Report No. 6449-STV

St. Vincent and the GrenadinesUpdating Economic Memorandum

November 25, 1986

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EqUIVALENTS

Currency Unit: East Caribbean Dollar

At the time of its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied toste,-ling at the rate of £ 1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link withsterling was broken, and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the USdollar at the rate US$1.00 = EC$2.70.

Since July 1976:

EC$1.00 = US$O.370 orUS$1.00 = EC$2.700

ABBREVIATIONS

AIA Arrowroot Industry AssociationBGA Banana Growers' AssociationBOP Balance of PaymentsCARICOR Caribbean CommunityCDB Caribbean Development BankCIDA CarLadian International Development AgencyCVSA Central Water and Sewerage AuthorityDEVCO Development CorporationEEC European Economic CommunityGDP Gross Domestic ProductGNP Gross National ProductNCB National Comme-;ial BankNFS Non-factor ServicesOECS organization of Eastern Caribbean StatesPSIP Public Sector Investment ProgramSIL Sugar Industry LimitedSVMC St. Vincent Marketing CorporationUSAID United States Agency for International DevelopmentVINLEC St. Vincent Electricity Services Limited

Fiscal Year

July 1 to June 30

FOR oMC1L USE ONLY

TITLE: St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Updating Economic Memorandum

COUNTRY: St. Vincent and the Grenadines

REGION: Latin America and the Caribbean

SECTOK: Country Economic

REPORT: TYPE CLASSIF NUMBER LANGUAGES

CEt Restricted 6449-STV English

PUBWATE: November 25, 196b

ABSTRACT: Following two major natural disasters--a volcanic eruption in1979 and a hurricane in 1980--economic activity rebounded,and real GDP grew at an average rate of bZ p.a. during19Y1-83, mainily because of the strong recovery of agricultureand expansion in transport and communications. The growthrate, however, returned to the normal trend of 4% p.a. during1964-85, as the expected growth in new sectors such asmanufacturing failed to materialize. Public sector financesimproved significantly during the past four years, withpublic savings increasing from 1% of GOP in 1982 to b% in1985. Substantial improvements in the balance of paymentsalso occurred, and the deficit on the current accountnarrowed from 23% of GDP in 198U to 5% in 1985. The medium-term prospects of the economy are favorable, if: (a) thereis a timely inflow of project-related external resources atconcessional terms; (b) domestic savings increase as a resultof the realization of positive public sector savings throughcontrols on expenditures; and (c) non-traditionalagriculture, manufacturing and tourism expand as a result ofgovernment incentives to promote the private sector.

NUTE: This report is based on the work of an IBRD economic missionto St. Vincent and the Grenadines in July 1986. The missionconsisted of Messrs. James Saekey (mission leader), dilarianCodippily (IBIW), and Ms. Joan Curry (Consultant).Messrs. Colin Bruce (,0B) and Gerard Byam (IARK) alsoassisted the mission on the review of the economy and thepublic sector investment program respectively.

This document has a restricte. distribution and may be used by recipients only in the perforrnanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

ST. VINUkNT AND THE GRENADINES

Updating Bconomic Memorandum

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.COUNTIY DATA

bUMMAKY AND CUNCLUSIONS **...***.........,........***.* i -iii

I. DOMESTIC sC0 ..............................

Overview of the Economy ....................... . 1Public Sector Finances I...*, ........................... 1Credit and Interest Rates ...,.......................... 5

1I. EXTEkNAL SECTOR .......... * ...............,...,.. 5

Balance of Payments 5....... ................. ....

External Debt .......................................... b

I. _ ~LKTEu SECTOR FULICY IbSUES .................................... 6

Agriculture .. 7................................. ......... 7Manufacturing ..... ..... ... * ..................... .......

Tourism ... 9...e ............................*....@. Y

IV. PUBLIC SSCTUR INVLSTMENT PK0OGRAM ........................................ 10

Medium-Term PSIP .................................. 10Selected Issues ..... .................................... 1 1

V. MEDIUI-TKc ?GRUWTH PKUSIECTS .......... ................

Prospects and Policy Kequirements ...................... 12Implications .... ..* ..... ......... ..................... Ii

ANNEX I: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGMAM ANDTECUNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS .................... 15

ANNEX II: SELECTED POLICY DIALOGUE MATKIX ................. 2J

ANNEIA illI: SUONUMiG PKUJECTIONS ...... , .................... 27

STATISTICAL APPkNDlA .................. , 37

MAP (IBUD 13500K)

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

TEXT TABLES

Table No. Page No.

1. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators .................... 22. Balance of Payments Indicators ....................... 63. Financing the Public Sector Investment Program **A......4. Selected Macroeconomic Projections ................... 135. External Capital Requirements ........................ 14

Posg I of 2 pagos

COUNTRY OATA * St. VINCENT AND THE RCNADIIIINS

AREA POPULATION DENSITY386 km

21,O0000 t(ld-I9M5) 282 p.r M2

Rate of Grewth$ I.;3 (1973463) 535 pet kIn2of Areble Lend

POPULATION CIIARACTRISTICS (tl8s) HEALTH (09S1)Crude 8trth Rote (per 1,000) 31.3 Popuietion pet Phycielan 4*791

Crudo Death Rate (per 1,000) 7.5 Pepulctlen per Hospital Bod 1,69S

Ilnent Mortality (per 1t000 livt births) 46.6

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIPI of National lcoes. Highost GuIntile . S Owned by Top 10 of Owners

Lowest Oulatile S Owned by Nalleet 1Og of Owner.

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

S of Population - Urban .. S of Populetion - UrbanRural .. - Rurol

NUTRITION EDUCATION (1963)

Calorie Intake as S of Requirements - Adult Li nacy Rate (S)Per Capita Protein Intese . Primary School Enrollment (t) 90

Secondary Sheool Enrollmcat S.)

GlRP PER CAPITA, 19644 US6840 C1

GROSS NTIONAL PRODUCT, 19S5 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH IS, constant pritee)

US4 Nlia. 5 1977-80 1980-t3 1963-85

GNP at Market Prices 100.1 100.0 5.6 4.9 5.2Oross Domestic Inveatmeat 30.8 30.8 19.9 6.0 7.2rosa National Sevings 25.4 25.4 25.6 19.9 12.1

Current Account B*alnce -5.4 45.4

Exporte of Oeeds. NFs 79.0 79.0 16.4 12.7 t8.1Imports of Get oda NFS 92.1 92.1 9.0 S.6 10.3

OUTPUT, 1985

Value Aded_Us Min. S

AgrIculture 16.3 19.3

Industry 19.5 23.0

Servicae 46.6 57.7

Total/Average 64.6 100.0

PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

Consolidated Pubilc Secter Central Government

t0E million) S St GOP (EC Million) * of soP

1964/65 1965/66 19s5 1984/65 1985/66 1965

Current Rncelpts 67.6 100.5 34.4 64.6 59.6 31.8Current Expenditures 74.9 77.9 27.9 70.9 77.0 27.0Current Surplua/DOeflIt 12.9 22.6 6.5 13.7 12.6 4.6

Capital Expenditures 15.6 38.1 S.6 9.8 10.3 3.7

External Aaastanae (at; 9.4 30.7 7.3 6.1 7.1 2.4

of The per capita GNP eatimte Is *t 1964 morket prices, calculated by the some coaveralen technique as ueed Inthe 1960 World Atlee. All other cenverelona to dollers In this table are a' the averagv exchange rateprevaling during the period covered.

.. not evelalblenot applicable

Pag. 2 of 2 pags$

COUNTR? DATA - St. VsMCENT AND THE OhENAOISNS

MONEY, CREDIT AND PPICES 180 19081 1962 1983 1084 1965

(Million EC1 Outsteading gad Poriod)

Money and cuoai money 70.0 009. 07.B 111.0 125.2 1380.7Bank Croedit to Public Sector -0.4 3.4 14.4 14.4 10.6 5.0Bank Credit to Private Sector 66.0 73.3 04.0 07.5 104.6 107.0

(Percentage or lidex Numbeor)

Money and Quasi money as S of GOP 50.7 47.1 43.5 45.0 47.0 50.6Gonaetl Price Index (Jan. 18t-1100) 94.6 106.6 114.4 120.6 123.0 126.4

Annual S Chaises lt

General Prioe index 17.2 12.7 7.3 5.4 2.7 2.0Bank Credit to Public Sector -233.3 117.6 326.5 -0.7 -26.4 -52.0Beak Credit to Private Sector 23.0 7.8 14.6 16.0 7.3 2.3

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (USS million) NERCOHANDIE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1983-85)

1963 1984 1065 USS Him. S

Exports of Goode, NFS 56.0 69.0 79.0 eananas 13.2 24.8Import* of Goods, NFS 70.7 $3.6 95.1 Eddooe I Oesbeen 6.4 12.0Reoourco Gap (defleIt * -) -23.7 -14.6 -16.1 Flour 0.7 16.3otbat Factor Paymnats (net) -2.0 -2.2 -I.S Sweet Potatoes 1.9 3.6Mot Transfers 17.0 12.4 0.2 All Otber Co_oditios 23.1 43.3Balance oa Current Accoont -8.7 -4.4 -8.4 TOTAL 53.3 100.0NLT Capital InflowDioret livestmont 1.0 0.4 0.6 EXTERNAL ODET, DECEMBER 31, 1085Official Grant Aid 3.0 2.5 4.3 USs mli.Foreign Borrowing (nct) 2.6 2.2 7.2

Not Credit from IMF 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 Public Oebt, fuel. Guarantood 23.2Not Short-Term Capisl 1.1 1.0 0.6 Nongvarantood Privatet ebtErrors and Omlssions 2.7 0.4 6.5 Total Outatanding * DisbursedIncroesa In Roeerves (-) -0.6 -4.1 -6.5

RATE OF EXCHANGE (Since July 1076) DEBT SERVICE, DECEMBER 31, 198S b,

US$1.00 - ECS2.70 J

EC0*.00 - US$0.37 Public Debt, loci. Guaranteed 3.0

Nouaraenteed Private Debt

Total Otatsandlng & Disbursed

IBRWD/IA LENDING, OECEMBER 1085

US6Mil.

Outstaading 4 Disbursed 1.1

Undlsbureed 4.1Outstanding lael. Undiabureod 5.2

b/ Ratlo of debt ertvice to exports of goode *ad non-factor services.

.. not avallablen not appileable

StiHMA1tY ANV) CONCLUSION'

i. Following two major natural disasters--a volcanic eruption in1979 and a hurricane in 1980--economic activity in St. Vincent and theGrenadines rebounded, with real GOP growing at an average rate of b% p.e.during 1981-83, mainly because of the strong recovery in agriculture andthe expansion in transport and communications. The growth rate, however,returued to normal trends during 1984-85-at 3X p.a.--as the expectedexpansion in new sectors such as enclave manufacturing failed tomaterialize, while public investment contracted substantially in 1984.Despite the relatively high investment/UDP ratio uf about 30U during1984-85, growth remains modest and unemployment remains high. On theotherhand, wage increases of unionized public and private sector employeesdeclined only marginally from 10 in 1984 to 9% in 1985. Since the rate ofinflation declined from 8X p.a. in 1981-83 to 2.5% p.a. in 1984-85, realwages have been increasing. Since substantial productivity increases arenot liKely in the medium term, real wage increases should be restrained ifSt. Vincent's competitiveness is not to be eroded any further.

ii. Public sector finances improved significantly during the pastfour years. The current account balance of the consolidated public sectotincreased from 1X of GDP in 1982 to bZ in 1965. This improvement resultedlargely from the good performance of the Central Government and the rest ofgeneral government, which compensated for the poor performance of thepublic enterprises. The disappointing performance of the latter may beattribu3ted to the poor performance of the Arrowroot Industry Association(AIA) and the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CWSA). The Governmentshould pursue its efforts to improve the finances of the public enterprisesthrough: (a) solving the problems of the AIA by disposing of the existingstock of arrowroot at the best possible price thereby reducing AIA's costof holding the stock and by paying farmers the export price of arrowroot asopposed to the existing subsidized price, and (b) improving the finances ofthe CWSA through the collection of arrears and implementation of costeffective measures in the use of materials, labor, and vehicles.

iii. The balance of payments of St. Vincent and the Grenadines hasbecome significantly stronger in recent years. As a result of theexpansion of exports, which grew by 124 p.a. during 1981-85, compared tothe b% p.a. growth in imports, the deficit in the current account of thebalance of payments narrowed from 234 of GDP in 1980 to 8% in 19b5. Thecurrent account deficits of the balance of payments were financed largelyby concessionary loans and, to a lesser extent, by private investmentassociated mainly with export-oriented enclave industries. Officialborrowing remained virtually constant in 1981-84, but registered asubstantial increase in 1985 because of the initial disbursements of loansrelated to the construction of the Cumberland hydroelectric project.St. Vincent and the Grenadines' outstanding eXternal public debt declinedsteadily from 27X of GDP in 1981 to 237 in 1984, but increased to 48% in1985. As a result of the concessional terms, debt service remained at amodest 4% of exports of goods and services in 1985. Despite thesubstantial strengthening of both public sector finances and the balance otpayments, because of St. Vincent and the Grenadines' constant highvulnerability to natural disasters (a recent storm in September 1986 andassociated heavy rainfall destroyed about 40% of its banana crop--a keyexport earner), the country should continue to rely on concessionalresources to finance its development programs.

- ii -

iv. The Government is in the process of finalizing its three-yearDevelopment Plan, which outlines the main development objectives,strategies and policies for the period 1986-8b. The objective of theGovernment is to increase exports and employment based on growth inagriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, while also taking advantage ofopportunities for import substitution where appropriate. The Governmentintends to broaden the productive base of the economy through cropdiverseLfication in the agriculture sector, continued emphasis on industrialestate development and the promotion of specialized tourism. In order tomake the planning process meaningful, the Government should clearly definethe role of the public sector vis-a-vis the private sector.

v. In pursuing its goals of promoting agriculture, the Governmentis paying special attention to the main issues of the sector, which relateto product diversification, marketing and land reform. In this connection,it would be useful for the Government to assist the private sector byproviding technical assistance to clearly define the set of commoditieswell suited for St. Vincent's agronomic environment, as well as those withfavourable marketing possibilities, with a view to ensure high yields andprofitability. Similarly, to further the Government's program in themanufacturing sector, two unresolved constraints need attention: theshortage of factory shells and the institutional strengthening of theDevelopment Corporation (DEVCU). With respect to the shortage of factoryshells, apart from promoting private sector participation in the buildingof factory shells, the Government should resolve the issue of infrastruc-ture development in the proposed Diamond Estate to permit factory shellconstruction on it to commence. On the institutional strengthening ofDEVCO, the Government will need to put in place a staff training program,supported by external technical assistance. Finally, with respect totourism, three main factors inhibit its promotion in St. Vincent and theGrenadines: accessibility, accommodations and competitive pricing. Whilethe problem of accessibility does not have a simple short-term solution,those of improved hotel accommodation and pricing can be rectified. Inthis context, there is the need to upgrade existing facilities and tointroduce price competition into the sector (aimed at lowering hotel roomsrates) through attracting investment into new hotel facilities.

vi. The level of public sector investment over the past two years hasbeen low as a result of substantial shortfalls in projected expenditures.The reasons have been the slow rate of loan disbursement, the slowimplementation of the industrial estates project, shortages of inputs(construction materials such as aggregates) that have hampered progress onthe ongoing road rehabilitation projects, and procurement difficultiesassociated with the Cumberland hydroelectric and other related projects.The Government is initiating policies to address these problems.Specifically, it should (a) improve the administrative procedures forprocurement, and (b) urgently pursue the establishment of a new quarry soas to improve the supply of aggregate rock. As part of its three-yearDevelopment Plan, the Government has put together a public sectorinvestment program (PSIP) covering FY1985/b6 to FY1987/88. The program'smain emphasis is that of providing basic infrastructure to support the

- iii -

development of the economy; i;. is thus basically sound. On the basis ofthe performance of the PSIP in 1985/86 and policies already put in place toaddress the weaknesses in project implementation, expenditures on theproposed PSIP should double in 1986/87 to roughly ECS60 million and remainat that level in 1987/88. The Government expects to mobilize 90% of thetotal program outlay of t;C§144 million for FYb5/66-07/bd from externalsources. The domestic counterpart requirement of approximately EUS4million p.a. should pose no problem because of improved public sectorfinances.

vii. The growth prospects of St. Vincent and the Grenadines over thenext two years will be dominated by the construction and transportactivities associated with the ongoing Cumberland hydroelectric and theagriculture diversification and land reform projects. GOP is thus expectedto rise by about 6% p.a. during 1986/87. In the medium term, the growthprospects in agriculture will be influenced by the Government's efforts tosustain the momentum for crop diversification, to implement its land reformprogram and to promote private sector participation. These efforts shouldlead to about a 5% growth in the value added of agriculture during1986-90. Manufacturing may continue to be sluggish in the medium termunless the shortage of factory space is resolved. The expansion ofproject-related activities during the period would lead initially to adeterioration in the balance of payments current account. but as exportsare expected to expand rapidly following successes with cropdiversification and enclave manufacturing, the balance of payments shouldimprove subsequently.

viii. A number of other factors may affect the realization of thegrowth prospects for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The key ones are theinflows of project-related external resources at concessional terms;further improvements in domestic savings via the realization of positivepublic sector savings through expenditure controls; and expansion ofnon-traditional agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. In the event thekey factors are not realized, GDP growth may continue to be sluggish andmay not exceed 3% p.a. in the medium term.

I. DOMESTIC SECTOR

Overview of the Economy

1. Recent economic development in St. Vincent and the Grenadines hasbeen based primarily on agriculture. As such, economic growth has beendetermined by the vagaries of weather and international demand, and it hasexhibited sharp fluctuations. Following two major natural disasters-avolcanic eruption in 1979 and a hurricane in 1980-economic activityrebounded, and real GDP grew at an average rate of 6% p.a. during 1981-83,mainly beLause of the strong recovery of agriculture and expansion intransport and communications (Table 1). The growth rate, however, returnedto the normal trend of 3% p.a. during 1984-85, since the expected growth innew sectors such as manufacturing failed to materialize while publicinvestment contracted substantially in 1984 but recovered to normal trendin 1985. The prospects for the economy in 1986 are good as a result of theexpansion of the construction and transport activities associated with theCumberland hydroelectric project currently under implementation and theincreased production and exports of r-n-traditional crops (e.g. root crops,etc. and fruits).

