan-segment

    J-segment0%

    PHEV

    84%

    E-segment

    7%

    B-segment

    0%7%

    0%

    C-segmentA-segment

    0%

    The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)

    127

    97

    312

    76

    71

    100

    247

    94

    71

    117

    282

    841

    309

    88

    116

    70

    55

    73

    334

    aug-16

    80

    mar-16 jun-16feb-16 Q1 jul-16maj-16

    104

    113

    apr-16

    390

    161

    88

    jan-16 YTD 2015

    +105%

    83

    sep-16

    105

    281

    YTD 2016

    Q3 2016

    125

    490

    Q2

    146 1.005

    Van-segment

    E-segment

    PHEV

    J-segment

    D-segment

    C-segment

    B-segment

    A-segment

  • 20DAGSORDEN

    HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03

    INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05

    UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09

    INCITAMENTER SIDE 17

  • 21

    Nordic │ The Nordic countries have added no new significant incentives in Q3, however, Norway has announced

    that the current tax incentives will stay in place at least until 2018. Danish politicians and the minister for taxation

    are talking about a green car rebate of up to 5360€ for the first 1000 vehicles sold to private customers.

    • Norway has launched no new incentives compared

    to Q2. However, the Norwegian government has

    decided that the current tax incentives will stay in

    place until at least 2018, and announced that local

    governments will decide incentives such as waivers

    on access restrictions and free parking from 2017.

    • In Denmark, there has been no changes to the tax

    incentives structure since Q2. However, the Danish

    politicians are discussing the introduction of new

    financial incentives for the first 1.000 vehicles sold to

    private customers. The green car rebate will consist

    of a subsidy of up to 5360€ funded by the Danish

    Government and car importers. From January 2017,

    the registration tax reduction will be reduced to 60%.

    • In Sweden, there have been added no new

    incentives since Q2. The Super Green Car Rebate

    remains unchanged, and Sweden is still planning to

    introduce new tax reductions for low-emission cars

    and adding taxes for high emission cars.

    • In Finland, BEV owners pay only 2.5% in registration

    tax compared to 5% in 2015, and are eligible to pay

    the minimum rate (5%) of the CO2-based ownership

    tax.

    5. INCENTIVES | COMPARISON OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND CONVENIENCE INCENTIVES

    Overview of incentives

    Specific incentives

    Tax incentives

    Financial incentives

    Convenience incentives

    Denmark

    Norway

    Sweden

    Finland

    Tax incentives

    Financial incentives

    Convenience incentives

    Denmark 80% reduction in registration tax

    Tax exemption for FCEV

    Tax reduction (0,13 EUR per kWh) for businesses

    EV subsidies for business and municipalities.

    Reserved parking spaces for EVs

    Differentiated prices

    Norway Registration tax exemption

    VAT exemption Road tax exemption Reduced company car tax

    (50%) Exemption from VAT

    (25%) on leasing

    Free parking spaces Toll road exemption Free public charging Higher mileage allowance No charges on ferries

    Bus lane driving Reserved parking spaces Fast charging station every

    50 km on all main roads by 2017

    Sweden Vehicle tax exemption for 5 years*

    Company tax benefits

    Super Green Car Rebate. EV: Max €4,500. PHEV: Max €2,200**

    None

    Finland Registration tax reduction (BEV buyer pays 2,5%)

    Ownership tax benefits

    Cheaper parking/ Free parking

    None

    *all Euro 5 or 6 level emission vehicles

    **a subsidy of 35% of the price difference between a low-emission vehicle and a comparable conventional vehicle

  • 22UDSKIFTNINGSPOTENTIALE I A-SEGMENTET

    e-Up!’en i A-segmentet kan ikke konkurrere med den

    konventionelle udgave af Up!’en. Ved en ejerperiode på mellem

    3 og 8 år. Er der ikke situationer hvor den elektriske Up! Vil

    være billigere end den konventionelle. Dog er forskellen

    minimal når vi kigger på 6-8 årige ejerperioder, hvor der er 1-5

    øre forskel pr. km. Hvis vi kiggede udover de første 8 år vil E-

    Up!’en sandsynligvis være en anelse billigere hvis man kører

    30.000 Km om året, men det vil være marginalt. Som et resultat

    af dette, kan der ikke identificeres et udskiftningspotentiale i A-

    segmentet under de opstillede forudsætninger. Det er dog

    samtidig et af de mindre segmenter i virksomhedsflåderne, og

    det er derfor ikke nogen overraskelse af udskiftningspotentialet

    er så småt.

    Vi har her valgt at sammenligne e-Up! med en High Up!. Som

    det fremgår af tabellen er en e-Up! økonomisk attraktiv allerede

    fra 3 års ejerskab, såfremt man kører min. 30.000 km om året.

