Report No. 13875-BD

BangladeshRecent Economic Developments andPriority Reform Agenda for Rapid GrowthMarch 16, 1995

Country Operations DivisionCountry Department ISouth Asia Region

Document of the World Bank

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS

The external value of the Bangladesh Taka (Tk) is fixed in relation to a basket of referencecurrencies, with the US Dollar serving as the intervention currency. The official exchange rate onFebruary 3, 1995, was Tk 40.25 per US Dollar.

US$1 = Tk4O.25Tk 1 = US$0.025

Following local convention, expenditures and revenues are sometimes denominated in units of crore(abbreviated Cr), which is equal to Tk 10 million. At the current official exchange rate,Tk 1.0 Cr = US$248,447.

In this report, US$ is sometimes abbreviated as

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

kWh = kilo watt-hourMCF = million cubic feetMMCFD - million cubic feet per dayMT = metric tonMW = megawatts

FISCAL YEAR (FY)

July 1 - June 30

TITLE BANGLADESH: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ANDPRIORITY REFORM AGENDA FOR RAPID GROWTH

COUNTRY : BANGLADESH

REGION SOUTH ASIA

SECTOR COUNTRY ECONOMIC

REPORT TYPE CLASSIFICATION MM/YY LANGUAGE

13875-BD CEM Unrestricted 03/95 English

ABSTRACT : While favorable trends in Bangladesh's macroeconomic stability and ininternal/external resource positions continued in FY94, the implementation ofstructural reform program slowed down significantly. Bangladesh needs fastereconomic growth in order to alleviate its massive poverty. In the medium-term, itshould strive for a higher, sustainable economic growth rate approaching 7 percent.Apart from higher agricultural growth, this would require a sizeable increase inprivate investment, particularly in labor-intensive export activities, and furtherimprovements in the implementation and quality of public expenditure ininfrastructure and human resource development. To this end, seizing the opportunityprovided by the continuing strong macroeconomic stability, the Government shouldremove the element of uncertainty pertaining to the pace and timing of the awaitedreform actions by pushing forward the stalled reform program. And it should furtherstrengthen poverty oriented social sector programs to ensure that economic growthindeed brings visible benefits to the poor. First, to energize the private sector, theGovernment should establish a facilitating business environment and strongly resumeincomplete policy reforms. To remove bottlenecks and achieve the neededexpansion, private investment--and, thereby, also new technology and management--should be attracted to infrastructure/energy by introducing the needed regulatory andinstitutional framework for sectors such as power, telecommunications, and gas. Inthe financial sector, early actions are needed to restructure the banking subsector inorder to improve its financial health and efficiency. Measures are also needed toenhance the efficiency and flexibility of labor markets. In the trade policy area,efforts should continue to lower the dispersion of import tariffs by lowering the highrates, which would also lower the average tariff rate. In industry, the focus shouldbe on speeding up the process of privatization. Second, with respect to the publicsector management, the Government should maintain economic stability throughcontinued sound macroeconomic management, and further strengthen efforts aimedat improving the quality and implementation of public expenditures. Continuingeffort is also needed to further improve the operational efficiency of the power andtelecommunication SOEs, which may remain in the public domain for some time.GOB should also intensify efforts aimed at reforming the public sector agencies thatare responsible for policy implementation, regulatory oversight and promotion ofprivate sector, with view to turning them into pro-active, facilitating entities. Third,in the human resource development area, sustained efforts are needed to furtherimprove the quality and coverage of education, family planning and primary healthcare services.

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB - Asian Development BankADP - Annual Development ProgrammeBB - Bangladesh BankBBS - Bangladesh Bureau of StatisticsBGMEA - Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers & Exporters AssociationBIDS - Bangladesh Institute of Development StudiesBINP - Bangladesh Integrated Nutrition ProjectBOI - Board of InvestmentBPC - Bangladesh Petroleum CorporationBPDB - Bangladesh Power Development BoardBSB - Bangladesh Sericulture BoardBSRS - Bangladesh Shilpa Rin SangsthaBTC - Bangladesh Tariff CommissionCIB - Credit Information BureauCEM - Country Economic MemorandumCP - Contraceptive prevalenceDCCI - Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and IndustryDDS - Duty Drawback SchemeDEDO - Duty Exemption and Drawback OfficeDESA - Dhaka Electricity Supply AuthorityDFI - Development finance institutionDHS - Demographic and Health SurveyEPB - Export Promotion BureauEPI - Expanded Program of ImmunizationEPR - Effective Protection RatesEPZ - Export Processing ZoneESAF - Enhanced Structural Adjustment FacilityFDI - Foreign Direct InvestmentFFE - Food-for-educationFFW - Food for Work SchemeFP - Family PlanningFY - Fiscal yearGDI - Gross fixed investmentGDP - Gross domestic productGOB - Government of BangladeshHEP - Health economics projectICB - Investment Corporation of BangladeshIDA - International Development AssociationIEC - Information, education and communicationIMR/U5MR - Infant and under-5 mortality ratesICOR - Incremental capital-output ratioJSAC - Jute Sector Adjustment CreditMOHFW - Ministry of Health and Family WelfareNBR - National Board of RevenueNCB - Nationalized commercial bankNGO - Non-governmental organizationNIP - New Industrial Policy

NMWB - National Minimum Wages BoardPB - Privatization BoardPE - Public EnterprisePEM - Protein energy malnutritionPRMAC - Public Resource Management Adjustment CreditPSD - Private Sector DevelopmentPSI - Preshipment inspectionQR - Quantitative restrictionsRIP - Revised Industrial PolicyRMG - Readymade garments industrySBW - Special bonded warehouseSCI - Small Cottage IndustrySD - Supplementary dutySOE - State-owned enterpriseTFR - Total fertility rateTYRIP - Three-Year Rolling Investment ProgrammeUNICEF - United Nations Children's FundVAT - Valued added taxVGD - Vulnerable Group Development Scheme

BANGLADESH

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ANDPRIORITY REFORM AGENDA FOR RAPID GROWTH

Table of Contents

Page No.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................ i

A. Introduction .1

B. Background: An Overview of the Recent MacroeconomicStabilization and Structural Reform Efforts .............................. 1

C. Impact of Reforms and Economic Performancein FY94 and Early FY95 ................................. ......... 8

Economic Growth in FY94 .......................................... 9Economic Growth Prospects in FY95 ........ ........................... 9Trends in Investment and Savings ......... ............................ 10Fiscal Developments and Issues ........ .............................. 11Balance of Payments Developments in FY94 and FY95 .14Money, Credit and Prices . 16

D. Poverty Trends and Actions to Alleviate Poverty .17

E. Near and Medium-Term Priority Reform Agenda ForFaster Growth and Poverty Alleviation .21

Establishing a Facilitating Business Environmentand Resuming Policy Reforms: Energizing the Private Sector .21Improving Public Resource Management and Administration .................... 26Attacking Poverty ............................................... 29

F. Medium-Term Prospects and External Aid Disbursements .30

External Financing in FY96 .33

ANNEX: ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF REFORMSUNDER THE PARIS UNDERSTANDING FOR FY95 .35

STATISTICAL APPENDIX .......... ................................ 43

List of Tables

Page No.Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators, FY80-FY94 .............................. 2Table 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth in Key Sectors

under the Annual Development Program ............................. 11Table 3: The Central Government Budget: Financing of the

Deficit and Tax Revenue Sources ................................. 13Table 4: Social Sector and Targeted Spending in the Current Budget .................. 14Table 5: Balance of Payments (FY90-94) ................................... 15Table 6: Aid Disbursements . ........................................... 17Table 7: Medium Term Growth Scenario: Key Macro Indicators ................... 32

This Country Economic Memorandum was prepared by a team led by Tercan Baysan.The other member of the core team was Syed Nizamuddin. The study was prepared under thegeneral supervision of John Wall. Valuable contributions were received from John Wall,Shamsuddin Ahmad, Arun Banerjee, Charles Draper, Hafez Ghanem, Philip Gowers, ZamirHasan, Jagmohan Kang, Owaise Saadat, Shekhar Shah, Vidya Shetty, Sona Varma, Kamil Yilmaz,and the Agriculture Unit of the Bangladesh Resident Mission (RMB). The Memorandum wasprocessed by Mehar Akhter (RMB) and Jennifer C. Feliciano. The excellent cooperation of manyofficials of the Government of Bangladesh in preparing this report is gratefully acknowledged.

Page 1 of 2COUNTRY DATA - BANGLADESH

AREA POPULATION (1991) DENSITY148,393 km2 111.455 million 751 per km2 (1991)

Rate of Growth: 2.17% 959 per km2 of cultivabl land (1991)

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1991) HEALTH (1992)Crude Birth Rate (per '000) 31.6 Population per physician 5,304Crude Death Rate (per '000) 11.2 Population per hospital bed 3,243Infant Mortality (per '000 live births) 90.6

INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1988/89) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (1978)% of national income, highest quintile 46.2 % owned by top 10% of owners 49% of national income, lowest quintile 6.6 % owned by smallest 10% of owners 2

ACCESS TO DRINKING WATER (1992) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1991/92)% of population - urban (piped water) 42 % of population - urban 56.7% of population - rural (tubewell) a/ 80 % of population - rural 4.7

NUTRITION EDUCATION (1991)Calorie intake as % of requirements (1988) 88 Adult literacy rate (%) 35Per capita protein intake (grams/day, 88/89) 64 Literacy rate for all ages (%) 24.9

Primary school enrollment (%) 70

GNP PER CAPITA IN FY94: US$220 b/

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (1993/94) ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices)

US$ Million % FY75-80 FY81-88 FY89-94

GDP at Market Prices 25,887 100.0 4.12 4.58 4.3Gross Domestic Investment 3,684 14.2Gross National Saving 3,263 12.6Current Account Balance -420 1.6 ... ...Exports of Goods, f.o.b. 2,534 9.8 4.7 7.7 11.6Imports of Goods, c.i.f. 4,191 16.2 6.2 3.5 0.3

OUTPUT IN 1993194 BY SECTOR

Value Added c/ Labor Force dl Value AddedNVorker d/US$ Mill % Mill % USS %

Agriculture 7,874 30.5 32.6 65 251 51Industry 4,594 17.7 7.8 16 541 110Services 13,419 51.8 9.8 19 1258 255

25,887 100.0 50.2 100 493 100

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE

Taka Billion % of GDPFY94 FY88 FY94

Current Revenue 123.2 8.9 11.9Current Expenditure 91.3 8.1 8.8Current Surplus 31.9 0.8 3.1External Assistance e/ 62.3 8.2 6.0

a/ Based on 150 meter distance to tubewell.b/ World Bank Atlas methodology; base 91-93.c/ At market prices.d/ Data is for 1989/90 civilian labor force.e/ Disbursement

= not available.= not applicable.

Page 2 of 2

COUNTRY DATA - BANGLADESH

MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES June 87 June 88 June 89 June 90 June 91 June 92 June 93 June 94(Billion Taka outstanding, end of period)

Money and Quasi-money 138.6 164.1 190.8 223.0 250.0 285.2 315.3 364.0Bank Credit to Public Sector 60.5 60.8 59.0 70.3 75.5 92.7 99.5 94.3Bank Credit to Private Sector 89.6 109.0 133.6 160.0 178.2 179.4 193.2 209.7

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi-moneyas % of GDP 25.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30.0 31.5 33.3 35.2

General Price Index(1 970=1 00) 481.2 536.0 578.9 632.7 689.3 724.4 734.0 747.4

Annual Percentage Changes in:General Price Index 10.4 11.4 8.0 9.3 8.9 5.1 1.3 1.8Bank Credit to PublicSector 4.0 0.5 -2.9 19.1 7.4 22.8 7.3 -5.2

Bank Credit to PrivateSector 7.2 21.7 22.6 19.8 11.4 0.7 7.7 8.5

BALANCE OF PAYMENT (US$ Million) MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (1993/94)

1987/88 1993/94 US $ Million %Export of Goods, f.o.b.. 1,231 2,534 Raw jute 57 2Imports of Goods, c.i.f. -2986 4,191 Jute goods 284 11Trade Gap (deficit = -) -1,755 -1,657 Tea 38 2Non-Factor services, net -11 21 Leather 168 7Worker's Remittances 737 1,089 Fish and shrimp 211 8Other Factor payments (net) -82 127 Garments b/ 1,292 51Current Account Balance -1,111 420 Others 484 19Direct Foreign Investment 0 69 Total 2,534 100Net MLT Borrowing 713 585

(Disbursements) 906 849(Amortization) 193 264 EXTERNAL DEBT, December 1993

US$ MillionCapital Grants 824 710 Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 13,048IMF facilities, net -18 -70 Private Debt

Non-Guaranteed Private DebtTotal Outstanding and Disbursed 13,048

Change in Reserves(-=increase) -144 -625Gross Reserves (end of year) 897 2,822 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1992/93 a/

RATE OF EXCHANGE (March 7, 1995) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 12.1Private Debt

US$1.00 = Taka 40.10 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Total 12.1

IBRD/IDA LENDING, December 1993 (US$ Million)IBRD IDA

Outstanding and Disbursed 57.6 4,824Undisbursed 0.0 1,353Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 57.6 6,177

_/ Including IMF.b/ Excluding knitwear exports.. = not available.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

1. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is an "economic update" for Bangladesh. Itpresents a brief assessment of recent progress in the implementation of structural economic reforms inBangladesh and of the economy's performance in FY94 and early FY95. The CEM focusses on theremaining priority near- and medium-term structural reform agenda to achieve sustained increases ininvestment and economic growth, with a view to accelerating poverty reduction. It also looks at additionalactions needed to strengthen the ongoing poverty reduction programs.

Maintained Macroeconomic Stability Continues to Provide Opportunity for Accelerated Reforms

2. Economic performance during FY94 was in many respects a continuation of the trends of thepast several years. The achievement of macroeconomic balance was even further strengthened during theyear; but the opportunity this stronger macroeconomic performance presented for wider structural reformsto accelerate growth and reduce poverty was only weakly pursued.

3. GDP grew at 4.6 percent; investment reached 14.2 percent of GDP; the budget deficit remainedunder 6 percent of GDP with much of this deficit financed through concessional external resources; the rateof inflation was less than 2 percent for the second consecutive year; the external current account deficit fellto 1.6 percent of GDP; the overall balance of payments was positive; and the foreign exchange reservesgrew to eight months of imports. This is an impressive stabilization performance and a tribute to the soundmacroeconomic management of the Government. Other important developments that have contributed tothis performance include the progress toward foodgrain self-sufficiency; the continued growth of non-traditional manufactured exports; the increase of manpower exports and remittances; and continued inflowsof foreign aid.

4. This performance is a continuation of fundamentally favorable trends observed in recent years.Over the past five years exports have been rising faster than imports; government current revenues havebeen rising faster than current expenditures; national saving has doubled as a percent of GDP; inflation hasremained very moderate; and expenditures on development have risen as a percent of GDP and relative tocurrent expenditures. Sustaining the macroeconomic stability is important, however, especially in view ofthe more recent upward pressures on the general price level caused by the rising domestic rice prices andpotential demand-side pressures associated with the growing remittance inflows and increases in thecompensation of Government employees. Moreover, careful public expenditure management will continueto be essential in this election year.

5. This remarkable macroeconomic stability stands in stark contrast to the harsh realities of life inBangladesh. It has a population of about 120 million, with over 800 persons per sq. km., making it themost densely populated non-city state in the world. Population has doubled since the mid-1960s, and willdouble again in 35 years at the present growth rate of about 2 percent. At only US$224, per capita incomeremains very low. An estimated half of the population still live in absolute poverty, and only 35 percentof the adult population is literate. It has limited natural resources and is subject to severe floods andcyclones.

6. Given the low level of income and the tremendous poverty reduction challenge, Bangladesh hasto strive for much higher economic growth. While the 2.5 percent average per capita GDP growth achievedin the last five years compares favorably with many developing countries, it is significantly below thegrowth rate--above 4 percent--that is needed to tackle Bangladesh's extreme poverty problem.

- ii -

7. Achieving this higher pace of growth would mean Bangladesh's very low investment rate (12-14percent of GDP) must increase to a level in the 20 percent of GDP range, as observed in other low incomecountries. Most of this increase needs to come from the private sector, domestic as well as foreign. Publicsector investment should focus on human resources and infrastructure, thus complementing privateinvestment and ensuring that economic growth indeed brings visible benefits to the poor.

8. It is also important that investment takes place in activities with the greatest potential for creatinga dynamic and efficient economy in line with the country's comparative advantage and poverty alleviationneeds. In this respect, export-based and labor-intensive growth is crucial to achieve sustained increases ingrowth and employment opportunities, given Bangladesh's limited domestic market and a large and fastgrowing (3 percent) labor supply, which is its principal source of comparative advantage. The dynamismshown by the garments subsector is a testimony to this. This will also help to further diversify theeconomy's export base.

9. In principle, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has adopted such a strategy of rapid economicgrowth as an effective way of achieving poverty reduction. Building on the structural reform initiatives thatwere started in the 1980s, the GOB has launched a fairly comprehensive structural reform program in theearly 1990s to open up and establish a liberalized, market- and private sector-driven economy, operatingwithin a stable macroeconomic environment. With the financial support of multilateral and bilateral donorsand a social safety net program to protect the poorest segments of the population, the Government hasintroduced policy and institutional reforms in the fiscal, financial, exchange rate, trade and industrialpolicies, and in the area of public resource management and public enterprise sector.

10. However, in most areas, the reformn program is either incomplete or important actions are yetto take place. Indeed the recent slowdown appears to have created a perception of uncertainty regardingthe pace, timing and magnitude of the awaited reform actions in the areas of trade, fiscal policy, financialsector, and privatization. This uncertainty and the slowness of progress in creating a conducive businessenvironment might at least partly explain why private investment response has not been stronger. Thelatter, while has shown an increasing trend in the early 1990s, has remained below 8 percent of GDPobserved in the early 1980s and remains significantly lower than what is needed for a stronger, privatesector-led economic growth performance.

11. Good progress has been made in the trade policy area, but the continuing high dispersion aroundthe statutory (unweighted) tariff average of 30 percent (inclusive of the license fee) remains a shortcomingof the whole tariff rationalization effort so far. Similarly, significant efforts have been made toward theremoval of most policy distortions and promotion of private investment in agriculture. However, continuedefforts are needed in this sector to enhance factor productivity and diversification in farm and off-farmactivities. This is necessary for bolstering agriculture's contribution to economic growth, employment andpoverty alleviation, especially given that well over 80 percent of the civilian labor force lives in the ruralareas.

12. Bangladesh's financial sector, notwithstanding the recent reform measures, is weak and not yetable to provide efficient financial intermediation for an economy that needs to grow faster. Under theburden of sizeable non-perforning loans and inadequate capitalization, the four Nationalized CommercialBanks (NCBs) and most private banks remain financially weak, and the recapitalization of the NCBs iscreating a significant burden on the budget. In the public sector, over 200 non-financial state-ownedenterprises (SOEs), with assets of over $13 billion and close to 300,000 workers, account for only about6 percent of GDP. Their losses averaged over 1 percent of GDP in FY92-93. Their inefficiency is a majorburden on the economy and budget. GOB's current privatization program, which started with theannouncement of 46 SOEs in late 1991 and expanded in 1994 with the jute sector's privatization program,

- jjj -

is very modest, covering only about 6 percent of the total SOE assets (excluding petroleum). And despiteits modest coverage, the implementation of the privatization program has been slow, with only 18 SOEprivatizations-of which 11 have so far been handed over to their new owners-since FY93.

13. Strengthened efforts are needed in the public resource management area to reinforce taxrevenue performance, and further improve the quality and effectiveness of public expenditures, includingthat of social sector programs. More effective governance is needed in public sector management toimprove the quality and efficiency of public sector entities in the provision of services, in resourcemobilization, in the implementation of new policies and regulatory oversight, and in facilitating a well-functioning business environment. Significant gains in budgetary performance and resource allocation couldbe achieved by addressing some of the continuing public sector inefficiency problems. For example, in thepower sector-notwithstanding the recent improvements--system losses are still high (35 percent) andcollections low (85 percent of billings).

14. Given the magnitude of poverty, there is no room for complacency. The economy has the benefitof fairly comfortable budgetary and balance of payments situation. The macroeconomic stability and thecomfortableforeign reserves cushion provide yet another opportunity to resume the stalled structural reformprocess and attack poverty. GOB's stronger commitment to the unfinished policy and institutional reformprogram is essential to remove the perception of uncertainty in the business environment and create theconditions which will attract both domestic and foreign private investment to levels that would support asustained increase in economic growth. A continuing effort is also needed to improve public administrationand further strengthen poverty oriented social sector programs to ensure needed improvements in the qualityof social sector services.

15. The main reforms needed were summarized in the Paris Understanding for FY95: (i) attackingpoverty; (ii) improving public administration; and (iii) energizing the private sector. Since the Aid GroupMeeting (AGM) of April 1994, the GOB's reform efforts have varied in intensity and coverage, with mixedresults toward achieving the reform goals in each of these three areas. Taking these developments intoaccount, a near- and medium-term priority reform agenda for faster growth and poverty alleviation ispresented below.

A. Establishing a Facilitating Business Environment and Resuming Policy Reforms: Energizingthe Private Sector

16. Need for political stability. Since early 1994, increasing political uncertainty has createdeconomic uncertainty regarding the pace and timing of further policy reform actions and is adverselyaffecting Bangladesh's image as a potential host country for foreign direct investment. It is widely believedthat whatever the outcome of present political difficulties, the move towards markets and the private sectorwill not be abandoned. However, the current political environment is preventing Bangladesh from reapingthe full benefits of the important reforms achieved so far. The country urgently needs to re-establish aconsensus on national political processes to avoid costly disruptions in economic activity and push forwardwith the unfinished reform agenda.

17. Establishing a facilitating business environment. To realize the efficiency gains expected fromderegulation of markets and opening up of the economy, and exploit export opportunities in areas whereBangladesh has a comparative advantage, firms must be able to adjust their output and employment levels,and move their resources into relatively more profitable areas or exit from activities that appear no longerprofitable. To facilitate such adjustments and reduce the cost of doing business, the Government must domore to remove infrastructure bottlenecks, improve efficiency and flexibility of labor and financial markets,establish an effective commercial legal and judicial system to facilitate easy entry/exit, enforce contracts and

- iv -

protect property rights.

18. In infrastructure, efficient and expanding power, telecommunications, and transportation servicesare important in creating cost competitive and growing industries. To achieve rapid economic growth,Bangladesh's existing infrastructure capacity must not only be used more efficiently--through improvementsin operational efficiency and timely maintenance/rehabilitation--but also expanded. In this regard, attractingprivate investment--and management--into infrastructure will be particularly critical. Therefore, thelegal/regulatory and institutional framework should be developed and put into effect in order to pave theway for private investment, which is now anticipated in power, telecommunications, and gas sectors. Also,accelerating improvements in rural infrastructure is especially important for facilitating furtherdiversification and intensification in farm production and for the expansion of off-farm activities.

19. The legal framework governing labor markets must be reformed to institute a market-basedbargaining process that is free from government interference, and a system of severance liabilities that arein line with the market conditions and developing country norms. De-politicization of industrial relationswill benefit both the workers, businesses, and the economy directly by shifting the collective bargainingprocess to the negotiation table and eliminating the very costly economy-wide agitations, with also positiveimpact on Bangladesh's investment climate and external image. The Government should also review itsseverance payment system, with a view to bringing them in line with levels mandated by the labor law.

20. In the financial sector, the Government must undertake further actions to establish a financiallysound, efficient and competitive sector. As a priority measure, the Bangladesh Bank must embark on aprogram of bank restructuring to improve the financial health of the banking sector. More emphasis shouldalso be placed on institutional reforms and strengthening as these have lagged behind policy reforms. Theimproving supervision function of Bangladesh Bank itself needs to be strengthened further with particularemphasis on enforcement. In addition, the central bank also needs to continue improving the conduct ofmonetary policy, with an increasing shift towards indirect monetary policy instruments. Making theBangladesh Bank (BB) more autonomous would be an important step in strengthening monetary andfinancial management. In the area of loan recovery, pending actions should be taken to remove legalobstacles to debt recovery by amending the Financial Loan Courts Act (1990), to empower the courts toexecute their judgements, and strengthen these courts with additional judges, magistrates and police officersto enforce decrees for faster collection of defaulting loans. The banking sector also needs to have moreeffective competition. To this end, the Government should pursue more vigorously its two-prongedapproach--i.e., the privatization of nationalized commercial banks and the licensing of new private banks.

21. The Government has initiated some steps to reform the legal framework for markets and theiudicial system, but the process is incomplete in many instances and progress has been very slow in othercases. In addition to amendments to Financial Courts Act mentioned above, the already prepared drafts ofthe Bankruptcy Bill and the Foreign Investment Protection and Promotion Act should proceed through theneeded reviews without unnecessary delays and be submitted for Parliament's approval. The recent passingby Parliament of the Companies Bill (1994) and the amendment to the Negotiable Instruments Act of 1881should be followed by the modernization of other commercial legislation. Firm actions are also needed toimprove the efficiency of judicial administration and legal procedures.

22. Trade policy reforns. In the trade policy area, the Government should continue with its ongoingreforms towards achieving the already announced medium-term goal, within two years, of lowering theaverage level and dispersion of import tariffs, such that effective protection rates are comparable with thoseprevailing in internationally competitive developing countries. To remove policy uncertainty, theGovernment should also announce in advance the planned tariff changes for FY96 and FY97.

- v -

23. With respect to the import regime, the ultimate objective of future tariff rationalization shouldbe to move toward a lower, uniform tariff regime. Specifically, near-term steps should include: (i)lowering of higher tariffs further, accompanied by the removal of the import license fee, as well of the userand commodity specific tariff exemptions; as a result, over the next two years, a substantial reduction inthe dispersion of tariffs could be achieved, with a consequent fall in the (unweighted) average tariff ratebelow the current 30 percent; (ii) all the remaining trade-related quantitative restrictions (QRs) should beeliminated; and (iii) customs clearances should be speeded up through the implementation of off-shore pre-shipment inspection (PSI) and phasing out of the tariff values for the assessment of import-duty liabilities.VAT should be extended to textiles, although the Government finds this difficult in present circumstances.As regards the export regime: (i) few remaining export taxes and bans/restrictions on exports of someagricultural and manufactured goods should be phased out without much delay, since these are discouragingthe development of the corresponding activities--the objective of "protecting" consumers through importbans can be achieved more efficiently through competition; (ii) the efficiency of the duty drawback systemshould be enhanced through increased application of "flat" drawback rates. And in the area of exchangeregime, the limits placed on exporters in retaining their export proceeds--which are inconsistent with theadopted current account convertibility--should also be phased out.

24. Industrial Dolicy: privatization of state-owned enterpnses (SOEs). Reducing the size of theSOE sector through privatization is one of the key elements of the Government's structural reform programtowards greater reliance on markets and the private sector. In FY94, two enterprises were privatized. Andin FY95, the Privatization Board (PB) has handed over 7 enterprises to their new owners, and 7 more unitsare expected to be handed over. An additional 19 SOEs are in various stages of tendering. While asignificant share of excess manpower was reduced through voluntary separation schemes (VSS) and lay-offsup to end-FY94, the process has slowed down in FY95 and prospects for the remainder of FY95 appearunfavorable, particularly in the current uncertain political situation.

25. A more aggressive implementation of the privatization program is important not only to achievethe immediate intended objectives of eliminating the burden of inefficient SOEs on the economy andenhancing efficiency, but also to maintain the credibility of the Government's commitment to market-basedreforms and private sector development. Accordingly: (i) the Government should make a firn andunequivocal commitment to privatization process and take steps to speed up the implementation, includingthe allocation of adequate funds for meeting separation benefits; (ii) the PB's institutional capacity must bestrengthened quickly, using international and local expertise in technical, financial, and legal areas to carryout proper valuation of assets and market responsiveness, and prepare sales prospectuses and tenderdocuments; on this basis, the PB should expedite the privatization of enterprises identified for its FY95 andFY96 program; and (iii) the privatization program should be expanded beyond its current limited coverageand include other SOEs.

26. Successful progress in the implementation of privatization could also elevate support forexpanding the program not only to all of the manufacturing SOEs, but also utilities, now open to the privatesector. International experience has indicated that it is much easier to mobilize popular support forprivatization of SOEs (and/or other forms of major private sector presence) in, for example,telecommunications and power sectors, due to dissatisfaction with the performance of SOEs in these sectors.

27. Enhancing agricultural productivity. In addition to fostering significant growth in potentiallyvery dynamic manufacturing industries, enhancing the contribution of agriculture to economic growth willalso be important for raising the GDP growth rate. Despite the extreme scarcity of crop land, achievingan agricultural growth rate of close to 3 percent (the average realized in FY81-90) should be possiblethrough additional measures, including: (i) further improvements in research and extension services tofoster factor productivity growth and production of higher value products, including vegetables and

- vi -

horticulture crops, fish and shrimp, and silk; (ii) removal of any remaining policy distortion, including themaximum retail price for fertilizer and other emerging problems in the fertilizer market; (iii) the promotionof private sector initiatives in off-farm activities; and (iv) further improvements in the efficiency andproductivity of public expenditures in agriculture and natural resources. Policy reforms in other areas,together with accelerating improvements in rural infrastructure, should complement the broadly appropriateagricultural policies and the above listed actions in enhancing agricultural growth.

B. Improving Public Sector Management

28. Better uublic resource management. In the fiscal policy area, the Government's overridingconcern should be to maintain macroeconomic stability by remaining fiscally prudent, and continueimproving the quality and efficiency of public expenditures. This is important to accelerate the reformprocess and improve the business climate for domestic and foreign private investment.

29. The Government has achieved considerable improvements in the revenue as well as theexpenditure side of its budget. On the revenue side, the process of broadening the coverage of the VATand direct taxes must continue through the elimination of most exemptions. Stronger commitment is alsoneeded for strengthening the tax administration in order to improve tax compliance and enforcement.

30. With respect to the Annual Development Program (ADP), the Government has achieved asignificant increase in the implementation of ADP in FY94, while also effecting a satisfactory shift in theADP's composition toward social sectors. However, there is still heavy bunching of spending towards theend of the fiscal year. Moreover, while the implementation of taka-financed projects has been accelerated,a matching improvement in the implementation of donor-aided projects has not happened. Some of thereported FY94 ADP spending was in the form of reallocations within the budget and of advance paymentsthat are expected to be realized in actual investment in FY95. While the improving performance of ADPin the early part of FY95 also reflects a more determined government resolve in this area, for sustainedimprovements in the implementation and efficiency of the ADP as well as in related aid utilization, measuresinitiated in a number of areas need to be followed up: (i) procurement of goods/works/services will continueto be a critical area, where an action plan should be implemented to ensure effective application of GOB'srevised guidelines, including compliance with stipulated time limits; (ii) monitoring/enforcement and follow-up mechanisms will need to be strengthened and reinforced by institutionalizing accountability for projectimplementation performance; and (iii) greater financial delegation is needed for the implementation agencies.

31. Accelerating public sector management reforms. To support its efforts in resource mobilizationand policy reforms, the Government should also focus more intensely on the governance issues andaccelerate efforts aimed at improving the efficiency of the public sector entities in the provision of services,cost recovery, regulatory oversight, implementation of new policies, and in the establishment of afacilitating business environment. It should also move forward with the local government reform to promoteefficient decentralization and implementation of infrastructure and social sector programs more effectively.

32. In the power sector, while there has been some improvements recently, system losses (35percent) and low collections (85 percent of billings) continue to be the major problem for the BangladeshPower Development Board (BPDB) and Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA). Stronger commitmentwill be required to address the institutional and management issues for reducing system loss to an acceptablelevel. Meanwhile, in the transportation sector, reform progress has been satisfactory in BangladeshRailways (BR) in the reduction of excess manpower, in formulating an institutional reform and incontracting out ticketing operations to the private sector. However, the implementation of the BRinstitutional reforms still remains to be carried out. As regards the Bangladesh Inland Water TransportationAuthority (BIWTA) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transportation Corporation (BIWTC), there has been

- vii -

some progress in improving their operational efficiency since January 1994, but the implementation ofvarious reform action plans must be speeded up. There has been good progress in improving the planningand implementation of road projects.

33. Efforts aimed at making the key government agencies--such as the Customs Department, NationalBoard of Revenue (NBR), Board of Investment (BOI), Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Duty Exemptionand Drawback Office (DEDO)--more efficient and responsive need to be strengthened and speeded up.There is a need for a more serious and concerted effort to turn these entities into pro-active agencies topromote private sector development.

34. In some public sector agencies, such as Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation(BADC), Food Directorate, and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), staff rationalization isfacing funding constraints, requiring the support of the Government. Reform progress in the BWDBappears on schedule, though considerable time will be required to bring about qualitative changes in theoverall work environment.

35. In the civil service area, overall progress of the ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination ofredundant functions and restructuring/downsizing of government departments has been slow. Some difficultbut important medium- and long-term issues, such as the inter-cadre issues, have not been addressed yet,and not much progress is expected in improving personnel management and training in FY95. There is aneed for renewed commitment to these administrative reforms.

C. Attackdng Poverty

36. Strengthening of the social sector programs, rural development programs--including market-basedmicro credit--expansion of water supply and sanitation and safety nets are key elements of the Government'spoverty alleviation objective. The Government has continued its efforts to improve conditions in these areasby shifting more budgetary resources (both from the revenue budget and the ADP). This trend is continuingin the FY95 Budget. There is, however, need for continued effort to improve the quality of services in thesocial sectors.

37. In education, progress has continued in school enrollments, especially female enrollment at bothprimary and secondary levels. An increasing proportion of enrollments is in non-government schools andNGOs are providing non-formal primary education programs aimed at literacy and re-entry into formalprimary schools. Free textbooks for primary school students and stipends for female secondary schoolstudents assist the poor and females to enroll and complete schooling. The quality of primary schools isimproving through curriculum reform, free textbook distribution and increased teacher training and schoolsupervision. However, further quality improvement is necessary for improving the current unsatisfactorystudent completion and achievement rates and reducing the inefficiencies and wastage in the system.

38. There has been progress in most areas of family planning and primarv health care services.Given the long-term nature of processes, the actions need to be pursued with sustained resolve in orderachieve continued improvement in results. There is a need for reaching women and children with a widerange of family planning and maternal and child care services. The plan for targeting of younger couplesin family planning, for instance, and monitoring their contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) needs to beimplemented effectively. And the promotion of clinical methods of contraception will improve costeffectiveness. Private sector participation, which has started in the transport of contraceptives (in about asixth of the country) and information campaigns, should be promoted and expanded further.

- viii -

39. The FY95 government program for water supply and sanitation expansion is very appropriate,though the GOB's FY95 plan for the construction of more than 2 million rural latrines appears ambitious.Little progress has been made in articulating policies aimed at addressing urban poverty. GOB should playa more active role in coordinating the donors' efforts in this area to ensure that these complement andreinforce each other. It should also come up with an overall policy framework to deal with urbandevelopment and urban poverty issues. Given the complexity of the task involved, the GOB will needexternal support to deal with the situation. In this respect, the GOB has recently initiated a study on urbanpoverty with donor assistance.

40. The initiatives of BB, commercial banks and Grameen Bank to promote the expansion of soundmarket-oriented credit provision and savings mobilization in rural areas and urban slums are well placed.However, to ensure sustainable success in these efforts, the continuing pressure to lower interest rates forrural lending should be resisted. Also, efforts aimed at closing down unprofitable state-owned rural bankbranches should continue.

41. With respect to the targeted safety net programs, the GOB recently introduced food-for-education(FFE) program, which is aimed at encouraging primary education of children in poor families. GOB shouldmonitor cost effectiveness of this program vis-a-vis that of the other experimental programs in the primaryeducation subsector, as well of other targeted programms. The progress toward raising the food distributionunder the "vulnerable group development" (VGD) and the "food for work" (FFW) programs has beenmixed. While the distribution under FFW is expected to exceed the target of 500,000 MT in FY95, thatunder the VGD program is likely to fall short of 350,000 MT target. GOB and the donors need to considerways of supporting an expansion in this vital social safety net. This outcome also underscores the need forstrengthening of institutions for food assisted development programs, such that they can be integrated intothe overall development program.

42. The Government, taking into account the important linkage between poverty alleviation andenvironment, has also carried out a commendable process of consultation with cross-sectional groups of thesociety to develop a broad framework for addressing environmental issues and for completing an importantphase in the preparation of a "National Environmental Management Action Plan" (NEMAP). There is aconsiderable amount of additional work to be done in order to determine realistic environmental objectivesand priorities, based on economic analysis of costs and benefits involved, select a set of priority actions andthe agencies to implement them, and establish the needed institutional mechanism to implementenvironmental policies. The latter should rely heavily on appropriate pricing/taxation of resources/servicesand products, and be complemented by necessary monitoring mechanisms.

43. Accelerating reforms for faster growth. To achieve faster economic growth and povertyreduction, the Government needs to accelerate the slow moving reform program in all the key frontsdiscussed above. Incomplete reform effort would limit the success toward a sustained increase in growth,while a failure to move the reform program forward would most likely leave the current trends in growthand poverty reduction unchanged.

External Financing in FY96

44. Strong commitment to the acceleration of unfinished reforms and sustaining efforts to improvethe quality of public expenditure in general and public investment in particular would be important forBangladesh to continue receiving donor assistance in meeting its external financing needs. Recentimprovements in the ADP implementation and continuing efforts aimed at better prioritization ofdevelopment expenditures with emphasis toward social sectors and infrastructure are good signs. But theseefforts should be intensified and sustained. Assuming that such efforts continue and the GOB accelerates

- ix -

reforms, moderately rising external aid is needed in the medium-term to finance increasing imports, startingwith a project aid disbursement of about $1.3 billion for FY96. Commodity aid disbursements, projectedat $0.4 billion, would continue at roughly their expected FY95 level as result of continuing adjustmentoperations. And food aid disbursements are projected at $0.15 billion, consistent with the levels of foodaid in recent years. The pace and composition of FY96 aid disbursements will ultimately depend, however,on the speed at which the Government implements the needed reforms.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ANDPRIORITY REFORM AGENDA FOR RAPID GROWTH

A. INTRODUCTION

1. Objectives and scope. This year's Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for Bangladeshassesses recent economic and social developments and reviews the recent progress made in theimplementation of structural reforms and examines the economy's performance in FY94 and earlyFY95. Assessment of these developments is made against the intended policy and institutional changesand desired trends in investment, economic growth, and resource balances.

2. The principal theme of the report is the challenge of moving the economy to a higher growthpath in the remainder of 1990s, with a view to strengthening the economy's capacity to generate moreemployment and incomes, thus, tackling Bangladesh's principal development objective, i.e., povertyreduction. Accordingly, the CEM focuses on the crucial importance of accelerating policy andinstitutional reforms, building on the reform measures implemented in recent years and benefitting fromthe remarkable macroeconomic stability achieved.

3. With this general framework, Section B provides an overview of the recent macroeconomicstabilization and structural reform efforts. Section C reviews Bangladesh's economic performance inFY94 and early FY95. Section D looks at poverty trends, social indicators, and actions aimed atpoverty alleviation. Section E discusses the near- and medium-term policy and institutional reformpriorities in order to achieve sustained increases in savings, investment and economic growth, andgreater opportunities for the poor. Medium-term economic prospects and likely aid disbursementpatterns under a stronger/accelerated reform scenario are discussed in Section F. Finally, the Annexthat follows the text provides--in a matrix format--a recapitulation of the progress made by theGovernment in implementing the reform measures covered by the Paris Understanding for FY95, whichemerged at the April 1994 Aid Group Meeting in Paris.

B. BACKGROUND: AN OVERVIEW OF THE RECENT MACROECONOMICSTABILIZATION AND STRUCTURAL REFORM EFFORTS

4. The 1980s saw depressed incomes, savings, investment, and economic activity, feeding eachother. During FY80-FY84, GDP growth averaged 3.1 percent annually, the rate of inflation 13.4percent, the budget deficit 9.3 percent of GDP, and the external current account deficit reached 10percent of GDP (see Table 1). In the second half of the 1980s, macroeconomic performance wasmixed. At an annual average GDP growth rate of 3.4 percent in FY85-89, economic activity continuedto be very sluggish, showing only a slight improvement over the first half of the 1980s, and falling farshort of what is needed to reduce the widespread poverty facing the country. While natural disastersexacerbated this outcome, particularly because of the very high share of the agricultural sector in GDP(40 percent in this period), so did the depressed domestic demand associated with very low investmentactivity.

5. The sluggish economic performance of the 1980s, and particularly, the low private investmentactivity in the second half of the 1980s could partly be linked to the ad hoc and weakly pursuedmacroeconomic adjustment and structural reform initiatives of the 1980s by the Government. Indeed,starting in the early 1980s, the Government initiated steps, signaling the start of a process of industrialderegulation, trade liberalization, promotion of the private sector, and the divesting of state-owned

TABLE 1: MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, FY80-FY94

FY80-84 FY85-89 FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94(Average) (Average) (P)

(In Percentages)

GDP growth rate: 3.1 3.4 6.6 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.6

Per Capita Income(in US dollars) 145 174 208 213 213 214 224

(As Percent of GDP)Savins:

Domestic Saving 1.6 2.9 2.7 4.1 5.8 6.5 7.1National Saving 4.4 5.8 5.8 7.3 9.7 11.3 12.6

Investment:

Gross Investment 14.4 12.7 12.8 11.5 12.1 13.8 14.2Public 6.2 6.2 6.4 5.7 5.5 6.2 6.4Private 8.1 6.2 6.4 5.8 6.6 7.6 7.8

Budnet:Total Revenue 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.9 12.0 11.9Tax Revenue 7.2 7.2 7.8 7.8 8.8 9.6 9.2

Total Expenditure 18.4 16.6 17.1 16.4 15.9 17.6 18.0Current Expenditure a/ 6.4 7.7 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.9 8.8

Overall Budget Deficit b/ -9.3 -7.5 -7.9 -7.2 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9

Balance of Payments:

Exports cl 5.4 6.0 6.8 7.3 8.4 9.8 9.8Imports d/ 18.3 15.8 16.9 15.0 14.8 16.8 16.2

Current Account Balance -9.9 -6.7 -7.0 4.2 -2.4 -2.6 -1.6

(In Percentages)

Debt Service Ratio e/ 9.7 14.1 13.7 12.5 11.5 10.2 9.8

External Debt(million US dollars) - - 10,254 11,392 12,250 13,331

Rate of Inflation f/ 13.4 10.1 9.3 8.9 5.1 1.3 1.8

Memorandum Items:

BB Gross Reserves:(million US dollars) - - 585 966 1,679 2,197 2,822(in months of imports) - - 1.9 3.3 5.7 6.5 8.1

Exchange Rate (TKJUS $) 20.10 29.99 32.93 35.67 38.15 39.15 40.0

Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); Twenty Years of NationalAccounting of Bangladesh (1972-72 to 1991-92),BBS, July 93; Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) , Bangladesh;Bangladesh Bank (BB).

a/ Excludes food subsidies.b/ Defined as the difference between expenditure/GDP and

revenue/GDP ratios, further adjusted for a residual amount to reflect the differencebetween the fiscal accounts and estimates of total financing of the Government

c/ Exports' imply merchandise exports only.d/ Imports' imply merchandise imports only.e/ Represents the ratio of debt service to total foreign exchange

earnings from export of goods and non-factor services, plusworkers remittances.

f/ Based on Dhaka Consumers Price Index (CPI).P: Provisional

enterprises (SOEs). The notable reform measures include the privatization of 33 jute mills and 37textile mills, agricultural input market liberalization, replacement of the positive import list with anegative list of banned/restricted imports, a significant reduction of quantitative restrictions (QRs) onimports, and the initiation of steps aimed at improving the health of the financial sector and liberalizingthe interest rates. However, many of the intended structural reforms were postponed.

6. In early 1991, the Government of Bangladesh, building on the structural reform initiatives ofthe 1980s, launched a more deternined and comprehensive structural reform program to open up andestablish a liberalized, market- and private sector-driven economy, operating within a stablemacroeconomic environment. Since 1991, the GOB has been introducing important reform measures inthe fiscal, financial sector, exchange rate, trade and industrial policies, and in the area of publicresource management and public enterprise sector. There are still many areas where either the reformagenda is incomplete or important actions are yet to take place. Many of these reform efforts have beensupported by several adjustment credits from IDA', the Fund's Enhanced Structural AdjustmentFacility (ESAF) for the period FY91-93, by loans from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and othermultilateral and bilateral donors. Some key reform actions introduced by the Government over theperiod spanning FY92-FY94 and in early FY95 are reviewed in the remainder of this Section.'

7. Fiscal policy reforms. Apart from restraining current spending as part of its fiscaladjustment effort, the GOB initiated a major tax reform to strengthen budgetary resource mobilization,and also to improve the efficiency and equity of the tax system. The introduction of a value-added tax(VAT) with the FY92 budget was the centerpiece of the tax reform effort. The VAT was introduced ata uniform rate of 15 percent at the manufacturer-cum-import level.3' Together with protection-neutralsupplementary duties, this system largely replaced the earlier structure of differentiated sales tax onimports and excise taxes on domestic goods.4' Efforts have continued to improve the effectiveness ofVAT administration, expand the coverage of VAT through the removal of some exemptions5' and byexpanding the number of registered traders, with a view to extending the VAT to wholesale and retailtrade services. The FY95 Budget introduced registration of wholesalers on an optional basis. Changeshave also been made to rationalize the direct tax system by lowering the high corporate and personalincome tax rates and reducing exemptions.

8. With these tax reforms, the total revenues of the central government rose significantly.Revenues which had stagnated at around 9 percent of GDP over a decade in the 1980s, grew to 10.9percent of GDP by FY92 and to 11.9 percent by FY94. Shortage of local funds had for longconstrained Bangladesh's project implementation capacity and the country's absorptive capacity forproject aid. The recent improvement in revenue performance has virtually eliminated this local fundsconstraint, and high priority and foreign assisted projects are, as a general rule, now fully funded.

!' Financial Sector Adjustment Credit (FSAC), Public Resource Management Adjustment Credit (PRMAC), Second Industrial Sector AdjustmentCredit (ISAC 11), and Jute Sector Adjustment Credit (JSAC).

v For a more detailed review and assessment of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform measures introduced by GOB in the early 1990s,see: The World Bank, Bangladesh: From Stabilization to Growth, March 17, 1994 (Report No. 12724-BD).

3' Textiles, fertilizer, medicine, books, the output of cottage industries, and (more recently) capital goods and other agricultural inputs have remainedexempted from the VAT.

4' Note that textiles, hand-made cigarettes (biri), and bank services, which have not yet brought under the coverage of the VAT, are still subjectto excises.

3' During FY93, VAT was extended to cover: in the industrial sector, natural gas, petroleum products, contractual manufacturing and cigarettes;in the service sector, services rendered by: the water supply and sewerage authority; jewelry, goldsmith and gold melting shops; general insurancecompanies other than life insurance policies; courier companies; privately owned medical clinics; clearing and forwarding agents; and beauty parlors.

9. However, the process of tax reform is not complete yet, and the effectiveness of the taxadministration needs to be strengthened further in the tax collection area. Currently, over 30 percent ofthe total tax revenues come from customs duties and, with the inclusion of VAT collected, imports stillcontinue to be the principal source of tax revenue in Bangladesh as the trade-related taxes account forabout 62 percent of the total tax revenues. Only 55 percent of VAT revenues (including thesupplementary tax) are collected from domestic sources and income/profit taxes account for only 18percent of tax revenues. As for the tax collection performance, the outstanding income tax arrears haveremained high.

10. On the exDenditure side, efforts are still continuing to better integrate the Three-Year RollingInvestment Program (TYRIP), which has been introduced as a framework for prioritizing the investmentprogram, into the budget cycle for ensuring adequate funding within a consistent macroeconomicframework. For improving aid utilization and project implementation, the GOB also introduced somemeasures in FY92-FY94, including the new procurement guidelines, revised personnel policies affectingproject implementation (including training of the staff), higher project financial authority limits,simplified procedures for land acquisition and resolution of resettlement issues, and theinstitutionalization of a system for monitoring large projects. These actions are aimed at: improving thequality and efficiency of the Annual Development Program (ADP); achieving the needed shifts in thecomposition of ADP by increasing its poverty orientation; strengthening the project pipeline; andproviding adequate current funding for high priority social services and operations and maintenance.