2. The performance of domestic savings and investment in St. Vincentand the Grenadines since 1980 has been dominated, on the part of savings,by improved public sector savings and, on the part of investment, by thecontraction of public sector investmenat Domestic savings rose substan-tially from a negative 2.3% of GDP in 1980 to 14.4% of GOP in 1985 as aresult of improved public sector savings, in turn the result of ongoingpublic sector financial and organizational reforms (para. 4). Despite theimprovement in domestic savings, gross domestic investment as a percentageof GDP declined marginally during 1980-85, as public sector investmentsfell over the period. Public investment is expected to be strong in thenext few years as a result of the implementation of the Cumberland hydro-electric project.

3. Despite the relatively high investment/GDP ratio of about 30%during 1984-85, the economy has been sluggish in recent years, andunemployment remains high. The Government's short-term approach includesthe establishment of a skills training program and the promotion of enclavetype labor-intensive industries. For this measure to be successful, theGovernment is cognizant that wage increases should be constrained in ordernot to erode St. Vincent's international competitiveness. Wage increasesof unionized public and private sector employees declined only -rginallyfrom 10% in 1984 to 9. in 1985, _.n contrast with 14% per annum during1980-83. Nevertheless, since the rate of inflation declined from 8% p.a.in 1981-83 to 2.5% p.a. in 1984-85, real wages have been increasing. Thistrend is likely to be accentuated by the 7% wage increase to CentralGovernment employees during 1986/87 and by a further 5% during 1987/88.Since substantial productivity increases are not likely in the medium-term,real wage increases should be restrained if St. Vincent's competitivenessis not to be eroded.

Public Sector Finances

4. Public sector finances improved significantly during the fouryears ending 1985/86. The current account balance of the consolidated

Table 1: belected Macroeconomic Indicators(percentage)

Prel.198U 1981 1982 i9b3 1984 196.5

As a ratio of GDP, mpConsumption 1U2.3 93.9 9b.9 94.1 b7.8 b5.tPrivate Sector 78.1 70.6 73.3 71.0 66.1 63.9Public Sector 24.2 23.3 23.6 23.1 21.7 21.7

Investment 4U.5 33.2 JU.4 31.9 27.U 4U.3Private Sector 21.3 15.6 16.1 19.6 17.2 17.8Public Sector 19.2 17.6 12.3 12.3 9.d 12.5

Gross Domestic Savings -2.3 b.1 3.1 5.9 12.2 14.4Gross National Savings 17.2 22.0 1b.3 22.4 2.6 22.0Public Sector C/A .. -u.3 1.2 1.0 2.8 b.bCentral Gov't C/A .. -1.5 -0.5 0.2 2.2 4.8

Public Sector Overall Balance .. -11.9 -5.2 -5.9 -3.J 1.9Central Gov't Uverall balance .. -2.5 -3.3 -2.6 1.0 3.4

Central Gov't Current Kevenues .. 26.9 2b.4 2b.9 29.5 31.oCentral Gov't Current Expenditures .. 28.4 29.9 2b.7 27.3 27.0

GDP (factor cost) Growth 2.7 7.4 5.d 5.1 3.2 3.1Consumer Price Index(period average) 17.2 12.7 7.3 5.4 z.7 2.0

Source: Statistical Appendix.

public sector tncreased from EC~2.1 million (1.2% of GOP) in 19b1/b2 toEC.ZZ.b million (b.b% ot 1uD) in 1965/do. This improvement resultedlargely from the good performance of the Central Government and the rest ofgeneral government, which compensated for the poor performance of publicenterprises. The disappointing perfo-mance of the latter and its implica-tions for domestic public debt was one oi the principal issues addressed bya Committee on Public Financing and lIebt appointed by the Government soonafter its election to office in 19b4. The recommendations of the Committeeconstituted a useful framework within which selected issues of some of theproblematic public enterprises are to be tackled (see paras. 10-il).

5. Central Government Finances: The Central Government currentaccount balance recovered from a deficit of EC$5.1 million in FY1981/82 toa surplus of ECO12.6 million (5% of GOP) in 1985/b6. This recoveryresulted from the rapid increases in revenue and the controls on the growthof expenditures. Revenue increases came from the collection of tax arrearsand from the restructuring of the tax system, with a deliberate shifttoward indirect taxes. These reforms included: (a) a consolidation of thestamp duty and the traders' tax (administered by the Kingstown Board) withthe consumption tax, and a concurrent shift of the tax burden away frombasic commodities to luxury items; (b) a restructuring of the personalincome tax system, with a standard deduction of EC§5,UUO from employmentincome, and relief for higher income earners through a widening of the taxbands; and (c) introduction of a 57 tax on all tickets for travel origina-ting from St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Controls on expenditure growthincluded a freeze on salary increases during FY65/bb and restraints onexpenditures tor gOods and services.

6. In its 1986 budget and the draft Development Plan (19db-bb), theGovernment has emphasized the importance of raising the level of domesticsavings, with a view to financing a sizable portion of the Public sectorInvestment Program (PSIP) and to meet the debt servicing needs. This taskmay be difficult, given the likelihood of slower revenue growth in themedium term, the projected increases in current expenditures and theproblems of public enterprises (discussed below). As noted earlier, theunusually high increase in revenue' in 19b5/8b came mainly from a one-timecollection of tax arrears. Compared to past rates of revenue growth,ranging from 3b6 in FY9hi/82 to lb% in iYfO64/b.), medium-term revenuegrowth is liKely to follow the path of aggregate consumption growth(projected at bZ for 198b) because of the marked shift toward indirecttaxation. Growth in Central Government expenditures will largely depend onthe increase in the wage bill (about 44X of total recurrent expenditures),which is expected to rise by at least IZX over the next two years (i.e.,FYbb/67 and iFYbi/d) because of the recent public sector wage agreement,and on steady increases in current expenditures for goods and services.Unless the issues concerning revenue and expenditures discussed below areadequately addressed, the targets for raising domestic savings are notlikely to be realized.

7. Although greater reliance is being placed on indirect taxes forrevenue growth in the tuture, the institutional frameworK of the CustomsDepartment--the agency responsible for the assessment and collection esindirect taxes--remains weak. Revenue losses occur because if shortcomingsin the valuation of imports, which has been hampered by starting short-ages. Likewise, the shortage of skilled personnel has been an impedimentto proper assessment and collection of consumption taxes. Moreover, theCustoms Department lacks a suitably developed information system to monitorits functions effectively. To address these issues, the Customs Departmentneeds to be strengthened by: (a) the establishment of a Valuation branch,with adequate statf, preferably trained on-the-job on an attachment basisin the Customs Departments of other countries where valuation is carriedout effectively; (b) expanding and improving the inspectorate for theassessment and collection of consumption taxes; and (c) setting up of amanagement information system at the Customs vepartment, including thecomputerization of its records and basic statistics, to help in monitoringits operations effectively. The Government has just begun to address theabove issues by securing assistance from the USAID tor financing theposition of a controller. A comprehensive technical assistance programshould be assigned high priority In view of the implications for revenuegeneration.

b. The growth of airect tax revenues is also likely to be slow as aresult of the tax relief mentioned above (the exemption limit and expandedtax bands) and the tax incentives offered to new enterprises. Theserevenue losses could, however, be compensated tor by raising the level otefficiency of tax collection. Two ways by which this objective could beachieved in the short term are: (a) a concerted effort to reduce the levelof income tax arrears, currently estimated at iC412 million; and (b) aprogram of computerizing the tax records so as to improve assessment andcoverage.

9. As regards expenditure control, procedures have been alreadyestablished to monitor expenditure ui a monthly and quarterly basis. TheMonthly Accounting Printout sent by tae Treasury Department to all the

-4-

operating ministries is a useful tool tor monitoring expenditures on amonthly basis. The information in these statements also serves as thebasis for each ministry's request for its quarterly allotment of fuxtu. fromthe Ministry of linance and Planning. The latter ministry tnen informseach ministry what funds are available each quarter relative to what wasrequested. Tnis quarterly allotment system taKes into account the non-unitormity in spending patterns of the various ministries during a fiscalyear, whereas the Monthly Accounting Printout (introduced about 16 yearsago) does not. Modification of the latter to reflect the non-uniformspenaing patterns would make it a more useful monitoring tool.

1U. k'ublic Enterprise Finances: The poor financial performance ofthe public enterprise sector as whole, as measured by current accountdeficits of the order of hC43 million p.a. during 1962/d3-1964/b5, stemlargely trom problems at three main enterprises: Sugar Industry Ltd.(SIL), Arrowroot Industry Association (AIA), and Central Water and bewerageAuthority (CWSA). While their problems need to be approached case-by-case,from the standpoint of monitoring the progress with domestic resourcemobilization for development, it is suggested that the Government reviewthe overall performance of public sector enterprises (e.g. through thedevelopment of a consolidated public enterprise account) on an annualbasis. Consideration may also be given to adopting a uniform fiscal yearfor all public enterprises to aid the financial review process and tacili-tate the accounting worlc.

11. Ever since it was established in 1979, SIL experienced majortechnical problems that resulted in substantial losses. Following therecommendation of the FAU, the Government closed the factory in mid-1965and assumed its debt, which would be serviced in part from the profitsderived from the sale of imported sugar in the domestic market. Theproblem of the arrowroot industry is largely exogenous, traceable mainly tothe fall in the world price of arrowroot starch that resulted from competi-tion from substitute starches, mainly from brazil, and from technologicaladvances in the US that have led to the modification of various starchesfor industrial use. These market changes led exports of arrowroot todecline from 1.5 million lb. in 19M0 to U.7 million lb. in 1985, with thelosses incurred over the last three years averaging around SC$1 millionp.a. The total stock of arrowroot starch with the ALA amounts to 2.bmillion lb., or 3.7 times the past year's level of exports. It is recom-mended that early action be taken to: (a) dispose of the existing stock atthe best possible price and thereby reduce the AIA's debts and the cost ofholding the stock; and (b) lower the price paid to the farmer to a levelthat results in no losses to the AIA and thereby induces farmers to diver-sify production. These measures would help reduce the scale of operationsof AIA and yet leave open the possibility of expansion should arrowrootprices turn favorable in the future.

12. In contrast, the problems of CWSA are largely internal: chiefly,the failure of management to recover outstanding rates and charges, thehigh cost of maintaining inefficient equipment and delivery systems anddelays in rescheduling debt or converting it to equity. Concerted effortsare therefore needed to: (a) collect the arrears of charges throughrigorous enforcement of the penalties for non-payment; (b) implement cost-effective measures in the use of materials, labor and vehicles; and

- 5 -

(c) reach agreement with the National Commercial Bank on rescheduling debtor converting it to equity, in the context of a total restructuring effort.

Credit and Interest Rates

13. Because of the absence of a local Central Bank (St. Vincent andthe Grenadines is a member of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) andshares a common currency with the other members), credit and interest rateshave closely followed the activities of commercial banks. The commercialbanking sector is comprised of the state-owned National Commercial Bank(NCB) and four branches of foreign-owned commercial banks, all of whichoperate within the context of regulations covering the legal reserverequirements (currently 6%) and interest rates on savings deposits(currently a minimum of 4%) imposed by the ECCB. Until July 31, 1985, theceilings imposed by the Government on loans ranged from 12.5% to 14.5%,while the rates for savings deposits were between 2.5% and 5%. Althoughthere is a 2% tax on interest bearing deposits (payable to the Government),the spread of about 7.3% earned by commercial banks is among the highest inthe OECS. This spread has not been altered by the ECCB's imposition onJanuary 1, 1985, of minimum interest rates of 4X on savings deposits or bythe Government's removal of the ceiling on interest charges in August 1,1985, (see Statistical Appendix Table 6.4).

14. The rate of growth of loans and advances to the private sectorslowed to 11.9% in 1984, compared to 19.4% p.a. in 1982-83. While therewas an increase in the share of loans and advances for agriculture, accessto credit by small farmers remains unsatisfactory. In order to meet thegrowing financial needs of the majority of farmers, commercial banks wouldneed to obtain the services of trained project and loan officers. They areunwilling to take this step, however, because the rate of return on lendingto agriculture is low compared to other types of commercial lending. Thelarge commercial bank spread suggests the need for a review of the cost ofbanking so as to rationalize interest rate policy.

II. EXTERNAL SECTOR

balance of Payments

15. The balance of payments of St. Vincent and the Grenadines hasbecome significantly stronger in recent years (Table 2). As a result ofthe expansiou of exports, which grew by 12% p.a. during 1981-85, comparedto a 6% p.a. growth in imports, the deficit on the current account of thebalance of payments narrowed from 23% of GDP in 1981 to BZ in 1985.Efforts to improve the balance of payments further should continue to be anobjective of tne Government. The reason is that in a small economy such asSt. Vincent and the Grenadines, the external sector is critical indetermining the response of the domestic sector as the domestic market istoo small to sustain economic activity at high income levels. Thus, theformulation and implementation of prudent policies with respect to thebalance of payments are useful in supporting the economy against -heinevitable external shocks.

Table 2: balance of Payments Indicators(percentages)

Prel.190 19b1 1962 1983 19a4 1985

As a Ratio of GDPBalance of PaymentsCurrent Account -23.2 -11.2 -1Z.O -9.5 -4.5 -6.,Exports of hoods and NES 67.1 62.3 57.5 61.3 7u.0 77.6Imports of Goods and NFS 109.9 89.5 84.8 57.3 d4.s 93.6

Kesource Balance -4Z.8 -z7.2 -z7.3 -bt.0 -14.8 -15.9External Public Capital (net) 14.4 9.5 8.3 7.3 ).8 11.9

Official Grant 6.7 4.8 4.3 3.3 2.5 4.2Loans 7.7 3.8 2.9 .8d 2.2 7.1Other 0.0 U.9 1.1 I.4 1.1 U.t

Private Investment 1.9 U.7 0.7 1.1 U.4 0.6

Debt Service/Exports of GNFS .. 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 4.1Debt Service/Central Gov't Revenue .. 7.8 6.2 b.5 7.9 b.4Average Interest Rateon External Debt .. 5.6 5.3 4.9 -.1 4.9

Source: Statistical Appendix.

External Debt

16. The current account deficits on the balance of payments werefinanced largely by concessionary loans and, to a lesser extent, privateinvestment associated mainly with export-oriented enclave industries.Official borrowing remained virtually constant in 191-64 but registered asubstantial increase in 1985 because of the initial disoursements of loansrelated to the construction of the Cumberland hydroelectric project. Thus,St. Vincent and the Grenadines' outstanding external public debt declinedsteadily from an equivalent of 27X of GiP at the end of 1981 to 23% at theend of 1984, but increased to 28% at the end of 1985. The outstandingexternal debt carries an average interest rate of )X and an averagematurity of 15 years. As a result of these terms, the debt serviceremained a modest 4% of exports of goods and non-factor services in 1985(10% of Central Government Revenues). Despite the substantial strengthe-ing of both public sector finances and the balance of payments, as well asthe Government's improved ability to service its external debt, because ofSt. Vincent and the Grenadines' constant high vulnerability to naturaldisasters (a recent storm in September 1966 and associated heavy rainfalldestroyed about 4U% of its banana crop--a Key export earner), the countryshould continue to rely on concessional funds in the medium term.

111. SELECTED SECTOR POLICY ISSUES

17. The Government is in the process of publishing its three-yearDevelopment Plan, which outlines the main development objectives,

strategies, and policies for the period 1986-88. The theme is growth,diversification, and redistribution. The objective of the Government isto generate, over the medium term, conditions conducive to the continuedimprovement of the economic and social welfare of St. Vincent and theGrenadines. The Government hopes to attain its objective through astrategy of increasing exports and employment based on growth in agricul-ture, manufacturing, and tourism, while also taking advantage of opportuni-ties for import substitution when a clear comparative advantage exists.The Government's export orientation policy is sound but should refrain frompromoting inefficient import substitution indus.tries, as the example of thefailure of sugar production and processing has shown. The Government plansto broaden the productive base of the economy through crop diversificationin the agriculture sector, continued emphasis on industrial estatedevelopment and the promotion of specialized tourism. The strategyenvisages the private sector eventually becoming the main engine of growth.

Agriculture

18. The agriculture sector in St. Vincent and the Grenadinesaccounted for 19% of GOP and b% of the country's export earnings in 1985.Despite a severe drought during 1973-75, the eruption ot the Soufrierevolcano in 1979 and a hurricane in 1900, the sector has managed to retain aposition of crucial importance in the economy. Production performance in1985 continued to be encouraging, mainly as a result of increases in theproductivity in banana production and increased marketing efforts forexports of root crops, fruits and spices to the regional markets, mainlyTrinidad and Tobago. Exports of non-traditional crops (eddoes anddasheens, sweet potatoes, tannias and yams) have risen sharply in recentyears as a result of a substantial increase in production, from about 15million pounds in l191 to 7b million pounds in 1985.

19. The main issues confronting the sector are product diversifica-tion, marketing and land reform. Until recently, bananas and arrowrootdominated the exports of agriculture products. tiowever, since the collapseof the arrowroot market in 1982, nontraditional crops (eddoes and dasheens,sweet potatoes, tannias, and yams) have played an important role as exportcommodities. Efforts at export diversification have, however, been heavilyoriented toward the regional markets, notably Trinidad and Tobago. Sincethese markets are limited, access has tended to be a problem. TheGovernment is tackling it by promoting exports to extra-regional markets.Currently it is exploring pr-vate sector investment in winter vegetablestargetted to the US market, as well as opportunities for entering the NorthAmerican cut-flower market. The inadequacy of air transportation inSt. Vincent may pose problems (see para. 27). Since the range of commodi-ties currently under consideration is very large, the Government shouldseek technical assistance to help farmers to define clearly the set ofcommodities well-suited for St. Vincent's agronomic environment, as well asthose with favourable marketing possibilities, in order to promote highyields and profitability.

20. Aside from bananas and arrowroot, whose marketing is handled bythe respective associations and to some extent by the St. Vincent MarketingCorporation (SVMC), the organization of marketing on the whole is inade-quate. Three important aspects of the problem can be identified: market

- 8 -

information, storage and packaging, and processing. The Government isseeking technical assistance to identify markets, the most suitable ways ofselling to them, and the most effective products. Once these have beenidentified, the Government's priority should be to provide appropriatestorage, as well as processing and packaging facilities.

