public meeting #2 -...
TRANSCRIPT
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La Entrada al Pacifico
February 19th, 2008 –
AlpineFebruary 20th, 2008 -
PresidioFebruary 25th, 2008 –
Midland/OdessaFebruary 26th, 2008 –
Fort Stockton
Public Meeting #2
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Purpose of This Public Meeting
•
Second of Three Rounds•
Meetings in:–
Alpine
–
Presidio
–
Midland/Odessa
–
Ft. Stockton
•
Purpose:–
Provide information on the study process
–
Gather feedback on the process and issues
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Meeting Format
•
Open House•
Presentation–
Project overview
–
Freight diversion analysis
–
Conceptual alternative evaluation
–
Where do we go from here
•
10 Minute Recess•
Comment Period
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Project Overview
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Project Overview
•
Data Collection•
Environmental Constraints Mapping
•
Freight Diversion Analysis•
Corridor Analysis
•
Economic Analysis•
Corridor Development Plan
•
Finance Plan•
Public Involvement/Outreach
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Three Step Study Process
Step OneData CollectionFreight Diversion Analysis
Step Two
Alternative Development and Analysis
Step Three
Corridor DevelopmentPlan
Public Involvement
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Project Study Area
Presidio
Marfa Alpine
Ft Stockton
Monohans
Odessa
Midland
Van Horn Balmohrea
Ft Davis
Pecos
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Why are We Doing this Study
•
To determine the volume of freight and overall vehicle volumes that can reasonably
be
expected in this study area.
•
To determine the level of improvements required to effectively invest transportation dollars.
•
To provide proactive planning for the roadway network and communities in the area.
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Summary of Results
• Freight Diversion to Presidio (Year 2030)–
Scenario
A
–
338 Trucks/Day Inbound
–
Scenario
B
–
739 Trucks/Day Inbound
• Based on These Numbers–
2 Lanes sufficient in southern segments
–
Existing infrastructure sufficient in the study area–
Urban areas will be evaluated in next phase
• Freight Diversion Analysis Looked at 2 Scenarios–
Scenario
A
–
All Mexico infrastructure completed
after the year 2030–
Scenario B
–
All Mexico infrastructure completed
prior to the year 2020
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Freight Diversion Analysis
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Freight Diversion Process
•
Identify key factors likely to influence future freight demand at the Presidio port-of-entry.
•
Develop a freight model through a risk analysis process to determine probable freight distribution.
•
Refine model assumptions to estimate a likely range of future freight demand given different Mexican infrastructure completion scenarios.
•
Converted freight to trucks for discussion purposes. Numbers can easily be converted to rail.
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Key Factors Considered
•
Diversion from Port of Los Angeles/Port of Long Beach–
Other US Ports (West Coast and Gulf Coast)
–
Other Mexico West Coast Ports•
Share of Freight at Topolobampo–
Lazaro Cardenas
–
Manzanillo–
Others
•
Diversion From Other Border Ports of Entry–
El Paso
–
Santa Teresa–
Others
•
Internal Mexico Freight Growth–
Maquiladora interviews from previous studies
–
Historical trends
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Freight Model/Risk Analysis Process (RAP)
• Detailed data collection process
• Assigned estimates and ranges (probability distributions) to each variable
• Gathered feedback from local Technical Advisory Committee members and expert sources
• Modified model results to reflect feedback
• Finalized draft results
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Freight Forecast Results
Looked at two scenarios for Mexico infrastructure completion
•
Scenario A
-
Mexico infrastructure completion after 2030
•
Scenario B
-
Mexico infrastructure completion prior to 2020
Mexico infrastructure completion includes:•
Improvements at the port of Topolobampo
•
Roadway and/or rail improvements through the Copper Canyon
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Freight Forecast Results Inbound Truck Volume at Presidio
2010 2020 2030Low Forecast Value 25 63 233Median (“Most Likely”) 47 195 739High Forecast Value 75 527 2224
Scenario A -
Mexico Infrastructure After 20302010 2020 2030
Low Forecast Value 25 43 37Median (“Most Likely”) 47 174 338High Forecast Value 75 501 1851
Scenario B -
Mexico Infrastructure Prior to 2020
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Freight Forecast Results
Scenario Comparison
–
“Most Likely”Includes 2010 2020 2030
Baseline• Internal Mexico Growth
44 82 152
Scenario
A
•
Internal Mexico Growth•
Diversion from other ports of entry
47 174 338
Scenario
B
•
Internal Mexico Growth•
Diversion from other ports of entry
•
Mexico Infrastructure Completion
47 195 739
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Other Factors That Could Influence Results
•
Mexico infrastructure completion date
•
Mexico’s emphasis on rail versus roadway
•
Potential route through Torreon and Camargo to Presidio via Mexico highway 67
•
Future competing ports (Puerto Colonet)
•
Others
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Overall Traffic Forecast Results
