We can’t predict the E-, so...

...what will learning be like in 2030?

Presentation at

Looking to the futureEspoo, 22.09.2008

Per Skafte Hansen, M.Sc., Ph.D., DPL, EBA, DL, internal coach in NeoConsult A/SOpening flash

A brief digression

At NeoConsult, the simplest kind of blended learning has been used in e.g. preparation of our project managers for the IPMA certification

This was described in a contribution to ‘Visualization in Learning’, Brandon-Hall 2008

The game plan

The presentation will touch upon

•Trends in technological development

•Authoring now and tomorrow

•Educational ‘paradigms’

- And there will be a conclusion of kinds

A table of contents

Looking at the unpredictable technological development goes against the title, but it is necessary for the rest to make sense...

Some predictions, though...

Technological predictions, after all

Robotics and especially robotic toys will be ‘hot’

Toys can now display a certain ‘learning’ ability

In the not-so-far future, they will also develop into teachers, tutors, mentors etc.

More on toys as teachers

The actors may be dolls, virtual figures, abstracts, etc.

In one configuration, the learner has a wise mentor and a ‘dummy’ to teach:

The learner-as-teacher set up is very powerful

Technological predictions, after all

Symmetric interfaces

The ultimate “pay pr. view” (-?-)

The author must think of content as separate from viewing and even from learning style

The learner can subscribe to “this (kind of) content in this view for this learning style”

Technological predictions, after all

Educational designs

Multiple presentation

styles

Content

Subsciptions

Viewing preferences

Learning style

Pervasive learning

There are some security and anonymity issues, but..

From improved user interfaces to full narration:

Things will tell you what they are, their history and how to use them; and they will adapt to what you like to learn about (data mining)

Technological predictions, after all

More predictions

Brain research will influence all competence development

Learning itself may remain too high-level for progress to make itself felt in the next 20 years

But processes and their stimuli will be far better understood

Technological predictions, after all

Other technologies

Some are just media, others far-fetched possibilities

Voice interfaces

Large, interactive screens

Video conferencing

Sleep research

Non-invasive biometrics (-!?-)

Technological predictions, after all

The Hollywood Syndrome

A recent mini-report from Brandon-Hall, E-learning 101, listed the disciplines

•Content expertise (the subject matter)•Pedagogy [PSH: or Knowles’ “Andragogy”]•Instructional Design•Course Development•Presentation•Graphic Design•Project Management

(J. Clarey, re-ordering by PSH)

Authoring

Clearly, this calls for team efforts

The question is: who will pay for the devlopment of the individual skills and the gathering of teams?

A warning

Just as the PC and later the Internet created “computer illiteracy”, advanced e-learning may create “learning illiteracy”, since:

•Learning interactively is an acquired skill

•This kind of e-learning will be composed and developed under the spell of the Engineering Spirit...

...Yet another version of C.P. Snow’s Two Worlds

This warning actually grew out of the work with this presentation:

The worry has been there for a while, here it takes on a shape

Authoring

Low cost authoring

From an e-learning refresher course in mathematics

Tools, perhaps intended for other uses, are becoming cheap – even free – and powerful

Add to this the open standards for e.g. Storage formats and the free access to an indefinite amount of data

Authoring

Impact on learning

There is both a warning to issue and a joyful message to announce:

•The high complexity/low cost divide will – more than ever before – subject learning to market forces. “People do not always buy what they need. They always buy what they want” W.T. Brooks

•With low cost authoring, no end of brilliant grass-root inventions and developments will emerge

The first supports “Two Worlds”, the second goes against

Whether there will be a market for high priced (high production costs) e-learning will depend on the market success of the toys etc. – and on whether they are seen as educational

Authoring

And now: learning paradigms

Some paradigms of which I know nothing

•Second Life

•Learning games

•Edutainment

No lack of curiosity – but plenty of lack of time...

Paradigms

Second life seems to have its origin in the Make-belief of narration

Learning games existed long before e-learning

Edutainment is a wide category which includes popular science and museums

Social software

Very briefly

•FaceBook, MySpace etc. are “Look at me”-platforms with no moderation (in any sense) and hence no direction

•LinkedIn, Pulse etc. are “Look at me”s for professionals...

•Wikis, however, especially when used as intranets, are the CSCL systems of today

Wikis will probably merge with other ‘carrier’ software

These brief characterisations are almost bound to be unjust – but they attempt to draw an outline of what to expect over the next 20 years

Paradigms

The experimentarium

Half game, half simulator, this inherits from things like Meccano® or LEGO®

It may have ready-made challenges and it may be more or less ‘real’ or ‘realistic’; but:

It has some kind of ‘free mode’ where you can build your own course and machine (or whatever is simulated) and try out its effects

Add the Internet and multi-player participation, and...

I do not know the precise extent to which this is already a fact: SimCity®, Spore® and many others come fairly close

Paradigms

The armchair traveller

This is so obvious that I don’t understand why it is not already overwhelming us:

A hyperlinked multimedia presentation touring either a geograpical area or a more or less abstract subject (“The body”, “Historical paintings”, “Economy and history of the raw materials”) will allow you to sit in your chair and learn, at your own speed, at least the basic facts of exactly what you desire

Maybe we are just waiting for interactive television (-?-)

You will find this – and it also blends with some of the paradigms mentioned above – if you look for it: edutainment is a wide category

Paradigms

The Virtual Grand Tour

You have a map, a vehicle, a tutor, tasks, vistas, the lot

This is my own brain child, first developed with my friend Lars Mouritsen

I would tell you much more...

Paradigms

Conclusion, part I

Three technological trends to watch:

•Voice interfacing

•Robotics

•Brain research

The guide

NB: All three are “outside” e-learning, but will be huge

Conclusion

Conclusion, part II

Three techno-sociological trends to watch:

•Authoring developing into a team effort

•The ‘engineering mind set’ sneaking in

•The counter-move from low-cost authoring

The warning

So: we may move from a scattering to a divide

Conclusion

Conclusion, part III

Three educational paradigms to watch:

•The experimentarium

•Portfolio learning*

•The tour or travel

*I first had: The “look at this” knowledge sharing – but this is where I let hope take precedence

The happy thought

Each will make e-learning so much more fun

Conclusion

That’s all, folksThanks for now...

…and thank you for listening...