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WebCT

Everybody should have access to WebCT by nowLog on at webcourses.dit.ieIf you can’t get onto the course pages just let me knowWebCT will be used for publishing the notes, communicating with the class and for on-line discussions

Course Website: http://www.comp.dit.ie/bmacnamee

Problem Solving, Communication

& Innovation:Thinkertoys,

Force Field Analysis & S.W.O.T. Analysis

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Where Do We Go From Here?

Where do we go from here?– Generate some more ideas– Evaluate possible plans of action

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Contents

Following on from the brainstorming that we did last week, let’s take a look at some things we can do to help idea generation, and to try to decide which ideas to follow up on

– Thinkertoys• False Faces (Reversals)• Cherry Split (Fractionation)• Slice & Dice (Attribute Listing)• Phoenix (Questions)

– Force Field Analysis– SWOT analysis

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Note About Usefulness

While we are pitching these ideas today as useful in conjunction with brainstorming, they are all useful in their own right as problem solving techniquesTry to keep this in mind as we consider them

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False Faces

Oftentimes the basic assumptions on which we build the solutions to problems prove not to be as rock solid as we thoughtReversing assumptions can be a very good way to stir creative thought about a problemThe false faces (or reversals) technique attempts to use this ideaB

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Historical False Faces Example

The predominate think-ing in manufacturing in the early 1900s was “bring the people to the work” Henry Ford reversed this to say “bring the work to the people” and perfected the assembly line

Historical Note: Henry Ford did not invent the assembly line. The assembly line was first patented in America by Ransom Eli Olds in 1901 but had been

invented in 1801 by Marc Isambard Brunel (Father of Isambard Kingdom Brunel).

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How To Use False Faces

The process of using false faces proceeds as follows:

– State your challenge– List your assumptions– Challenge your fundamental assumptions

• Reverse each assumption – write down the opposite of each one

– What new ideas are generated by the reversal?

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False Faces Example 1

Working for a large search engine company we have collected huge amounts of data on peoples’ search terms – what can we do with this data?Assumption: We should collect people’s search termsReversal: We should not collect people’s search terms New Idea: Offer a premium service, users of which will not have their data recorded

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False Faces Example 2

Easily distributed digital music is now a fact of life. As workers in a large music publishing company how can we turn this to our advantage?Assumption: Sell music to peopleReversal: Buy music from peopleNew Idea: Become a facilitator for new bands, paying them to make their music available for download online

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Cherry Split

Simple word association can often be used to generate ideasThis is the basis of the cherry split problem solving techniqueBy generating a collection of words around a problem we hope to stimulate new ideas using the words and combinations of the wordsB

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How To Use Cherry Split

The cherry split technique is used as follows:

– State the essence of your problem in two words

– Put these two words onto a diagram– Split each word into two attributes associated

with that word add these to the diagram– Continuing splitting attributes (adding them to

the diagram) until you have a good collection– Examine each attribute for ideas– Try reassembling the attributes

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Cherry Split Example

The publisher of a sports magazine had the problem: “How do I extend the market for my sports magazine?”

Sports

Magazine

Children

Adults

Subscription

Advertising

Young Athletes

School

Male

Female

Individual

Group

Mass Market

Special Markets

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Cherry Split Example (cont…)

The publishers connected magazine, children, school, subscription and young athletes together to generate the idea to add a kids section to their magazine and sell subscriptions through schools

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Slice & Dice

Often by seeing the bigger picture of a problem, we are blinded to the details of the problemThe slice & dice technique attempts to generate new ideas around a problem by focusing on the details of the problem

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How many faces?

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How To Use Slice & Dice

The process of using slice & dice proceeds as follows:

– State your challenge– Analyse the challenge and list as many

attributes as possible– Take each attribute, one at a time, and try to

think of ways to change or improve it• How can this be accomplished?• Why does it have to be this way?

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Generating Attributes

To help think up attributes related to a problem try using the following attribute categories:

– Descriptive – colour, shape, sound…– Process – manufacturing, selling, time…– Social – responsibilities, taboos…– Price – retail cost, manufacturing cost…– Ecological – positive/negative effects…

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Slice & Dice Example

AB Bacho tools of Sweden wee considering the design of screwdriversUsing Slice & Dice they came up with the following list of attributes:

– Round– Steel shank– Wooden handle

By considering the “manually operated” attribute they invented the Bacho Ergo screwdriver which is designed to be used by both hands and made millions!

