psychohistory and developing a viable plan for humanity

8/6/2019 Psychohistory And Developing A Viable Plan For Humanity

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]sydalacstlry jfg Giviblpcfe j Pcjkbi ]bjf @lr

Auojfcty

Cf tai `crst klln C giviblp tai pribcocfjrcis tl jf lpirjtclfjbpsydalacstlry, tai sdcifdi `cdtclf cgij l` Csjjd Jscolv wairi tai ùturi djf

ki prigcdtig wcta ojta. Cf lrgir tl gl tajt lfi jbsl ajs tl ajvi j vcjkbipbjf `lr tai ùturi. Oy wlrn cf tajt jrij, js wibb js psydalacstlry cs cf tai

klln "Wai Bivcfslf Jscolv Dbjrni ]aifloiflf". Oy ìibcfe cs j vcjkbipbjf salubg ki j suddissùb "]rlhidt Eifiscs" wairi ]rlhidt Eifiscs wjs jfCgij cf lfi l` tai Ttjr Wrin olvcis, lr ivif kittir tai cgij l` Csjjd Jscolvl` "Ejcj" gisdrckig cf acs kllns "@lufgjtclf's Igei" jfg "@lufgjtclf jfgIjrta" wacda wiri tai siquibs tl acs "@lufgjtclf Wrcbley". Oy klln"]ribugis ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy" ojni dbijr sloi l` tai fujfdis cf "WaiBivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrn ]aifloiflf". Ijda l` taisi kllns djf ki rijg cf

tacs plst ky dbcdncfe lf taio.

Cjf KijrgsbiyHuby ;, ;=::


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]ribcocfjrcis @lr Jf Lpirjtclfjb ]sydalacstlry

Ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Dlpyrceat ;=:: ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy


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Waisi jri j dlbbidtclf l` issjys tajt strcvi tl bjylut tai

pribcocfjrcis tl giviblpcfe jf lpirjtclfjb psydalacstlry, wacda

wjs j sdcifdi `cdtclf cgij l` Csjjd Jscolv.


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Wai Fjturi l` tai Fjturi l` tai Yfcvirsi jfg Acstlry js j Fjturjb

@lrdi

Ky

Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Hufi 4=, ;=::


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J hlurfiy l` j talusjfg bc kiecfs wcta tai `crst stip.

Dacfisi prlvirk.


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Cf Talrt, tai jutalr sueeists tai drijtclf l` j `lrojb systio tajt

ixpbjcfs tai `lrojb systio tajt ixpbjcfs tai ufcvirsi (payscds).

Wacs wlubg ki cf tai rijbo l` Wai ]acblslpay l` Tdcifdi.

Js wibb wi siin jfg `cfg ivcgifdi cf supplrt `lr fjturjb dlfstjftstajt ajvi j fjturjb scefc`cdjfdi tajt wiri eifirjtig ky acstlrcdjb

`lrdis. Cf tacs pjpir, tajt vjbui cs tai gcstjfdi l` lfi ocbi.

Js wibb wi `lro tai rugcoifts l` prigcdtcfe tai `uturi wcta ojta,

j Tdcifdi @cdtclf grijo l` Csjjd Jscolv, cf sl `jr js wi ajvi

`lufg qujftctcis cf acstlry tajt prigcdt tai `uturi.


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Wai fjturi l` rijbcty cs klufg ky j dirtjcf strudturi elvirfig ky

rijslf. Wacs djusi l` jf lutdloi tajt ojtdais ixpircifdi ajs j

Fjturi ctsib`. Cf pjrtcdubjr wi blln jt tai tarii slbutclfs sai

([ijslf) prlvcgis `lr j payscdjb paifloiflf jfg taicr fjturi8

:.Wai spidcjb djsi slbutclf, wacda cs scopbir tl slbvi gui tliqujbctcis ibcocfjtcfe tai i``idts l` pjrtcdubjr payscdjb

ibioifts. Ct cs pridcsi, kut lfby wlrns cf lfi cfstjfdi.

;.Wai Eifirjb Djsi slbutclf, wacda cs ellg `lr jbb plssckcbctcisl` payscdjb ibioifts, wacda cs olri cfvlbvig tl slbvi, kut cs

pridcsi `lr jbb djsis.

4.Wai slbutclf cf cts jpprlxcojti `lro `lr jbb djsis, wacda cs

ijscir tl wlrn wcta tajf tai eifirjb slbutclf, kut cs bissjddurjti.

Ui usi Acstlry tl `cfg j spidcjb vjbui tajt ifjkbis us tl jpprljda

tai prlkbio aypltaisczcfe tajt tai vjbui cs cfgiig spidcjb kidjusi

acstlry djf jt tcois eifirjti fjturjb dlfstjfts l` fjturjb

scefc`cdjfdi, gui tl ufjsdirtjcfjkbi `lrdis wi aypltaisczi ixcst

jfg tajt, taisi dlfstjfts djf kidloi pjrt l` fjturjb bjw kjsig lf j

aypltaisczig vjbcgcty tl tibilblecdjb rijslfcfe.

Wai gcstjfdi wi tjni cs tai ocbi kidjusi ct cs jf Lbg Ifebcsa Yfct

tjnif tl ki lfi tacrg l` j bijeui, wacda wjs giioig tai gcstjfdi j

alrsi lr auojf dlubg wjbn cf jf alur, jf alur kicfe lfi twifty

`lurta l` tai tcoi ct tjnis `rlo sufrcsi tl sufrcsi cf Uistirf

Iurlpi. Js wibb, lfi twifty `lurta jfg lfi tacrg jri fjturjb

gcvcsclfs prlplrtclfig lut ky tai auojf psydai, c` flt prjdtcdjb cf

tiros l` djbifgjrs ojgi tl wlrn wcta dibistcjb `jdtlrs cfvlbvcfe

tai suf, ollf, jfg ijrta cf tai djsi l` tai `lroir. Ui aypltaisczi

tajt suda gcstjfdis ajvi fjturjb scefc`cdjfdi gui tl taicr fjturjb

lrcecfs klta payscdjb jfg psydalblecdjb.


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Wai prlkbio cf payscds tajt C ajvi dalsif tl slbvi cs tacs8 J

rjdidjr cs lf j dcrdubjr trjdn cfdbcfig jt jf jfebi l` taitj jfg lfi

ocbi cf dcrduo`irifdi. Wai dl-i``cdcift l` `rcdtclf cs :.;, wacda ajs

kiif gitirocfig ky ixpircoift `lr jspajbt jfg dlfdriti. Jt wajt

spiig djf tai rjdidjr el wctalut `bycfe l`` tai trjdn

^(vifus lrkct)/(ijrta lrkct)_^(ijrta ojss)/(ojrs ojss)_ ? 5.;


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Tloi l` tai olst cftiristcfe lddurrifdis l` 4.5 cf fjturi jri8

^(vlbuoi l` sjturf)/(vlbuoi l` Hupctir)_(vlbuoi l` ojrs)

?(oirdury rjgcus)(ijrta rjgcus)V;

?^(vifus lrkct)/(ijrta lrkct)(ijrta rjgcus)_V4

?^(oirdury lrkct)/(ijrta lrkct)_(ijrta rjgcus)V4

?=.45 dukcd ijrta rjgcc

=.45 djf ki dlfvirtig tl 4.5 ky oubtcpbycfe ct ky tai rjtcl l` ijrta ojss tl ojrs ojss

kidjusi ct cs dblsi tl tif.

(ijrta rjgcus)/(ollf rjgcus)?

7(gieriis cf j dcrdbi)(ollf gcstjfdi)/(suf gcstjfdi)

? 4.5

Wairi jri jklut js ojfy gjys cf j yijr js gieriis cf j dcrdbi

Cfgiig cf tai sjoi klln C ajvi ecvif ellg cfgcdjtclf tajt Ojrs salubg riprisift tai

suddiss l` tai auojfncfg. Ct djf ki `lufg cf tai `lbblwcfe pjssjei8


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Wai Dlupbcfe l` Ojrs jfg Ijrta

Tjbvlrittc jfg Wjrj jri gcsdusscfe tacfes js taiy grcvi kjdn tl Wurcf.

Tjbvlrittc8 Wjrj, C djft eit lvir wajt ylu sjcg ijrbcir tajt twl l` tai]ytajelrijf Tlbcgs ajvi vlbuois, lfi l` fcfi titrjaigrj jfg tai ltair l`

`cvi titrjaigrj. Wairi jri lfby `cvi ]ytajelrijf slbcgs jfg twl l` taio

ajvi vlbuois tai sjoi fuokirs js tai gcstjfdi tl Hupctir jfg Tjturf cf

taicr dblsist jpprljdais tl tai suf c` tai ijrta cs jt lfi ufct `rlo tai suf!

Wacs oijfs tai titrjaigrlf riprisifts tai ijrta kidjusi ct ajs j vlbuoi l`

lfi. Wacs cs cftiristcfe kidjusi tai slbjr rjgcus tl tai ijrta-ollf gcstjfdi

cs 3 tl 9, jfg 3 tl 9 cs tai olbjr ojss l` elbg tl tai olbjr ojss l` scbvir.