11. These efforts have shown some improvements in the composition of public expenditurestowards social sectors and in the implementation of especially non-donor funded projects (see Sections Cand D below for details). However, sustained efforts are needed to improve the quality anddevelopment impact of public expenditures, particularly in the area of prioritization, projectimplementation and aid utilization, and avoiding investment in areas where private investment could takeplace. In project implementation, there are continuing deficiencies in the effective application ofprocurement guidelines. Delays ranging from 9 to 28 months were observed in the procurementprocessing from the floating of tender until the time of work order, thus, causing delays in aidutilization. The processing and approval of technical assistance project proposals (TAPPs) continues tobe a slow process, thus adversely affecting project preparations.

12. Financial sector reforms. One of the important reform efforts in this sector relates to thesteps aimed at moving toward market determination of interest rates, though the process is not completeyet. This is because of the remaining interest rate controls and the significant market power of thenationalized commercial banks (NCBs). To improve the sector's performance, the GOB also enactedthe Financial Courts Act in 1990 and established twenty-seven special courts to facilitate debt recoveryby the banks, and established a credit information bureau (CIB) in the Bangladesh Bank (BB). InDecember 1994, the BB's Banking Control Department issued a new circular--BCD 20--whichintroduced new guidelines for loan classification and provisioning. The latter stipulates theestablishment of international classification and provisioning standards within 2-5 years, though a shorterphase-in period would be preferable. GOB has also carried out some recapitalization exercises toimprove the financial health of NCBs, which have been weakened by sizeable nonperforming loans.Efforts have also begun to strengthen the supervisory capacity of (BB) and regulatory enforcement. Toimprove the off-site surveillance of banks, the BB introduced a bank rating system based on theCAMEL system used in the U.S.. Also, a credit risk analysis system was established for large loans,and some steps have been taken to strengthen BB's on-site inspection capacity. In addition, 34unprofitable rural branches of banks have been closed since last year, and memoranda of understandinghave been signed with five private banks regarding the improvement of their asset positions.

13. Despite the progress made, Bangladesh has a long way to go for establishing a healthy andoperationally efficient financial system. The principal problem is the very poor quality ofintermediation, resulting in huge arrears which have yet to be recognized. This serious problem existsboth in the NCBs and most private banks. As the banks try to recoup the costs of sizeable non-performing loans, the real lending rates are also pushed up under the dominant position of NCBs, withlikely negative effects on private investment. Also, the BB still specifies the floor deposit interest ratesfor savings accounts and fixed deposits in banks, and establishes interest bands for lending toagriculture, exports, and small and cottage industry (see Appendix Table 6.5 for details).§' Finally, thedominant role of NCBs needs to be reduced substantially to promote competition.

14. Exchanee Rate Policy and Exchange System. On January 1, 1992, the Government unifiedthe exchange rate system by abolishing the "Secondary Exchange Market System", under which asystem of multiple exchange rates had been implemented. Also, significant improvements have beenmade by removing most of the exchange controls on current account transactions, thus effectingconvertibility in most of these transactions.2' And in April 1994, Bangladesh accepted the Article VIIIobligations of the International Monetary Fund. This is a significant step in that it constitutes acommitment to the current account convertibility. Another positive step includes the development of aninterbank foreign exchange market. The Government has also been managing the exchange rate policyflexibly, with a view to avoiding appreciation of the real exchange and also maintaining macroeconomicstability. The real effective exchange rate depreciated by about 10 percent between 1990 and 1993.More recently, following a 5.7 percent appreciation during October 1993 and January 1994, it continuedto depreciate between February 1994 and November 1994 by 6.6 percent (see Appendix Table 3.12).

15. Industrial and trade policy reforms. In the industrial policy area, the Industrial Policy of1991 and its subsequent (late 1992) amendments further relaxed the investment sanctioning regulations,removed the remaining regulatory impediments to foreign investment8', reduced the number of areasreserved for the public sector to a very few by opening telecommunications, power generation, anddomestic air transport to the private sector. However, the legal/regulatory environment in line withdesirable market structures and appropriately developed pricing policies still need to be worked out inorder to attract private investment into these latter sectors.

16. In the power sector, some steps were taken recently to initiate a sector reform program aimedat improving the performance and efficiency of the sector and promoting private sector entry. InSeptember 1994, the Cabinet approved in principle a reform package prepared by an interninisterialcommittee. The key elements of the reform program include: (i) improving the performance of theexisting utilities through the restructuring, corporatization and commercialization of Bangladesh PowerDevelopment Board (BPDB) and Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA), and rationalization ofdistribution areas among BPDB, DESA, and Rural Electrification Board (REB); (ii) establishing anappropriate (transparent) regulatory framework to promote efficiency and competition; (iii) forming a"Power Cell" within the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to manage the reform effort; and(iv) attracting private investment. Success of this initiative will depend on the Government's continuedcommitment. A similar reform effort is also being pursued in the natural gas sector. Notwithstanding

t Only the small and cottage industry (SCI) rate is currently subsidized, and the banks are reimbursed for the subsidy from a limited transparentfacility.

Z' For year to year changes in Bangladesh's exchange controls over various categories of balance of payments transactions, see: The InternationalMonetary Fund, Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, (various years).

!' Under the 1980 Foreign Private Investment Act, foreign private investment is protected against nationalization and expropriation and is given,in principle, equal treatment. And currently, foreign investors can undertake projects in all but 5 reserved areas, with 100 percent ownership andare permitted to repatriate capital invested, dividends, royalties and capital gains.

- 6 -

these positive steps, however, substantial structural reform challenges remain to be tackled in the powerand gas sectors.

17. In telecommunications, a second concession for the provision of basic telephone service in theremaining 200 rural areas was awarded in July 1994 to another private company. The Government hasaccepted the principle of competition in the provision of cellular, paging and radio trunking services,and the Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board (BTTB) issued a tender invitation in July 1994,inviting applications for additional operators in the latter service areas. However, the overall reformprocess has been slow. The Cabinet has yet to review and approve a Telecommunications policyStatement, articulating the Government's policy for the sector. The amendment to the BTTB Ordinance,transferring the regulatory responsibility from the BTTB to the Ministry, has yet to be submitted to theParliament. And the Government's recent authorization of a major expansion in the existing basicnetwork by BTTB represents a missed opportunity for rapidly introducing a second operator in thesector through private investment and management.

18. In trade, the import regime has been the principal area of focus for reform actions. Thecoverage of QRs has been reduced from 315 four-digit tariff headings (about 25 percent of the totaltariff code headings) in FY90 to about 104 four-digit commodity categories in FY95, with thedebanning of five items announced in this year's Budget. Of these, only 26 categories (mainly textiles)are now kept in the Control List clearly for trade-related reasons. There has been also a considerableprogress in lowering the average level of import tariffs, particularly by lowering the very high rates onfinal goods. The maximum statutory tariff rate was reduced from 509 percent in FY91 to 60 percent inFY95, while the highest rate on intermediates and some final goods has come down to 45 percent. Theonly exceptions are textile products which enjoy about 20 percent additional nominal protection throughthe VAT exemption of domestic textile production. Over the same period, the unweighted average tariff(inclusive of the 2.5 percent license fee) was reduced from 89 percent to 30 percent, and the number ofoperative tariff slabs was reduced from 26 in FY92 to 6 in FY95. However, between FY91 and FY95,the dispersion of import tariffs did not show a decline. The principal reason for this is the continueduse of tariff concessions. And in FY95, the dispersion of the unweighted tariffs in fact has increased,as tariffs on additional inputs and capital machinery (for the export industry) were lowered to zerorate.- The continuing dispersion of nominal tariff rates, which implies that "effective protection rates"(EPRs) have most likely renained widely dispersed also, has been an important shortcoming of thewhole tariff rationalization effort so far.

19. An administrative order in November 1994 enhanced the use of the pre-shipment inspection(PSI) mechanism12' by allowing certificated values to override the existing system of "tariff values"used for assessing tariff liabilities. The latter, which have been a major source of disputes and costlydelays in customs clearances, has also been pushing the protection upward because of higher tariffvalues used.

20. On the export side, the progress in reforming the export policy, regulatory and infrastructuralenvironment has been slow. Export bans, used as a way of "protecting" consumers, still exist oncertain agricultural products--including wheat, pulses, onion, jute and sun-hemp seeds, unprocessed orfresh prawns and shrimp, and whole bamboo and cane--and manufactured products--including urea,ferrous and non-ferrous metals and their scraps, petroleum and certain petroleum products, gur andkhandari sugar, certain types of rice bran and wooden logs, and edible oils and milk products. Andthere are export taxes on hides and skins. Also, the pace of planned actions has been slow in extending

' The coefficient of variance increased from 65 percent in FY91 to 67 percent in FY95.

°' PSI scheme basically allows importers to contract an offshore agency to certify the value of the goods they are importing.

- 7 -

the Special Bonded Warehouse (SBW) scheme to products beyond ready made garments (RMG), inmaking the Duty Drawback Scheme (DDS) more effective through the expansion of "flat" drawbackrates (which are easy to apply), in improving the performance of the Duty Exemption and DrawbackOffice (DEDO), and in making the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) a pro-active and effective entity.

21. In agriculture, most of the negative policy distortions hampering agriculture--affectingirrigation, fertilizer use and the cropping pattern, and trade--have been eliminated, and Bangladesh hasreached rice self-sufficiency in years of normal weather. To support these positive policy reforms andfoster agricultural growth, the Government has also continued the implementation of its long-term ruralinfrastructure development program, which has recently become better integrated. More recently,however, problems appear to have arisen in the fertilizer market due to disruptions at the factory gatedeliveries--which is supposed to work on the principle of first-come-first-served--and the introduction ofmaximum retail price irrespective of the distance from the point of delivery. The price controls whichhave fixed of factory-gate and retail prices below what the market might have shown have created asituation of excess demand and (reportedly) speculative holdings at a time of increasing demand duringthe cultivation of Irri-boro (winter rice), causing realized prices to rise sharply.''' In response, theGovernment has also involved the district administrations in the distribution of fertilizer. Thesedistortionary developments may hamper the development of competitive production/distribution activitiesin the fertilizer market, also adversely affecting the long-term development of agriculture.

22. Public enterDrise reforn and privatization. The public sector's domination over industryhas fallen sharply as a result of the denationalizations and privatizations in the 1970s and early 1980s.At end-FY93, there were 214 non-financial SOEs'2 1, with assets of over $13 billion, sales of $3.6billion, and 294,890 workers. The contribution of all SOEs to GDP amounted to 6.1 percent in FY92--14.3 percent in industry, 7.6 percent in services, and 0. 1 percent in agriculture. Public ownershipremains high in key subsectors including jute, textiles, steel, fertilizer, sugar, hydrocarbons, and almostall the utilities. Losses of the SOEs--which averaged close to $300 million (over 1 percent of GDP) inFY92-FY93--constitute a major burden on the budget and divert resources away from pressingareas.L' Furthermore, costs of their inefficiency are also shifted to industries that have to use theiroutput.

23. Reducing the size of the SOE sector through privatization is one of the key elements of theGovernment's structural reform program towards greater reliance on markets and the private sector. Aspart of this objective, in October 1991, the Government had announced a list of 46 SOEs slated for thefirst stage of privatization--including SOEs in textile, steel and engineering, sugar and other food, andchemicals--and in March 1993 established the Privatization Board (PB), which is responsible for theimplementation of the privatization program. Also, to reduce excess manpower in SOEs, 25,000workers were retrenched from the jute sector between June 1990 and December 1993. And in 1994, afocused program of privatization and restructuring has also started in the jute sector, with the support ofIDA's Jute Sector Adjustment Credit (JSAC).A4' With this latter expansion, the privatization

11' For example, recently the realized prices for urea reached the range of Tk 300-350 per 50kg bag, in contrast to the (fixed) mill-gate price ofTk 186.25 (or $93 per MT) and retail price of Tk 230 ($114 per MT). Currently, the f.o.b. price of urea in the region (Jakarta, Bangkok) is inthe range of $200-250 per MT.

'2' Excluding Railways, Telephone and Telegraph, and financial SOEs.

"L' Within the public sector, jute, power, and railways account for a large share of the losses.

!-' In addition to the pfivatization of 18 jute mills, the program also includes voluntary retrenchment, retraining of the displaced workers, and debtrestructuring components. So far the progress has been slow, however, because of the delays in the implementation of closing units, privatization,and debt restructuring. Until now, the GOB has closed 4 public jute mills, downsized I mill, and reduced employment by 12,600 in the jutesubsector. During the remainder of FY95, five jute units are expected to be closed and 10,000 workers are to be separated from these mills.

- 8 -

program's coverage amounted--in terms of FY91 values--to less than 6 percent of the total assets of allSOEs (excluding petroleum) and 18 percent of total operational losses.'5 '

24. Despite its modest coverage, so far the implementation of the privatization program in generaland that of the jute sector in particular has been slow. Overall, since FY93, a total of 18 SOEprivatizations have been finalizedL'' through February 1995, involving 6 SOEs in chemicals, 7 intextiles, 3 in steel/engineering, and 2 in sugar/food. Of these, only 11 SOEs have actually been handedover to their new owners--2 in FY93, 2 in FY94, and 7 in FY95. The remaining 7 are expected to behanded over soon. Currently, an additional 19 enterprises are in various stages of tendering process.For FY96, the PB has a provisional list of additional 41 SOEs to be privatized. While a significantshare of excess manpower was reduced through voluntary separation schemes (VSS) and lay-offs up tothe end of FY94, the process has slowed down in FY95, and prospects for the remainder of FY95 donot appear favorable, particularly in the present uncertain political situation. Indeed, the implementationof privatizations/closures of jute mills under the JSAC will be a critical test of whether this problem canbe overcome.

C. IMPACT OF REFORMS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCEIN FY94 AND EARLY FY95

25. Economic performance during 1993/94 was in many respects a continuation of the trends ofthe past several years. The achievement of macroeconomic balance was even further strengthenedduring the year; but the opportunity this strengthened macro performance presented for wider structuralreforms to accelerate growth and reduce poverty was only weakly pursued.

26. For FY94, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) estimated that GDP grew at 4.6 percentand the investment rate reached 14.2 percent of GDP. The budget deficit remained under 6 percent ofGDP with much of the deficit financed through concessional foreign aid; the rate of inflation was lessthan 2 percent for the second consecutive year-l; the external current account deficit of the balance ofpayments fell to 1.6 percent of GDP; the overall balance of payments was positive; and foreign reservesgrew to eight months of imports. This is an impressive stabilization performance and a tribute to thesound macroeconomic management of the Government. Other important developments that havecontributed to this performance include the progress towards foodgrain self-sufficiency; the continuedgrowth of non-traditional manufactured exports; the increase of remittances; and continued inflows offoreign aid.

27. This performance reflects a continuation of fundamentally favorable trends. Over the past fiveyears GDP growth averaged 4.7 percent, well above the 3.8 percent realized in FY80-FY89 (Table 1);exports have been rising faster than GDP; government current revenues have been rising faster thancurrent expenditures; national saving has doubled as a percent of GDP; the growth of money, credit andinflation have steadily fallen; and expenditures on development have risen relative to currentexpenditure.

The World Bank, Bangladesh: From Stabilization to Growth, op.cit., page 108.

± In the sense that the winning bids have already been announced.

ii' Based on consumer price indices. Implied GDP deflator and the wholesale price indices for agricultutal and industrial products indicate a higherannual increase in the general price level.

- 9 -

28. This encouraging macroeconomic performance stands in stark contrast to the harsh realities oflife in Bangladesh. With almost half the population living in absolute poverty and per capita income of$224, there is no room for complacency. The improved macroeconomic situation creates theopportunity to attack poverty with greater vigor. This in turn will require an acceleration in the pace ofeconomic growth through higher rate of investment and savings and increased productivity. The mainpolicy challenges include to: maintain macroeconomic stability; further reform financial policies andinstitutions; open the economy further; privatize and restructure state owned enterprises; improvequality and public spending; and reform public administration.

Economic Growth in FY94

29. Real GDP growth in FY94 was 4.6 percent, compared to an average annual growth of 3.4percent achieved in the second half of the 1980s, and 4.5 percent in FY93 (Table 1).'82 The minorshortfall from the target growth rate of 4.8 percent in FY94 can be attributed largely to continued lowgrowth in agriculture (1.8 percent), particularly in crops (0.5 percent), which has a large share in GDP(Appendix Table 2.4). In addition, while industrial growth (8.5 percent) was higher, its contribution toGDP is still fairly small. However, the dominant service sector grew at 5.3 percent in FY94,compensating for the weak performance of agriculture.

30. Agricultural growth was low primarily because of a 1.8 percent fall in foodgrain productionfrom the record level achieved in FY93 (see Appendix Table 7.3). Farmers reacted to the sharp fall inrice prices in FY93 by a 2 percent reduction in total fertilizer offtake and 4 percent decline in use ofdiesel for irrigation in FY94 (see Appendix Table 7.8). The impact of the crop shortfall on growth wasoffset by some recovery in non-crop agriculture, particularly in fisheries and livestock, which are likelyto have benefitted from easier access to bank credit. Major cash crops also declined in FY94--raw juteby 10 percent and sugarcane by 5 percent (Appendix Tables 7.6 and 7.3, respectively); the decline inFY94 of jute crop output can be seen as a supply response partly to the 11 percent decline in growers'prices in FY93.

Economic Growth Prospects in FY95

31. Growth prospects in FY95 suffered a setback from drought conditions which affected aman(summer rice) cultivation in 35 districts; out of these, 16 north-western districts were the worst affected.Average rainfall in the Rajshahi Division during the aman planting season (July-August) was only about50 percent of normal levels. Preliminary assessment of the FY95 aman crop changed considerablybetween the various Government agencies. These estimates range from 8.5 million MT to 9.0 millionMT, or 4-10 percent below the FY94 level (9.4 million MT). This shortfall might have been at leastpartly compensated by higher winter crop production--boro (winter rice) and wheat and other rabi(winter) crops--as farmers are likely to have tried to make up for these losses. Rice prices havecontinued to rise sharply in the post-aman harvest season so far, and this might have induced somesupply response in the rabi crops. There are anecdotal reports of continued higher non-crop activities inthe rural areas in fisheries, livestock, poultry and horticulture. In view of the possibility of somerecovery in rabi and other crops during the rest of the year, and also in non-crop agriculture, overallagricultural growth could still improve over the low FY94 level.

32. Diesel sales during the first four months of FY95 was about 40 percent higher than thecorresponding FY94 level. This suggests some appreciable pick up in economic activities, particularlysupplementary irrigation for aman and in transport. The quantum index of large scale manufacturing for

'MThe FY94 GDP growth estimate is still provisional and expected to be revised.

- 10 -

July-November shows an 8 percent growth over the corresponding period of FY94. Chemicals, foodand tobacco, and basic metals sub-sectors have performed relatively well, while the cotton textilessubsector has lagged behind last year's performance. Industrial growth in FY95 and beyond willdepend on export prospects for a number of manufactured products, particularly ready-made garments inFY95. Available information on exports and credit to the private sector suggest a pick-up in economicactivity in FY95 so far (details are discussed in a later section).

Trends in Investment and Savings

33. Gross fixed investment (GDI) is estimated by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) tohave risen marginally from 13.8 percent of GDP in FY93 to 14.2 percent in FY94 (Table 1). Thisincrease in the overall investment rate has been largely due to a rise in public investment under theADP. BBS's preliminary estimate of public investment in Table 1 does not, however, fully reflect thisexpansion. The private investment to GDP ratio, while has been on a slowly rising trend since FY91and showed a marginal increase in FY94 over FY93, continues to be still lower than the 8.1 percentobserved in the early 1980s and much lower than what is needed in a private sector-led economicgrowth of 6-7 percent (see Table 7). National savings performance improved further in FY94, whileforeign savings fell to 1.6 percent of GDP. Foreign savings represented only 11 percent of GDI.

34. While the incentive structure has improved over the years as a result of macroeconomic andsectoral policy reforms, private investment in the formal sector has not yet picked up. Some of the keyelements of the unfavorable business environment are inadequate infrastructure and uncertain powersupplies. Problems in the financial sector have also constrained access to bank credit for financinginvestment. These constraints continue to cause considerable delays and raise the cost of doing businessin Bangladesh and hence adversely affect the competitiveness of domestic activities, which is likely tohave discouraged potential local and foreign investors alike. (A more detailed discussion onBangladesh's investment climate is contained in Section E below).

35. Public investment has increased considerably in FY94, largely on account of higher ADPrealization. Expenditure under the FY94 ADP is estimated to have reached to Tk 90 billion,representing 92 percent of the original ADP target and a 37 percent increase over the FY93 ADPspending level (see Appendix Table 5.4). As pointed out earlier, over the past two years the GOB hastaken a number of measures to improve project implementation. These policy and proceduralimprovements and effective monitoring mechanisms have not yet been fully institutionalized and thehigh ADP realization in FY94 could be attributable partly to reallocations within the budget and aheavily bunched pattern of spending towards the end of the fiscal year. For instance, the ADPspending was much more bunched in FY94 than in earlier years, with 28 percent of the annual targetreported to have been spent in June. In addition, there were sizeable advance payments in FY94, suchas Tk 4.4 billion under the Jamuna Bridge project, which relate to investment that will be carried out inFY95 and beyond. There were also transfers of Tk 2.1 billion of capital expenditure from the currentbudget to the FY94 ADP, which complicate the comparability with past ADPs but has however beenincluded for the purpose of estimating overall public investment.

36. Public investment performance in the key sectors under the FY94 ADP has been somewhatmixed (see Appendix Table 5.4). Judged against the nominal 37 percent increase in the overall ADPspending, agricultural investment performance was somewhat better than the average, whileimplementation in the water sector was disappointing (Table 2). The increase in the share of industry inFY94 does not represent an expansion in the public sector's role. Rather, this is mostly for preparingthese units for privatization and for maintenance/replacement purposes. Investment performance inenergy was mixed; while power sector investment expanded, investment in oil and gas declined in

- 11 -

FY94. Infrastructure accounted for a large share (27 percent) of the ADP, with ADP investment intransport and communications expanding rapidly. There has been a considerable improvement in theshare of ADP resources allocated to the social sectors in the last few years. Educational spending,which represented only 4 percent of the total ADP in FY90, has increased at an impressive rate,accounting for 10 percent of the ADP now.'9' Investment performance in population and health hasalso been reasonably satisfactory with their combined share doubling since FY90 to almost 8 percent inFY94.

Table 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth in Key Sectorsunder the Annual Development Program

(As percent of total ADP size)

Growth ofADP in

Sectors Sectoral Shares (%) FY94 (%)

FY93 FY94

Agriculture 5.7 5.8 40.1Rural Development 5.6 5.3 31.1Water Resources 9.4 6.3 -8.4Industry 1.1 7.1 115.1Power 15.4 13.5 20.6Oil, Gas and NR 7.3 3.6 -31.7Transport 14.8 17.2 59.5Communications 2.2 6.0 269.7Physical PlanningHousing/Water 3.6 3.5 33.8Education 8.1 10.2 74.2Population 4.3 4.5 44.2Health 3.1 3.1 36.4

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 37.1

Source: Implementaion, Monitoring and Evaluation Division

37. Another area where public investment rose appreciably is in rural infrastructure--which isimportant for raising the factor productivity in agriculture--and other investment supported under thefood-for-work (FFW) programs, with the volume of wheat distributed under this channel rising by 40percent over the low FY93 level.

Fiscal Developments and Issues

38. GOB has continued to manage its budgetary operations prudently, with the budget deficitbeing limited to below 6 percent of GDP every year since FY92 (Table 1). This has been achievedpartly through improvements in tax policy, notably, the introduction of VAT, and an associateddomestic tax effort, supplemented by better control of current expenditures in recent years. The overallbudget deficit remained at 5.9 percent of GDP in FY94, despite the significant increase in developmentspending. As in the past, much of the deficit continues to be financed through concessional donor

L* A food-for-education (FFE) program was introduced under the FY94 ADP to encourage primary education of children in poor families. Theallocation for FFE (Tk 0.8 billion in FY94), which is part of the ADP education sector allocation, has been almostdoubled in FY95 (Tk 1.5 billion).GOB should monitor the cost effectiveness of this program vis-a-vis that of other experimental programs in the primary education subsector as wellas of other targeted programs.

-12 -

assistance (see Table 3). Unfortunately, however, with respect to the domestic financing of itsbudgetary debt, the Government continued, as in FY93, replacing the low interest treasury bills (TBs)with high interest savings bonds, which are not only high cost--despite the recent reduction in the ratespaid on these--but also not traded, and therefore, do not contribute to deepening the capital market.

39. The rapid growth--averaging 19 percent annually--in budgetary revenues achieved duringFY91-93 slowed down to 8.5 percent in FY94, with the revenue/GDP ratio remaining about the samne,because of some shortfalls in the major taxes administered by the National Board of Revenue (NBR).While this outcome partly reflects the lukewarm growth in economic activities and hence in the tax basein FY94, it also reflects some changes in the tax structure (see Table 3) as well as continued weaknessin tax enforcement, and raises questions about the sustainability of the revenue growth achieved inrecent years. Total budgetary expenditures increased a bit faster than revenue, from 17.6 percent ofGDP in FY93 to 18 percent in FY94, largely due to the rise in ADP spending; the expansion in currentspending was contained to slightly less the nominal GDP growth rate. Consequently, there was a shiftin the composition of public expenditures towards development spending. GOB was also able to financean increased share (32 percent) of the ADP in FY94. Net foreign financing of the deficit fell from 5.6percent of GDP to 4.9 percent, largely as a result of increased external debt amortization and decline inproject aid disbursements.

40. Trends in budgetarv revenues in FY94. The tax/GDP ratio declined from 9.6 percent inFY93 to 9.2 percent in FY94 on account of some shortfall in the major taxes administered by NBR--VAT, customs duties, income tax and excise duties (see Tables 1 and Table 3). Total NBR-administered taxes in FY94 amounted to Tk 89.4 billion, falling about 4.5 percent short of thebudgetary target (Appendix Table 5.2).2°' The annual nominal growth in NBR taxes slowed downappreciably in FY94 to about 5 percent, compared to 18 percent per annum during FY92 and FY93.The shortfall in VAT was due to the slow expansion of domestic VAT coverage, slow import growth,and drop in tobacco sales. And the shortfall in customs duty can be attributed to reductions in importtariffs on a large number of import items, further compounded by slow growth of imports in FY94.The slow growth in income taxes was due to improvements in tax policy, notably reductions in taxrates, which have not been matched by adequate efforts to increase the tax base by improving taxcompliance. Non-tax revenues increased somewhat from 2.4 percent of GDP in FY93 to 2.7 percent inFY94 due to a 24 percent increase in collections in FY94.

41. Current expenditures. GOB continued to exercise effective control over current expenditurewhich rose by about 8 percent, marginally less than the nominal GDP growth rate, with theexpenditure/GDP ratio declining marginally in FY94. The improvement in the poverty orientation ofthe current budget in terms of social sector spending and targeted food distribution has been somewhatmixed in FY94 and so far in FY95 (Table 4). While the spending on education continues to rise in realterms over the years, its share in current expenditure has increased much less slowly since FY90 (17percent), with only a marginal increase in FY94, and, in addition, the FY95 budget allocation showssome decline.L" The share of spending in health and population control has also increased ratherslowly since FY90 (5.7 percent), rising marginally in FY94, but the FY95 budget allocation shows adecline.

!' For actual tax collections, source: The National Board of Revenue (NBR).

LI' Te share of the prinary education sub-sector did not increase in FY94, and the FY95 budget allocation shows a mnarginal decline.

- 13 -

Table 3: The Central Government Budget:Financing of the Deficit and Tax Revenue Sources

FY92 FY93 FY94

(As percent of GDP)

Overall budget deficit: -5.9 -5.9 -5.9Financing:

Net foreign financing 4.9 5.6 4.9Net domestic financing 1.0 0.3 1.0

Banking system 0.1 -1.1 -0.5Other domestic 0.9 1.4 1.5

Memorandum Items:Tax Revenues (Tk.Bill.) 79.5 91.2 95.3

(As percent of tax revenues)

Customs duties 34.6 31.6 31.3Income & profit taxes 16.2 17.7 17.8Value-added tax 22.9 39.3 41.9Excise duties 17.7 3.6 1.7Other taxes 8.6 7.9 7.3

Sources: Ministry of Finance and the Natioral Board of Revenue.

42. The major publicly-supported social safety nets available for meeting the food requirements ofthe vulnerable sections of the poor in Bangladesh are the targeted food distribution programs likevulnerable group development (VGD) and food-for-work (FFW). While the volume of grainsdistributed under FFW and VGD improved somewhat over the low FY93 level, it remainedconsiderably below the levels of the late eighties and early nineties. While distribution under FFW inFY95 is being restored to past levels, distribution under VGD continues to be low. This is partly linkedto the decline in food aid levels in recent years and its continued partial distribution under somemonetized channels, in addition to the limited size of the GOB-supported component which has not fullycompensated for the decline.22/

43. Budcgetary trends and prospects in FY95. The FY95 budgetary target for NBR-administered taxes is Tk 98.5 billion, reflecting a nominal increase of 9.6 percent over the FY94 level.NBR-administered tax collections during July, 1994-January, 1995 were 9 percent higher than thecorresponding FY94 level, implying that tax performance so far has been generally in line with thebudgetary target. Income tax collections during this period were 24 percent lower than thecorresponding FY94 level. This reduction is partly due to lower income tax collections from theBangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) because of increased import duties on petroleum which hasreduced BPC's profits. This is, however, being compensated by higher customs duties--following theadoption ad valorem rates--on petroleum imports. Collections of VAT during this period has been 11percent higher than the corresponding FY94 level, and customs duties have been 22 percent higher, bothlargely on account of a significant pick-up in dutiable imports. On the expenditure side, the GOB'srecent decision to grant a 10 percent interim increase in basic pay to Government employees will imposean additional budgetary burden in FY95, which may amount to about 2 percent of current

!2P Expansion of these social safety nets is one of the actions for attacking poverty under the Paris Understanding for FY95, and the progress inthis areas is discussed in the annex that follows the text.

- 14 -

expenditures.2! Next fiscal year, the resulting increase could amount to about 6 percent of currentexpenditures. Careful monitoring of expenditures will be necessary, with a view to avoiding anexpansionary fiscal program that would aggravate inflationary pressures.

Table 4: Social Sector and Targeted Spending in the Current Budget(Crore takas)

FY93 FY94 FY95

Actuals Share Actuals Share (%) Budget Share (%)(%) Allocation

Education 1640 (19.4) 1784 (19.6) 1876 (18. 9)Health & Population 551 (6.5) 624 (6.8) 665 (6.6)Social Welfare 48 (0.6) 54 (0.6) 54 (0.5)

Sub-Total 2239 (26.5) 2462 (27.0) 2595 (26.1)VGD, GR and TR 295 261 230Food-for-Work 332 415 379

Figures in parentheses indicate several share as percentage of total current expenditureSource: Ministry of Finance

44. FY95 Annual Development Program. ADP implementation during FY95 so far impliessome improvement over last year. The Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation Division's (IMED)estimate of ADP spending during July-December, 1994 is Tk 35.3 billion or 32 percent of the plannedannual ADP spending, and close to the target realization rate of 35 percent for the first half of the fiscalyear.-' This is 41 percent higher than the corresponding FY94 level of ADP spending which wasequivalent to only 26 percent of the annual target. There have been some improvements in themonitoring of ADP spending this year, but concrete actions are required in a number of areas, notablyprocurement processing and contract award for goods, works and consultancies.§!' Nevertheless,further improvements in the implementation of the ADP are needed.

Balance of Payments Developments in FY94 and FY95

45. Bangladesh's balance of payments position continues to be comfortable. The current accountdeficit narrowed further in FY94 to $420 million (or 1.6 percent of GDP), compared to $676 million(or 2.6 percent of GDP) in FY93 (Table 1). The balance of payments generated an overall surplus of$673 million, which led to a further build-up in foreign exchange reserves to $2.8 billion, equivalent to8 months of total imports, or 1 1 months of non-aided imports (Table 5). The low current accountdeficit in FY94 was largely due to stagnant imports, partly reflecting sluggish investment activity, ratherthan buoyant export performance, and was also aided by some growth in workers' remittances. Aiddisbursements declined primarily because of a fall in project aid disbursements, which in turn are linkedto project implementation issues and the pronounced bunching of ADP spending in late FY94; (anotherfactor is the low aid commitments of FY93 --Appendix Table 3.9).

46. Export statistics compiled by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), which is based on exportshipments, suggest a slowdown in export growth in FY94 to about 6 percent in nominal terms,

Ž' The decision is to grant a 5 percent increase in basic pay and related allowances (such as housing and festival allowances) from January 1995and the remaining 5 percent from July, 1995.

24/ Total ADP, including the SOE spending that is not included in the central government budget, amounts to Tk 110 billion for FY95.

2' Actions in these areas are also included in the Paris Understanding for FY95, and the developments are assessed in the annex.

- 15 -

compared to 16 percent per annum during FY90-93 (see Appendix Table 3.3); this implies only a 1.4percent growth in export volume. This slowdown is attributed primarily to a sharp decline in thegrowth of ready made garments (RMG) exports which have accounted for over half the gross exportearnings in recent years. EPB's estimates show only a 4 percent growth of RMG exports (in dollarterms) in FY94, down from 27 percent per annum during FY90-93."' There are a variety ofexplanations given by observers for this slowdown: cancellations of some contracts by the exportersthemselves due to profit squeeze from the sharp increases in the prices of key inputs (cotton yarn andfabrics) while output prices showed even downward pressures with intensifying internationalcompetition; difficulties of obtaining imported inputs in a timely manner due to a tightening of inputmarkets; possible diversion of imported inputs to the highly protected domestic market (i.e., leakagefrom the bonded warehouses) induced by increased rates of return and slowdown in exports with fallingprofit margins; diversion of demand to other supplying countries due to rising production disruptionscaused by power outages and hartals (general strikes) in Bangladesh.2 '

Table 5: Balance of Payments (FY90-94)(US$ billion)

FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94

Merchandise Exports 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.5Merchandise Imports 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.2Remittances 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1Current Account Balance -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4Gross Aid Disbursements 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6Overall Balance -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7Gross Reserves 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.8(in months of imports) (1.9) (3.3) (5.7) (6.5) (8.1)

Sources: Bangladesh Bank, Export Promotion Bureau and Economic Relations Division

47. Exports of traditional items like raw jute, jute goods and tea continued to stagnate in FY94,reflecting weak export demand (see Appendix Table 3.3). Exports of leather and frozen food on theother hand performed relatively well, with the growth coming from an expansion in export volumerather than increase in prices.

48. Merchandise imports through official channels in FY94 amounted to $ 4.2 billion, virtuallyunchanged from the FY93 level in nominal terms, and implying only 1 percent real increase involume.L' This has been partly due to lower food imports and lower petroleum prices, as well as anappreciable decline in the import of milk food, linked largely to increased domestic production, and ofedible oil. In addition, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods did not respond fully to theimport liberalization and tariff reduction measures, largely reflecting the moderate level of economicactivities. The anticipation of lower import duties in FY95 also contributed to a deferral of imports toFY95. Yarn imports increased significantly by 34 percent, while that of fabrics rose by 14 percent,suggesting some pick-up in the RMG subsector activity.

w The FY94 RMG export level is likely to have been underestimated, as suggested by the upward revision of EPB's initial estimates for the firstquarter of FY95.

2I' RMG export data compiled by the Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers Exporters Association (BGMEA) suggest a 10 percent growth in thevolume of RMG exports in FY94, implying that in volume terms RMG exports showed a reasonably strong growth. The BGMEA estimates arealso FOB values but are based on data compiled by agencies in the importing countries.

2!' There are also large volumes of unrecorded imports (and some exports).

- 16 -

49. Workers' remittances reached $1,089 million, 15 percent higher than the FY93 level. Thisgrowth reflects a steady increase in the number of Bangladeshis working abroad, and also an increasingshare of remittances being channeled officially, the latter being linked to the liberalization of theexchange control regime.

50. Total aid disbursements declined by 2 percent in FY94 (see Table 6 and Appendix Table3.9). While project aid disbursements declined by 10 percent from the FY93 level, the disbursementsrate, relative to a lower opening pipeline, improved in FY94. The pipeline had fallen significantly atthe beginning of FY94 because of a sharp decline in project aid commitments in FY93, but it recoveredby end-FY94 because of a considerable pick-up in project aid commitments during FY94. Commodityaid disbursements also increased from their low FY93 level, partly reflecting quick disbursements onaccount of retroactive financing under some multilateral aid programs for sizeable imports. Food aidcontinued to be at a low level, with the volume of aid-financed foodgrain imports declining further by11 percent in FY94. This essentially reflects reduced dependence on imports because of progresstowards foodgrain self-sufficiency.

51. Balance of payments trends in FY95. EPB's estimates of exports during the first fivemonths of FY95 suggest a 34 percent increase compared to the corresponding FY94 level, and RMGexports--including knitwear--for the same period are 33 percent larger than the last year's correspondinglevel.L' On the import side, the BB's provisional estimate suggests an import growth of 26 percent inthe first half of FY95 over the same period in FY94, with strong increase in donor-financed imports.Most of the latter increase is attributable to the strong pick-up in imports of machinery, industrial rawmaterials and intermediates, and crude petroleum. These developments imply an acceleration inindustrial activity and sustained strong performance in RMG and other manufacturing exports.

52. At the same time, gross foreign exchange reserves increased by $0.4 billion to $3.2 billionbetween end-June and end-December 1994, with aid inflows of over $0.6 billion through November anda 12 percent increase in remittances in the first half of FY95 over the corresponding period in FY94.

53. The continuous build up in reserves will put pressure on the exchange rate, undermining thecompetitiveness of exports. This is a development that requires close monitoring, particularly given thatthe current upward pressure on the general price level--which is building up with the rising rice pricesand now also with the salary increases for government employees--is likely to be intensified as some ofthe increasing proceeds of monetized foreign exchange inflows (e.g., remittances) are spent on non-tradables.

Moneg. Credit and Prices

54. The growth in overall credit slowed from 8 percent in FY93 to 4 percent in FY94(Appendix Table 6.1). This was largely due to a decline in public sector credit, despite the rise in ADPspending, because the GOB relied considerably on non-bank sources of financing, i.e., the issuance ofhigh interest national savings bonds. Credit to the private sector continued to be sluggish, particularlyduring the first three quarters of FY94. Credit policy was liberalized somewhat in response to thistrend, including some reductions in lending rates for the three selected activities that are still subject tointerest rate bands--agriculture, exports, small and cottage industry--which led to sizeable creditdisbursements in the last quarter. Outstanding private credit during the year rose modestly by 8.5percent, reflecting cautious borrowing decisions by potential investors and also a conservative lendingstance by the banks. The latter had substantial excess reserves--amounting to 7 percent of deposits--at

r These are EPB's revised estimates of exports based on an improved data compilation system for RMG exports.

- 17 -

end-FY94, reflecting to some degree the problems of the banking sector and of financial intermediation.In FY95, by end-December 1994, private sector credit showed an increase of 13 percent on year-on-year basis, also reflecting a pick-up in business activity.

Table 6: Aid Disbursements(US$ million)

FY92 FY93 FY94

Project Aid 1064 1094 990Commodity Aid 386 372 451Food Aid 241 121 118

TOTAL 1691 1587 1559

Project AidOpening Pipeline 4847 5260 4513Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.0 20.8 21.9

Source: Economic Relations Division and staff estimates.

55. At 1.8 percent in FY94, the rate of inflation--based on the consumption basket of the Dhakamiddle class--remained low for the second consecutive year (Appendix Table 9.1). This was largely dueto continued stable food prices, which are estimated to have increased by only 0.4 percent, while pricesof non-food items rose by 3.7 percent. In FY95, the general price level has been rising faster becauseof a sizeable increase in rice prices so far, with the 12-month running average through December 1994showing a 3.6 percent increase. These price trends are linked to the drought-affected shortfall in amancrop, which has already led to a sharp increase in foodgrain prices, and could lead to further increasesin the general price level during the remainder of the fiscal year. Indeed, as pointed out above, thereare additional upward demand pressures in the economy. This suggests that careful macroeconomicmanagement will remain essential.

D. POVERTY TRENDS AND ACTIONS TO ALLEVIATEPOVERTY

56. To comprehend the dimensions of the challenge of poverty reduction facing Bangladesh, it isimportant to review some of the poverty and social sector indicators and their changes through time.This will also highlight why achieving faster growth is so crucial. Below, a summary overview ofpoverty incidence, population growth pressures, and trends in health, nutrition, and education indicatorsis presented, together with a look at some of the actions aimed at improving these social indicators.

57. Poverty Incidence. Results of the Household Expenditure Surveys (HES)--for the six yearsconducted, including the latest one for 1991/92--with respect to the incidence of poverty are given inAppendix Table 1.9. However, intertemporal comparisons of these results are made difficult, becauseof the use of different methodologies by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in estimating povertyin different years and the change in the survey method introduced in 1983/84. The latest HES showsthat in 1991/92 close to half of the population was below the poverty line, which is measured by BBSfor 1991/92 in terms of direct calorie intake, a change from previous years.

- 18 -

58. Using a different methodology than that used by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, aninterim analysis of the preliminary 1991/92 data suggests that poverty incidence did not decline between1988/89 and 1991/92, so that poverty still remained high in both rural and urban areas at the start of the1990s2.3' The rural areas fared worse in this respect as compared to urban areas. The povertyindicators also show a greater incidence of poverty in rural than urban areas. It appears that theabsolute number of the poor have increased in both the rural and urban areas.3L'

59. The high percentage of hard core poverty is also reflected in the nutritional and health statusof the population. In 1992, moderate to severe malnutrition was present in 68.3 percent of childrenunder 6 years of age. This figure was only slightly lower than in 1985-86 (71.5 percent) and higherthan in 1989-90 (66.5 percent). This is among the highest levels of malnutrition in the region. Nepal(51 percent), Sri Lanka (42 percent) and Indonesia (38 percent) have a much lower problem ofmalnutrition.

60. Apart from Government data, of the most notable dealing with rural poverty has been theAnalysis of Poverty Trends project carried out by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies(BIDS) since 1989.LŽ The BIDS studies are based on household panel data collected from arepresentative sample of villages. The most recent study suggests that the incidence of rural povertybetween 1990 and 1993 has declined slightly, though much of the gains appear to have been made by1992, followed again by a stagnation of poverty in 1993.33' This study broadly suggests, though itdoes not test this proposition, that this very modest improvement in the poverty situation may be due tothe pick-up in economic growth following a slide in the early 1990s on the one hand, and, on the other,the absence of major natural disasters and the positive impact on rural household nutrition of the sharpdecline in the price of rice during 1992/93.34' There are also poverty studies that are underpreparation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is working with the GOB on preparing a TA projectfor studying urban poverty in Bangladesh, and preparations have already started for an IDA study onrural poverty.

61. Population, health and nutrition trends, and the education sector. Population growthremains a paramount problem for Bangladesh. Efforts to address it have met with some success but toachieve zero population growth, continued improvements in the level and quality of family planning,basic health, and education services will be essential.

62. Bangladesh has a population of about 120 million, with over 800 persons per sq. km., makingit the most densely populated non-city state in the world. Population has doubled since the mid-1960s,and at the present growth rate of about 2 percent has a doubling time of 35 years.

& See: Martin Ravallion and Binayak Sen, "When Method Matters: Toward a Resolution of the Debate about Bangladesh's Poverty Measures,'Policy Research Working Paper 1359, World Bank, September 1994. The methodological analysis using a poverty line based on the cost of a bundleof basic-needs goods suggests that the percentage of the population below the poverty line was 52.9 percent in rural areas and 33.6 percent in theurban areas in 1991-92, giving a national poverty incidence just under 50 percent.

Li' More recent information on poverty incidence in the early 1990s is not available from Government data. A new Household Expenditure Surveywill be fielded during 1995, and its results are expected to be available more quickly because of improvements in the data collection and processingprocedures.

i! Hossain Zillur Rahman, Rethinking Rural Poverty, University Press Limited, Dhaka; and "Rural Poverty Update 1990-92", Analysis of PovertyTrends Project BIDS, 1993.

' Hossain Zillur Rahman, "Rural Poverty Update, 1992-93," Analysis of Poverty Trends Project, BIDS, April 1994.

LI Hossain Zillur Rahman, 'Low Price of Rice: Who Loses, Who Gains?" Analysis of Poverty Trends Project, BIDS, February 1994.

- 19 -

63. However, with the implementation of successful family planning (FP) services, fertility hassharply declined since the mid 1970's from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 7 children per woman to about4, with a continuing increase in contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). But a TFR of 2.2 would need tobe reached in only 11 years time if GOB's goal of replacement fertility by the year 2005 is to bereached.35' Sustained increases are needed in CPR to raise it from 45 percent in FY94 to the 70-75percent range required to achieve the GOB goal.

64. According to the latest Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 1993/94, 24 percent ofmarried women have an unmet need for FP services; particularly younger couples remain under-served.h' Quality improvement efforts remain weak and available clinical services are underutilized.Significant improvement in continuation rates for spacing methods is needed. Making the method mixmore effective, creating coordination between health and FP departments including joint delivery ofimmunization programs and FP services, involving the community in the delivery of services, andincreasing utilization of private sector capacities will contribute to program effectiveness.

65. GOB's strategy is to expand and improve the quality of FP services. It has, during FY95,prepared a National Action Plan aimed at addressing program weaknesses and improving performance.It has taken the first steps towards utilizing the private sector for transporting contraceptives, designingand executing IEC activities, and increasing service outlets. It also involved NGOs in policy andprogram decision making. Overall, the program has aimed at reaching the poorest sections of society.

66. The health status of the population is poor. Life expectancy at birth is 57 years for both menand women. Infant and under-5 mortality rates are still high but are declining. The 1993/94 DHSestimates the IMR to be 88 per 1000 live births and the child mortality rate 132 per 1000 live births, adecline from over 100 and 160, respectively, per 1000 live births in the mid 1980s.

67. The major causes of morbidity and mortality are malnutrition, infectious diseases, especiallydiarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and complications of pregnancy andchildbirth. In addition to protein energy malnutrition (PEM), micronutrient deficiencies are majorcontributors to poor health. Vitamin A deficiency (leads to blindness), iodine deficiency disorders andiron deficiency anemia are widespread.

68. GOB is implementing several projects to improve the above situation and reach especially themost poor. The most successful intervention is the immunization program. In 1993, 84 percent of 2year-old children were fully immunized and 80 percent of young infants' mothers had received at least 2doses of tetanus toxoid. Other projects are aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality from diarrhealdiseases, acute respiratory infections, and tuberculosis. Although not as impressive as the expandedprogram of immunization (EPI) program, these interventions are beginning to make an impact. Thereduction of IMR and under-5 mortality rates seen since the late 1980s is probably due to the combinedeffect of all these activities.

69. While interventions aimed at reducing micronutrient deficiencies are in operation and a varietyof projects to ensure food security were conducted in the past, a comprehensive nutrition program totackle the serious nutritional situation of the population was not initiated by the GOB until very recently.A project has now been developed to focus on the most vulnerable groups, children under 2 years ofage and pregnant and lactating women. To be funded by the GOB and IDA and supported by UNICEF

L' Desired family size in Bangladesh is about 3 children. It should be less than 2 in order to reach the two child family norn.

!V Only 25 percent of married women aged 15-19 and 36 percent of those aged 20-24 are current users of FP services, against 59 percent of those

aged 35-39.

- 20 -

technical assistance, the Bangladesh Integrated Nutrition Project (BINP) will be negotiated in the firsthalf of 1995.