– Wedge-shaped end– Manually operated– Used for tightening/loosening screws

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Phoenix

Using directed questions can be a great way to stimulate new ideas about a problemBut thinking up the right questions can be hard!Phoenix is a checklist of questions developed by the CIA to encourage agents to look at problems from different angles

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How To Use Phoenix

The phoenix technique is used as follows– Write your challenge– Pick questions from the Phoenix list to ask

about the challenge– Record your answers

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The Phoenix QuestionsWhy is it necessary to solve the problem?What benefits will you gain by solving the problem?What is the unknown?What is it you don’t yet understand?What is the information you have?What isn’t the problem?Is the information sufficient? Or is it insufficient? Or is it redundant? Or is it contradictory?Should you draw a diagram of the problem?What are the boundaries of the problem?Can you separate the various parts of the problem? What are the relationships of the parts of the problem?What are the constants of the problem?Have you seen this problem before?Have you seen this problem in a slightly different form?

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The Phoenix Questions (cont…)Do you know a related problem?Can you think of a familiar problem having the same or similar unknown?Can you restate your problem? More general? More specific? Can the rules be changed?What are the best , worst and most probable cases you can imagine?Can you solve the whole problem? Part of the problem?What would you like the resolution to be? Can you picture it?How much of the unknown can you determine?Can you derive something useful form the information that you have?Have you used all of the information?Have you taken into account all essential notions in the problem?Can you separate the steps in the problem-solving process? Can you determine the correctness of each step?Can you see the result? How many different kinds of results can you see?How many different ways have you tried to solve the problem?

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The Phoenix Questions (cont…)What have others done?Can you intuit the solution? Can you check the result?What should be done? How should it be done?Where should it be done?When should it be done?Who should do it?What do you need to do at this time?Who will be responsible for what?Can you use this problem to solve another problem?What is the unique set of qualities that makes this problem what it is and no other?What milestones can best mark your progress?How will you know when you are successful?

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Phoenix Summary

The Phoenix questions are not perfect, but are definitely useful

– Also useful for more general problem solving

The key is having a list of questions ready and to handConsider adding your own questions to the list

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Exercises

Try out one of the techniques (maybe false faces followed by cherry split) on each of the following problems – what new ideas can you come up with?

Working for a large search engine company we have collected huge amounts of data on

peoples’ search terms – what can we do with this data?

Easily distributed digital music is now a fact of life. As workers in a large music publishing

company how can we turn this to our advantage?

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Force Field Analysis

Force field analysis is a technique for looking at the forces for and against a decision

– A formal method for weighing up pros and cons

Used for many purposes (particularly change management) force filed analysis is useful for:

– Determining whether a selected course of action is possible

– Determining the actions needed to follow a course of action

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Kurt Lewin (1890 – 1947)

Born in 1890 in Mogilno, PolandRecognized as the founder of modern social psychology Founded the Research Centre for Group Dynamics at M.I.T.His work focused on explaining group dynamics and included developing the notions of life-space, action research and the force field analysis technique

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Force Field Analysis Diagram

4Driving Forces Restraining Forces

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Decision S

tatement

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Force Field Analysis

To perform a force field analysis perform the following steps

– Describe your plan or proposal for change in the middle of the diagram

– List all driving forces for change in one column

– List all restraining forces against change in the other column

– Assign a score from 1 (weak) to 5 (strong) to each force

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What Are Forces?

Anything that affects a decision can be considered a forceTypical forces often focus on:

– Costs– Staff– Systems/IT– Environmental issues

Always be careful when giving force strengths – don’t fudge it!

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Force Field Analysis Example

Imagine that we are the manager of Dublin County Choppers Ltd and we are considering installing a new machine for spraying motorbike parts – previously a job done by handWhat are the forces affecting this decision?

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Force Field Analysis Example (cont…)

4Driving Forces Restraining Forces

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Decision S

tatement

Customers want better paint jobs

Improve speed of production

Raise output volumes

Control maintenance costs

Disruption

Cost

Environmental impact

Loss of staff overtime

Staff frightened of new technology

TOTAL: 10 TOTAL: 11

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What Do We Do With The Analysis?

