POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION

FY 2016 Proposed PRTC Budget

Public Hearing(s) Presentation

Manassas City Hall on March 12, 2015 @ 7 PM

PRTC Transit Center on March 10, 2015 @ 7PM

Background

• Conforms in large measure to FY 2016 budget

guidelines PRTC Board adopted in September 2014

• Austerity-minded because of major funding

uncertainties, compelling conservative assumptions

– Federal funding remains flat

– State funding shrinks by 10% in FY 2016 and more

dramatically beginning in FY 2018

– Maximum allowable commuter benefit remains unchanged

• Revenues as assumed match expenses for only one

year (FY 2016)

Background (continued)

• Beyond FY 2016, there is growing shortage of Prince

William local funding

– Only assured source is the 2.1% motor fuels tax

– Shortage sized by assuming no service cuts and “normal”

cycle of fare increases every-other-year in the out years of

the six-year plan

• Sets stage for Prince William policy decision(s) – does

Prince William

– Supplement motor fuels tax as necessary to sustain transit

services or

– Compel service cuts beginning in FY 2017 by deciding on

lesser supplement or no supplement at all

Proposed FY 2016 Budget - Elements

• Operating

– Bus Service Levels

– Proposed Route One OmniRide elimination

– Proposed Fare Increase

– Other Services

• Capital

– Rolling Stock

– Facility Improvements

– Technology Enhancements

Bus Service Levels (FY 2016- FY 2021)

• All existing services other than Route One

OmniRide route sustained in FY 2016

– Further discussion of the one route elimination

proposal later in presentation

• Only new services are state-sponsored per I-95

Express Toll Lanes transit / TDM plan)

– Two routes to the Mark Center beginning in FY 2016

– Multiple services beginning in FY 2021

Route One OmniRide Route – Proposed for Elimination

• Service is a single trip in the AM and in the PM

• The least productive OmniRide route

– Average daily ridership is 21.5 -- 15.4 on single

AM trip and 6.1 on single PM trip

• Alternate routes available

– 40% of the AM boardings are at the Route 123 park-

ride lot, which is also served by the Lake Ridge

OmniRide routes

– South Route One route is an alternative for riders at

southern end of the route

Single Trip Fares Fare Type Fare Change Service Type

SmarTrip OmniLink Metro Direct OmniRide

Existing Full Fare $1.30 $2.90 $5.75

Proposed Full Fare $1.40 $3.10 $6.20

Increase 7.69% 6.90% 7.83%

Existing Reduced Fare $0.65 $1.80 $3.85

Proposed Reduced

Fare $0.70 $1.90 $4.15

Increase 7.69% 5.56% 7.79%

Cash OmniLink Metro Direct OmniRide

Existing Fare $1.30 $3.60 $7.70

Proposed Fare $1.40 $3.85 $8.30

Increase 7.69% 6.94% 7.79%

Existing Reduced Fare $0.65 $1.80 $3.85

Proposed Reduced

Fare $0.70 $1.90 $4.15

Increase 7.69% 5.56% 7.79%

Fare Increase Proposed for FY 2016

Note: Reduced fare = senior (age 60)+ and disabled – current effective days and hours will not change

Other OmniLink Ticket Types

Fare Change Ticket Type

Day Pass Weekly Pass

Existing Fare $3.00 $12.00

Proposed Fare $3.25 $13.00

Increase 8.33% 8.33%

Existing Reduced Fare $1.50 $6.00

Proposed Reduced Fare $1.60 $6.50

Increase 6.67% 8.33%

Off-route Fare

Existing Fare $1.30

Proposed Fare $1.40

Increase 7.69%

Note: Reduced fare = senior (age 60+) and disabled - current effective days and hours will not change

Fare Increase Proposed for FY 2016

Other Services

• Last installment of local funding for Vanpool

Alliance Program in FY 2016; financially self-

supporting thereafter

• Wheels-to-Wellness Program (PHF-funded

taxicab subsidy for qualifying registrants’

health care access) ends unless additional PHF

funding or other 100% grant funding is

awarded

Planned Bus Acquisitions - FY 2016 thru FY 2021

REPLACEMENTS FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

45-foot OmniRide 0 34 0 8 5 10

40-foot OmniRide 4 0 1 0 0 0

30-foot OmniLink 0 0 0 1 0 16 NEW/EXPANDED SERVICE FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

45-foot OmniRide 0 0 0 0 19 0

40-foot OmniRide 0 0 0 0 1 0

30-foot OmniLink 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rolling Stock

Planned Bus Mid-life Overhauls -- FY 2016 thru FY 2021

FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

45-foot OmniRide 11 8 4 4 5 0

40-foot OmniRide 0 1 0 13 0 0

Facility Improvements

• Pay-go funding for construction assumed for

westerly bus maintenance facility

– $16 million of NVTA regional funding in FY

2016

– $8 million of DRPT funding

– $2 million Federal (already secured)

• Bus shelter program continues to be funded

at prevailing level

Technology Enhancements

• CAD/AVL system – Fully implemented in FY 2015

– Extended warranty for O&M applies to FY 2016

– Locally funded O&M in FY 2017 and beyond

• SmarTrip successor – WMATA has awarded contract to Accenture

– Presumption is that rest of regional partners (including PRTC & VRE) will migrate in this fashion later