21. In its effort to promote crop diversification, the Government iscognizant of the constraints posed by land availability and the need forefficient utilization of arable land. The Government owns approximately4,500 acres of land in six estates. Their operation has been inefficient,and where the land has been subdivided and transferred to small farmers,the lack of adequate infrastructure has constrained development of aneffective farm community. The Government intends to avoid piecemeal landreform and is undertaking a comprehensive approach to the problem. Theobjective of the Government's land reform program is to encourage smallfarmer ownership of land since St. Vincent's experience has been thatefficiency of the small farms is higher than that of large farms, and smallfarms are not characterized by labor problems. The proposed orange HillDevelopment project constitutes the core of the Government's land reformprogram. The main component is the subdivision in three phases ofapproximately 2,UU0 acres into small farms (of about 5 acres each).

Manufacturing

22. The manufacturing sector comprises the production of arrowrootstarch, flour, food products, animal feed and export-oriented enclave-typeindustries producing garments, metal products, sporting goods, electroniccomponents, watches and furniture. It. contributed 1U.5% of GDP in 19b5,but growth over the past five years has been low. Except for a 6% increasein 1982, manufacturing output rose by less than 2% p.a. during 1Y63-85.The poor performance of the sector was the result of setbacks in theagro-based industries such as arrowroot and sugar, which more than offsetthe strong growth of some of the enclave industries.

23. The medium-term objective of the Government is to intensify itsefforts to promote the establishment of efficient manufacturing enterprisesfor the purpose of generating jobs, promoting exports and saving foreignexchange. In this context, efforts will be focused on agro-processing,garments, sporting goods, electronic assembly and toys. These subsectorshave been targetted because of employment-generating capability. Insupport of these efforts, the Government intends to review the concessionsavailable under the Fiscal Incentives Act as well as to increase incentivesat the local level to promote indigenous investment.

24. To further its program in the manufacturing sector, twounresolved constraints need the Government's attention: the shortage offactory shells and the need for institutional strengthening ot theDevelopment Corporation (Dk;VCO). In order to promote external privateinvestment in manufacturing, the Government has taken an active role indeveloping factory shells. About JU,0UO sq. feet of CGui-financed factoryshells became available at the end of 1985, and an additional 20,U00 sq.feet were completed by mid-1tsb, of which 1U,UOO sq. feet are reserved foroccupation by a company already operating in the country. Since no factoryshells are currently under construction and none are empty at the moment(as the Government is having difficulty getting the COB's approval for

- 9 -

additional funds because of issues related to )EVWU's loan administration),a shortage of factory space in early 19b7 is possible. The Government ishoping that local investors who have shown interest in constructing factoryshells under the USAID-sponsored Infrastructure for Productive InvestmentProj?ct (IPIP) will take up the slack. Apart from promoting private sectorparticipation in the factory shell program, the Government should alsoresolve the issue of infrastructure development in the proposed DiamondEstate to permit work on it to commence.

25. The main institution responsible for promoting manufacturing andproviding development finance is DEVCO. The corporation is, however,deficient in critical managerial and technical staff and has lacked aclearly defined goal. With technical assistance from USAID, the Governmenthas conducted a study whose objective was to strengthen DEVCO institution-ally and to define its goals clearly. While the Government has acceptedthe organizational restructuring of 1JVCO recommended by the report, it hashad difficulty gettiug personnel for the management positions identified.It is actively seeking technical assistance personnel to resolve thisproblem in the short to medium term. It will also need to put in place atraining program so as to upgrade the staff of DEVCO.

Tourism

2b. Tourism is a relatively small sector in St. Vincent and theGrenadines; its contribution to GDP, as measured by the value added of thehotel and restaurant sector, has remained at about 2X in the past fiveyears. The number of visitors declined slightly in 1965 as a result ot thereturn to normal trend of cruiseship visitors. These had increasedsubstantially during 1984 following events occuring in Grenada towards theend of 1983. Nevertheless, there is substantial potential in theGrenadines for tourism development, as the islands are uniquely endowed asa haven for yachtsmen, and sea lovers, and for other forms of specializedtourism. The Government is cognizant of this potential and in itsdevelopment plan has undertaken to embark on a promotional program, throughthe private sector, to develop the sector.

27. Three main factors inhibit tourism promotion in St. Vincent anathe Grenadines: accessibility, accommodations, and competitive pricing.Accessibility is complicated by the absence of an alrport capable ofhandling large aircraft, so that tourists must transfer to St. Vincent fromeither Barbados, at. Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, or Martinique.This problem complicates booking arrangements, and the Government believesthat it is a disincentive for tourists. A comprehensive study into thelong-term developmer.t of air tacilities in St. Vincent will be carried outover the medium term. The Government is presently exploring thepossibilities of improving transit arrangements in Barbados and St. Lucia.

2b. The issues of tourist accommodation and pricing are inter-related. Small hotels form the basis of tourism in St. Vincent and theGrenadines. Except tor the hotels in the Grenadines that cater exclusivelyto the international visitor and that are of adequately high quality, mosthotels on the mainland are not sufficiently good in terms of facilities andservices. At the same time, hotel accommodation rates are prohibitivelyhigh, exacerbated by the shortage of quality facilities. There is the needto upgrade existing facilities and to introduce price competition into the

- 10 -

sector (aimed at lowering hotel room rates) through attracting investmentinto new hotel facilities. These measures will help reduce hotel rates forlow quality establishment and improve services. Training for hoteliers andstaff should also be considered.

IV. PUBLIC SECTOM INVESTMW4T FROGI(AM

V9. The level of expenditures on the Public Sector Investment Program(PSIP) recovered substantially in FY1985/bb--they amounted to BC$3Umillion-compared to that of the previous year, but were still substantial-ly less than the ECA58 million projected in the 1985/8b budget estimates.The reasons for the shortfall were the slow rate of disbursement on linesof credit because of weak private sector demand, the slow implementation ofthe industrial estates project, shortages of inputs (such as aggregaterock) that hampered progress on the ongoing road rehabilitation projects,and procurement difficulties associated with the Cumberland hydroelectricand other related projects. The Government is improving the administrativeprocedures for procurement and establishing a new quarry that will helpimprove the supply of aggregate rock.

Medium-Term PSIP

30. As part of its three-year Development Plan, the Government hasput together a PSIP covering the period 198b-db. The PSIP containsprojects for which external financing has been identified and those withlocal financing. The package is basically consistent with the Governmentobjective of providing basic infrastructure to support the development ofthe economy; it is thus basically sound. Un the basis of the performanceof the PSI? in 1905/t8b, the heavy civil work involved in the ongoingprogram supported by external consultants, and the strengthening of theproject monitoring system, expenditures on the PSIP should double inl9bo/87 to roughly ECObO million and remain at that level in 19b7/68. Theincrease is based on the assumption that implementation of the Cumberlandhydroelectric project, which is currently 8 to 12 weeks behind schedule,will proceed without further delay. The Cumberland project is expected toaccount for 59% of all expenditures in 19b6/67 and 4b% in i9ii7/db.Excluding the Cumberland project, expenditures on the PSI? are expected toincrease by 45X in l9bb/87 and Zb% in 1967/dd. The increases are dependenton the Government's success in stimulating private sector demand forindustrial lines of credit and for factory shells and on the timelyimplementation of some major projects in the PSIP.

31. In addition to the ongoing projects, two important ones areexpected to come on-stream in FY66b/b7. They are the quarry Development andOrange dill Development programs. The yuarry Development project isfinanced by the CI). An existing quarry plant was once operated by thedefunct Government Funding Scheme (GFS) and currently is being operated bythe newly created General Equipment and Services Corporation (GBSCO), astatutory body. The poor condition of the quarry was the cause of theshortage of aggregates during 1965/bb. (YSCO will be charged withquarrying activities until the new project is implemented. lmplementationof the Orange Hill Development programs is also expected to begin some timein 19b6/87. This project will cost approximately EC425 million, andfinancing is expected from the EEC, CDB, CIDA and the UK. Other major newprojects include a proposed CDB-financed expansion of feeder roads in

- 11 -

St. Vincent and the provision of infrastructure in the Grenadines, theconstruction of a primary school in Kingstown, to be financed by the UK,and the redevelopment of the Kingstown hospital, to be tinanced by the EEC.

32. The distribution of expenditures on the PSI? reveals a neavyemphasis on expansion ot the energy sector, which accounts for roughlyone-half of all expenditures during the program's period. This bias isalmost entirely the result of the inclusion of the Cumberland hydroelectricproject in the PSIF. Excluding it results in a P51k that emphasizesinvestment in agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation. Sinceprojects in the agriculture sector consist mainly of various supportschemes for farmers, and those for the manufacturing sector consist of theconstruction of factory shells for rental to private investors, thesectoral allocation of the PSIP is consistent with the Government'sobjective of encouraging greater private sector investment.

Selected Issues

33. Financing. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has relied to a largeextent on highly concessional capital inflows to finance its PSIP and hopesto continue mobilizing external resources on concessionary terms. Of theproposed public sector investment expenditures, which amounted to EC4144million in MY85/8t-87/86, the Government expects to mobilize about hC4131million or 90% of the total program outlay, from external sources(Table 3). About 63Z of the external inflows will be on a grant basis,with the rest borrowed at an approximately 5X interest rate. The domesticcounterpart requirements, which amount to EC§14 million, will not result inimplementational delays, as the levels of public sector savings (estimatedat ECS18 million p.a. during 1984/85-1985/6b) are expected to increase.

Table 3: Financing the Public Sector Investment Program(EC$ million)

Actual Projected19b4/85 1985/Sb 198b/87 1967/1b

Total Investment 19.3 30.3 57.5 5b.JExternal Sources 15.8 27.1 5u.8 52.0Loans 8.5 10.0 14.4 23.3Committed (-) (8.4) (12.2) (15.1)Uncommitted (-) (1.b) (2.2) (8.2)

Grants 7.3 17.1 36.4 29.3Local 3.5 3.2 b.7 3.9

Source: Statistical Appendix.

34. i.ecurrent Cost Implications. The ongoing and proposed PSIPrepresents a significant expansion of the country's capital stock as aresult of the Cumberland hydro project and the expansion of the primary andfeeder roads network. Nevertheless, the impact of the PSIP on the CentralGovernment's recurrent expenditures in the future is expected to be smalland confined to the transport sector. The Cumberland hydro project isbeing executed by the St. Vincent Electricity Corporation (VINLEC). Theadoption of cost recovery principles through tariff increases (agreed uponwith IDA) should be sufficient to service the debts incurred to finance the

- 12 -

project while meeting operating expenses and providing tor tuture capitalrequirements. uther projects implemented by public enterprises (notablythe improvement of water supply services, port facilities and efforts inthe manufacturing sector) should pose no recurrent cost problems-to theCentral Government if cost recovery practices are followed, a strategy towhich the Government is committed. Projects in infrastructure aimed at theexpansion of the road network will place some pressure on the CentralGovernment's budget. The mission estimated that the incremental recurrentcosts associated with ongoing road construction programs would amount toEkCU.4 million by 1%7/8b, a modest level with respect to the projectedCentral Government savings.

35. Institutional Capacity. The availability of local administrativeand managerial skills continues to constrain the implementation of thePSIP. Project identification, implementation and monitoring continue to beweak. The Government has requested technical assistance from the USDP tosupport work on the project cycle. The assistance is to be in the torm oftechnical personnel to perform essentially in line management functions.Unless counterpart staff can be assigned, it is unlikely that the develop-ment of an institutional capacity, which should be the objective of anytechnical assistance, will occur. Nevrertheless, since the problem is thelack of local personnel with relevant academic backgrounds, the issue canonly be resolved in the medium term through the provision of Governmentscholarships for training at the university level. Thereafter, on-the-jobtraining should supplement efforts at developing a local institutionaleapacity for project identification, implementation and monitoring. TheGovernment is cognizant of these issues and i:s placing more emphasis onexternal training to develop technical personnel.

V. MHEDIUM-TERM GKOWTH PROSPECTS

Prospects and Policy Kequirements

3b. Growth prospects (Table 4) in St. Vincent and the Grenadines overthe next two years will be dominated by the construction and transportactivities associated with the ongoing Cumberland hydroelectric andagriculture projects and the projected high inflow of external capital.GDP is expected to grow by about b% p.a. during 1966-87, based on thisoptimistic scenario. On the other hand, if the expected external inflowsfail to materialize, GDP may grow at about 3% p.a. during 19bU-67,declining to 2Z thereafter. As Table 4 indicates, the low scenario wouldalso be characterized by lower investment/GIP ratios, a decline in thepublic savings and a contraction in the balance of payments (see alsoAnnex III).

37. In the medium term, growth prospects in the high growth scenariowill be influenced by tthe success of the Government's efforts to encouragecrop diversification, in particular, to implement its land reform program,and to promote private sector participation in agriculture. These effortsshould lead to about a A% growth in the value added by agriculture during19bb-90. the performance in manufacturing may continue to be sluggish inthe short term, unless the shortage of factory shells is resolved.Moderate growth rates of about 2-3Z are, however, expected formanufacturing during 19bb-87; thereafter, when the factory shells programmaterializes, 5% p.a. growth should be possible. If the ongoing economic

- 13 -

Table 4: Selected Macroeconomic Projections(Percentage)

1986-90 1986-901905 (High Growth) (Low Growth)

As a ratio of (A)PInvestment 30 3 32.9 U.Consumption bt.b 83.0 b3.dNational Savings LZ*0 Z5,8 23.5Public Sector Savings b,b 7.b b.bResource Gap -1.9 -13.3 -13.0balance of Payments -8.3 -7.5 -5.7Debt Service/Export UNF3 4.1 3.9 3.bDebt Service/Central Gov't Kevenue 9.9 10.9 10.8GUP (mp) irowth 3.1 4.9 2.5

and trade liberalization policies and private sector promotion aremaintained, the service sector should be expected to grow in line with thegrowth of GDP.

38. Public sector finances should be expected to improve in themedium term as measures to strengthen the weak finances of tne nonfinancialpublic enterprises (notably, the ALA and the CWSA) are implemented. Withrespect to the ALA, it would be necessary to reduce its activities tocorrespond to the external demand for arrowroot. The CWSA should be aimingat break-even on its operations. Central Government current revenuesshould not be expected to rise rapidly, as improvements are to resultessentially from ongoing efficiency measures in revenue collection. Conse-quently, ongoing expenditure rationalization programs should be maintain-ed. Although public sector capital investment during 198b-68 is expectedto be high because of the Cumberland hydroelectric project, reliance on thedomestic banking system should be small because of the good prospects forexternal financing.

39. The expansion in project-related activities during the periodsuggests that imports of capital goods are likely to rise rapidly,especially during 1986-88. The balance of payments current account is thuslikely to deteriorate in the medium term, but as exports are expected toexpand fast following success with crop diversification and enclave-typemanufacturing, the balance of payments should improve over the mediumterm. Since a large proportion of the PSIP over the medium term would befinanced with external resources, the external debt, which is estimated atUS$29 million in 1985, is projected to almost double. Despite this shift,the debt service ratio is not expected to increase significantly, as mostcommitted external assistance in the form of loans is on largelyconcessionary terms.

Implications

40. Un the basis of the above, a number of factors may affect therealization of growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The key factorsare the level of the inflows of project-related external resources atconcessional terms; further improvements in domestic savings as a result ofthe realization of positive public sector savings through expenditurecontrols; and the expansion of non-traditional agriculture, manufacturing

- 14 -

and tourism if there is favourable private sector response to Uovernment'spolicy and initiatives. The Government in the past has toilowed a prudentmacroeconomic policy and should continue to do so. With respect toexternal financing, on the basis of the PSIP and the balance of paymentsprojections for the high growth scenario (Annex III), the additionalfinancing requirements over the medium term amounts to USs2.0 million p.a.for 1986-90, which would go mainly for balance of payments support(Table 5). If the external financing is not realized, the low growthscenario is more likely to be realized in the medium term.

Table ): External Capital Requirements(USM million)

198b 1986-VU

I Requirements 10.0 49.7Current Account Deficit s.7 39.4Amortization 1.3 10.3

I Capital Available 7.6 3b.1Loan (Committed) 3.5 Z4.4Grants (Committed) -Loan/Grant (Uncommitted) 2.4 13.7Direct Investment 1.7 -

III Additional Financing(10P Support) /.4 11..:

Source: Annex III.

- 15 -ANNEX IPage 1 of 8

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS

1. This annex contains a list of major ongoing projects, a list ofnew projects for FY86/87 and a list of technical assistance requirementsfor the short and medium term. The lists contain the names of theprojects, executing agencies, lenders/donors (if any), total costs,external financing obtained or required, and periods for implementation.

2. Data for these projects were prepared by the Government ofSt. Vincent and the Grenadines with the assistance of the Bank mission. Anupdated project list will be issued at the subgroup meeting during theSeventh Caribbean Group Meeting.

- 16 -

Po9 1 of 2

ST. VINHET AND 11E GUMOII S STUS A F HOW R PMM Ecr

Tofal Source Typ

Cost of od Executing

Ptojot MIND0 stonl fad floaning Sector Agency / Statu

Industrial Esntat 47 432 La L"n UMn NS Ongoing

Mt. antick Run OlatiIlety 50SW 4018 0 Lon Mond RPS Onping

Stdent Lans IV A V IUIO ISI wa Loan Edc WS Owing

twate bovelogxnt - Installatln of Motrs 1491 132 ID Lo water WS OGping

Elhottloity Syst-2nd 374FR 12U 12150 coo Loan Powr IL Gngolng

horovntb to Wate SUpit I. 1157 117 CM8 Great Water RPS Ongoing

irf Exttnslon 6210 3589 0DB Lo Transp.Seo IPS Onoing

Pnur Project 51R & 3OSfR 784; 6463 00 Lean Pow.r IL Ongoing

Consoidated Lin of Credit 4050 4050 e Loan Othr Econ WS Ogaing

Input Revolving Fund 194 1948 Lon Agric NRS Ongoing

Natlil _eanbtlon Centra 112 112 amRC Grant Other Co Ongoing

Corp Handling Equipment - Kingston 1no 170 CIA Orant TrwnapASoa RPS OngoingFruit Fly Trapping .. .. CIDA Grant Agric Co Ongoing

luproanbt to Schools 10 900 EWoE Lonl Educ Co NM

Fruit ad Vgetable Poo. 91419 14409 ) Lan Manf WS NM

Caerland Hydra 60 60 CIOAAEGIAGUS Grant Powr WlS Ongoing

Port Authority Stand*y Gnators *. ,. CIDA Grant Trnp*A RPS Ogoing

Port Hadling Equipent Phase It 12 0 CIDA Orant Treanp.se RPS Ongolag

Baiula Roade Omlopant 105 0 fEVU Local Traa.Rdts CS Gping

Aoiulsiton of MC Shareholding in VWlC 158 0 ElwwS Local Power N. Onping

Klingstam Port Devalopamt .. 0 OEV S Lol TronAp.e NL Owgoing

Land AiaqisitileWwrrty Oithnaatirn 794 794 DEV30 Loafi Oter Econ CO Gqlpng

Liestock Omlpodnt (Phb 1) .. .. EE Gant AgrIc co Onoing

Otbr (1) Sl S231 Misce. Grant Othir co OnoingLow Ost Hoing Schdw (Taiwan - NOB) 1tOS 1091 Taiwan Loan Hose WS ongog

Gorgpta water Sipply Projeet (Tahn - NCO) .. .. Taiwu Loan Water BPS Ongolng

multi-island VocatIoaIl Training ProJect 270 0 IEVES Local Educ Co Ongolng

Oats Proeling 132 0 IWE Local Other Cs Ongolq

Rnotlon tOon nt Hou $11 0 flinE Grant Other co Ongoing

Purchae of Land - S. Rivers .. .. EIIEIE Grant Eduo cO OngoingTop WkrMing Mao - Extenlon 168 t6 VA Grant ArIc (a Ongoing

Pwaeh of Polle RadIo 441 441 UK Grent Pub*Sa co ngaing

Overland Primry School 449 449 UK Grant Educ Co Ongoing

Comminty DevelopmntPrOr 217S 2176 Ut Gr0ant H"lth Co angoleg

an Indutry Support Scb 484 484 tK grant Agrie R?S Onging

Storeroon- Family P iming Service 38 UW Grant lIcith (a Onoi

-17 -

Pag 2 of 2St. ViN A MIE ODINS8 StAS CF IWOR EC18

Total $emmas Type

Coat of df EmcatingProject EC0'C00 Ex0nt i Fuub Seto Agen of Stotu

Produtiv Infrestrwtwu Rublitatio 1i am00 N0O USA Laen Trnsp.Rd OB NmmAglelultaue Diversification an Prutbn am64 W1D US Gnt Agri Co OngilegReplamomnt of Radio Tns0tter - Radio 7B 44 44 USA Get CM$ 00 OnwoingPrductive Infratrue*u Rhebilltatim 1 5h a100 US Oralt TInep.Rds OCOoingCriben Agricultural Exntlon Project (CW) 540 540 USA Grast Astis co owingFoed Aid Storage 63 63 w nat Health CO OngoingRoad n_owesta - SFPh I 343SO 343 8 ant Tran.Rds co OnoingWatt Inovan tas - 8 I 227 227 e Oreant Water Co OnwingGrndine. mltipurpo w0o 430 5 Loan Other EC o 0 NMQumwy Dove lpt - Phm I 8100 730 09 Loan N f as NwDlaW industrial Estat 1S0 1250 Le t nf IS NwOran Hill 3500 313D 0l Low Agric CO NWAgriitural F r Roads 111 6534 Sol COO ln TrepRds C NWOran geil 2 200 CID Gra"t Aril co thwDlavnd insttrial Estate 125u 130 CI a GOat mtf AI NmCois AIr.ttrp - Surfalng 6C 600 C10A Grant TrmnspAir CG OnolagDevelopmnt of Fishing Industry 00 2200 CIOA rat AiG as NwReed Rlubililtatlan1lprowaats 55 0 EVICIWS Loua Transp.Rde CO OngingSe & Riot Defeue sO 0 EvUIS Loa Otbhr Eon 0 nowingRichmond Lend Settlewt - lnfintr are 4w0 0 EVOI Loel Other leon 00 NoRebliltatlon ot Wla"rd HMlgh 172 0 WIWOS Lol Tva.Rds oB OwiongKingsehn Hoapital Redlopuet 500 5000 EEC Grat msith c MNOr Ngiii 200 200O Mc Glt Avic co NWRepIrs to Fost. end S_er Outfall Is 0 5&V/O$ Lenai H"lth cO OngolngIqmrovmnts to m Vale Aliort Is 0 aEm Locl Trasp.AIr C OngoingOriSal ien Laboratorles - 6H8 60 0 SYfh Lo¢ l Edue C0 NM1090asats te F PW S8to petry Works"p 2i8 0 £EVUI LowsI Othr Econ CO OngingEquipment - Hospital A Other Hlth Fec. 442 0 w4m Grnt IHalth C0 NWVector Control Preog - Vehlole 48 0 ME rnt H"lth cS OnpingGaorgtomn - Fay Road - Plu I 100 lS0 1% Grant TranpJds CB onoIngBanm lndstry Suport S_hm UO 1400 15 Loen Ari fPS bNM2stuctlon of New Ki[Ntos Prl_y School 2960 2960 Ut Grant EAsu Co New

Costgrd 810 13 113 tU Grant Pub.Saf 00 NmTourFeelea itlot 246 248 U MAS Great Tourbm 00 NmAgrolab D0 500 UNIOO rnt lErf c0 Nm

&/ Arewhtlaons uigify te tolld"ngs (1) OB - Central Goermato (2) RPS - Rest of Public Sctor; an (3) NL - Na-local.

Soree Central Planning Unit, MiIsItry of F1inee.

W. VINt IM =M I= aM.L CImATION PfOM16 1982 - 11SO

LtST OP TEQtCM. MTSlNT Pt MS IN P1 NMI (t)

crm IOOO)

TStLE4SllIET tl;ST aT IECs LUIWOT R TASWt2) tLFTtaIO3) STA7US4) amo

veterlmry Surpo 32 3a2 aW AD t reet Aou. 1950 Joe. twU 0 Tim r wilt ft_mm fu eo hs f Japat tt01. t

Aprmlst .. .. K geat .. .. 0. Tim 3 Amlet Otmtlel bae" _. N. t t ,U 0.125 au S *reat AM Slob "W 06 ft TN* Prerml tw fOrmp "Ills preaetit ot Agrcterel w Sete Pl`a. otby

lrt_ct Adt er. .. .. W tcl rat JAm 11S my 125 Au The - Ot.

C _ otin Aielar BRA .. WTCw) *t sop. tSS Au 1257 On The Ajiemt I 5ew _ed b St. WVburn. Otw I

Agrkaiubrel Vilasu .. .. TAI6 gramt t#2t 116 Au Tim TA In prductSlmo eoft teodtfoml ICItu. Oftb

t_ (3) 127 52 VW t;eet Apr. 11i0 A.. t1 Au Tim sttlme siurt Sleml _t 0.T dlotmt, bctasiegy td tnitlagl. 06m

Dt0ttU .. .. 00Um BesAt July 5253 Jim ttlt 0. Tim TotaS nsgemt eost E2D2 .1ti55ct fte resarct bia atowel. arrwat eU *c. Ota

mr*t Oewleopmt (bIC. Ptul 400 6 GOS Om"t 0254 Jnu 026 tblind Sclutal* Asslestm .t i Ib t II proteetle of ttte abriete. Obar

ktlwrl. D0s,sot .. .. ctm Garet 11104 t11 OR Te Aqt_tt to u family fititiA t tot uptlbl Met t31 .11110 Protte

ArlmCltbrel a"w. Prof. .. .. (3M Greet J 5 t2 NW. l6 Au Tbt Wnewr mlt tor aepurnt tout ent 1. "Mue. PUR..sblt

tettd AJSe5I I tWetleu It,6et t,$0 WmAD gtrt Sap. t024 Dec. 1i6 Oa Tk. Catuwl lt Rlver a telalag It .6.lw, am forery omul b.tr Projt*relesi

Cuanwet wIts Colutll WU) 1I Al FO greet Feb. 1965 Nr. 116 On Tb. Truieleg. eup.et, frtillar. petblclde tm tS reg5mS at Et3 Ider

Poet4br,e.t leds lto of 0.5. t55 55 FAD reat July 01 Jam 12w Semb Schedle Rductit to pt-Wt toet. mtctbt. otAur

Pftt4br 1e.t Laes UuI tI I R) t4 0 FAD beett W. 06 Vte. 1251 OA Tb. FreSit. a pt_ bleet ttrtiag. ttleg. ebre. bopo utbt t. T A2

Pr.t n tRb.lSbtItmt .. .. 1B great Sp It25 Sep. 1257 0. Tb. Coautructin bupmee, Project Inu trelnbs atet l w eIbt t 6d411 Pmje.ct-atrebd

NW Dstil leWy Eugesel 216 tD' IS'CW ) t reet "Ir. 0255 Aug. 019 O Tl Fllawclug of tb. S u. Project.ntnet O

St. Viset ld. EoLt. F_. Stdy I t92 Wl CtDA reet 0254 tl. low Oa Ttt - trojecJbvlabd

ftl_terft ete 1t .. .. TAJl beet Mt 1184 MId- 0257 Au Thm Tr eleg TA 005w

frtuItS Teg. Prarnoo Plett 204 204 aliUEM greet ON. t1# Nr. 116 oA Tim FPettbility Study Pro ject-etotd

S tmeiat Prutitbe (t) 27 27 WAtID Grnot 11s Doec. 01 au Tim Lales Offier aem York otb

Project e oot ..ls m .R) USAID Oamnt A"g. 024 Sop. 025 Au Tb. Totl rteglom cot *20.60; Private bweimat pruiatl. ProJect-rletd

ST. VI3tlM AND TIIE GREIWI11 0IC.L C151I4N PEUDaSE 196 - I990

LIS7T oF 16ICIL COAW l0l F_R.eS IN Pu1u (1)

cm 1000)

TOT EKOE FWN4 111- al Plkz-FATITLBWtT EOST mo 101111M tXWME anll) SouStuW- sa 4? a

Tbursa (MD

T _tI _cteslmime 243 20 M orat 19S6 mid- 966 On. Tim Trainlag ot bmw plde. ldtlf.tIeon et t1tr t; product I ot 0terTra & Totl lPrmwtle CU .. ESCICWVtTA Grat ekl9 197 On TIM P,wtle .113. In En. et statiEtical p _tn imdlaeft 08O Teol 04 million. OtteT_m Felt. * hUlblitae (U) .. .. Et Great 1S16 t SO17 0ontlehg Perticipetlen In towls tflt. S e0lbittl<e I. 8.1 la d L m1_ Otter

Trewtbtle cm

G.. _bgiTtelaiug Ottfler SPA 37 169 0tAF) Low - - To b cem Ied Pwrt Aubuity. OterI8gl. AlrtEtip Pselbit lty St 20 20D EIaUEC Lm'rerst At. "a JIul. 395 on Tim Tourim studies am agloorlog desgu eu L3ME fil. Prject-nlet.i

commletle.t (CM44

t1 ol.etloe 4*1_w .. .. gCTnt 19 1O67 NIot Tot Initletnd - 0tb6

EY D l_ i IIn K M(1 J J t lOl C rant 11i4 ." 193 on TIM Emrgy alvewr bud to OECS VA). 0at1gm. Ottr_ nt Srnle tIo ILEC . .. C3A snt 39U IO on thm I AdvIrw ai sbrt-tle t mu ta. lU tt3

tetw Sboply O) 4f

leetietlzmil Steogttuing gm 65 6S P**A* Grnat isn. 396 Oe. 3916 On Ts Ome yer oxtsnale etof *a.l Mit e"gmerAege. Otter

"ImIl gamoss amf

Iboga Pleamong Pilot Project .. .. ClO Ornt Mld INS Jiip 3 Bhled Schdu I ceawituot b>ssns s MwOd" 'Me ovItablity. OtL,"1achwalo Engleer WS S2 52 tl Grent Jan. 39 Oct. 1#S am Tim 2 er extelen oectod. Oter"mowga. 20 2i am Grant Feb. 1964 Mar. 1ff On Tim - Otbrluetibtloel Strgtolog 0 * -* -Orat 16 19s5 On Tim ldutrlel D.eloemt Offlcwr A Fe &Vroevot OftlerI .1.0.0 reroq_ted Otb r

W. VIgIW AN nE o TEOtCS. Suax1CM ON PROMIE t1e9 - ItO

LIS OF TICIL d XEPTIU P5"_S 3l P50SS t1)

=TM.L WOMX FPNWAIS ltlCt _ItIIIS PMGT-.AIa TWTI1I.EMT cm 05T OK LAWV* W Tt) S6w1ION 611 ST1114) Om

aeatrtots "WAp t volt 31 w7 tow ast Aug. IS8 o. 26 OblId alhebadl SbagIarlag of Pu, S lrka Dep., clvia ell_trimil a" serl s , 5n. .ot,Pl Of da £te .. .. oIC Grant tSt tStP 0n Tim Short-tam oialmuloat ; Total aisma mt 4340 rm ~ LE fil. Other

_W. w .. .. WO lt Ins ml a II TII 2 m y otIwEngluwal At_slw, No .. UM1D Gret Fob. liStD $o. 1SS7 On Tim 'tw yw extnl. approd. Ot

Iinatlo gad Tralatag (MT)

TrWohl Tmb t Plastkct SbJeto s0 30 on Gat 1o"4 S .. Wle trsnlng, autoblio, a oark. mtl. Ot1MSMIlb Trelats4) W. MI o <Ient so. 1i# Jug. 1#7 on Tti PactIcal jlb-retatsd tralain for tie malyed. himrWant sone 6 ip Schma (it) .. .. am ett Cotlalas Os TIM - Otlr °Adlt Edmtkim Carlasitlb' 30 50 011 leat ti tI labIld SlCbAl. 00eds asoMnt. lllbMst. frolIag SO Is istlletd tle. 1645). Ot1wTrlldntg i rogrqrm (3) . cm Grant ti MD6 On TIm Total rgtomi cost 0031,649 tralslag, _our pluwlng. lnatRltt'l _pport. otwlaR. at b r S_b .. .. a"" gt lie 218 bt yet laStlatad Trelsag tWr t35." Io Coaslr at HNbr Collop. CAs. Ofs,CrIb. t bl Itawr 11. Trag. (U) CM .. alM#P O Graat Dec. 11 1NO. I9ti On Tim Tralsig at Ul,icsai IstilOtih tloo egomel ost ECr . oAtwTatlag Nsaamt A Enaltlos, 550 5SO am least Ie lie Olt Tim FPallouips, tranlag. Ottr

ckIrcal Esghflasg Tralsalg .I *- at On 0. Tim Ul5* St. Agtloo mIst TranIng Pard Pogoums (_). OtblrComE tR) .. .. W1W lreat 1m1 1961 O Tim Totbl reglhl met £162. otIsElectrical Eulmtrlag Tran .*- clA Grnet 1"3 ISSO Os Tim Paw awr trelslag ot MIT Anana m TralIg imrl a Prgram, CR). Other

Early CM1d old Macatlm 65 675 3ItE3 Grast 1# 4 IS On Tim Aml_ prla of $135 for 5 Oatb OtIs,Trlg Is Flaobrlo, .J . AIW. least 1li 1II Is TAi= 5 porc trslasd b In rtselso k fir h tleS ta l lw g_a.b ioogy.Ital_-AMl Trlal .. .. gm ant 0. 1Mt3 Oi Os T_m - otbr o

Soarshipa l TaIrsn .. .. 0C Onat Oct. I3II Oct. 19S7 Is Tim - Otl>r S%Itl LO" I 1,060 1,010 18 Lem, Dec. 116 on. lie6 On Tim 16 Im.laaa otti anTetksi and S1 am Educti lR .. .. CIDA leat Oct. 195 Sop. s1" Is Tm llmelolAt of ticlaIng e les fhr MtC totl imF l met 1tM7,60. Ot3r

dlallylIm Traltslg imd lRt .. .. 11MSS Grat Feb. 19 sop. IOm On Timt 10 awds to dab to otloml do Sof I totoa relgm coet EO.3 Otb4

ST. M M 1) V OIiES TEOII. C0YPTI0u P96Cee 19 6 - 1910

LIST OF T0MICOL MP IATICII PS6F lfSI P9648 (1)

MeC '600)

1OTM. _ L W.. FlS~S 19353161 XeSf3t

TIILEIVUSJ3 Gm6 ADMT am39 kD MIT simial =wLETIUW srMI4) a

Tuitim.aeta. ktrtin _ T StT2 uf£lll) S

bO~kkt wai , wrs itkat mm

Chief IOI O ttff lo 56 5 356 TC Grnt At. 1961 Avg. 19N an Tim - OUw

F-ty Pt_I 2 2.337 USAIO Ireat Ott. 1114 Am t1 On TI. ToolnIn. fItbetlm of mturtait A twhibleb l mistc. Other

Ppati sad _ ei _ CR) _ .. tAI Great Jly 1692 On.. 1916 Oln Tizs Trailing. contraeiptle neply, epglnt I youth outrac prcgri. Ot e

Jolit 3ttitloe 8at Pru. a16 716 1CEF Stut 1364 13 co The - otW

Peuatlee Policy T_k P.t) .c.l54 Grant avg. 139 *mg. t136 behid Schtedle Auiewy Sarlaet. ott

"bull of Eatgt t Neetat Plan .. _ EEt StGant Omc. 1t9s Jun i on Tim Ph"* II. Pvoject..rletd

SOlbtrkt i*Du 4l Ibeit .. - E MW Grtat Wa. 1#64 Feb. 1m an TIM 2 ina-yumrs. Ottow

o0t6t5. .. fRVS Grant Oct. 19#6 Se. 1IS7 On Tk.. 2 m_ye Othw

Sesp. FeOCO of Veaesubl. Greep 647 4,51 W rnt Fe. 1"4 "W. 156 On Tim Ibtt. 4ad Children. caw

Nationaln I.hly Pirn Pregind l,S 1,3 1WA rent v16 Da". 139 OaITim inIcludes,tttreblne lv blly ee practItlansa (t). orw

Peltlan Edeimtous for Po t 130 1s a Get sep. 1964 Aug. ism tOn tl To estl lish Natiel Pownt Eomt tl. Prugem. Othw

F_tly Life Vdece*tlemPy Plmbn 6so S2 IWA ornt Apr. IY6S M". It on T_m Public Au e, rAdW. t tIan hI teemge prepMea. unnail lag, PV. edctla.. Otter

PMo T4eW4l Ceoyarati Pr .. .. P0 Great Ceatitmlag On Tim DevuIet of ueIth so"laesi tmte. WPIY aitation 1 966-6 £0113.5 Ottr

So lU eb Ol i *- * PN D Soat Jan. 135 DON. Om5 On TiM Etipmst. dt-tm ctaiittn 1y and trailng In 14 fill loalmlq.. Pboject-reletse

l"oue & _muIty ISrIce am00

taepated itnf. _sim DeIwpumt e3 62 OA$ sruit 1O9 MW. Iff On Tim Litrarlee md rchive. Pr lbd ID

"mihlaeli amp

3961.1 sanity 110 IOt IMp oet Jm. 1964 Ju19y 93 On Tlm Soebal Secrity Sysbe peped by 11. to 1S4. Othtr

a_. PImiC ESm

Aumliatra & Pltm_1g (360

Ea_40t 930 .. .. MD Gut Oct. 136 SeP. la?S On Time I_epete Plaerie Offlar. otht

Tex b*iolotttlue EipWt 20 210 CFTC OroAt MAw. 1964 feb. 1367 On TIM - Otter

ST. YUIEIT AIs TlE f IIES TlU L n.W TUN PMSE SW - 19s0

LIST Of TE4IC.L ICWAII PMOtffS IN PIE (1)

WASIFIMNTI

10T&L EXIDI*L filSlCIw DaTlziam CONDE E"CT VTL iUw5l muST AIT S LDNE LOa Ti STrMT2) ftETICOS STA ) aImER

Seleboac Dsankpat Ploaob 4,717 3A4 uw argot Ir. 1973 Dec. 1949 leind Sctafe ProeJct prp atialkoplimntatl" Ibtloatl DOmniiatt Plan. OUtrS yw btI11 Dn tkPmt .. .. I VW/WI/ 9nnt 5t 1 19S kna.la oOb TTim Soettr plan to twoti. agrical t, adstry ad tranqertattl. 0t*wNtbecator be.Ipat 52 412 (W Grant Jan 9 AM "a7 OR Tln Directort of Pmm mad PlIag Ednaticl Adriasr otherCOON etotlr .. .. TRISMI Grant Je. 1158 Ja 89S7 .. aeatet peat. @trWC IA D ao .. W Great Dac. 194 Dec. 196 On Tim Total ragmlal spat ECII ndvim- aaldstr.tlen. o01r

Padlek soty tRD

Cmatgand (epal tty) .. .. trant .. O n Tim Tht eftlewa tnahuag C _not. 0Ia I

s) w eWr maitlen.tD Dea of appt I.at of lIatId dlbeait.(3 Date of tmaiWatltn or talanl <i ewI mt ala.£4) Net pet laltl~tUAb* T tInAd St llatn s t

00.. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.

S_e*st __erut of St. Ytot an tie tl_di, UtOP, 1X1.

Dtaw of )*W/I tfild donam D _caa 1Stl.

Ldatst rmielm 23 Apr1 tStl

- 23 -

Pap I of 4

ST. VIINT As li w4AOIi($

S£CTW PQLIC WLOGILE U RRIX

(Key pi lcy actions retqird are usriod by an asterisk)

POLIO AWA OEV.W4T IS9E PolCtIiNSTImuiI. ADITIML P.UCY/ Coi SR TQ WaE IHBTlIUTION.L UFR REIIUED

MAWAM041 ISMt

1. Central Osrwut SvIng WhilIe ti Central oermn nt 1. E_dltuf reductIon 1. Inpvmot In aastn Govtniut'* going proam

In recnt years lu inroved tUNu llinitlon of valuation qty ad Is long the Ise.

Its wplue, tirs Is rm webs. upgading of nalpaw.for InWovmnt. 2. irproed revenue 2. Reogalnation of the

cIlection, spelaiy rest of td mlnistries and

arratr. 4overamnt dpertments with

3. Reorganizatlon ai a view to *I bloating %ets

lnstitutionel etngtlnng aiN I lig _pItndw

of Minlsty of Plns- an mntrol.Cuetsa and Inlad Revnu 3. Cupse collection of

osr?nte. rev_u arrer.

2. Pubic lEtwprItes Sng In tie poet, the flnse of 1. SIL lm closed In I. eoIgenla public 1. Govement lee esbbhilhed

to public enterprisese hew mid-I. entepril In am aYs the Planing and Prioities

ben week espcally ths 2. bItr dt es Increased don for Central oversemnt, Cnttee, whose functions

d the AIA, CAL and SIL. he reduce A deficit. with a w to *hlendnintlug Include trouble-ehoetng

3. Attopta to etd tetts. with tspect h the pubIlc

useld stoc of e rroroot. 2. Esteblilsh uidi Ins, for seoto.

lnialzaig the ngtive 2. Areroot iu1e rtqulire

effect of a11 cilng urgent decsion to seas da

enteprits (e.9., AIA). operatil.

3. laetent lnvet t has been very Proposed Goenrunt pi ley 1. Fewitleion et specifc Oenrvant requesting

sluggish In cant tyr, measures include policies h LIpint t cleicel tsletee lo

swcially private sectr 1. Estidstnnt of proposels In recent budgt prepr, hplnt mad

invebunt. Institutioal rrngente speech moniter te PSIP, given

fw providing TA, Inet- 2. Vurther i trovents In crnt skilled steff

ant cowmiling and the formlation and htg In tbe plic

extaslen erviesse te lcal Iplemntetien of th PSIP setor.

private Inwtetrs. within the propoed2. Use of ticl and otbt dewlopat plan fravtt wk.

Inentives the erapjoint vntures In tieprivate sto.

- 24 -

m kiPaoe 2 of 4

Sr. VIO4M A nM E QIAIES

SE>CTDD P0.ICt 31i.QE IAATRIJ

fsZy policy actions required are awked by 8n astetisk)

P.iQ mu OEL ISSE PLICWAK1MuiPft AWOWIO .1 Po 0.1 sROOM TO PamT "iIm. swoS wala

4. vplopynt Ul.aplormnt lovel Is 1,. Protlon of labor- 1. Wnprovnts In data buc Reire extenal assistance

currently ver high, Intenasve Industries. on 1opiomnt. In Identifying nd

caiiM4d with high 2. Estabilshnt of a 2. Establahnt of formilating spcific program

population grwth am a cysten of mnpmr uplo)mnt creaton with respect to Onployont

ybjg population. The piaMing-e.g. the skills prograa, pretfrably with cratlon.

proble ic esentlally trallnng progru A local and foreign private

structural an thus requires menp&r urvey Is participation.long-tefm solution. propose. 3. Restrain public sector

a Increa.

*. LREAJJ, ifWESM &

F114Es

1. Olvereifictlon Aricultural productlon Is t. Govermennt proposals II. On thi Introduction of Tcluical assstance Is

aars, bae on ground relate b toh Introduction nrw crops, establish reqird to _pot

provielons and vegtiles, of Nw crop for export and oxperliuntal fas progrens idntificatlon of projects In

b&anaasrooto lport substitution, e.g. 2. With respect to livestcmk this area.

eogetse, and coanuts. rice and winter vgetables. n fislherles, devlop tax

Further expanson In 2. Fishres project with Incatives to proat

vgptable, fruit prodction, CipA's teheical asistance privte sector Invstunt.

livestock and fisriescn Is under pleettion.

help reduce worts nW

aply the nees of th

torlen setor, as wel as

prlde for reglonl and

extra-reglonal expots.

L. 4rksting Tthre cam tosnts of the 1I,. Govermunt is roorganl- * Attanpt to coordinate with Oovermnnt has estabilshd a

artketing problen cn be zing the Mrketing Corpora- other regional overmnts quality control comnitte.

Identifild - m kst tion. for the developunt of Reglonal aproach to the

Infation, storage, and 2. Efforts to orgaize and nw4 et Intellgc ad wurhting of winter

packaging nd procesing, support tin oativities of shipping. vgtable Is under

Solutions to tian are te traffidwe is discuson

wrtat for th protlon undrway.

of untraditional 3. Inplantetion of USMaiO

agriculture. FltA1W prora on whet

intelligece, Inqpovuante

In shipping end rerhousing

and storage facilities.

- 25 -

ST. Vi"off m iw 1 BWIWA Pap 3.f 4

mEzcr POLICY 0IOGIE JlRIX

(Key pslky atio reOured afe Ued by an 411ariuld)

POlCt AA OEVI" 'UE PSLICWtIStIMIWo AOITIOCL PO.LIGV/ a ll6

IFI TO AMU INSTIlUTClWL WRER Ein i.

3. LOd Rteform Tm pattern of blarAldinrp 1. Oamt km apcqird * 1. Speedily &*$Vn TA DOvet stnrt

y farm an reela a high to Orage Hill Estate and pfogran, to be eup fred by oalatot with ppel.degre of fra ation. plan tleb ivide It lto MC NW other etenlDeual,ip lms else b viable (C-5 ae) haldlnge. dor, re land retefaffectcd lau dehl_t a 2. _ovmA Intends t9 2. De,eo etive fala nraslip Is aed a provide infrtruetore, prtb edit frm privatecolltrl ft r cedit. credit aid exteason OrlAl bk*$ te VD

srvlsa aricultur mtor for lad

bqaromt.

B. i OUIRT

. Idutal Estate in recent ycra, te dod Governmet bh eoatrstod * 1,ntel rtes Iuld la

for ftoy spes he be on tbe dveoput of tb. revisld te dtmine theirhiher 1te tbe avalable Of ldtrial Esbet awproroltmos.= ply. WIth and U5AID 2. ContInue to _arage

sestae. privat seto pticipation

In factory delIdeovlopmt.

2. Credit c.mrol be credit ha 1. eerinat plan t Th propod nstcturing oceranmnt gy r Irgm minly late consmr 1qev tOe tntlcelng of of EWMO id be ugnly te.h *tiel & fnaIlactivitIes a imwrisk the ODel_ t Copratlon ,el_ntd. usit to ftmlete arAar_se, ain rthe t f (CVO) en thlt It an lunt prosls.rete on afatcrig a effectIvly aport leaingrelatively lur at ths toe the pro tive mctors.Initial stops. 2. Sovermat itends fo

enowe loasl umro a 1l

bonas to nel lon tote prodtive sctors.

3. Fleal lmntiv It Is debtfUl weter th 1. Govomont Inted to 1. 1o" mitoIng of ecee o current managerialpeant Wasatlve qatam Is nevlis It to trm of flal inmotive ayst. lmer anstra_nts In go

achelving U desird parfeuem b_. throug as atlin of public otor, ptr_l myresit.. 2. Prpwoan aIebnt ettr dote bs. at roelve serios

ade 2. IcentIve ecl. sh_ uld censlideraton until labr.3. beview later and ecal be aob ou"t-owlcntod furtlawr, fistel inetivacrity legIsatIon. lsatd of nput-orient leislation Is h elnd

withIn V. rglen, Urn

pos,in emstraint te ce_g.

- 26 -

Pae 4 of 4ST. VIll Iif M Tic EWIEWS

SUELCI PLICdY DIALIE lATRIX

(Key polIcy actio required we narkad by n aetrlsk)

PUL.ci Ar IEV5.W ISlE PtICToiNsTmIrl AIL TOTi PCi LIt CYiCYoM

lMt TO DAlE INSfiIUTIGWtl. mm RUlD

C. l1U19iS

It LowOccupancy Rates The rate of Inreae In 1. Preetige In Ielected 1. Joint preotloras efforts Efforts ate Morny far

twulst ariwals Is blew nwkett aled at tib with othr regional towis Joint pnrntion withttet of tbe regoln. reearsdi. centes aiuld be purued. St. Lucia, but because of

Services at lotels, 2. Oewemt of turiw 2. Training of lmigretlon cietition It Is not likely

especiaily In St. Vincnt, rblated Infrastructure In and costo. officials. a reglonl pproeh tear not Internetlonaily the ordlnes e.g. 3. Promotlon of coepetitlon preretn will be devloped.

coq,titive (both In price airstrip In 0equIal In tb betel actor. Translt facilities throb

an quilty). Cowan Barbados entine to be a3. Improement In Sir problem

esnuication lklas withSt. Lucia.4. RedactIon of high at

fee.

2. Pleaing Deeopit of tde Indwty Minnltry of teurnl Is 1. OevIse a lartem plan overnment te cI n.tact a

to t he bn It reviewling a shady of fwr th truim sctor that separate iniinu emlysis of

haphazard, minly becus of eatiting torwis cwaity wil Includ the the tbun plan In the nor

lb lad of cmnsltey In and potential. atfabi llat of betel and futuo.

policy foe iatlon. restarnt stabnrds.2. $SPe kl btlain eof

tas r_omeatbn toingo from the rView.

LOW SCENARIO

- 27 -

ANNEX IIIPage I of 10

ST. VINCENT AND THE BRENADINESt ECONONIC PROJECTIONS

~~~~~~~~~~_.._...... . ._ .... . _.......^

Actual PROJECTED

1985 1986 1987 1968 1999 19 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

NATIONAL ACCOUNTSs

(EC$ million)

SOP (factor cost)

Agriculture 44.1 45.2 46.3 47.5 48.7 49.9 51.1 52.4 53.7 55.1 56.5Nanufacturing 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.9Construction 25.6 26.9 28.0 29.4 28.9 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.6 32.1SrYvicus 139.0 143.1 147.4 150.6 153.9 157.2 160.6 164.1 167.7 171.3 175.1

GOP TOTAL 228.3 235.1 242.1 247.3 252.7 258.2 263.8 269.5 275.4 281.4 287.5GDP 9rovth IZ) 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2SOP Deflator (1985 xlOO) 100.0 103.0 106.1 109.3 113.6 120.5 127.7 135.4 143.5 152.1 161.2GDP NONINAL 274.2 290.8 308.4 324.6 344.9 373.5 404.5 438.1 474.5 514.0 556.7

SOP (urket prices) 274.2 282.3 290.7 297.0 303.5 310.1 316.9 323.7 330.8 330.0 345.3TOT Adjustment 0.0 6.4 7.3 8.9 9.1 11.1 9.1 6.6 3.8 0.6 -3.1SDY 274.2 280.7 298.0 306.0 312.5 321.2 325.9 330.4 334.6 339.5 342.2Exports, 6NFS 213.3 220.6 228.0 235.7 243.6 252.5 261.7 271.3 281.4 291.8 302.8Capacity to laport 213.3 227.0 235.3 244.6 252.7 263.6 270.8 278.0 285.2 292.4 299.7Imports, MOF 256.9 271.7 279.9 283.1 280.0 282.2 284.4 208.3 292.2 296.3 302.2Total Expenditure 317.7 333.3 341.6 344.5 339.9 339.8 339.5 340.6 341.6 342.4 344.8Total Investmont 83.1 93.2 93.0 92.1 91.0 86.8 82.4 80.9 79.4 77.7 79.4Investment fixed 75.8 93.2 93.0 92.1 91.0 96.8 82.4 80.9 79.4 77.7 79.4Public 27.1 39.5 37.9 35.6 .36.4 34.1 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.8 34.5Private 48.7 53.6 55.2 56.4 54.6 52.7 50.7 48.6 46.3 43.9 44.9

Change in Invent. 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Consumption 234.6 240.2 248.5 252.4 248.8 253.0 257.1 259.7 262.2 264.6 265.3Public 59.6 60.7 61.7 62.5 63.4 64.2 65.0 65.9 66.7 67.6 68.5Private 175.0 179.5 186.8 189.9 185.4 198.8 192.1 193.8 195.5 197.0 196.9

Doestic Savings 39.6 42.1 42.2 44.6 54.7 57.1 59.7 64.0 68.5 73.3 80.0Factor Service Income -4.1 -5.5 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -4.9 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8Transfers 24.8 25.6 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.7 29.3 30.0 30.6 31.3National Savings 60.4 62.2 63.2 66.4 77.0 80.3 93.8 88.7 93.8 99.2 106.5SlP 270.2 276.8 285.4 291.9 298.3 305.2 312.2 319.1 326.1 333.3 340.5

LOW SCENARIO

- 28 -ANNEX IIIPage 2 of 10

ST. VINCENT AND TNE HRE 1MDINESs EC010IC PMJECTINS

Actual PR0JECtED

1985 1986 1987 1998 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

BALANCE OF PAYNENTSs

IUSS aillion)

Merchandise Exports (constant 1985 prices)

IbaanasVolue 40.8 42.5 44.2 46.0 47.9 49.9 51.9 54.1 56.3 58.6 61.0Value 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.4

FlourVoluse 38.2 39.7 41.3 43.0 44.7 46.5 48.3 50.3 52.3 54.4 56.5Value 7.2 7.5 7.8 9.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6

Othcr Aqricultura 19.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.0Other 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.8

Total Merchandis Exports 63.7 65.7 67.6 69.6 71.6 73.8 76.0 78.3 80.7 83.2 85.7Non Factor Services 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.4Total Exports, 9NFS 79.0 91.7 84.4 87.3 90.2 93.5 96.9 100.5 104.2 108.1 112.1

Export Price Indices (1985 100)

hnanas 100.0 104.7 109.4 114.1 118.7 122.6 127.9 133.2 138.6 143.9 149.4Flour 100.0 115.8 131.6 147.4 163.2 177.8 109.8 201.8 213.8 225.8 237.7Other Agriculture 100.0 112.9 125.8 138.7 151.6 183.9 199.4 212.9 227.4 241.9 256.3Other 100.0 109.0 119.9 129.5 139.2 147.6 156.4 165.8 175.9 196.3 197.5

Total Kerchandise Exports 100.0 109.9 119.7 130.0 139.9 t54.6 164.3 174.2 184.2 194.4 204.7Non Factor Services 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.1 145.7 151.6 157.6 163.9 170.5Total Exports, OhFS 100.0 109.3 119.7 128.4 138.0 151.5 160.3 169.2 178.2 187.4 196.6

Morchndis Exports (current price)

Bananas 16.9 18.5 20.1 21.8 23.7 25.4 27.6 30.0 32.4 35.1 37.9Flour 7.2 9.6 10.2 11.9 13.7 15.5 17.2 19.1 21.0 23.1 25.3Other Agriculture 18.7 21.7 24.8 29.0 31.3 39.0 43.1 47.4 51.9 56.6 61.4Oter 20.9 23.2 25.8 28.7 31.5 34.1 37.0 40.0 43.4 47.0 50.9

Total Merchandin Exports 63.7 72.1 80.9 90.4 100.2 114.1 124.9 136.5 148.7 161.7 175.5No Factor Srvices 15.3 17.2 19.3 21.7 24.3 27.6 30.5 33.6 37.0 40.8 45.0Total Exports, 6IFS 79.0 89.3 100.2 112.1 124.5 141.7 155.4 170.0 185.7 202.5 220.5

LOW SCENARIO

- 29 -,ANNEX IIIPage 3 of 10

ST. VINCENT AND THE 8RENAOINESI ECONOIIC PROJECTIONS

_ .. ..... .... _ ........ _*................. ... .. . ._ ............. . . .. _........ . ...... _.........

kAtual P R O J E C T E 6.... ......... . . _..._.. ._ .. _........ _.... . ... .. .. .... . ... ... ........ . ..... _,.

1995 1986 1981 1989 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 I994 1995.... .... - .. ... - -- -. -.. ---- -. -------- -.. ------------------ - --- -. -------- - .------. - -. - --

SALANCE OF PAYMENTS:

fuSs million)

MIerhandiste Imports (constant 1985 prices)

Food 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.2Consumer Nanufactures 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.3 29.9 30.3 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.8Fuels 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6Chesicals/Fertilizers 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9Raw Materials 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3Capital Goods 16.7 20.3 21.0 21.0 18.2 17.4 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.5 15.9

Total Merchandise lports 85.5 90.6 92.9 94.1 92.5 92.8 93.2 94.1 95.1 96.1 97.7Non Factor Sevices 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2

Total Imports, 6NFS 95.1 100.6 103.3 104.9 103.7 104.5 105.3 106.8 100.2 109.7 111.9

Import Price Indlces 41985 * 100)

Food 100.0 1.14.2 128.4 142.6 156.9 181.0 195.0 209.0 223.0 237.0 251.2Consumr Manufactures 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Fuels 100.0 71.9 79.1 80.3 81.5 82.8 91.9 102.1 113.5 126.1 140.1Choeicals/Fertilizers 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Raw Materials 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Capital Goods 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3

Total lerchandius tIports 100.0 106.1 115.1 123.9 133.4 145.8 155.8 166.2 177.1 188.4 200.3Non Factor Sevices 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 197.3

Total Iports, 8NfS 100.0 106.2 115.0 123.7 133.1 145.1 154.9 165.2 175.8 187.0 198.7

Mrchandise lmports (current prics)

Food 22.0 25.7 29.5 33.3 37.2 43.7 47.8 52.1 56.5 61.0 65.7Consur Manufactures 27.6 30.2 33.0 35.8 39.0 42.4 45.7 49.2 53.0 57.1 61.5Fuels 7.2 5.3 6.b 6.1 6.3 6.5 7.4 8.3 9.4 10.6 12.0Chmicals/Fertilizers 9.2 10.1 11.0 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.5Raw Iaterials 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2Capital 6oods 16.7 21.8 24.0 25.7 23.8 24.3 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.5 29.8Total Merchandise 85.5 96.1 106.9 116.6 123.3 135.3 145.2 156.5 168.4 191.0 195.7Non Factor Services 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.2 - 14.7 16.4 18.0 19.9 21.9 24.1 26.6

101AL 95.1 106.8 118.8 129.8 138.0 151.7 163.2 176.3 190.3 205.2 222.3

.. . ..... _ ...n.._ ._.........._

LOW SCENRIO

- 30 -

ANINEX ItTPage 4 of 10

ST. VINC£NT AND THE GRENADINESs EC0NOAIC PROJECTIONS

Actual P R O J E C T E D..... ..... ... .... .w. ...... . ......................... . . .. ... ,. _..... . ..... s.... .... .

1985 1986 1997 1968 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

BALANCE OF PAYMENTSt

(US$ Sillion)

Exports, 6NFS 79.0 89.3 100.2 112.1 124.5 141.7 155.4 170.0 185,7 02. 5 220.5Imports, ONFS 95.1 106.9 119.8 129.8 139.0 151.7 163.2 176.3 190.3 205.2 222.3Resource Balance -16.1 -17.6 -18.5 -17.7 -13.5 -10.0 -7.0 -6.3 -4.6 -2.7 -1.9

FSY (net) -1.5 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2. -2.5 -2.6 -2.9Interest/Public Dbt -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -l.F -1.9 -2.1 -2.3Other -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -4.S -0.5 u. 5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6

Transfers 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.5 ;'.6 14.7 15.9 1.2 18.7

Current Account Balance -9.4 -9.9 '-10.3 -8.9 -4.1 0.3 3.6 6.1 8.9 11,9 Il,O

Net Public Capital 11.5 14.9 18.5 14.9 11.1 13.0 14,1 14,8 16.7 16.' 18.5Orants 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.0 l.t 1.2Loan Disbursements 9.3 9.2 11.7 7.7 3.6 6.4 8.4 9.9 12.0 12.t. .4.9Ainrtization -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4

Private Capital (net) 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9

Overall Balance 4.7 6.6 10.0 7.9 9.1 15.4 19.9 25.3 29.1 31.3 35.3

Nemorandus Itess

Current Acc't. Balance/GOP -9.3 -9.2 -9.0 -7.4 -3.2 0.2 2.4 3.9 5.0 6.3 6.8Debt Service Ratio IX) 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 .. 2.5 2.3 2.1(as Z of Exports,6NfSI

LOW SCENARIO-31-

ANNEX IIIPage 5 of 10

ST. YINCENT AND THE 6RENAAINES: ECOhMIC PROJECTIONS….--.. . _ ..... ... ...

... .... .. .. .^. .. ... Xt,........... .... ., ,,.... ..... ..... ......... ... . ...... ,._o.......... . .................. _. .... .............. .

ctual P R O J E C T E D.... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. __.......................... .w. __._ ._._......_

1985 1986 1967 I98 1969 19" 199l 1992 I193 1994 1995

Public Sector Operationst

(EC$e illion)

Central Government

Current Revenue 87.1 92.2 97.9 99.3 105.5 114.2 123.7 134.0 145.1 157.2 170.2Taxes 76.9 81.4 96.4 07.6 93.1 100.9 109.2 18.3 128.1 139.8 150.3Non Taxes 10.2 10.8 11.5 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7 17.0 18.4 19.9

Current Expenditure 73.9 77.5 81.2 84.7 89.3 95.9 103.0 110.6 118.7 127.5 136.9agnes and Salaries 36.8 38.6 40.4 42.2 44.5 47.7 51.3 55.1 59.1 63.5 69.2

Boods and Services 22.8 23.9 25.1 21.1 27.5 29.6 31.8 34.1 36.6 39.3 42.2Other 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.6 19.9 21.4 23.0 24.7 26.5

Central overnunt Savings 13.2 14.8 16.6 14.5 16.2 19.4 20.8 23.4 26.4 29.7 33.3

Public Sector Accounts

Public Sector Savings 19.0 20.0 22.5 19.9 22.1 25.0 28.2 31.7 35.7 40.0 44.9S 1n'I overneent Savings 16.8 18.8 21.1 19.5 20.6 23.4 26.4 29.8 33.6 37.9 42.4Parastatal Savings 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4

Capital Expenditures 38.1 43.9 57.0 38.9 41.4 41.1 40.5 43.8 47.5 51.4 55.7

Overall Df icit -20.i -23.9 -34.5 -19.1 -19.3 -16.1 -12.3 -12.1 -11.8 -11.4 -10.8

Financing 20.1 23.9 34.5 19.1 19.3 16.1 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.4 10.8

External Financing (not) 28.9 40.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 35.0 38.0 40.0 45.0 45.0 50.0Dosetic Financing (net) -8.8 -16.1 -15.5 -20.9 -10.7 -18.9 -25.7 -27.9 -33.2 -33.6 -39.2

mrandun Itees:

Dbt Service/CS Rvene 9.9 11.3 10.8 10.8 11.0 10.3 9.3 8.6 8.6 7.9 7.4Ratios to IPsPublic Sector Savings 6.6 6.9 7.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1.Central 6wt. Svings 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.5 4..? 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0Parastatal Svings 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Bmneral Govt. Svings 6.1 6.5 6.9 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.6Central GMvt. Revnu 31.0 31.7 31.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30,6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6Tag Rveu 29.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0Consumption 85.6 85.1 85.5 85.0 92.0 81.6 81.l 00.2 79.3 79.3 76.8oetic Savings 14.4 14.9 14.5 15.0 19.0 19.4 18.9 19.6 20.7 21.7 23.2Resource Gp -15.9 -16.3 -16.2 -14.7 -10.5 -7.2 -t.2 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 -0.9Investnt 30.3 33.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 28.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 23.0Vational Savings 22.0 22.0 21.7 22.3 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.4 28.4 29.4 23.0

Source: fission stisatn.

- 32 - HIGH SCENARIO-32-

ANNEX IIIPage 6 of 10

ST. VIIEET AND THE INIESt ECONONIC POECTISIS

Actul PAOJECTED

1955 1916 1987 19B8 1999 19 I 11 1m 19MS 1M 1995

NATIONAL ACC TS:

(ECS million)

6DP factor cost)

Agriculture 44.1 46.3 48.6 51.1 53.6 56.3 59.1 62.1 65.2 68.4 71.2anufacturing 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.9 29.0

ConstrKctima 25.6 27.9 30.4 31.2 32.3 33.4 34.6 35.8 37.0 38.3 39.7service 139.0 147.2 156.0 162.3 169.4 176.7 184.4 192.4 200.8 209.6 217.6

SP TOTAL 228.3 241.8 256.3 266.6 279.2 290.2 302.9 316.0 329.8 344.2 357.5SpP Creth (2) 3.1 5.9 6.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.9SWP eftlatr (1995 100) 100.0 103.0 106.1 109.3 113.6 t20.5 127.7 135.4 143.5 152.1 161.2SBP OIINL 274.2 299.2 326.5 349.9 379.7 40.9 464.5 513.8 568.3 628.7 692.1

OP (urht price) 274.2 290.5 307.8 320.2 334.1 348.6 363.7 379.6 396.1 413.4 429.3TOT Adjutment 0.0 5.5 6.4 8.1 8.4 11.1 9.8 8.1 6.1 3.7 0.560? 274.2 295.9 314.2 321.3 342.5 359.7 373.6 357.7 402.2 417.1 429.9Eaparts, SFs 213.3 223.0 233.0 243.3 254.2 266.3 279.0 292.3 306.3 320.9 335.5Capacity to lIpart 213.3 228.S 239.4 251.4 262.6 277.4 28.8 300.4 312.4 324.6 336.0tIparts, WSF 256.8 270.2 281.6 299.3 2.2 306.0 319.6 331.6 344.1 357.0 369.0Total Eapuditure 317.7 337.6 356.4 36.2 378.1 390.3 404.3 418.9 433.9 449.5 462.9Total Itvtoamt 83.t1 9.4 106.5 106.8 106.0 108.1 112.8 117.7 122.8 128.2 133.1lnestfn Fixed 75.8 99.4 106.5 106.8 106.0 108.1 112.8 117.7 122.8 120.2 133.1

Public 27.1 44.2 48.0 45.9 42.5 41.8 43.6 45.5 47.5 49.6 51.5Private 48.7 55.2 58.5 60.8 63.5 66.2 69.1 72.1 75.3 78.5 81.6

Chap in tnvnt. 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Consumptin 234.6 238.1 250.0 259.4 272.1 282.3 291.6 301.2 311.1 321.3 329.8

Public 59.6 61.7 63.9 65.5 67.2 6U.9 70.7 72.6 74.5 76.4 78.2Private 175.0 176.4 186.1 193.9 205.0 213.3 220.8 228.6 236.6 244.9 251.6

Dometic avin" 39.6 52.3 57.8 60.8 61.9 66.3 72.2 78.4 85.0 92.0 99.6Factw Svc Incal -4.1 -6.1 .6.6 -6.4 -6.1 -6.1 -6.3 -6.6 -6.9 -7.2 -7.5Trafrs 24.1 26.3 21.9 29.0 30.3 31.6 33.0 34.4 35.9 37.5 38.9Nationl Sai" 60.4 72.5 79.1 83.4 8.1 91.8 98.8 106.2 114.0 122.3 131.0w 270.2 284.4 301.2 313.8 328.0 342.5 357.4 m.0 389.2 406.2 421.9

HIGH SCENARIO- 33 -

ANNEX IIIPage 7 of 10

ST. VINCENT AND THE 8REMINES; ECEINIC PROJECTIONS

Actual PROJECTE0

1t95 196 1987 1908 198 9 1991 1992 13 14 1995

BALANCE OF PAVNENTSt

WUS gillisn)

Nerchaoie Exports (custant IM8 price)

V.l. 40.8 42.5 44.2 46.0 41.9 4.9 51.9 54.1 56.3 58.6 61.0Value 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.4

.FloorVol. 30.2 39.7 41.3 43.0 44.7 46.5 48.3 50.3 52.3 54.4 56.5Value 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.4 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6

othe Agricultur 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.7 29.1 30.2Other 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.6 27.8 29.0 30.3 31.7Total N.rchaidiu Ejports 63.7 66.5 69.4 72.4 75.5 78.9 82.4 86.1 90.0 94.0 97.9

' Factor Srvicu 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.4Total Expwrts, INFS 79.0 82.6 86.3 90.1 94.1 98.6 103.3 108.3 113.4 118.9 124.3

xpowt Pice lodicu (1995 108)

hunms 100.0 104.7 109.4 114.1 118.7 122.6 127.9 133.2 138.6 143.9 14.4Floor 100.0 115.8 131.6 147.4 163.2 177.8 189.8 201.8 213.8 225.8 237.7twer Agriculture 100.0 112.9 125.8 138.7 151.6 183.9 198.4 212.9 227.4 241.9 256.3

Other 100.0 109.0 119.8 129.5 139.2 147.6 156.4 165.8 175.8 186.3 197.5TotalJ Nrchndise Exports 100.0 109.9 119.8 130.2 140.2 155.4 165.4 175.7 186.1 196.8 207.5No FKtor Servic. 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.1 145.7 151.6 157.6 163.9 170.5Total Exports, INfW 100.0 109.3 118.8 128.6 130.4 152.3 161.4 170.7 180.2 189.9 199.7

Nercbandiue Expot, (current pricn)

IMAMs 16.9 18.5 20.1 21.R 23.7 25.4 27.6 30.0 32.4 35.1 37.9nour 7.2 8.6 ' 10.2 11.9 13.7 15.5 17.2 19.1 21.0 23.1 25.3Othr Agricture 18. 22.2 26.0 30.1 34.5 44.0 49.8 56.1 62.9 70.3 77.4Oter 20.9 23.7 26.9 30.4 34.0 37.7 41.7 46.1 51.0 56.5 62.5

Total r.rchadis Export. 63.7 73.0 83.2 94.3 105.9 122.6 136.4 151.3 167.4 184.9 203.1Nn Factor Srvice 15.3 17.2 19.3 21.7 24.3 27.6 30.5 33.6 37.0 40.8 45.0Total xpo ,s WS 79.0 90.3 102.5 115.9 130.3 150.2 166.8 184.8 204.4 225.7 248.1

HIGH SCENARIO

- 34 -

ANNEX IIIPage 8 of 10

ST. VINCENT ANO THE GRENADINESs ECOMONIC PROJECTIONS

Actual PROJECTED

1985 1966 1987 1988 1989 19 1 1992 193 1994 1995

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:

(US$ cillion)

werchandisu loports (constant 1985 price)

Food 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.7 25.5 24.4 27.2 28.1 29.0 30.0 30.9Cmonsuer Nanufactures 27.6 28.8 30.1 31.0 32.0 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.4 37.6 38.7Fuels 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1Ch nicals/Fertilizers 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9Rae Naterials 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9Capital oods 16.7 20.3 21.0 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.6Total Nerchandis ltoports 85.5 92.2 96.1 98.3 101.1 104.1 107.7 111.5 115.4 119.4 123.1Non Factor Sevices 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2Total Imports, GNFS 95.1 102.1 106.5 109.1 112.3 115.8 119.9 124.1 128.5 133.1 137.3

Inport Price Indices 11985 3 100)

Food 100.0 114.2 128.4 142.6 156.8 181.0 195.0 209.0 223.0 237.0 251.2Couweer Nnufactures 10.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Fuels 100.0 71.9 79.1 80.3 81.5 82.8 91.9 102.1 113.5 126.1 140.1Chnicals/Fertilizers 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Raw Naterials 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Capital Good 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Total Norchandise lports 100.0 106.1 115.1 123.9 133.3 145.6 155.5 165.8 176.5 187.7. 199.5Non Factor Sevices 100.0 107.2 114.5 122.3 130.8 140.0 148.4 157.3 166.7 176.7 187.3Total Iports, GNFS 100.0 106.2 115.0 123.8 133.1 145.1 154.8 164.9 175.5 186.6 198.2

hredindise Imports (current price

Fod 22.0 26.2 30.8 35.3 40.0 47.7 53.1 58.8 64.8 71.1 77.5Conmumr Nmufacturen 27.6 30.9 34.5 37.9 41.9 46.3 50.7 55.5 60.7 66.5 72.5Fuels 7.2 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.1 8.2 9.4 10.8 12.4 14.1Oiemdcals/Fwrtiliturs 9.2 10.3 11.5 12.6 14.0 15.4 16.9 18.5 20.2 22.2 24.2RB aterials 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.4Capital GBodS 16.7 21.8 24.0 25.7 27.7 30.3 33.5 37.0 40.9 45.3 49.9Total Ihrchandise 85.5 97.8 110.6 121.9 134.7 151.6 167.5 184.8 203.6 224.1 245.6Nuo Factor Services 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.2 14.7 16.4 18.0 19.9 21.9 24.1 26.6TOTAL 95.1 108.5 122.4 135.1 149.4 167.9 185.5 204.7 225.5 248.3 272.2

HIGH SCENARIO

-35-

ANNEX IIIPage 9 of 10

ST. VINCENT AND THE SRENADINESs ECOIINIC PROJECTIONS

Actual PROJECTED

1905 1906 1907 1990 1l9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

IALNNCE OF PAYHENTS:

(US$ uillion)

Exports, SNFS 79.0 90.3 102.5 115.9 130.3 150.2 166.8 194.8 204.4 225.7 248.1leportsS 95".1 108.5 122.4 135.1 149.4 167.9 IB5.5 204.7 225.5 240.3 272.2

Rourcs Blnce -16.1 -18.2 -20.0 -19.2 -19.2 -17.7 -18.7 -19.8 -21.1 -22.6 -24.1

FOY (nolt -1.5 -2.3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -3.7 -4.0 -4.5Internt/Public DMbt -1.1 -1.8 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.8 -3.1 -3.4other -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1

Transfeus 9.2 10.0 11.0 11.7 12.7 14.1 15.6 17.2 19.1 21.1 23.2

Current Account Balance -9.4 -10.5 -11.6 -10.0 -9.0 -6.3 -6.1 -5.9 -5.7 -5.5 -5.3

Net Public Capital 11.5 14.0 10.5 14.0 11.1 13.0 14.1 14.8 16.7 16.7 18.5Grants 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.2Loan Disbur nts 9.3 8.2 11.7 7.7 3.6 6.4 9.4 9.9 12.0 12.6 14.9Amortization -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4

Priv.'e Cpital (notl 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9

Overall Balance 4.7 6.0 0.7 6.7 4 2 9.9 10.2 11.3 13.5 13.9 16.1

""wand" lt.t

Curret Ac't. Balance/Obl -8.3 -9.5 -9.6 -7.7 -6.4 -4.1 -3.5 -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1Debt Service Ratio t1) 4.1 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3(as S of Esports, I)

HIGH SCENARIO

- 36 -

.ANNEX IIIPage 10 of 10

ST. VINCENT AND THE GREINAESi ECO IC PRJECTIWS

Aktual PROJECTED

1985 1986 18 1988 1989 1990 1991 1m99 1993 1 1995

Public Sector Operationsi

ECU million)

Central Boivernbent

Current Revenue 87.1 94.9 103.6 107.0 116.1 129.4 142.0 157.1 173.8 192.3 211.7Taxes 76.9 93.8 91.4 94.5 1O2.5 113.4 125.4 138.7 13.4 169.7 186.9Non Tai 10.2 11.1 12.1 12.5 13.6 15.0 16.6 18.4 20.4 22.5 24.9

Current Expenditure 73.9 78.8 84.1 89.7 94.7 103.0 112.0 121.8 132.5 144.1 156.3Nos and Slaries 36.8 39.3 41.9 44.2 47.1 51.3 55.8 60.7 66.0 71.8 77.8Goods and Services 22.8 24.3 25.9 27.4 29.2 31.9 34.5 37.6 40.9 U.5 4.2Other 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.9 21.7 23.6 25.6 27.9 30.2

Cntral b vornment Savings 13.2 16.1 19.5 18.3 21.4 25.5 30.1 35.3 41.3 48.2 55.4

Public Sector Accounts

Public Sector Savings 18.0 21.7 26.2 24.8 29.0 34.2 40.3 47.2 55.1 64.0 73.5Gen'I Governmnt Savings 16.8 20.4 24.8 23.3 27.3 32.4 38.3 44.9 52.6 61.3 70.5Paastatal Savings 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0

Capital Expediturn 38.1 43.9 57.0 50.2 4.3 50.4 55.7 61.7 68.2 75.4 83.1

Ovrall bficit -20.1 -22.2 -30.9 -25.4 -19.4 -16.2 -15.4 -14.5 -13.1 -11.4 -9..

Financint 20.1 22.2 30.8 25.4 19.4 16.2 15.4 14.5 13.1 11.4 9.6

External Finncing (not) 28.9 40.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 35.0 38.0 40.0 45.0 45.0 50.0Domtic Finauning (net) -8.8 -17.8 -19.2 -14.6 -10.6 -18.8 -22.6 -25.5 -31.9 -33.6 -0.4

Nesorandu" Items

