Public Expenditure for Tiger Conservation in India:

Understanding the Trends and Linkages

Bibhu Prasad NayakThe Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)

New Delhi

Study Objectives

The study aims at exploring• the trends and patterns of government

expenditure (Project Tiger) based on approved APOs for tiger reserves

• whether the outcomes in terms of change in tiger numbers in the reserves are linked to the expenditure pattern

Project Tiger

Project Tiger, launched in 1973 as a centrally sponsored scheme, with 9 tiger reserves in 9 different states with around 9000 sq km of core reserve area

Increased to 48 tiger reserves spread across 18 different states with 40000 sq km of core and 70000 sq km of buffer

The size of the reserve (core area) varies from 200 (Nameri) to 2600 sq km (NSTR) ‘Core- Buffer’ PA management strategySariska ‘tragedy’ in 2004 and aftermath

Tiger Challenges

Habitat Quality and Prey: Occupancy declined in from 2006 and 2010. Though overall prey population increased, it has declined in several parks too; corridor connectivity issues

Mortality Poaching is still a threat in several reserves. Of the 43 tiger death in 2013, 23 were poached;diseases, infighting and natural death are

Tiger Challenges

Communities and Livelihood -762 villages (over 48000 families) in core, 3678 villages (223000 families) in buffer -800 to 1200 sq km of inviolate space? -Coexistence ? Management Approaches

- Tiger centric and top down - Leadership

Effectiveness Concern

2005 Tiger Task Force: institutional inertia, lack of innovative protection initiatives, inadequate compensation, outcome measure

2006 CAG Review: gap between allocation and release; non-utilization of allocated funds; poor monitoring and documentation of expenditure; inadequate protection infrastructure and staff; no definite relocation plan

Management Effectiveness Evaluations: 2006, 2011 & 2015:45 qualitative criteria covering planning, input, process and output

Methodology and Data Sources

• Trends and patterns of expenditure under ‘project tiger’ in 28 tiger reserves

• Panel regression examining the linkage between expenditure pattern and outcomes

• Expenditure data: APOs (NTCA)• Outcomes-tiger population: Tiger Census (WII)• Field visits to 3 tiger reserves (Nagarjunasagar-

Srisailam, Dudhwa and Corbett)

Expenditure: Project Tiger

Project Tiger is a centrally sponsored scheme and mostly funded by the central government with a little share of the state governments in which the tiger projects are located

Funds are allocated in five year plans and the annual allocations for each tiger reserve are made based on the demand for resources from respective tiger reserves

Three major heads of allocation i.e., non-recurring (center), recurring (state and center share equally) and eco-development (center)

Tiger reserves do to gets funds from sources other than project tiger

Expenditure: Others

Other central and state government schemes

Tiger Conservation Foundations

Conservation and development NGOs

This study discusses only the Expenditure under Project Tiger

Expenditure under Project Tiger in FYPs: 1973-74 to 2011-12 (Rs. Millions in 2004-05 Prices)

1974-79 1980-85 1985-90 1992-97 1997-02 2002-07 2007-120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

311 243 490 669 9201506

5845

% Share of Project Tiger in MoEF’s Total Outlay

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.0026.79

22.30

12.91 12.6611.06

9.04 8.90

24.04

20.81

17.55

7.175.64

3.24 2.67 2.615.03 5.33

12.93

9.167.07

% of Total Forest and Wildlife % of MoEF's Total Expenditure

Tiger Reserve wise Allocations

Allocations are made based on Annual Plan of Operations (APOs); center and state share

Allocations vs expenditures Allocation for 28 tiger reserves from 2004-05 to 2011-12:

Rs. 5692 millions at 2004-05 prices Grouping the Expenses -Infrastructure -Protection -Habitat Improvement -Relocation -Human-Animal Conflict -Other Activities -Eco-Development

Allocation Pattern: 2004-05 to 2011-12

62%

35%

3%

Non-Recurring

Recurring

Eco Devel-opment

Allocation Pattern: 2004-05 to 2011-12

17%

21%

38%

9%

2% 9%

3%

infrastructureprotectionrelocationhabitatconflictotherecodev

Allocation of Non-Recurring and Recurring Expenses

10%

14%

62%

3%2% 9%

infrastructure

protection

relocation

habitat

conflict

other

33%

36%

20%

3% 9%

infrastructure

protection

habitat

conflict

other

Allocation-Tiger Reserve wise (without Relocation) 2004-05 to 2011-12

Bandipur

Corbett

Kanha

Manas

Melghat

Palamu

Rantham

bore

Simlip

al

Sunderban

s

Periya

r

Sarisk

aBuxa

Indravati

Nagarj

unasag

ar

Namdap

ha

DudhwaKMTR

Valmiki

Pench

(MP)

Tadoba

Bandhav

garhPan

na

Dampa

Bhadra

Pench

(MH)

Pakke

Nameri

Satpura

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Per Sq Km (Core Area) Allocation (Relocation Excluded) 2004-05 to 2011-12

Bandipur

Corbett

Kanha

Manas

Melghat

Palamu

Rantham

bore

Simlip

al

Sunderban

s

Periya

r

Sarisk

aBuxa

Indravati

Nagarj

unasag

ar

Namdap

ha

DudhwaKMTR

Valmiki

Pench

(MP)

Tadoba

Bandhav

garhPan

na

Dampa

Bhadra

Pench

(MH)

Pakke

Nameri

Satpura

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

All India Tiger Population

1972 1979 1984 1989 1993 1995 1997 2002 2006 2010500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1827

3015

4005

4334

3750

1333

3508

3642

1411

1706

1165

15201657

1909

tiger number lower limit upper limit

Tiger Census 2006 and 2010

• Four Phases Phase I: Determining

occupancy and mapping relative abundance

Phase II: Remotely Sensed spatial and attribute covariates

Phase III: Camera Trapping Phase IV: Annual

Monitoring of individual reserve and MSTRIPES for source population

2006 20100

200400600800

10001200140016001800

1411

1706

2006 201075000

80000

85000

90000

95000 93697

81881

Population (in Nos)

Occupancy (in Sq. Km)

% Change in Tiger Population- 2006 to 2010 census

Bandipur

Corbett

Kanha

Manas

Melghat

Palamu

Rantham

bore

Simlip

al

Sunderban

s

Periya

rNSTR

DudhwaKMTR

Valmiki

Pench

(mp)

Tadoba

Bandhav

garhPan

na

Dampa

Bhadra

Pench

(MH)

Nameri

Satpura

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

% Change in Occupancy- 2006 to 2010 census

Bandipur

Corbett

Kanha

Manas

Melghat

Palamu

Rantham

bore

Simlip

al

Sunderban

s

Periya

rNSTR

DudhwaKMTR

Valmiki

Pench

(mp)

Tadoba

Bandhav

garhPan

na

Dampa

Bhadra

Pench

(MH)

Nameri

Satpura

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Expenditure and Change in Population

Expenditure and Change in Occupancy

Variables(Randomized Negative Binomial Model)

Dependent Variable Explanatory Variables

Tiger Number Expenditure Variables Controls

Infrastructure Reserve Area

Protection Rainfall

Habitat improvement TemperatureHuman-animal conflict Villages in core

Other activities Villages in buffer

Families in core

Families in buffer

Discussion

Tiger number as dependent variableLimitations of expenditure dataExpenditure as explanatory variable: -Expenditure decision making -Differential perceptions -Administrative issues

Thank You

Tiger Pictures in the slides sourced from www.tigernation.org (Madhuri-Tadoba Andheri, Krishna-Ranthambore, Vijaya-Bandhavgarh)