70. Very little has been done to provide maternity care services, and maternal mortality remainsvery high. A network of public health care facilities has been established throughout the country but thequality of services is poor and utilization low. Two recent surveys found that government run facilitiesare utilized by less than 10 percent of sick people. Hospital statistics show that bed occupancy rates inrural areas is about 60 percent. Over the last two decades, the GOB's goal has been to increase thenumber of health facilities and health workers but less attention has been paid to the quality of servicesprovided.

71. GOB is implementing several projects which seek to increase utilization of rural hospitalservices and improve maternal and neonatal health care. Among these are several training activities,development of a human resource plan, the health economics project (HEP) and the Reorganizationstudy. The HEP will help develop a Health Economics unit in the MOHFW that will provide economicanalysis of health programs and interventions. The Reorganization study will propose a restructuring ofthe Ministry of Health and Family Planning programs that should rationalize the use of availableresources. However, there is a need to develop a Health Policy and a process of strategic planning,management and policy development. The upgrading of management and clinical skills is needed toimprove the quality of care.

72. Increasing the coverage and quality of education, particularly female education, is critical todeal successfully with the population growth problem and poverty issues. The Government has alsobeen trying to increase the budgetary resources allocated to the education sector, particularly primaryeducation, with some success. The share of government expenditure on education in total centralgovernment budget increased from 10.3 percent in FY91 to 13.4 percent in FY94, and over the sameperiod, the share of the primary education in the total education expenditures increased from about 49percent to 53 percent. In recent years, significant progress has also been made in school enrollments,especially girls' enrollment at both primary and secondary education levels, due to the implementationof compulsory primary education and stipends for female secondary school students. Total primaryschool enrollment has increased from 11.9 million in 1990 (45 percent female) to 18.3 million in 1993(47 percent female), and the gross enrollment ratio has increased from 78 percent in 1978 in 1990 to116 percent in 1993.2' Total secondary school enrollment has increased from 3 million in 1990 (33percent female) to 5.2 million in 1993 (41 percent female).38'

73. However, efforts to improve the quality of education need to be strengthened to improve theunsatisfactory student completion and achievement rates and low teacher-student ratios. Currently, ofthe cohort entering Grade 1, only 43 percent complete the primary school cycle and 40 percent drop outby Grade 3. Furthermore, tests administered on students who completed the primary school indicatethat only 42 percent achieved basic literacy competencies. As regards the teacher-student ratio, this wasnationally at 1:66 in two shifts and 1:33 in one shift in 1993.

74. The road to a substantial reduction of poverty in Bangladesh is still long. However, it is alsoclear that faster economic growth is necessary to enhance the economy's capacity to tackle Bangladesh'ssevere poverty problems.

/l' These figures include students enrolled in all governuent and non-government schools. Net enrollment ratios are not known.

SF The 1990 figures exclude girls attending madrasahs while the 1993 figures include them.

- 21 -

E. NEAR AND MEDIUM-TERM PRIORITY REFORM AGENDA FORFASTER GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION

75. The remarkable macroeconomic stability that has been sustained so far and the comfortableforeign exchange reserve cushion continue to provide opportunity to resume the stalled structural reformprocess and attack poverty. GOB's convincing re-commitment to the unfinished reform program isessential to remove the perception of uncertainty in the business environment and stimulate bothdomestic and foreign private investment to levels that would support a sustained increase in economicgrowth. While the 4.7 percent average GDP growth achieved in the last five years is a strong growthrate, particularly with an investment activity that has been hovering around 12-14 percent of GDP, it issignificantly below the range--above 6 percent--where the economy could reach a capacity to effectivelytackle Bangladesh's extreme poverty problem. A continuing effort is also needed to improve publicadministration. Poverty oriented social sector programs do require further strengthening to ensureneeded improvements in the quality of social sector services

76. The above reform agenda reflects the Paris Understanding for FY95: (i) attacking poverty; (ii)improving public administration; and (iii) energizing the private sector. Since the Aid Group Meeting(AGM) of April 1994, the GOB's reform efforts have varied in intensity and coverage, with mixedresults toward achieving the reform goals in each of these three areas. Taking these developments intoaccount, a near- and medium-term priority reform agenda for faster growth and poverty alleviation ispresented below.

Establishing a Facilitating Business Environment and Resuming Policy Reforms:Energizing the Private Sector

77. Need for political stability. Since early 1994 increasing political uncertainity has createdeconomic uncertainty regarding the future course of reform actions and is adversely affectingBangladesh's image as a potential host country for foreign direct investment. The uncertainty relatesmore to the pace, timing, and the magnitude of further policy reform actions (e.g., in the trade andfiscal policy areas), rather than the possibility of policy reversals. It is widely believed that whateverthe outcome of present political difficulties, the move towards markets and the private sector will not beabandoned. However, the current political environment is hindering Bangladesh in reaping the fullbenefits of the important reforms achieved so far. The country urgently needs to re-establish aconsensus on national political processes to avoid costly disruptions in economic activity and to resumethe unfinished reform agenda.

78. Establishing a facilitatine business enviromnent. To realize the efficiency gains expectedfrom deregulation of markets and opening up of the economy, and exploit export opportunities in areaswhere Bangladesh has a comparative advantage, firms must be able to adjust their output andemployment levels, move their resources into relatively more profitable areas or exit from activities thatappear no longer profitable. To facilitate such adjustments and reduce the cost of doing business, theGovernment must start removing infrastructure bottlenecks, improve efficiency and flexibility of laborand financial markets, establish an effective commercial legal and judicial system to facilitate easyentry/exit, enforce contracts and protect property rights.

79. In infrastructure, efficient and expanding power, telecommunications, and transportationservices are important in creating cost competitive and growing industries. For an economy that needsto grow at above 6 percent, Bangladesh's existing infrastructure capacity must not only be used far moreeffectively through sustained improvements in operational efficiency, timely maintenance and

- 22 -

rehabilitation, but substantial capacity increases would also be needed particularly in the electricity andtelecommunications sectors. The legal/regulatory and institutional framework should be developed andput into effect in order to pave the way for private investment, which is now allowed in power,telecommunications, and gas sectors. Appropriately taken Government initiatives in allowing privateinvestment in ports--particularly in container handling operations--could pave the way for reducing portconstraints in export activities. Accelerating improvements in rural infrastructure is especiallyimportant for facilitating further intensification and diversification of farm production and for expansionof off-farm activities, thus enhancing the capacity of agriculture to contribute more to economic growthand poverty alleviation.

80. Flexible labor markets are important for the success of Bangladesh's overall developmenteffort and growth strategy based on labor-intensive manufacturing exports. Labor is Bangladesh's mostabundant resource, providing a comparative advantage in labor-intensive products. Full utilization ofthis comparative advantage for the economy and for achieving poverty reduction objectives, labormarkets must efficiently allocate labor in a changing market environment, link real wages toproductivity and send appropriate signals about skill needs, facilitate needed employment adjustments byfirms in response to changing market signals, allow for balanced and freely held collective bargaining,within a legal framework that also establishes a proper balance between flexibility ofemployment/retrenchment decisions and job security.

81. To these ends, the Government should take steps to institute a market-based collectivebargaining process that is free from government interference, and a system of severance liabilities andpayroll taxes that are in line with the market conditions and developing country norms. Accordingly,the Government itself should adjust its current practice of paying high separation payments and bringthese gradually down to legally mandated amounts. The current public sector norms for separationpayments are high for private firms that need to restructure to remain competitive. However, safety netprograms should be maintained for displaced workers--e.g., as in the case of the jute sector where theretrenched workers are helped through retraining programs for self-employment or re-employment. De-politicization of industrial relations will benefit both the workers, businesses, and the economy directlyby shifting the collective bargaining process to the negotiation table and eliminating the very costlyeconomy-wide agitations, with also positive impact on Bangladesh's investment climate and externalimage.3'

82. Efforts are also needed to improve the poor position of women in the labor market, whereonly 5 percent of women workers are engaged in the formal sector, over 80 percent of women workersare unpaid family helpers, only 6 percent of government jobs are occupied by women and only 2percent of SOE employees are women. Any discriminatory bias that may exist in hiring womenemployees in the public sector should be addressed. This would complement the Government's currentemphasis on investing in education of girls through the secondary cycle and would set an example forother employers.

83. In the financial sector, the Government should undertake further reform actions to establish afinancially sound, efficient and competitive sector. As a priority for the very near-term, the BangladeshBank (BB) must embark on a program of bank restructuring to improve the financial health of thebanking sector, preparing restructuring plans for all banks. These restructuring efforts would require atrilateral approach, involving the Government, the BB and banks. Also, efforts aimed at closing

LW For a comprehensive assessment of Bangladesh's labor market issues and recommendations for reform measures,see: The World Bank,Bangladesh - From Stabilization to Growth, op.cit., pp. 148-161; and, The World Bank, Banaladesh: Labor Market Policies for Hi2her Employment,(Green Cover will soon be issued).

- 23 -

unprofitable rural branches of NCBs should continue. In the policy area, the lending rate bands forspecial activities and the deposit rate floors should be removed. Beyond this policy move, the emphasisshould be on institutional reforms and strengthening as these have lagged well behind policy reforms.The recent improvements in the supervision function of BB itself need to be strengthened further withparticular emphasis on enforcement. Vigorous enforcement, if it is to become a reality, would requirefull political backing for the central bank. In addition, the central bank also needs to continueimproving the conduct of monetary policy by using indirect instruments instead of relying on directcontrols. (An assessment of the recent partial progress made in the implementation of specific measuresaimed at achieving the latter objectives is given in the Annex below, where a matrix presents anoverview of progress under the Paris Understanding for FY95).

84. In the area of loan recovery, pending actions should be taken to remove legal obstacles to debtcollection by amending the Financial Loan Courts Act (1990), to empower the courts execute theirjudgements, and strengthen these courts with additional judges, magistrates and police officers toenforce decrees for faster collection of defaulting loans.

85. The banking sector also needs to have more effective competition. The dominant role of theNCBs needs to be substantially reduced. This can be accomplished by privatization of NCBs and/orallowing the share of private banks to increase more rapidly, including the licensing of new banks. TheGovernment is considering both options and has in fact approved the issuance licenses to sevenapplicants. The Bangladesh Bank has already issued one license and two more are expected to be issuedsoon. As regards the privatization of NCBs, the Government's commitment to privatize the RupaliBank--one of the four NCBs identified for privatization about two years ago--should be implemented assoon as practicable. For the other NCBs, preparations for privatization should also be initiated. Untiltheir privatization, a serious effort should be made to improve their operational efficiency. This wouldrequire fundamental changes in the incentive system governing the management and staff'scompensation.

86. Beyond the dominant banking sector of the financial system, the Government should helpdevelop a money market (with emphasis, initially, on the development of an active interbank market)and the capital market. The Government also needs to deal decisively with the DFI (developmentfinance institution) subsector. The earlier decision to privatize BSRS (Bangladesh Shilpa Rin Sangstha)should be implemented and the other much larger institution, BSB (Bangladesh Shilpa Bank), should bedrastically restructured, if its immediate closure is not considered feasible. The third, ICB (InvestmentCorporation of Bangladesh), should be privatized given the field of its operations, i.e., the capitalmarket.

87. The Government has initiated some steps to reform the legal framework for markets and thejudicial system, but the process is incomplete in many instances and progress has been very slow inother cases. The already prepared drafts of the Bankruptcy Bill and amendments to Financial CourtsAct and the Foreign Investment Protection and Promotion Act should proceed through the neededreviews without unnecessary delays and be submitted for Parliament's approval. The recent passing byParliament of the Companies Bill (1994) and the amendment to the Negotiable Instruments Act of 1881should be followed by the modernization of other commercial legislation. Firm actions are also neededto improve the efficiency of judicial administration and legal procedures, which suffer from very highcase overload due to a lack of resources, insufficient number of well trained judges, and an absence of

- 24 -

effective arbitration process.12'

88. Trade policy reforms. From an economic efficiency viewpoint, the key objective of a tariffrationalization effort must be to move towards uniformity in nominal rates and, thereby, in effectiveprotection rates (EPRs), while also trying to lower the average rate. This will bring the incentiveregime closer to neutrality, also reducing the anti-export bias of the trade regime as the average tariffrate is reduced. And the residual anti-export bias, of course, needs to be compensated for through abroadly applicable and well functioning mechanism that provides for duty/tax-free access to inputs usedin exports. In the trade policy area, therefore, the Government should continue with the reforms towardthe already announced medium-term goal, to be achieved within two years, of lowering the averagelevel and dispersion of import tariffs, such that effective protection rates are comparable with thoseprevailing in internationally competitive developing countries. To remove policy uncertainty, theGovernment should also announce in advance the planned tariff changes for FY96 and FY97.

89. With respect to the import regime, near-term steps should include:

* Lowering of higher tariffs further, accompanied by the removal of the import license fee,as well of the user- and commodity-specific tariff exemptions and exonerations. Over thenext two years, a substantial reduction in the dispersion of tariffs could be achieved byreducing the high tariffs, which would also lead to a reduction in the average tariff ratebelow the current 30 percent. (Improvements in the revenue performance of direct taxesand the VAT, increases in the import duty collections due to the expansion of imports thatwould result from faster growth and diversion of at least some of the illegal trade to legalchannels would relieve the revenue pressures).

3 All the remaining trade-related QRs should be eliminated. This, together with the loweringof high tariffs, would especially affect textile items, exposing them to effective externalcompetition through official channels, which they now face from illegal imports.Continued protection of inefficient, economically unviable textile units side-by-side withefficient and competitive ones would retard this sector's development in general and healthylinkages with the RMG subsector in particular. Lowering of protection for the formershould be seen as the most effective way of promoting this sector. Ironically, this ishappening through undesirable route of illegal imports, which is also depriving theGovernment of tariff revenues.

* Customs clearances should be speeded up through the effective implementation of off-shorepre-shipment inspection (PSI) and phasing out of the tariff values as base for the assessmentof tariff liabilities.

Possible short-term labor displacement associated with this continuing import liberalization programshould be addressed through safety net programs for helping retrenched workers, with donor support ifnecessary. VAT should be extended to textiles, although the Government finds this difficult in presentcircumstances.

e' In 1990, there were 697 subordinate judges against 359,652 pending cases and 30 judges in the High Court as against 22,817 pending cases.And while the budget for the administration of justice rose to Tk 0.5 billion in FY93, it is a meager amount compared to the size of population andthe volume of cases. Although altemative dispute resolution mechanisms are available outside the judicial system, they are not widely used dueto problems of enforcement.

- 25 -

90. As regards the export regime:

* The few remaining export taxes and bans/restrictions on exports of agricultural andmanufactured goods (see paragraph 20) should be phased out without much delay, sincethese are discouraging the development of the corresponding activities. The objective of"protecting" consumers can be achieved more efficiently through competition instead ofexport bans.

* The efficiency of the duty drawback system needs to be enhanced through increasedapplication of "flat" drawback rates and improvements in the functioning of DutyExemption and Drawback Office (DEDO).

91. In the area of exchange regime, the limits on the retention of export proceeds by exportersshould also be phased out; they are inconsistent with the policy of current account convertibility.

92. In managing the exchange rate, the Government needs to take into account also the pace anddepth of trade liberalization in order to maintain competitive real exchange rates. Trade liberalizationwill, ceteris paribus, shift the underlying demand and supply functions in the domestic foreign exchangemarket. This means that the "equilibrium" real exchange rate will also change.

93. Industrial policy: privatization of state-owned enternrises (SOEs). A more aggressiveimplementation of the privatization program is important not only to achieve the immediate intendedobjectives of eliminating the burden of inefficient SOEs on the economy and enhancing efficiency, butalso to maintain the credibility of the Government's comrnitment to market-based reforms and privatesector development. Also, a good progress in reforming the NCBs crucially depends on the successfulhandling of the SOE sector problems. Accordingly: (i) the Government should speed up itsimplementation, including the allocation of adequate funds for meeting separation benefits; (ii) the PB'sinstitutional capacity must be strengthened quickly, using international and local expertise in technical,financial, and legal areas to carry out proper valuation of assets and market responsiveness, and preparesales prospectuses and tender documents; on this basis, the PB should expedite the privatization ofenterprises identified for its FY95 and FY96 program; and (iii) the privatization program should beexpanded beyond its current modest coverage and include other SOEs.

94. Successful progress in the implementation of privatization could also elevate support forexpanding the program not only to all of the SOEs producing tradables, but also utilities which are nowmostly open to the private sector. International experience-e.g., in Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela--has indicated that it is much easier to mobilize popular support for privatization of SOEs (and/or otherforms of major private sector presence) in, for example, telecommunications and power sectors, due togrowing dissatisfaction with the performance of SOEs in these sectors. However, as pointed out earlier,to attract private investment and promote maximum competition in these sectors, the Governrnent shouldfirst establish the sectoral legal/regulatory frameworks, making the business environment and policiestransparent.

95. Enhancing agiicultural Rroductivitv. The agriculture sector currently accounts for 35percent of GDP and is the most important source of employment and food. Given that well over 80percent of the population and the civilian labor force live in the rural areas, a robust agricultural sectorwill be crucial for its continued and enhanced contribution to economic growth, employment, andpoverty alleviation. Growth of agricultural GDP averaged 3 percent in FY81-90 and about 2 percentduring the last four years. Despite the extreme scarcity of crop land, however, achieving an agriculturalgrowth rate of close to 3 percent in the medium-term should be possible. To this end, the challenges

- 26 -

for agricultural policy strategy are to: (i) improve research and extension services to bring newtechnology and diffuse technology so as to bolster factor productivity growth and production of highervalue products, including vegetables and horticultural crops, fish and shrimp, and silk production; (ii)remove the remaining policy distortions (e.g., those observed in the fertilizer market, interest rate cap,recurrent loan write-offs), implement policies already in place, and avoid/resist any policy reversal; (iii)promote private sector initiatives in off-farm activities--e.g., in processing, marketing, and transport;(iv) accelerate improvements in rural infrastructure and in the efficiency and productivity of other publicexpenditures in agriculture and natural resources to promote further diversification and intensification offarm output and non-farm activities; and (v) maintain a good balance in public expenditures for newinvestments and operations and maintenance.

96. It should also be stressed that the implementation of the pending policy and institutionalreforms discussed in this section would complement the broadly appropriate agricultural policies andneeded additional actions referred to above in bolstering agricultural growth.

Improving Public Resource Management and Adminiistration

97. Public resource manaeement. Sustaining macroeconomic stability should be the primaryconcern of the Government in the fiscal area, with particular emphasis on improving the quality ofpublic expenditures and further enhancing the revenue performance. Maintaining prudent fiscal policiesis crucial to accelerate reforms and improve the investment climate for domestic and foreign privateinvestment. GOB should also take into account the cost of recapitalizing NCBs in its budgetarymanagement.

98. The Government has achieved considerable policy improvements in the revenue as well as theexpenditure side of its budget. On the revenue side, the process of broadening the coverage of the VATand direct taxes must continue through the elimination of exemptions. Stronger commitment is alsoneeded for strengthening the tax administration in order to improve tax compliance and enforcement.

99. Regarding public expenditures, apart from avoiding non-priority expansionary programs,continued emphasis should be placed on the prioritization and implementation of public expenditures toenhance their quality and thus their development impact. Public sector investment should take place inhuman resource development and infrastructure, not in activities where private investment could takeplace. This would ensure that economic growth indeed brings visible benefits to the poor and a strongcomplementarity is achieved between public and private investment to bolster growth prospects and theprivate sector development.

100. With respect to the Annual Development Program (ADP), notwithstanding the significantimprovement in the FY94 realization rate and shift toward social sectors, the ADP implementation stillappears to have been suffering from the heavy bunching of spending towards the end of the fiscal year,as this was more pronounced in FY94. While the improving implementation performance of ADP inthe first half of FY95 also reflects a more determined government resolve in this area, for sustainedimprovements in the implementation and efficiency of ADP as well as in related aid utilization,measures initiated in a number of areas need to be followed up seriously: (i) procurement ofgoods/works/services will continue to be a critical area, where an action plan should be implemented toensure effective application of GOB's revised guidelines, including compliance with stipulated timelimits; (ii) monitoring/enforcement and follow-up mechanisms will need to be strengthened andreinforced by institutionalizing accountability for project implementation performance.

- 27 -

101. Public Sector Manaeement and Administrative reforms. A significant governancechallenge is facing the GOB in the public sector management and administration area. This is toaccelerate efforts aimed at improving the efficiency of the public sector entities in the provision ofservices, in resource mobilization, regulatory oversight, implementation of new policies, and infacilitating a well-functioning and efficiency-enhancing business environment. The importance of astrengthened tax administration in achieving sustained improvements in the budget tax revenueperformance was already mentioned above. An important step towards good governance in the publicsector would be to move forward with the local government reform, which is crucial for efficientdecentralization and implementation of social sector and infrastructure programs. In an effort to reducebureaucratic delays, NBR has recently transferred the responsibility for issuance of Utilization Permits(UP), for import of RMG raw materials to the Read-made Garment Exporters Association.

102. In some public sector agencies, such as Bangladesh Agricultural development Corporation(BADC), Food Directorate, and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), staff rationalization isfacing funding constraints, requiring the support of the Government. Reform progress in the BWDBappears on schedule, though considerable time will be required to bring about qualitative changes in theoverall work environment.

103. In the power sector, despite the recent improvements, system losses (35 percent), lowcollections (85 percent of billings) and ratio of cash collections to generation valued at the average tariff(56 percent) continue to be the major problem for the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)and Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA). Stronger political commitment will be required toaddress the institutional and management issues for reducing system loss to an acceptable level.Meanwhile, in the transportation sector, reform progress has been satisfactory in Bangladesh Railways(BR) in the separation of (11,000) excess manpower, in formulating an institutional reform program andin contracting out ticketing operations to the private sector. But the BR reform program needs to bereviewed and an action plan put into effect. As regards the Bangladesh Inland Water TransportationAuthority (BIWTA) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transportation Corporation (BIWTC), there has beensome progress in improving their operational efficiency since January 1994, but the implementation ofvarious reform action plans must be speeded up.

104. The key Government implementationlsupport institutions such as the Customs Department,National Board of Revenue (NBR), and Duty Exemption and Drawback Office (DEDO) continue to besources of unnecessary delays in their day-to-day dealings with the private sector, thereby unnecessarilyincreasing costs for the business. They have shown slower progress in implementing new policies andin adopting to the Government's policy of economic liberalization. Also, notwithstanding the recentimprovements, the Board of Investment (BOI) and Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) still remainineffective in their promotional activities. Findings of recent small surveys carried by the World Bank'sResident Mission in Dhaka (Box 1) shed some light on the dimensions of these problems.

105. The Government should take further steps to strengthen these institutions for an effectiveimplementation of the policy reforms and turn some of these entities (specifically BOI and EPB) intopro-active promotion agencies. They should be streamlined, with their procedures simplified and stafftrained to deal with the business community. The Government should further improve institutionalizedmechanisms for formal consultations with private sector to resolve major bureaucratic impediments totheir daily activities and receive feedback on the actual implementation of policy and institutionalreforms. (Annex at the end of the text reports on the progress achieved in the implementation of actionstaken by the Government to address some of these issues).

- 28 -

106. Regarding administrative reforms, overall progress of the ongoing efforts aimed at theelimination of redundant functions and restructuring/downsizing of government departments has beenunsatisfactory. Some difficult but important medium- and long-term issues, such as the inter-cadreissues, have not been addressed yet, and not much progress is likely to be achieved in improvingpersonnel management and training in FY95. There is a need for renewed commitment to theseadministrative reforms.

Box 1. Additional Costs of Doine Business and Chaneing Business Environment

To gather qualitative information about the implementation of recent reform measures and obtain feedbackon delays/problems encountered at some of the key Government institutions, the World Bank's Resident Mission inDhaka carried out a small scale survey of 75 RMG exporters. Also, about 220 manufacturing concerns were surveyedto learn about their perception of recent changes in the business environment. The findings are summarized below underpanels A and B, respectively.

PANEL A:1) On an average it took:

(i) 12 days (with a maximum of 30 days) for the exporters' imported inputs to be released through customsat the ports/airport;(ii) 9 days (with a maximum of 75 days) to obtain customs clearance for exporting a shipment;(iii) 7 days (with a maximum of 30 days) to complete all the documents required for exports; and,(iv) on an average a firm spends more than half a person-year to deal with Government agencies such ascustoms, port authority, tax department, EPB, and various ministries. Moreover, a firm has to spend 7percent of its sales revenue (on an average) to overcome the delays by Government agencies in imponingand exporting of goods.

2) According to the responses, DEDO takes, on an average, up to 52 days (with a maximum of 120 days) toissue the refund check for duty drawback.

3) The most important reasons that were cited for causing delays in meeting deadlines for shipment werehartals/labor strikes, customs clearance, power failures, delays by fabric suppliers, and delays at ports.

4) Most of the Special Bonded Warehouse users indicated that their experience with the customs authority wasnot satisfactory.

PANEL B:1) A majority (57 percent) of the respondents, specially those that are engaged in exports, thought that the

business climate was more favorable to the private sector now than five years back. And 52 percent of therespondents indicated that day-to-day constraints and bottlenecks facing in business activities have decreased.

2) The attitude of the bureaucracy does not seem to have changed over the last five years as 70 percent of therespondents did not think that government officials are more responsive to the problems and needs of theprivate sector.

3) Among the reform measures, the deregulation of industrial investment does not appear to have beenimplemented fully according to 53 percent of the respondents who did not agree that it is easier to start anew business or expand an existing one now than previously. However, most of them agreed that it iseasier to import machineries (77 percent) and raw materials (71 percent) than before. Two-thirds of theexport-oriented firms also found it easier to export goods at present.

4) The surveyed entrepreneurs seemed to be divided on the quality of service provided by such GOB agenciesas EPB, BOI and the commercial banks, as about half of them found the services of these institutions tohave improved over the last five years while the other half found their services to be just as poor. Bycontrast, all the respondents unequivocally found the services of NBR (Customs, VAT, Income tax), DEDO,PDB, DESA, WASA, and Titas Gas to be just as bad as before and the reforms seemed to have failed tobring improvements in the quality of services offered by these agencies.

- 29 -

Attacking Poverty

107. In addition to accelerating the economic growth rate, strengthening of the social sectorprograms, and efforts aimed at rural development and expansion of water supply and sanitation are alsokey elements of the Government's poverty alleviation objective. The Government has continued itsefforts to improve conditions in these areas by shifting more budgetary resources (both from the revenuebudget and the ADP). This trend is continuing in the FY95 Budget. There is, however, need for acontinued effort to improve the quality of services in the social sectors.

108. In education, to ensure the success of the efforts aimed at improving the quality of primaryeducation through curriculum development, textbook distribution and teacher training, the wastage in theschool system needs to be reduced. Long-term teacher development strategies are needed to improvethe education and training levels of teachers, particularly in non-government schools. And greateremphasis is needed to improve student learning achievements. Teacher recruitment and deploymentneed to provide a balanced distribution of educated and trained teachers across all schools, including thenon-government schools where about 40 percent of primary and 98 percent of secondary students areenrolled. Also, the expansion of enrollments to include poor children is particularly important inattacking poverty.

109. There has been varying degrees of progress in most areas of family planning and primarvhealth care services. A widely accepted and comprehensive National Health Policy needs to bedeveloped in the light of a health sector review, with new directions for effective primary services,specially directed to mothers, children, and extremely poor in both rural and urban areas. The plan tofocus on younger couples in family planning and the promotion of clinical methods of contraceptionwill, if implemented, improve effectiveness of the program. Private sector participation and informationcampaigns should be promoted and expanded. Maternal and child care and primary health care (PHC)services could be made more efficient and effective if their organization and rationale were betteriterated and resources allocated appropriately. An urban PHC program also needs to be developed.The National Health Policy will give direction to such a process and its preparation should be completedas soon as possible.

110. The FY95 government program for water supplv and sanitation expansion is very appropriate,though the GOB's FY95 plan for the construction of more than 2 million rural latrines appearsambitious. As regard efforts aimed at addressing urban poverty, little progress has been made inarticulating urban policies to mitigate the situation. GOB should play a more active role in coordinatingthe donors' efforts in this area to ensure that these complement and reinforce each other. It should alsocome up with an overall policy framework to deal with the urban development and urban poverty issues.Given the complexity of the task involved, the GOB will need external support to deal with thesituation. In this respect, the GOB recently initiated a study on urban poverty, with donor assistance.

111. As regards efforts aimed at enhancing credit access opportunities for the poor, the initiativesof BB, commercial banks and Grameen Bank to promote the expansion of sound market-oriented creditprovision and savings mobilization in rural areas and urban slums are well placed. However, to ensuresustainable success in these efforts, the continuing pressure to lower interest rates for rural lendingshould be resisted.

112. With respect to the targeted safety net programs, the progress toward raising the fooddistribution under the "vulnerable group development" (VGD) and the "food for work" (FFW) programshas been mixed. While the distribution under FFW is expected to exceed the target of 500,000 MT inFY95, that under the VGD program is likely to fall short of 350,000 MT target. GOB and the donors

- 30 -

need to consider ways of supporting an expansion in this vital social safety net. This outcome alsounderscores the need for strengthening of institutions for food assisted development programs, such thatthey can be integrated into the overall development program.

113. The Government, taking into account the important linkage between poverty alleviation andenvironment, has also carried out a commendable process of consultation with cross-sectional groups ofthe society to develop a broad framework for addressing environmental issues and for completing animportant phase in the preparation of a "National Environmental Management Action Plan" (NEMAP).The task now is to assess the various environmental risks confronting Bangladesh, define some key,time-bound and realistic environmental objectives, adopt an appropriately designed and workablestrategy and identify a set of priority actions, indicating which agency is responsible for theirimplementation with clear deadlines. It is also important to weigh the relative costs and benefits ofproposed solutions. Future work would need to involve more rigorous economic analysis as a basis formaking difficult choices and setting priorities. And the use of market-based policy regime--prices thatreflect negative externalities and/or appropriately set indirect taxes--should weigh heavily in determiningthe policy regime in support of environmental objectives. In addition, the NEMAP needs to linked to doNational Conservation Strategy and sector plans for natural resources such as water, fisheries andforests.

F. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND EXTERNAL AID DISBURSEMENTS

114. Bangladesh has to achieve a sustained increase in economic growth to above the 6 percentrange in order to improve prospects for poverty alleviation. With the sustained macroeconomicstability, comfortable budgetary and balance of payments situation and foreign exchange reserves,Bangladesh continues to have an opportunity to start moving the economy to a higher plateau ofinvestment, economic growth, incomes, savings, and employment creation. The Government mustcapitalize on these rather positive macroeconomic conditions, and strongly re-commit itself to a fast paceof reforms in all three major reform areas expounded above. Because of their strong complementarityand reinforcing effects, it is important to stress that reforms should be carried out in all of these areas toensure the success of rapid growth efforts. Incomplete reform effort would adversely affect prospectsfor faster growth. And a failure to accelerate the stalled reform program would not alter the currentgrowth performance and poor prospects for lowering the absolute number of the poor.

115. External environment. Another compelling reason for Bangladesh to accelerate reforms isthat it should prepare itself for an external environment that is becoming increasingly competitive andpave the way for the development of a competitive and diversified export base. External developmentsare showing that the trend of increasing competition in global markets will continue with the increasingintensity of trade liberalization, and globalization of economic linkages. And now with the recentconclusion of the Uruguay Round, which has important implications for Bangladesh's single mostimportant export item RMGs, Bangladesh needs to not only maintain/enhance its competitiveness inRMGs, jute/products, leather goods, and frozen fish, but also move into other potential export areas,exploiting its comparative advantage in labor.

116. Currently, over 50 percent of Bangladesh's exports comprise of RMGs. Of this almost halfare restricted by Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) quotas. Potentially, the termination of the MFAAgreement can result in increased exports of these commodities. On the other hand, phasing out ofMFA quotas will level the playing field for all textile and clothing exporters. If Bangladesh's productsare not competitive with other countries' garment exports, it may result in trade diversion and loss of a

- 31 -

hitherto guaranteed market for Bangladesh's garments.

117. Recent studies show that the removal of MFA will substantially increase South Asia's exportsof textiles and clothing.-' Bangladesh's share in this increase will be determined largely by thecompetitiveness of its products vis-a-vis India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. For Bangladesh to retain--andpreferably expand--its export share, it is essential that its exporters remain internationally competitive.This would require continuous access to inputs at internationally competitive prices, while a relentlesseffort in product, design, and fashion development, and market promotion would also be needed. Also,improvements in the cost and quality of domestic input suppliers could contribute both to RMGcompetitiveness, as well to Bangladesh's net external trade position. While the MFA removal process isbackloaded, with nearly half the products scheduled to be liberalized in the tenth year, Bangladeshcannot afford to be complacent. Developing countries the world over are gearing up to take advantageof the opportunities created by the Uruguay Round. In this regard, Bangladesh's trade liberalizationwill play an important role by increasing competitive pressures in the domestic market, thereby inducingefficiency in production and resource allocation, and also encouraging export diversification. Already,there are signs of increasing export diversity beyond RMG, frozen fish, shrimp, and leather products,with potential items such as fresh flowers, computer software development and electronic dataprocessing, silk, and stuffed toys.

118. The accelerated-reforms scenario. Prospects for faster growth will be strong under anaccelerated-reforms program. But, the Government must move in all fronts to remove the perception ofpolicy uncertainty, establish the credibility of commitment to market-based reforms, and thus, ensurerapid growth. It is particularly important not to delay those actions that are critical for raising privateinvestment levels. The strengthening of public administration in resource management, qualityenhancement in public expenditures and the ADP implementation will be important. This would pavethe way for further increases in public investment without compromising its quality and efficiency, whilealso ensuring a sustained macroeconomic stability. Early actions to speed up the process of reformingthe financial sector, tariff rationalization, and of privatization will also be critical.

119. Under this accelerated-reforms scenario, with total investment rising from an annual averageof 12.8 percent of GDP in FY90-94 to 16.1 percent in FY95-99 and 18.7 percent in the first part of thenext decade, GDP growth would gradually rise from below 5 percent in the first half of the 1990s toabout 7 percent by the end of the decade (Table 7). In terms of sectoral growth, the accelerated-reformsscenario assumes that the growth in agriculture would increase from 1.8 percent in FY94 to 2.8 percentin the medium-term, which is not unrealistic as elaborated in Paragraphs 92 and 93 above. Acceleratedreforms would stimulate increasing dynamism in industry (i.e., manufacturing, mining, utilities, andconstruction), driven by an expanding investment activity. As a result, industrial growth would risefrom about 7 percent in FY90-94 to 9.6 in the second half of the 1990s. Growth in manufacturingwould rise from also 7 percent to above 11 percent over the same period, with a faster expansion ofexport-oriented production. Expanding linkages with the service sector, particularly with anincreasingly healthier banking sector, would also lead to a higher growth in the latter sector--from 5.2 to6 percent.

120. Because of high import content of investment and import liberalization, rising investment andgrowth would also gradually raise the import/GDP ratio--from just under 16 percent to almost 20percent by the end of the decade. The exports/GDP ratio would also start rising--from about 10 percent

L'' A recent study--Yongzheg, Y., Martin, W., and Yangashima, K. Evaluating the Benefits of Abolishing the MFA in the Uniguav Round Package,Mimeo., The World Bank, October 1994--estimates that following the removal of MFA, South Asia's aggregate exports of textiles and clothingwill increase by 23 percent and 123 percent, respectively, while their outputs will expand by 12 and 51 percent.

- 32 -

in FY94 to just under 13 percent by the end of the 1990s--with the positive impact of a falling anti-export bias of the incentive regime and improvements in the institutional support. In the medium-termn,RMGs, leather products, fish products, other non-traditional exports as well as jute/products wouldcontinue to be the key exports items, while further export diversification would also start.

Table 7: Medium Term Growth Scenario: Key Macro Indicators(In percent of GDP, unless noted otherwise)

FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FYOO FY90- FY95- FY00-94 99 04

Prelim. Average

Accelerated Reform Scenario

GDP growth rate (real) 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.9 4.7 5.8 7.1

Gross fixed investment 14.2 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.1 17.9 18.1 12.8 16.1 18.7Private 7.8 7.3 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.3 10.5 6.8 8.8 11.3Public 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.6 6.0 7.3 7.4

National saving 12.6 12.0 12.5 13.1 14.0 14.7 14.9 9.3 13.3 15.4Private 11.2 10.5 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 11.9 6.9 11.0 12.1Public 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.3 3.2

Government budgetRevenue 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 10.7 12.8 13.9Expenditure -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.1 -18.3 -18.5 -18.7 -18.5 -18.2 -18.6Overall deficit -5.9 -5.8 -5.4 -5.3 -5.2 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8 -5.4 -4.7

External sector

Current account balance -1.6 -2.2 -2.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 -2.8 -3.3Exports/GDP 9.8 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.0 12.6 8.4 10.7 13.5Imports,'GDP -16.2 -16.4 -17.0 -17.8 -18.6 -19.2 -19.6 -15.8 -17.8 -20.3Reserves in months of imp. 8.1 8.3 8.2 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 7.7 6.4

Sorce: Staff Estimases.

121. The external current account deficit would remain at above 3 percent of GDP in the later partof the 1990s. The current account deficit and debt amortization would be financed by rising aiddisbursements that would most likely be forthcoming in response to stepped up reforms and continuingimprovements in the ADP implementation. Also, particularly in later years, foreign direct investmentin, especially, infrastructure and utilities would contribute to the balancing of external accounts. Withcontinuously rising import demand, foreign exchange reserves would come down from their currentlevel of over 8 months of imports equivalent to 7 months of imports by the end of the decade.

122. Under this scenario, budgetary developments would continue their positive trend. With anincreasing coverage of VAT and improvements in the tax administration, the revenue-GDP ratio wouldgradually rise, more than offsetting any likely tariff revenue losses associated with further tariffrationalization, and finance an increasing portion of government expenditures. Consequently, theoverall budget deficit would fall from about 6 percent of GDP in FY94 to below 5 percent by the end of1990s.

123. The slow-reform scenario. Failure to accelerate the slow moving reform process under suchfavorable macro conditions would basically leave the investment environment unchanged. With so manycritical policy and institutional areas facing incomplete reform programs, it will be difficult to convince

- 33 -

the domestic and, especially, foreign investors to undertake increasing levels of invetment. Projectionscarried out under the assumption of slow moving reform program show that GDP growth would renminbelow 5 percent in the medium-term because of continuing sluggish private investment activity. This iscertainly not a desirable scenario, under which economic activity would continue at levels lower thanwhat is needed to tackle poverty, with the consequent enduring increase in the absolute number of poorand social tensions.

External Fuac in FY96

124. Strong commitment to the acceleration of unfinished reforms and sustaining efforts to improvethe quality of public expenditures in general and public investment in particular would be important forBangladesh to continue obtaining donor aid in meeting its external financing needs, especially in view ofthe increasing competition for concessional aid and declining supply of grant money. Recentimprovements in the ADP implementation and continuing efforts aimed at better prioritization ofdevelopment expenditures are good signs, but these efforts should be intensified and institutionalized.Assuming that such efforts continue and GOB accelerates reforms, the projections for such a rapidgrowth scenario indicate increases in the external current account deficit relative to GDP in the medium-term, as imports grow faster. This implies-notwithstanding Bangladesh's currently comfortable balanceof payments situation-a moderately rising need for external assistance in the medium-term, starting witha project aid disbursement of about $1.3 billion for FY96. Commodity aid disbursements, projected at$0.4 billion, would continue at roughly their expected FY95 level as a result of continuing adjustmentoperations. And food aid disbursements are projected at $0.15 billion, consistent with the levels of foodaid in recent years. The pace and composition of FY96 aid disbursements will ultimately depend,however, on the speed at which the Government implements the needed reforms.

125. With the increasing openness of the economy, private capital flows, including foreign directinvestment, will play a greater role in meeting Bangladesh's external financing needs. Nevertheless,concessional official assistance will continue to play an important role in meeting Bangladesh'sdevelopment needs.

ANNEX

ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESSIN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF REFORMS

UNDER THE PARIS UNDERSTANDING FOR FY95

ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS IN MEETING TARGETS UNDER THE PARIS UNDERSTANDING FOR FY95

I. ATTACKING POVERTY

Reform Actions under the Progress to Date Overall Assessment and Prospects for Remainder of FY95Paris Understanding

Reinforce priority to improving A new national curriculum is being developed for all five primary classes and Primary school enrollment and attendance are improving.quality of primary/mass education introduced nationwide into classes 1, 2 and 3. Free textbooks are distributed However, resources should be targeted to rural and urban areasand sound division of coverage annually. Most government primary school teachers are trained, and an where enrollment and attendance of girls and children of poorbetween govermnent and non- increasing number of non-government school teachers are attending one-year families remain low. Curriculum reform is a continuous processgovernment schools. courses at government training institutes. In-service teacher training is and teachers should be actively involved in review of curriculum

conducted at school, and school cluster levels and additional school implementation. Some textbook re-use has been implemented.supervisors have been appointed. The national teacher-student ratios are Savings could be used for other quality improvements such asabout average for the region. However, class size varies tremendously within provision of stationery, additional reading materials, and schooland between schools as a result of poor teacher deployment practices. libraries. Teacher training and supervision need to place greaterDistribution of government grants has been extended to include a variety of emphasis on raising student learning achievement. Communitynon-government schools, including NGOs conducting nonformal primary support and management of schools are increasing and should beeducation programs. Of all students enrolled in primary schools, 40% are in expanded through incentives for monitoring teacher and studentnon-government schools. attendance.

Accelerate progress in family Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) has increased overall, from 39.9% in There have been varying degrees of progress in most areas, butplanning coverage, improve 1989 to 44.6% in FY94. but within younger age groups progress is slower. given that these are essentially long-term processes, the actionseffectiveness of primary health Contraceptive methods mix has not shifted towards cost-effective methods. need to be pursued in order to achieve improvement in results.care services at the grass roots Private sector, including NGOs. have been involved increasingly. Coverage Efforts to reach the younger unserved couples needs to be geared wlevel, and improve cooperation of essential primary health care services such as immunization is high at the up. Promotion of clinical methods of contraception will improvebetween health and family grass roots level, but coverage of maternity services is very limited. An cost effectiveness. Improvement of quality of services andplanning workers. integrated nutrition project is being prepared. Launching a reorganization management at the field level is essential. Increased acceptance of

study for improving cooperation between health and family workers has been ante natal services and development of a viable MCH networkslow. Two TA projects --- for improving human resources planning, and for needs to be promoted. Private sector participation should beimproving policies on health economics --- have been initiated. further promoted.

Implement water supply and A situation analysis has been prepared, based on which a national program of The program for FY95 is very appropriate, but it is not clearsanitation expansion plan action for the sector will be prepared within FY95. GOB has announced a whether direct subsidy is the most appropriate and cost-effective

program of subsidy for construction of rural latrines, aimed at expanding means of achieving the objective. GOB's quantitative target forsanitation coverage from 35% at present to 50% by mid-1995, which will expansion of sanitation in FY95 appears unrealistic.involve construction of over 2 million latrines.

Adopt urban policies which focus GOB is working with ADB on preparing a TA project for studying urban Little progress has been made in articulating urban policies tomore on urban poor, including poverty in Bangladesh. The TA project has been approved and the study is mitigate the situation. GOB should play a more active role inmonitoring of urban poverty and being initiated. IDA, ADB and Netherlands are working with GOB to prepare coordinating donor efforts in order to ensure consistency ofstrengthening of municipalities for projects for municipal infrastructure development, which explicitly address approach. In addition, it would be desirable for GOB to formulatebetter targeting of their services the poor. soon a comprehensive overall policy framework to facilitate the

formulation of appropriate programs. Given the complexity of thetask involved, GOB will need external support to deal with thesituation.

Operationalize National Council No concrete action has been taken. The Ministry of Women's Affairs has been pursuing this issue withfor Women's Development the Cabinet, but prospects for early action in this area appear

uncertain.

Reform Actis Under the Prorss to Date Overall Assessment and ProsDecs for Remainder for FY9SPari Understandmin

Enhance investment Preparation of the Second Rural Road and Market Improvement Project has GOB has shown greater responsiveness and interest in promoting the

opportunities for been accelerated by IDA at the request of GOB. An ongoing agricultural objective in recent months but clearly more serious efforts are required

intensification and diversification study by IDA, being carried out in close collaboration with as part of a comprehensive overall strategy for promoting agriculturaldiversification of farm GOB, will be exploring possibilities for enhancing agricultural exports. GOB diversification and growth.production and for expansion has expressed interest in a possible IDA-supported project to promoteof non-farm activities by agricultural diversification.accelerating improvement ofrural infrastructure.

Promote expansion of sound Government is actively supporting a joint GOB/IDA/ADB rural finance study, Efforts since March last year have been mixed, with GOB showingmarket-oriented credit which will be looking into more cost-efficient and effective mechanisms for responsiveness and initiative in some areas but lack of full commitmentprovision and savings delivering rural financial services. GOB clearance has been given for the in others. The pressure to lower interest rates for rural lending is notmobilization in rural areas closure of some 93 loss-making rural branches (or 3% of 3000 rural branches encouraging since these pose a threat to the viability of the lendingand urban slums through the in the country), but only 34 branches have been closed so far. Progress in operations. The effort to close down unprofitable rural bank branchesbanking system, NGOs, closure has lagged particularly for NCBs, which have closed down only 4 also appears to lack strong commitment with limited progress in closure

Grameen Bank and BRDB branches although 57 branches had been approved for closure. Bangladesh so far.programs. Bank and commercial banks are in the process of establishing links with

reputable NGOs to reach the poor more effectively. GOB is providingguarantee for floating of bonds by Grameen Bank. Currently GOB is alsoconsidering setting up a poverty credit fund, with donor assistance, to beexecuted by the Bangladesh Bank to help funance poverty lending by institutionslike the Palli Karma Sahayak Foundation, BRAC and other NGOs.

Raise food distribution under Food allocations for the VGD program (which is reaching some 450,000 Overall progress in this area has been mixed. While distribution undervulnerable group women) in FY95 up to December have been about the same level as in FY94, FFW is expected to exceed the annual target (500,000 MT), that under

development (VGD) channel but has lagged considerably behind the annual target. Food donors and GOB VGD is likely to be only about 185,000 MT, considerably less than theto 350,000 MT and under have not been able to raise their level of contribution to match the VGD target. Additional food aid allocations for the VGD program are notfood-for-work (FFW) to distribution target. While GOB has increased its allocation to the VGD expected from the donors during the remainder of the year. GOB and500,000 MT in FY95, and program, this has been inadequate for meeting the annual target. Distribution donors would have to consider how they could jointly support an

improve targeting of these under the FFW program, on the other hand, has been in line with the annual expansion in this vital social safety net, and establish a realistic targetprograms to the more target. The development impact of the VGD program continues to be for FY96. Also food assisted development programs like VGD wouldvulnerable sections of the enhanced, with the development coverage of the women being raised from 28% have to be increasingly integrated into the overall development planning

rural poor, and improve the in 1992/94 to 77% in FY95. in order to raise their development impact. This would require, among

longer-run development other actions, early implementation of the action plans for

impact of these programs. strengthening of institutions for food-assisted development (SIFAD),progress in which has been slow.

Complete the consultation The process of consultation has been completed and a draft NEMAP document Considerable work needs to be done to address the gaps in the draft

process to prepare a widely has been prepared and discussed with donors but progress is behind schedule. NEMAP document before it takes shape as an implementable and well

supported National The NEMAP document in its present form contains a check list of almost all articulated plan. In addition to addressing the various deficienciesEnvironmental Management observable and potential environmental problems and issues confronting the key identified in the current draft, including comments obtained from

Action Plan (NEMAP) and sectors. What it lacks however are: key time-bound short/medium and long- donors, various sectoral plans and strategies, such as the Nationalstart its implementation by term environmental objectives, criteria for establishing priorities and assessing Conservation Strategy, National Water Plan, etc, should be taken into

December; introduce environmental risks; indications of sources of financing of environmental- account in revising the NEMAP.effective mechanism for related actions and, related to this, a statement of the environmentalassessing realistic policy/institutional regime, and a strategy for addressing environmentalreplacement values of concerns related to FCDI projects and FAP.properties expropriated andredressing grievances ofaffected persons.