Dbt Servicu/C kwv"u 9.9 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.2 8.6 8.5 7.8 7.4Ratios to SsPublic Setor Savings 6.6 7.3 8.0 7.1 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.6Central Govt. Savings 4.8 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.0Parastatal hvings 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Gneal Govt. Sving 6.1 6.8 7.6 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.7 10.2Cntral GMvt. Revenu 31.8 31.7 31.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6Ta vue 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0mnsUetion 85.6 83.9 83.1 82.7 82.9 82.3 81.3 80.3 79.3 78.3 77.2Domtic Savings 14.4 16.1 16.9 17.3 17.1 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.1 22.9burce Sap -15.9 -16.4 -16.5 -14.8 -13.6 -11.4 -10.9 -10.4 -10.0 -9.7 -9.4Investen 30.3 34.2' 34.6 33.3 31.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0National hvings 22.0 23.0 23.8 24.4 24.3 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0 29.0 31.0

Soe: Ilisslon etimtes.

- 37 -

ST. VINCENT AND TH GUMNADIt4ES

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents *

Table No.

1.1 Selected Vital Statistics2.1 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices2.2 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at 1977 Constant Prices2.3 Expenditure on GDP at Current Prices2.4 Mxpenditure on GDP at 1977 Constant Prices3.1 Balance of Payments4.1 Summary of External Public Debt Operations5.1 Operations of the Consolidated Public Sector5.5 Central Government Uperations5.6 Public Sector Investment Program6.0 Consolidated Commercial Bank Operations6.4 Interest Rate Structure7.1 Selected Tourism Data8.1 Consumer Price Index

For purposes of easy reference, the numbering of the tables in thisStatistical Appendix is identical to that of the Statistical Appendixin the detailed report, "St. Vincent and the Grenadines - EconomicSituation and Selected Development Issues," Report No. 5241-STV,published May 10, 198S.

- 38 -

Table 1.1 i ST. VINCENT AND THE BRENADINES - SELECTED VITAL STATISTICS

1980 1981 1992 1983 1984 1985

Total Population 103,261 104,683 106,243 107,697 108,748 110,192(End Of Year)

Crude Birth Rate (per 1000) 30.0 31.3 32.0 31.0 26.3 26.9

Crude Death Rate (per 1000) 7.1 7.5 :.1 7.3 6.5 6.0

Rate of Natural Increase 23.0 23.8 24.9 23.7 19.9 20.9

Total Births 3,075 3,227 3,352 3,295 2,831 2,910

Total Deaths 724 772 745 779 703 651

Natural Increase 2,351 2,455 2,607 2,516 2,128 2,259

Net Migration -1433 -1033 -1047 -1062 -1077 -91S

Net Population Increase 918 1,422 1,560 1,454 1,051 1,444

Infant Deaths IBr 151 134 122 75 59

Infant Mortality Rate 60.2 46.9 40.6 37.0 26.5 20.3

Sources: Ministry of Health, Ministry of Finance and Planning,Statistical Office, and mission estimates.

- 39 -

Table 2.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - SECTORAL ORIGINOF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES

(EC$ Million)

1990 1981 1982 1983 1994 1995

Agriculture, Livestock & Fishing 19.8 27.5 31.9 35.5 39.2 44.1

Quarrying 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Construction 18.4 20.6 21.8 23.2 22.7 25.2

Manufacturing 14.2 19.4 20.7 21.3 22.0 19.6

Electricity and Water 3.3 4.4 5.2 6.8 6.3 7.1

Transport and Comounications 20.5 25.6 30.9 33.2 35.9 37.6

Wholesale and Retail Trade 17.6 18.4 22.6 24.3 26.1 28.7

Hotels and Restaurants 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8

Banking, Finance, Real Estate &Business Services 15.1 18.3 20.5 22.0 22.7 22.9

Public Administration 22.2 30.3 35.0 38.2 43.3 42.1

Other Services 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5

Less Imputed Bank Charges 7.4 8.5 10.8 11.4 13.0 11.0

Gross Domestic Product at f.c. 131.5 164.6 188.2 204.3 216.8 228.3

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning and Development; OECSSecretariat; and mission est mates.

- 40 -

Table 2.2: ST. VIGERETPOINARjNj - SE~T~RA ~ RINJ OF GROSStabte~~~~~~~ I DUC ST1NE"EtcT0uN2N 77 CO8 iSANi gRi

(EC$ million)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Agriculture, Livestock & Fishing 12.5 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.9 22.7

Quarrying 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

Construction 11.2 11.4 11.5 12.2 12.1 12.4

hanufacturing 11.1 11.3 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.2

Electricity and Water 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1

Transport and Communications 16.6 18.8 20.7 23.2 24.3 25.1

Wholesale and Retail Trade 12.0 11.1 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.7

Hotel and Restaurants 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6

Banking, Finance, Real Estate &Business Services 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.1

Public Adainistration 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.8 18.3 17.0

Other Services 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5

Less Imputed Service Charges 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.5

Bross Dosestic Product at f.c. 95.5 102.6 108.6 114.1 117.7 121.3

Sources: Ministry of Finance, ministry of Planning and Development; OECSSecretariat; and mission estiaatos.

- 41 -

Table 2.3: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - EXPENDITURE ON GROSSDOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES

(EC$ million)

1980 1991 1992 1993 1984 1985

TotAl ConsumptIon 159.4 191.1 218.0 231.9 233.7 234.7Public 37.7 45.0 53.1 56.8 57.7 59.6Private 121.7 134.1 164.9 175.1 176.0 175.1

gross Domestic Investment 63.0 64.1 68.3 79.6 72.0 83.1Public 24.1 28.3 21.4 23.5 19.3 27.1Private 33.2 30.0 40.7 48.4 45.9 48.7Inventory change 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.7 6.9 7.3

Resource Gap -66.7 -52.4 -61.3 -64.0 -39.4 -43.5Exports, G&NFS 104.5 120.2 129.3 151.2 186.3 213.3Imports, G&NFS 171.2 172.5 190.6 215.2 225.7 256.8

Gross Domestic Product at m.p. 155.7 192.8 225.0 246.5 266.2 274.2

Minus: Indirect TaxesNet of Subsidies a/ 24.2 28.2 36.8 42.2 49.4 45.9

Gross Domestic Product at f.c. 131.5 164.6 188.2 204.3 216.8 228.3

Net Factor Income -2.4 -4.6 -10.0 -5.4 -5.9 -4.1

Gross National Product at m.p. 153.3 109.2 215.0 241.1 260.3 270.2

Gross Domestic Savings -3.7 11.7 7.0 14.6 32.5 39.5

Net Current Transfers 32.9 35.4 44.3 45.9 33.5 24.8

Gross National Savings 26.8 42.5 41.2 55.1 60.1 60.3

a/ Government figures.

Sourcess Ministry of Finance, Statistical Unitt GECS Becrotariatand mission estimates.

- 42 -

Table 2.4: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS-DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT 1977 CONSTANT PRICES

(ECS million)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Total Consumption 105.1 103.0 117.0 124.3 119.5 113.9Public 24.9 25.6 28.5 30.4 29.3 29.9Private 80.3 77.4 88.5 93.8 89.2 85.0

Gross Domestic Investment 43.2 42.8 45.4 52.4 48.2 55.0Public 16.5 18.9 14.2 15.6 12.9 17.9Private 22.7 20.0 27.1 32.3 30.7 32.2Inventory change 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8

Resource Gap -35.2 -25.5 -32.6 -38.9 -22.2 -23.2Exports, G&NFS 74.3 78.7 84.2 97.4 122.7 138.4Imports, G&NFS 109.5 104.2 116.8 136.4 i45.0 161.6

Gross Domestic Product at m.p. 113.1 120.2 129.8 137.7 144.5 145.7

Minus: Indirect TaxesNet of Subsidies a/ 17.6 17.6 21.2 23.6 26.8 24.4

Gross Domestic Product at f.c. 95.5 102.6 108.6 114.1 117.7 121.3

Net Factor Income -1.7 -3.2 -7.1 -3.9 -4.4 -2.9

Gross National Product at n.p. 111.4 117.0 122.7 133.8 140.1 142.8

Gross Domestic Savings 8.0 17.2 12.8 13.4 26.0 31.8

Net Current Transfers 23.1 24.6 31.3 33.3 24.7 18.1

Bross National Savings 29.3 38.7 37.0 42.8 46.3 46.9

a/ Government figures.

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistical Unit, OECS Secretariat andmission estimates.

- 43 -

Table 3.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

(US$ millions)

1980 1981 1992 1983 19B4 1985

Exports of Goods and NFS 38.7 44.5 47.9 56.0 69.0 79.0Merchandise Exports 21.0 29.8 34.3 41.9 54.2 63.7Non-factor Services 17.7 14.7 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.3

Imports of Goods and NFS 63.4 63.9 70.6 79.7 83.6 95.1Merchandise Imports 57.2 58.2 63.6 70.4 76.6 85.5Non-factor Services 6.2 5.7 7.0 9.3 7.0 9.6

Resource Balance -24.7 -19.4 -22.7 -23.7 -14.6 -16.1

Factor Services & Transfers 11.3 11.4 12.7 15.0 10.2 7.7Net Factor Service Pa ment% -0.9 -1.7 -3.7 -2.0 -2.2 -1.5Transfers to Private Sector 12.2 13.1 16.4 17.0 12.4 9.2

Current Account Balance -13.4 -8.0 -10.0 -8.7 -4.4 -8.4

Private Investment 1.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.6

Public Sector 6.3 6.9 6.9 6.7 5.7 12.1Official Transfers 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.5 4.3Foreign Borrowing (net) 4.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.2 7.2ECCA/ECCB 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6Commercial Banks 1.6 -2.0 2.6 -1.4 2.4 -3.1Other Private CaDitaland Errors and Omissions 1.9 2.0 -3.8 2.7 0.4 6.5

Financing 0.5 0.7 3.7 -0.3 -4.5 -7.7

IMF 0.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.9Changes in Imputed Reserves 0.0 -1.1 3.6 -0.6 -4.1 -6.5Bov't Foreign Assets -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3

(increase a -)

Sourcest IMF and World Bank staff estimates and ECCD.

- 44 -

Table 4.1i ST VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - SUMMARY OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTOPERATIONS

Est.1981 1982 1983 1984 1985…ae.a-------------------------- W --- an--- _----- _--------- --------- _ -__-____-_

(In thousands of U.S. dollars)

Outstanding Debt at End

of Period 19,180 20,508 22,024 22,645 29,301

IMF Debt 1,746 1,654 1,570 992 171

Purchases 1,597 0 0 0 0Re urchases (-) 0 0 0 -489 -867Valuation Adjustment -106 -92 -84 -99 44

Other 17,434 18,854 20,454 21,653 29,130

Central Government 3,322 4,652 5,164 4,662 8,742Drawings see 1,952 1,031 167 116Amortizations (-) -360 -364 -346 -668Valuation Adjustment -262 -155 -323 4,632 a/

Publicly Guaranteed 14,112 14,202 15,290 16,991 20,388Drawings .. 4 866 2,251 2,759 8,313Amortizations (-) -101 -339 -353 -566

Yaluation Adjustment #as -675 -825 -705 '-4,350 a/

Debt Service Payments 1,507 1,467 1,715 2,305 3,206

Amortizations 611 461 702 1t188 2,101

IMF 0 0 0 489 867Other 611 461 702 699 1,234Central Soverneent ... 360 364 346 668Publicly Suaranteed ... 101 338 353 566

Interest 896 1,006 1,O13 1,117 1,105

IMF 88 127 146 139 85Other 808 979 867 978 1,020Central Government St* 198 202 195 410Publicly Guaranteed *St 681 665 783 610

…--------------------------------------------------------------------__------__---a/ External debt of the St. Vincent Sugar Industry Ltd. (of US$4,593,000)

assumed by the Central Bovernment.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Planning; and Fund staff estimates.

- 45 -

Table 5.1 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - OPERATIONS OF THE CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR

(EC$ ailitan)

1900 1981 19d2 1983 1984 1985

Total Revenue and Grants 56.2 77.8 94.2 85Wq 96.1 120.7

Currant Revenue 47.5 64.4 73.3 75.3 97.8 100.5Capital Grants 8.7 13.4 10.9 10.6 9.3 20.2

Total Expenditures 91.8 88.0 98.1 103.7 90.7 116.0

Cur.rent Expenditures 50.7 62.3 70.6 75.8 '74.9 77.9Capital Expenditures 41.1 25.7 27.5 27.9 15.8 38.1Fixed Asset, 38.8 17.B 24.9 22.0 Q 16.5 37.6Change in Stocks -1.1 4.8 1.1 3.8 -1.9 0.2Net Lending 3.4 3.1 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.3

Current Account Balance -3.2 2.1 2.7 -0.5 12.9 22.6

Overall Balance -35.6 -10.2 -13.9 -17.9 5.4 4.7

Financing 35.6 10.2 13.9 17.8 -5.4 -4.7

Extornal 27.8 3.6 6.6 6.1 -1.5 8.7Not Foreign Borrowing 22.8 1.9 7.3 5.0 1.1 10.5Net IMF 6.2 0.4 0.2 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7Change in Foreign Assets -1.2 1.3 -0.9 2.4 -1.6 -0.1

Domestic 7.9 6.6 7.3 11.7 -3.9 -13.4Not ECCB Borrowing 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.4 0.6 0.1Commercial Banks 7.3 4.1 3.9 3.0 -1.9 -11.7Other 0.5 1.9 0.1 1.3 -2.7 -1.8

Source: -inistry of Finance and Planning.

- 46 -

Table 5.5 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINEB - CENTRAL BOVERNMENT OPERATIONS */

(EC$ million)

Prel.1980/S1 1981/82 1992/83 1983/84 1964/85 1955/86

Total Revenue and Grants 54.5 70. J 0.8 80 3 91 5 95.3

Current Revenue 46.2 57.9 70 0 72.7 94.6 99.6Capital Grants 9.3 12.8 10.9 7.6 6.9 5.7

Total Expenditures 56.9 78.0 89.3 85.7 80.7 87.3

Current Expenditures 46.9 63.0 67.3 74.5 70.9 77.0Capital Expenditures 10.0 15.0 21.0 11.2 9.8 10.3

Current Balance -0.7 -5.1 2.7 -1.9 13.7 12.6

Overall Surplus/Deficit -2.4 -7.3 -7.5 -5.4 10.8 8.0

Financing 2.4 7.3 7.5 5.4 -10.8 -8.0

External 9.3 2.4 4.0 0.7 -3.4 -0.4Net Foreign Borrowing 3.3 0.7 4.7 -0.4 -0.8 1.4Net IMF 6.2 0.4 0.2 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7Change in Foreign Assets -1.2 1.3 -0.9 2.4 -1.6 -0.1

Domestic -5.9 4.9 3.5 4.7 -7.4 -7.6Net ECCB Borrowing 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.4 0.6 0.1National Comhercial Bank 0.4 -0.3 2.8 0.4 -4.2 19.1Other Commercial Banks 0.0 3.5 1.4 -3.3 -0.8 -0.5National Provident Fund 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0State Enterprises -6.1 0.5 -4.0 0.1 0.1 0.0Other -0.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 -3.1 -26.3

a/ Realtes to fiscal year ending June 30.

Sourcest Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development and missionestimates.

- 47 -

Paqe I of 2Table 5.6: St. VINCENT - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM

(EC$ '000)

1995/86 1906/87 1987/18

PROJECT total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Industrial Estate 1277 1277 0 1350 1350 0 0 0 0Ht. Bentick Rua Distillery 548 546 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Student Loans IV & V 139. 138 0 400 400 0 545 545 0Water Development - Installation of Meters 292 224 68 361 321 40 362 322 40Elettricity Systes -2nd 37/StR 336 123 213 5084 4050 1034 7568 6277 1291Inproveents to Mater Supplies 930 930 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Wharf Extension 362 362 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Power Project 5/OR & 30/SfR 3650 3650 0 913 913 0 0 0 0Consolidated Line of Credit 16 16 0 1110 I1I0 0 2344 2344 0Input Revolving Fund 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0National Documentation Centre 44 44 0 22 22 0 0 0 0Cargo Nandling Equipsent - Kingstown 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OFruit Fly Trapping 0 0 0 170 140 30 0 0 0Iproveents to Schools 0 0 0 395 0 385 385 0 385Fruit and Vegetable Proc. 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 400 100Cunberland Hydro 11785 10184 1601 27684 26018 1666 19464 19464 0Part Authority Standby Generators 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Port Handling Equipmnt Phase I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Bequia Road Dfvelopment 8 0 8 4 0 4 0 0 0Akquisition of COC Sharmholding in VINLEC 105 0 105 0 0 0 0 0 0Kingstown Port Developmnt 48 0 48 110 0 110 0 0 0Land Acquisition/Property Cpensation 13 0 13 17 0 17 0 0 0Livestock Development (phase I1) 9 9 0 300 300 0 0 0 0Other(1) 260 260 0 260 260 0 260 260 0Low Cost Housing Scheme (Taiwan - NCO) 2733 2733 0 2499 2038 460 0 0 0Georgetown Water Supply Project (Taiwan - NCO) 852 952 0 239 239 0 0 0 0I-Ray machine, Kinqstowm Hopital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Colonarie Primary School Home Economics Unit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Reconstruction of Oiabou Methodist School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Multi - Island Vocational Training Project 0 0 0 200 0 200 0 0 0Beorgetim Health Centre 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Data Processing 44 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 0Generators 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Relocation of CA building 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Renovation to Government House 380 0 380 280 0 280 51 0 51Purchase of Lao - S.Rivers 0 0 0 0 0 0o 0 0Reconstruction of Adelphi Se. School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

.__ _ ___ _____.___ _ ___ ___ -__ _~~~~~~~~**

. - ,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

- 48 -

Paqe 2 of 2Table 5.6: ST. VINCENT - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM

(EC$ '000)

1995/86 19866/7 1997189

PROJECT Total External Local Total External Loral Total External Local

Top Iorking Mango - Extension 18 18 0 a 9 89 0 0 0 0Purchase of Police Radios 0 0 0 441 441 0 0 0 0Overland Prieary School 48 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Agricultural Input Storage Building 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Comunity Developsent Programe 794 794 0 500 500 0 0 0 0Banana Industry Support Scheme 317 317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Storeroom - Fasily Planning Services 0 0 0 38 38 0 0 0 0Productive Infrastructure Rehabilitation 11 0 0 0 400 400 0 1000 1000 0Agricultural Diversification and Promotion 1072 1072 0 2101 1145 956 0 0 0Replacement of Radio Transmitter - Radio 705 0 0 0 464 464 0 0 0 0Productive Infrastructure Rehabilitation 1 1306 1300 7 0 0 0 0 0 0Caribbean Agricultural Extension Project (CAEP) 110 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Food Aid Storage 0 0 0 50 50 0 0 0 0Road Improve ments - BNTF Phase 1 1493 1493 0 1050 1050 0 0 0 0Vater lprove ments - BNTF 1 227 227 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Grenadines MuJtipurpose 0 0 0 500 450 50 2500 2250 250Quarry Development - Phase I 0 0 0 550 500 50 4050 3645 405Diamond Industrial Estate 0 0 0 0 0 0 1250 1250 0Orange Hill 0 0 0 976 788 88 1751 1575 176Agricultural Feeder Roads III 0 0 0 1325 1000 325 3250 2925 325Orange Hill 0 0 0 200 200 0 0 0 0Diamond Industrial Estate 0 0 0 0 0 0 1250 1250 0Canouan Airstrip - Surfacing 300 300 0 300 300 0 0 0 0Developmnt of Fishing Industry 0 0 1000 1000 0 2400 2400 0Road RehabilitationlImprovements 163 0 163 175 0 175 200 0 200Sea & River Defences 180 0 190 200 0 200 200 0 200Richmond Land Settlement - Infrastructure 0 0 0 200 0 200 200 0 200Rehabilitation of lindward Highway 47 0 47 50 0 50 75 0 75kingstown Hospital Redevelopment 0 0 0 O 0 0 2500 2500 0Orange Hill 0 0 0 500 500 0 1000 1000 0Repairs to Foreshore and Sewer Outfall 116 0 116 0 0 0 0 0 0lIprovemnts to Arnos Vale Airport 19 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 06eneral Science Laboratories - 6S 0 0 0 60 0 60 0 0 0Iprovements to PUD Stores/Carpentry Workshop 147 0 147 91 0 91 0 0 0Equipment - Hospital * Other Health Fac. 0 0 0 237 0 237 205 0 205Vector Control Progrme - Vehicles 48 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0Beorgetom -Fncy Road -Phase I 30 30 0 1520 1520 0 0 0 0Banana Industry Support Scheme 0 0 0 700 700 0 700 700 0Construction of New Kingstown Primary School 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 1960 1960 0Coastguard Base 0 0 0 875 875 0 438 439 0Tourism Facilities 0 0 0 119 39 90 129 29 101Agrolab 0 0 0 500 500 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 30263 27058 3205 57498 50711 6788 56537 52533 4004-------- ~-- --------------

Sourcei Central Planning Unit, Ministry of Finance.

- 49 -

Table 6.1i ST. VINCENT AND THE BRENADINES - CONSOLIDATED COMMERCIAL BANK OPERATIONS

(ECS million)…-…--------------n -------------------------------- "---_---____-----------___----------__._

Decaeber 31

1990 1991 192 98 1992 193 1994 198S

Not Foreign Assets 3.4 9.3 -7.3 -3.9 7l8 22.0

Assets 35.0 42.3 35.5 30.3 45.1 59.5Foreign Currency Holdings 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9Claims on ECCD 11.2 13.2 9.0 4.0 22.4 26.0o.w.t Currency Holdings 4 2 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.7 5.8Claims on ECCB Area Banks 11.0 16.7 12.6 8.6 5.9 7.8Claims on Banks Abroad 6.8 7.2 10.0 6.6 9.5 9.3Other Lending to Nonresidents 3.4 3.3 3.4 9.4 6.5 14.6Liabilities 31.6 33.0 42.9 34.2 37.3 37.5Balance Due to ECCB 0.0 1.3 5.7 1.9 2.1 0.0Balance Due to ECCO Avea Banks 2.2 1.1 2.7 2.4 0.5 3.2Balance Due to Banks Abroad 5.5 7.4 6.4 5.4 6.7 6.5Nonresident Deposits 23.9 23.2 29.0 24.5 29.0 27.8Demand 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.6 5.3Savings 15.1 16.0 19.6 16.8 17.5 14.4Ti me 4.5 3.3 4.6 4.1 5.9 8.1

Net Domestic Assets 62.7 66.3 97.6 94.9 94.9 90.9---- --- ---Net Credit to Central Government 6.8 9.4 14.9 15.2 6.9 6.3Treasury Bills 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Debentures 0.7 1.1 0.6 5.6 5.4 5.4Loans & Advances incl. Overdraft 4.1 4.7 11.0 6.7 4.2 3.1Special Deposit Requirement b/ 2.1 2.3 2.5 7.7 0.0 0.0Government Deposits (-) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -5.8 -3.8 -3.2Net Credit to Other Public Sector -7.4 -5.0 -0.4 -0.9 3.8 -1.3Credit 11.6 19.2 30.5 35.4 44.0 45.0Deposit C-) -19 0 -24.2 -30.9 -36.2 -40.2 -46.3Net Credit to Nonbank FinancialIntermediaries -2.9 -4.2 -5.4 -4.1 -5.1 -5.0Credit 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4Deposit (-) -3.1 -4.8 -6.3 -4.8 -5.9 -5.4Credit to Private Sector 68.0 73.3 84.0 97.5 104.6 107.0Interbank Float 0.6 -1.5 2.3 0.3 0.9 0.5Claims 2.8 4.0 7.7 1.4 2.0 1.9Liabilities 2.2 5.5 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.4

Net Unclassified Assets *-2.5 -4.7 -7.8 -13.3 -16.t -16.6

Liabilities to Private Sector c/ 66.1 75.6 80.3 90.9 102.7 112.7

Demand Deposits 12.2 14.1 13.3 45.1 20.7 16.5Savings Deposits 38.8 43.0 42.8 48.6 51.3 61.1Time DeposIts 15.1 18.5 24.2 27.2 30.7 35.1

a/ Includes oporations of the Barclays Bankl National CommercialBDak Caribbean Banking Corporation, Bank of Nova Scotia, andCanadian Imperial Dank of Commerce.

b/ As of September 1983 the soecial deoosit requireoment for commercialbanks was increased Irom 2.50X to 7.50X of tho total deposits.

c/ Includes resident deposits in foreign currencies.

Sourcess Eastern Caribboan Central Bank, coomer;ial banks, and INF staff