Once we have carried out our analysis what can we do?Determine if the project is viable

– Is it worth going ahead with the plan?

Try to improve the probability of success:– Increase the strength of the driving forces

FOR the project– Decrease the strength of the restraining

forces AGAINST the project

Record tasks required to enact changes

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Changing The Forces

Force field diagrams can always be revised– Adding new forces– Adjusting force strength based on planned

actions

Watch Out: Adjusting one force can often have knock on effects on other forces

– For example, if we decide to give our staff some more training to reduce their fear of new technology this will also increase the cost of the project

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Returning To Our Example

We might simply decide that the plan is not worth going ahead with!However, we might also consider some changes to make the initial plan more viable

– Training staff (increase cost, +1) eliminate fear of technology (reduce fear, -2)

– Show staff that change is necessary for business survival (new force FOR, +2)

– Raise wages to reflect new productivity (cost +1, loss of overtime -2)

– Choose environmentally-friendly machines (eliminate environmental impact, -1)

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Returning To Our Example (cont…)

4Driving Forces Restraining Forces

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Decision S

tatement

Customers want better engines

Improve speed of production

Raise output volumes

Control maintenance

costs

Disruption

Cost

Loss of staff overtime

Staff frightened of new technology

TOTAL: 12 TOTAL: 8

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Change is necessary

•Train staff•Show machines are necessary

•Raise wages•Enviro-friendly

machines

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Force Field Analysis Example

Let’s try to do a force field analysis of one of the suggestions classified as excellent after our brainstorming session

“Downloads give concert discounts”So let’s consider going ahead with the idea that when people pay to download an album they get a discount on upcoming concert tickets for their city

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Force Field Analysis Summary

Force field analysis is a formal way in which to record the pros and cons associated with pursuing an ideaIt can be used after brainstorming to evaluate ideas considered worth pursuing (or any other decision we have to make)Force field analysis is quite subjectiveIt is important that we are honest when listing pros and cons and their strengths as otherwise the analysis becomes a sham

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Force Field Analysis Exercise

A mature student is thinking of enrolling in a new evening coursePerform a force field analysis outlining the forces for and againstEvaluate, and if necessary, modify your plan

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S.W.O.T. Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities ThreatsUsed for many tasks (often to review high-level strategy), SWOT analysis can be used to evaluate promising ideas emerging out of a brainstorming session

“The SWOT analysis is an extremely useful tool for understanding and decision-making for all sorts of situations in business

organizations or institutions” Albert S Humphrey

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Origins Of S.W.O.T. Analysis

SWOT analysis emerged from an effort in the 1960s by the Stanford Research Institute to understand why corporate planning failedThe research was funded by the Fortune 500 companies and led by Marion Dosher, Dr. Otis Benepe, Albert Humphrey, Robert Stewart and Birger LieThe researchers performed an extremely large study involving over 1,000 companies and 5,000 executives

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Origins Of S.W.O.T. Analysis (cont…)

Unanimous opinion at the time was that corporate planning in the shape of long range planning was not working, did not pay off, and was an expensive investment in futilityOriginal technique was Satisfactory Opportunity Fault Threat analysis but was changed early on to SWOT

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How Do We Do It?

In a SWOT analysis we list the positives and negatives surrounding an idea and how it relates to our enterprise using the categories Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and ThreatsStrengths and Weaknesses are considered internal to our enterprise and things that we have control overOpportunities and Threats are considered external to our enterprise and things that we do not have control over

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The S.W.O.T. Template

InternalFactors Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities ThreatsExternalFactors

Positive Negative

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Strengths

What is it about the idea that makes it attractive?Examples:

– Competitive advantages? – Unique selling points? – Resources, assets, people? – Experience, knowledge, data? – Likely financial returns?– Location and geography? – Philosophy and values?

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Weaknesses

What are the disadvantages of the idea?Examples:

– Gaps in capabilities? – Financials? – Timescales, deadlines and pressures? – Effects on core activities, distraction? – Morale, commitment, leadership? – Processes and systems?

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Opportunities

In your current environment what are the external factors which promote the idea?Examples:

– Competitors’ vulnerabilities? – Industry or lifestyle trends? – Technology development and innovation? – Global influences? – Niche target markets? – Partnerships? – Seasonal, fashion influences?