• Utilized the results of the freight diversion analysis
• Use of SAM model to forecast volumes in the study area
• Developed threshold table to:•
Identify areas of needed improvement
•
Provide a basis for improvements if forecast volumes are reached sooner than projected
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Level of Service
LOS DescriptionA Free flow operationsB Reasonable traffic flow conditions
C Near free flow operations, some minor flow restrictions
D Some minor congestionE Operation at roadway capacity
F Severe congestion, stop and go operation
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Roadway Threshold Table
LOSAverage Daily Traffic
2 Lane Roadway 4 Lane RoadwayA 1,800 13,400B 3,300 21,900C 5,900 31,400D 10,200 40,100E 17,500 44,500F > 17,500 > 44,500
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Alpine
Monohans
Odessa
Midland
Van Horn
Pecos
Presidio
Marfa
Ft Stockton
Ft Davis
Balmohrea
Crane
McCamey
LOS A or B
LOS C or D
LOS E or F
Year 2030LOS Results
Scenario BMost Aggressive
Alternative
67
6790
38510
10
20385
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Overall Traffic Forecast Results
Recommendation of Corridor NeedsFocus on Safety and Mobility Improvements
–
Mexico freight diversion does not warrant additional capacity improvements
–
4 lane widening not warranted in southern segments
–
Existing infrastructure sufficient in the study area
–
Urban areas will be evaluated in next phase
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Safety and Mobility Improvements
•
Passing Lanes
•
Clearance Issues
•
Roadway Geometric Improvements
•
Reliever Route Evaluations
•
Others
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Reliever Route Evaluation
•
Reliever Routes will be reviewed in the next phase of the study based on the need in urban areas
•
Environmental, engineering and mobility criteria will be evaluated
•
Several options will be proposed along with a no-build alternative
•
Further evaluation and NEPA compliance will occur in subsequent studies
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Alternative Analysis
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Conceptual Alternative Analysis
•
To identify routes to develop potential safety and mobility improvements
•
To prepare a proactive plan in the event that the threshold is ever
met.
•
This Study will not make the final determination of location, rather recommend improvement type and location
•
The No-Build Alternative will remain through the end of this study for any improvements proposed
•
Subsequent NEPA studies will determine final location and detailed impacts analysis
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Conceptual Alternative Analysis
Alternative Identification–
No-build
–
Upgrade Designated Corridor–
Other Alternatives
Determination of Feasibility–
Engineering
–
Environmental–
Mobility
–
Public Involvement
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Presidio
Marfa Alpine
Ft Stockton
MonohansOdessa
Van Horn
Ft Davis
Pecos
Midland
McCamey
Crane
Conceptual Alternatives
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Recommended Viable Alternatives
•
Propose to eliminate the new corridor alternatives
•
Reliever routes to be reviewed in the next phase of the study based on the need in urban areas
•
Rail alternative to be included in viable alternatives
•
No-build alternative will be included for all proposed improvements
•
Viable alternatives will be screened to the proposed routes for improvements
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Project Summary
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Summary of Freight and Traffic Results
•
Freight Traffic Numbers (Year 2030)–
Baseline –
152
trucks per day
–
Scenario A –
338
trucks per day
–
Scenario B –
739
trucks per day
•
Roadway Improvements–
Existing infrastructure is sufficient to handle forecasted traffic
–
Study to focus on safety and mobility improvements
•
Conceptual Alternative Screening–
New corridor alternatives eliminated
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Where Do We Go From Here?
Data CollectionPublic Meeting #1Freight Diversion AnalysisConceptual Alt. ScreeningPublic Meeting #2Viable Alt. ScreeningPublic Meeting #3Corridor Development PlanStudy Complete
Dec 2006Mar 2007Jan 2008Jan 2008Feb 2008May 2008Aug 2008Oct 2008Oct 2008
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Public Feedback is Vital to the Study
•
Three Rounds of Public Meetings•
Project Newsletter
•
Project Web-page:www.dot.state.tx.usKeyword: La Entrada
•
Project Hotline: 1-800-517-4652
•
Project Email:[email protected]
•
Written Comments To:Peggy Thurin, PE
Texas Department of Transportation17111 Preston Road, Suite 200
Dallas, Texas 75248-1232
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10 Minute Recess
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Comment Period
–
Names will be called from those who have filled out a comment card
–
The name of the following speaker will also be called
–
Please keep comments concise to provide an opportunity for everyone to speak
–
Once everyone has had a chance to speak an opportunity for additional comments will be provided
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La Entrada al Pacifico
February 19th, 2008 –
AlpineFebruary 20th, 2008 -
PresidioFebruary 25th, 2008 –
Midland/OdessaFebruary 26th, 2008 –
Fort Stockton
Public Meeting #2