~~~~~~4, , -

-50-

Table 6.4: ST. VINTW AND THE LNADINKs - LNTKkbT mATI STbWK.?U

(In Percent)

ecember 31190 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Deposits

Savings 2.5-4.*0 25-5.0 Z.5-5.0 z.5-5.0 2.5-J.u 3.0-5.0Tunm

3 Months 2.5-4.5 3*0-4.5 4.*0-5.5 4.0-5.5 4.0-6.0 4.0-6.U3-6 tonths 3.5-5.0 3.5-5.5 4.0-6.5 4.e0-.0 4.0-.5 4.0-6.56-12 Montho 3.5-5.5 3.5-6.0 4.6.0 4.5-7.5 4.5-7.5 4.5-7.5

Prime Rate .0-101.0 8.0-10.0 9.0-10.0 9.0-12.U 9.0-12.U 11.01UZ.>other 9.0-14.5 9.0-14.5 Iu.U-14.5 10.5-14.5 11.0-14.5 1i.0-1.Certaln Consumer Loans

Under ECS14,500 ... 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

sources: The Barclays sanK, National Commercial Sank, Caribbean Banking Corporation, CanadianIWperial bank of CGomrce, bank of Nova Scotia, sad kCCB.

.wv. 4

- 51 -

Table 7.1. ST. VINCENT AND THE BRENADINES - SELECTED TOURISI DATA

1990 1981 1qS2 1993 1904 1995

Total Number of Visitors 78,015 71,475 67,595 72,719 91,106 77,181

Air 49,754 49,732 46,173 47,405 47,427 52,696Hotel/Guest Houses 19,627 19,395 14,738 13,367 12,299 12,276Cottages/Private Houses 18,803 20,231 20,152 20,598 23,579 27,745Yachts 1,699 1,963 2,199 3,740 2,591 2,078Excursionists a/ 9,625 8,153 9,094 9,700 8,969 10,597Cruise Ships by Sea b/ 28,261 21,743 21,425 25,314 43,679 24,495

Weighted Days of Stay per

Visitor c/ 5.36 6.59 6.39 6.15 5.24 6.52

Hotel/Guest Houses 9 9 9 9 9 9Cottages/Private Houses 10 12 12 12 12 12Yachts 9 12 12 12 12 12

Volume of Visitors

(thousand days) 417.9 470.7 431.3 447.4 477.3 503.4------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Weighted Daily Expenditure

per Visitor (US dollar) 30.0 30.6 30.0 30.7 30.1 29.9

Hotel/Suest Houses ... 58 62 67 72 77Cottages/Private Houses ... 13 14 15 15 1SVachtsi In Hotels d/ ..s 58 62 67 72 77

On Boats gas 13 14 15 15 15Excursionists .to 22 25 26 26 26Cruise Ships and Others ... 22 25 26 26 26

Total Expenditure by Visitor

(millions of US dollars) 12.5 14.4 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0- annnnnnnn---an - ------ na ------ a …--- a---- -- a-a-

a/ Official data combine excursionists with yacht visitors. It is assumedthat excursionists are 15X of the total

b/ Obtained from data on cruise ship passngers, with the assumption thatonly 652 of them disembark.

c/ Assumes that excursionists and cruive ship visitors spend a day onthe island.

d/ Assumes that visitors arriving by air for achting spend on averagetwo nights in hotels and the roeainder on boats.

Sources Tourist board and mission estiiates.

- 52 -

Table B.1: ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

----------------------------------------------------------------- __------

New, Re-weighted Series (Jan. 1991 * 100)

1991 1982 1993 1984 1985

Period Averages

All items 106.6 114.4 120.6 123.9 126.4

Food and Beverages 105.6 110.6 116.4 119.0 117.3Tobacco and Alcohol 105.8 118.2 122.1 125.2 128.0Clothing and Footwear 105.1 119.9 124.9 123.7 129.3Housing 106.4 108.0 119.5 135.5 173.8Fuel and Light 113.4 119.3 129.2 135.1 141.2Furniture 102.3 110.7 116.5 121.4 121.4Household Supplies 113.8 139.8 145.2 147.5 142.0Transport & Communications 108.5 120.0 120.3 122.2 123.0Other Services 109.3 128.3 134.6 143.8 149.1

Percent Changes

All items . 7.3 5.4 2.7 2.0

Food and Beverages . 4.7 5.2 1.4 -0.6Tobacco and Alcohol . 11.7 3.3 2.5 2.2Clothing and Footwear . 14.0 4.3 -1.0 4.5Housing . 1.5 10.6 13.4 28.3Fuel and Light . 4.3 9.2 4.6 4.5Furniture . 9.2 5.2 4.2 0.0Household Supplies . 22.0 4.6 1.6 -3.7Transport & Comunications . 10.6 0.2 1.6 0.7Other Services . 17.4 4.9 6.9 3.7

End of Period

All items 111.7 117.1 123.1 125.7 127.3

Food and Beverages 109.1 113.5 119.5 117.0 118.6Tobacco and Alcohol 114.1 120.9 123.6 128.0 130.0Clothing and Footwear 115.8 120.8 126.0 123.3 125.2Housing 107.9 108.0 123.4 171.9 174.4Fuel and Light 117.3 121.8 128.1 133.9 141.9Furniture 103.2 114.4 121.9 115.9 121.6Household Supplies 130.1 142.4 146.5 147.6 135.0Transport & Communications 119.0 121.7 120.7 121.8 125.0Other Services 117.3 133.5 136.4 149.3 147.9

Percent Changes

All items * 4.8 5.1 2.1 1.3

Food and Beverages . 4.0 5.3 -2.1 1.4Tobacco and Alcohol . 6.0 2.2 3.6 1.6Clthing and Footwear . 4.3 4.3 -2.1 1.5Housing . 0.1 14.3 39.3 1.5Fuel and Light . 3.8 5.2 4.5 6.0Furniture . 10.9 6.6 -4.9 4.9Household SuDplies . 9.5 2.9 0.8 -8.5Transport & Communications . 2.3 -0.8 0.9 2.6Other Services . 13.9 2.2 9.5 -0.9

…_____________________________________________________________- __- _____Sourcet Statistical Unit, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development.

MAP SECTION

. ..... . . _.________ ,IBRD 500Re6^1O o 4APRIL 1960

STMVINCENT I

ST. VNcENT & THE GRENADINES6 OMOA I

New So SoVillage

GRENACI I "

Overlond Villae

Main Roads Taurama

Secondary Roads

tuf Moin Cities Oroig Hill

0 14*1W4 < ' %VWoterloo

Parish Boundories Richmond Q

Rivers 1c ;

\ ~~~~~~tongloy Park

8CHATEAUBELAIR - 'ongePaTto~~~~~~~~~~~ioko ~~~~~~~~~~~~Coratal Village

Shorps GEORGETOWN

0

Coca s ring .yjlloie B__y' o ,/ srero Village

-1315'

13 I S,-

woll,obo. lobitsog

BARROUALLIE, C,j

Diamond

, S T P t ~ \S o sSouci

G 'I 'eG, ns n

/~~~ , +trmont T "' < ~~~~~~~~~~Codors ;

LAYOU; 'Relnd\{ ~ -

AN D R E W ,'X

voll Clouncey } S T Ma pMsiotomlo gSorn5310 Camden Pi- 6G E O R G E f-PeruvionVo

.13 lo t towm~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ons Redemptor, EYI 13 1

j t t ~~~~~~~~~~~~Gom2> >t

G a Posec

KINGSTOWN

i: 2 4 i 3 --o'

K::O ? Ea.. .

°.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~vn ,s. ?ln- ? fl' 'i,