    Hvis man ejer bilen i 5-7 år er den økonomisk attraktiv hvis man

    i gennemsnit kører 25.000 km om året. Endelig er den

    økonomisk attraktiv allerede fra 20.000 km om året ved 8 års

    ejerskab. Den vil altså aldrig blive økonomisk mere attraktiv

    end en konventionel bil i A-segmentet hvis man kører 15.000

    km om året i gennemsnit. Årsagen er den noget højere

    indkøbspris og den højere afskrivning der ikke kompenseres i

    tilstrækkelig grad af de lavere driftsomkostninger.

    11.401 7.907 19.308 Leasing

    Køb

    e-Up!-High-Up Køb Leasing

    3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3

    15.000 0,55 0,48 0,41 0,36 0,31 0,27 15.000 0,53 0,69

    20.000 0,36 0,31 0,26 0,22 0,18 0,15 20.000 0,33 0,45

    25.000 0,24 0,20 0,16 0,13 0,10 0,08 25.000 0,21 0,31

    30.000 0,15 0,11 0,08 0,05 0,03 0,01 30.000 0,11 0,19

    Andel der kan skiftes ud Andel der kan skiftes ud

    3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3

    15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 - -

    20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 - -

    25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 - -

    30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 - -

    Total antal der kan skiftes ud Total antal der kan skiftes ud

    7.907 3 4 5 6 7 8 11.401 2 3

    15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0

    20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0

    25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0

    30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0

    Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0

    I alt 0 i alt 0

    Rød betyder at elbilen er

    dyrere end den

    sammenlignelige

    konventionelle bil

    Grøn betyder at elbilen er

    billigere end den

    sammenlignelige

    konventionelle bil

  • 23UDSKIFTNINGSPOTENTIALE I B-SEGMENTET

    I B-segmentet findes den største forskel mellem konventionelle

    biler og elbiler. En Renault Zoe er væsentlig dyrere pr. km. end

    en Renault Clio. Ved 3 års eereskab er merprisen pr. km. 51-

    91 ører. Selv ved 8 års ejerskab er merprisen pr. km stadig min.

    40 øre pr. km. Dette er et resultat af den underliggende

    forretningsmodel hvor man kontinuerligt betaler leje af batteriet

    i en Zoe. Forskellen i omkostninger er så stor at der ikke er

    noget økonomisk incitament til at købe en elbil i b-segmentet,

    tværtimod er der et kraftigit incitament til at lade være.

    Samlet set betyder det at der ikke kan identificeres ét

    udskiftningspotentiale i dette segment, baseret på listepriser.

    Her har vi valgt at sammenligne en Renault Zoe med en

    Renault Clio. Som det fremgår af tabellen er en Renault Zoe

    ikke økonomisk attraktiv hvis man kører under 30.000 km og

    ejer bilen i højest 8 år. på trods af den relativt kompetitive

    indkøbspris kan en Zoe ikke anbefales som køb ud fra en

    streng økonomisk betragtning. Årsagen er Renaults

    forretningsmodel med batterileje, der gør at

    driftsomkostningerne er meget høje sammenlignet med andre

    elbiler. til gengæld kan en Zoe lade hurtigere end andre elbiler

    ved almindelige ladestandere, hvilket gør det muligt at køre

    flere km pr. år. Dog ikke nok til at den bliver billigere.

    19.909 11.440 31.349 Leasing

    Køb

    Zoe-Clio Køb Leasing

    3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3

    15.000 0,91 0,85 0,80 0,76 0,72 0,68 15.000 0,12 0,23

    20.000 0,72 0,67 0,64 0,60 0,57 0,55 20.000 0,11 0,19

    25.000 0,57 0,54 0,51 0,48 0,46 0,44 25.000 0,08 0,14

    30.000 0,51 0,48 0,46 0,43 0,41 0,40 30.000 0,08 0,14

    Andel der kan skiftes ud

    3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3

    15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0

    20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0

    25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0

    30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0

    Total antal der kan skiftes ud Total antal der kan skiftes ud

    11.440 3 4 5 6 7 8 19.909 2 3

    15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0

    20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0

    25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0

    30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0

    Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0

    I alt 0 i alt 0

    Andel

    der kan

    Rød betyder at elbilen er

    dyrere end den

    sammenlignelige

    konventionelle bil

    Grøn betyder at elbilen er

    billigere end den

    sammenlignelige

    konventionelle bil

  • 24INSERO QUARTERLY

    A quarterly publication visually presenting and

    analysing:

    • En aftagende vækst i Norge (stor vækst de sidste

    3 år, stadig relativt få modeller)

    • En stigende vækst I Finland (, mindre

    gennembrud I år, dog afhænger væksten af

    incitamenter)

    • Yderligere vækst I Sverige (incitamenter er

    stabile, der er mange PHEV modeller)

    • Stor stigning I andelen af PHEVs i Danmark

    (mindre vækst i rene elbiler medmindre der laves

    om på nuværende afgiftssystem)

    • Sammenlagt forventer vi at elbiler og Plug-in

    Hybrider vil udgøre mere end 10% af salget i

    Norden i 2017

    INSERO FORVENTER:

  • TAK FOR OPMÆRKSOMHEDEN

    Søren Bernt Lindegaard

    +45 41 77 24 69

    [email protected]