11. IMPROVING PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Reform Actions Under the Paris Progress to Date Overall Assessment and Prospects forUnderstanding Remainder of FY95

Stress political commitment to urgent action There have been expressions of political commitment to improved public sector performance Prospects for better public sector performanceon improved public sector performance and but these have not been sufficiently strong and the urgency of actions has not always been will depend on high-level interventions to speedaccountability, particularly in Ministries apparent. Commitment to the process of administrative reforms, restructuring and up the policy and institutional reforms affectingcentral to ADP execution and private sector manpower rationalization, for instance, which are crucial for improved public sector project implementation and private sectordevelopment. performance, has not been sufficiently strong. The establishment of an autonomous development. Prospects during the rest of the

Privatization Board and change in the role of the Board of Investment, and appointment of a fiscal year look uncertain, and decision makingSpecial Envoy by the Prime Minister for private sector issues are indications of GOB's is likely to be affected by the politicalcommitment to private sector development, but actual performance in effective deregulation uncertainty.and privatization has been slow. While high-level review meetings, chaired by the PrimeMinister, on ADP implementation did not take place in the first half of FY95, these havebeen initiated recently.

Achieve an appreciable increase in the ADP expenditure in the first half of FY95 was 32% of the annual target, compared to 26% in While there has been some improvement in ADPrealized ADP in FY95, including fulfillment the first half of FY94 and 27% in the first half of FY93. ADP monitoring has improved in realization during the first half of FY95,of at least 35% of the annual target in the FY95 with the setting of quarterly spending targets against which performance is judged. compared to that during the correspondingfirst half; strengthen the implementation Procurement reporting is however still unsatisfactory and subject to delays, and there is yet periods of FY93 and FY94, realization hasmonitoring, enforcement and follow-up no systematic review of status of procurement at a sufficiently high level to deal with cases of fallen short of the target. Actions initiated in amechanisms, and improve the quality of the delays/lapses. The coverage of the training program on procurement should be increased to number of areas need to be followed uppublic investment program. include personnel of all aided projects. A recent positive step is the seting up of a seriously and an action plan implemented for

procurement monitoring cell in IMED, which will cover large/medium-sized contracts on a addressing outstanding problem areas early in s

monthly basis. There has been some delegation of financial authority, and legislation has 1995 in order to achieve a satisfactory ADPbeen amended to provide greater delegation of authority for land acquisition. Instructions outcome in FY95. Procurement ofrequiring full-time Project Directors have been issued. While there has been some goods/works/services will continue to be theimprovement in ADP monitoring by the Planning Commission, and follow-up by LMED, critical area, where the action plan should beconcrete actions are required for institutionalizing improvements in the Ministries/agencies implemented to ensure effective application ofand for ensuring enforcement of targets/guidelines. The three year rolling investment plan GOB's revised procurement guidelines,(TYRIP) and a process of pruning have been institutionalized. However there are questions including compliance with stipulated time limitsabout the rationale and priority of a number of projects in the TYRIP/ADP, and GOB is for various stages of the procurement cycle.reviewing donors' comments. In addition, the quality of appraisal of non-aided Mechanisms for monitoring, enforcement andprojects/programs in the ADP is not known, and a sizable amount of block allocations have follow-up will need to be strengthened andapparently not been linked to performance indicators or provided as part of a prioritized plan. accountability for implementation performanceProject processing/approval, particularly for TAPPs, is not proceeding sufficiently should be institutionalized.expeditiously, with implications for the build-up of the project pipeline.

Complete the work of the Committee on The Nurunnabi Committee (NNC) has been mandated to review 260 governmental Overall progress has been unsatisfactory. The

Intensify efforts for manpower While a sizable share of the excess manpower has been separated through voluntary Progress in separation has been unsatisfactory inrationalization in parastatals, and carry out separation scheme and lay off up to end-FY94, the process has slowed down in FY95 so far, FY95, and prospects for the remainder of FY95small sample surveys of separated workers, largely because of an apparent weakening of political commitment, but also partly inadequate do not appear favorable. There is a need for

funds. The survey of separated manpower has not yet been undertaken. renewed commitment to consolidate the progressachieved and allocate adequate funds for meetingseparation costs.

Agreed Reform Actions Progress to Date Overall Assessment and Prospects for the Remainder of FY95

Implement restructuring plans While a sizable number of staff have opted to leave BADC, the voluntary retirement Overall progress and prospects appear to be mixed. GOB needs

for Bangladesh Agricultural program has been kept in abeyance because of funding constraints. Ministry of to support the separation costs of BADC staff. The TA support

Development Corporation Agriculture has made a request to the European Union for TA support for facilitating to BADC should be approved expeditiously and the

(BADC) and Food restructuring of BADC. A good start has been made in implementing the reform restructuring implemented soon, with forward planning for

Directorate, and a program program in the BWDB with the filling of top management position with full-time downsizing beyond voluntary separation. In the BWDB,

of reform and reorganization Members, and overall progress of the reform program is on schedule. considerable time will be required to bring about qualitative

of the Bangladesh Water changes in the overall work environment, and special efforts

Development Board (BWDB) should be made to speed up the process.

Proceed with law reforms; A Legal Task Force recommended a dated action plan for law reforms but its The agenda for FY95 has been partially implemented, and is

remove legal shortcomings, implementation has been slow, with little substantive actions in strengthening judicial unlikely to be addressed fully during the remainder of the fiscal

understaffing of the judicial processes and training. There has been good progress in drafting legislation year. The process of vetting various draft legislation by the

system, deficiencies in legal (Bankruptcy Bill, Financial Loan Courts Act, Foreign Investment Protection and Law Ministry, and clearance by Cabinet and ultimate ratification

procedures; continue Promotion Act) but these are still awaiting veting by the Law Ministry and by Parliament should be speeded up. Stronger political

updating commercial subsequent submission to Parliament for ratification. There has been little progress in commitment will be required for implementing these vital legal

legislation and establish Law addressing deficiencies in legal procedures and judicial administration. Updating of reforms, particularly since some of these are linked to difficult

Reform Commission. the existing commercial legislation is also proceeding slowly. Although GOB has issues like separation of powers.

decided to establish a Law Reform Commission, it is not yet operational.

Implement expeditiously the A power sector reform program was approved by GOB in September and some TA The TA projects for the implementation of the reform program

power sector reform program projects are being prepared for implementing the program. BPDB has decided to should be approved and implemented expeditiously. Stronger

as a means of bringing the contract out some of its commercial operation functions (meter reading/billing) to the political commitment will be required to address the institutional

unacceptably high systems private sector. BPDB and DESA will be monitoring system losses at the 1I -KV and management issues for reducing systems loss to an

loss under control. feeder level. System losses and low revenue collections continue to be the major acceptable level,

problems confronting BPDB and DESA. Average systems loss for a 12-month period

ending October was 23.1% for BPDB, 31.5% for DESA and 35.2% combined.

Pursue implementation of the Satisfactory progress has been made in separation of excess manpower of Bangladesh Overall progress has been mixed, with much better progress for

reform plans to transform the Railways (BR), in formulating an institutional reform program, and in contracting out BR than in BIWTA/BIWTC. Stronger commitment will be

main transport parastatals some ticketing operations to the private sector. After a period of standstill, there has required to speed up the implementation of the various action

into commercially-oriented been some momentum since last January in the implementation of various action plans plans for BIWTA and BIWTC. GOB will also need to review

and market responsive for improving the operational performance of BIWTA and BIWTC, but progress the proposed reform program for BR and adopt and implement

organizations. continues to lag behind schedule. an action plan soon.

Continue progress in tax Progress in improving VAT administration has been partly constrained by delays in Overall progress has been mixed. While there have been

administration and efficiency appointing a VAT advisor, who is now expected to arrive by end-January. In income improvements in tax policy, stronger commitment would be

of the tax system, and in tax, while some progress has been made in reorganizing the jurisdiction of tax offices required for strengthening tax administration in order to improve

rationalizing public and raising the number of assessing officers, these effons are inadequate for tax compliance and enforcement. VAT administration should be

expenditures by strengthened improving tax enforcement. In the revenue budget, low priority expenditures, like strengthened further to improve the coverage of domestic VAT.

control over low-priority untargeted food subsidies, continue to be controlled. GOB has recently decided to In income tax there is a need for more measures: recruiting

spending and adequate award an interim across-the board 10% increase in basic pay of Government additional assessing officers; computerizing income tax accounts;

allocations for operations and employees, whose budgetary implications have not been fully assessed. Allocations in identifying new tax payers through surveys and registers on

maintenance (O&M). the FY95 budget for operations and maintenance (O&M) in key sectors (roads, importers/exporters/VAT payers; prioritizing efforts by

irrigation and flood control structures, etc) have been raised in real terms. expanding self-assessment for low income groups and focusing

on assessment of higher income groups.

111. ENERGIZING THE PRIVATE SECTOR

Aged Reform AProwess to Date Oval Asesment and ProsectsrRemWader of EK95

Extend tiade liberaization measures Only two hems have been removed from the FY95 Control List, leaving QRs on 26 HS-4 The agenda has been implemented only partially,by reducing irport controls, by items (mosdy textiles) for trade reasons. Tariff rationalization is continuing satisfactorily, and prospects for early action in the reminder ofrationalizing tariff structure, and by with the highest rate of duty coming down to 60% for nost iteas. The number of tariff the year appear uncertain.reducing reliane on tariff values rates has also been reduced from 12 to 5. The average tariff rate has been lowered fromdtrough increased use of pre- 40% in FY94 to 30% in FY95. While tariff values continue to be used as the basis forshipment inspection (PSI) or other determination of customs duties for the bulk of imports, one positive decision is that in themeans. case of goods imported under PSI the PSI value will override the tariff value.

Ensure more effective high-level While key officials in NBR, Ministry of Commerce nd BOT hold frequent meetings with Overall progress in this area has beenmonitoring of implementation and private sector representatives in the various Chambers of Commerce and Industry to resolve unsatisfactory. There is yet no formal monitoringapplication of policy reforms at the major problems and irritants, no formal institutional setup is yet in place for reporting and set-up and the programs for strengthening andbusinessman's level, and strengthen monitoring progress. The reorganization plan for BOI has been approved by the Ministry of restructuring of BOI, DEDO and EPB have notthe Board of Investment (BOI), Establishment, but has been awaiting further clearance by Finance Ministry for some time. been implemented; prospects for action in theDuty Exemption and Drawback The DEDO continues to lack adequate professional staff, which has also affected its remainder of FY95 appear uncertain. There is aOffice (DEDO) and Export functioning, and businessmen continue to experience problems in claiming duty drawback. need for strong political commitment to movePromotion Bureau (EPB) to make Exporters are not satisfied with EPB's service. While a reorganization plan has been decisively with the restructuring of BOI, DEDOthem truly private sector supporting proposed for the EPB quite some time ago, it has not been adopted yet. Problems and EPB, and to change the orientation of theseorganizations with strong technical encountered with the customs administration are considered to be a major obstacle to the agencies to promote private sector activity.expertise. smooth functioning of businesses.

Improve Bangladesh's inage as an In April GOB set up a Task Force to propose measures to increase FDI. The Task Force has Overall progress has been satisfactory. However,attractive destination for foreign proposed an 18-point agenda, based on which a detailed action plan is being formulated. some recent measures regarding participation by A

direct investment (FDI) by giving Facilities for foreign investors in the EPZ have been expanded; BOI is now more responsive foreign investors in the capital market is likely toattention to the services available to to foreign investors. Key GOB officials have been active in major foreign capital markets in be restrictive. While a number of positiveforeign investors. advocating Bangladesh's case as a favorable destination for FDI. The Bangladesh Investment initiatives have been taken, political instability and

Conference organized jointdy by the BOI and Euromoney in January 1995 was attended by a the legacy of regulations however continue tonumber of international fund managers and some potential foreign investors and generated undermine the country's potential for attractingconsiderable interest by international investors. FDI.

Prepare and begin implementation of A reform plan was discussed by an IDA financial sector Mission with GOB in August 1993 While there has been progress in a number ofa comprehensive reform plan for but this has not been adopted or implemented effectively. Actions have been taken in a areas, particularly policy improvements, progressBangladesh Bank (BB) to enhance number of areas to improve supervisory/regulatory functions: monitoring through the has been limited in enhancing BB's institutionalits supervisory capacity and CAMEL rating system, credit risk analysis system, on-site inspection, new guidelines on loan capacity. A comnprehensive reform plan for BBstrengthen regulatory enforcement classification and provisioning, and understanding reached with selected private banks. has been available, and this should besubstantially. However, further rationalization of BB's organization structure, including improvements in implemented effectively. BB's supervisory

management and staffing policies, is required in order to improve its institutional capacity. capacity is improving gradually. Regulatoryenforcement has also inproved and furtherimprovements are expected.

Remove legal obstacles to debt An amendment to the Financial Loan Courts Act 1990 has been drafted, but has been Overall progress is unsatisfactory. The amendmentrecovery by amending the Financial awaiting vetting by the Law Ministry before submission to Parliament for ratification. A to the Financial Loan Courts Act 1990 should beLoan Courts Act, 1990, and final decision on appointment of additional judges exclusively for the Loan Courts has not yet ratified by Parliament as soon as possible. Thestrengthen these courts with been taken, and the Law Ministry is still dealing with this matter. GOB is considering decision regarding appointment of judges for tdeadditional judges, magistrates and appointment of special loan recovery officers, and this proposal should be implemented Loan Courts should also be taken as soon aspolice to enforce decrees for faster expeditiously. possible.realization of defaulting loans.

Acreed Reform Actions Profress to Date Overall Assessment and Prospects for Remainder ofFY95

Strengthen the financial condition Bangladesh Bank has introduced a revised loan classification and provisioning system The recently introduced classification and provisioning

of the banking system by which aims to achieve international standards within 2-5 years. This system now system is not adequate to deal with the problem, and efforts

tightening the classification and allows 50% deduction for land/buildings as collateral, the effect of which will be to should be made to improve it gradually. The capital

provisioning requirements and by reduce provisioning requirements. This raises questions about the adequacy of the strengthening plan has been partially implemented so far but

working capital strengthening provisions, particularly given the capital inadequacy of most banks . BB has started the process is continuing.

plans. working on capital strengthening of individual private banks and has reached

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with 5 such banks, but the process has been

slow. Ministry of Finance has agreed to recapitalize the NCBs annually for jute

sector loans, and some funds have already been provided.

Encourage the growth of sound Following clearance by a Cabinet Sub-Committee, BB has approved issuance of Banking license to all the 7 new banks is likely to be issued

private sector banking so that license to 7 new banks. License has been issued to I bank so far, and is expected to within FY95. Other required elements of the reform are

competition can be enhanced; and be granted to 2 others soon. These 3 new banks are expected to start their operations unlikely to be addressed in FY95 unless GOB demonstrates

rationalize branch network and by the end of FY95. Hard budget constraints have not yet been imposed on public greater resolve.

staffing of the NCBs. enterprises which continue to have easy access to the banking system. Although

Ministry of Finance has authorized each of the four nationalized commercial banks

(NCBs) to close down 57 of their loss-making branches, only 4 branches have been

closed down, and there has been no retrenchment for that purpose.

Accelerate the process of A total of 64 public enterprises (PEs) have been included in the privatization program Out of the 64 public enterprises (PEs) targeted for

privatization through the so far. 4 PEs were privatized in FY93 and FY94. Some 7 PEs have been privatization in FY95, perhaps no more than one-third of

Privatization Board and prepare a transferred to the new owners in FY95 so far, while 7 PEs await hand-over. An these PEs are likely to be actually privatized in FY95. A

program of privatization for additional 19 PEs are in various stages of tendering. The privatization program for more decisive stance is required in order to speed up the

FY96. FY96 will include about 41 new PEs, plus a sizable number likely to be carried over slow pace of privatization.

from FY95.

Complete and activate the In power, GOB has received 22 private sector proposals for setting up generation Progress in the power sector continues to be slow and

regulatory arrangements plants, but these are not sufficiently substantive, and GOB has requested additional greater conunitment will be required. In the gas sector,

envisaged to enable private sector information from them. GOB is inviting private sector proposals for a power progress to-date in negotiating PSCs is satisfactory, but

investment in power, gas and generation plant at Meghnaghat. Since GOB lacks technical expertise for evaluation Petrobangla's limited technical capacity to negotiate and

telecommunications, and secure of proposals, it is seeking technical assistance from donors. In gas, no regulatory absence of a regulatory body are the main constraints. In

new private investment in these body has yet been set up: two production sharing contracts (PSCs) for gas exploration the telecommunications sector, progress to date in some of

sectors. and development have already been signed and some more are being negotiated and the reform measures has been satisfactory.

expected to be signed shortly. In telecommunications the Cabinet has approved aBTTB Ordinance, which separates the operation and regulatory functions, but this hasnot yet been submitted to Parliament for ratification. GOB is negotiating a jointventure with a leading telecommunication equipment manufacturing enterprise to

acquire majority ownership in the local telephone manufacturing company (TSS).

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TableNo. Section/Title Paze No.

HUMAN RESOURCES . 49

1.1 Population Projections1.2 Population Benchmarks by District1.3 Vital Population Statistics1.4 Comparison of Child Nutritional Status Results from

Three National Surveys1.5 Health Statistics1.6 Family Planning Statistics1.7 Distribution of Population by Economic Activities1.8 Employment by Occupation and by Sex1.9 Income Distribution and Poverty Indicators1.10 School Attendance and Adult Literacy Rate

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS .................... 59

2.1 Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices2.2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant (1984/85) Prices2.3 Gross Domestic Product, Sectoral Deflators2.4 GDP Growth2.5 Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure in Current Prices

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .................... 64

3.1 Balance of Payments3.2 Balance of Payments - Requirements and Sources Format3.3 Value of Total Exports by Commodity3.4 Quantity and Value of Traditional Goods Exports3.5 Quantity and Value of Non-Traditional Exports3.6 Quantity and Value of Major Import Commodities3.7 Imports and Exports Volume and Price indices and Terms of Trade3.8 Total Import Financing3.9 Aid Pipeline3.10 Commitments and Disbursements of Aid by Type of Aid3.11 Average Exchange Rates3.12 Real Exchange Rate Index

TableNo. Section/Title Page No.

EXTERNAL DEBT ................... 76

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursed4.2 Service Payments, Commnitments, Disbursements and Outstanding

Amounts of External Public Debt

BUDGET .... ... 80

5. 1 Revised Budget Summary5.2 Revised Budget Estimates of Current Revenues and Expenditures5.3 Actual Income and Expenditure of the Central Government5.4 Annual Development Programme5.5 Financial Performance of State-Owned Enterprises

MONEY AND BANKING.. . ................ 85

6.1 Money Supply and Domestic Liquidity6.2 Agricultural Credit Issued by Major Credit Institutions6.3 Loans Sanctioned by Development Finance Institutions6.4 Nominal Interest Rates on Selected Savings Accounts & Certificates6.5 Nominal Interest Rates on Advances

AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

7.1 Land Utilization Statistics7.2 Area Under Main Crops7.3 Production of Main Crops7.4 Aus and Aman Production by District7.5 Production of Boro and Wheat by District7.6 Jute Production by District7.7 Irrigation Summary7.8 Commercial Fertilizer Distribution by Type and Region7.9 Public Foodgrain Distribution System Operations7.10 Seasonality of Public Foodgrain Distribution System Offtake7.11 Supply and Disposition of Raw Jute7.12 Public Foodgrain Procurement by District7.13 Public Procurement of Aman Rice and Paddy by District7.14 Public Procurement of Boro and IRRI Rice and Paddy and Wheat

TableNo. Section/Title Page No.

INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE . ....................... 105

8.1 Quantum Index of Medium and Large Scale Manufacturing Industries8.2 Production of Selected Industrial Goods8.3 Chittagong Export Processing Zone Statistics8.4 Natural Gas Statistics8.5 Electricity Production and Consumption8.6 Railway Statistics8.7 Transport Statistics

PRICES AND WAGES ................ 113

9.1 Consumer Price Indices9.2 Natural Gas and Petroleum Product Prices9.3 Retail Prices of Petroleum Products9.4 Wholesale Prices of Consumer Goods in Urban Areas9.5 Wholesale Prices Indices of Agricultural and Industrial Products9.6 Daily Wages for Unskilled Labor9.7 Wage Differentials9.8 Agricultural Wage Rates

- 49 -

Tabb 1.1BANGLADESH POPULATION PROJECTIONS('0001Pro,etlon wtth NRA - I by 2010

AGE GROUP 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

TOTAL M+F 108275 119401 130512 141306 151211 160787 170385 179659

MALES0.4 8287 8092 8161 8059 7665 7665 7874 79455-9 8146 7978 7847 7968 7914 7542 7556 777810-14 7378 8045 7891 7776 7909 7862 7497 751715-19 6283 7276 7944 7804 7702 7841 7801 744520-24 5242 6149 7132 7804 7683 7593 7742 771325-29 4331 5099 5993 6972 7652 7547 7473 763430-34 3665 4202 4957 5846 6826 7508 7420 736135-39 2626 3544 4072 4821 5706 6679 7363 72914044 2161 2522 3414 3936 4679 5553 6515 719945-49 1827 2056 2405 3269 3784 4511 5369 631550-54 1541 1713 1931 2267 3094 3594 4298 513155-59 1304 1409 1568 1775 2094 2870 3347 401960-64 1037 1146 1241 1387 1579 1872 2581 302765-89 753 857 950 1034 1164 1335 1595 221670-74 513 567 648 723 793 902 1046 126375+ 680 575 611 684 774 874 1007 1184TOTAL 55676 61230 66765 72154 77018 81749 84686 91040

FEMALES0-4 8027 7844 7900 7789 7398 7388 7580 76385-9 774e 7747 7627 7733 7669 7296 7298 750010-14 6894 7646 7663 7561 7682 7623 7257 726515-19 6033 6784 7542 7576 7492 7619 7569 721220-24 4968 5886 6639 7407 7465 7394 7532 749325-29 4107 4813 5725 6486 7268 7339 7284 743530-34 3440 3966 4667 5579 6349 7131 7217 717735-39 2486 3313 3835 4535 5446 6213 6994 709440-44 2055 2385 3192 3712 4411 5310 6073 6865245-49 1756 1962 2286 3073 3590 4276 5162 591850-54 1464 1657 1858 2176 2940 3445 4117 496455-59 1177 1355 1540 1737 2045 2775 3265 391780-64 910 1052 1219 1396 1586 1878 2563 303365-69 645 771 898 1049 1214 1391 1662 228770-74 432 501 604 711 842 986 1145 138575+ 458 488 553 663 799 973 1182 1427TOTAL 52599 58171 63748 69182 74193 79308 83899 88619

-nh Rate 31.4 28.3 25.2 22 20.5 19.7 18.7Desth Rate 11.2 9.9 8.9 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.0Rate of Nat'l. Inc. 2.02 1.84 1.63 1.39 1.25 1.17 1.07Net MAgtation Rate -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1Growth Rate 1.96 1.78 1.59 1.36 1.23 1.16 1.06Total Fenility 4.000 3.391 2.874 2.436 2.280 2.258 2.236NRR 1.572 1.382 1.212 1.058 1.000 1.000 1.000.101 - 80th Sexes 55.48 57.62 59.89 62.19 63.37 64.58 65.83of15) - Both Sexes 49.92 50.63 51.56 52.65 53.43 54.24 55.07IMA - Both Sexes 90.9 77.5 64.9 53.8 49.2 44.7 40.1q(5) - Both Sexes 0.1294 0.1082 0.0885 0.0711 0.0651 0.0591 0.0530Dep. Ratio 85.4 74.3 64.9 57.8 52.1 47.6 44.8 44.6

Source: World lank.

Table 1.2POKILATIN UENCHMA9S BY DISTRICT

Extrapltion

Division 1961 1974 ------------ 1981 Cus-------------- 1974-to-1981 to 1985 1 .-.------.---- 1991 Cs S1----Ditrict Cenan Census Total mew FerAle Househods Avwage Growth Total Per ha Totai Male Fsmel. ousehokds Averag

HH Size Rate NH Size

Raphahi 11850 17332 21087 10789 10298 3716 5.7 2.8 24339 625 26668 13642 13026 6053 5.3Dinwur 1710 2571 3198 1647 1551 580 5.5 3.2 3738 473 4044 2080 1964 777 S.2Rengpur 3796 5447 6490 3325 3165 1196 5.4 2.5 7401 677 8155 4155 4000 1594 5.18o9rs 1574 2231 2718 1384 1334 489 5.6 2.9 3139 699 3460 1776 1684 685 5.0ReihiN 2811 4268 5263 2677 2586 894 5.9 3.0 6121 556 6706 3417 3288 1241 5.4Pabna 1959 2815 3418 1756 1882 557 6.1 2.8 3940 693 4305 2214 2091 756 5.7

Khuhi 10067 14195 17150 8831 8319 2884 5.9 2.7 19715 508 20804 10645 10159 3807 5.5Kushtia 1166 1884 2273 1167 1106 359 6.3 2.7 2611 654 2865 1475 1391 521 5.5

Jessore 2190 3327 4016 2069 1947 633 6.3 2.7 4614 600 5006 2568 2438 887 5.6Khun 2449 3557 4353 2264 2089 741 5.9 2.7 5041 361 5279 2711 2568 974 5.4S8isl 3068 3928 4668 2398 2270 830 5.6 2.7 5315 646 4092 2077 2015 771 5.3Putuakh h 1194 1499 1840 933 907 321 5.7 2.7 2134 424 3580 1814 1766 654 5.5

Dhaks 15294 21317 26249 13632 12616 4643 5.7 3 30542 850 33593 17460 16133 6377 5.3Jamelpur 1449 2059 2445 1241 1204 452 5.4 2.5 2783 718 3085 1578 1507 643 4.8Mymensingh 4083 5508 6543 3355 3188 1208 5.4 2.5 7449 674 8035 4090 3945 1565 5.1 nTangail 1487 2078 2444 1243 1200 420 5.8 2.3 2767 721 3044 1545 1500 586 5.2 0Dhaks 5096 7612 10049 5376 4673 1705 5.9 4.0 12151 1347 13817 7397 6420 2544 5.4 S

Fsridpur 3179 4060 4768 2417 2351 858 5.6 2.3 5393 690 5612 2850 2762 1039 5.4

Chittagong 13630 18635 22565 11597 10968 3892 5.8 2.8 25996 504 28811 14752 14059 4950 5.8Syht 3490 4759 5650 2897 2753 966 5.8 2.5 6430 456 7052 3588 3464 1184 6.0Cornil 4389 5819 6880 3481 3399 1203 5.7 2.4 7811 1025 8652 4361 4291 1485 5.8Noekhali 2383 3234 3813 1899 1914 680 5.6 2.4 4322 570 4884 2435 2449 853 5.7Chittagong 2983 4315 5476 2913 2563 906 6.0 3.5 6474 759 7195 3814 3381 1225 5.9Chittagong H.T. 385 508 746 407 339 137 5.4 5.6 959 57 1028 554 473 202 5.1

TOTAL 50841 71479 87051 44849 42201 15135 5.8 2.9 100592 605 109877 56500 53377 20187 5.4

*/ District wise population of Bangladesh ladjusted). Supplement No. 1 to the Preliminary Report on Population Census. June 1992.

Note: Data shown represent actual census results, not adjusted for probable undercounting.The adjusted 1981 Census estimate of total populaton is 89.940.000 for the Census date of March 8. 1981.

Source: Brngladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 1.3VITAL POPULATION STATISTICS

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993(P)

CRUDE DEATH RATE [per thousand)

National 11.5 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.0 11.0 9.2Rural 12.2 12.8 13.2 12.9 12.9 12.3 11.8 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3 9.8Urban 7.2 6.9 7.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.9 7.3 7.5 7.2

INFANT MORTALITY RATES [per thousand]

National 111.5 121.9 117.5 121.8 112.0 116.0 113.0 110.0 98.0 94.0 90.6 88.0 54.0Rural 112.5 123.2 120.8 122.0 113.0 118.0 115.0 112.0 105.0 97.0 94.4 91.0 33.0Urban 99.4 103.0 98.8 119.5 99.0 101.0 95.0 91.0 84.0 71.0 69.3 65.0 61.0

Male 113.4 124.1 118.8 113.5 114.2 122.0 120.0 116.0 102.0 98.0 94.4 90.0 57.0Female 109.4 119.4 116.0 109.3 109.0 111.0 105.0 105.0 95.0 91.6 86.8 86.0 31.0

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years]

National 54.8 54.5 53.9 54.8 55.1 55.2 56.4 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.1 56.3 57.0Rural 54.3 53.9 53.1 54.4 54.7 54.8 56.1 55.4 55.0 55.4 55.8 56.0 56.9Urban 60.1 60.6 60.3 58.7 60.1 58.8 60.0 60.9 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.5 60.6

Male 55.3 54.4 54.2 54.9 55.7 55.2 55.6 57.0 56.0 56.3 56.5 56.8 57.2Female 54.4 54.8 53.6 54.7 54.6 55.9 54.9 56.0 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.9 56.3

CRUDE BIRTH RATE [per thousand)

National 34.6 34.8 35.0 34.8 34.6 34.4 33.3 33.2 33.0 32.8 31.6 30.8 28.4Rural 35.7 36.9 36.4 36.1 35.3 35.4 34.6 34.5 34.2 34.3 32.9 32.6 30.0Urban 24.8 22.9 27.1 25.0 28.0 25.9 24.8 24.9 24.3 24.6 23.9 23.4 22.1

FFERTILITY RATE [per woman]

National 5.04 5.21 5.07 4.83 4.71 4.70 4.41 4.43 4.24 4.33 4.23 4.18 4.18Rural 5.28 5.50 5.36 5.08 4.91 4.89 4.64 4.59 4.58 4.57 4.48 4.33 4.33Urban 3.20 3.01 3.45 3.10 3.52 3.26 3.05 2.84 2.92 2.95 2.88 2.88 2.88

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Tai. 1.4COMPARISON OF CHILD NUTFITIONAL STATUS RESULTS FROM THREE NATIONAL SURVEYS

Idicator INFS, 1975-76 INFS. 1981-82 BBS, 1985-86 HKI,1982-83 HKI, AUGUST 1990 BBS, 1985-86 BBS 1989-90 BBS 1992

(Weightedc) (Woightd) (Wehd (Weighted

Clhoric matrltlon a/ 73.7% 57.3% 56.1 % (Ntional - 49.5% (Ntionad 56.1 % (ational) 51.1 % (National) 45.7% (National)57.6% (Run* 42.00% (Ral) 48.8% ((b,al) 57.6% (Rual 52.2% (Rul) 46.8% (Rura)

44.2% (Urban) - 51.2% (Urban 44.2% (Urban 44.3% (Urbon) 37.5% (Urba

(Weghted) (Woighted) (Weighted) (Woid

Acute ruwtrition a/ 21.6% 20.0% 8.1 % (National) - 11.3% (Natina) S.1 % (Nationa 8.6% (National) 7.0% (National)8.2% (Rura) 6.0% (RurAl 10.9% (Rural) 8.2% (fRura 8.8% (Rural 7.2% (Rurwl

6.9% (Urban) - 12.1% (Urban) 6.9% (Urban) 7.3% (Urban 5.5% (Urban

Defiitions of:Chroic m _lrtntion < 90% medion < 90% median < 90% median < 90% modin < 90% median < 90% median < 90% median < 90% medin

height for age height for age height for ae height for a" height for age height or age height (or age height for a*p

Acute malrwtrton < 80% median < 80% nedin < 80% dian < 80% modn < 80% median < 80% median < 80% median < 0% edianwegt fow heih weigt for height wveght for height weight for height veigh for height weight for heigt eig for ight wght for height

also 2sd from medianheightfor agp & weiht

for hiht.

Actual same size 430 croa-aectional 510 croaa-sactional 3283 urban nd rua Rural aub-se 2800 1900 urban and 4590 3283 urban and rural 2356 uban and nrral 2110 urban & rural Lcrosas-ational; four cros aecbonol. rurl chdren b/ cross-aectional; four croctonal; four N.A.

data collection data coltction dat colectionbw0f F. '~d.pa

Age rag 0-59 onxir 0.59 months 6-71 monxts 3-71 monti. 6-59 monew 6-71 ronthu 6-71 mont N.A.

Plefrnce standard ued Havard Harvad NCHS NCHS NCHS NCHS NCHS NCHS

Popurstlon co- bIra Rural Urban and mrr Urban and nrual Urban skim and na Urban nd Rural Urban and rr Urban and nea

IFS =butbut of NutuWion rnd Food Scia, Dha Uniety.NS- _ dl Buiimiu of Stffdcs. Ndtl Nutrltion Survey nd Household

E p Survey.HKI - Hobn Kelr bewnstioref/a Stew p. t tra among total popuatkwnlb UtIbn won kckd tbe k oru ndy a nxd r r Includ de_tar prr woon only.Not: The 9FS B"ay ud t Harvrd Stadrd m thew bwration referece

etandad for pIt n otdgrowd daa d 888 aud NCHS rw.SonoverIaninimbitlti stahL1 wa-d be coured for byfthl difts wad. Rbem variation dui to a S' _a ueed by WINS m mareEaty to accoLar tor the differ in nu*uional steA Ia by thetfl- ataveyi The BII su mp _ w_ Ida- kEo four dhta tour d 1cnpenods ovr a Vara tOme whN FS aruwt cdactad dae once diwing

Saxur mmiad.h Be-ee of StMltiaL

Table 1.5HEALTH STATISTICS

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Hospitals (number)

Government 512 544 560 568 596 600 608 608 608 608 610 611

Private 164 164 164 164 164 164 267 267 267 267 280 280

Hospital Beds (number) 23792 23907 25057 26641 27645 28077 33138 33334 33376 33376 34353 34603

Government Dispensaries & Hospitals 19021 19136 20286 21870 22874 23306 26575 26871 26913 26913 27111 27361

Private 4771 4771 4771 4771 4771 4771 6563 6463 6463 6463 7242 7242

Registered Doctors (number) 10065 10333 11496 13500 14591 16090 16929 17475 18323 19387 21004 21749

Registered Nurses & Midwives (number) 5975 7434 8588 9650 10817 12111 12837 13944 15091 15036 17368 19970

Public Expenditure (Tk million) a/

Revenue 805 936 875 1387 1826 1929 2493 2996 3215 3613 3968 4323

ADP 703 1147 1506 1468 671 1757 1402 1701 2297 2626 3237 3934

Total Expenditures as % of GDP a/ 0.43 0.58 0.64 0.72 0.61 0.87 0.88 1.03 1.18 1.25 1.40 0.90

Per Capita Expenditure ITk) a/ 16.77 22.74 25.47 29.90 25.61 37.08 38.37 45.43 52.25 58.03 65.8 74.1

a/ Fiscal year data, revised estimate.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 1.6FAMILY PLANNING STATISTICS[thousands]

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987!88 1988/89 1989/90 1990!91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Voluntary SterilizationsTubectomies 235.08 274.84 336.50 232 39 116.42 140.63 97.17 130.94 141.95 97.40 92.13 63.20 49.13Vasectomies 67.82 88.32 215.67 259.21 151.13 209.93 99.89 100.03 83.11 67.90 69.15 50.46 71.23

Total 302.91 363 16 552.17 491.60 267.55 350.56 197.06 230.97 225.06 165.30 161.28 113.66 120.36

Delivery of Contraceptive DevicesIUDs 83.67 117.74 303.34 432.45 367.67 420.34 379.13 361.70 365.62 274.23 269.57 261.77 335.84Pills (cycles) 7751 8258 9726 11553 12137 15023 19100 24620 34346 42704 46629 63920 67548Condoms (doz.) 93230 116821 131096 151940 135907 149236 166436 181976 198023 133798 159514 224134 208303EMKO 63.55 69.63 64.25 71.98 46.42 39.31 14.78 10.12 4.03 4.67 2.17 0.77 3.88Injections 81.07 72.70 122.46 165.93 216.49 314.75 392.00 604.70 1257.58 1689.11 2254.78 2561.16 3533.64Foam tablets 4126 5404 4385 3222 3125 3463 3890 4100 1547 25174 9258 1778 14.41

COUPLE-YEARS OF PROTECTION [thousands]

By Sterilization a/Tubectomies 705 909 1155 1272 1261 1276 1245 1252 1269 1240 1208 1150 1098Vasectomies 355 408 583 784 857 981 983 984 969 940 915 874 837

Total 1060 1317 1738 2055 2118 2257 2228 2236 2238 2179 2123 2024 1935 ,

With Contraceptive Devices b/IUDsc/ 169 236 469 760 900 1050 1114 1142 1165 1090 1032 984 1025Pills 517 551 648 770 809 1002 1273 1641 2290 2847 3109 4261 4503Condoms 622 779 874 1013 906 995 1108 1213 1320 892 1063 1494 1389EMKO 16 17 16 18 12 10 4 3 1 1 1 0 1Injections 20 18 31 41 54 79 97 150 314 422 564 640 883Foam tablets 28 36 29 21 21 23 26 27 10 168 62 12 1

Total 1371 1637 2067 2625 2702 3159 3622 4175 5099 5420 5830 7392 7801

Total 2404 2918 3775 4680 4820 5416 5850 6411 7337 7599 7953 9416 9736

Married Females Aged 15-49 d/ 16629 17179 17746 18332 18937 19562 20208 20875 21565 19946 20590

Apparent Contraceptive Rate e/ 14.5 17.0 21.3 25.5 25.5 27.7 28.9 30.7 34.0 38.1 38.6 - 44.6

a/ Cumulative, assuming year-to-year carry-over of 90%.b/ Assuming one couple-year of protection per 15 cycles of pills, 150 condoms

or foam tablets, or 4 doses of injectables or vials of EMKO.c/ Cumulative, assuming year-to-year carry-over of 70%.d/ Staff estimates based on age-specific marriage rates from 1981 census.e/ Couple-years of protection per married female aged 15-49.

Sources: MIS, Directorate of Family Planning, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, and staff estimates.

Table 1.7DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES(in million)

1984/85 1985/86 1989 1990

Male Female TotaMalale Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

1. NationalPopulation aged 10 years and above 34.30 33.10 67.40 36.00 34.40 70.40 36.70 34.10 70.80 39.00 34.50 73.50Economic participation:

Civilian labor force 26.80 2.70 29.50 27.70 3.20 30.90 29.70 21.00 50.70 31.10 20.10 51.20- Employed 26.40 2.60 29.00 27.40 3.10 30.50 29.40 20.70 50.10 30.40 19.70 50.10

- Unemployed 0.40 0.20 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.20 0.60 0.60 0.40 1.00

Other 7.50 30.20 37.80 8.40 31.00 39.20 6.80 13.30 20.10 7.90 14.50 22.40

- Household work 0.10 24.70 24.80 0.00 24.90 24.90 6.80 13.30 20.10 0.10 9.60 9.70

- Inactive 7.40 5.50 13.00 8.40 6.10 14.30 .. .. .. 7.80 4.90 12.70

Children (Oto 9 years) 15.50 14.90 30.40 15.69 15.61 31.30 19.10 18.20 37.30 18.00 17.50 35.502. Rural

Population aged 10 years and above 29.40 29.00 58.40 30.70 30.00 60.70 31.00 28.90 59.90 30.30 27.70 58.00Economic participation:

Civilian labor force 23.20 2.20 25.40 23.60 2.60 26.20 25.60 19.50 45.10 24.50 18.00 42.50

- Employed 22.90 2.10 25.00 23.40 2.50 25.90 25.30 19.30 44.60 24.00 17.70 41.70 U

- Unemployed 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.30 0.30 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.80

Other 6.40 26.70 33.00 6.90 27.50 34.30 5.10 9.30 14.40 5.80 9.70 15.50- Household work 0.10 22.10 22.20 0.00 22.40 22.40 .. .. .. 0.10 6.40 6.50

- Inactive 6.30 4.60 10.80 6.90 5.10 11.90 5.10 9.30 14.40 5.70 3.30 9.00

Children (O to 9 years) 13.60 13.20 26.80 13.50 13.50 27.10 16.60 15.80 32.40 14.60 14.40 29.003. Urban

Population aged 10 years and above 4.90 3.90 8.80 5.40 4.20 9.60 5.80 5.10 10.90 8.70 6.80 15.50Economic participation:

Civilian labor force 3.70 0.40 4.10 4.00 0.60 4.70 4.20 1.50 5.70 6.60 2.10 8.70

- Employed 3.60 0.40 4.00 4.00 0.60 4.60 4.10 1.40 5.50 6.50 2.00 8.50

- Unemployed 0 10 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 0 10 0.10 0.20

Other 1.20 3.40 4.70 1.30 3.60 4.90 1.60 4.00 5.60 2.10 4.80 6.90- Household work 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 .. .. .. 0.10 3.10 3.20

- Inactive 1.20 0.90 2.20 1.30 1.10 2.40 1.60 4.00 5.60 2.00 1.70 3.70

Children ( 0 to 9 years) 1.90 1.80 3.70 2.00 2.20 4.20 2.50 2.40 4.90 3.40 3.10 6.50

.. Not available separately.

Source: LFS 1984/85, 1985/86 and 1989, 1990 BBs

Table 1.8EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION AND BY SEX a/(thousands)

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1989

Occupation Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Professional & Technical 623 78 701 554 82 636 878 112 990 1129 340 1469

Administrative 182 3 185 218 4 222 281 4 285 149 8 157

Clerical 639 40 679 810 139 949 816 101 917 897 74 971

Sales 2876 134 3010 3246 112 3358 3417 128 3545 3584 122 3706

Services 916 117 2033 781 1151 1932 769 1215 1984 783 679 1462

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishe 16213 216 16429 16474 238 16712 17123 355 17478 18251 18755 37006

Production &Transport 3795 771 4566 4116 763 4879 3966 1109 5075 4589 781 5370

NEC 303 69 372 231 58 289 194 94 288 4 3 7

Total 25547 2428 27975 26430 2547 28977 27444 3118 30562 29386 20762 50148

a/ Labor force includes population above 10 years of age.

Source: LFS 1983/84, 1984/85, 1985/86 and 1989 BBS.

- 57 -

Table 1.9INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY INDICATORS a/

1973/74 1981/82 1983/84 1985/86 1988/89 1991/92

(p)

I. Income Distribution:

Percent of income accruing to:Bottom 40% - Rural 19.10 18.82 19.24 19.95 18.02 17.89

Urban 17.80 16.07 17.84 19.20 17.52 17.59National 18.30 17.36 18.95 19.35 17.53 17.41

Lower middle 40% - Rural 38.40 38.77 38.06 36.21 36.80 38.36Urban 38.00 36.02 37.91 37.87 35.74 36.34National - 37.32 37.67 35.80 36.28 37.72

Upper middle 15% - Rural 26.50 25.64 24.56 22.48 25.37 25.95Urban 25.60 27.02 27.32 24.89 26.72 26.65National 65.30 26.37 25.08 23.50 25.68 26.02

Top 5% -Rural 16.00 16.78 18.14 21.36 19.81 17.80Urban 18.60 20.89 16.93 18.04 20.02 19.42National 16.40 18.95 18.30 21.35 20.51 18.85

Gini Coefficient - Rural 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.36Urban 0.38 0.41 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.40National 0.36 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39

II. Poverty Incidence:

Percent of population with dailycalorie intake per person below:2122 calories - Rural 93.03 74.00 56.97 51.04 47.80 47.61

Urban 81.16 65.98 66.36 56.00 47.73 46.58National 91.84 73.15 58.05 51.66 47.79 47.47

1805 calories - Rural 49.76 52.37 37.94 22.06 29.52 28.27Urban 28.99 30.93 35.51 19.20 20.45 26.03National 47.67 50.11 37.66 21.70 28.37 27.97

Numbers of people with daily calorieintake per person below Imillions):2122 calories - Rural 57.40 60.90 47.00 44.20 43.40 44.80

Urban 5.60 6.40 7.10 7.00 6.30 6.80National 63.00 67.30 54.10 51.20 49.70 51.60

1805 calories - Rural 30.70 43.10 31.30 19.10 26.80 26.60Urban 2.00 3.00 3.80 2.40 2.70 3.80National 32.70 46.10 35.10 21.50 29.50 30.40

Total population - Rural 61.70 82.30 82.50 86.60 90.80 b/ 94.10Urban 6.90 9.70 10.70 12.50 13.20 b/ 14.60National 68.60 92.00 93.20 99.10 104.00 b/ 108.70

a/ Intertemporal comparisons of poverty incidence is complicated by changes inmethodology between the various rounds of survey.b/ The derived total population is inconsistent with those in the HES (FY89, p.47) which

Indicate a total population of 104 million of which 90.8 million in rural and13.2 in urban. The latter will, however, result in poverty incidence indicatorssubstantially different from the HES estimates.

Source: BBS, Household Expenditure Surveys.

- 58 -

Table 1.10SCHOOL ArTENDANCE AND ADULT LITERACY RATE, 1991

Age Group___________________________

5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24

A. School Attendance /a

BANGLADESHBoth 41.0 54.2 28.4 9.9Male 42.3 56.0 35.8 16.6Female 40.0 52.3 20.7 4.1

RURALBoth 39.2 52.1 25.5 7.8Male 40.6 54.0 33.8 14.4Female 37.7 49.8 17.0 2.5

URBANBoth 49.9 62.8 38.2 16.3Male 50.8 64.0 42.6 22.5Female 48.9 61.4 33.6 9.7

B. Adult Literacy Rate

National 35.32Rural 31.12Urban 54.43Male 44.31Female 18.57

/a School attendance of population 5-24 years of age.Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 2.1GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES(Taka Millon)

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94(P1

Agriculture 148403 169970 188382 219761 231623 245392 271790 300596 312438 288842 314945Crops 120009 135031 139489 164975 167646 176467 194211 217823 222451 184660 197258Forestry 10947 10948 18981 20544 25374 24187 26529 28639 31005 32442 33957Livestock 8053 11785 15401 16222 17875 21266 25300 26564 28115 31613 35325Fisheries 9394 12206 14511 18020 20728 23472 25750 27570 30867 40127 48405

Industry 57771 64982 72337 80019 89639 101593 116529 131375 150306 165888 183753Mining and Quarrying /a 4 4 3 4 3 4 89 112 134 160 190Manufacturing 37733 40112 43563 47631 50437 55608 64506 72801 82571 92009 102822Large Scale 20543 21282 23380 26911 28517 31414 37565 42259 49347 57087 66078Small Scale 17190 18830 20183 20720 21920 24194 26941 30542 33224 34922 36744Construction 18095 22518 26058 28839 34602 39262 43110 47261 53590 56717 60134Power, Gas Water andSanitaryServices 1939 2348 2713 3545 4597 6719 8824 11201 14011 17002 20607

Services 146342 171981 205508 239421 275874 312613 349252 402421 443758 493166 536766 OTransport, Storage and 41797 45655 54605 61901 65945 71774 75061 97697 108672 122466 129221Trade Services 30813 38816 41505 45883 50396 55015 61583 68279 73766 78306 82213Housing Services 28558 32444 37066 40988 49982 59866 66358 73867 79055 87209 96837Public Admn. & Defense 8934 13235 17366 20867 24735 29203 32764 38191 43406 49210 55148BankigandInsurance 5152 6889 8935 10116 11435 13126 15110 16299 17793 19607 21395Professional and Misc.Services 31088 34942 46031 59666 73381 83629 98376 108088 121066 136368 151952

GDPat Market Prices 352516 406933 466227 539201 597136 659598 737571 834392 906502 947896 1035464Growth Rate (%) 20.14 15.44 14.57 15.65 10.74 10.46 11.82 13.13 8.64 4.5 9.2

Indirect Taxes - Subsidies .. 21794 25516 30082 32695 37601 41807 50070 57492 65589 73150

GDP at Factor Cost .. 385139 440711 509119 564441 621997 695764 784322 849010 882307 962314

in Due to variation h coverage, the figures may not be comparable for the previous period.FY93 Figure are prellrliary.

Source: Bngadeh Bureau of Statities.