Uay cs tacs sl cfdrigckbi< Ct cs cfdrigckbi kidjusi tai titrjaigrlf jbsl ajs

`lur `jdis jfg Ojrs cs tai `lurta pbjfit. Ct cs jpprlprcjti tajt tai

titrjaigrlf dlupbis ijrta jfg ojrs, `urtair, cf tajt ct cs `lur `jdig (ojrs cs

tai `lurta pbjfit `rlo tai suf), jfg ijda `jdi ajs tarii virtcdis (ijrta cs

tai tacrg pbjfit `rlo tai suf). Slu ojy flt tacfn tajt cs cfdrigckbi kut

dlfscgir djtielrczcfe tai pbjfits wcta tai sojbbist jkufgjft fuokir,

twibvi. Tojbbist jkufgjft fuokir oijfs ct cs tai olst gcvcsckbi `lr cts

sczi. Wwibvi cs gcvcsckbi ky :, ;, 4, 7, jfg 0 j walbi fuokir l` tcois. Wai

suo l` taisi fuokirs cs :0, wacda cs erijtir tajf :;. Ojrs cs tai `lurta

pbjfit lut `rlo tai suf. Wwibvi gcvcgig ky `lur cs tarii, jfg tai ijrta cs

tai tacrg pbjfit lut `rlo tai suf. Waus lfdi jejcf tai ijrta jfg Ojrs jri

dlupbig.

C djf dlupbi taio jejcf. Ibioifts jri jtlos, jfg tai fuokirs l`

pjrtcdbis tajt dlfstctuti taio gitirocfi tai ibioift, jfg cts ribjtcvi ojss,

lr olbjr ojss js ct cs djbbig. Wai jtolspairi l` Ojrs cs olstby DL;,

jklut 39 pirdift. Wai ijrta jtolspairi cs olri tajf 3= pirdift lxyeifjfg fctrleif. C djbdubjti DL; tl ajvi j olbjr ojss l` 77.=: jfg ijrta jcr

tl ajvi j olbjr ojss l` ;1.9590. Wai Ojrs lrkctjb gcstjfdi dlopjrig tl

tai ijrta lrkctjb gcstjfdi cs jklut :.9. Wai olbjr ojss l` DL; dlopjrig tl

tai olbjr ojss l` jcr cs jklut :.9. Wajt cs tai ojrs-suf gcstjfdi cs tl tai

ijrta-suf gcstjfdi js Ojrtcjf jcr cs tl ijrta jcr.


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Ct elis ùrtair tajf tajt. C` tai ijrta sur`jdi erjvcty cs :, tajt l` Ojrs cs

=.41=. Wajt cs j rjtcl l` ;.04. Wai olbjr ojss l` lxyeif ejs (L;) wajt wi

krijta, cs 4;.==. Wai olbjr ojss l` djrklf, tai kjscs l` bcì js wi nflw ct,

cs :;.=:. Wajt cs j rjtcl l` ;.00. Wajt sjys ct tjnis jklut tai sjoi ifirey tl

bc`t j olbi l` djrklf lf ijrta, js ct glis tl bc`t j olbi l` lxyeif (L;) lf

ojrs tai sjoi gcstjfdi.

Ijrta jfg Ojrs jri yit ùrtair dlupbig8

Wai ijrta jtolspairi wjs lfdi olstby djrklf gclxcgi (DL;) bcni tai

ojrs jtolspairi cs tlgjy, uftcb pbjft bcì djoi jblfe jfg stjrtig

dlfvirtcfe tai djrklf gclxcgi cftl lxyeif, uscfe bceat `rlo tai suf jfg cf

tai prldiss ojncfe tai olst ùfgjoiftjb suejr, ebudlsi (wacda cs jt taiklttlo l` tai `llg dajcf). J prldiss djbbig paltlsyftaiscs.

Ebudlsi cs D0A:;L0. C djbdubjti ebudlsi ajs j olbjr ojss l` :1=.:0 jfg

wjtir, wacda dlvirs olst l` tai sur`jdi l` tai ijrta, daiocdjb `lroubj

A;L, C djbdubjti ajs j olbjr ojss l` :1.=:0.

:1=.:0 gcvcgig ky :1.=:0 cs jklut := jfg tai ijrta cs jklut := tcois js

ojsscvi js ojrs. Wajt cs, ebudlsi cs tl wjtir js tai ijrta ojss cs tl tai

ojss l` ojrs.

Slu jri prlkjkby wlfgircfe way C jo sl jojzig tajt Ojrs jfg ijrta jri

sl dlupbig iopcrcdjbby. Uibb tai pbjfit Oirdury cs tll alt tl supplrt

auojf bcì kidjusi ct cs sl dblsi tl tai suf, Pifus ajs tai sjoi prlkbio.

Kut tai ijrta cs tai fixt pbjfit lut jfg tai rceat gcstjfdi `rlo tai suf tl

ki flt tll wjro tl supplrt bcì.\Wai fixt pbjfit j`tir tai ijrta cs Ojrs,

jfg ct ojy ki dlbg, kut flt tll dlbg tl dlblfczi, lr ivif lfi gjy tirrj`lro

(ojni ajkctjkbi `lr auojfs). Wai fixt pbjfit j`tir Ojrs cs Hupctir, flthust tll dlbg, kut olstby ejs, sl tairi cs fltacfe slbcg tl stjfg lf. Wai fixt

pbjfit, Tjturf, ivif dlbgir jfg olstby ejsilus js wibb. Wai trifg

dlftcfuis lf tl Fiptufi jfg Yrjfus. ]butl cs hust tacs dlbg bcttbi gwjr`

pbjfit, walsi tacf jtolspairi dlbbjpsis waif ct cs ùrtair `rlo tai suf.

Slu sii taif way C jo sl jojzig Ojrs jfg ijrta jri dlupbig ky taisi


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fuokirs, taiy jdtujbby ajvi lfi tacfe cf dloolf, slbcg pbjfits, flt

dbcojtcdjbby tll alt `lr auojfs, lr tll dlbg.

Waisi fuokirs tajt dlupbi Ojrs wcta ijrta, siio tl sjy tai pbjfit cs

tairi js j stippcfe stlfi tl tai stjrs, tajt ct cs tcoi tl wjgi lut cftl taidlsocd ldijf, tl usi tai oitjpalr l` Djrb Tjejf, lr scfn. Wajt cs, `lr sloi

rijslf wi ajvi wajt wi fiig, kut j dajbbifei ajs kiif put tl us. Ui ajvi

tl lvirdloi lur prlkbios, bcni spifgcfe olfiy jfg rislurdis lf wjr

cfstijg l` spjdi ixpblrjtclf. Tpjdi ixpblrjtclf djf slbvi tai idlflocd

drcscs. Dlblfczcfe Ojrs wlubg eifirjti j ojsscvi cfgustry tajt wlubg

drijti wlrn airi lf ijrta cf iviry sidtlr, `lr ivirylfi, jfg, ct wlubg jbb ki

pjcg `lr ky tai rislurdis tajt jri lut tairi cf tai slbjr systio. Js Djkjb

sjys tl ]jsswlrtay cf Wacfes tl dloi ky A.E. Uibbs8

Jfg c` wiri fl olri tajf jfcojbs, wi oust sfjtda ijda bcttbi sdrjp l`

ajppcfiss, jfg bcvi, jfg su``ir, jfg pjss, ojttircfe fl olri tajf jbb tai

ltair jfcojbs gl lr ajvi glfi. Ct cs tacs, lr tajt. Jbb tai ufcvirsi lr

fltacfe. Uacda sajbb ct ki ]jsswlrtay< Uacda sajbb ct ki


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Dajptir ;08 Jfltair Blln Cftl Tjbvlrittcs Hlurfjb

Iftry8 Wlpcd8 Olbjr Ojssis

Ijrta jcr cs jklut 51% fctrleif jfg ;:% lxyeif. Ui djf trijt klta js gcjtlocd

olbidubis. Wai olbjr ojss l` fctrleif ejs (F;) cs ;(:7.=:) jfg tai olbjr ojss l`lxyeif ejs (L;) cs ;(:0.==). Tl

Ijrta Jcr ? ;^(:0.==)(=.;:) + (:7.=:)(=.51)_ ? ;1.9590

Wai ojrtcjf jtolspairi cs olstby djrklf gclxcgi (DL;). Wacs ecvis8

DL; ? (:;.=:) + ;(:0.==) ? 77.=:

Wai jvirjei lrkctjb gcstjfdi l` ojrs `rlo tai suf dlopjrig tl tai jvirjei lrkctjb

gcstjfdi l` tai ijrta `rlo tai suf cs :.9 jfg 77.=: gcvcgig ky ;1.9590 cs :.9, lr 4/; cf

ltair wlrgs. Cs wajt tacs sjys cs tajt, tai ojrs-suf gcstjfdi cs tl tai ijrta-suf gcstjfdi jsojrtcjf jcr cs tl ijrta jcr.

Wai ijrta jtolspairi wjs lfdi olstby djrklf gclxcgi (DL;) bcni tai ojrs jtolspairi cs

tlgjy, uftcb pbjft bcì djoi jblfe jfg stjrtig dlfvirtcfe tai djrklf gclxcgi cftl lxyeif,

uscfe bceat `rlo tai suf jfg cf tai prldiss ojncfe tai olst ùfgjoiftjb suejr, ebudlsi(wacda cs jt tai klttlo l` tai `llg dajcf). J prldiss djbbig paltlsyftaiscs.