– Funding in FY 2016 confined to development of specs and cost estimate and technical assistance

– No implementation funding programmed in out-years because cost is still an unknown quantity

Projects for Which Federal Funding Will Be Sought

• PRTC is applicant for all such projects

for itself and for VRE

• A public review is required before

application(s) can be entertained

• Projects that PRTC intends to seek

federal funding shown on next slide

Projects for Which Federal Funding Will Be Sought

• PRTC Purchase of Buses

• PRTC Bus Preventive

Maintenance

• PRTC TDM/Commuter

Assistance Program

• PRTC Bus Shelter Program

• PRTC Western Maintenance

Facility Project

• PRTC Security Enhancements

• VRE Alexandria Station

Platform

• VRE Track Lease/Improvement

Payments

• VRE Facilities Infrastructure Renewal

• VRE Heavy Maintenance and Repair

Facility

• VRE Capital Fleet Replacement and

Expansion

• VRE Positive Train Control

• VRE Lorton Station Platform Projects

• VRE Mid-Day Storage

• VRE Spotsylvania Third Track

• VRE Grant and Project Management

• VRE Station Security Enhancements

• VRE Signage/Lighting Enhancements

Description Admin OmniRide OmniLink Marketing Vanpool Total

Farebox 0 10,488,900 849,700 0 0 11,338,600

Reimbursements from VRE 71,000 0 0 0 0 71,000

State Grants 1,464,600 11,826,200 3,488,700 198,500 890,400 17,868,400

Federal Grants 900 3,890,900 1,034,400 240,300 0 5,166,500

Advertising Revenue 0 0 0 100,000 0 100,000

Interest 1,600 500 500 0 0 2,600

Bond Proceeds 0 0 0 0 0 0

NVTA Regional Money 0 11,880,000 3,960,000 0 0 15,840,000

Carryover Fed/State/Local Funds 0 753,900 29,100 0 0 783,000

Miscellaneous Revenue 0 0 0 0 389,600 389,600

Subsidy - PWC 271,200 6,970,400 7,641,900 659,500 191,900 15,734,900

Subsidy - Manassas 22,200 0 314,300 18,200 0 354,700

Subsidy - Manassas Park 13,400 0 232,900 10,000 0 256,300

Subsidy - Stafford 73,400 0 0 0 0 73,400

Subsidy - Fredericksburg 31,600 0 0 0 0 31,600

Subsidy - Spotsylvania 139,400 0 0 0 0 139,400

Total Revenue 2,089,300 45,810,800 17,551,500 1,226,500 1,471,900 68,150,000

Personnel and Fringe Benefits 1,666,400 1,525,300 1,640,800 359,900 162,700 5,355,100

Contractual Services 156,900 14,875,400 8,246,000 803,900 212,200 24,294,400

Other Services 188,200 570,700 234,900 50,500 1,096,000 2,140,300

Materials, Supplies, Minor Equipment 14,400 25,800 23,300 6,800 1,000 71,300

Fuel 1,500 3,839,500 765,800 0 0 4,606,800

Capital 61,900 24,974,100 6,640,700 5,400 0 31,682,100

Total Expenses 2,089,300 45,810,800 17,551,500 1,226,500 1,471,900 68,150,000

FY 2016 Proposed Budget

Further Observations about Prince William’s Local Funding Shortage

• County’s 2.1% motor fuels tax revenue yield has

for many years been less than County’s

expenditure on bus and VRE (“the shortfall”)

• Until FY 2008, County supplemented the motor

fuels tax with a general fund appropriation,

allowing a fuel tax reserve to be built up

• Beginning in FY 2008, fuel tax reserve has been

tapped to cover the shortfall

Further Observations on Prince William’s Local Funding Shortage (continued)

• Fuel tax reserve exhausted after FY 2016, in part

because of dramatic drop in fuel prices

– Unlike the statewide fuel sales tax enacted by

General Assembly in 2013, the 2.1% motor fuels tax

has no protective floor

– Without a floor, the 2.1% motor fuels tax yield

mirrors fuel price changes

• If a supplement is not reinstated in FY 2017,

major service cuts will be unavoidable

The Projected Shortfall (Assuming Existing Service Levels

& “Normal” Fare Increases)

• Begins in FY 2017 when fuel tax reserve is fully

depleted

• Shortfall in FY 2017 is an estimated $6.95

million

• Annual shortfalls grow thereafter

– FY 2017 thru FY 2020 combined - $35.9 million

– FY 2017 thru FY 2021 combined - $45.8 million

Next Steps • Related to proposed FY 2016 budget

– Public comments compiled

– Management assesses whether changes are warranted,

and presents its final recommendations to the PRTC

Board at its April 2015 meeting

– Adopted actions take effect in July 2015

• Related to projected shortfall beginning in FY 2017

– Prince William Board makes policy decision that shapes

FY 2017 budget

– Public review process of changes as necessary

Timetable

Action Date

Public comment period ends March 17th

Public comments reviewed and final

recommendations prepared by March 26th

PRTC’s governing board adopts course of action April 2nd

If budget, fare increase, & Route One route

elimination are adopted as proposed, all take

effect in

July 2015