Tabbe 2.2GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT (1984/85) PRICES.(Taks MiNion)

1982183 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94(P)

Agriculture 160278 168264 169970 175549 176250 174901 173037 190354 193421 197662 201230 204769Crops 127784 133921 135031 139599 139596 137119 134509 150828 152575 155101 156392 157203Forestry 10791 11801 10948 11413 11168 12038 12309 12586 12845 13147 13536 13937Livestock 10006 10507 11785 12131 12801 12922 13348 13805 14102 14615 15522 16484Fisheries 11697 12035 12206 12406 12685 12822 12871 13135 13899 14799 15780 17145

Industry 56696 63049 64982 66709 72093 75902 79568 84632 88294 94558 102105 110777Mining and Quarrying/a 3 4 4 3 4 2 3 66 80 94 107 121Manufacturing 37921 40765 40112 41156 44403 44682 45927 49256 50423 54117 59033 64518Large Scale 19537 22134 21282 22088 25087 25263 25945 28095 29269 32342 36627 41462SmallScale 18384 18631 18830 19068 19316 19419 19982 20561 21154 21775 22406 23056Construction 16711 20072 22518 22908 24469 27475 28816 29749 31087 32471 34032 35918Power, Gas Water andSanitary Services 2061 2208 2348 2642 3217 3743 4822 5561 6704 7876 8933 10220

Services 156442 160225 171981 182335 194004 204332 213998 222541 232727 243969 256884 270504Transport, Storage and 41742 43508 45655 47115 52341 54293 56611 59024 60840 63349 66416 69604Trade Services 36692 36093 38816 39389 40394 41675 43663 44965 46707 48561 50631 52909Housing Services 30489 31413 32444 33435 34534 35645 36811 38030 39316 40656 42187 43577Public Admn. & Defense 10726 9984 13235 15944 17191 18553 19839 20363 22334 24184 26240 28540Banking and Insurance 5551 5867 6889 8700 9180 9312 9417 9523 9755 10002 10302 10611Professional and Misc. 31242 33360 34942 37752 40364 44854 47657 50636 53775 57217 61108 65263

GDP at Market Prices 373416 391538 406933 424593 442347 455135 466603 497527 514442 536189 560219 586050Growth Rate (%) 4.7 4.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 2.9 2.5 6.6 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.6

Indirect Taxes - Subsidies .. .. 21794 23496 24657 24958 26667 28200 30907 34019 38764 41400.0

GDP at Factor Cost .. .. 385139 401097 417690 430177 439936 469327 483535 502170 521455 544650

/a Due to variation in coverage, the figures may not be comparable for the previous period.FY93 Figurs are preiminary.

Source: Bongadesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 2.3GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, SECTORAL DEFLATORS,(1984/85 = 100)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Agriculture 72.64 88.20 100.00 107.31 124.69 132.43 141.81 142.78 155.41 158.07 143.54 153.81

Crops 74.40 89.61 100.00 99.92 118.18 122.26 131.19 128.76 142.76 143.42 118.08 125.48

Forestry 71.03 92.76 100.00 166.31 183.95 210.78 196.50 210.78 222.96 235.83 239.67 243.65

Livestock 67.37 76.64 100.00 126.96 126.72 138.33 159.32 183.27 188.37 192.37 203.67 214.30

Fisheries 59.34 78.06 100.00 116.97 142.06 161.66 182.36 196.04 198.36 208.57 254.29 282.33

Industry 87.14 91.63 100.00 108.44 110.99 118.10 127.68 137.69 148.79 158.96 162.47 165.88

Mining and Quarrying 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 150.00 133.33 134.85 140.00 142.55 149.53 157.02

Manufacturing 86.39 92.56 100.00 105.85 107.27 112.88 121.08 130.96 144.38 152.58 155.86 159.37

LargeScale 86.03 92.81 100.00 105.85 107.27 112.88 121.08 133.71 144.38 152.58 155.86 159.37

SmallScale 86.77 92.27 100.00 105.85 107.27 112.88 121.08 131.03 144.38 152.58 155.86 159.37

Construction 89.93 90.15 100.00 113.75 117.86 125.94 136.25 144.91 152.03 165.04 166.66 167.42Power, Gas Water and

Sanitary Services 78.21 87.82 100.00 102.69 110.20 122.82 139.34 158.68 167.08 177.89 190.33 201.63 O\

Services 81.57 91.34 100.00 112.71 123.41 135.01 146.08 156.94 172.92 181.89 191.98 198.43

Transport,Storageand 95.51 96.07 100.00 115.90 118.26 121.46 126.78 127.17 160.58 171.54 184.39 185.65

Trade Services 73.45 85.37 100.00 105.37 113.59 120.93 126.00 136.96 146.19 151.90 154.66 155.39

Housing Services 73.00 90.91 100.00 110.86 118.69 140.22 162.63 174.49 187.88 194.45 206.72 222.22

Public Admn. & Defense 81.42 89.48 100.00 108.92 121.38 133.32 147.20 160.90 171.00 179.48 187.54 193.23

Banking and Insurance 78.20 87.81 100.00 102.70 110.20 122.80 139.39 158.67 167.08 177.89 190.32 201.63

Professional and Misc.Services 81.49 93.19 100.00 121.93 147.82 163.60 175.48 194.28 201.00 211.59 223.16 232.83

GDP at Market Price 78.58 90.03 100.00 109.81 121.90 131.20 141.36 148.25 162.19 169.06 169.20 176.69

Overall Inflation Rate 1%) 14.6 11.1 9.8 11.0 7.6 7.7 4.9 9.4 4.2 0.1 4.4

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 2.4GDP GROWTH AT CONSTANT (11984/85) PRICES(In Percentage)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

(P)

Agriculture 4.4 5.0 1.0 3.3 0.4 -0.8 -1.1 7.7 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.8Crops 4.2 4.8 0.8 3.4 0.0 -1.8 -1.9 9.2 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.5Forestry 6 1 9.4 -7.2 4.2 -2.1 7.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.0Livestock 2.7 5.0 12.2 2.9 5.5 0.9 3.3 3.4 2.2 3.6 6.2 6.2Fisheries 7.2 2.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 2.1 5.8 6.5 6.6 8.7

Industry 1.5 11.2 3.1 2.7 8.1 5.3 4.8 6.4 4.3 7.1 8.0 8.5Mining and Quarrying/a .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 13.8 13.1Manufacturing 1.9 7.5 -1.6 2.6 7.9 0.6 2.8 7.2 2.4 7.3 9.1 9.3Large Scale 2.6 13.3 -3.8 3.8 13.6 0.7 2.7 8.3 4.2 10.5 13.3 13.2Small Scale 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9Construction -3.4 20.1 12.2 1.7 6.8 12.3 4.9 3.2 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.5Power, Gas Water andSanitary Services 53 0 7.1 6.3 12.5 21.8 16.4 28.8 15.3 20.6 17.5 13.4 14.4

Services 6.2 2.4 7.3 6.0 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.3Transport, Storage and 7.2 4.2 4.9 3.2 11.1 3.7 4.3 4.3 3.1 4.1 4.8 4.8Trade Services 5.2 -1.6 7.5 1.5 2.6 3.2 4.8 3.0 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5Housing Services 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.3Public Admn. & Defense 22.5 -6.9 32.6 20.5 7.8 7.9 6.9 2.6 9.7 8.3 8.5 8.8Banking and Insurance -5.7 5.7 17.4 26.3 5.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0Professional and Misc.

Services 6.5 6.8 4.7 8.0 6.9 11.1 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.8 6.8

GDP at ConstantMarket Price 4.7 4.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 2.9 2.5 6.6 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.6

P = Provisional estimate

Source: Derived from Table 2.2, compiled by the Banglaesh Bureau of Statistics

- 63 -

Table 2.5GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BYEXPENDITURE IN CURRENT PRICES(Tk Million)

1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

NetResourcesa/ 512371 587472 652301 727201 810691 894159 960014 1028558

Consumption b/ 453925 517982 577995 642180 717173 799936 853569 886373Private b/ 395489 456737 508026 551725 614255 685204 728632 754798

Publicc/ 58436 61245 69969 90455 103218 114732 124937 131575

Investment cl 58446 69490 74306 85191 94427 95955 109851 130848Private b/ 29229 33404 38290 42891 47275 48562 60063 71804Public c/ 29217 36086 36016 42300 47152 47393 49788 59044

Resource Balance 46144 48271 55165 67603 73120 59767 53512 59754

Exports of goods and NFS, fob d/ 31168 39843 46438 51361 62683 75347 94110 113743

Imports of goods and NFS, c&f d/ 77312 88115 101603 118964 135803 135114 147622 173498

Gross Domestic Product, at market prices c/ 466227 539201 597136 659598 737571 834392 906502 947896Net factor incomefrom Abroad c/ 14271 18669 20466 23381 22363 26522 33810 38822

Gross National Productat Market Prices 480498 557870 617602 682979 759934 860914 940312 1007626

Net Indirect taxes c/ 25516 30082 32695 37601 41807 50070 57492 65589

Gross National ProductatFactorCost 454982 527788 584907 645378 718127 810844 882820 921105

Gross Domestic Savings e/ 12302 21219 19141 17418 20398 34456 52933 61523

Gross National Savings f/ 26572 39888 39607 40799 42761 60978 86743 100345Foreign Savings g/ 31874 29602 34698 44222 50749 33245 19702 20932

MEMO ITEMS(% of GDPIConsumption 97.36 96.06 96.79 97.36 97.27 95.88 94.16 93.51

Private 84.83 84.71 85.08 83.65 83.28 82.13 80.38 79.63

Public 12.53 11.36 11.72 13.71 13.99 13.75 13.78 13.88

Investment 12.54 12.89 12.44 12.92 12.80 11.50 12.12 13.80Private 6.27 6.20 6.41 6.50 6.41 5.82 6.63 7.57

Public 6.27 6.69 6.03 6.41 6.39 5.68 5.49 6.23Exports of goodsand NFS,fob 6.69 7.39 7.78 7.79 8.50 9.03 10.38 11.74Imports of goodsand NFS, c & f 16.58 16.34 17.01 18.04 18.41 16.19 16.28 17.91

Gross Domestic Savings 2.64 3.94 3.21 2.64 2.77 4.13 5.84 6.49

Gross National Savings 5.70 7.40 6.63 6.19 5.80 7.31 9.57 10.59

Foreign Savings 6.84 5.49 5.81 6.70 6.88 3.98 2.17 2.16

a/ Consumption plus Investment.b/ Derived as residual.c/ BBS data.d/ From Balance of Payments table 3.1 converted into taka by using average exchange rate.e/ GDPimp)-Consumption = GDI-Net Imports.f/ GDS +Net Factor Income from Abroad.g/ Current Account Deficit of the Balance of Payments.

Source: BBS and Staff estimates.

- 64 -

Table 3.1BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1980/81-1989/90

(US$ millions)

1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94(P)

Merchandise exports, fob a/ 1074 1231 1291 1524 1718 1993 2383 2534Merchandise imports, fob/c&f bl -2620 -2986 -3390 -3791 -3510 -3526 -4071 -4191

Trade Balance -1546 -1755 -2099 -2267 -1792 -1533 -1688 -1657

Non-factor services, net -29 -11 -14 14 75 68 76 21Non-factor services, receipts 227 255 312 379 394 474 523 523

i Other transport) 22 27 32 36 34 37 38 41i Travel) 14 10 17 20 17 25 32 206 Government services, n.e.i.) 29 39 51 92 96 78 99 114(- Other) 162 179 212 232 247 334 354 348

Non-factor services, payments -256 -266 -326 -365 -319 -406 -447 -502I- Other transport) -43 -41 -52 -63 -73 -102 -107 -129I- Travel) -48 -77 -114 -112 -61 -109 -126 -153I- Government services, n.e.i.l -110 -106 -115 -138 -141 -142 -149 -1601- Other) -55 -41 -46 -52 -44 -53 -65 -60

Investment income, net -122 -133 -109 -122 -102 -88 -73 -31Investment income, receipts 35 55 78 67 65 91 94 147

1- Interest on reserves /b) 30 41 67 41 52 61 49 831- Other interest & investment income) 5 14 11 26 13 30 45 64

Investment income, payments -157 -188 -187 -189 -167 -179 -167 -178I- Interest on external public M&LT debt) -82 -123 -139 -131 -129 -137 -144 -137I- IMF service charges) -39 -39 -43 -48 -33 -35 -11 -7i- Other interest & investment income) -36 -26 -5 -10 -5 -7 -12 -34

Private unrequited transfers, net 731 788 836 802 846 975 1067 1247Receipts 731 788 836 802 846 975 1067 1247Workers Remittences 696 737 771 761 764 848 944 1089Others 35 51 65 41 82 127 123 158Payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Current Account Balance -966 -1111 -1387 -1573 -973 -578 -618 -420

Amortization of public M&LT debt -154 -166 -170 -186 -197 -210 -239 -264

Total IMF transactions, net 134 -18 68 -164 4 85 2 -70

Aid disbursements, total 1595 1640 1669 1810 1733 1611 1675 1559

Other long-term capital, net -8 -7 44 0 1 0 6 58I- Direct & portfolio investment, netl 2 3 2 3 2 10 16 69I Subscriptions to int'l non-monetary orgs) -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 01- Other, net) -7 -8 42 -3 0 -10 -9 -11

Short-term capital, net -140 -160 -139 -131 -144 -106 -162 -62i- Resident official sector, net) -10 -5 4 0 0 -1 1 0I- Deposit money banks, net) -70 -97 -144 -38 -40 -18 -3 4( Other, net) -60 -57 - -93 -104 -87 -160 -66

Liabilities constituting foreign authorities'reserves, net -40 -40 0 0 0 0

Food borrowing, net -96 6 43 -21 -21 -19 -8 -11I- Food Borrowing, gross) 0 39 55 0 0 0 0 0I- Food Loan Amortization) -96 -33 -12 -21 -21 -19 -8 -11

Errors & ommissions, net ct -69 -2 -72 -144 -62 -69 -138 -165Change in reserves d/t-=increase) -257 -145 -65 377 -381 -713 -518 -625

MEMORANDUM ITEMS:Reserve level, end of June 1US$ m) 752 897 962 585 966 1679 2197 2822-Reserves, excluding gold (US$ m) 729 873 941 585 943 1657 2171 2795-Gold, national valuation (US$ m) 23 24 21 20 23 22 26 27Average annual exchange rate (Tk/US$) 30.635 31.246 32.143 32.932 35.667 38.152 39.140 40.000

--not available separatelya/ Exports and imports include that of EPZ since 1987/88b/ Merchandise imports are reported on a mixed valuation basis, partly fob and partly cif and exclude EPZcJ Including valuation changes and ACU account changes other than those of reserves.df Including changes in the valuation of reserves.1993 Figures are preliminary estimates.

Source: Bangladesh Bank

Table 3.2BALANCE OF PAYMENTS - REQUIREMENTS AND SOURCES FORMAT(US$ mllions)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

FOREIGN EXCHANGE REQUIREMENTS

CURRENT ACCOUNTMerchandise imports 2309 2353 2647 2364 2620 2986 3390 3791 3510 3526 4071 4191

Payments on investments 135 121 148 145 157 188 187 190 168 180 167 178

Non-factor services 208 191 217 223 256 266 326 365 318 406 446 502

Subtotal 2652 2665 3011 2732 3033 3440 3904 4345 3996 4112 4684 4871

CAPITAL ACCOUNTPublicM&LTdebtamortization 74 72 110 117 154 166 170 186 197 210 239 264

Foodloanamortization 0 60 99 82 96 33 12 21 21 19 8 11

Long-term capital, ret 0 8 3 5 7 7 44 0 -1 0 -6 -58

Short-term capital, net 36 -65 35 -10 140 160 139 131 144 106 162 62

Subtotal 110 75 247 194 397 365 278 338 361 335 403 279

TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 2762 2740 3258 2926 3430 3805 4181 4683 4357 4447 5087 5150

FOREIGN EXCHANGE SOURCES

CURRENT ACCOUNT °8

Merchandise exports 686 811 934 819 1074 1231 1291 1524 1718 1993 2383 2534

Remittances 628 627 476 586 731 788 836 802 846 975 1067 1247

Investment income 27 57 58 36 35 55 79 67 65 91 94 147

Non-factor services 203 222 228 224 227 255 312 379 395 474 523 523

Subtotal 1544 1717 1696 1665 2066.8 2329.1 2517.7 2772.2 3023.6 3532.6 4066.8 4451

CAPITAL ACCOUNTAid disbursme nts 1346 1268 1267 1306 1595 1640 1669 1810 1733 1611 1675 1559

IMFtransactions,net 47 19 -7 -28 134 -18 68 -164 4 85 2 -70

Food borrowing, gross 0 51 190 13 0 39 55 0 0 0 0 0

Other -6 -96 -30 0 -40 -40 0 0 0 0 0 0

Subtotal 1386 1242 1420 1291 1689 1621 1792 1646 1737 1696 1677 1489

TOTAL SOURCES 2930 2959 3116 2956 3756 3950 4309 4418 4760 5229 5744 5940

Increase i gross reserves 235 160 -147 100 257 144 66 -377 381 712.6 518.9 625

Errors and omissions -67 37 5 -70 69 2 72 144 62 69 138 165

Source:Bangladesh Bank. Statistics Department.P: provional

- 66 -

Table 3.3VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS BY COMMODITY,IUS4 million)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

Primary Commodities

Raw juts 110 117 151 124 104 81 97 125 104 85 74

Frozen shrimps, fish & froglegs 72 95 87 115 136 140 141 138 142 131 185

Other fish products 2 2 2 5 4 5 7 8 6 4 9

Teo 47 69 61 33 30 39 40 39 43 32 41

Spices, incl. tamarind & sesame 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fruits & vegetables 0 3 4 15 18 16 10 9 6 6 9

Tobacco 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2

Betel leaves 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 2

Raw cotton 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - - -

Crude fertilizers 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 2

Oil cake 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Wheat & rice bran 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 - -

Rice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Animal casings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lizard skins 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 - - -

Tortoise & turtle meat & shells 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 2

Bees wax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

Manufactured GoodsJute Manufactures 305 336 358 294 275 265 243 331 285 179 196

Jute specialty products 12 21 32 1 27 36 37 - 73 123 97

Textiles, incl. silk & silk waste 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 29

Readymade garments 11 32 116 131 299 434 471 609 736 1084 1240

Cotton yarn & thread waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Handicrafts 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 9 5

Pottery & coir products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood & furniture components 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Bamboo & bamboo products 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Leather & leather products 58 85 70 81 135 147 137 179 137 149 151

Sugar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

Molasses 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 - 0 0 0

Pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Newsprint 4 7 9 7 8 7 4 3 4 1 1

Paper 0 2 2 0 2 5 3 1 5 2

Hardboard & particle board 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cellophane 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 1Rayon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pharmaceuticals & crude drugs 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2

Glycerine 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

Urea 10 10 5 3 4 25 53 17 36 21 51

Naphtha 19 23 21 14 10 8 12 8 14 3 15

Furnace oil 8 0 0 0 2 4 4 9 19 5 21

Bitumen 4 3 0 0 0 0 0Wire & cables 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 8 2 0 0

All others !/ 8 3 9 5 7 8 10 31 100 169 263

TOTAL 687 823 940 819 1074 1232 1286 1524 1718 1993 2393

a/ Includes itoms for which details are not shown or available separately.- - Negligible or not available.

Table 3.4QUANTITY AND VALUE OF TRADITIONAL GOODS EXPORTS

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

Raw JuteValue (mill US$) 101.69 110.00 117.19 150.81 123.89 104.00 80.53 97.27 124.62 104.21 85.5 74.3

Quantity(OOObales) 1911.37 2246 1902 2408 2301 2241 1345 1617 2064 1360 1394 1356

Unit price (US$/bale) 53.20 48.98 61.62 62.63 53.84 46.41 59.87 60.15 60.38 76.63 61.33 54.79

Hessian Quantity (000 M.T.) 188.56 224.60 214.10 184.64 151.37 204.50 198.70 100.70 - - 91.19 101.51

Sacking Quantity (000 M.T.) 292.91 195.96 162.23 176.95 242.49 194.49 178.70 155.60 - 190.62 185.20

Carpet-backing Quantity (000 M.T.) 54.31 90.75 94.20 72.60 69.74 72.18 71.10 31.60 - 62.50 29.18

Carpets Quantity (000 M.T.) 0.22 0.70 0.24 - - - - - - -

Others/discrepancy Quantity (000 M.T.) 1.35 -3.01 37.23 10.00 10.20 17.50 16.50 145.10 - 146.83 187.32

Total Jute ManufacturesValue (mill US$) 283.50 306.00 336.12 357.72 294.32 274.73 265.01 243.34 328.05 284.79 178.87 195.35

Quantity (000 M.T.) 537.36 509.00 508.00 440.00 467.60 479.90 465.00 433.00 510.00 505.00 346.00 315.90

Unit price (US$/M.T.) 527.59 601.18 661.64 813.00 629.42 572.47 569.91 561.99 643.24 563.94 516.97 618.40

Jute Speciality ProductsValue (mill US$) 8.04 12.00 20.05 32.08 0.86 26.81 36.30 36.52 - 73.00 122.77 97.02

Quantity (000 M.T.) 13.20 22.00 30.00 35.15 1.01 - 60.00 64.00 - 145.14 187.32

Unit price (US$/M.T.) 608.71 545.45 668.23 912.61 846.69 605.00 570.63 - 845.87 517.93

TeaValue (mill US$) 37.94 46.00 68.90 61.02 32.70 29.66 38.80 39.83 39.48 43.21 32.43 41.14

Quantity (mill Ibs) 69.04 67.65 67.65 56.53 65.76 47.10 60.48 55.24 66.98 58.26 52.09 72.23

Unit price (US$/O001bs) 549.50 680.00 1018.48 1079.33 497.24 629.70 641.53 721.01 589.43 741.68 622.58 569.61

Leather and Leather Products /aValue (mill US$) 63.08 58.00 85.26 69.80 60.73 134.82 147.17 136.98 178.89 134.29 144.46 147.91

Quantity (mill sq ft) 87.28 93.89 102.91 81.75 71.52 137.46 118.21 127.56 157.22 101.36 119.55 138.63

Unit price (US$/OO0 sq ft 722.76 617.74 828.50 853.81 849.13 980.79 1244.99 1073.85 1137.83 1324.88 1208.36 1066.94

Total Value, Traditional Exports 494.25 532 627.52 671.43 512.49 570.02 567.81 553.94 671.04 639.5 564.0 555.7

- = Not available separately./a Excludes hides and skins, but includes leather goods.

Source: Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau and Bangladesh Tea Board.

Table 3.5QUANTITY AND VALUE OF NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987188 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Frozen Shrimps, Froglegs and FishValue (mill US$) 95.00 86.85 114.70 134.16 139.65 141.38 137.89 141.80 130.53 165.33 210.52

Quantity 1'000 IbsI) 38.46 38.24 47.16 45.58 48.33 45.19 47.88 52.92 44.32 48.35 55.51

Unit price lUS$/Ab) 2.47 2.27 2.43 2.94 2.89 3.13 2.88 2.68 2.95 3.42 3.79

Other fish products and preparations/aValue('000US$) 2186 2450 5420 4020 5210 6550 7600 5590 4080 9360 11462.00

Quantity Imt) .. .. . .. .. .. 1439 1621 972 1879 2568.00

Unit Price (US$/kg) .. .. .. .. .. 5 3 4 5 4

NewsprintValue (mill US$) 6.54 8.50 7.34 7.65 7.06 4.29 3.00 3.99 0.89 0.73 0.36

Quantity (000 tons) 14.00 18.00 16.00 19.00 13.95 7.70 4.67 8.71 1.55 1.34 0.75

Unit price lUS$/ton) 467.14 472.11 458.75 402.63 506.09 557.14 641.85 458.36 574.19 545.18 480.00

PaperValue ('000 US$) 2560 1586 .. .. 4500 3120 678 .. 4640 1740 14.00

Quantity (000 tons) 2371 2453 .. .. 5948 3756 620 .. .. 2117

Unit price lUS$/ton) 1079.71 646.56 .. .. 756.56 830.67 1093.55 .. .. 822

NapthaValue Imill US$) 26.00 20.68 13.91 10.24 8.08 11.94 7.92 13.68 2.99 15.25 6.61

Quantity (000 MT) 100.70 89.00 80.00 77.77 65.00 69.00 58.63 54.54 17.87 125.71 52.96 0%

Unit price IUSl/MT) 258.19 232.33 173.88 131.67 124.31 173.04 134.99 250.83 167.37 121.31 124.81

Furnace OilValue (mill US$) .. .. .. .. 3.68 4.01 8.93 18.77 5.34 21.42 9.01

Quantity OOO MT) .. .. .. .. 39.00 54.00 111.67 159.44 73.35 248.55 147.90

Unit price (US$/MT) .. .. .. .. 94.36 74.26 80.00 117.73 72.80 86.18 60.92

BitumanValue '000 US$) 3120 106 50 440 220 100 .. .. .. 130

Quantity IMT) 13000 459 209 2008 1000 500 .. .. .. 800

Unit price (US$/MT) 240.00 230.94 239.23 219.12 220.00 200.00 .. .. .. 163

UreaValue (mil US$) 9.73 4.79 2.57 4.18 24.93 53.37 17.04 36.30 21.35 51.18 51.37

Quantity (000 tons) 61.00 26.30 20.50 35.00 223.46 465.00 116.59 289.91 195.97 427.51 488.60

Unitprice(US$/ton) 159.54 182.13 125.37 119.43 111.56 114.77 146.17 125.21 108.94 119.72 105.14

Garments c/Value (mill US$) 31.57 116.20 131.48 298.67 433.92 471.09 609.00 735.63 1064.00 1240.48 1291.65

Total Non-traditional Exports (mill US$) b/ 194.49 263.00 306.43 504.48 663.40 731.92 852.66 1145.44 1429.00 1827.14 1986.74

Total Exports ('000 US$)/b 822.00 934.44 819.20 1073.77 1231.20 1285.92 1523.70 1717.55 1993.09 2382.89 2533.90

.. = not available separately.*/ Includes dried and salted fish and fish products, sharktins, and fishmaws.b/ Includes other item not shown above.cl Excdudk knitworSource: Export Promotion Bureau.

- 69 -

Table 3.6QUANTITY AND VALUE OF MAJOR IMPORT COMMODITIES

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Major Primary Goods Imill.US$) 758 836 449 469 752 610 585 636 532 465 461

Rice /a(mill. US $)Value (mill. US$) 56 176 8 50 150 17 102 4 4 0 23Quantity ('000,long tons) 179 690 39 261 671 60 300 11 42 0 66Unit Price /a (US$) 313 255 205 190 224 283 340 355 95 NA 348

Wheat /aValue (mill. US$) 342 322 212 223 339 357 241 327 251 176 145Quantity l'OOO,long tons) 1877 1899 1164 1508 2342 2077 1234 1566 1440 1135 884UnitPrice/alUS$/longton) 182 170 182 148 145 172 195 209 174 155 164

OilseedsValue (mill. US$) 2 6 0 25 39 11 14 1 30 35 65Quantity ('000,mt tons) 5 20 0 116 148 42 50 2 105 108 200Unit Price (US$/mt ton) 370 300 250 216 264 262 274 350 286 324 325

Crude PetroleumValue (mill. US$) 233 226 177 126 136 132 123 212 152 163 157Quantityl'OOOtons) 1004 985 1008 1000 988 1096 1008 1182 1018 1129 1239Unit Price (US$/ton) 232 229 176 126 138 120 122 179 149 144 127

Raw CottonValue (mill. US$) 125 106 52 45 88 93 105 93 95 91 71Quantity ('000 bales) 388 305 181 205 267 349 375 250 286 305 221Unit Price (US$/bale) 322 348 285 220 330 266 280 370 334 298 321

Major Intermediate Goods 369 433 517 357 476 563 567 689 679 638 713(mill US$)

Edible Oil /aValue (mill. US$) 87 103 136 115 176 170 200 208 185 113 140Quantity ('000 tons) 100 136 272 283 382 408 425 500 426 259 310Unit Price (US$/ton) 870 757 498 406 461 417 471 415 434 436 452

Petroleum Products /bValue (mill. US$) 122 133 165 104 136 153 174 207 168 165 166Quantity ('000 tons) 464 570 805 732 790 926 973 711 825 821 951Unit Price (US$/ton) 263 233 205 142 172 165 179 291 204 201 175

Fertilizer /aValue (mill. US$) 75 137 108 25 46 108 46 91 114 131 135Quantity ('000,long tons) 356 666 640 145 277 535 227 457 595 656 675Unit Price (US$/long ton) 211 206 169 172 166 202 203 198 192 200 200

CementValue (mill. US$) 37 26 57 64 67 83 83 106 110 130 129Quantity ('000, mt.tons) 748 588 1333 1601 1563 1893 1500 1800 1786 2040 1990Unit Price (US$/ton) 49 44 43 40 43 44 55 59 62 64 65

Staple FibresValue (mill. US$) 9 3 1 7 7 9 10 6 16 18 31Quantity ('000 bales) 27 10 3 29 24 24 25 15 51 77 124Unit Price (US$/bale) 333 300 333 241 292 375 400 400 314 234 250

YarnValue (mill. US$) 39 31 50 42 44 40 54 72 86 81 112Quantity (million Ibs) 37 26 56 39 38 37 45 60 55 52 64Unit Price (US cents/.lb) 105 119 89 108 116 108 120 120 156 156 175

Capital Goods (mill. US$) 616 691 1003 856 1090 1070 1296 1231 1289 1346 1300

Others (mill. US$) /c 610 687 396 939 668 1132 1311 914 1016 1622 1717

TOTAL IMPORTS (mill.USS) 2353 2647 2364 2621 2986 3375 3759 3470 3516 4071 4191

/a As a large portion of imports is financed on a grant basis, unit prices are often available for accounting purposes only./b Includes petroleum products imported by BPC from its refining operations in Singapore as well as imports of non-fuel

petroleum products./c Consumer and other intermediate goods not seperately shown.Note: 1 bale of raw cotton = 500 Ibs; 1 bale of polyester = 618 Ibs; 1 bale of viscose - 441 Ibs; 1 bale of yarn = 400 lbs.

Source: Planning Commission.

Table 3.7IMPORTS VOLUME AND PFUCE INDICES11980/81= 1001

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989t90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

IMPORTS

RiceValue Index 138.61 435.64 19.80 122.52 371.29 42.08 252.48 9.65 9.90 0.00 56.93Volume Index 216.18 833.33 47.10 315.22 810.39 72.46 362.32 13.29 50.72 0.00 79.71Unit Price Index 64.14 52.30 42.06 38.88 45.83 58.09 69.71 72.69 19.53 0.00 71.45

WheatValue Index 162.89 153.36 100.97 106.21 161.46 170.03 114.78 155.89 119.55 83.83 69.06Volume Index 192.20 194.45 119.19 154.41 239.81 212.68 126.36 160.35 147.45 116.22 90.52Unit Price Index 84.75 78.87 84.72 68.78 67.33 79.95 90.84 97.22 81.08 72.13 76.29

Edible OilValue Index 94.56 111.95 147.28 125.00 191.30 184.78 217.38 225.54 201.08 122.82 152.17Volume Index 70.92 96.45 192.91 200.71 270.92 289.36 301.42 354.61 302.13 183.69 219.86Unit Price Index 133.33 116.07 76.35 62.28 70.61 63.86 72.12 63.60 66.55 66.86 69.21

OilseedsValue Index 18.19 54.58 0.91 227.40 354.74 100.05 124.61 6.37 272.88 318.36 591.23Volume Index 18.17 67.31 1.35 390.38 498.06 141.34 168.27 6.73 353.36 363.45 673.06Unit Price Index 100.11 81.09 67.57 58.25 71.22 70.79 74.06 94.60 77.22 87.59 87.84

Crude PetroleumValue Index 67.81 65.78 51.51 36.67 39.58 38.36 35.80 61.59 44.24 47.44 45.69Volume Index 76.95 75.49 77.26 76.64 75.72 84.00 77.26 90.59 78.02 86.53 94.96Unit Price Index 88.13 87.13 66.68 47.85 52.27 45.67 46.34 67.98 56.70 54.82 48.12

Petroleum ProductsValue Index 76.34 83.22 103.25 65.08 85.10 95.74 108.88 129.34 105.12 103.25 103.87Volume Index 88.57 108.81 153.67 139.73 150.80 176.77 185.74 135.72 157.49 156.72 181.54Unit Price Index 86.19 76.48 67.19 46.57 56.43 54.16 58.62 95.29 66.75 65.88 57.22

FertilizerValue Index 72.12 131.73 103.85 24.04 44.23 103.85 44.23 87.02 109.62 125.96 129.81Volume Index 101.64 190.15 182.72 41.40 79.09 152.75 64.81 130.48 169.88 187.29 192.72Unit Price Index 70.95 69.28 56.83 58.07 55.93 67.99 68.25 66.69 64.53 67.25 67.36

CementValue Index 112.92 79.35 173.96 195.32 204.48 253.31 253.31 324.12 335.71 396.75 393.70Volume Index 167.71 131.84 298.88 358.97 350.45 424.44 336.32 403.59 400.45 457.40 446.19Unit Price Index 67.33 60.19 58.20 54.41 58.35 59.68 75.32 80.31 83.83 86.74 88.24

Raw CottonValue Index 115.74 98.15 47.78 41.67 81.48 86.11 97.22 85.65 88.33 84.26 65.74Volume Index 151.56 119.14 70.70 80.08 104.30 136.33 146.48 97.66 111.72 119.14 86.33Unit Price Index 76.37 82.38 67.58 52.03 78.12 63.16 66.37 87.70 79.07 70.72 76.15

Total a/Current Price Index 92.89 104.50 93.34 103.45 117.88 133.23 148.39 136.99 138.82 160.72 165.46Constant Price Index 104.24 123.76 108.52 118.41 133.49 138.29 142.49 126.09 126.86Unit Price Index 89.12 84.44 86.01 87.37 88.31 96.34 104.14 108.64 109.43

a/ Includes items not shown above.

- 71 -

Table 3.8MERCHANDISE IMPORT FINANCING(US$ million)

Special Loans &Year Cash a/ Barter Trade WES b/ Grants ct Total

1972/73 396.3 49.4 - 541.0 986.71973/74 397.3 64.0 - - 392.9 854.21974/75 273.7 62.0 3.0 41.2 810.7 1190.61975/76 430.1 23.7 5.2 40.4 786.5 1285.91976/77 307.2 28.8 2.7 56.2 449.9 844.81977/78 497.3 48.6 2.6 88.1 794.7 1431.31978/79 442.6 73.7 2.9 116.1 1005.6 1640.91979/80 901.7 75.4 3.5 177.4 1181.2 2339.21980/81 1056.3 96.6 2.7 334.3 1178.9 2668.81981/82 976.9 100.6 4.1 342.2 1262.9 2686.7

1982/83 489.9 49.9 10.6 479.2 1287.1 2316.71983/84 637.4 75.3 7.2 494.8 1138.1 2352.81984/85 735.2 63.9 6.8 695.8 1145.8 2647.51985/86 649.3 85.1 33.1 676.2 920.3 2364.01986/87 366.4 79.0 27.4 879.1 1268.5 2620.4

1987/88 443.9 84.7 43.0 1090.2 1324.2 2986.01988/89 422.7 90.9 90.9 1435.3 1350.2 3390.01989/90 568.9 63.2 55.2 1797.9 1305.5 3790.71990/91 485.0 72.0 36.0 1505.0 1412.0 3510.01991/92 782.0 26.4 15.0 1426.5 1276.5 3526.41992/93 2515.8 17.6 6.3 173.1 1358.1 4070.91993/94 2838.0 37.0 - 27.0 1168.0 4191.0 d/

a/ Overstated by the amount of commodity aid which is reimbursed by donorsb/ Wage Earners Scheme.c/ Underestimated by the amount of commodity aid payments which are reimbursedd/ This total includes imports of $121 for EPZ which is not shown under the sources of import financing

Note: Data reflect payments rather than commodity arrivals.Valuation for commodities financed under loans and grants is on amixed fob/cif basis, depending on the terms of the respective aidagreements; all other categories reflect cif valuation.

Source: Bangladesh Bank, Statistics Department.P:Provisional

Table 3.9AID PIPELINE(USS million)

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

FOOD AIDOpening pipeline 41.8 60.4 194.4 323.8 207.4 299.3 231.7 203.9 119.2 104.0 164.5Commitments 285.2 380.2 329.6 109.0 364.0 157.0 159.7 183.8 226.0 177.7 86.5Disbursements 276.4 244.5 202.8 225.4 300.5 226.9 187.5 268.6 241.2 121.0 117.8Closing pipeline 50.5 196.1 323.8 207.4 299.3 231.7 203.9 119.2 104.0 164.5 133.1Pledges 219.0 246.0 235.0 222.0 226.0 214.0 212.5 135.5 188.1 203.8 206.7

COMMODITY AIDOpening pipeline 476.7 591.7 374.7 460.4 609.1 451.5 499.6 478.5 A08.2 615.7 634.7Commitments 528.2 251.8 408.9 562.1 251.2 601.3 430.7 295.9 575.7 336.1 420.4Disbursements 439.2 431.6 393.4 402.5 509.4 537.7 456.7 408.1 386.0 372.1 451.3Closing pipeline 565.7 362.8 460.4 620.0 451.5 499.6 467.3 408.2 615.7 634.7 495.4Pledges 488.0 523.0 437.0 559.0 564.0 585.0 598.3 407.8 462.7 409.5 274.1

PROJECT AIDOpening pipeline 3374.1 3644.5 4061.8 4633.2 4390.1 4699.0 4601.2 5238.7 4846.7 5260.0 4513.2Commitments 891.7 1339.6 922.9 932.2 914.5 1115.1 1584.6 890.6 1113.9 760.7 2071.2Disbursements 552.8 590.9 709.8 967.2 830.5 903.9 1165.4 1055.9 1064.0 1094.0 989.5Closing pipeline 3713.0 4063.1 4633.2 4598.2 4699.0 4910.2 4943.0 4847.0 5260.0 4513.2 5449.2Pledges 913.0 932.0 999.0 1126.0 1233.0 1257.0 1428.7 1236.4 1463.0 1544.2 1652.3

TOTALOpening pipeline 3892.6 4296.6 4630.9 5417.5 5206.6 5449.8 5332.5 5948.1 5374.1 5979.7 5312.4Commitments 1705.0 1971.5 1661.4 1603.3 1529.7 1873.4 2143.7 1370.3 1915.6 1274.5 2578.1Disbursements 1268.4 1267.0 1305.9 1595.2 1640.4 1668.5 1809.6 1732.6 1691.2 1587.1 1558.6Closing pipeline 4329.2 4622.0 5417.5 5425.6 5449.8 5641.5 5473.2 5327.1 5979.7 5312.4 6077.7Pledges 1620.0 1701.0 1671.0 1907.0 2023.0 2056.0 2239.5 1779.7 2113.8 2157.5 2133.1

Ratio of Actual Commitmentsto Pledges (%) 105.2 115.9 99.4 84.1 75.6 91.1 95.7 77.0 90.6 59.1 120.9

Commodity aid includes cash aid, and project aid includes technical assistance.Discrepencies between closing pipeline in one year and opening pipeline in the nextyear result from adjustments for currency revaluations, aid cancellations, andreclassifications.

Source: Economic Relations Division. Staff estimates of project aid disbursements for FY92 and FY93

Table 3.10COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS OF AID BY TYPE OF AID(USS million)

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

COMMITMENTSFood Aid 285.2 380.2 329.6 109.0 364.1 157.0 159.7 183.8 226.0 177.7 86.5

Grants 271.8 380.2 329.6 109.0 364.1 157.0 159.7 183.8 226.0 177.7 86.5Loans 13.4 - -

Commodity Aid 528.2 253.1 408.9 562.1 251.2 601.3 430.7 295.9 575.7 336.1 420.4Grants 240.4 152.6 225.9 206.1 138.5 188.1 178.6 104.5 184.8 231.5 121.1Loans 287.8 100.5 183.0 356.0 112.7 413.2 252.1 191.4 390.9 104.6 299.3

ProjectAid 881.7 1344.6 922.9 932.2 914.5 1115.1 1584.6 890.6 1113.9 760.7 2071.2Grants 346.3 347.5 609.9 578.6 378.3 316.0 546.4 196.7 729.6 325.3 273.8Loans 535.4 997.1 313.0 353.6 536.2 799.1 1038.2 693.9 384.3 435.4 1797.4

TOTAL 1695.1 1977.9 1661.4 1603.3 1529.8 1873.4 2175.0 1370.3 1915.6 1274.5 2578.1

DISBURSEMENTSFood Aid 276.4 244.5 202.8 225.4 300.5 226.9 187.5 268.6 241.2 121.0 117.8

Grants 263.0 242.0 202.8 225.4 300.5 226.9 187.5 268.6 241.2 121.0 117.8Loans 13.4 2.5 - - - - - - - -

Commodity Aid 439.2 431.6 393.0 402.5 509.4 537.7 456.7 408.1 386.0 372.1 451.3Grants 244.4 243.9 256.0 176.0 170.7 164.0 135.7 246.2 192.0 207.8 184.6Loans 194.8 187.7 137.0 226.5 338.7 373.7 321.0 161.9 194.0 164.3 266.7

Project Aid 552.8 590.9 709.8 967.2 830.5 903.9 1165.4 1055.9 1064.2 1093.9 989.5Grants 226.4 214.9 503.8 255.5 352.6 282.0 442.7 316.7 383.6 489.5 407.7Loans 326.4 376.0 206.0 711.7 477.9 621.9 722.7 739.2 680.6 604.4 581.8

TOTAL 1268.4 1267.0 1305.6 1595.1 1640.4 1668.5 1809.6 1732.6 1691.4 1587.0 1558.6

Memo Items:Grants

Commitments 858.5 880.3 1165.4 893.7 880.9 661.1 884.7 485.0 1140.4 734.5 481.4Disbursements 733.8 700.8 962.6 656.9 823.8 672.9 765.9 831.5 816.8 818.3 710.1

LoansCommitments 836.6 1097.6 496.0 709.6 648.9 1212.3 1290.3 885.3 775.2 540.0 2096.7Disbursements 534.6 566.2 343.0 938.2 816.6 995.6 1043.7 901.1 874.6 768.7 848.5

Source: Economic Relations Division. Staff estimates of disbursements for FY92 and FY93

Table 3.11AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES(Period averages; Taka per US$)

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

QUARTERLY AVERAGES

PRINCIPAL RATE a/July-September 24.5393 25.2823 26.6890 30.3000 31.0000 31.8902 32.2700 35.3550 36.779 39.000 39.823October-December 24.9723 25.8510 30.1740 30.5250 31.0857 32.1570 32.2700 35.7310 38.026 39.000 39.85January-March 25.0827 26.2380 30.5030 30.8000 31.3976 32.2700 32.7580 35.7900 38.803 39.000 40.1April-June 25.2000 26.8780 30.3000 30.9140 31.5000 32.2700 34.4310 35.7900 39.000 39.594 40.25

SECONDARY RATE b/July-September 26.3200 27.9000 32.5900 33.1500 33.0000 32.9000 32.9250 36.0660 37.494October-December 27.4000 25.8000 33.4500 33.1500 32.9000 32.9100 32.9250 36.4460 38.536January-March 27.4600 30.4500 33.2000 33.0000 32.9000 32.9100 33.4220 36.5050April-June 27.9400 31.3000 33.2000 33.0000 32.9000 32.9100 35.1260 36.5050

FISCAL YEAR AVERAGES c/

Principal Rate 24.9486 26.0620 29.8861 30.6347 31.2458 32.1468 32.9323 35.6670 38.152 39.149 40.01Secondary Rate 27.2800 28.8625 33.1100 33.0750 32.9250 32.9075 33.5990 36.3810 - >

a/ Unweighted averages of monthly exchange rates shown. The rates are period averages of the market rate (IFS, line rf),which are cross rates based on a fixed relationship to the Pound Sterling since January 1972.

b/ Unweighted averages of end period monthly data. As of January 1992, secondary rate has been abolished.c/ Unweighted averages of quarterly exchange rates shown.

Source: International Financial Statistics and Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

- 75 -

Table 3.12Real Effective Exchange Rate Index a/(1980 -100)

Year REER

1980 100.01985 107.01987 89.61988 87.31989 93.21990 88.11991 86.41992 81.11993 79.8

1993 1994

January 82.3 82.9February 82.8 81.8March 82.6 80.6April 79.6 79.8May 77.5 78.9June 77.6 78.4July 78.9 76.6August 78.6 76.5September 77.9 76.6October 78.4 76.1November 80.4 76.4December 80.8 -

Source: IMF

a/ based on a 15 currency basket.

TAbe 4.1EXTERAL PUBLSC DEBT OUTSTANDING CLUDNG UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1993

WICLUDES ONLY DEBT COMnTED FOR A PERIOD UP TO DECEABER 31, 1993(I THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S TA N D I N N G I N A R R E A R S

DISBURSED : UNDISBURSED : TOTAL PRINCIPAL : INTEREST

CREDITOR TYPE : SUPPLIERS CREDITSCREDITOR COUNTRY

AUSTRIA _CHINA 3,240 - 3,240 - -

CZECHOSLOVAKIA - - -FRANCE 1,436 - 1,436 -HUNGARY 3,038 - 3,038 - -

INDIA 1,642 369 2,012 - -

NETHERLANDS _ _ _ _PAKISTAN 1,400 - 1,400 - -

ROMANIA 2,430 - 2,430 - -

SINGAPORE - _ _USSR 85,784 - 85,784 - -

YUGOSLAVIA 1,047 - 1,047 175 3----------------------------------------- :---------------------------

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 100,017 369 100,387 175 3

CREDITOR TYPE : FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSCREDITOR COUNTRY

FRANCE _ _ _ _

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - - -

CREDITOR TYPE : MULTILATERAL LOANSCREDITOR COUNTRY

ASIAN DEV. BANK 2,847,485 1,551,728 4,399,213 - _EEC 45,300 - 45,300 - -

IBRD 57,562 - 57,562 - -

IDA 4,823,654 1,353,212 6,176,866 - -INTL FUND ARG(IFAD) 138,147 44,650 182,797 - -ISLAMIC 0EV. BANK 21,954 42,792 64,746 - -NORDIC INVESTMENT FUND - 5,494 5,494 - 14OPEC SPECIAL FUND 61,748 23,393 85,141 - -

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 7,995,850 3,021,270 11,017,120 - 14

CREDITOR TYPE : BILATERAL LOANSCREDITOR COUNTRY

BELGIUM 36,873 - 36,873 - -

BULGARIA 222 - 222 222 40CHINA 32,024 41,958 73,983 1,034 -CZECHOSLOVAKIA 1,164 - 1,164 1,164 15FRANCE 119,409 119,626 239,035 - -

GERMAN DEM. REP. _ _ _

Table 4.1 (Continued)

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1993

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED FOR A PERIOD UP TO DECEMBER 31, 1993

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R S

DISBURSED UNDISBURSED * TOTAL PRINCIPAL * INTEREST

CREDITOR TYPE : BILATERAL LOANSCREDITOR COUNTRY

HUNGARY - - - -

INDIA 8,061 2,103 10,164 381 465

IRAN, Islamic Republic of 8,551 - 8,551 - -IRAQ 5,012 - 5,012 2,006 79

JAPAN 3,407,333 383,362 3,790,695 - -KOREA, REPUBLIC OF 915 13,701 14,616 - -

KUWAIT 81,352 41,177 122,529 - -

NETHERLANDS 16,249 3,517 19,766 - -PAKISTAN - 32,200 32,200 - -

POLAND 1,032 - 1,032 1,032 141

ROMANIA 2,842 17,493 20,335 - -

SAUDI ARABIA 96,405 4,005 100,411 _ _

SWITZERLAND 4,820 - 4,820 - -

TURKEY 725 - 725 124 16

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 42,161 - 42,161 - -

UNITED STATES 1,003,560 103,280 1,106,840 - -

USSR 25,069 - 25,069 3,116 -

YUGOSLAVIA 12,873 - 12,873 4,578 204

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 4,906,653 762,422 5,669,075 13,659 960

CREDITOR TYPE : EXPORT CREDITSCREDITOR COUNTRY

AUSTRIA 1,892 - 1,892 - -FRANCE 2,907 - 2,907 - -INDIA 23 - 23 - -

MULTIPLE LENDERS 37,723 100,000 137,723 - -

NETHERLANDS 2,608 - 2,608 - -UNITED KINGDOM - - - -

USSR 148 - 148 148 9

TOTAL EXPORT CREDITS 45,301 100,000 145,301 148 9

TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT 13,047,820 3,884,060 16,931,881 13,981 984

Table 4.1 (Continued)

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1993

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED FOR A PERIOD UP TO DECEMBER 31, 1993

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R S

DISBURSED : UNDISBURSED : TOTAL PRINCIPAL : INTEREST

CREDITOR TYPESUPPLIERS CREDITS 100,017 369 100,386 175 3FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - -MULTILATERAL LOANS 7,995,850 3,021,269 11,017,119 - 13BILATERAL LOANS 4,906,652 762,422 5,669,075 13,658 959EXPORT CREDITS 45,301 100,000 145,301 148 9

TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT 13,047,820 3,884,060 16,931,881 13,981 984

NOTES: (1) Only debts with an original or extended maturity of over one year are included in this table.(2) Debt outstanding includes principal in arrears but excludes interest in arrears. X

Table 4.2BANGLADESH: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS, AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1993

INCLUDING ONLY DEBT COMMITTED - DECEMBER 31, 1993

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

DATE DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I D : OTHER CHANGESEND OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS * MENT **

PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL: (1) : ~~~ ~~~(2) : (3) : (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) : (9)

198812 9,482,017 13,365,527 997,533 914,522 203,081 140,901 343.982 148,832 -198912 9,916,593 13,611,930 1,072,322 1,028,933 181,955 139,923 321,877 146,576 -497,388199012 11,451,550 15,491,340 1,400,524 1,187,730 358,371 157,451 515,822 117,533 954,791199112 11,960,764 16,063,560 889,877 757,056 268,075 152,607 420,682 398,756 271,863199212 12,243,799 16,178,322 978,421 783,966 287,642 142,385 430,027 249,860 -325,865199312 13,0047,821 16,931,882 706,736 617,598 273,902 153,044 1426,946 173 665 494,775

* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED . * * .

199412 13,858,976 16,353,167 - 1,131,792 306,656 176,805 483,461 258,078 -13,981199512 14,516,068 16,029,78i - 980, 475 27' 0,342 5C2 7sF, - _199c12 14I,8444,597 15'68a 66Q -, _'1?C712 1, 0110,9 5 27,4. 4, 199812 14,770,514 9148, L - ""' 80 .6 j3 _

1 aI? 12 14 453,160 114,531,3,9 99, 15 .b4, 7 , b ,35 42j -I 1 14, 0r:, 7U6 14 ,8 I,:3 -ei 40 I 36 - i

112 ,15. 627 0 'L .) -7 1 2 I ,

2t)2 I2 13.130,52 ' 1.1 , - o'61- - u200312 12,613,767 12,613,795 -- 5 0 141.520 659.090 - 2200412 12,085,862 12,085,890 - 5- 27,965 134,193 662,098 -

200512 11,554,226 11,554,254 - - 531,638 126,962 6583,60 _ 2200612 11,020,167 11,020,194 - - 534,060 120,044 654,105 - 1200712 10,487,109 10,487,137 - - 533,061 113,223 646,284 - 3200812 9,939,099 9,939,126 - - 548,012 106,530 654,543 - 2200912 9,408,994 9,409,021 - - 530,106 99,738 629,845 - 1201012 8,875,092 8,875,120 - - 533,902 93,381 627,284 - 1201112 8,344,210 8,344,238 - - 530,885 87,053 617,938 - 3201212 7,813,108 7,813,136 - - 531,104 80,924 612,028 - 2201312 7,284,490 7,284,517 - - 528,622 74,772 603,393 - 3

* Includes Writeoffs; Projected amounts in this column are amounts excluded from projections due to unknown terms.

** This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance in the amount outstanding including undisbursed from cne period tothe next. The most common causes of imbalances are changes in exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the table.

Table 5.1REVISED BUDGET SUMMARY(Tk crore)

1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

A. REVENUE SURPLUS 547 652 760 416 -348 38 513 1617 2550 3130Receipts 3477 4073 4716 5146 5822 6778 7823 9517 11060 12280Expenditues -2930 -3421 -3956 -4730 -6170 -6740 -7310 -7900 -8510 -9150

B. FOREIGN FLOWS 3307 4018 4372 5086 4885 5545 6103 6039 6365 6487

C. NET DOMESTIC CAPITALDomestic Loans & Advances 248 -252 -173 -400 -521 -499 -557 -539 -815 -1530Net Public Accounts 148 160 160 183 223 260 549 677 83 1608Total Net Domestic Capital -100 -92 -13 -217 -298 -239 -8 138 15 78

D. EXTRA-BUDGETARY RESOURCES &DEFICIT FINANCING 479 5 -166 355 955 882 383 362 260 196

TOTAL RESOURCES AVAILABLE 4233 4583 4953 5640 5194 6226 6991 8156 9190 989100

E-USE OF RESOURCESADP 3508 4096 4513 4651 4595 5103 6121 7150 8121 9600Non-ADP Projects 207 144 92 70 98 106 125 138 117 119Food Account 518 344 349 919 501 1018 744 868 924 141

Food-for-Work 216 348 326 400 526 471 510 564 418 547Net Food Outlay 302 -4 23 519 -25 547 234 304 506 -406

Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 31

Source: Ministry of Finance.

- 81 -

Table 5.2CURRENT BUDGET: REVISED ESTIMATES(Tik crore)

1983184 1984/86 1985/86 1986/87 1987188 1988189 1989190 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 W W93/94

Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Rtvind

Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budgt

REVENUETax Revenue 2410 2807 3242 3788 4307 4833 5712 6312 7861 8934 9760

Production, consumptionwnddistrbutmontaxes 2020 2355 2710 3156 3503 3950 4610 5085 6168f 6962 7725

ICustomdutlAea 1000 1120 1338 1550 1618 1820 2167 2328 2820 2836 3070

iSas taxes) 345 410 461 550 525 540 531 823 0 0 0

lExcise duties) 800 750 772 900 1172 1400 1700 1713 1360 320 175

jValue Added tax) 1675 2500 2775

(Stamptaxes) 75 110 125 140 170 170 177 187 251 312 355

(Motor vehicle texes) 0 10 14 16 20 20 35 35 40 50 60

(Suppiementery tax) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 945 1290

Taxes on income 331 390 460 550 664 750 875 1071 1300 1720 1735

Land revenue tax /a 33 40 51 56 89 85 114 60 85 100 120

Othertaxes and duties /b 26 22 21 28 49 48 113 96 110 152 8SO

Non-Tax Revenue 623 670 831 929 839 989 1067 1511 1856 2126 2520

Natioralized sector 123 283 362 349 215 255 178 439 701 789 833

(Indlstriss) 30 60 85 92 80 70 50 276 381 36o 415

(Banks) 93 223 277 257 135 185 128 163 320 429 418

(Other public sector /c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Interest receipts 102 140 233 200 225 220 345 300 300 350 350

Registration fes 30 40 43 65 60 63 70 70 80 96 120

Forest 29 36 50 51 50 60 20 25 30 40 43

Reilways 154 -30 -53 -104 -149 -150 -139 -149 -126 -100 95

Post Office & TAT inet) -13 8 0 9 37 78 53 220 254 295 431

Other Id 0 193 196 359 401 463 - - - 838

Total Curent Revenue 3033 3477 4073 4716 5146 5822 6779 7823 9517 11060 12280

EXPENDITURES

Gerwal Services 1015 1108 1367 1722 2003 2241 2592 2583 2936 3547 3844

- General administration 329 382 404 567 692 694 826 914 1081 1263 1379

-Just" and police 185 220 348 302 348 378 451 451 509 740 777

-Defense 491 493 596 829 934 1139 1279 1180 1301 1494 1634

- Scientific departments 10 13 19 24 29 30 36 38 44 49 64

Social Services 677 904 923 1414 1705 2079 2084 2241 2389 2831 3036

-Education 365 493 600 747 820 949 1094 1182 1382 1674 1756

-Healthe,populationplnning 129 160 113 275 305 321 367 387 431 516 607

-Social welfare 183 251 210 392 580 809 623 672 577 640 673

Economic Services 324 199 247 304 357 411 460 492 570 674 768

-Agriculture 80 109 95 174 196 234 256 283 300 346 393

- Manufacturing & Construction 6 8 64 20 22 23 28 26 29 33 36

-TransportnACommunicatlon 214 51 55 64 86 98 113 118 167 209 242

-Others 24 31 33 46 53 56 83 s6 74 86 97

Debt Service 274 318 428 445 590 733 662 854 1108 1025 1068

- Domestic 417 634 550 519

- External 437 473 475 549

Food Subsidy le 160 250 141 50 0 627 631 373 344 153 149

Other Subsidy 18 53 15 0 19 65 79 310 397 245 134 93

Contingency 0 136 315 2 10 0 1 370 308 146 192

TotalCurrsntExpendituresf/ 2503 2930 3421 3956 4730 6170 6740 7310 7900 86510 9150

a/ Tax levied on land hodings. It was virtually boished in FY74 together with the imposition ol the Agriculture Income tax but reinstated in 1978/77.b/ Includes electrickity dutie, estete duty on agricultural land, taxes on immovable property, gift taxes, capital gains tax, tool taxes, bettetment tax on

commercial setabiishments and other levies.c/ lnckjdes receipts from nationalized intursnce, other industrial operations and dibinvestmnent of industrial units. For 1973174 these are included

undr industrie above.d/ Receipts of various government departments. especially under general administration, social economic agricutture and other servIces etc.

e/ There hes been a change in the definition of subaidy, especlely during FY93. FY93 figures therefore, ere not fully comparble to the previou

Y- figures.f/ Govwnments budgetary definition. ThIs is different from the definition used in Annex Table 5.3, which is based on a definition used by IMF.

Source: Ministry of FInwnce

- 82 -

Tail 5.3ACTUAL INCOME AND EXPENDITUPE OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENTTak biYon

FYU4 FY85 FY88 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY80 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94

Total Re PM An an hL.2 fL2 429 6f.90 BO.00 9e.ss 113.59 123,20Tax 23.70 28.87 32.98 38.77 42.63 48.90 57.30 65.20 79.51 91.20 95.33Non-tax 4.90 7.06 9.30 9.23 10.68 11.10 11.60 14.80 19.38 22.39 27.87

TIR1 exp eo.6 -65.ii -77.47 93.0 :" -100.03 j125.90 137oo .143.81 -167.17 -LU.35

Crret* expendtur la .23.03 .28.61 -34.97 -41.59 -48.19 -56.70 -64.70 -72.30 .75.64 -84.56 -91.25Food accort defcit -3.80 .4.26 -1.83 -0.13 -5.64 -3.93 -8.80 -7.40 -5.75 6.47 -4.47Annual Development Progran (ADPM .30.11 -30.40 -36.50 -48.30 37.98 -42.20 -47.20 -52.00 -57.01 -67.65 -37.04Othw e pital expendturm and

net landin bi .3.71 0.06 4.32 .5.01 -4.09 -5.20 -5.20 -5.30 -5.41 -6.49 -12.53PRekIial 0.7 -1.10 -2.90 -8.60 -2.00 1.70

Ovesi bdot dieft 3420 *29.1 3f -45.03 .4li -47.33 -59.90 -53.52 -66.8 -61.45

Not forion fkwinck c/ I U. 2L87 31.51 40.36 41.43 4e.e8 4e.80 6.S 44.12 52.88 50.43

PrFct aid 13.31 14.40 20.17 29.63 25.01 27.20 35.50 35.20 36.37 39.60 38.87Conmodity id 9.63 9.62 11.84 11.13 14.07 15.50 13.50 16.30 6.35 17.20 18.20Food aid 6.97 4.92 4.99 8.94 7.64 7.30 6.20 9.70 8.81 4.65 4.80Commci food borrowIn -0.41 2.56 -2.27 -2.94 0.10 1.28 -0.80 -0.50 -0.75 -0.73 -0.44DObt amortUation .1.83 -2.83 -3.02 -4.40 -5.39 -4.60 -5.80 -8.60 -6.66 -7.84 -11.00

NotdowestlcfnwcMg 4.36 1.30 5.58 4.68 1.19 0.65 9.50 8.00 9.40 2.70 11.02

bnking sytwm 4.27 -1.90 0.95 3.37 -0.68 -2.50 6.50 1.70 0.20 -10.3 -5.36Othw do mtk 0.09 3.20 4.63 1.31 1.87 3.10 3.00 6.30 9.20 13.0 16.42

IAnnua pectege change)

Total Revenue 12.6 25.8 17.7 13.5 11.0 12.6 14.6 16.1 23.6 14.9 8.5Totalexpdtiue 4.8 8.8 17.6 20.1 3.1 12.6 16.5 8.9 5.0 16.2 11.5

Curent expewnure a/ 18.9 15.5 31.4 16.9 15.9 17.7 14.1 11.7 4.6 11.8 4.5ADP 1.0 1.0 20.1 26.8 -18.0 11.1 11.8 10.2 9.6 18.7 24.5

fAs percnt of GDPI

Totallrvn 8.1 6.8 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.9 12.0 11.9Tax reenue 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 9.2Non-tax reven 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7

Totlexpe pite 17.1 16.2 16.6 17.3 16.1 16.4 17.1 16.4 15.9 17.6 18.0Curre expenditre a/ 6.5 6.5 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.6 6.8 8.7 8.3 8.9 8.8ADP 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.3 7.1 8.4

Oversl budget deficit 9.0 7.4 7.5 8.4 7.1 7.2 7.9 7.2 5.9 5.9 5.9

GDP Mkt. Pric 355.2 406.9 466.2 539.2 597.2 659.6 737.6 834.4 906.5 947.9 1035.5

*/ Exclud food subsidies. whkih h cludd under the ood account deficit.bl Co rm resoADO poet expentwr, the Food for Work progran, m _icalanwous intnnt (non-devebopment) and nt lon nd advane.

A m*r pet of gross link b Governnt i minclud withn t ADP.c/ inclug forein gno.

Source: Mintry of Fhncend IMi and Sank Staff Estirnate.

Table 5.4ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME(Taka crore)

1986/87 1986/87 1987/88 1987/88 1988/89 1988/89 1989/90 1989/90 1990/91 1990/91 1991/92 1991/92 1992193 1992/93 1993/94 1993/94

Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMED Revised IMEDBudget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate Budget Estimate

Agnculture, Rural Development 838.0 759.8 1030.5 798.4 1156.0 1016.0 1316.7 1325.4 1414.4 1208.9 1600.7 1278.0 1944.8 1354.1 1736.2 1567.0and Water Resources(Agriculture) 252.0 190.9 333.2 258.7 363.4 280.0 384.4 262 7 424.9 307.2 468.5 423.5 534.3 370.9 590.9 521.0(Rural Development) 143 9 108.3 137 6 91.0 130.8 99.9 256.7 177.8 286.1 222.3 392.1 318.8 529.6 365.7 524.7 480.2(Water and Flood Control) 442.1 460.6 559.7 448.7 661 8 636.1 675.6 884.9 703.4 679.3 740.0 535.8 880.9 617.6 620.6 565.7

Industry 667.1 696.9 419.9 430.7 286.1 479.4 263.3 440.9 102.9 96.4 119.4 119.2 145.1 73.0 171.9 156.7

Power, Scientific Researchand Natural Resources 1048.3 1153.0 1023.7 977.1 815.9 985.0 829.4 985.2 1146.4 747.7 12746 1069.4 2018.7 1490.4 1481.0 1558.3

Transport 435.1 441.1 468.6 466.3 604.5 684.2 539.7 750.2 622.6 630.1 856.6 837.1 1263.8 962.5 7583.4 1544.4Communications 436 37.0 95.8 96.7 127.7 164.8 171.8 170.6 110.6 113.6 183.3 164.2 172.0 185.6 542.0 536.4Physical Planningand Housing 158.5 139.0 198.0 167.5 179.4 161.5 190.5 286.4 251.0 231.1 360.7 314.6 380.0 235.5 384.5 316.8

Education and Training 2146 197.6 251.5 213.3 257.6 209.5 303.9 224.9 335.3 173.4 492.2 298.9 603.4 528.4 955.2 920.2Health 80.4 73.3 87.0 83.3 183.0 85.1 127.8 97.5 165.0 141.1 178.2 137.3 278.8 205.8 304.1 280.5Family Plannng 142.4 104.8 170.4 140.9 214.1 168.6 296.2 125.9 295.4 310.4 338.7 271.0 351.1 282.9 446.4 407.7Social Welfare 21.9 20.1 19.9 15.9 41.5 36.6 27.6 25.8 38.4 30.6 36.4 28.5 92.1 30.6 71.8 42.5 t

Manpower and Employment 9.0 7.4 5.5 2.6 4.0 2.9 4.8 2.9 7.3 4.7 7.2 2.5 10.4 1.9 8.8 4.1Upazilas 335.0 322.1 370.0 379.6 200.0 204.4 200.6 286.7 120.0 118.8 232.2 235.7 266.5 413.0 439.0 437.6Other 519.5 487.0 509.8 374.1 525.5 417.0 830.0 816.3 1511.7 1463.2 1469.8 1267.5 594.0 786.3 1475.9 1211.6

Total ADP 4513.4 439.1 4650.6 4146.4 4595.3 4615.0 5102.3 5538.7 6121.0 5269.9 7150.0 6024.0 8120.7 6549.9 9600.0 8983.5

Note: Data used in the text differ from those shown above. The text data used IMED estimates on taka expendituresand ERD estimates on project aid disbursements.

Source: MkiistrV of Finance and Planin Commission.

Table 5.5:Finncial Perfomance of State-Owned EnterprisesTaka mUion

Corporations 1982V83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94(P1

ManufacturingBSEC -273 -202 -135 -8S -49 -62 -78 -365 -861 -1069 -2026 -804

BSFIC 218 189 -234 -336 -315 -125 -237 170 -121 -692 -845 -85

BCIC 158 121 131 105 -86 198 374 455 343 -548 203 -237

BTMC 23 112 42 -566 -245 -354 -22 -188 -584 -434 -1355 -1166

BJMC 184 -310 -1462 -1583 -420 -1431 -1882 -3709 -2473 -3175 -5216 -587

Subtotal 310 -90 -1657 -2466 -1115 -1773 -1845 -3636 -3697 -5918 -9239 -2879

Utilities:BPC 597 2000 1835 1044 1410 840 1236 387 2488 3512 3800 4417

BOGMC 72 122 89 -27 -155 100 -159 -265 288 510 709 721

BSC 24 4 6 -117 -101 37 -244 -245 -527 -383 -172 34

BJMAN 123 163 -23 -57 -352 -266 33 117 -249 348 679 507

PDB 417 453 199 -285 172 -89 -363 -3375 -2802 -7482 -4262 -5551

Subtotal 1233 2742 2106 558 975 623 503 -3381 -802 -3495 754 128

Other:BRTC -126 -123 -143 -174 -183 -214 -235 -259 -246 -238 -227 -138

DWASA -11 -20 0 -10 20 14 19 16 -4 5 11 -323

CWASA -3 6 5 -2 6 -2 -31 -63 -64 -57 -38 -9

MPA -18 -36 67 74 118 216 191 197 133 230 194 127

CPA 239 132 242 207 366 431 392 468 508 486 441 -62

BJC -271 -148 -444 -1623 -118 -1841 -1477 -1324 -1442 -1675 -2038 -78

BFDC 2 -2 -25 -27 -1 -18 -26 -11 -15 -9 -10 -6

TCB 18 28 11 24 47 41 45 34 7 22 -9 93

BFFWT 2 5 6 5 -11 -28 20 24 35 5 -18 12

DESA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -840 -988 -866

BADC -34 -130 -113 -439 -525 78 152 133 78 -105 -221 -260

BFIDC 33 34 48 28 10 -16 17 -39 -62 -142 -112 19

BFDC (FILM) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 -20 -16 10 6

BIWTC -20 -5 -11 -45 -55 -53 -78 -37 -37 -69 -30 -54

EPZA 0 0 -9 -10 -8 1 3 -12 -2 -1 23 10

BSCIC -4 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 1 1 -6 -41 7

CDA 1 2 4 -4 28 42 89 53 49 20 19 22

RAJUK 48 78 78 92 134 110 126 79 75 138 143 157

KDA 8 7 20 2 4 -1 15 11 13 7 6 6

B1WNTA -11 -13 19 -52 -48 -5 -1 -21 -31 1 -6 11

REB 0 0 0 0 -3 -26 -35 31 79 132 201 184

8PRC 1 3 19 16 -5 13 13 13 10 9 19 20

BSB 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -2 -2 -2 -8

BHB 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 0

Subtotal -144 -182 -231 -1940 -224 -1255 -801 -707 -942 -2110 -2676 -1130

Total 1399 2470 218 -3847 -365 -2405 -2143 -7725 -5441 -11523 -11161 -3881

Total excludingPetroleum (BP 802 470 -1617 -4891 -1775 -3245 -3379 -8112 -7929 -15035 -14961 -8298

P - Provional revised budget estirateSource: Monitoring Cefi, Autonomous Bodies Wmg, Ministry of Finance.

Table 6.1MONEY SUPPLY AND DOMESTIC LIOUIDITY(Tk biltion)

June 30, June 30. June 30. June 30. June 30, June 30. Dec 31 June 30. Doc 31 June 30. Dec 31 June 30. Jun. 30. b/ June 30. cd June 30, b/ June 30,cI June 30 c/1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994

1. Credit (net toGermnent 16.1 20.7 19.9 18.5 18.9 18.2 14.5 17.3 21.4 20.2 19.9 21.9 19.0 36.3 24.2 39.2 38.12. Credt to Other Public Sector 24.6 25.5 32.2 39.7 41.6 43.6 45.2 48.3 50.6 50.1 52.1 53.6 56.9 56.4 60.3 60.3 56.23. Credit to Ptriate Sector 31.0 49.1 68.9 83.6 89.6 109.0 119.6 133.6 148.6 160.0 168.1 178.2 191.2 179.4 199.6 193.2 209.74. Total Domestic Crecit 1+2+331 71.7 95.3 121.0 141.8 150 1 170.8 179.3 197.2 220.6 230.3 240.1 253.7 267.1 272.1 284.1 292.7 304.05. Net Foreign Assets -4.6 -0.8 -2.4 -1.4 1.8 6.0 10.1 7.8 0.2 4.3 10.2 17.5 40.2 40.2 59.6 60.8 91.56. Othr Liabilities (net) -8.1 -10.6 -13.3 -17.0 -13.3 -12.7 -14.2 -11.6 -21.2 -22.0 -27.1 .26.0 -38.2 -31.5

7. Total Liquidity (M2) 75.2 105.1 131 9 1574 165.2 189.5 189.4 219.2 220.8 248.2 250.3 292.4 329.3 285.3 369.7 315.3 364.0

8. CurrencyOutside Banks 114 15.6 17.2 19.5 20.7 24.2 25.3 26.2 27.3 31.9 300 36.1 40.7 40.7 44.8 44.8 54.29. Demand Deposits 14.9 19.9 25.1 29.8 22.8 26.3 27.9 28.5 32.7 31.8 35.8 35.9 41.8 41.8 45.8 45.8 57.510. Currency and Demanrd Deposits (Ml) 26.3 35 5 42.3 49.3 43.5 50.5 53.2 54.7 60.0 63 7 65.8 72.0 82.5 82.5 90.6 90.6 111.711. TimeDeposits 32.7 48.4 63.0 74.1 95.1 113.6 125.9 136.1 150.5 159.3 168.5 178.0 202.7 202.7 224.7 224.7 252.3

Changes tor Major Componerts (%) /a1. Credit (net) to Goverrrent

and PubbcSector -0.7 13.5 12.8 11.7 4.0 2.1 -3.4 2.9 13.2 10.5 2.4 7.4 0.7 22.8 8.8 7.3 -52Government -3.0 28.6 -3.9 -7.0 2.2 -3.7 -20.3 -4.9 23.7 16.8 -1.5 8.4 -13.2 65.8 27.4 8.0 -2.8Other Public Sector 0.8 3.7 26.3 23.3 4.8 4.8 3.7 6.2 9 3 8.2 4.0 7.0 6.2 5.2 6.0 6.9 -6.8

2. Credit to Prvate Sector 31.4 58.4 40.3 21.3 7.2 21.7 9.7 22.6 11.2 19.8 5.1 11.4 73 0.7 11.3 7.7 8.53. Total Domestic Credit 1 +21 11.0 32.9 27.0 17.2 5.9 13.8 5.0 15.5 11.9 16.8 4.3 10.2 5.3 7.2 4.4 7.6 3.94. Total Uquidtty (M21 29.7 39.8 25.5 19.3 5.0 14.7 -0.1 15.7 0.7 12.3 1.7 18.8 12.6 14.1 10.6 10.6 15.4

00

a/ Percent charnes over precedmng period.bl Data re adjusted (a3 to esclude write-down of industrial loans and recapitalization of state banks which involved issuance of Tk 17.3 billion

in long-term Treasury bonds (1991/921 end (bl to esclude the impact o3 mrs-reporting of Bangladesh Krishr Bank and BCCI s well as Tk 15 bilbonof bonds issued by the government to NCBs for loan write-off and recapitalization rnd provisioning requirements. 11992/931.

c/ Actual.

Data prepared on the basis of revised reporting system.

Source: Bangladesh Bank. Statistics Department.

- 86 -

Table 6.2AGRICULTURAL CREDIT ISSUED BY MAJOR CREDIT INSTITUTIONS(Tk crore)

1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Commercial Banks /aShort-term agricultural loans cl 349.0 164.2 156.3 227.2 199.9 204.8 167.0 224.5 206.9 247.1Other agricultural financing /b 103.6 50.8 20.0 13.3 10.1 28.0 47.1 34.9 24.1 96.6Fisheries financing 4.4 18.2 5.2 3.8 6.4 4.8 2.4 7.4 7.2 13.6Tea production and development financi 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.2 5.5 6.4 5.0 5.7 5.8Cold storage facilities for agricultural 25.0 13.2 20.8 13.6 17.9 17.9 10.7 15.6 21.6

productsTotal 488.7 252.7 208.3 263.1 239.7 /d 261.9 232.1 288.0 265.6 357.3

Bangladesh Krishi Bank & RAKUBShort-term agricultural loans c/ 192.8 101.8 143.3 144.4 126.6 153.4 134.0 121.9 181.5 268.1Other agricultural financing lb 312.2 137.6 105.6 114.5 172.5 128.6 91.9 222.5 219.7 294.7Fisheries financing 15.3 10.4 5.2 6.2 4.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 4.6 1.6Tea production and development financi 81.4 100.8 92.7 99.4 110.6 117.2 123.9 /f 145.9 145.2 178.1Cold storage facilities for agricultural 13.0 14.5 18.1 14.7 25.9 20.7 9.1 10.6 12.9

productsTotal 614.7 365.1 364.9 /c 379.2 440.4 423.0 361.2 /g 503.5 563.9 742.3

Bangladesh Samabaya BankShort-term agricultural loans cl 23.0 9.6 12.9 11.5 13.5 1.7 1.5Other agricultural financing /b 5.3 4.4 4.2 2.5 4.1 0.2 0.8 3.1 3.4 1.2

Total 28.3 14.0 17.1 14.0 17.7 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.4 1.2

Totals by loan typeShort-term agricultural loans c/ 564.8 275.6 312.5 383.1 340.0 359.8 302.5 346.4 388.5 515.1Other agricultural financing /b 421.1 192.8 129.8 130.3 186.7 156.9 139.7 260.4 247.2 392.4Fisheries financing 19.8 28.6 10.4 10.0 11.2 8.0 4.8 10.0 11.7 15.2Tea production and development financi 88.1 107.1 98.7 104.6 116.1 123.6 128.8 151.6 151.0 178.1Cold storage facilities for agricultural 38.0 27.7 38.9 28.3 43.8 38.5 19.8 26.2 34.5

productsTotal 1131.7 631.8 590.3 Ic 656.3 697.7 e/ 686.8 595.6 794.6 832.9 1100.8

Of which: Channelled through Cooperatives UnderBangladesh Rural Development BoardPaddy 120.2 57.1 46.6 64.7 41.2 25.1 17.8 3.9 6.9 3.3

T. Aman 120.2 18.5 10.0 20.6 5.5 4.6 4.2Boro 0.0 33.1 31.2 38.3 32.3 18.0 13.9Aus/B. Aman 0.0 5.5 5.4 5.8 3.4 2.5 0.6

Wheat 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2Potato 0.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 - -

Total 120.2 59.6 48.1 65.6 42.6 26.2 19.3 17.4 10.6 12.0

a/ Includes refinancing provided by Sonali Bank to TCCAs/KSSs through the IRCP/RDB.bl Includes agricultural term credit as well as financing for marketing, transport and agro-industries.cl Includes only crop loans.d/ Including Tk62.26 crore disbursed by BRDB, for which breakdown is not available.e/ Including Tk46.50 crore disbursed by RAKUB for which breakdown is not available.f/ Including loans of Pubali Bank Ltd.g/ Includes Tk324.17 crore under BKB Tk37.06 under RAKUB- Not available at present.

Sources: Bangladesh Bank, Agricultural Credit Department; Bangladesh Krishi Bank; Bangladesh Samabaya Bank, Ltd.;and commercial banks.

- 87 -

Table 6.3LOANS SANCTIONED BY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS(Tk crorel

1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988189 1989/90 1990/91 1991192 1992/93 1993/94

A. BANGLADESH SHILPA BANK (BSB)

Loans sanctionedFood and allied products 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.4 17.7 0.8 3.6 0.9 6.4Specialized textiles and handloom sector 69.9 56.9 35.6 85.3 190.4 72.6 2.7 31.4 91.3Paper, board, printing and publishing 0.4 0.5 2.8 1.6 68.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Tannery, leather and rubber industries 15.2 1.4 2.1 1.6 41.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 11.3Chemicals, pharm, and allied industries 6.5 9.9 0.8 7.9 18.2 7.2 3.8 0.5 57.8Engineering industries 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 8.7 6.8 0.2 1.7 1.4Non-Metallic minerals 1.1 0.2 3.7 0.1 44.3 3.5 0.0 1.5 12.2Miscellaneous industries 0.6 0.2 0.4 16.6 3.5 13.1 0.0 0.0 1.7Sub-total 97.0 72.5 48.9 117.6 392.5 107.2 11.6 36.2 181.9

Service industries 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.6 10.9 6.1 0.8 4.8 7.1

Total Sanctions 99.1 75.3 52.0 120.2 403.4 113.3 12.4 41.0 189.0Private sector 99.1 75.3 52.0 120.2 403.4 113.3 12.4 41.0 189.0Public sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Disbursements 12.2 27.9 30.9 46.8 63.1 81.5 35.4 66.2 890.7

End-fiscal year Resource Position

Foreign Currency Resources (US$ millionl

Resources available from aid agreements 73.6 65.3 66.7 59.3 55.1 46.3 32.9 29.1 3.2I-I Disbursements 2.3 7.0 7.0 9.4 8.1 3.8 1.4 11.9 1.1Resurces aveilable for disbursement 71.3 58.3 59.7 49.9 47.0 42.5 31.5 17.2 2.1I-I Funds committed but not yet disbursed 32.7 18.3 27.3 12.0 4.9 5.4 3.8 2.0 1.0Resources available for commitment 38.6 40.0 32.4 37.9 42.1 37.1 27.7 15.2 1.1(+) Cancellations & withdrawals 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -

I-) Approvals not yet committed 32.5 20.1 9.8 25.5 19.5 18.4 8.7 0.9

Foreign currency resources avail, for approval 11.6 19.9 22.6 12.4 -19.5 18.7 19.0 0.1 1.1

Local Currency Resources ITk crore)

Cash on hand/in banks 90.9 104.3 130.6 191.5 115.4 50.0 57.4 120.6 178.4(+) Money at call /e 6.8 4.5 6.0 0.0 -4.7 -19.0 -22.0 (7.0) 119.0)I-) Reserves on deposit 6.7 5.3 5.5 9.5 8.8 8.5 7.9 12.1 10.6I-) Commitments & approvals not yet disb. 27.1 33.8 27.0 18.3 39.7 62.5 23.3 58.2 200.1

Local currency resources avail, for disb. 63.9 69.7 104.1 163.7 62.2 -40 4.2 43.3 (51.3)

P Provisional Continued

Source Bangladesh Shilpa Bank (BSB)

- 88 -

Table 6.3 (Continued)LOANS SANCTIONED BY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS(Tk crorel

1985186 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

A. BANGLADESH SHILPA RIN SANGSTHA (BSRS) f/

Loans sanctionedFood and allied products 1.0 0.2 - 1.2 15.3 0.6 0.3 1.4Specialized textiles and handloom sector a/ - - - 8.2 42.3 1.6 0.8 - 6.2Paper, board, printing and publishing b/Tannery, leather and rubber industries - - - - 0.2 - - -Chemicals, pharm, and allied industries 0.2 - - 4.9 13.9Engineering industries - 0.3 0.5 0.2Non-Metallic minerals c/ 0.8 - - 3.7 1.8 0.6 1.7 - 0.2Miscellaneous industries - 0.2 - 0.4 0.3Sub-total 2.0 0.7 - 18.9 74.0 2.8 2.8 1.4 6.4

Service industries d/ 0.4 - 0.2 - 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.8

Total Sanctions 2.4 0.7 0.2 18.9 74.8 3.6 3.1 2.2 6.4Private sector 2.4 0.7 0.2 18.9 61.1 3.6 3.1 2.2 6.4Public sector - - - - 13.7

Total Disbursements 9.1 5.3 3.0 3.7 20.0 43.3 27.4 4.5 4.4

a/ Includes jute and allied fibres.b/ Includes forestry and wood products.c/ Includes glass and ceramics.d/ Includes inland water and road transport, cinemas, hotels, and clinics.e/ Includes amount invested in the Government SecuritiesfI Net of subsequent cancellations and adjustments.

Source: Shilpa Bank & Shilpa Rin Shangstha.

Table 6.4NOMINAL INTEREST RATES ON SELECTED SAVINGSACCOUNTS AND CERTIFICATES(percent per an)nm

Jan Sept July Sept Aug Dee Jan July Jan July Dec June Jan April June June 30.

1985 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990 1991 1991 1991 1992 1993 1993 1993 1994

Scheduled Banks' Deposit Rates:

SpeciW Notice Accounts 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.5 4.5 Ih /h

Savings Accounts with Checking 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.00 ta 9.00 9.00 8.5-12 8.5-11.75 8-11.50 8.5-12 8-11.5 6(minJ/g 5.S(min)/g 5.fmin)/g 5.(min)/g 4.51minr/g

Fixed Depoeits:

Threemonthstoundersixmonths 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 10-14 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 9-13 7.5(min)/g 7(minl/g 6(min)/g 6(min)/g 5(min)/g

Sixmonth tounderoneyerw 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 lb 12.50 12.50 10-14 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 /g 7(min)/g 6(min)/g 6(min)/g 5min)/g

Orn yer to under two yewrs 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.25 lb 13.25 13.25 10-14 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 /g 7(min)/g 6(min)/g 6(min)/g S(min)/l

Two years to under three years 14.50 14.50 14.50 13.75 /b 13.75 13.25 10-14 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 /g 7(min)/g 6(min)/g 6lmin)/g Slmin)/g

Three years endo ver 15.00 15.00 15.00 14.25 hb 14.25 14.25 10-14 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 10-13.75 /g 7(min)/g 6(min)/g 61min)/g S5min)/g

Post Office Savings Bank Deposit Rate:

Ordiinery Deposits 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

Fixed Deposit:

One year to under two yers 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 12.36 12.36 12.36 11.00

Twoyewrstounderthreeyewrs 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 13.55 13.55 13.55 12.00

Three years and over 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 13.00

Governnent Sorrowing:

Treasury Bills 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 6.25 4.75 4.50 3.50 1

TapTreasuryBills/c 9.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 10.50 9.00 8.00 7.00 00

Ways and Meas Advances 10.50 10.75 10.75 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 8.75 8.75 8.00 6.50 5.50 5.00

Two-year Special Treasury BorKds: /d

Issued trdiscount 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70 15.70

Issued at par 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.20 15.70 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.20

Savings Certificate:

Elght-ye rDefrens eSavingsCertifites 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00

Six-yea Bonus Savings Certificates 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 ri

Five-year Wage Earners Development Bonds /e 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 19-35

Five-yewrSvsDepoaits 12.20 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 15.00

Three Year Savings Certificate/f - - - - 19.55 19.55 19.55 19.55 19.55 19.55 19.55 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 f)

/a 10.0% for rural rea.

lb Effective from Jnuay 17. 1987.

/c Since repaid by August 1985.

id With effect from February 5, 1984 and repaid bY June 1988.

Ih With effect from Februry 24. 1981.

/I With effect from November 1 1988.

/g With ffect from June 3. 1992 minmum rates ware estabished s shown above; the mximnum interest rate to be decided by the banks themselves.

/h Banks ae free to detemine thir rates.

A No mcney would be inveted/deposited In the Bonus Savins Certfite (Bonus Swnhays Patra) from Jure 3. 1992. The Goveriwnent

he decided to dscontinu the sceme.

II The msxkm.mi rates of interest on depoeits wotld be decided by the bank thenselves.

Soiweer muVdh Bwnk. Reee wch Depwrnent.

Tab1t 6.5NOM4AL I8TEFtEST RATES ON ADVANCES(Perrent pw aianum)

AUg. Oct. Jan. S5pt. Jut. Sapt. Aug. Dec. Jan. Jsi. Jan. Jul. Dec. Jun. Apr. June June1977 1980 1985 198S 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990 1991 1991 1991 1992 1993 1993 1994

Bank Rate (Bangadesh Bank's rndingand discount rate) 8.00 10.50 11.00 11.26 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.25 8.5 I 6.50 6.50 5.50

Schedule Banks intwreti Rates onLoan, and Advances:.E.Portn,edt feterditional ites/a 10.50 12.00 12.00 12.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 S.0-11 B.0-11 8.5-11.5 8.0-12 7.5-11 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 8.0-10.0.Expont adt fwnon-t,aditionafitnn s/a 10.50 12.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.0-11 8.0-11 8.5-11.5 8.0-12 7.5-11 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 8.0-10.0- Export credit othwr / 10.50 9.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.0-11 8.0-11 8.5-11 5 8.0-12 7.5.11 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 7.5-10.5 8.0-10.0

* Agriculture tproductionl includingforestry andfishtsry/b - 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 12-16 11-15 11-15 11-15 11-15 10-14

-Industry 1100I12.00 14.00 1450 1200-14 50 9.00-14 00 9,00-14.00 9 00-14 00 9 00-14 00 13.0.17 00 12 5-16.5 12.5-16 12-17 11-15 /d /d /d /d

-Industry in less developed areas 11.50 13.00 1300 13.00 10 00-13.50 10.00-13.50 10.0013.50 1000-1300 10.00 10.00 10.00 9-12 8-13 8-13 8.13 8-13 9-12

Loans for construction of houses:- in rural areas 5.00 5.0 5.00 500 500 5.00 5.00 5.00 . .. ..

in urban areas 16.00 16.00 16.00 1600 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 12-15 12-15 12.15 12-15 11 14 /d /d /d /d

Special credits:loans given in the Seocial Economic Zone ofChittagong Hill Tracts region 11.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5 00 5 00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 /d /d /d-srall loan whernes. special credit for saltgrowers. self-e,rmployment. etc. /c 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 /d /d /d /d

Advances tor internal trading purposes 15.50 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18 00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 13.5-18.5 12-17 /d /d /d

/a Traditional = lute, jute goods and loose tea. non-traditional = packet tea & jute carpets; other = newly emerging industries. From July 7, 19861 Dec. 1989. a rate of 7 percent wasapplied to a small number of newly emerging non-traditional e.port items engineering & electrical goods, handicrafts and hafdlooms.) This special rate was abolished effective Jan. 1990.

/b Includes service charge of 4%./c Does not include services charges of 2% over the rate of 13% applied with efect from April 1, 1984./d Effective April 1. 1992 BB removed all ceiling on deposit rates and all floors and ceiling on all lending rates with the neception of enport, agriculture and small and cottage indunries sectors.

- = not available; - = not applicable.

Source: Bangladesh Bank, Statistics Department

- 91 -

Table 7.1LAND UTILIZATION STATISTICS000 Hectares

1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

Total area 14839 14839 14839 14840 14840

Not availablefor cultivation 3094 3150 3221 3857 4193

Forest 1903 1903 1899 1892 1892Cultivatable waste 359 349 584 480 444Current fallow 1329 1087 963 633 665Net cropped area 8154 8350 8174 7979 7645

of which:Single cropped area 3571 3634 3294 3117 2594Double cropped area 3605 3719 3899 3894 4045Triple cropped area 977 997 981 968 1006

Memo Item:

Total cropped area 13714 14063 14034 13808 13699

Source: Agricultural Statistics Wing, BBS.

- 92 -

Table 7.2AREA UNDER MAIN CROPSl'000 hectares)

1984185 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 19'3/94

Foodgrains 11307 11094 11325 11035 10897 11122 11145 10927 10917 1 A,F -Rice 10452 10399 10609 10323 10224 10486 10435 10244 10178 ',',p1

(Aus) 3004 2845 2904 2789 2884 2265 2111 1916 1735 1", (Aman) 5839 6020 6053 5591 5101 5708 5776 5693 5844 5750(Borol 1610 1534 1652 1943 2439 2513 2548 2635 2599 2581

-Wheat 691 540 585 597 560 592 599 575 637 615-OtherCeresls 163 155 131 115 113 44 111 108 102 97

Pulses 744 708 683 699 564 704 696 689 681 678-Gram 109 104 104 103 99 103 97 92 90 86- Khesari 244 232 222 231 159 243 244 246 245 245- Mashkelai 75 69 66 70 67 70 69 68 68 67-Masur 233 223 213 217 163 209 210 209 207 208-Metor 23 21 21 20 19 19 18 18 18 18-Mung 60 59 57 58 57 60 58 56 53 54

Oilseeds 598 591 564 546 544 573 568 565 562 558- Rape nd mustard 385 370 343 318 334 339 339 340 338 337-lii 86 92 85 82 76 86 83 81 82 80- Groundnut 28 30 30 39 36 39 38 39 36 35- Unse*d 68 68 74 75 66 77 77 75 75 75-Coconut 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 31 31

Fibres 705 1075 785 524 560 563 603 607 520 510-Jute 691 1058 772 512 543 542 583 588 500 478-Cotton 13 17 13 12 17 21 20 19 20 32

Drugs & Narcotics 147 145 139 142 141 140 135 134 135-Tec 46 45 46 47 47 47 48 48 48-Tobacco 53 54 46 47 46 45 38 37 36 37- Betelnuts 36 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 75 36-Detel laves 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 31 14

Spices 131 125 122 124 125 127 127 124 124 131- Rabi chillies 68 63 60 61 62 63 63 61 61 67-Onion 35 34 33 34 34 35 35 34 34 35

Garlic 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13-Turmeric 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Tubers 177 165 157 174 163 169 174 177 175 176=Potato 114 109 106 123 111 117 124 128 130 131= Sweet potato 63 56 51 51 52 52 50 49 45 45

Sugar Plants 178 170 175 182 181 196 201 197 197 190-Sugarcane 167 160 165 173 172 187 191 187 187 180-Date palm 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10

Fruits 124 122 124 129 125 127 127 127 127 127Bonana 41 40 41 41 38 39 39 39 39 39

-Mango 46 46 47 49 49 49 49 49 49 49Pineapple 14 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14Jscktfruit 23 23 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Vegetables- Brinjal 27 26 26 27 18 29 29 29 29 29

Note: Crops with less than 10,000 ha average not shown separately.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 93 -

Table 7.3PRODUCTION OF MAIN CROPS(thousand metric tons (unless noted otherwise)

1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993194

Foodgrains 16189 16590 16547 16650 18827 18936 19397 19591 19244Rice 15039 15406 15413 15544 17857 17852 18252 18341 18041lAus) 2828 3130 2993 2856 2488 2328 2179 2075 1850iAman) 8542 8267 7690 6857 9202 9167 9269 9680 9419(oaro) 3671 4010 4731 5831 6167 6357 6804 6586 6772

-Wheat 1043 1091 1048 1022 890 1004 1065 1176 1131- Other cereals 107 93 86 84 80 80 79 74 72

Pulses 496 487 515 395 490 503 499 498 513-Gram 77 82 75 64 70 71 65 57 61-Khesari 167 164 182 118 170 177 185 172 188- Mashkcsli 45 43 52 47 52 52 50 51 52-Masur 160 149 159 125 155 157 153 163 168-Motor 14 14 14 13 12 14 14 14 14

Mung 33 35 33 28 31 32 32 31 30

Oil seeds 469 438 448 420 437 449 461 475 469- Rope and mustard 261 229 222 207 217 228 243 244 239Til 54 49 49 43 49 49 45 50 48

- Groundnut 34 34 48 45 41 41 42 39 41-Linseed 37 43 43 41 48 55 49 49 48- Coconut 83 83 86 84 82 76 82 93 93

Fibrcs- Jute ('000 bales) 8660 6753 4701 4436 4639 5302 5273 4919 4453- Cotton ('000 bales) 28 22 39 39 85 146 77 87 143

Drugs & narcotics-Tea 44 38 41 44 39 46 45 49 50- Tobacco 47 40 42 39 38 34 34 36 37- B8telnuts 23 22 22 22 23 24 24 24 25- Betel leaves 61 62 65 63 65 67 69 70 72

Spices 246 240 256 256 272 267 272 269 273- Rabi chillies 41 39 41 43 47 47 46 49 48

Onion 136 130 141 139 148 143 144 140 144Garlic 38 36 39 38 39 38 40 39 40

- Turmeric 31 35 35 36 38 39 41 41 41

Tubers 1715 1617 1834 1633 1578 1720 1849 1818 1864-Potato 1103 1069 1276 1089 1066 1237 1379 1384 1438- Sweet Potato 612 548 558 544 512 483 470 434 426

Sugar plants- Sugarcane /a 6640 6896 7207 6707 7423 7682 7446 7506 7110- Date palm (juice) 279 268 221 201 206 206 206 214 221

Fruits 1207 1226 1243 1156 1223 1218 1213 1217Bansns 691 703 684 609 637 624 626 636 631

-Msngo 159 155 160 159 175 179 183 183Pineapple 128 133 145 137 157 162 148 148 148

- Jackfruit 229 235 254 251 254 253 255 257 255

Vegetables- Brinjal 167 162 164 116 182 186 185 189 188

/a Based on totel ares and mill form yield estimates; probably substantially overestimated.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau ot Statistics.