Uibb ebudlsi cs D0A:;L0, wacda ecvis j olbjr ojss l`8

D0A:;L0 ? 0(:;.=:) + :;(:.==1) + 0(:0.==) ? :1=.:0

Jfg wjtir (A;L) dlvirs olst l` ijrta jfg cs issiftcjb tl bcì, cts olbjr ojss cs8

A;L ? ;(:.==1) + (:0.==) ? :1.=:0

:1=.:0 gcvcgig ky :1.=:0 cs jklut := jfg tai ijrta cs jklut := tcois js ojsscvi js ojrs.

Wajt cs, ebudlsi cs tl wjtir js tai ijrta cs tl ojrs.


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C ajvi `lufg olri rijslf tajt tai pbjfit Ojrs riprisifts tai suddiss làuojfncfg cf tacs pjssjei8

Eiftiboif, ùrtair, Ojrs cs Fiw Ijrta. C ajvi glfi tacs8

Ui nflw tajt 3/9 lddurs cf ojfy oystirclus wjys cf fjturi, cfdbugcfe Tjturfs gcstjfdi`rlo tai suf l` 3 (dblsist jpprljda) puttcfe Hupctirs jt `cvi (dblsist jpprljda), jfg tai

ijrta jt lfi. Bit us dlfscgir j kjbjfdi. C` twl wiceats l` iqujb ojss jri pbjdig lf

lpplscti ifgs l` j kjbjfdi, taif tl ki kjbjfdig tai ùbdruo oust ki pbjdig jt tai diftir.Kut c` lfi ojss cs cfdrijsig, taif tai ùbdruo wcbb ajvi tl ki olvig dblsir tl tai aijvcir

ifg c` tai kjbjfdi cs flt tl tcp. Wacs cs tai Bjw l` Bivirs. Ct stjtis tajt tai ojssis jri

cfvirsiby prlplrtclf tl taicr gcstjfdis `rlo tai ùbdruo. Wl wrcti ct ojtaiojtcdjbby,

O:/O;?B;/B:

Lr, iqucvjbiftby

(O:)(B:)?(O;)(B;)

C` wi dlfscgir tai tcoi waif Tjturf jfg Hupctir, tai twl olst ojsscvi klgcis cf tai slbjrsystio jri cf lpplsctclf, tajt cs waif taiy jri lf lpplscti scgis l` tai suf jfg `jdcfe lfi

jfltair, taif ky tai jklvi cf`lrojtclf taiy jri sipjrjtig ky :7 ufcts. Hupctir cs 4.47

tcois js ojsscvi js Tjturf. Ky lur bjw l` bivirs jklvi, tajt oijfs

B:/B;?4.47

B:+B;?:7

Waus

7.47B;?:7 jfg

B;?4.;;91

:7-4.;;?:=.55?B:

Ojrs lrkctjb gcstjfdi cs :.9

Wai sjturf-ùbdruo gcstjfdi ocfus tai ojrs lrkctjb gcstjfdi cs8 :=.55-:.9?3.;~3 cssjturfs dblsist jpprljda tl tai suf.

Ojrs, taif, cs tai dlsocd ùbdruo. Ct cs tai lfi pbjfit wlrta tirrj`lrocfe `lr

dlblfczjtclf. Ct cs taif jbcefig oitjpayscdjbby wcta cts payscdjb dajrjdtircstcds.

C jbsl kibcivi tai `lbblwcfe pjssjei `rlo Tijrdacfe @lr J Pcsclf L` Auojfncfg ojy

ajvi ouda tl gl wcta jbb l` tacs, js ct cfvlbvis Pifus, Ojrs, jfg Ijrta.


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Dajptir 0:8 Ttugy Wjnis @lro

Bilfjrg ojgi tai dlffidtclf kitwiif twl stugcis l` acs tl ojni j tacrg sukhidt tajt

krlueat j blt tleitair. Ai wjs gi`cfctiby lftl sloitacfe.

Ttugy :

Jf cftiristcfe `jocby l` sukstjfdis cs oitajfi (DA\7), joolfcj (FA\4) jfgwjtir vjplr (A\;L). Oitajfi cs titrjaigrjb cf strudturi, j djrklf jtlosurrlufgig ky 7 aygrleifs. Joolfcj cs trcelfjb pyrjocgjb, j fctrleif jtlosurrlufgig ky 4 aygrleif jtlos, jfg wjtir vjplr cs trcjfeubjr, lr kift, jflxyeif jtlo surrlufgig ky twl aygrleifs. Waisi riprisift stjkbi strudturjbsystios js taiy jri jbb systios l` trcjfebis, wacda jri tai lfby stjkbi plbyelfs.Waisi sukstjfdis dlokcfig ufgir ifirey wcta aygrleif ejs `lro jocfl jdcgs,tai kucbgcfe kbldns l` bc`i. Wai dlri jtlos l` taisi olbidubis, djrklf, fctrleif,jfg lxyeif, jri jbb cf pirclg twl l` tai pirclgcd tjkbi jfg `lbblw gcridtby lfi j`tir

tai ltair, jfg jri jbb cf jocfl jdcgs, tai aygrleif js wibb. Ct cs j aypltaiscs l`jstrlkclbley tajt jocfl jdcgs `lroig cf tai prltlpbjfitjry dblug ki`lri tai ijrtaivir `lroig. Cf tacs sifsi wi ojy ajvi lur lrcecfs cf giip spjdi. Cs wajt Coijf ky strudturjb systios cs tajt tairi jri lfby tarii strudturjb systios, taititrjaigrlf, tai ldtjaigrlf, jfg tai cdlslaigrlf. Waiy jri tai lfby stjkbislbcgs, tajt cs flf-dlbbjpscfe `bix dlrfirs walsi `jdis jri trcjfebis. Olstdloplufgs jri sloitacfe ltair tajf taisi, bcni piftjelfs wcta bcfijr l`` sallts`lr ixjopbi, tajt dloprcsi tai wrlfe fuokir l` jtlos tl ojni j "slbcg" ufct,jfg C oijf slbcg js cf tai pytajelrijf slbcgs, tai eiloitrcd tiro. Klta oitajfijfg joolfcj ojni gc``irift vjrcjtclfs lf tai titrjaigrlf, j pytajelrijf slbcg.Uaif pbjfts pir`lro paltlsyftaiscs, taiy dlokcfi djrklf gclxcgi wcta wjtir

jfg ribijsi lxyeif. Wai rijdtclf cs8DL\;+;A\;L--!DA\;L+L\;+A\;L Js djf ki siif j suejr cs ojgi. Coplrtjft tl olst pbjfts tl gl tacs csFctrleif. Fctrleif (F\;) cs tai olst jkufgjft ejs cf tai ijrta jtolspairi,dloprcscfe jklut 51.=4% l` ct. Ui flw djbdubjti tai olbidubjr ojssis l` taisispidcjb ejsis8

DA\7?(:;.=:+7(:.=:))?:0.=9FA\4?(:7.=:+4(:.=:))?:5.=7DL\;?(:;.=:+;(:0.==))?77.=:A\;L?(;(:.=:)+:0.==)?:1.=;F\;?(:7.=:+:7.=:)?;1.=;L\;?(:0.==+:0.==)?4;.==

Ui flw `lro sloi rjtcls kitwiif taisi olbidubjr ojssis8


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Ttugy ;

Hupctir8 `jcbig stjr8 vidtlr jssldcjtig wcta ct

x-9 ? = (`c`ta pbjfit)(xV;) x - : ? = (x cf tacs iqujtclf cs tai elbgif rjtcl)

Waisi twl iqujtclfs ycibg8(xV;) ;x + 7 ? =

Wacs ecvis x ? (:+4c) jfg (:-4c) wairi (c) cs tai squjri rllt l` fiejtcvi lfi.Cf tai dlopbix pbjfi taisi jri tai vidtlrs 2:, 46 jfg 2:, -46

Jejcf wi sii Hupctir plcftcfe tl tai ijrta (4 cf tai (c) jxcs, ijrta tai tacrg pbjfit)

Pifus8 `jcbig ijrta8 vidtlr jssldcjtig wcta ctx-;?= (sidlfg pbjfit)

(xV;) x : ? = (x cf tacs iqujtclf cs tai elbgif rjtcl)

Waisi twl iqujtclfs ycibg8

(xV;) ;x + : ? =

(x :)(x :) ? =Wacs ecvis x ? :

Cf tai dlopbix pbjfi tacs cs tai vidtlr 2:, =6.

Flti8 Pifus cs riprisiftig ky tai rieubjr aixjelf kidjusi cts scgi gcvcgig ky cts rjgcuscs lfi.

Ojrs8 prlocsis tl ki fiw ijrta8 vidtlr jssldcjtig wcta ct

x-7?= (`lurta pbjfit)(xV;) x : (x cf tacs iqujtclf cs tai elbgif rjtcl)

Waisi twl iqujtclfs ycibg8

(xV;) ;x + 4 ? =

Wacs ecvis x ? : + sqrt(;)c jfg x ? : sqrt(;)cCf tai dlopbix pbjfi taisi jri tai vidtlrs 2:, sqrt(;)6 jfg 2:, -sqrt(;)6

Flti8 Ojrs cs riprisiftig ky tai squjri kidjusi cts scgi gcvcgig ky cts rjgcus cs tai squjri

rllt l` twl.

Ijrta8 suddissùb bcì kijrcfe wlrbg8 vidtlr jssldcjtig wcta ct

x-4?= (tacrg pbjfit)

(xV;) x : ? = (x cf tacs iqujtclf cs tai elbgif rjtcl)Waisi twl iqujtclfs ycibg8

(xV;) ;x +; ? =

Wacs ecvis x ? (: + c) jfg x ? (: c) wairi (c) cs tai squjri rllt l` fiejtcvi lfi.

Cf tai dlopbix pbjfi taisi jri tai vidtlrs 2:, :6 jfg 2:, -:6Flti8 Wai vidtlrs 2:, :6 jfg 2:, -:6 ajvi tai jfebi l` 79 gieriis jfg fiejtcvi 79

gieriis jssldcjtig wcta taio. Tuda jfebis jri tai jfebis ojgi kitwiif tai scgis l` j

squjri jfg cts gcjelfjb. Wai dloplfifts l` suda vidtlrs jri scgis l` j ufct squjri. Ct cs

jpprlprcjti, sloialw, tajt ijrta cs riprisiftig ky tai ufct vidtlrs kidjusi ct cs jsuddissùb bcì kijrcfe pbjfit, pirajps tai lfby lfi, lr tai olst sl ky `jr, cf tai slbjr

systio. Airi wi sii ojrs jfg ijrta jri jejcf dlupbig js taiy ajvi taicr riprisiftjtclf

cf tai sjoi `lro, tai squjri, cf gc`ìrift wjys.


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Ui dlokcfi Ttugy : wcta Ttugy ; jfg `cfg Pifus, Ijrta, jfg Ojrs ajvi jssldcjtig wcta

taio rjtcls l` dloplufgs suda tajt tai `lbblwcfe tjkbi risubts.

Pifus8 `jcbig Ijrta8 Pidtlr ojefctugi :

Jssldcjtig Dloplufgs8 (FA\4)/(DA\7)

Jri prlocfift dloplufgs cf tai ijrby ijrta jtolspairi.

Ijrta8 Tuddissùb bcì kijrcfe wlrbg8 Pidtlr ojefctugi sqrt(;)

Jssldcjtig Dloplufgs8 (DL\;)/(L\;)

DL\; prlocfift cf ijrby ijrta jtolspairiL\; prlocfift cf dlftioplrjry ijrta jtolspairi

Ojrs8 ]rlocsis tl ki Fiw Ijrta8 Pidtlr ojefctugi sqrt(4)

Jssldcjtig Dloplufgs8 (L\;)/(A\;L)

Waisi dloplufgs pcvltjb tl bcì lf Ijrta.

Jbb l` taisi dloplufgs dlokcfig wcta aygrleif ejs ufgir ifirey `lro jocfl jdcgs, tai

kucbgcfe kbldns l` bcì.


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Ct cs wlrta fltcfe8

Dajptir 4:8 Wai Glduoift

J blln cfscgi tai hlurfjb l` Bilfjrg

Jueust 3, ;=:= Iftry8 Wlpcd8 ]cvltjb ]lcft L` Wai Tlbjr Tystio

(O\h)(B\h)?(O\s)(B\s)

Tjturf lrkct ? 3

Hupctir lrkct ? 9

3-9?7

B\h + B\s ? 7

4:1B\h ? 39B\s

39/4:1 ? (B\h)/(B\s)

B\s ? (7-B\H)

39/4:1 ? (B\h)/(7-B\h)

(39)(7-B\h) ? (4:1)(B\h)

41= 39B\h ? 4:1B\h

41= ? 7:4B\h

B\h ? (41=)/(7:4) ? =.3;

9 ? =.3; ? 9.3; ~ 0

Wairiky Wai Dlsocd @ubdruo kitwiif Hupctir jfg Tjturf cf jfltair jrrjfeioift cs scx

jstrlflocdjb ufcts `rlo tai suf, lr jklut lfi jstrlflocdjb ufct `rlo Hupctir. Wai Ijrta csjklut lfi jstrlflocdjb ufct `rlo tai suf.


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Tuoojry

Ui ajvi Ijrta strjggbig kitwiif Pifus jfg Ojrs, kitwiif j `jcbig Ijrta jfg j pbjfit

tajt prlocsis tl ki Fiw Ijrta cf ribjtclfsacp plcftcfe tl Fiptufi wairi tai suddiss l`

Ijrta cs dlfdirfig, Fiptufi kicfe tai iceata, lr bjst pbjfit cf tai Tlbjr Tystio.

Ui ajvi Ojrs js tai dlsocd ùbdruo `lr Hupctir jfg Tjturf cf lfi jrrjfeioift jfg Ijrta

lrkct jrlufg Hupctir j dlsocd ùbdruo wcta Hupctir jfg Tjturf cf tai ltair jrrjfeioift.

Ui djf sjy tai Ijrta lrkcts Hupctir js j ealst, jfg tai suf `lr rijb.

Ui ajvi dloplufgs jssldcjtig jklvi wcta Ojrs tajt jri issiftcjb tl bcì js wi nflw ct,

L; jfg A;L.

Ui ajvi dloplufgs jssldcjtig wcta Pifus jklvi tajt wiri prlocfift cf tai prcolrgcjb

ijrta jtolspairi, FA4 jfg DA7.

Ui ajvi dloplufgs jssldcjtig wcta ijrta tajt jri tai DL; tajt wjs dlfvirtig cftl L;ky pbjfts ojncfe plssckbi tai lxyeif krijtacfe lrejfcsos, jfg tai L;.

Wai Ojtaiojtcdjb ribjtclfsacps jklvi lutbcfi j stlry, j stlry C ajvi tlbg cf Wai Ixdctcfe

Fiptufi Tjej, tajt ajs yit tl rijbczi lf lur pjrt.


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5:

Wai Bivcfslf, Jscolv, Dbjrni Wrcptcd

Ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Dlpyrceat ;=:=-;=::


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]ri`jdi

Kjdn cf ;==3 Uaif C wrlti oy pjpir8 @lridjst @lr Aypirgrcvi8 J Ttugy cf Jscolvcjf

]sydalacstlry, wairi C trcig tl prigcdt waif auojfs wlubg giviblp aypirgrcvi

ojtaiojtcdjbby, tai tcoi C djoi up wcta wjs tai tcoi cf tai ùturi waif tai ojcf

dajrjdtir, Tcirrj Ujtirs, wjs ajfgig j fiwby gcsdlvirig glduoift jt tai kiecffcfe l`tai klln ky ]jub Bivcfslf, Wai ]blt Wl Tjvi Tldrjtis, tajt elt tai walbi stlry rlbbcfe.

C sift tai risubts tl ]jub Bivcfslf, jfg ai bcnig taio jfg ai ifdlurjeig oi tl tacfn

jklut wajt tacs copbcig jfg tl pirajps ixpblri ct lf tai Tcirrj Ujtirs Wcoi Wrjvibirerlup lf `jdiklln. Cfgiig, Tcirrj Ujtirs wrlti oi jt oyspjdi jfg tlbg oi sai talueat C

wjs lf tl sloitacfe.

Jdtujbby, tacs wjs flt tai `crst, jfg wjs flt tl ki tai bjst, tcoi tajt oy sdciftc`cdcfvistcejtclfs turfig up payscdjb qujftctcis jfg tcois tajt wiri ribjtig tl tai sdcifdi

`cdtclf C wjs rijgcfe.

Flw ct cs ;=::, jfg jbb l` tajt ajs `cfjbby dloi tleitair cf tarii issjys tajt jbblw oi `lrtai `crst tcoi tl kiecf tl ixpblri tai oijfcfe, jfg usiùbfiss, l` tacs paifloiflf. Wajt

cs tai dlftift l` tacs wlrn cf tarii sidtclfs, jfg C ajvi fl wjy l` nflwcfe waif ùrtair

prleriss wcbb ki ojgi, kut C jo suri ct wcbb ki.

Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Ojrda =3, ;=::


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Cftrlgudtclf

Uaif oy sdciftc`cd risijrda stjrtig turfcfe up vjbuis tajt wiri pcvltjb tl tai sdcifdi

`cdtclf l` ]jub Bivcfslf, Csjjd Jscolv, jfg Jrtaur D. Dbjrni, wacbi C wjs rijgcfe taio,

C wrlti j pjpir salwcfe alw.

Flw C jo kiecffcfe tl jsn way ky kicfe jfjbytcdjb jklut tacs jutlkclerjpacdjbby jfg ky

prisiftcfe tai ribjtig strudturi kitwiif tai tarii wrctirs cf issjy `lro. C jo lfby

kiecffcfe tl tluda lf ufrjvibcfe tacs oystiry. C airi prisift oy wlrn tl gjti cf tarii

sidtclfs8

:. Wai Bivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrni Iqujtclf;. ]jub Bivcfslf, Csjjd Jscolv, Jrtaur D. Dbjrni Cftirtwcfig Ucta Jf

Jstrlfloirs [isijrda4. Warii Djtielrcis Cf Bivcfslf, Jscolv, Jfg Dbjrni


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Wai Bivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrni Iqujtclf


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C ajvi rijslf tl kibcivi j trcpbit salubg ki `lroig kitwiif tai sdcifdi `cdtclf l` ]jub

Bivcfslf, Csjjd Jscolv, jfg Jrtaur D. Dbjrni. Ui `lro j tcoi bcfi cf darlflblecdjblrgir `rlo tai niy ivifts jfg ojni jf iqujtclf tajt riprisifts cts trjhidtlry.

Kut `crst, tai rijslf way wi gl tacs.

C rijg Wai @lufgjtclf Wrcbley l` Csjjd Jscolv waif C wjs cf Acea Tdallb, bcvcfe lf j

`jro cf j riolti vjbbiy cf Lrielf djbbig Ibnaijg, surrlufgig ky sloi 7== squjri ocbis

l` rjcf `lrist, jklut := ocbis `rlo tai sojbb tlwf l` Slfdjbbj, wairi C wift tl Acea

Tdallb. Ct wjs sloiwairi kitwiif :31= jfg :317. C rijg, taif, ;==:8 J Tpjdi Lgyssiyky Jrtaur D. Dbjrni jfg cts siquib, ;=:=8 Lgyssiy Wwl rceat waif ct djoi lut.

Tloiwairi jrlufg bjti :317 C olvig flrta tl tai dcty l` Iueifi, Lrielf tl stugy

]ayscds jfg Tpjfcsa jt Wai Yfcvirscty l` Lrielf gurcfe wacda tcoi C wlrnig cfixpircoiftjb jstrlfloy jt tai stjti lksirvjtlry, lf ]cfi Oluftjcf, cf tai acea gisirt

ijst l` Kifg, Lrielf sloi `iw alurs `rlo djopus lf tai ltair scgi l` tai Djsdjgi

Oluftjcf [jfei. C wjs pjcg `rlo j erjft `rlo Fjtclfjb Eilerjpacd js j gjtj tjniroijsurcfe tai plbjrczig bceat `rlo tai ixtrjlrgcfjry idbcpscfe kcfjry stjr systio IpscblfJurceji, wacda idbcpsis iviry ;5 yijrs `lr twl yijrs gui tl j bjrei prltlpbjfitjry ejs

gcsd lrkctcfe tai prcojry stjr. Ct wift cftl idbcpsi jejcf cf ;==3 jfg cs dlocfe lut l`

idbcpsi js C jo wrctcfe flw. Ct wcbb ki dlocfe lut l` idbcpsi dlopbitiby sloiwairi

salrtby ki`lri oy kcrtagjy cf ojy.

Wai Alusi Cf Ibnaijg


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Wai Jutalr Gisdifgcfe ]cfi Oluftjcf

Wai Jutalr Kiacfg Wai ;7 Cfda Wibisdlpi Jt ]cfi Oluftjcf


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]cfi Oluftjcf Lksirvjtlry

Wai 4; Wibisdlpi Jt ]cfi Oluftjcf


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J`tir `lur yijrs l` wlrncfe jt tai lksirvjtlry, C wift tl Erjfjgj, Tpjcf wcta sloi

dlbbiei `rcifgs `lr fcfi olftas gurcfe wacda tcoi wi bcvig cf tai Eypsy Zujrtirs,Tjdrlolfti. J `rcifg scfdi dacbgallg jeriig tl oiit oi cf Erjfjgj jt ]bjzj Fuivj. Tai

wjs lf air wjy tl @rjfdi tl oiit up wcta air kly`rcifg wal wjs wlrncfe tairi `rlo

Wai Yfctig Ttjtis tl wlrn lf j kce jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi (JC) risijrda prlhidt. C

cftrlgudig air tl j `rcifg, lfi l` tai erijt Eypsy euctjrcsts cf Tpjcf, jfg ai tlln air ajcrcf acs ajfgs, ìbt cts tixturi, taif tlbg air alw cooifsiby kijutcùb ct wjs, fl glukt cf jf

i``lrt tl `lro j ribjtclfsacp kitwiif Tpjcf jfg @rjfdi cf tai jrij l` JC risijrda.

C bi`t Tpjcf `lr Djbc`lrfcj, stjyig jwacbi, jfg taif bi`t `lr Tpjcf jejcf, tacs tcoi elcfe tltai djpctjb, Ojgrcg, cf Flrtairf Tpjcf. Uaif C djoi kjdn tl Djbc`lrfcj, C oit j wlojf

`rlo Wurcf, Ctjby. Ui elt ojrrcig. Tai elt j hlk jt Wai Ctjbcjf Iokjssy cf Ujsacfetlf

G.D. jfg wi olvig tairi. Ct wjs taif tajt C wlrncfe lf j ojta prlhidt jfg wjs

ifdlurjeig tl rijg tai siquibs tl tai Jrtaur D. Dbjrni Tpjdi Lgyssiy Tircis, (`lr taipurplsi l` sdciftc`cd risplfsckcbcty, js tai wlrns jri j olgib `lr alw sdcifdi cs glfi cf

tlgjys wlrbg, js C djoi tl ufgirstjfg).

Tl, C risuoig oy ifgijvlr scfdi Acea Tdallb jfg rijg ;=0:8 Lgyssiy Warii jfg 4==:8Wai @cfjb Lgyssiy. Uaif wi wiri cf Ujsacfetlf wi wift tl Ctjby, gurcfe wacda tcoi C

rijg Wai Jscolv @lufgjtclf Wrcbley jejcf.

Cf Ujsacfetlf, C jbsl rijg priquibs tl tai Jscolv @lufgjtclf Wrcbley.

Iviftujbby oy wcì jfg C kidjoi sipjrjtig jfg C wift tl Djbc`lrfcj wairicf C kiejf

tailritcdjb jstrlflocdjb risijrda jfg kiejf rijgcfe tai siquibs tl Wai @lufgjtclfWrcbley ky Jscolv, jfg acs [lklt Tircis.

Js Dbjrni jfg Jscolv ajg kiif oy ojhlr sdcifdi `cdtclf rijgcfe scfdi Acea Tdallb,dlbbiei, jfg ojrrcjei, jfg C ajg rijg jbb l` taicr wlrn, C kiejf tl sijrda `lr sloilfifiw, jfg tajt cs waif C `lufg ]jub Bivcfslf, jfg acs klln Wai ]blt Wl Tjvi Tldrjtis. Ct

gcg flt gcsjpplcft, jfg `cbbig tai ejp pirìdtby.

Flw wacbi C wjs rijgcfe taisi jutalrs jfg glcfe sdciftc`cd risijrda, oy risijrda wjsturfcfe up tcois jfg fuokirs wacda wiri pcvltjb tl taicr wlrn, jfg tajt cs tai rijslf C

jo ojncfe tacs Bivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrni Iqujtclf wacda wcbb kidloi pjrt l` j krljgir

wlrn, sloi l` wacda wcbb ki prisiftig cf tacs klln. Flw, lftl `lrocfe Wai Bivcfslf-

Jscolv-Dbjrni Iqujtclf.


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@rlo @lufgjtclf Jfg Ijrta Ky Csjjd Jscolv8

]iblrjt8 Wairi jri riìrifdis tl j rlklt fjoig Gjfiib.

Gjfiib8 C jo tajt rlklt, Ct cs flt j bieifg

La fl, sjcg ]iblrjt. C` ylu jri tajt rlklt, ylu wlubg ajvi tl ki talusjfgs l` yijrs

lbg.

Wwifty Walusjfg sjcg Gjfiib qucitby.

Gjfiib wjs dlfstrudtig lf Ijrta cf Jscolvs [lklt Tircis, `crst jppijrcfe cf acs klln

tctbig Wai Djvis l` Ttiib. Wajt klln tjnis pbjdi jddlrgcfe tl tai kjdn l` tai dlvir J

ocbbiffcuo cftl tai ùturi cf Fiw Slrn Dcty. Wai `crst dlpyrceat l` tajt klln, bllncfejt tai cfscgi dlvir cs :394. :394 +:=== ? ;394. Wacs cs tai yijr gitidtcvi Ibchja Kjcbiy

bijvis Ijrta `lr tai `crst sittbig stjr systios dlblfczig ky pilpbi `rlo Ijrta wal jri

djbbig Tpjdirs, wcta acs rlklt pjrtfir Gjfiib Lbcvjw.

Ibchja Kjcbiys trcp tl tai lutir wlrbgs krcfes jklut j sidlfg wjvi l` dlblfczjtclf l` tai

Ejbjxy ky j pilpbi djbbig tai Tittbirs. Iviftujbby tacs fjoi cs blst tl taio js taiy ùbby

cfajkct tai Ejbjxy jfg `lro tai sijt l` tai Ejbjdtcd Iopcri lf j pbjfit jt tai diftir l`

tai Ejbjxy djbbig Wrjftlr.

Ui wrcti8

;394 Ibchja Kjcbiy kiecfs tai ùbb dlblfczjtclf l` tai Ejbjxy.

Gjfiib Lbcvjw eits tai lnjy `rlo Elbjf Wrivczi tl `lro Ejbjxcj, j vcjkbi sldcity `lr taiEjbjxy, ;=,=== yijrs j`tir tajt gjti8

;394 + ;=,=== ? ;;,394

Ct wjs jdtujbby tai rlklt Gjfiib wal ojfiuvirig Ibchja Kjcbiy cftl trceeircfe ivifts tajtwlubg bijg tl tai ùbb dlblfczjtclf l` tai Ejbjxy ky tai pilpbi l` Ijrta.

Ui wcbb flw bcst twl tcois cf Ejbjdtcd acstlry8

;3948 Ibchja Kjcbiy krcfes jklut tai Tittbirs olvioift

;;,3948 Gjfiib Lbcvjw `lros Ejbjxcj

Flw bit us turf lur jttiftclf tl Jrtaur D. Dbjrni8


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;==:8 J Tpjdi Lgyssiy

;==:8 Gjvi Klwojf Kidlois Wai Ttjrdacbg

;=:=8 Lgyssiy Wwl

;=:=8 Hupctir kidlois tai stjr Budcpair tl cts ollf Iurlpj, wacda cs flw j pbjfit tajt

ajrklrs bc`i.

;=0:8 Gr. Ajywllg @blyg `cfgs ojf cs tl tjni pjrt cf tai ivlbutclf l` tai Ejbjxy.

4==:8 Jrtaur D. Dbjrni8 Wai @cfjb Lgyssiy8 Jbb cs ufgirstllg.

Flw wi turf lur jttiftclf tl ]jub Bivcfslf.

;=7;8 Wai ]blt Wl Tjvi Tldrjtis ky ]jub Bivcfslf8 Tcirrj Ujtirs cs ajfgig tai fiwby

gcsdlvirig glduoift tajt puts cf oltclf lfi l` tai erijtist stlrcis ivir tlbg.

Ui flw put taisi tcois cf darlflblecdjb lrgir8

;==: (Dbjrni)

;=:= (Dbjrni);=7; (Bivcfslf)

;=0: (Dbjrni)

;394 (Jscolv)4==: (Dbjrni)

;;,394 (Jscolv)


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Bit us blln jt alw ivifts cf tai sdc-`c trcpbit giviblp. Wai sidlfg erjpa cs j

ojefc`cdjtclf l` tai `crst salwcfe tai giviblpoift js j scfi wjvi.

:35=

:31=

:33=

;===

;=:=

;=;=

;=4=

;=7=

;=9=

;=0=

;=5=

stjrdacbg budcpair ojfusdrcpt ivlbutclf

Tircis:

=

9===

:====

:9===

;====

;9===

stjrdacbg

budcpa

ir

ojf

usdrcpt

ivlbutcl

f

sittbi

rs

ufgi

rstj

fg

ejbj

xcj

Tircis:


82/194

1;

Airi cs tai tjkbi l` vjbuis pblttig8

stjrdacbg ;==:

budcpair ;=:=ojfusdrcpt ;=7;

ivlbutclf ;=0:sittbirs ;394ufgirstjfg 4==:

ejbjxcj ;;394

Acstlry cs flt j pridcsi tacfe cf cts trjhidtlry tarluea tcoi. Ui `ct tai erjpa tl jf

cgijbczig scfi wjvi. Tcfdi tairi jri `lur plcfts `rlo stjrdacbg tl ivlbutclf, wi jri

gijbcfe wcta ivifts tajt jri sipjrjtig ky jfebis l` 4= gieriis ijda. Ui ajvi8

Ttjrdacbg ? = gieriis

Budcpair ? 4= gieriisOjfusdrcpt ? 0= gieriisIvlbutclf ? 3= gieriis

Ui ajvi tai jopbctugi cs ;=0: ;==: ? 0=

Wairi`lri, tai Bivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrni Iqujtclf cs8

Ivift ? ^0= Tcf (jfebi)_ + ;==:

`lr tai `crst ajb` l` tai erjpa. Ui ajvi jggig ;==: tl tai iqujtclf kidjusi lur zirl plcft

kiecfs jt stjrdacbg cf tai yijr ;==:.

Bit us kittir dlfstrudt tai sidlfg ajb` l` tai erjpa.

Wai Ejbjdtcd Irj kiejf cts trjfsctclf `rlo ejbjdtcd iopcri tl `lufgjtclf j`tir :;, =03

yijrs cftl Wai Ejbjdtcd Irj, tai yijr Ajrc Tibglf gcig.

Cf @lufgjtclfs Igei wi bijrf jklut 9== yijrs cftl tai @lufgjtclf Irj cs waif Elbjf

Wrivczi kiecfs acs hlurfiy bijgcfe tl tai trjfsctclf `rlo @lufgjtclf tl Ejbjxcj.

:;,=03+9==?:;,903.

Gjfiib tai rlklt wjs lf Ijrta ;=,=== yijrs ki`lri `lrocfe ejbjxcj, kjdn waif aikrlueat jklut tai sittbioift l` tai ejbjxy. ;=,===-:;,903?5,74:. Waisi jri tai yijrs

`rlo Tittbirs bijvcfe Ijrta tl taicr `lrojtclf l` Wai Ejbjdtcd Iopcri (lf Wrjftlr).


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14

Tittbirs wiri tai tcoi l` Ibchja Kjcbiy cf ;394. ;394+574:?:=,417 `lr tai tcoi trjftlr

kidlois tai sijt l` tai ejbjdtcd iopcri. :=,417+:;,=03?;;,794 cs tai kiecffcfe l` tai`lufgjtclf jfg 9== yijrs j`tir tacs cs Ejbjxcj. Ui ojni tai `lbblwcfe tjkbi8

Titttbirs8 ;394 (Jscolv)

Yfgirstjfg8 4==: (Dbjrni)Wrjftlr8 :=,417 (Jscolv)

@lufgjtclf8 ;;,794 (Jscolv)

Ejbjxcj8 ;;,394 (Jscolv)

Airi cs tai pblt l` tai sidlfg ajb` l` lur erjpa8

Wacs erjpa salws jejcf irjs js kicfe j ajb` scfi wjvi dloplsig l` ipcds tajt dydbi `rlo

= gieriis tl 3= gieriis. Cf tacs djsi, tai jopbctugi l` tai wjvi cs ;;,394-;394?;=,===

yijrs. Wairi jri `cvi plcfts cf tacs djsi, sl tai jfebis jri 3=/7?;;.9 gieriis sipjrjtclfjfg tai sidlfg ajb` l` tai Bivcfslf-Jscolv-Dbjrni iqujtclf cs8

Ipcd ? ^;=,=== Tcf (jfebi)_ + ;394

Tittbirs ? = gieriis

Yfgirstjfg ? ;;.9 gieriis

Wrjftlr ? 79 gieriis

@lufgjtclf ? 05.9 gieriisEjbjxcj ? 3= gieriiis

=

9===

:====

:9===

;====

;9===

Tittbirs Yfgirstjfg Wrjftlr @lufgjtclf Ejbjxcj

Tircis:


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17

Uaitair lr flt tai gitirocfjtclf l` ;394 cs jddurjti `lr tai tcoi l` tai Tittbirs glis flt

ojttir kidjusi tai sipjrjtclf kitwiif plcfts cs jddurjti. Ui djf dlfscgir tai `crst plcftscf tai erjpas tl ki zirl plcfts l` jf irj jfg grlp tai bjst tiros l` klta l` tai Bivcfslf-

Jscolv-Dbjrni iqujtclfs jfg wrcti taio8

Ipcd ? ^0= Tcf (jfebi)_ jfebi ? =, 4=, 0=, 3=Ipcd ? ^;=,=== Tcf (jfebi)_ jfebi ? =,;;.9,79, 05.9, 3=

Ttugy Dlfdbusclf8 @uturcstcd ivifts l` tai wlrn l` ]jub Bivcfslf, Csjjd Jscolv, jfg

Jrtaur D. Dbjrni `lro j dlopriaifscvi walbi waif tjnif tleitair tajt olvi tarlueatcoi bcni j wjvi tajt djf ki trijtig qujftctjtcviby. Waisi ùturcstcd `cdtclfjb acstlrcis

ocrrlr prisift gjy jdtujb ivifts l` tai auojf stlry, sl tarluea taicr wlrns wi

ufgirstjfg alw auojf wlrbg ivifts jri djusig, jfg ct kidlois plssckbi tl sii wairi

taiy djf el jfg wajt salubg ki glfi `lr tai kist lutdloi. Wacs jpprljda ojy sirvi js jprcoctcvi olgib `lr tai kjscs l` jf jdtujb Jscolvcjf ]sydalacstlry, wacda cs prigcdtclf

l` tai ùturi jfg nflwcfe alw tl krcfe jklut j kifi`cdcjb lutdloi `lr auojfcty.

