PUBLICPUBLIC

OPINION OPINION Based upon materials from Based upon materials from

Roskin’s Text and Dr. Rosenberg Roskin’s Text and Dr. Rosenberg LecturesLectures

Public OpinionPublic Opinion Is citizens’ reaction to current, specific issues Is citizens’ reaction to current, specific issues

and events.and events. Plays a major role in modern democracy.Plays a major role in modern democracy. Is different from political culture.Is different from political culture. Includes an array of diverse attitudes that can Includes an array of diverse attitudes that can

change quickly.change quickly. Sometimes shows widespread ignorance.Sometimes shows widespread ignorance. Is often led or manipulated by interest groups.Is often led or manipulated by interest groups. Is a point of vulnerability for any government .Is a point of vulnerability for any government .

Scientific MethodScientific Method

Components of an AttitudeComponents of an Attitude

AffectiveAffective CognitiveCognitive BehaviorialBehaviorial

Types of VariablesTypes of Variables

Dimensions of and AttitudeDimensions of and Attitude

DirectionDirection Location Location IntensityIntensity CentralityCentrality SalenceSalence

SalienceSalience

Literally, that which jumps outLiterally, that which jumps out

The importance of given issues in public opinion The importance of given issues in public opinion

The degree to which categories and issues The degree to which categories and issues affect the public opinion of a countryaffect the public opinion of a country

Factors that Shape Public OpinionFactors that Shape Public Opinion

Social classSocial class EducationEducation RegionRegion ReligionReligion AgeAge GenderGender Ethnic groupEthnic group

National Council on Public PollsNational Council on Public Polls20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask

1.1. Who did the poll?Who did the poll?

2.2. Who paid for the poll and why was it done?Who paid for the poll and why was it done?

3.3. How many people were interviewed for the survey?How many people were interviewed for the survey?

4.4. How were those people chosen?How were those people chosen?

5.5. What area (nation, state, or region) or what group(teachers,lawyers, Democratic voters, etc.What area (nation, state, or region) or what group(teachers,lawyers, Democratic voters, etc.) were these people chosen from?) were these people chosen from?

6.6. Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?

7.7. Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates matter?Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates matter?

8.8. When was the poll done?When was the poll done?

9.9. How were the interviews conducted?How were the interviews conducted?

10.10. What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?

National Council on Public PollsNational Council on Public Polls20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask (cont.)20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask (cont.)

11. 11. What is the sampling error for the poll results?What is the sampling error for the poll results?

12. 12. Who’s on first?Who’s on first?

13. 13. What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?

14. 14. What questions were asked?What questions were asked?

15. 15. In what order were the questions asked?In what order were the questions asked?

16. 16. What about "push polls?"What about "push polls?"

17. 17. What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same thing? If they are different, What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same thing? If they are different, why are they different?why are they different?

18. 18. What about exit polls?What about exit polls?

19. 19. What else needs to be included in the report of the poll?What else needs to be included in the report of the poll?

20. 20. So I've asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should we report the resultsSo I've asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should we report the results??

Classic Opinion CurvesClassic Opinion Curves

SkewedSkewed A matter on which there are few doubters shows A matter on which there are few doubters shows

heavy opinion on one side, forming a “J-curve.”heavy opinion on one side, forming a “J-curve.” Unimodal or Bell-ShapedUnimodal or Bell-Shaped

On many issues, public opinion shows few people at On many issues, public opinion shows few people at the extremes and most in the moderate center.the extremes and most in the moderate center.

BimodalBimodal Forming a “U-curve,” the extremes are bigger than the Forming a “U-curve,” the extremes are bigger than the

center.center.

Common Methods of Common Methods of Collecting DataCollecting Data

TelephoneTelephone Mail Mail WebWeb In-PersonIn-Person

Additional Methods of Additional Methods of Collecting DataCollecting Data

CATI, CAPI, CASI: What's the Difference? ACASI (Audio Computer-Aided Self-Administered CATI, CAPI, CASI: What's the Difference? ACASI (Audio Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a computer-based Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a computer-based questionnaire, but the computer reads questions to the respondent over headphones. questionnaire, but the computer reads questions to the respondent over headphones.

Audio SAQ Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a paper questionnaire. Audio SAQ Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a paper questionnaire. CAPI (Computer-Aided Personal Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a CAPI (Computer-Aided Personal Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a

computer-based questionnaire. computer-based questionnaire. CASI (Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying using a CASI (Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying using a

computer based questionnaire. computer based questionnaire. CATI (Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer-administered telephone surveying CATI (Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer-administered telephone surveying

using a computer-based questionnaire. using a computer-based questionnaire. DBM (Disk-by-Mail) Self-administered surveying using a computer-based mail questionnaire. DBM (Disk-by-Mail) Self-administered surveying using a computer-based mail questionnaire. PAPI (Paper-and-Pencil Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a traditional PAPI (Paper-and-Pencil Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a traditional

paper questionnaire. paper questionnaire. SAQ (Self-Administered Questionnaire) Self-Administered surveying using a traditional paper SAQ (Self-Administered Questionnaire) Self-Administered surveying using a traditional paper

questionnaire. TATI (Touch-Tone-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer- (or voice-response) questionnaire. TATI (Touch-Tone-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer- (or voice-response) administered telephone surveying where respondents use touch-tone buttons to provide administered telephone surveying where respondents use touch-tone buttons to provide answers. answers.

TDE (Touch-Tone Data Entry) Same as TATI. TDE (Touch-Tone Data Entry) Same as TATI.

Source: Sawtooth News, Fall 1996.Source: Sawtooth News, Fall 1996.

Polling TechniquesPolling Techniques

Selecting a sampleSelecting a sample

Choosing the methodChoosing the method

Reaching the sampleReaching the sample

Asking the questionsAsking the questions

SampleSample

Those persons to be interviewed in a Those persons to be interviewed in a surveysurvey

A small fraction of a populationA small fraction of a population

Should be as representative -- rather than Should be as representative -- rather than as large -- as possibleas large -- as possible

Types of SamplesTypes of Samples

RandomRandom RDDRDD Opportunity or ConvenienceOpportunity or Convenience Purposive Purposive Snow BallSnow Ball

Presidential RatingsPresidential Ratings HoneymoonHoneymoon

High support for presidents early in their termsHigh support for presidents early in their terms

Rally eventsRally events Occurrences that temporarily boost the president’s supportOccurrences that temporarily boost the president’s support

The economy and foreign The economy and foreign policies policies

may also affect a president’s may also affect a president’s support.support.

Weissberg’s Linkages Between Public Weissberg’s Linkages Between Public Opinion and Popular SovereigntyOpinion and Popular Sovereignty

DirectDirect The majority who don’t know or care about much beyond their The majority who don’t know or care about much beyond their

immediate concerns.immediate concerns.

Operate within Constraints of Public OpinionOperate within Constraints of Public Opinion Consider the positions of the actors involved public and politicians and Consider the positions of the actors involved public and politicians and

use their positions as constraints.use their positions as constraints.

After the Fact ApprovalAfter the Fact Approval A minority who are among the better-educated and who follow more A minority who are among the better-educated and who follow more

abstract political concerns.abstract political concerns.

Public Approval of LeadershipPublic Approval of Leadership A few highly influential people who are involved in politics, often A few highly influential people who are involved in politics, often

professionally.professionally.

Edmund Burke’s Edmund Burke’s Topology of RepresentationTopology of Representation

DelegateDelegate Follow what the majority want.Follow what the majority want.

TrusteeTrustee Do what is best, even if there are political Do what is best, even if there are political

consquences.consquences. PoliticoPolitico

Evaluate what is best for the politician and Evaluate what is best for the politician and what is best for the public, recognizing the what is best for the public, recognizing the importance of re-election.importance of re-election.

Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls

Are they fair?Are they fair?

Help make public opinionHelp make public opinion May distort an electionMay distort an election Are not neutral in their impactAre not neutral in their impact Are not a substitute for careful analysis of issuesAre not a substitute for careful analysis of issues

Should America be governed by Should America be governed by polls?polls?