Public opinion and migration: the impact of the crisis

Workshop on “Integration Policies in times of economic crises”16th International Metropolis conference Ponta Delgada

Georges LemaitreOECD15 September 2011

Public opinion in the recent crisis

• In 2009, there was a general feeling among governments that the situation was under control with regard to public opinion the right things had been done to transmit the message that migration was being restricted in response to the crisis.

• Then came the elections an electoral shift to anti- or restrictive immigration parties Was this crisis-related?

Public opinion and migration

• The general context: there is an underlying « natural » xenophobia (in the literal sense fear of, or discomfort with things foreign) but also a « natural » curiosity / tolerance about others.

• Can be affected by– Specific events (Netherlands killings)– Public discourse on migration / media coverage– General economic situation

• Relatively easy for unscrupulous persons to manipulate simple/simplistic views of the world are appealing

• The challenge for governments is to « manage » this and at the same time, develop sensible migration policy

• This is a permanent challenge, crisis or no crisis.

What influences public opinion about migration ?

Opinions on the importance of different selection criteria for immigration, 2002

Source: European Social Survey 2002.

Note: A higher opinion score indicates that the criterion is deemed more important. Weighted data. Countries are ranked according to the difference between scores for criteria "Having work skills the country needs" and "Close family living in the country".

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10Close family living in the country Having work skills the country needs Committed to the country’s way of life

The example of the United Kingdom – large sudden increase in inflows appear to have had a strong effect on

public opinion about migration.

5/14 IPSOS MORI Survey

The case of Sweden

• Extensive public debate about labour migration 2006-2008, in and out of Parliament

• Introduction of very liberal labour migration regime in December 2008

• Movements have increased, but appear to be under control.

• Yet members of an anti-immigrant party were elected to Parliament in late 2009 (?).

Public opinion and economic factors.

Relationship between unemployment rate and beliefs about the positive economic impact of immigration

Note: The “beliefs” variable is derived from replies to the question “Do you think immigration is good or bad for the economy?” Source: European Social Survey 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008; OECD 2010, Annual Labour Force Statistics.

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Unemployment rate (%)

Each point represents a result for a country in a particular year. Countries can be represented more than once.

A change in personal financial situation increases negative views, but … the baseline situation predominates

Hirings continue during a downturn, including hirings of immigrants. How do unemployed natives view this?.

The crisis and the integration of immigrants :This is the scenario to avoid the consequence of the

Swedish financial crisis of the 1990s

Employment-population ratios, Sweden, foreign- and native-born, 1987-2003.

The crisis and spending on integration

• Reaction of public opinion to migration is complex.

• The crisis has had an impact on public opinion but cuts now are probably more a response to budgetary problems than to public opinion.

• Justifying spending levels:– Migrants who enter during a recession have a much

harder time. – The playing field is not level Re-integration into

jobs of immigrants is more difficult in a slack labour environment.

– History has shown that poorer outcomes for immigrants makes further migration difficult to sell.

• Thank you for your attention.