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PSRC Regional Truck Model Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015

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Page 1: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

PSRC Regional Truck Model

Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting

Suzanne Childress

Puget Sound Regional Council

April 21, 2015

Page 2: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

2

What can/can’t it do?

Inputs

How does it work?

Validation

Improvements

This presentation

Page 3: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

3

Levels of Transportation Modeling

Statewide

Regional

City

Corridor / Neighborhood

Facility / Street

Size

Daily

Peak Period/ Off Peak

Hours

Minutes

Seconds

Time

Page 4: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

4

Transportation Analysis Zones

Page 5: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Regional Truck Model Purpose

• A component of our regional travel demand

model

• Compare regional projects impacts on trucks

• Compare how policies impact aggregate

measures average speeds and volumes on

large facilities

• Forecast future volumes on large facilities

Page 6: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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9 am – 3 pm All Volumes Heavy Truck Volumes

Page 7: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Heavy Truck VolumesMedium Truck Volumes

Page 8: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Trip Activity Density

Page 9: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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More Outputs

Time Savings of projects

Number of Truck Trips

Truck Travel Times

Truck Toll Costs

Truck Vehicle Miles

Page 10: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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What can’t it tell us?

Unique behaviors at specific freight

distribution centers

How random road incidents impact truck

times

What kinds of goods are on the trucks

How the cost of delay depends on the types

of goods

Page 11: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

11

Inputs/Sensitivities

Highway network

Travel time

Amount and type of employment

Page 12: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Based on WSDOT’s FASTruck model

How does it work?

Trip GenerationHow many trips are there?

Trip DistributionWhere do they go?

Route AssignmentWhat paths do they use?

Trip Time of DayWhat time do they go?

Page 13: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Categories

Light commercial

small truck or car used for work purpose – 2 axles, <16k lbs

Medium trucks single-unit semi – 2-4 axles, 16k-52k lbs

Heavy trucks double/triple-unit semi – 5+ axles, >52k lbs

Page 14: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Trips Rates Differ by Employment Type

Page 15: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Trips Attraction Density Employment Density

Page 16: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Special Generators and Externals

Port of Seattle

Port of Tacoma

Warehouse and Distribution

Center in SR167 corridor

Page 17: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Volumes Validation

• 30 count locations – WSDOT Annual Traffic

Report

• Low spots at State Road 2 and I-5;

SR-512 and West Highway 7

Page 18: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Volume Validation

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Medium Heavy

Observed

Modeled

Page 19: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Truck Volumes Validation

Ensure the model uses correct links

For attractive and unattractive truck routes

Page 20: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Include Freight Network Restrictions

Page 21: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Compare Model to Observed Truck Percentages

Page 22: PSRC Regional Truck Model - Seattle€¦ · Seattle Freight Advisory Board Meeting Suzanne Childress Puget Sound Regional Council April 21, 2015. 2 What can/can’t it do? Inputs

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Near Term Improvements

• Add network restrictions and

refinements to make links attractive

or unattractive for trucks

• Calibrate the model to counts and

splits by truck type

• Obtain more counts and calibrate

• Look into new GPS truck data

sources like ATRI