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Threats

What external features of your current environment could negatively affect the idea?Examples:

– Political effects? – Legislative effects?– Environmental effects?– IT developments?– Competitor intentions - various? – New technologies, services, ideas? – Economy - home, abroad?

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Intentions Of S.W.O.T. Analysis

We look at the categories with the following intentions:

– Strengths: to build on, maintain and leverage

– Weaknesses: to cover, remedy or exit– Opportunities: to capture, prioritise and

optimise– Threats: to defend against, counter

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Aims Of S.W.O.T. Analysis

SWOT analysis aims to:– Reveal the competitive advantages of an idea– Analyse the prospects an idea has for

success– Prepare for any problems associated with

pursuing an idea– Allow for the development of contingency

plans around an idea

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S.W.O.T. Analysis Example

As an example of a SWOT analysis consider the idea of offering subscriptions to customers which allows them to freely stream any music from our artists as long as it is still in the charts

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S.W.O.T. Analysis Example (cont…)Strengths

Unique value proposition We have a big stable of artists to offer music fromWe are likely to bring in large numbers of subscriptionsWe do not actually give the music away – streaming only

WeaknessesMay take away from our traditional salesBig shift in our business model Difficulty in obtaining chart data

OpportunitiesPartner with hardware/software manufacturersOffer niche chartsPartner with chart providersPossible advertising revenue

ThreatsLegislation regarding who owns musicPossible that listeners will capture our streams – we’re giving away our musicCompetition may capitalise on the fact that more of their music is in the chartsRelying on chart data from someone elsePossible fixing of charts

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S.W.O.T. Analysis Of Companies/Individuals

SWOT analysis is also often used to perform high level audits of companies/individuals

– Defining the long term strategy for a company– Make a personal “5 year plan”

Let’s look at a simple example SWOT analysis of eBay

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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For eBay

Strengths– eBay is the leading global brand for online auctions

and has grown tremendously over the decade or so since its conception

– Business models• The company exploits the benefits of Customer Relationship

Management (CRM) - buyers and sellers register with the company and data is collected by eBay on individuals

• Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) business model - buyers and sellers leave feedback for each other, and whereby awards are given to the most genuine of eBayers

– The term 'eBay' has become a generic term for online auctions

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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For eBay (cont…)

Weaknesses– The eBay model does leave itself open to a

number of fraudulent activities – Systems breakdowns could disturb the

trading activities of eBay (and PayPal)

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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For eBay (cont…)

Opportunities– Acquisitions provide new business strategy

opportunities• eBay has bought Skype Technologies • eBay has been buying up firms (including PayPal)

in an effort to increase the number of services it offers to consumers and keep its profits growing

– New and emerging markets provide opportunities (e.g. China, India)

– There are also still opportunities in current markets

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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For eBay (cont…)

Threats– Success attracts competition. International

competitors competing in their domestic markets may have the cultural experience that could give them a competitive advantage over eBay (for example, Yahoo! dominates the Japanese market)

– Attack by illegal practices is a threat (e.g. fraud e-mails)

– Some costs (delivery charges, credit card charges) cannot be controlled by eBay. This could make the overall cost of an auctioned item too expensive

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When Doing S.W.O.T. Analysis…

Be realistic about your strengths and weaknessesSWOT should always be specific Always apply SWOT in relation to your competitionKeep your SWOT short and simple, avoid complexity and over analysis Keep in mind that SWOT is subjective

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S.W.O.T. Summary

SWOT analysis is another formal way to quantify the possible success/failure of pursuing an ideaSWOT is again very subjective – be carefulSWOT is also often used for more high-level planning

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Conclusions

In this lecture we covered the following:– Techniques to help generate ideas during

brainstorming• Thinkertoys

– Techniques to evaluate ideas arising out of brainstorming

• Force filed analysis• SWOT analysis

Remember that all of these techniques can be used in contexts other than that considered here

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Exercises

Try out the following exercises• Pick one of the excellent ideas from our

brainstorming session last week and perform a Force Field Analysis on it

• Pick one of the excellent ideas from last week’s brainstorming exercise and perform a SWOT analysis on it

• Perform a SWOT analysis on yourself (keep this one private if you prefer!)

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Force Field Analysis Template

4Driving Forces Restraining Forces

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S.W.O.T. Analysis TemplateStrengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats