public opinion and it’s effect on project planning
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Public Opinion and It’s Effect on Project Planning. A Systems Approach. Presenters. Anjali Patil Mike Dean W. Alex Beaver. Agenda. Introduction Theories & Practices The Factors of Public Opinion The Public Opinion Model Conclusion Round Table Discussion Questions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Public Opinion and It’s Effect on Project Planning
A Systems Approach
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Presenters
Anjali PatilMike Dean
W. Alex Beaver
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Agenda
Introduction Theories & Practices The Factors of Public Opinion The Public Opinion Model Conclusion Round Table Discussion Questions
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Introduction
Project- A specific, finite task to be accomplished Meredith and Mantel Today's public is better informed and better educatedLaws and regulations now mandate that the public be given opportunities to become involved in the planning process
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Introduction
Public involvement is a task all planners will have to participate in
Skills in communication, facilitation and partnering
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Introduction
Project planners must take the public’s opinion into account during project planning and implementation
Not accounting for public opinion could have drastic results, including cost over runs or project failure
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Public Participation
Describes integrating the public’s ideas within the implementation of projects, programs, plans and policies
At a minimum- seeks to inform and consult those affected
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Public Participation
Public Participation venues are also valuable data gathering tools for planners to assess the publics overall stance on the project, program, plan or policy
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Participation Types
Information DisclosurePublic ConsultationFunctional ParticipationInteractive ParticipationSelf Mobilization
Adapted from Petty (1995)
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Why Consult The Public?
Raise awareness of project impacts
Reach agreement on management and technical approaches Maximize benefit Reduce negative consequences- i.e.
delay
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Who’s Involved?
Public- can be directly or indirectly involved or affectedAll can influence the project outcome Individuals Families Public officials Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)
All are referred to as “Stakeholders”
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Project affected people- Individuals, Families Indigenous groups
Public sector- Local, State and National Governments
Stake-holders
Private sector- Financiers, Local Business, Industry associations
Advocacy groups NGOs Universities Research Centers
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Private Sector Disclosure
Often constrained by various political and commercial factors
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Political Factors
Government may determine the: Type Duration Site of the project
Government may remain involved during or after project completion
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Commercial Factors
Competitive SensitivityFinancial AccountabilityBudget may not account for Public ParticipationTime horizon may differ between stakeholders
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Good Business Sense
Public participation can generate positive financial and commercial benefits for the project sponsor
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Benefits of Participation
Reduced financial riskReduced direct costIncreased market shareEnhanced social benefits
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Public consultation to improve public
image ease negotiations
with government
Public consultation employed to
avoid conflict
Public consultation employed to
optimize project design
Future projects in country and internationally
Reduce risks (particularly from delays)
Cost effective mitigation and
operational measures
Increased market share
Costs avoided Lower continual costs
Increased Revenue Reduced Costs
Increased Profits
PROJECT SPONSOR
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Public ParticipationHas a Price
Time Project teams will
have to devote planning time in order to develop PP plans, hold public hearings, interpret data, and integrate comments into the project design
Time The time devoted to
planning Public Participation may pay for itself in the amount of time saved in delays propagated from public outrage and poor design concept
Cost Benefit
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Public ParticipationHas a Price
Money The previously
mentioned planning time and staff will have associated costs
Money Not developing an
adequate participation plan and integrating it into the project design can have catastrophic monetary consequences or project failure
Cost Benefit
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Public ParticipationHas a Price
Political Costs Stakeholders may
not embrace the project
Organizations will not reap social benefits
Political Benefits Stakeholders
embrace the project
Organizations benefit from positive public opinion and outlook
Cost Benefit
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Participation is the Law
NEPA (1969)CERCLA (1980)Forest Practices Act Local Planning and Zoning
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The Causes of Delay
EnvironmentBudgetInteragency coordinationLawsuits*Local controversy*Culturally sensitive*Politically sensitive
Poor designInexperienced employeesComplexityRegulatory limitationsDesign changeWeather
The list is limitless!
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Was the public involved? Were their concerns addressed?
Discovered during scoping meetings?
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GVEA Intertie Project1987 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Project Inception Funds appropriated by Alaska legislature. Project to be operational by the late 1990s.
GVEA begins permitting and engineering planning
Project begins to receive criticism from various groups. GVEA proposes 8th possible route in response to criticisms
BLM issues d aft report for the acceptance of the Intertie project. BLM provides EIS for the new project.