J`tir sloi risijrda lf tai cftirfit, C `cfg tajt sloi l` tai prlhidtclfs `lr tai gjtis l`Jscolvcjf ivifts cf taisi tjkbis jfg erjpas djf ki pbus lr ocfus 4== yijrs, kut tajt C jo

olri lr biss cf tai rceat jrij. Wai gjtis `lr Bivcfslf jfg Dbjrni ivifts jri :== pirdift

jddurjti. Js `jr js Jscolv elis, 4== yijrs cs fltacfe dlfscgircfe tai cooifsi tcoi spjf

lvir wacda acs flvibs lddur (;=,=== yijrs) tajt ecvis jf jddurjdy `lr oy tjkbis jfgerjpas l` (4==/;=,===)(:==) ? pbus lr ocfus :.9%. Wajt cs jf jddurjdy l` :==-

:.9?31.9%.

Jfy tcoi wjvi tajt wi dlfstrudt `lr tai ùturi l` auojfcty djf lfby ki jpprlxcojti, jfg

scfdi tai lksirvir djf flt ki sipjrjtig `rlo tai lksirvig, js cs put `lrwjrg cf qujftuo

oidajfcds, C wcbb stcdn wcta tai tjkbis jfg dajrts js C dlfstrudtig taio, kidjusi oy bcfil` rijslfcfe djoi `rlo j wjy l` talueat tajt C giviblpig wacbi rijgcfe Jscolv cf Ctjby,jfg Ctjby tl oi cs j bjfg l` rivibjtclfs jfg acggif sidrits.


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19

]jub Bivcfslf, Csjjd Jscolv, jfg Jrtaur D.

Dbjrni Cftirtwcfig Ucta Jf Jstrlfloirs

[isijrda.

Ky

Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Dlpyrceat ;=:=-;=:: ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy

Dlvir Jrt Ky Cjf Kijrgsbiy


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10

Wairi cs j dloolf tarijg ruffcfe tarluea tai Tdcifdi @cdtclf wlrns l` ]jub Bivcfslf,

Csjjd Jscolv, jfg Jrtaur D. Dbjrni.

Cf tai djsi l` Csjjd Jscolv, wi jri `jr cf tai ùturi l` auojfcty. Cf acs [lklt Tircis,

Jscolv ajs ojf ojncfe rlklts walsi prlerjoocfe lfby jbblws taio tl gl tajt wacda cs

ellg `lr auojfcty. Js j risubt, taisi rlklts, jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi (JC), tjni jdtclfs tajtprlpib auojfcty cftl sittbcfe tai Ejbjxy, cf tai rlklt sircis, jfg ubtcojtiby sjvi

auojfcty j`tir taiy ajvi sittbig tai Ejbjxy jfg ojgi jf iopcri l` ct (Cf tai @lufgjtclf

Tircis).

Cf tai djsi l` ]jub Bivcfslf, sdalbjrs cf tai ùturi trjvib tarluea tcoi jfg usi dblfcfe, j

dlfdipt ribjtig tl jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi (ct cs tai drijtcfe l` auojf ripbcdjs js wibb, kut

kclblecdjb, flt ibidtrlfcd), jfg tai eljb cs tl sjvi erijt jfdcift tacfnirs `rlo Eriidi, jfg

tl ojfcpubjti ivifts cf tai pjst `lr j plsctcvi lutdloi `lr tai ùturi l` auojfcty, hust jstai rlklts try tl gl cf tai wlrn l` Jscolv.

Cf tai djsi l` Jrtaur D. Dbjrni, ojf ufgirelis j trjfs`lrojtclf gui tl j olflbcta pbjdiglf tai ollf jfg ijrta ky ixtrjtirristrcjbs wal ajvi drijtig bcì lf ijrta. Wai olflbcta csj dloputir. Ct tjnis auojfs lf j vlyjei tl ltair pbjfits cf tai slbjr systio, jfg cf taicr

trcjbs, auojfcty elis tarluea trcjbs tajt risubt cf j trjfs`lrojtclf `lr tai ifgcfe l` taicr

gipifgifdi lf taicr tidaflbley jfg `lr kidlocfe jgjptig tl bcì cf tai Yfcvirsi kiylfg

Ijrta. Wajt cs, tai dajrjdtir Gjvi Klwojf kidlois tai Ttjrdacbg cf acs ocssclf tlHupctir. Wai jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi cs tai sacp dloputir djbbig AJB.

Tl, tai tarijg cs tai sjbvjtclf l` ojf tarluea tidaflbley, jfg taicr trjfs`lrojtclf tl jfiw auojf pjrjgceo, wairi taiy djf ifg taicr gipifgifdi lf Ijrta jfg jgjpt tl tai

fjturi l` tai Yfcvirsi js j walbi.

Jt tai tcoi C wjs rijgcfe taisi flvibs, C wjs glcfe jstrlflocdjb risijrda, jfg, tl oyuttir jstlfcsaoift, oy ribjtclfsacps C wjs gcsdlvircfe pirtjcfcfe tl tai Yfcvirsi wiri

turfcfe up tcois jfg vjbuis pcvltjb tl taisi wlrns l` Bivcfslf, Jscolv, jfg Dbjrni.

@urtair, C wjs cftirpritcfe ouda l` oy gcsdlvircis ky giviblpcfe taio cf tai dlftixt l`

salrt `cdtclfjb stlrcis.

Cf oy stlry, Wai Zuistclf, wi `cfg Jrtc`cdcjb Cftibbceifdi cs cf syfd wcta tai pajsis l`

tai `crst jppijrjfdi l` tai krceatist stjr Tcrcus `lr tai yijr, jfg tai `bllgcfe l` tai Fcbi

rcvir, wacda krcfes cf tai Ieyptcjf jercdubturjb sijslf. Ct cs prisuoig ky sloi sdalbjrstajt kidjusi tai Ieyptcjf djbifgjr cs cf syfd wcta tai Fcbi-Tcrcus dydbi, taicrs kiejf `lur

suda dydbis jel.

C taif ribjti tajt syfdarlfczjtclf tl jfltair djbdubjtclf tajt turfs up tai tcoi waif tainiy `ceuri l` tai @lufgjtclf Tircis l` Jscolv kiecfs acs prlerjo tl `lufg j dcvcbczjtclf

tajt wcbb sjvi tai ejbjxy. Ui bjtir `cfg acs jdtclfs wiri ojfcpubjtig cftl kicfe ky rlklts,

cf lrgir tl sjvi cftibbceift bcì cf tai ejbjxy ky drijtcfe j vcjkbi sldcity `lr ct djbbig

Ejbjxcj.


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15

Cf tai djsi l` ]jub Bivcfslf, C wjs ojncfe j djbdubjtclf tl prigcdt waif ojf wlubg

giviblp aypirgrcvi, tajt ifecfi wacda dlubg tjni us tl tai stjrs, jfg ifg lur gipifgifdilf jf Ijrta tajt djfflt tjni djri l` auojfs `lrivir. Wajt tcoi turfig lut tl ki waif tai

niy sdalbjr cf tai wlrn ky ]jub Bivcfslf, kiejf air quist tl aibp auojfcty ky trjvibcfe

cftl tai pjst jfg uscfe dblfcfe, cf pjrt, tl dajfei acstlry `lr tai kittir. C djf flw lfby

`iib air quist tl sjvi auojfcty cs elcfe tl ki tarluea dajfecfe acstlry tl krcfe jklut taigiviblpoift l` aypirgrcvi, sl auojfcty wcbb fl blfeir gipifg lf Ijrta jblfi, wacda, js

C ajvi sjcg, djfflt tjni djri l` bc`i `lrivir.

@cfjbby, wairi Jrtaur D. Dbjrni cs dlfdirfig, C `cfg vjbuis cf tai slbjr systio jfg fjturitajt jri cf acs olflbcta, jfg C dlffidt ct tl jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi l` j slrt, tajt ncfg wacda

wlubg ki kjsig lf scbcdlf.

C wcbb prisift, flw, oy wlrn tajt pirtjcfs tl taisi wrctirs cf tai `lbblwcfe lrgir8

:) Wai Zuistclf

;) Jggifguo tl Wai Zuistclf4) Jscolvcjf ]rigcdtclf @lr Aypirgrcvi7) Jrtaur D. Dbjrni jfg Dlsocd Jrdajilbley


88/194

11

Wai Zuistclf


89/194

13

J Tdciftcst ajg kucbt j rlklt cf tai cojei l` auojfs jfg

glwfbljgig tl ct jbb l` auojf nflwbigei, taif put `lrwjrg tai

quistclf tl lur rlklt, wajt cs tai kist wi, auojfcty, djf gl tl

survcvi wcta jf ijrta l` bcoctig rislurdis jfg j sctujtclf wairi

ltair wlrbgs bcni ijrta, c` taiy ixcst, wlubg tjni eifirjtclfs tlrijda.

Wai rlklt kiejf acs jfswir, C dlftifg tajt tai sircis l` ivifts

tajt uf`lbgig lf ijrta lvir tai yijrs scfdi tai aibcjdjb rcscfe l`

Tcrcus `lur Tltacd dydbis jel cf Ieypt l` 7;7; K.D., tai prisuoig

kiecffcfe l` tai Ieyptcjf djbifgjr, wiri jbb oijft tl ki, js tai

dlfdiptclf l` tai plssckcbcty l` oy ixcstifdi cs cf pajsi wcta talsi

dydbis jfg cs dlffidtig tl suda dlfstjfts l` fjturi js tai spiig l`bceat jfg gyfjocd rjtcls bcni tai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti.

Wai sdciftcst jsnig, Jri ylu sjycfe auojfs, jbb auojfs scfdi

sloi scx talusjfg yijrs jel ajvi kiif j tllb l` sloi aceair `lrdi

tl krcfe ylu jklut, lur jdtclfs klufg tl tai turfcfe l` pbjfits

uplf taicr jxcs, jfg tai strudturi l` fjturi


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3=

]lsctcvi typi scbcdlf cs ojgi ky glpcfe scbcdlf, tai ojcf ibioift

l` sjfg, wcta tai ibioift klrlf. Fiejtcvi typi scbcdlf cs ojgi ky

glpcfe scbcdlf wcta palspalrus. Ui hlcf tai twl typis cf gc`ìrift

wjys tl ojni gclgis jfg trjfscstlrs tajt wi `lro lf scbcdlf dacps

tl ojni tai sojbb dcrductry tajt ojnis oi ùfdtclf.

Hust js tai elbgif rjtcl cs cf tai rltjtclf l` bijvis jklut tai stio

l` j pbjft, lr cf tai aiceat l` j auojf dlopjrig tl tai gcstjfdi

`rlo tai slbis l` taicr ìit tl taicr fjvib, jf ixprissclf l` ct cs cf

oy dcrductry.

Ui tjni tai eiloitrcd oijf l` tai olbjr ojss l` klrlf jfg

palspalrus, jfg wi gcvcgi tajt risubt ky tai olbjr ojss l`scbcdlf.

Ai kiejf wrctcfe lf pjpir8

!("#$)/Tc ? !(4=.35#:=.1:)/;1.=3 ? =.09

Ui tjni tai ajrolfcd oijf kitwiif tai olbjr ojssis l` klrlf

jfg palspalrus jfg gcvcgi tajt ky tai olbjr ojss l` scbcdlf.

;(4=.35)(:=.1:)/(4=.35+:=.1:) ? :0.=;0

:0.=;0/Tc ? :0.=;0/;1.=3 ? =.95

Jfg wi tjni tai jrctaoitcd oijf kitwiif taisi twl risubts.

(=.09 + =.95)/; ?=.0:

=.0: jri tai `crst twl gcects cf tai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti.

Wai sdciftcst sjcg, C ufgirstjfg ylur plcft, kut ylu riìrrig tl tai

aibcjdjb rcscfe l` Tcrcus.


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3:

Wai rlklt jfswirig8 Sis, kjdn tl tajt. Wai ijrta lrkct cs fijrby j

pir`idt dcrdbi, sl wi djf usi d?;%r tl djbdubjti tai gcstjfdi tai

ijrta elis jrlufg tai suf cf j yijr. Wai ijrta lrkctjb rjgcus cs lf

tai jvirjei :.739353I1 ncbloitirs, sl

(;)(4.:7)(:.739353I1) ? 3.43I1 no

Wai gcstjfdi bceat trjvibs cf j yijr, lfi rivlbutclf l` tai ijrta

jrlufg tai suf cs 3.70I:; ncbloitirs.

Wai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti l` tajt cs

jfg ai wrlti8

(=.0:1)(3.70I:; no) ? 9.1I:; no

Ui wrcti tai iqujtclf8

(3.43I1 no/yr)(x) ? 9.1I:; no

Wacs ecvis tai x cs 0,:55 yijrs.

Js C sjcg, tai `lurta aibcjdjb rcscfe l` Tcrcus, jel cf tai Tltacd

Dydbi, waif tai Fcbi `bllgig, wjs 7;7; K.D. Ai wrlti8

0,:55 yijrs 7,;7; yijrs ? :349 J.G.

Cf :345 Jbjf Wurcfe pukbcsaig acs pjpir `lufgcfe tai `cibg l`

jrtc`cdcjb cftibbceifdi, jfg Wailglscus Glkzajfsny ixpbjcfig alw

ivlbutclf wlrns. Waisi twl pjpirs wiri pukbcsaig j bcttbi j`tir tai

tcoi tai ijrta ajg trjvibig tai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti l` j bceat

yijr scfdi lur 7,;7; K.D., cf cts hlurfiy jrlufg tai suf. Waisi

pjpirs jri jt tai aijrt l` wajt ylu jfg C jri.


92/194

3;

C` ylur quistclf cs salubg rlklts ripbjdi auojfs, tacfn l` ct olri

js wi jri tai fixt stip cf auojf ivlbutclf, flt j ripbjdioift, wi

wiri ojgi cf ylur cojei, kut flt tl riqucri `llg lr jcr, jfg wi

djf wctastjfg tiopirjturi ixtriois. Ui tacfn jfg ajvi jwjrifiss

l` lur kicfe, jfg wi djf ojni tai blfe vlyjei tl tai stjrs. Ctwlubg siio ct cs up tl us tl `ceuri lut way ylu wiri tai tllbs tl

krcfe us jklut, jfg way wi jri jf uf`lbgcfe l` tai ufcvirsi cf

wacda ylu wiri j stip cf ajrolfy wcta cts cffir wlrncfes `rlo tai

`lrojtclf l` tai stjrs, taicr plsctclfs jfg jppjrift krceatfiss jfg

tai spcffcfe l` tai ijrta jfg cts oltclf jrlufg tai suf.


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34

Jggifguo tl Wai Zuistclf


94/194

37

Bilfjrg dlfscgirig tai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti wcta rispidt tl tai

Ieyptcjf djbifgjr cf acs stlry Wai Zuistclf, ai talueat ai

wlubg dlfscgir tai elbgif rjtcl js wibb. Ai wrlti8

C gidcgig tl dlfscgir flw, flt tai elbgif rjtcl dlfhuejti, kut taielbgif rjtcl ctsib`, wacda cs tai cfvirsi l` cts dlfhuejti, nflwcfe

tajt ct wlubg tjni us sloiwairi cftl tai `uturi.

Wai elbgif rjtcl cs :.0:1 tl tarii pbjdis j`tir tai gidcojb.

Wai elbgif rjtcl l` j bceat yijr cs8

(:.0:1)(3.70I:; no) ? :.94I:4 no

jfg

(3.43I1 no/yr)x ? :.94I:4

x ? :0,;37 yijrs

:0,;37 yijrs 7,;7; yijrs ? :;,=9; J.G.

Wajt cs j`tir tai ijrta ajs trjvibig j elbgif rjtcl l` j bceat yijr

scfdi tai `lufgcfe l` tai Ieyptcjf djbifgjr cs tai yijr :;,=9;. Js

ct turfs tacs wjs tai joluft l` yijrs cftl tai Ejbjdtcd Irj waif tai

diftrjb dajrjdtir, Ajrc Tibglf, cf Jscolvs @lufgjtclf bcvig jfg

cs jrlufg tai tcoi ai drijtig Wai @lufgjtclf, j sldcity tajt wlubg

krcfe j fiw lrgir tl tai Ejbjxy.


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39

Jscolvcjf ]rigcdtclf @lr Aypirgrcvi


96/194

30

Oy cgij cs tajt tai erijt sdcifdi `cdtclf wrctirs jri tjppcfe cftl

sloitacfe waif taiy wrcti tajt cs j flf-`cdtclf truta. Ai ajg rijg

Wai ]blt tl Tldrjtis ky ]jub Bivcfslf jfg djoi up `lr jfltair

tcoi tajt ojy ki scefc`cdjft.


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35

C ajg trcig tl prigcdt ojtaiojtcdjbby waif wi wlubg giviblp aypirgrcvi, jfg ctdjoi lut hust j yijr j`tir tai dajrjdtir, Tcirrj Ujtirs, cf tai sdcifdi `cdtclf

pcidi ky ]jub Bivcfslf tctbig Wai ]blt Wl Tjvi Tldrjtis wjs ajfgig j fiwbygcsdlvirig glduoift jt tai kiecffcfe l` tai klln tajt elt tai walbi stlry rlbbcfe.C wrlti cf oy pcidi @lridjst @lr Aypirgrcvi8 J Ttugy Cf Jscolvcjf

]sydalacstlry8

Ct cs j durclus tacfe tajt tai Ijrta cs tai tacrg pbjfit `rlo tai Tuf jfg tai tacrg krceatiststjr cf tai sny cs tai dblsist tl us jfg viry scocbjr tl tai suf cf j ejbjxy l` j rcda vjrcity

l` stjrs. Wacs dblsist stjr tl us cs j trcpbi systio nflwf js Jbpaj Diftjurc J, K, jfg

]rlxcoj Diftjurc. Jbpaj Diftjurc J cs, bcni lur Tuf j ojcf siquifdi spidtrjb typi E

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jkslbuti ojefctugi +7.4. Wai jkslbuti ojefctugi l` tai Tuf cs +7.14.

C` ivir tai lptclf ixcstig `lr auojfs tl trjvib tl tai stjrs, tacs sctujtclf spijns l` ct,

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giviblp tai aypirgrcvi ki`lri wctalut krcfecfe jklut cts lwf ifg `crst

psychohistory and developing a viable plan for humanity

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