94 -Table 7.4AUS AND AMAN PRODUCTION BY DISTRICI6000 metric tons rice equivalent6

1984/85 1985086 1 i9 6 8 _/ H8 1986889 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

AUS

Raishahi 827.9 £03 , 1 tI ti 605.0 471.1 446.5 430.8 352.7 347.2Dinajpur 196.5 169 9 r I ' 1330 82.1 88.5 77.7 49.2 53.1Rangpur 261.1 29) i : 217.0 156.7 155.0 152.7 120.3 113.5Bogra 85.7 84.3 : 4 31.0 21.0 24.2 10.0 5.2 4.2Rajshahi 178.9 154.8 '- a 4 162.0 156.0 137.1 155.5 150.7 144.3Pabna 105.8 103.9 4 2. 2 '2.0 55.3 41.7 34.9 27.3 32.1

Khulna 516.5 601.8 ,. lI 6 787.0 639.2 628.0 624.4 580.7 501.8Kushtia 159.3 1 J i" 8 - t 194.0 150.0 166.4 140.6 130.3 137.4Jeassore 141.7 1 6 . . 1 2 I>/0) 230.0 172.1 150.7 189.0 130.5 112.1Khulna 30.2 32.2 4 l 1 3 59.0 46.0 48.3 57.1 86.7 64.2Barisal 139.3 1 /2 f 3. .: i 213 0 202.8 181.5 169.8 154.2 121.7Patuakhali 46.0 /7 6 r '3 8 91.0 68.3 81.1 67.9 79.0 66.4

Dhaka 800.0 812.1.s . .1 728.0 680.7 564.3 538.7 537.9 516.0Jamalpur 114.5 11 '. f1. 70.0 60.6 58.8 55.1 52.7 53.8Mymensingh /a 352.1 34 5. J -. 253 0 254.2 229.1 241.9 213.4 227.1Tangail 71.8 76.0 1 .49 64 0 49.6 47.3 37.6 40.1 38.7Dhaka 154.6 122, / i * i!J g 108.0 109.5 90.1 73.1 65.8 61.7Fandpur 107.0 14'. 8 I / .4 .l 233.0 206.8 139.0 131.0 165.9 134.7

Chittagong 638.1 601;,; 0 Li /36.0 696.7 689.4 584.6 603.6 485.3Sylhet 147.5 1h'-3 1 1 1 227.0 263.2 269.0 182.7 238.0 184.6Comilla 197.4 160. . . . . 8 209.0 162.0 177.2 173.4 151.9 126.8Noakhali 146.5 149 8 . . 9 225.0 172.7 128.0 107.0 98.3 70.4Chittagong 116.3 10J3 1 11 . e1 54.0 73.2 87.8 92.9 89.2 76.1ChittagongH.Tractsb/ 18.9 21 fi 4I t2 11.0 10.9 12.0 12.3 11.5 11.7Bandarban 11.5 1 ] :i 1.3 1i 10.0 14.7 15.4 16.3 14.7 15.7

Total 2782.5 2827.1 I3. 4 21' 1 2856.0 2487.7 2328.2 2178.5 2074.9 1850.3

AMAN

Rajshahi 2566.1 2692 . :. .2. 11 2 2353.0 3141.9 3326.6 3254.7 3405.5 3210.4Dinajpur 529.1 541 8 . :1 18 624.0 763.1 793.4 713.6 735.4 684.7Rangpur 928.1 93()00 :13, c, >:I 8 1 844 0 1070.7 1 1112.2 11129.2 1132.0 1159.0Bogra 425.7 445 6i 1 1 351 . 326.0 458.7 486.2 506.8 537.3 508.9Rajshahi 525.4 55 i ;i 129 2 450.0 675.6 731.0 710.8 766.8 708.4

Pabna 157.7 212 i i I I 3 109.0 173.8 203.8 194.3 234.0 149.4

Khulna 1897.1 2007 . I 4 1=1, 6 1711.0 2338.1 2207.2 2351.6 2349.7 2338.7Kushtia 107.1 111 3 2P 1 141.0 176.7 185.4 190.2 199.0 178.1Jessore 322.4 412 6 61 '3 344.0 538.6 529.2 630.8 591.3 587.0Khulna 622.7 60/ 9 '1 . ' r0 461.0 654.6 627.9 655.3 643.2 648.6Bansal 481.0 531 5 5 0 5 1 P 453.0 573.2 531.9 484.3 509.5 494.5Patuakhali 363.9 396 3 i' . 11' f 312.0 395.0 332.8 391.0 406.7 430.5

Dhaka 1587.0 1763 5 I, it 1 '3 1062.0 1523.9 1496.3 1550.4 1666.8 1624.4

Jamalpur 242.5 263.5 .' . i,1 175.0 218.2 218.8 246.0 244.1 293.7Mymensingh /a 698.5 76.7 1) , t 1 524.0 698.5 656.7 651.7 721.8 709.7Tangail 158.9 1 J7 9 12 0 1011 5 40.0 170.4 176.9 145.2 168.0 173.9Dhaka 301.3 309 7 i 2 1 148.0 241.6 249.0 261.3 266.4 242.2Faridpur 185.9 255 / 11 1 175.0 195.2 194.9 246.2 266,5 204.9

Chnagong 1880.6 2011 2 22 ,. . i 1730.0 2198.2 2136.9 2112.2 2257.9 2245.7Sylhet 505.6 583 7 'I / I-8 375.0 576.0 627.1 580.1 650.5 624.0Comilla 482.5 533 4 .l1 t9 34 S 424.0 667.9 611.9 528.3 586.3 578.0Noakhali 423.1 418 h 4' 1'6 ? 372.0 379.3 303.8 368.8 381.8 391.3Chittagong 422.8 430.3 , . .14 4 514.0 526.5 537.7 580.4 581.5 593.7Chittagong H.Tracts /b 46.6 03 . 44 8 45.0 48.5 56.4 54.6 57.8 58.7

Total 7930.8 8542 2 82., '. D 1). 6856.0 9202.1 9167.0 9268.9 9679.9 9419.2

la Kishoreganj included in Mymensingh/b Khaghrachari and Rangamati included in Chittago,rn,g H I T,~, is

:: = Not AvailableSource: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 95 -

Table 7.5PRODUCTION OF BORO AND WHEAT BY DISTRICT('000 metric tons, rice equivalent)

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988189 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992'93 1993/94

BORO

Rajshahi 461.2 550.7 666.4 738.4 1022.4 1113.9 1394.0 1602.7 1757.9 1885.9 1975.1 1983.7 2181.5Dinajpur 26.0 31.7 35.2 38.4 52.6 71.3 87.2 142.9 166.1 169.9 204.73 172.4 267 2Rangpur 107.5 126.9 128.2 154.5 280.7 340.9 391.8 439.3 461.8 452.7 471.88 515 553.5Bogra 110.1 129.6 193.0 225.1 270.5 249.7 376.0 428.8 438.9 473.9 489.89 503.9 517.1Raishahi 115.2 132.2 169.8 159.1 237.9 289.2 319.8 346.1 418.8 512.7 522.71 537 2 584.1Pabna 102.4 130.3 140.3 161.3 180.7 162.8 219.2 245.6 272.3 276.7 285.93 255.1 259.6

Khulna 225.7 264.0 215.9 355.4 234.1 246.6 365.0 609.2 615.0 667.3 709.18 728.3 606Kushtia 7.3 9.0 6.9 10.2 19.4 21.1 26.9 45 6 53.1 61 67 46 66.1 52.2Jessore 63.3 79.5 78.1 151.2 81.0 115.3 210.3 401.3 316.7 356.1 367.42 365.9 325.5Khulna 41.2 44.9 42.4 80.0 74.9 59.6 78.4 90.5 90.9 100.3 117.15 159.9 113.4Barisal 97.9 112.5 75.1 94.5 50.0 45.3 45.1 67.7 151.3 146 1 146.42 124.1 100.4Patuakhali 16.0 18.2 13.4 19.5 8.8 5.3 4.3 4.1 3.0 3.8 10.73 12.3 14 5

Dhaka 1321.3 1456.3 1262.6 1525.3 1278.9 1472.2 1717.3 2081.4 2180.1 2244.1 2287.7 2256 2287.2Jamalpur 115.1 131.5 117.9 172.4 140.6 169.5 222.4 236.2 246.2 262 276.9 281.2 238.7Mymensingh a/ 569.4 565.2 528.7 647.4 503.0 603.0 731.1 816.1 815.3 814.5 898.27 909.1 1020.5Tangail 209.7 266.4 223.9 235.1 229.5 229.8 217.3 237.4 255.0 237.9 245.07 249.6 264.9Dhaka 320.9 360.4 301.2 298.5 263.0 309.9 330.8 430.9 512.2 580.8 566.96 552.6 544 8Faridpur 106.1 132.8 90.8 171.8 142.8 160.0 215.7 360.8 351.4 348.9 300.52 263.5 218.3

Chittagong 1143.9 1275.1 1204.6 1290.0 1135.6 1177.5 1254.5 1538.0 1613.8 1559.4 1832.2 1617.8 1697.5Sylhet 396.0 418.2 430.0 464.0 379.2 386.9 351.0 430.1 394.7 467.2 535.32 456.8 532.8Comilla 308.7 336.2 287.5 317.7 303.1 304.0 436.7 577.1 592.7 555.4 615.97 610.4 630.4Noakhali 132.4 193.4 151.4 186.5 135.1 170.8 179.7 245.2 314.9 321.6 364.65 246 238.4Chittagong 283.4 299.1 308.4 292.2 293.1 284.4 264.8 267.0 290.3 196.6 293.84 282.5 271.8Chittagong H. Tracts b/ 23.4 28.3 27.2 29.5 25.1 31.4 22.3 18.6 21.2 18.6 22.41 22 2 24 1

Total: 3152.0 3546.2 3349.5 3909.1 3671.0 4010.2 4730.8 5831.3 6166.8 6356.7 6804.2 6585 7 6772 2

WHEAT

Rajshahi 453.8 543.5 598.1 684.3 454.0 535.2 435.3 443.0 437.2 530.7 557 3 583.3 551 5Dinajpur 130.9 113.0 143.1 119.2 88.6 114.8 95.5 110.0 134.4 156.6 146.4 171.5 152.9Rangpur 127.4 169.9 173.6 196.2 109.4 165.3 131.1 133.3 116.9 122.5 134.7 112.9 109.1Bpgra 48.3 52.2 61.7 79.8 61.1 49.3 44.4 39.2 38.6 40.7 33.7 35 4 36.8Rajshahi 72.3 109.3 112.3 154.4 108.4 109.8 93.2 87.2 78.5 92.3 104 7 124.4 119.2Pabna 75.0 99.1 107.4 134.7 86.5 96.0 71.1 73.3 68.8 118.6 137 8 139.1 133.5

Khulna 199.7 198.2 197.8 246.7 170.2 157.8 222.8 203.9 149.0 156.7 166.5 228 209.7Kushtia 108.4 132.1 131.9 136.1 94.3 73.2 97.4 96.2 67.5 72.4 80.5 117.6 98.7Jessore 75.2 56.3 59.3 100.5 58.6 70.8 104.5 91.2 66 2 74.2 75.5 98.2 95.5Khulna 13.3 5.1 4.7 5.6 10.4 9.7 6.8 7.3 6 5 5 1 5 7 3.6 6.3Barisal 2.9 4.5 1.8 4.4 6.7 4.0 13.9 9.0 8.7 4.8 4 7 8.4 8.6Patuakhali 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6

Dhaka 183.8 228.9 261.6 359.1 265.8 242.5 255.0 250.0 206.5 223.5 253.3 263.5 264.4Jamalpur 10.5 17.3 30.6 46.5 31.9 39.7 37.4 36.8 33.6 39.3 42 51.2 45.3Mymensingh a/ 22.0 32.1 40.2 47.8 43.2 41.2 39.3 42.2 35.8 37.8 43 3 48.6 46.9Tangail 36.7 38.2 39.8 46.6 49.5 47.1 39.7 37.0 31.7 28.6 33 7 41.9 42 6Dhaka 38.2 47.2 50.5 78.0 75.5 51.6 64.1 51.6 48.4 50.2 61.3 57.4 57.7Faridpur 76.4 94.1 100.5 140.3 65.7 62.9 74.5 82.4 57.0 67.6 73 64.4 71.9

Chittagong 130.0 124.8 154.0 173.8 152.9 155.6 134.9 125.1 97.3 93.4 87.9 100.8 105.5Sylhet 8.3 13.8 8.8 15.8 9.3 11.5 10.5 11.2 8.5 12.1 10.8 14.5 10.9Comilla 120.6 109.3 143.7 154.7 140.9 141.7 122.3 112.6 86.9 81.1 76.7 85.2 92.3Noakhali 0.8 1.4 1.3 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.9 0.2 0 4 1.1 2 1Chittagong 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 - - -Chittagong H. Tracts b/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 - -Bandarban 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -

0.2Total: 967.4 1095.4 1211.4 1463.9 1042.9 1091.1 1048.0 1022 890 1004.3 1065 1175.6 1131.1

a/ Kishoreganl included in Mymensinghbl Khagrachari and Rangamati included in Chittagong Hill Tracts.::= Not available

- 96 -

Table 7.6JUTE PRODUCTION BY DISTRICT

1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

('000 bales of 400 lb9)

Rajshahi 1773.4 3067.2 2384.8 1616.7 1687.0 1578.7 1874.4 1839.9 1623.8 1431.7Dinajpur 177.0 215.6 242.9 250.5 179.0 126.6 189.7 169.5 115.4 119.6Rangpur 1097.7 1634.3 1447.5 917.6 897.0 877.9 1166.3 1126.4 1062.0 824.9Bogra 119.6 356.3 176.8 96.3 165.0 171.9 142.4 131.2 117.1 93.2Rajshahi 188.7 481.4 343.2 182.6 190.0 166.7 180.3 166.7 137.9 158.4Pabna 190,5 379.6 174.4 169.7 256.0 235.6 195.7 246.1 196.5 235.6

Khulna 1061.7 1571.0 1052.5 933.4 895.0 957.3 1101.1 1186.3 926.9 1094.0Kushtia 378.6 474.9 299.9 237.9 299.0 347.5 394.6 428.7 377.1 433.0Jessore 501.4 888.1 584.3 605.4 459.0 487.4 570.7 623.3 451.2 596.5Khulna 169.8 198.1 150.0 74.6 111.0 107.5 120.5 120.0 86.2 50.3Barisal 10.4 8.2 16.3 13.4 25.0 13.5 13.6 12.1 9.9 11.6Patuakhali 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6

Dhaka 1968.7 3427.4 2674.0 1911.2 1668.0 1850.3 2064.0 2017.2 2121.9 1796.9Jamalpur 211.5 292.6 222.4 209.7 258.0 294.9 322.6 264.1 257.4 262.0Mymensingh 614.9 1207.0 893.1 535.3 377.0 377.3 446.7 388.4 323.1 241.4Tangail 194.7 340.5 289.7 259.6 237.0 313.2 334.6 359.3 379.8 275.3Dhaka 431.3 811.2 583.5 379.6 346.0 323.2 385.0 338.9 387.9 307.8Faridpur 516.3 776.1 685.3 527.0 450.0 541.7 575.1 666.5 773.7 710.4

Chittagong 307.1 594.4 642.2 239.7 186.0 252.9 262.3 229.8 246.7 130.0Sylhet 10.1 46.7 23.8 8.7 3.0 8.1 7.7 3.6 5.3 5.6Comilla 286.3 530.5 610.7 223.9 175.0 227.1 244.6 220.7 237.8 122.3Noakhali 10.0 16.1 7.4 6.8 8.0 11.1 3.4 5.3 3.2 1.6Chittagong 0.2 0.0 0.0 - - - - -Chittagong H. Tracts 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.3 - 6.6 6.6 0.2 0.4 0.5

Total: 5110.9 8660.0 6753.5 4701.0 4436.0 4639.2 5301.8 5273.2 4919.3 4452.6

('000 metric tons)

Rajshahi 321.8 556.5 432.7 293.3 306.1 286.4 340.0 333.7 288.6 267.2Dinajpur 32.1 39.1 44.1 45.4 32.5 23.0 34.4 30.7 20.5 22.3Rangpur 199.2 296.5 262.6 166.5 162.7 159.3 211.6 204.4 188.8 153.9Bogra 21.7 64.6 32.1 17.5 29.9 31.2 25.8 23.8 20.8 17.4Rajshahi 34.2 87.3 62.3 33.1 34.5 30.2 32.7 30.2 23.6 29.6Pabna 34.6 68.9 31.6 30.8 46.4 42.7 35.5 44.6 34.9 44.0

Khulna 192.6 285.0 191.0 169.4 162.4 173.7 199.8 215.3 164.8 204.2Kushtia 68.7 86.2 54.4 43.2 54.2 63.0 71.6 77.8 67.1 80.8Jessore 91.0 161.1 106.0 109.8 83.3 88.4 103.5 113.1 80.2 111.3Khulna 30.8 35.9 27.2 13.5 20.1 19.5 21.9 21.8 15.3 9.4Barisal 1.9 1.5 3.0 2.4 4.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.2Patuakhali 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5

Dhaka 357.2 621.9 485.2 346.8 302.6 335.7 374.5 366.0 377.4 335.4Jamalpur 38.4 53.1 40.4 38.0 46.8 53.5 58.5 47.9 45.8 48.9Mymensingh 111.6 219.0 162.0 97.1 68.4 68.5 81.1 70.5 57.5 45.1Tangail 35.3 61.8 52.6 47.1 43.0 56.8 60.7 65.2 67.5 51.4Dhaka 78.3 147.2 105.9 68.9 62.8 58.6 69.9 61.5 69.0 57.4Faridpur 93.7 140.8 124.3 95.6 81.6 98.3 104.3 120.9 137.6 132.6

Chittagong 55.7 107.8 116.5 43.5 33.7 45.9 47.6 41.6 43.8 24.1Sylhet 1.8 8.5 4.3 1.6 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.0Comilla 51.9 96.3 110.8 40.6 31.8 41.2 44.4 40.0 42.3 22.8Noakhali 1.8 2.9 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.3Chittagong 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Chittagong H. Tracts 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total: 927.3 1571.2 1225.3 852.9 804.9 841.7 961.9 956.6 874.6 830.9

Note: i Kishoreganj included in Mymensingh.ii) Bandarban, Khagrachari and Rangamati included in Chittagong Hill Tracts.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 97 -

Table 7.7IRRIGATION SUMMARY1'000 hectares)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92

BY METHOD

Modern methods 1340 1506 1705 1721 1841 2390 2577 2756 2695Tubewelbs 421 667 879 963 982 1467 1512 1676 1782 1982Low-lift pumps 763 667 681 609 660 527 658 657 674 G8aBWD8 gravity schemes 156 172 145 149 199 396 407 423 239

Traditional methods 549 586 513 526 557 353 569 603 570Swing-baskets 87 84 79 84 94 238 a/Doons 300 238 184 170 179 n.a. a/Canals 8 134 147 163 155 115 170 176 173 171Other 154 130 103 109 129 n.a. 399 427 397 392

Total, net 1889 2092 2218 2247 2398 2743 3146 3359 3265of which:

modern 1%) 71.0 72.0 76.9 76.6 76.8 87.1 81.9 82.0 82.5traditional (%1 29.0 28.0 23.1 23.4 23.2 12.9 18.1 18.0 17.5

BY CROP

Aus 128 145 141 165 164 119 145 142 138 153Aman 199 159 156 190 190 160 211 214 213 237Boro 1165 1198 1285 1259 1363 1678 1867 2050 2128 2315Wheat 198 214 283 267 264 196 261 277 282 260Other cereals 4 6 3 3 3 a/ a/ 4 4 4

Pulses 2 2 3 4 3 a/ a/ 3 2 2Oilseeds 5 7 11 12 11 18 12 12 12 13Potato 75 74 70 68 68 57 77 79 82 SOVegetables 51 44 49 53 57 34 63 70 77 77Sugarcane 7 8 8 11 11 7 12 13 10 9Cotton 3 7 4 3 4 4 5 5 5Others 53 56 60 63 61 79 88 67 73 75

Total, gross 1889 1920 2073 2098 2199 2348 2740 2936 3026 3230

Errors and omissions 0 -39 1 0 0

IRRIGATED AREA AS PERCENT OF TOTAL AREA UNDER PARTICULAR CROP

Aus 4.0 4.6 4.5 5.8 5.6 4.3 3.4 6.3 6.5 aAman 3.2 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 4.1 3.7 3.7 4.2Boro 79.5 85.5 81.6 82.1 82.5 86.4 76.5 81.6 83.5 87.9Wheat 37.3 40.7 41.9 49.4 45.1 32.8 46.6 46.8 47.1 46.3Other cereals 27.3 3.9 1.8 1.9 2.3 n.a. n.a. 5.7 5.6 6.4

Pulses 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 n.s. 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.2Olseeds 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 3.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4Potato 66.4 67.3 63.1 62.4 64.2 46.3 69.4 67.5 66.1 62.5Vegetables 52.0 32.4 35.5 37.6 39.3 n.e. n.a. 31.7 34.7 44.4Sugarcane 3.9 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.7 4.0 7.0 7 5.2 4.8Cotton 16.8 41.2 36.4 17.6 30.8 23.5 26.3 26.3 24.6

a/ Included under 'others'Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Note: Irrigated area end percentage of total area under a particular crophas been changed due to the Agriculture census, 1983-84.

- 98 -

Table 7.8COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER DISTRIBUTION BY TYPE AND REGIONCDDO metric tonsl

1984/85 1985/88 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

BY TYPE

Urea 831.8 794.9 915.1 1028.5 1135.1 1367.7 1323.3 1529.5 1547.4 1579.0Tripl, super-phosphate ITSPI 345.7 297.4 335.7 389.8 416.0 480.7 514.7 458.7 d/ 407.0 234.2Di-ammmonium phosphate IDAPI 0.4 0.10 65.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 28.7Muriste of potash IMPI 60.3 59.90 0.0 86.0 94.2 a/ 119.0 149.7 138.9 126.1 103.9Hyper-phosphate [HPI 0.3 0.20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Super phosphate ISPJ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 34.2 119.8 170.6Ammonium sulfate IASI 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 b/ b/ 0.8 4.5 5.0 10.0Potassium sulfate [PSI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.6 70.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NitroPhosKe INPKI 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Triple phosphate [TPI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 b/ b/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Zinc sulfate and oxy-sulfete 1.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.8 5.2 2.7 3.8 0.7 5.2Gypsum 1.4 3.3 2.8 1.4 b/ bl 101.7 115.4 108.1 86.1Others 3.1 2.3 - 0.1

Total 1251.2 1156.5 1320.9 1513.9 1709.7 2043.0 2107.4 2291.3 2316.1 2217.8

BY REGION /d

Rajshahi 404.1 390.0 454.4 510.6 544.5 422.0 157.1 844.8 389.2 594.9Dinajpur 79.2 57.40 65.30 89.3 102.1 89.5 34.6 n.a. n.e. 77.1Rengpur 84.1 83.30 98.80 92.6 97.1 93.1 30.2 n.a. n.a. 132.3Bogra 84.3 93.10 113.30 100.3 118.4 94.5 24.4 n.e. n.a. 146.8Rajshahi 94.9 80.40 96.20 93.6 106.9 71.7 38.9 n.e. n.a. 94.1Pabna 61.8 75.80 80.80 134.8 120.0 73.2 29.0 n.e. n.s. 144.6

Khulna 188.9 166.6 200.3 258.7 314.3 212.3 307.4 625.2 414.4 401.0Kushtis 60.5 55.4 60.3 78.6 88.8 34.6 14.7 n.e. n.a. 55.4Jessore 66.6 52.9 68.8 79.8 64.0 21.1 4.8 n.e. n.e. 229.9Khulna 27.8 28.1 29.4 51.0 109.1 126.2 272.5 n.a. n.e. 68.3Barisel 27.7 25.3 33.5 38.9 43.1 19.5 10.5 n.a. n.a. 40.0Patuakhali 6.2 4.9 8.3 10.4 9.3 10.9 4.9 n.e. n.e. 7.4

Dhake 355.3 352.8 360.6 407.1 418.5 165.2 434.6 516.4 714.3 672.2Jamalpur 42.1 43.0 47.5 53.2 56.6 29.8 6.5 n.a. n.a. 47.1Mymensingh 118.3 100.4 122.2 131.4 111.4 39.6 16.6 n.e. n.e. 151.1Tangeil 50.5 41.2 51.9 44.2 55.8 19.1 3.9 n.e. n.a. 48.2Dhaka 113.9 139.0 107.9 141.6 155.1 59.4 400.2 n.e. n.e. 357.9Faridpur 30.5 29.2 31.1 36.7 39.6 17.3 7.4 n.e. n.e. 67.9

Chittagong 311.9 247.0 305.6 337.4 270.1 970.2 1208.0 296.8 803.3 549.7Sylhet 46.6 35.3 43.3 54.5 45.8 84.2 99.8 n.e. n.a. 58.2Comilla 127.7 105.4 134.6 147.4 110.6 338.7 476.9 n.e. n.e. 244.0Noakhdli 39.4 34.7 44.9 57.1 48.0 11.8 14.2 n.e. n.s. 59.3Chittagong 85.2 58.0 71.8 65.4 50.6 529.8 611.9 n.e. n.s. 186.9Chittagong HT 13.1 13.6 11.0 13.0 15.1 5.7 5.2 n.a. n.a. 21.30

Total 1260.2 1158.4 1320.9 1513.8 1547.4 c/ 2836.7 2107.1 2283.3 2321.2 2217.8

e/ Including PS, TP and other types of fertilizer.bl Included under PSc/ Does not include 162.13 thousend MT sold directly by BCIC for which districtwise breakdown is not eveileble.dl Detailed district wise offtske from 1991/92 cannot be shown accurately in an open market situation where

distributors are free to buy and sell wherever there is demand.

Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation,IFDC/ Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 7.9PUBLIC FOODGRAIN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATIONS('000 metric tons)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993194 1994/95(estimate)

OpeningStocks 616 611 800 1017 976 751 1498 909 1148 1040 1162 1117 541Domestic Procurement 192 268 349 349 188 375 416 959 783 1016 232 166 400Imports 1843 2028 2590 1202 1767 2922 2137 1534 1577 1563 828 654 1084

Total Availability 2651 2907 3739 2568 2931 4048 4051 3402 3508 3619 2222 1937 2025

Statutory rationing 308 293 282 160 210 189 203 156 235 169 56 0 0Priority categories /a 648 641 712 467 668 585 724 623 673 976 270 200 225Modified rationing 368 399 465 103 257 307 334 0 0 0 41 35 51for Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 200Relief 156 120 452 205 248 603 815 881 918 427 248 340 339Food-for-Work & Canal Diggin 338 441 458 468 480 468 611 457 458 498 368 425 481Marketing Operations /b 0 51 8 8 40 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0OpenMarketSales/c 118 107 201 129 217 344 255 47 87 275 72 296 224

Total Distribution 1936 2052 2578 1540 2120 2496 2942 2164 2371 2345 1073 1376 1520

Losses 104 57 139 52 62 55 148 90 97 66 30 20 33Exports & repayments in kind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Closing Stocks 611 800 1017 976 751 1498 909 1148 1040 1162 1117 541 472

/a Includes: essential priorities; other priorities; large employers; & direct sales to flour mills./b Marketing operations involve direct sale of grains to dealers at subsidized prices./c OMS in paddy and rice were initiated during 1981/82; wheat OMS began in 1978/79.

Source: Food Planning and Monitoring Unit, Ministry of Food.

Table 7.10SEASONALITY OF PUBLIC FOODGRAIN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OFFTAKE('000 metric tons)

Month 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95

July 87 223 84 92 166 112 145 140 170 82 52 63August 99 258 93 109 219 148 162 145 184 82 45 54September 171 292 125 151 295 248 159 155 228 81 59 97October 214 286 164 240 292 278 187 236 295 75 111 141November 175 262 132 196 233 255 172 216 216 59 195 152December 129 236 115 121 217 235 148 182 162 58 126 145January 162 251 148 197 204 316 242 262 223 108 135 148February 218 222 155 220 234 343 225 241 234 134 114 175March 232 196 159 246 249 329 258 240 181 130 140 167April 227 152 161 243 187 300 191 178 173 106 159 168May 202 122 139 171 121 238 152 212 164 106 129 141June 135 77 65 135 78 140 123 163 115 52 111 69

Total 2051 2577 1540 2121 2495 2942 2164 2370 2345 1073 1376 1520

(Monthly Ave 171 215 128 177 208 245 180 198 195 89 115 127

Source: Ministry of Food and World Food Programme, Dhaka.Food Planning and Monitoring Unit.

Table 7.11SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION OF RAW JUTE1'000 bales)

1982/83 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Opening stocks 1850 730 1000 4265 3899 3207 2343 1095 1244 1352 1366Production, total 4920 5150 8660 5461 4338 4439 4639 5302 5273 4919 4346

- Jute 4881 5111 8610 5422 4310 4403 4604 5262 5223 4849 4310-Mesta 39 39 50 39 28 36 35 40 50 70 36

Adjustment /a 594 612 14 - - - - 330

Market arrivals 5514 4538 8458 5261 3968 4039 4216 4682 4543 4619 3946

Total supply 7364 5268 9458 9526 7867 7246 6559 5777 5787 5971 5312Mill consumption 3329 3050 2850 3356 3224 3168 3327 2888 2870 2993 3091- BJMC mills 3150 - - 1866 1857 1798 1827 1490 1393 1571 1559- Private mills 179 1490 1367 1370 1500 1398 1477 1422 1532Other consumption 400 400 250 200 400 400 400 400 400 300 400Losses 50 20 30 30 61 118 96 44 32 43 42

Total domestic uses 3779 3470 3130 3586 3685 3686 3823 3332 3302 3336 3533

Registered exports 2246 1410 2301 2241 1345 1617 2064 1600 1533 1569 1198

Total disposition 6025 4880 5431 5827 5030 5303 5887 4932 4835 4905 4731

Closing stocks 1339 1000 4279 3899 3207 2343 1095 1244 1352 1366 981

Total supply = market arrivals + opening stocks.Total domestic uses = mill consumption + other consumption + losses.Total disposition = total domestic uses + registered exports.

/a Difference between estimated crop size and estimated market arrivals.

Source: Ministry of Jute,iDepartment of Jute)

Table 7.12PUBLIC FOODGRAIN PROCUREMENT BY DISTRICT('000 metric tons, rice equivalent)

Division/District 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Rajshahi 227.30 260.69 281.27 159.90 303.10 326.16 854.40 721.86 909.97 141.60 193.60

Dinajpur 99.50 81.78 96.70 42.20 85.90 90.43 280.10 260.42 350.16 52.23 97.29

Rangpur 67.00 65.34 62.00 34.00 62.60 52.04 118.70 116.39 139.69 23.80 20.14

Bogra 35.80 51.76 57.25 51.90 83.90 131.69 277.60 215.42 244.81 33.77 44.32

Rajshahi 14.20 36.76 44.90 22.70 53.20 41.25 138.90 89.25 112.84 18.37 24.17

Pabna 10.80 25.05 20.42 9.10 17.50 10.75 39.10 40.37 62.47 13.43 7.68

Khulna 13.85 32.90 31.93 4.30 27.50 56.50 38.10 29.00 53.89 0.10 0.96

Kushtia 1.43 8.04 6.42 1.20 4.20 10.04 1.80 1.20 5.54 0.00 0.00

Jessore 5.10 21.50 13.40 2.50 20.80 41.08 22.90 15.06 28.10 0.09 0.30

Khulna 1.02 2.55 1.67 0.10 2.10 5.20 9.60 12.60 19.61 0.01 0.66

Barisal 2.40 0.76 4.09 0.50 0.40 0.17 1.90 0.07 0.45 0.00 0.00

Patuakhali 3.90 0.05 6.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00

Dhaka 16.33 29.63 20.59 8.90 20.10 18.22 55.40 25.06 31.37 0.04 0.02

Jamalpur /a 5.10 4.32 0.76 0.10 1.80 1.00 6.90 2.08 4.36 0.04 0.02

Mymensingh 8.40 9.66 3.67 7.80 15.30 15.32 44.40 21.36 25.21 0.00 0.00

Tangail 1.41 9.44 8.00 0.10 1.80 0.56 2.30 1.01 1.07 0.00 0.00

Dhaka 1.20 1.84 2.16 0.40 0.60 0.14 1.50 0.52 0.69 0.00 0.00

Faridpur 0.23 4.38 6.00 0.50 0.60 1.21 0.30 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00

Chittagong 9.17 25.80 15.30 15.40 23.80 15.31 11.80 9.76 10.60 0.40 2.98

Sylhet 3.10 6.47 2.24 9.30 17.00 9.33 6.30 7.88 7.88 0.37 0.00

Comilla 3.00 15.90 9.00 4.50 2.90 2.35 3.30 0.38 0.36 0.00 0.00

Noakhali 1.60 0.90 1.08 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.40 0.16 0.02 0.00 0.00

Chittagong 0.27 0.08 1.37 0.70 0.90 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.03 2.38

Chittagong Hill Tracts 1.20 2.44 1.60 0.80 2.90 3.15 1.80 1.33 1.94 0.00 0.60

Total 266.65 349.02 349.08 188.50 374.50 416.10 959.70 785.80 1005.83 142.14 197.56

/a Jamalpur was a subdivision of Mymensingh until December 26, 1978.

Note: 1.0 ton rice equivalent = 1.0 ton wheat = 1.5 ton paddy.Source: Ministry of Food.

Table 7.13PUBLIC PROCUREMENT OF AMAN RICE AND PADDY BY DISTRICT(metric tons, rice equivalent)

1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Rajshahi 60308 71393 71651 122341 21179 45562 49382 384244 160075 327936 140661 12725Dinajpur 36537 43668 44602 62419 12614 23455 26659 163072 86088 161210 52233 5656Rangpur 15847 11275 9436 27105 7777 8611 9486 65869 36553 59757 23680 258Bogra 4422 8219 5424 17105 374 7137 11125 90797 25445 56648 33777 3038Raishahi 3398 7512 12170 14277 357 6333 2102 51578 8666 27627 17646 3637Pabna 104 719 19 1435 57 26 10 12928 3323 22694 13325 136

Khulna 8361 7374 397 10896 55 472 319 17511 1344 27299 53 247Kushtia 53 58 25 111 1 37 17 672 51 3195 0 0Jessore 65 40 46 532 0 288 229 7372 283 14720 0 247Khulna 258 950 35 91 1 34 6 5755 944 8730 35 0Barisal 1966 2414 240 3811 34 107 63 1827 66 455 18 0Patuakhali 6019 3912 51 6351 19 6 4 1885 0 199 0 0

Dhaka 11162 1646 1385 1822 23 462 16 13819 139 5755 4 0Jamalpur /a 1502 522 44 556 0 10 0 3798 103 1696 4 0Mymensingh 9022 773 1057 616 6 365 16 8816 36 3829 0 0Tangail 61 27 63 21 1 15 0 1071 0 64 0 0Dhaka 249 170 124 0 4 60 0 103 0 166 0 0Faridpur 328 154 97 629 12 12 0 31 0 0 0 0

Chittagong 13549 3367 2440 3496 1262 2148 2987 3180 1116 1991 0 2982Sylhet 5365 246 33 284 2 22 2 1157 0 4 0 0Comilla 2092 359 200 42 19 74 0 594 0 0 0 0Noakhali 3405 1562 601 1074 11 13 25 422 0 25 0 0Chittagong 1222 130 57 656 720 2 376 0 0 237 0 2379Chittagong Hill Tracts 1465 1070 1549 1440 510 2037 2584 1007 1116 1725 0 603

Total 93380 83780 75873 138555 22519 48644 52704 418754 162674 362981 140718 15954

Note: 1.0 ton rice equivalent = 1.0 ton wheat = 1.5 ton paddy.Source: Ministry of Food.

- 104 -

Tinbb 7.14PUBLIC PROCUREMENT OF BORO AND IRRI RICE AND PADDY AND WHEATImertric tons, rice rquSvaelntl

1982t83 1983184 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989190 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993194(seasonality)/b

BORO AND IRRI

Rashr# 44695 37185 41249 70850 94584 198243 225801 435410 511543 511285 820 163905Dlnasjpur 11070 13998 11800 19813 17089 47572 56650 103186 159253 159253 0 82120Rengpur 8185 10084 4235 11372 11828 29119 39926 41607 57163 57111 27 15578Bogra 13664 7603 18755 22785 44178 71093 119291 182573 182940 182940 0 40432Ra*ha 10729 2203 4110 13446 17828 39778 36849 82149 77106 76900 683 18522Pabna 4047 3297 2349 3434 3661 10681 9934 25895 35081 35081 110 7253

Khulna 636 7 921 26 929 3275 7970 13581 21573 16819 50 0Kughtla 55 0 85 0 247 147 40 534 647 2096 0 0Jmoro 0 0 26 6 311 2130 7765 9879 10934 9563 0 0Khulna 575 7 705 0 110 627 58 3116 9992 5160 50 08 rbal 6 0 105 20 248 331 107 52 0 0 0 0Patuekhali 0 0 0 0 13 40 0 0 0 0 0 0

Dheka 17950 9744 9144 4850 8407 16848 17875 41618 24754 24754 0 25Jemropur a 5228 1831 82 45 69 527 952 3084 1892 1892 0 25Mymensingh 7832 6170 6233 2755 7810 14787 16251 35552 21328 21328 0 0Tangadl 1110 725 2020 1426 84 879 559 1272 1006 1006 0 0Dheka 3779 1018 672 449 287 412 83 1415 521 521 0 0Farldpur 1 0 137 175 157 243 30 295 7 7 0 0

Chintgong 9829 3740 5069 3691 10588 20690 11962 8630 8615 8616 374 1Sylhet 6486 2434 3848 1886 8035 16972 9330 5132 7878 7879 371 0Comlila 2499 1066 440 930 2180 2854 1994 2668 357 357 0 0Nookhal 18 3 302 0 113 104 7 19 162 0 0 0Chinrrgong 418 125 25 711 0 88 69 0 0 162 3 1ChIttagong HllTrects 408 112 454 164 260 672 562 811 218 218 0 0

Total 73110 50676 56383 79417 114508 239056 263608 499239 566485 546751 1244 163931

WHEAT

Raiehi 13254 109756 147642 87182 44135 59296 12138 34980 50242 70746 157 16967Dnspipur 6269 35468 25287 14464 12506 14847 5117 13828 15080 29700 5 9512Rangpur 5252 44547 51668 22629 14389 24883 2627 11220 22676 22821 102 4308logra 240 19440 27579 17363 7331 5644 1272 4464 7036 5217 0 84901*0m" 272 4387 20427 17176 4565 7118 2302 5164 3480 8311 50 2010Pabna 1221 5914 22681 15550 5364 6804 820 304 1970 4697 0 288

Khutna 3015 6270 31582 14463 3339 23885 38162 6953 6006 5022 12 712Kughtla 232 1370 7928 6313 968 4033 9978 589 498 1694 0 0Jora 2598 4848 21427 6313 2169 18415 23050 5608 3845 2443 0 49KhtAne 181 52 1811 1578 0 1436 5134 756 1663 885 12 663Bariual 4 0 416 257 202 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Patuakhell 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ohaka 1203 3323 19105 13597 427 2579 1245 62 168 863 0 0Jamuipur/a 730 2582 4193 160 55 1242 62 15 84 769 0 0Mymraldngh 14 15 2374 299 1 70 0 21 0 61 0 0Tenal 29 567 7357 6263 50 805 3 1 0 0 0 0Dhake 248 18 1040 1708 45 79 3 14 0 0 0 0Farldpur 182 141 4141 5167 276 383 1177 11 84 33 0 0

0 0Chlttagong 3956 1931 16858 8017 3S37 1003 436 16 27 0 0 0

Sy1tt 313 324 1595 71 1198 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Comilla 3643 1603 15263 7937 2333 0 436 16 27 0 0 0Noekhell 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0CSttegong 0 4 0 0 0 847 0 0 0 0 0 0Ctnagong Hll Tracts 0 0 0 0 0 156 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 23592 121280 215187 123259 51438 86763 51981 42011 56443 76631 169 17679

to Jaalrpur wee a subdivilson of Mymensingh until December 26, 1978.Note: 1.0 ton rice equivalent - 1.0 ton wheat - 1.5 ton paddy.Source: Minlstry of Food.

- 105 -

Table 8.1QUANTUM INDEX OF MEDIUM AND LARGE SCALE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES(1981/82 - 100D

Weight 1982183 1983/84 1984185 1985/86 1986187 1987/88 1988/89 1989/30 1990/31 1991/92 1992/93 1903394

FoodBeveragesandTobacco 14.9 91.9 03.3 81.1 86.1 104.0 112.6 110.2 145.2 141.6 140.0 134.8 144.6Fish & Seafood (Shrimps and Froglegs) 1.1 85.3 38.1 158.5 250.6 227.5 270.8 366.0 594.4 480.4 512.9 480.4 48.3Vegetable Oil 1.1 118.0 94.5 58.7 5G.5 77.8 116.8 97.0 117.8 113.5 118.0 39.2 87.9Tea 3.6 98.5 99.0 109.2 101.5 101.0 103.2 107.1 106.2 113.9 116.9 126.2 12S.2Flour Milling 0.6 83.6 94.2 111.6 126.0 140.2 163.4 169.3 161.1 145.1 154.2 189.3 190.4Sugar 5.7 87.9 74.8 43.8 40.8 90.0 88.2 59.1 90.9 121.7 96.7 92.7 109.5Beverage Industries 0.7 74.4 84.8 97.6 118.0 125.5 136.7 135.6 333.3 239.7 281.8 283.2 337.7Tobacco Manufactuting 2.1 88.9 93.2 91.2 91.0 93.6 88.9 87.2 77.9 86.2 80.1 73.2 76.2

Textile Wearing Apparel and Leather 41.4 100.4 104.7 133.0 133.2 184.5 1s88. 167.2 192.9 206.4 236.2 273.8 287.6Cotton textile 8.3 101.7 104.6 109.5 97.6 101.9 105.6 119.0 113.3 120.1 128.1 124.3 104.6Jute text,ile 30.2 97.2 92.8 88.6 77.1 92.0 89.9 87.2 90.1 74.0 71.0 76.0 73.9Garments 0.7 182.0 526.2 2274.8 2796.1 4962.2 4077.7 4046.3 5464.7 6894.1 8645.6 10579.4 11702.4Leather & leather products 1.0 88.1 133.7 117.4 101.3 207.1 222.3 198.2 243.9 166.9 184.0 215.2 254.3Mfg. of footwear 0.6 138.5 150.1 181.4 210.9 210.9 223.3 80.2 79.9 104.9 79.8 88.4 108.7Jute bailing 0.8 131.8 110.2 103.4 231.4 195.1 178.6 202.1 172.2 199.9 203.5 147.2 109.4

Manufacture of Wood and WoodProducts Including Furniture 0.7 132.7 152.0 189.3 187.5 186.3 199.1 187.1 180.4 178.9 178.6 189.3 200.6

Wood product except furniture 0.5 130.3 146.8 172.7 179.7 171.8 183.8 160.3 137.7 130.2 128.1 125.4 144.9Wooden furniture 0.2 137.8 163.5 180.0 204.4 217.9 232.9 252.2 273.8 278.9 279.0 304.6 322.1

Manufacture of Paper Products:Printing & Publishing 3.0 93.9 104.7 133.4 146.4 153.0 163.0 161.3 185.6 199.5 249.6 282.2 268.9

Mtg. of paper & paper products 1.7 76.3 81.2 119.2 '27.9 128.5 129.9 88.3 130.4 126.1 123.7 125.7 126.2Printing, publishing & allied product 1.4 115.3 133.1 1 0.6 168.8 182.6 203.1 323.5 252.4 288.4 402.2 402.4 435.2

Manufacture of Chemicals andChemical Petroleum & Rubber 23.2 101.1 140.8 137.7 149.2 124.6 155.5 181.5 175.4 173.6 200.3 239.8 289.4

Drugs and pharmaceuticals 10.2 84.1 92.0 98.2 103.1 53.1 53.8 128.3 83.1 97.5 127.9 163.9 183.0Mfg. of industrial chemicals 7.4 103.0 191.0 192.2 213.6 201.2 310.1 204.2 345.0 328.8 307.6 433.5 407.3

Fertilizef 6.5 109.2 197.2 194.5 227.4 211.2 338.7 389.2 389.9 388.7 417.3 493.3 868.9Mfg. of other chemical products 4.5 279.9 188.4 136.8 147.9 153.2 131.6 141.1 117.0 105.9 113.7 123.8 126.1Petroleum refining 0.2 81.0 89.9 83.1 83.7 85.8 83.7 92.4 86.7 95.7 89.6 116.5 105.2Mfg, of rubber products 0.8 138.4 153.7 154.7 183.7 173.5 168.6 127.2 130.3 103.8 77.0 85.0 80.8

Manufacture of Non-MetalicMineral Products 1.7 111.8 83.8 100.1 186.5 213.4 216.9 239.2 239.7 217.5 189.5 210.0 212.4

Pottery china and earthen ware 0.3 190.2 122.2 139.5 537.7 537.7 318.8 837.2 823.1 787.2 527.8 634.6 601.7Glass and glass products 0.4 96.9 109.1 112.0 97.2 145.8 192.8 200.6 132.4 101.2 190.2 200.4 180.9Othernon-metalicrmineral products 1.0 93.8 61.2 83.9 115.7 141.8 195.8 106.8 104.0 90.4 85.4 82.8 113.4

Bricks 0.3 93.5 81.2 109.5 180.1 256.9 444.1 108.1 107.4 105.9 89.7 130.3 139.2Cement 0.7 94.0 53.0 73.6 89.5 95.0 95.0 105.1 103.4 84.2 83.5 83.8 103.4

Basic Metal Industries 9.8 60.4 81.6 82.1 84.4 58.4 52.8 60.2 63.5 57.5 39.4 42.1 73.1Iron and steel basic industries 9.8 60.4 61.6 82.1 84.4 58.4 52.6 60.2 63.5 57.5 39.4 42.1 73.1

Manufacture of Fabricated MetalProducts Machinery & Equipments 5.6 119.9 128.2 159.3 161.5 153.2 148.2 144.3 149.1 134.2 144.2 146.0 144.5

Fabricated metal 0.5 91.3 104.9 135.9 204.2 204.1 132.3 121.3 121.0 121.5 123.7 112.7 107.0Fabricate metal & equipment 0.6 92.0 149.6 228.8 221.6 225.1 248.4 225.6 183.5 181.0 188.9 171.0 267.4Machinery Inon-electricl 1.6 198.1 144.0 186.7 141.9 135,8 140.1 135.2 103.2 118.0 132.3 183.2 104.5Electric machinery 2.2 102.7 129.4 153.5 161.3 162.8 155.7 150.4 195.1 149.2 149.3 164.3 177.1Transport equipments 0.8 48.8 75.9 124.8 129.2 74.7 78.0 88.1 106.6 98.1 100.6 92.3 66.1

TOTAL 100.0 97.0 108.0 123.0 126.0 145.0 147.0 151.0 170.0 174.0 188.8 213.8 231.1

Source: CM.I. iCurrent Productionl, BBS.P: Provisional

- 106 -

Table 8.2PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GOODS

Goods Units 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94(P)

Shrimps & froglegs 000 MT 5 5 5 6 6 6Sugar 000 MT 110 184 246 195 187 221Veg.oils 000 MT 25 30 29 30 10 13Tea 000 MT 42 41 44 46 49 50Beverage M doz.bt 7 11 8 10 10 12

Cotton yarn M KG 49 51 56 61 61 52Cotton cloth M meters 65 69 60 59 45 30Jute goods 000 MT 509 528 434 416 446 433Garments M doz 8 11 14 18 22 24Leather M sq meter 12 15 10 11 13 15

Paper 000 MT 86 93 90 88 90 90

Fertilizer 000 MT 1598 1621 1533 1736 2051 2366Soap & detergent 000 MT 37 36 30 30 34 33Petro products 000 MT 1048 984 1086 1017 1321 1147Footwear M doz pr 386 397 316 235 259 246

Cement 000 MT 344 337 275 272 207 318

Steel ingots 000 MT 86 75 58 37 7 6

Textile machinery 000 NO. 1965 1314 3580 4484 4129 387

Radio 000 NO. 102 68 21 16 7 3TV 000 NO. 79 83 57 44 61 77Telephone 000 NO. 26 38 33 26 31 16Dry cell Battery M NO. 66 74 62 58 58 60Bicycles 000 NO. 30 34 34 17 13 13

Note on units used: M = million, MT = metric ton, NO. = numberbt = bottles, pr = pair

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 8.3CHITTAGONG EXPORT PROCESSING ZONE STATISTICS

Actual Investment Actual LocalYear No. of Enterprise Million US$ Employment Export (Million US$)

Current Cumulative Current Cumulative Current Cumulative Current Cumulative

1983-84 2 2 0.874 0.874 624 624 0.164 0.164

1984-85 4 6 1.598 2.472 1156 1780 4.450 4.614

1985-86 8 14 3.602 6.074 732 2512 7.593 12.207

1986-87 2 16 6.631 12.705 728 3240 15.266 27.473

1987-88 2 18 1.791 14.496 198 3438 13.927 41.4

1988-89 4 22 2.722 17.218 769 4207 16.076 57.476

1989-90 6 28 8.580 25.798 2794 7001 34.212 91.688 O

1990-91 13 41 22.054 47.852 2363 9364 47.986 139.674

1991-92 7 48 23.659 71.511 5250 14614 76.991 216.665

1992-93 6 54 22.048 93.559 3114 17728 127.049 343.714

1993-94 9 57 29.181 122.74 3086 20814 140.353 484.067

Source: Bangladesh Export Processing Zone Authority.