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GVEA Intertie Project1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Environmental group files an administrative appeal regarding proposed Intertie route
Fairbanks judge rules against administrative appeal. Alaska Supreme Court grants a stay on construction.GVEA states one years delay=$3.6M
Alaska Supreme Court requires the state to conduct additional studies. Federal courts uphold the BLMs EIS, ruling against the 1998 appeal. GVEA has now been seeking approval to begin construction for 6 years
Construction begins
Current projected costs for the project= $81M
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Scheduled FinishEarliest Start w/ Current Delays
With the current 6 calendar quarters worth of delays, this $250M project will not start commercial production until 4th quarter, 2005 at the earliest
Using GVEA numbers, this 1.5 year delay ~$18.75M`
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Pappas 2003
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Pappas 2003
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Theories
Many people have developed theories and methods for dealing and/or communicating with the publicAll come down to three principles Communicate Coordinate Cooperate
Implementation is the challenge
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Theories
BleikerSusskind and CruikshankSandman Risk= Hazard+Outrage
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Sandman’s Factors of Outrage
ChronicVoluntaryNot dreadedNaturalFamiliarNot MemorableKnowableTrustworthy
CatastrophicCoercedDreadedIndustrialNot familiarMemorableUnknowableUntrustworthy
SAFE RISKY
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The Factors of Public Opinion
EconomicEnvironmentalProject RiskSafetyQuality of LifeAestheticsConvenience
Public HealthGovernment InvolvementNIMBYLand Acquisition
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Systems Dynamics
We are all part of many systems Phone system Water system Traffic System
Many systems are intertwined
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Systems Dynamics
The key is to identify the models key concept such as a population, amount of an item or volumeThis central concept is known as “The Stock”The hydraulic metaphor
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The Hydraulic Metaphor
INFLOW
OUTFLOW
STOCK
Reproduced from Sterman
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The Hydraulic Metaphor
From the hydraulic metaphor, we can see that there are several parts of the systemAs the stock changes it can affect some or all of the other variables
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Systems Notation
STOCKINFLOW OUTFLOW
Source Sink
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Systems Dynamics
Attempts to predict the behavior of a system and the variables within that systemMore specifically, SD attempts to quantify change in the system over time
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Viewing Opinion as a Stock
Stocks do not have to be tangibleMemories and beliefs persist over time, generating inertia and continuity in our attitudesThe restaurant example
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Buzzwords
Radiation
Chemical
Environment
Value
Convenience
Safety
“Bad” “Good”
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Examples
Radiation and Power LinesThis same aspect of “bad” vs. “good” can be applied to the Factors of Public OpinionAs the public forms it’s opinions, there will ultimately be an overall public opinion
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SusceptiblePopulation
S
InfectiousPopulation
I
RecoveredPopulation
RInfection RateIR
Recovery RateRR
ContactRate c Total
Population N
Infectivity i Avg Duration ofInfectivity d
Sterman, 2000
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SIR Model Population Curves
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time (week)
Recovered Population R : Summer personInfectious Population I : Summer personSusceptible Population S : Summer person
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Winter SIR Model Population Curves
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Time (week)
Recovered Population R : Winter personInfectious Population I : Winter personSusceptible Population S : Winter person
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The Public Opinion Model
Simple, linear model
Accounts for the applicable Factors of Public Opinion as identified by the project planner
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The Public Opinion Model
OverallPublic
Opinion DisfavorFavor
A
B
C
X
Y
Z
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Rules
All factors deal with the public’s perception, whether the facts are right or wrongEach factor is independent Each factor is scored on a scale from
0 to 1
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North Pole Annexation
The city of North Pole distributed surveys to citizens of the FNSB to determine their desire to be annexed into the city of North PoleSurveys were returned to the city with comments
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North Pole Annexation
Each survey was scored according to the rules of the Factors of Public OpinionThe results of the scoring were then applied to the Public Opinion Model
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North Pole AnnexationSurvey Scores
Economic- .2Safety- .2Quality of Life- .2
Economic- .4Project Risk- .1Quality of life- .1Government Inv.- .5
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
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North Pole Annexation
OverallPublic
Opinion DisfavorFavor
ECONOMIC
SAFETY
QUALITY OFLIFE
ECONOMIC2
FEASIBILITY
QUALITY OFLIFE2
GOVERNMENTINV
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Results
Graph for Overall Public Opinion
0
-15
-30
-45
-60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time (Day)
Overall Public Opinion : Current Dmnl
Data Received
Begin planning period
Election Day
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North Pole Annexation
OverallPublic
Opinion DisfavorFavor
ECONOMIC
SAFETY
QUALITY OFLIFE
ECONOMIC2
FEASIBILITY
QUALITY OFLIFE2
GOVERNMENTINV
Decrease the Negative Economic Factor
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Decrease the “Negative Economic”
FactorGraph for Overall Public Opinion
0
-15
-30
-45
-60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time (Day)
Overall Public Opinion : TP30-1 DmnlOverall Public Opinion : Current Dmnl
Data Received
Re-evaluate PP Plan and gather new
data
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North Pole Annexation
OverallPublic
Opinion DisfavorFavor
ECONOMIC
SAFETY
QUALITY OFLIFE
ECONOMIC2
FEASIBILITY
QUALITY OFLIFE2
GOVERNMENTINV
Increase the Positive Safety factor
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Increase the “Positive Safety” Factor
Graph for Overall Public Opinion
4
-12
-28
-44
-60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time (Day)
Overall Public Opinion : TP30-2 DmnlOverall Public Opinion : TP30-1 DmnlOverall Public Opinion : Current Dmnl
Data Received
Re-evaluate PP Plan and gather
new data
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Model Limitations
Not the sole indicator of project success
Does not account for other dynamics within public opinion such as the spread of ideas and delay
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
Anthony Starfield
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Future Uses
Any instance where the publics feelings and/or reactions are going to affect the systemTerrorism, “panic flight” and the traffic system
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Conclusions
Public involvement will continue to be an integral part of project planningPublic involvement is the lawPublic involvement makes good business senseAdverse public opinion can have serious, negative consequences for your project
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Conclusions
The Factors of Public Opinion and the Public Opinion Model are a tool for evaluating public opinionProvides an opportunity to evaluate public opinion throughout the planning process and adjust your planUltimately, the model is a tool for making better management decisions
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TAKE A BREAK
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Round Table Discussion
LTC Victoria Bruzese
Bernardo Hernandez
Stacey Fritz
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Round Table Discussion
Do you agree with the Factors of Public Opinion
as identified in this discussion?
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Round Table Discussion
What was your impression of the model?
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Round Table Discussion
Do you feel the model would have utility in your
organization?
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Round Table Discussion
Do you feel a modification of the model could be useful to you and your organization?
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QUESTIONS?