TAble 8.4NATURAL GAS STATISTICS(milion MMCF\

1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

PRODUCTIONSylhet 3080 3795 104 121 97 64 58 55 55 1000Chhatak 1187 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0RaSh;dpur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12000Titas 57367 45030 1507 1706 1991 2217 2326 2605 2869 98000Kailastila 5007 4265 167 173 199 221 234 207 224 10000Habigani 18124 32736 958 965 916 844 783 799 1294 50000Bakhrabad 6693 15290 686 110 1164 1371 1459 1499 1377 47000Semutang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Kutubdia /a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Begumgan; 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Feni 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 167 154 6000Beanibazar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Kamta 3134 5141 132 110 46 37 33 5 0 0Jalalabad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Belabo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

00Fenchuganj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Meghna 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 94592 106257 3555 4175 4413 4754 4893 15337 5973 224000

CONSUMPTION BY SECTORPower 38293 39778 1468 1754 1849 2099 2308 2516 2647 97300Fertilizers 30896 35401 1067 1443 1518 1591 1533 1717 1952 74500Industrial 13362 16618 553 431 426 453 437 421 454 20200Commercial 2232 2456 77 83 89 89 88 82 84 2900Households 6320 6797 191 216 261 273 284 324 375 15400

Total 91103 101050 3357 3987 4143 4505 4850 5060 5512 210300

ContinUed

Table 8.4 (Continued)

MEMORANDUM ITEMS:

EstimatedRecoverable Methane Calorific

Year of Gas Content Value GrossField Discovery Reserves (vol %) (BTU/CFT)

Sylhet 1955 266 96.63 1050.68Chhatak 1959 1140 97.90 1005.71Rashidpur 1960 1309 98.00 1012Titas 1962 2100 97.33 1031.55Kailastila 1962 2520 95.57 1056Habiganj 1963 1895 97.60 1023.91Bakhrabad 1969 867 94.20 1057.73Semutang 1969 98 96.94Kutubdia /a 1977 468 95.72 1041.66Begumganj 1977 15 95.46 1045.61Feni 1981 80 95.71 1049.13Kamta 1982 195 95.36 1061.95Beanibazar 1981 114 93.68 1043.33Fenchuganj 1988 210 95.66Jalalabad 1989 900 93.5Belabo 1990 126Meghna 1990 104Total 12416

BBL = barrel.BTU = British Thermal Unit is = 0.25 kilocaloriesCFT = cubic feet.MMCF = million standard cubic feet.BCF = Billion Cubic FeetNote: (i) The estimated recoverable gas reservesis on the basis of abandonment ofpressure a

(ii) Net gas reserve position after adjustment of cumulative production till January 1 99

Table 8.5ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTIONIGWH EXCEPT AS NOTED]

1985 86 1986 87 1987g88 1988,'89 1989 90 1990'91 1991 92 1992 93 1993/94

Installed capacity [MWI 1171.2 1607.2 2146 2 2365.3 2352.2 2349.9 2397.7 2607.7 2607.7

Gross Generation 4800.3 5586.9 6541.4 7114.8 7731.9 8270.2 8890.0 9206.4 9784.8Net Generation 4572.3 5301.9 6140.6 6717.1 7301.6 7823.4 8378.5 8699.6 9219.2

Final consumption 3306.8 3485.3 3772.7 4695.0 4704.7 4870.6 6021.4 6906.3 7457.5Billed consumption [million Taka] 5771.6 6278.4 7661.8 9674.0 10291.0 11498.4 12220.1 13295.9 14266.4

CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

Domestic 715.8 825.6 885.4 1044 1164.7 1383.5 1070.2 1089.4 1205.8Commercial 278.1 308.7 391.1 531.4 380.1 425.0 421.2 362.3 356.5Industrial 1562.5 1728.1 1843.2 2330.5 2504.4 2256.3 1471.1 1255.8 1197.2Agriculture 51.1 56.2 62.9 95.3 73.7 91.4 85.3 101.1 138.9Others /a 699.3 565.8 590.2 693.8 581.9 714.4 2973.5 4097.8 4559.1

Total 3306.8 3484.4 3772.8 4695.0 4704.8 4870.6 6021.3 6906.4 7457.5

Losses (Utility only)/b 1493.5 2101.6 2768.6 2419.7 3027.2 3399.6 2868.6 2300.1 2327.3as % of gross generation 31.1 37.6 42.3 34.0 39.1 41.1 32.3 25 23.8

/a Includes bulk sale to DESA (Dhaka Electric Supply Authority seperated from the Bangladesh Power DevelopmentBoard and functioning since October 1 1991); and REB (Rural Electrification Board).

/b Includes station auxiliary use.

Source: Bangladesh Power Development Board.

Table 8.6RAILWAY STATISTICS

1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

Route length [km] /a 2871 2818 2792 2746 2746 2746 2746 2746 2706Broad gauge 978 980 970 924 924 924 924 924 883.59Meter gauge 1892 1838 1822 1822 1822 1822 1822 1822 1822Narrow gauge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Locomotives, total 288 290 291 291 307 307 307 308 287Diesel, total 288 290 291 291 307 307 307 308 287

Broad gauge 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 73Meter gauge 213 215 216 216 232 232 232 233 214

Steam, total /b 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Broad gauge 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Meter gauge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Broad gauge 4080 4073 4073 4073 4073 3798 3757 3711 3653Metergauge 12434 12357 12283 12174 11869 11738 11539 11451 11143Total units 16514 15430 18356 15957 15942 15536 15296 15162 14706Total 4-wheeler units 19719 19629 19545 19424 19077 18673 18634 18292 17977

Freight Carried 1'000 metric tonsl 3009 2341 1984 2518 2493 2410 2517 2506 2395Rice 274 203 132 185 192 186 345 422 279Paddy 75 51 47 17 34 20 15 14 11Wheat 649 427 373 643 678 471 571 593 303

Raw jute 210 171 166 143 133 113 79 80 99Jute goods 29 12 14 21 15 9 6 12 12Sugarcane 182 218 254 307 143 285 299 74 44Sugar 61 37 20 61 32 13 17 19 16Salt 105 82 62 61 65 65 58 57 49

Fertilizer 496 404 317 362 427 408 248 403 398Cement 137 118 77 83 91 132 114 108 331Coal 32 59 34 72 69 99 74 63 142Petroleumproducts/c 84 100 75 117 88 120 119 103 141

Total ton-km 812897 812225 502594 678267 685939 643478 650933 718388 641442

Fuel Consumption [metric tons]Coal 15704 14763 1707 1180 1422 1766 1399 1883 1220Diesel oil 47471 44696 50417 50344 50238 49902 45957 44374 39942Fumace oil 3236 1122 839 927 354 808 548 559 509

/a Total track mileage in 1978/79 was 4503 km./b Including 6 narrow gauge steam locomotives./c Excluding fuel for the railways and for the military.Source: Ministry of Communications.

Table 8.7TRANSPORT STATISTICS

1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

INLAND WATER TRANSPORT

BIWTC FleetTotal 591 586 555 544 533 524 484 430 419 378 343 329 323

Self-propelled barges 6 6 6 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6Inland & river barges b/ 287 255 229 232 246 239 246 198 194 166 147 136 131Inland tugs 29 29 29 27 25 24 24 22 34 33 30 30 29Mainland tugs 23 23 23 21 19 19 19 19 16 19 18 17 17Coasters c/ 23 23 25 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18

Country BoatsCargo 94 96 98 202 209 217 226 236 246 256 261 281 289Passenger 177 180 183 374 389 404 421 437 456 475 484 521 537

ROAD TRANSPORT STATISTICS

Road Mileage, total a/ 3536 4095 4618 4969 6446 6950 7341 7655 8053 8463 8765 9013 9355high 2662 2686 2968 3188 3862 4041 4213 4484 4697 4915 5007 5115 5311low 874 1409 1650 1781 2584 2909 3128 3171 3356 3548 3758 3898 4044

Buses operating, private 6362 6383 7330 15164 15971 16860 17644 18472 20948 23886 23693 23796 25194Trucks operating, private 11413 13263 14236 23430 24053 24719 25449 26154 29424 30329 31538 30994 31757Bullock carts (est.) 138 139 141 609 621 632 643 653 665 677 689 701 714

a/ Data cover only roads constructed and maintained by the Roads and Highways Department. 'High' roads areroads with cement, concrete, bituminous concrete or bituminous surface; "low' roads are roads withstone, gravel, brick, or earth surface, but which are properly aligned and have drainage structures.

b/ Including jute boats and flats.c/ Can travel up the main river routes.:: = Not available.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 113 -

Table 9.1CONSUMER PRICE INDICES

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992193 1993/94

DHAKA MIDDLE INCOME11973/74 = 1001

Food 350.47 387.89 429.46 483.42 535.4 565.88 606.2 647.9 683.8 676.5 679.2Fuel & Lighting 466.39 502.64 539.30 542.20 562.1 621.16 674.3 945.1 1008.4 1054.6 1061.2Housing 416.81 453.74 506.62 550.78 647.7 723.31 808.1 867.2 892.9 946.1 1018.7Clothing 224.98 255.15 274.23 292.59 319.1 347.98 374.5 399.4 410.3 421.6 430.9Miscellaneous 335.36 392.25 419.38 459.52 524.4 597.62 707.5 720.6 755.9 787.9 805.0

Overall 357.47 396.58 436.03 481.18 536.0 578.89 632.7 689.3 724.4 734.0 747.4Percent increase 9.7 10.9 9.9 10.4 11.4 8.0 9.3 8.9 5.1 1.3 1.8

DHAKA GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES11969/70 = 1001

Food 824.25 933.53 1024.32 1169.7 1255.5 1362.97 1461.3 1557.9 1641.6 1622.4 1703.3Fuel & Lighting 894.14 1057.34 1210.31 1263.7 1329.7 1508.50 1806.2 1908.6 1955.4 2000.7 2017.8Housing 1057.00 1113.86 1268.60 1415.9 1690.0 1882.78 2055.2 2212.9 2275.5 2433.6 2615.4Clothing 837.05 925.93 967.90 1034.3 1132.9 1269.03 1337.0 1394.2 1467.9 1537.1 1566.9Miscellaneous 712.58 795.78 817.96 877.2 977.3 1109.58 1263.4 1329.8 1416.5 1515.1 1605.3

Overall 832.94 931.47 1014.33 1129.7 1241.2 1370.48 1497.8 1592.1 1671.1 1746.4 1799.4Percent increase 9.9 11.8 8.9 11.4 9.9 10.4 9.3 6.3 5.0 4.5 3.0

CHITTAGONG INDUSTRIAL WORKERS11969/70 = 1001

Food 801.25 907.99 980.11 1116.6 1187.9 1242.69 1325.1 1417.3 1477.3 1422.0 1583.6Housing 947.63 1066.91 1264.60 1409.4 1487.6 1542.33 1701.3 1893.8 1974.9 1997.9 2030.6Clothing 929.86 1037.50 1082.19 1123.0 1139.9 1189.20 1268.5 1364.5 1383.0 1423.1 1469.9Miscellaneous 606.47 695.44 718.19 741.5 759.3 811.26 951.2 1001.4 1080.7 1135.6 1214.5

Overall 807.03 913.98 989.60 1105.20 1166.0 1219.85 1315.2 1412.7 1472.4 1459.5 1505.0Percent increase 14.1 13.3 8.3 11.7 5.5 4.6 7.8 7.4 4.2 -0.9 4.1

KHULNA INDUSTRIAL WORKERS11969/70 = 1001

Food 712.87 789.09 878.96 1029.00 1081.3 1183.39 1266.2 1290.2 1358.0 1359.3 1450.7Housing 781.90 862.94 1057.42 1269.65 1397.0 1550.49 1619.3 1847.7 1947.4 1978.6 2020.0Clothing 736.45 867.51 942.56 998.42 1012.6 1081.80 1126.5 1236.4 1249.9 1246.6 1270.7Miscellaneous 562.34 600.82 689.23 737.89 736.3 820.24 952.2 1038.8 1096.3 1162.3 1235.2

Overall 706.01 784.37 882.33 1017.75 1067.4 1169.04 1251.8 1310.4 1374.4 1384.8 1462.7Percent increase 11.0 11.1 12.5 15.3 4.9 9.5 7.1 4.7 4.9 0.8 5.6

NARAYANGANJ INDUSTRIAL WORKERS11969/70 = 1001

Food 774.72 862.97 930.58 1052.18 1159.1 1229.25 1318.1 1399.1 1456.3 1451.5 1489.2Housing 891.11 1078.96 1257.59 1371.20 1536.0 1681.96 1832.6 2058.3 2115.5 1564.3 2256.2Clothing 809.38 913.53 1035.11 1131.55 1179.8 1259.72 1332.0 1483.8 1547.3 2220.2 1587.2Miscellaneous 604.44 674.08 725.19 757.69 789.8 866.74 1013.7 1062.6 1160.0 1259.9 1280.2

Overall 770.96 868.73 950.45 1059.36 1157.8 1236.66 1335.7 1434.1 1496.3 1515.0 1549.1Percent increase 9.0 12.7 9.4 11.5 9.3 6.8 8.0 7.4 4.3 1.3 2.2

RURAL CONSUMER PRICE INDICES FORSELECTED DISTRICTS 11973/74 =1001

Dhaka 315.0 356.0 369.0 420.0 454.0 479.60 510.3 556.0 591.5 592.8 606.3Chittagong 344.0 380.0 391.0 456.0 489.0 507.80 539.9 581.7 616.9 622.6 642.3Raishahi 295.0 340.0 364.0 408.0 439.0 467.40 495.9 543.0 576.6 585.7 609.2Khulna 284.0 320.0 333.0 391.0 415.0 445.40 470.0 524.5 559.6 585.4 587.5Sylhet 329.0 354.0 375.0 437.0 477.0 :: :: ::Rangpur 305.0 368.0 381.0 430.0 465.0 :: :: :: ::

Bangladesh [rurall 312.0 353.0 369.0 424.0 456.0 475.1 504.0 551.3 586.2 591.6 611.3

Notes: Dhaka middle income index refers to families with 1973/74 incomes of Tk 300 to Tk 999.Dhaka government employees index refers to non-gazetted employees with monthly salaries ofTk 100 to Tk 400 in 1969/70.

= Not available

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 9.2NATURAL GAS AND PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

Effective DatesNATURAL GAS - TITAS SYSTEM

June 30, June 27, June 18, July 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, May 1, March-11985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994

Rate/CM

BULK USERSCost of Gas/MCF (ex-field), 13.80 16.85 21.72 24.97 28.18 29.66 30.86 31.99including excise duty 12.80 15.72 20.30 23.28 25.96 25.96 27.25 27.25

INDUSTRIALCost of Gas/MCF lex-field), 29.13 37.06 37.06 43.79 51.02 54.17 58.89 61.44including excise duty 28.13 35.73 35.73 41.99 48.01 48.01 52.81 52.81

OTHER USERSCost of GaslMCF (ex-field), 49.25 61.06 61.06 71.17 - - 58.89 61.44including excise duty 46.45 57.76 57.76 67.16 - - 52.81 52.81

END USERS PRICES/MCFINCLUDING EXCISE DUTIESBulk CunsumersPower Generation 15.66 19.09 24.82 28.54 33.00 37.95 39.07 43.04 1.68Fertilizer Production 15.66 19.09 24.82 28.54 28.54 32.82 33.98 37.37 1.46

Industrial Consumers 43.20 52.14 52.14 59.96 70.00 80.50 85.23 93.72 3.64Commercial Consumers 54.24 65.39 85.00 97.75 110.00 126.50 134.22 134.22 5.21

Household ConsumersMetered 40.80 44.88 56.10 56.10 65.00 74.75 74.75 82.11 2.90Unmetered/month- Stove lone burner) 60.00 66.00 80.00 92.00 100.00 115.00 115.00 126.00 160.00-Stove (two burners) 100.00 110.00 130.00 150.00 170.00 195.00 195.00 215.00 250.00- Additional burner (each) 41.00 45.00 56.00 64.00 74.00 85.00 85.00 93.00 93.00-Oven leach) 89.00 97.00 121.00 139.00 161.00 185.00 185.00 203.00 203.00- Additional oven (each) 45.00 49.00 61.00 70.00 81.00 93.00 93.00 102.00 102.00- Grill (each) 89.00 97.00 121.00 139.00 161.00 185.00 185.00 203.00 203.00-Additional grill (each) 45.00 49.00 61.00 70.00 81.00 93.00 93.00 102.00 102.00- Water heater up to 20 gall 177.00 194.00 242.00 278.00 322.00 370.00 370.00 407.00 407.00- Water heater above 20 ga 221.00 242.00 303.00 348.00 403.00 463.00 463.00 509.00 509.00-Dryer (each) 265.00 291.00 364.00 419.00 485.00 558.00 558.00 614.00 614.00- Refrigerator (each) 177.00 194.00 242.00 278.00 322.00 370.00 370.00 407.00 407.00- Gas light, garden/external 41.00 45.00 56.00 64.00 74.00 85.00 85.00 93.00 93.00- Gas light, internal use 21.00 23.00 28.00 32.00 37.00 43.00 43.00 47.00 47.00Minimum Charges/Month

Domestic iunmetered) 41.00 63.00 84.00 97.00 112.00 129.00 85.00 93.00 93.00Commercial 272.00 327.00

Source: Titas Gas Company. Continued...

Table 9.2 (Continued)NATURAL GAS AND PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES, 1980-1992

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS /c July 1984 June 1986 June 1987 June 1988 Oct 1990 July 1992TAKA/IMPERIAL GALLON Ex-depot Ex-depot Ex-Ref Ex-depot Ex-Ref Ex-depot Ex-Ref Ex-depot Ex-Ref Ex-depot Ex-Ref Ex-depot

Premium Gasoline (with HOBC) 75.56 76.15 54.42 61.51 54.42 61.51 54.42 61.51 58.14 66.33 62.92 64.96Regular Gasoline (MS) 66.68 67.19 52.32 58.55 52.32 58.55 52.32 58.55 53.78 62.01 58.55 60.64Jet Fuel (JP-1) 42.02 42.64 36.14 39.14 36.14 39.14 36.14 39.14 71.15 74.60 71.60 73.24Kerosene (SKOI 32.81 32.82 27.91 30.50 27.91 30.50 27.91 30.50 59.55 62.33 59.33 60.96Diesel Oil (HSD) 32.81 32.82 27.91 30.50 27.91 30.50 27.91 30.50 59.10 62.33 59.33 60.96Fuel Oil IFOHS) 24.54 24.55 19.28 21.37 19.28 21.37 19.28 21.37 31.10 33.69 30.10 32.32Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)' /a/c 105.00 105.00 49.50 113.50 49.50 113.50 49.50 113.50 115.72 185.60 117.60 179.60

/a Price was raised to Tk 75/cylinder with effect from 12 August 1982./b '50% of the sanctioned load./c Ex-refinery and ex-depot at Chittagong. In July, 1984 prices were fixed in liters with minor

adjustments in ex-depot prices as shown. Ex-refinery prices were not changed.Per 12.5 kg

Source: Titas Gas Company and Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

- 116-

Table 9.3RETAIL PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS /a

1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Premium gasoline 13.86 13.86 13.86 8.58 14.95 14.95 14.65 14.65

Regular gasoline 13.20 13.20 13.20 8.20 14.00 14.00 13.70 13.70

Kerosene 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.30 14.00 14.00 13.70 13.70

Diesel oil 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.30 14.00 14.00 13.70 13.70

Fuel oil 4.70 4.70 4.70 5.10 7.41 7.41 7.11 7.11

Jet oil 8.67 8.67 8.67 9.07 16.92 16.92 16.62 16.62

(In U.S. dollars per gallon)

Premium gasoline 1.71 1.68 1.63 0.99 1.59 1.59 1.64 1.65

Regular gasoline 1.63 1.60 1.55 0.94 1.49 1.49 1.54 1.54

Kerosene 0.92 0.89 0.87 0.84 1.49 1.49 1.54 1.54

Diesel oil 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.84 1.49 1.49 1.54 1.54

Fuel oil 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.59 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.80

Jet oil 1.07 1.05 1.02 1.04 1.80 1.80 1.87 1.87

/a End year data.=US $ 1.00

Source: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

Table 9.4WHOLESALE PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS IN URBAN AREAS(Taka per unit shown)

Traditonal

Items Units 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Masur maund 419.42 396.42 585.03 700.33 749.78 754.98 822.16 899.51 911.45 895.41 882.34Khesari maund 301.09 239.45 245.81 412.07 354.48 409.77 561.67 529.63 427.73 451.25 528.14Potatoes, local (best quality) maund 122.99 124.36 142.23 192.97 156.66 226.91 245.57 168.33 164.97 208.27 228.80Rohu fish (large cut pieces) maund 1272.78 1460.00 1905.13 2371.17 2284.87 2208.60 2542.61 2457.06 2506.31 3021.02 3488.69Chicken eggs, fresh 100 121.69 144.46 177.93 182.33 183.36 215.00 225.00 230.45 242.13 240.57 251.45Chillies,dry(superiorquality) maund 1152.06 1441.36 619.69 964.00 1592.01 1297.99 1288.29 1887.48 2483.17 1113.01 1538.13Turmeric (Haldi, best quality) maund 1325.84 1574.16 1441.00 958.33 936.35 1252.83 1279.70 1267.53 1606.43 1615.76 1487.00Mustard oil, local (best quality) maund 1394.27 1463.53 1320.57 1487.33 1473.45 1570.05 1745.83 1734.08 1959.52 2022.97 1978.93Ghee (cow) maund 3326.90 4218.38 5107.47 5390.80 5741.00 6314.54 6872.10 6940.00 6925.49 7293.14 7822.77Coconut oil, imported (sup. quality) maund 1485.57 1884.91 1480.11 1297.17 1662.11 1941.01 2065.66 2039.77 2415.62 2825.44 3158.00Vegetable oil (Pakvan) 35 lbs. 569.02 754.08 697.26 694.38 734.58 724.26 708.00 699.17 1873.67 788.39 777.59Tobacco leaf (Motihari, sup. quality) maund 994.86 1111.54 1079.12 1038.60 1095.81 1341.28 1543.56 1371.29 1464.60 1391.07 1420.19Betelnut (Tanti, whole, dry, sup. quality) maund 1230.83 1801.39 2038.51 1691.17 1575.38 1457.72 1889.51 2776.92 2566.41 2458.54 3084.10Betel leaf (medium size) 6400 461.55 544.76 529.69 538.33 817.80 1184.00 1442.00 757.18 1107.20 1408.00 1280.00Firewood, Gazari 100 maunds 2908.09 3698.21 5341.73 5715.98 5748.77 6102.50 4079.53 5153.54 5264.48 6939.53 7192.37Kerosene, white 4 gallons 135.72 136.65 136.13 130.16 131.92 132.00 132.00 213.84 243.12 197.90 211.53Cigarettes (Capstan) 250 123.30 128.86 159.99 150.56 164.63 175.50 216.00 213.01 235.98 228.13 243.17Matches (box of 40) gross 38.75 40.80 64.52 68.17 59.35 70.17 87.00 78.22 78.89 71.40 75.75Paper, 10 lbs. foolscap ream 115.40 120.82 117.39 119.83 120.74 142.25 173.00 173.13 173.39 198.38 192.45Cycle tyre, imported (Master Service) dozen 1473.69 1722.05 2027.50 1968.79 2294.51 2594.00 2529.00 2516.04 2609.52 2719.80 2599.80Cycle tubes (Deshi) dozen 257.03 345.91 413.78 443.23 358.39 836.00 880.00 1442.40 821.28 894.36 828.24Longcloth (medium quality) 40 yards 645.00 727.00 712.07 748.94 737.45 810.53 819.31 763.72 838.74 874.90 882.94

Continued

Table 9.4 (Continued)WHOLESALE PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS IN URBAN AREAS(Taka per unit shown)

Metric

Items Units 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

Masur kg 15.66 14.80 15.67 18.76 20.09 20.23 22.03 24.10 24.42 23.99 23.64

Khesari kg 11.24 8.94 6.59 11.04 9.50 10.98 15.05 14.19 11.46 12.09 14.15

Potatoes, local (best quality) kg 4.59 4.64 3.81 5.17 4.20 6.08 6.58 4.43 4.42 5.58 6.13

Rohu fish (large cut pieces) kg 34.15 39.17 51.11 63.53 61.22 59.18 68.13 65.83 67.15 80.94 93.47

Chicken eggs, fresh hundred 121.69 144.46 177.93 182.33 183.36 215.00 225.00 230.45 242.13 240.57 251.45

Chillies, dry (superior quality) kg 43.00 53.80 16.60 25.83 42.65 34.78 34.52 50.57 66.53 29.82 41.21

Turmeric (Haldi, best quality) kg 49.49 58.76 38.61 25.67 25.09 33.57 34.29 33.80 43.04 43.29 39.84

Mustard oil, local (best quality) kg 52.04 54.63 35.38 39.85 39.48 42.07 46.78 46.46 52.50 54.20 53.02

Ghee (cow) kg 89.27 113.19 136.84 144.43 153.83 169.20 184.14 185.96 185.55 195.40 209.89

Coconut oil, imported (sup. quality) kg 55.45 70.36 39.66 34.75 44.53 52.01 55.35 54.65 64.72 75.70 84.61

Vegetable oil (Pakvanl kg 35.84 47.50 43.92 43.73 46.27 45.62 44.60 44.04 50.20 49.66 48.98

Tobacco leaf (Motihari, sup. quality) kg 37.13 41.49 28.91 27.82 29.36 35.94 41.36 36.74 39.24 37.27 38.05

Betelnut (Tanti, whole, dry, sup. quality) kg 45.94 67.24 54.62 45.31 42.21 39.06 50.63 74.40 68.76 65.87 82.63

Betel leaf (medium size) thousand 72.12 85.12 82.76 84.11 127.78 185.00 225.31 118.31 173.00 220.00 200.00

Firewood, Gazari metric ton 779.12 1060.24 1431.24 1531.45 1540.29 1635.00 1093.00 1380.75 1411.39 1859.28 1927.00

Kerosene, white liter 7.46 7.51 7.48 7.16 7.26 7.26 7.26 11.76 13.37 13.07 13.97

Cigarettes (Capstan) thousand 493.20 515.44 639.96 602.24 658.52 702.00 864.00 852.02 943.92 912.52 972.67

Matches (box of 40) thousand 269.10 283.33 448.10 473.40 412.15 486.11 604.00 543.19 525.90 495.83 526.04 0

Paper, 10 lbs. foolscap thousand 230.80 241.64 244.56 249.65 251.54 295.83 380.42 360.48 403.23 396.75 384.90

Cycle tyre. imported (Master Service) each 122.81 143.50 168.96 164.07 191.21 216.17 210.75 209.67 217.46 226.65 216.65

Cycle tubes (Deshi) each 21.42 28.83 34.48 36.94 29.87 69.67 73.33 120.20 68.44 74.53 69.02

Longcloth (medium quality) meter 17.57 19.81 19.40 20.48 20.16 22.16 22.40 20.86 22.91 23.92 24.14

Note: All prices shown represent simple averages of weekly average prices during the fiscal year for the urban centers covered.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 9.5WHOLESALE PRICE INDICES OF AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS(1969/70 = 100)

Weights, In

% of total 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

DHAKAAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 67.87 499.12 535.83 605.80 616.30 751.76 929.00 933.00 1050.43 1148.25 1221.95 1329.41 1374.48 1429.17 1453.35 1536.11

Food 41.08 548.14 561.27 635.22 631.79 742.62 839.00 912.00 1072.20 1118.05 1196.22 1271.57 1307.52 1388.38 1400.36 1493.33

Raw materials 25.94 422.23 494.72 557.13 59447 763.97 1069.00 952.00 1005.92 1184.38 1253.98 1410.60 1471.59 1484.32 1526.25 1595.80

Fuel 0.85 476.76 561.18 669.41 534 12 797.74 1092.00 1298.00 1358.63 1417.35 1488.24 1647.06 1647.16 1717.65 1789.41 1782.35

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS 32.13 565.91 594.09 652.60 728.01 780.95 857.00 911.00 930.50 969.56 1057.80 1134.92 1241.91 1348.66 1366.95 1407.08

Food 7.96 517.63 567.08 59045 611.15 780.28 957.00 1038.00 1025.44 1111.60 1269.43 1378.77 1426.00 1500.00 1517.71 1637.06

Raw materials 6.38 581.24 503.29 517 24 587.54 683.87 726.00 769.00 801.80 809.95 901.88 954.23 975.24 986.23 1033.70 1000.63

Fuel and lighting 6.16 543.67 621.92 769.80 960.47 956.42 977.00 1020.00 1021.92 1043.74 1054.52 1068.51 1490.91 1660.59 1681.66 1706.82

Manufactures 11.63 602.32 647.64 707.31 762.02 733.85 798.00 843.00 888.08 920.59 999.51 1102.32 1130.35 1277.82 1279.88 1313.67

ALL PRODUCTS 100.00 520.58 554.55 620.84 652.20 760.96 906.00 926.00 1011.93 1090.84 1169.21 1266.92 1331.91 1403.24 1425.59 1493.63

CHITTAGONGAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 67.87 512.28 541.20 622.47 644.23 760.26 895.00 1004.00 1136.53 1146.81 1232.31 1340 22 1364.82 1390.81 1420.32 1442.42

Food 41.08 558.34 576.63 682.59 674.76 776.09 844.00 1023.00 1167.69 1156.47 1219.01 1314.51 1335.52 1372.31 1347.08 1369.01

Raw materials 25.94 433.17 485.43 528.10 593.68 738.97 977.00 967.00 1080.62 1126.91 1247.40 1374.71 1404.63 1412.61 1525.56 1547.61

Fuel 0.85 518.92 531.76 596.47 711.76 642.35 877.00 1210.00 1265.69 1287.45 1414.90 1530.59 1565.88 1619.42 1748.24 1780.00

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS 32.13 537.96 603.67 667.01 760.91 806.56 864.00 915.00 932.12 990.44 1057.58 1148.33 1315.90 1349.99 1351.17 1388.36

Food 7.96 595.87 596.10 633.54 676.00 841.83 954.00 1058.00 1112.24 1202.14 1286.06 1422.24 1564.95 1490.17 1438.82 1571.86 _

Raw materials 6.38 475.55 526.80 523.35 599.37 704.70 760.00 784.00 785.25 805.97 900.18 1045.92 1114.26 1161.63 1182.13 1194.36 hOFuel and lighting 6.16 577.27 642.86 809.09 1017,05 1067.33 1083.00 1112.00 1085.04 1154.87 1155.51 1096.75 1554.15 1727.95 1711.53 1792.21

Manufactures 11.63 542.51 630.18 693.46 771.97 709.37 744.00 783.00 808.43 859.67 935.68 1044.37 1129.84 1157.20 1192.61 1155.29

ALLPRODUCTS 100.00 519.00 561.27 636.78 681.73 774.87 885.00 975.00 1070.25 1096.57 1176.17 1278.57 1349.10 1377.70 1398.10 1425.05

BANGLADESHAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 67.87 481.41 508.93 580.79 596.20 726.93 883.00 919.00 1023.29 1087.18 1174.59 1276.10 1297.24 1332.56 1352.78 1437.41

Food 41.08 527.78 545.40 623.95 633.35 725.02 817.00 911.00 1029.86 1073.04 1152.50 1231.28 1236.27 1285.04 1288.88 1370.28

Raw materials 25.94 406.67 449.42 508.48 533.96 729.51 989.00 919.00 1002.69 1096.93 1200.82 1338.55 1385.47 1399.67 1443.41 1536.08

Fuel 0.85 520.00 531.76 701.18 689.41 770.79 1013.00 1291.00 1327.65 1399.04 1442.38 1536.47 1549.41 1580.34 1675.29 1670.59

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS 32.13 543.95 603.02 667.44 740.83 788.23 854.00 904.00 915.10 964.32 1033.84 1118.43 1232.52 1302.61 1331.12 1361.22

Food 7.96 516.59 562.94 594.72 627.76 779.10 937.00 1014.90 1019.90 1103.27 1212.31 1326.88 1375.88 1411.63 1415.45 1494.97

Raw materials 6.38 515.67 529.78 513.79 582.44 697.18 722.00 736.00 753.15 774.72 881.03 978.88 1011.91 1028.69 1079.62 1058.93

Fuel and lighting 6.16 548.86 661.04 834.90 993.02 978.30 999.00 1039.00 1004.65 1054.95 1071.75 1063.31 1470.74 1620.63 1620.29 1655.03

Manufactures 11.63 575.75 644.63 712.21 771.37 747.00 794.00 848.00 892.02 924.78 974.70 1081.51 1129.23 1209.81 1258.30 1279.88

ALL PRODUCTS 100.00 501.51 540.99 608.63 642.67 746.86 875.00 914.00 988.54 1047.75 1129.37 1225.44 1276.45 1322.94 1345.82 1412.93

Annual Increase 1%) 12.40 7.90 12.50 5.60 16.20 17.20 4.50 8.16 5.99 7.79 8.51 4.16 3.64 1.73 4.99

Note: The wholesale price indices lbase 1969/70 = 1001 are prepared for six urban centers in Bangladesh (Dhaka, Chittagong,Khulna, Rajshahi, Sylhet and RangpurO and cover 44 individual items. Weights are assigned in proportion to the grossvalue of production for each item in the base year 1969/70. The national index represents the unweighted average

of the indices for the six urban centers.Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 120 -

Table 9.6DAILY WAGES FOR UNSKILLED LABOR la(Tkiday)

1983/84 1984t85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988t89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

AGRICULTURE [WITHOUT FOODIcurrent 19.58 24.45 29.54 31.76 31.47 31.39 :: :: :: :: 38.19

1973/74 prices lb 6.28 6.93 8.00 7.49 6.90 6.51 :: :: :: :: 6.25Index, 1973/74 = 100 94 104 120 112 104 98 :: 94

FISHERYcurrent 19.80 22.51 25.42 31.27

1973/74 prices /b 6.35 6.38 6.89 7.38Index, 1973/74 = 100 93 94 101 109

SMALL SCALE RURAL INDUSTRY /dcurrent 24.25 28.86 31.45 39.50 40.16 43.69 50.17 52.59 57.58 58.06 59.93

1973/74 prices /b 7.77 8.18 8.52 9.32 9.53 9.70 10.35 10.18 10.64 10.75 10.68Index, 1973/74 = 100 154 162 169 185 189 193 205 202 211 213 212

COTTON TEXTILE WORKERScurrent 21.63 24.04 28.68 32.17 35.67 38.95 43.71 45.04 48.40 50.06 56.90

1973/74 prices ic 7.62 7.54 8.17 8.12 8.51 8 64 9.01 9.03 8.96 9.27 10.14Index, 1973/74 = 100 138 136 148 147 154 156 163 163 162 167 183

JUTE TEXTILE WORKERScurrent 20.22 20.81 28.29 32.71 33.10 39.12 43.9 45.78 47.96 50.31 56.90

1973/74 prices /c 7.12 6.52 8.06 8.26 7.86 8.68 9.05 8.86 8.89 9.32 10.14Index, 1973/74 = 100 94 86 107 109 104 115 120 117 118 123 134

MATCH INDUSTRY WORKERScurrent 20.12 20.57 22.01 24.36 30.53 35.59 40.75 44.88 48.69 52.31 58.94

1973/74 prices /c 7.08 6.45 6.27 6.15 7.25 7.90 8.4 8.69 8.98 9.69 10.51Index, 1973/74 = 100 111 101 99 97 114 124 132 137 141 152 165

ENGINEERING INDUSTRY WORKERScurrent 22.78 26.00 36.43 34.40 30.64 38.69 48.12 53.54 58.17 66.21 69.46

1973/74 prices /c 8.02 8.15 10.38 8.69 7.27 8.59 9.92 10.36 10.77 12.26 12.38Index, 1973/74 = 100 128 130 166 139 116 137 159 166 172 196 198

VEGETABLE OIL INDUSTRY WORKERScurrent 16.47 18.14 20.93 23.43 26.30 30.69 36.13 39.33 43.52 52.61 51.37

1973/74 prices /c 5.80 5.69 5.96 5.92 6.24 6.81 7.45 7.61 8.06 9.74 9.16Index, 1973/74 = 100 105 103 108 107 113 123 135 138 146 176 166

CONSTRUCTION WORKERScurrent 24.56 26.36 33.32 38.98 45.24 50.84 52.35 52.53 56.62 57.5 57.39

1973/74 prices /c 8.65 8.26 9.49 9.84 10.74 11.28 10.79 10.17 10.49 10.65 10.23Index, 1973/74 = 100 122 117 134 139 152 159 152 144 148 150 144

/a Based on average wage rates for Dhaka. Chittagong, Raishahi and Khulna Divisions./b Deflated by rural consumer price index,/c Deflated by the average of the consumer price indices for industrial workers in Chittagong, Khulna and Narayanganj./d Refers to skilled workers.:: = Not availableNote: BBS has discontinued wage series for agriculture and fishery sector.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Table 9.7WAGE DIFFERENTIALS

1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94

UNSKILLED INDUSTRIAL WORKERS: UNSKILLED AGRICULTURAL WORKERS

Agriculture 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Fishing 0.91 1.23 1.31 1.39 1.26 1.01 0.93 0.86 0.95 n.a. n.s. n.a n.a n.a n.a n.aS.S. Industry 0.88 0.96 0.99 1.01 0.96 1.24 1.19 1.07 1.20 1.24 1.39 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.57Cotton Textile 1.09 1.19 1.21 1.16 1.17 1.10 0.99 0.97 0.98 1.10 1.24 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.49Jute Textile 0.99 1.07 1.18 1.14 1.13 1.03 0.86 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.25 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.49Matches 0.93 1.01 0.99 1.06 1.10 1.03 0.85 0.75 0.74 0.95 1.13 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.54Engineering 0.99 1.07 1.10 1.18 1.19 1.16 1.07 1.23 1.04 0.95 1.23 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.82Vegetable Oil 0.91 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.84 0.75 0.71 0.71 0.81 0.98 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.35Construction 1.26 1.38 1.38 1.40 1.37 1.25 1.09 1.13 1.18 1.40 1.62 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.50

SKILLED WORKER: UNSKILLED WORKER

INDUSTRYCotton textiles 1.28 1.27 1.31 1.35 1.33 1.37 1.31 1.40 1.55 1.42 1.36 1.31 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.22Jute textile 1.35 1.27 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.37 1.31 1.36 1.47 1.52 1.33 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.22Matches 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.34 1.44 1.36 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.39 1.32 1.33 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.24Engineering 1.81 1.87 1.80 1.83 1.80 1.66 1.56 1.37 1.68 1.79 1.97 1.36 1.40 1.38 1.27 1.20Vegetable oils 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.20 1.26 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.52 1.58 1.44 1.38 1.32 1.27 n.a 1.23

CONSTRUCTION 1.98 1.94 1.98 1.98 2.04 2.04 1.98 1.90 1.97 2.05 1.95 1.90 1.92 1.85 1.84 1.84

AGRICULTURE 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.23 1.30 1.44 1.40 1.51 1.50 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

FISHERY 1.34 1.30 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.62 1.64 1.69 1.98 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.e. n.s.

Note: BBS has discontinued wage series for agricultural workers.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

- 122 -

Table 9.8AGRICULTURAL WAGE RATES(Tk/day, without food)

Division/District 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1993194

Rajshahi 13.88 14.82 15.70 21.97 26.22 27.00 25.87 24.03 30.61Dinajpur 11.83 14.00 14.33 22.50 25.00 27.91 27.15 23.86 29.58Rangpur 15.17 14.33 16.83 24.00 26.25 24.33 22.49 20.65 26.08Bogra 12.08 15.00 15.00 19.33 25.00 25.83 25.35 24.64 33.73Rajshahi 15.67 14.92 14.42 19.00 24.83 27.75 26.47 25.48 33.33Pabna 14.67 15.83 17.92 25.00 30.00 29.16 27.90 25.54 30.33

Khulna 13.93 14.73 18.37 22.47 28.04 28.67 28.86 28.67 36.37Kushtia 10.92 11.58 18.67 19.17 28.33 21.25 23.84 25.15 33.17Jessore 12.92 13.58 16.58 19.50 24.16 32.50 28.74 25.92 33.6Khulna 15.17 15.58 15.58 22.00 30.00 29.58 28.48 29.39 40.42Barisal 15.83 16.00 19.00 23.75 27.72 32.50 32.51 33.72 37.67Patuakhali 14.83 16.92 22.00 27.92 30.00 27.50 30.71 29.17 37

Dhaka 15.73 16.58 19.27 21.68 27.45 30.67 30.66 30.52 37.52Mymensingh /a 14.17 14.71 17.38 20.96 28.96 30.96 30.91 29.31 36.56

(Mymensingh) 13.50 15.00 18.75 20.67 33.33 30.25 30.52 29.31 35.5(Kishoreganj) 14.83 14.42 16.00 21.25 24.58 31.66 31.29 - 35.67

Tangail 15.00 15.00 21.33 25.00 27.33 29.00 29.81 29.34 35Dhaka 21.25 23.50 25.75 25.00 29.09 32.42 32.63 35.41 45.92Faridpur 14.08 15.00 14.50 16.50 22.91 30.00 29.03 28.01 34.5

Chittagong 18.60 22.10 24.98 31.68 36.43 40.72 40.51 42.35 48.26Sylhet 15.42 20.00 23.92 29.50 30.16 34.58 34.79 35.98 44.33Comilla 17.08 18.75 25.42 30.08 32.27 35.42 30.70 30.70 37.83Noakhali 19.42 22.75 24.75 33.33 37.50 40.42 37.24 45.72 44.67Chittagong 20.25 24.25 21.25 33.83 42.08 48.75 52.17 55.43 62.82Chittagong Hill Tracts 20.83 24.75 29.58 31.67 40.16 44.44 47.64 43.9 51.67

Country Average 15.54 17.06 19.58 24.45 29.54 31.76 31.47 31.39 38.19

REAL WAGE RATES(Tk/day, without food, 1973/74 prices)

Rajshahi 5.34 5.39 5.25 6.25 7.11 6.37 5.67 4.99 5.01Dinajpur 4.73 5.07 4.70 6.11 6.78 6.58 5.95 4.95 4.84Rangpur 6.07 5.19 5.52 6.52 7.11 5.74 4.93 4.28 4.27Bogra 4.52 5.47 5.08 5.69 6.78 6.09 5.56 5.11 5.52Rajshahi 5.87 5.44 4.89 5.59 6.73 6.54 5.80 5.29 5.45Pabna 5.49 5.77 6.07 7.35 8.13 6.88 6.12 5.30 4.96

Khulna 5.62 5.66 6.47 7.02 7.60 6.76 6.33 5.95 5.95Kushtia 4.81 4.45 6.57 5.99 7.68 5.01 5.23 5.22 5.43Jessore 5.13 5.22 5.84 6.09 6.55 7.67 6.30 5.38 5.50Khulna 6.02 5.99 5.49 6.88 8.13 6.98 6.25 6.10 6.62Barisal 6.28 6.15 6.69 7.42 7.51 7.67 7.13 7.00 6.17Patuakhali 5.88 6.51 7.75 8.73 8.13 6.49 6.73 6.05 6.06

Dhaka 6.12 6.07 6.37 6.12 7.44 7.23 6.72 6.38 6.14Mymensingh la 5.17 5.32 5.95 5.81 7.85 7.30 6.78 6.08 5.98Tangail 5.75 5.32 6.77 7.02 7.41 6.84 6.54 6.09 5.73Dhaka 8.14 8.33 8.17 7.02 7.88 7.65 7.16 7.35 7.52Faridpur 5.40 5.32 4.60 4.63 6.21 7.08 6.37 5.81 5.65

Chittagong 6.81 7.67 7.46 8.70 9.87 9.86 8.88 8.79 7.90Sylhet 5.61 6.90 7.27 8.33 8.17 8.16 7.63 7.46 7.26Comilla 6.36 6.46 7.73 8.50 8.75 8.35 6.73 6.37 6.19Noakhali 6.60 7.84 7.52 9.42 10.16 9.53 8.17 9.49 7.31Chittagong 7.64 8.48 6.18 8.90 11.40 11.50 11.44 11.50 10.28Chittagong Hill Tracts 7.85 8.65 8.60 8.33 10.88 10.48 10.45 9.11 8.46

Country Average 5.90 6.13 6.34 6.93 8.00 7.76 6.90 6.51 6.25

/a Including Jamalpur.Note: National, division, and district figures shown are unweighted averages of wage

rates in constituent administrative units. The series has been discontinued by BBS.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

IBRD 24206R.

BANGLADESH

Th.k.rgoon .- ; \ - DISTRICT BOUNDARIES

PCAN NILPH-AMAR DVSO BUDRE

NdpL°Ih-i toi IRhot - INTERNATIONAL BOUNDAR ES

DINA PURO R-gp~,r KgoI

\ ° D,.olp.r RANGPUR KL)RGRAi) MILES 0 25 50 75

.) I I~ ~ ~~ I I IGoibondha

0 ° 4. KILOMETERS 0 25 50 75 100

GAIBANL hA i. . ............-r ~~~~~JOw PU) R HA I SLRPU R

i NAOGAON °Joypurhol OOrnIEo NETROKONA S--nomgon HE

SUNAMGANJ SYLHET: t O ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ON.t,.ko- °Sylho} _

) Noogoon D O Bogro JAfM)ALPURAI D

NO.AAGANJ BGCIRA OMy-m-sogh

< lowsosgetoo RA~SnAHMYMENSINGH

\ RA SHAHI O OK shorgon HABiGANJ O M-I Brhoor JS-Ig-1 0 )~ ~~~~~~~IIBGAj0 ok m

RAJSHAHI NATORF MOULVI BAZARR NAOFf SERAGANJ TKISHORGAN, a .

TANGAII H big-r

I OTo-goI

PABN- G AZ IPUR K , '.r.INDIA o Dob-o OGoip`r NARSINGD, hARIA

INDIA ~~~Khi. 0 PobooINDIAAD,KSI-dIo Morrikgronj DH!-AKA ! o onsg Bo ( N D IA

",',PU MANIKGANJ * DHAKAMeherpur Ropbor., 0 NARAYANGANJ

oCh do-go '- RA BARN O ,

TrCHUADANGA Jhdhenoidoh ° NoynnJ

I5NrHAIA DAH ForAdpAr MLUNSHICANJ COMILA0Mogufo FARIIPIR M-nsh.gowriy Co-rn Ir

VMA(URA , A A' ' ~ ~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~CHANDPUR

/ °Jestore Norcl 3 GI;Po3AA M I F C d rKHAGRACHHAR,

\ .opoIgowj OOrr

BARISAL NOAKHALi FENI - Khogrochhor,

O.tkh". o KHULNA O JR

2r Sotkhiro 0 30gerh PEkOJR 0l .0N jO .

0JhoIokrohi oAGAA

?SATKHIRA KHULNA JHAtOKATNI BholoBAGERHAT PP.toipor - . - l

PATVIAKHAIL -

The °oc,ndar,eo. coloro. 0

PoIoIkholi BHOLA-

CHITTAGONGThe.r jn-o-iao -h-,n BARGUNA

dthenamnatons shd a ' CH'tTYAGONGon this ma P do not o 0impiy on the part of Bormco-The World Brnk Group any c,dgmnent on the eo ,

status of any ttrritory|or any endorsement

bocceeornc of ui,h BANDARBAN

cox s* I! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'$AZAR

BANG JESH 1 Co." Bo-or

INDIA

z

L~ANKA

MARCH 1995