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Public Pensions Issues NCPERS Conference Bridget Early, Executive Director, NPPC September 17, 2018

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Page 1: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Public Pensions IssuesNCPERS Conference 

Bridget Early, Executive Director, NPPC

September 17, 2018

Page 2: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly
Page 3: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly
Page 4: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

What are the main causes of underfunding in state & local 

plans?• Inadequate Contributions• Poor Investment Returns• Changing Actuarial Assumptions• Lingering Effects from the Recession

Page 5: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Inadequate Contributions:Not Paying the ARC

• State plans reported receiving 92% of ARC in 2015

• Local plans reported receiving 94% of ARC in 2015

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Poor Investment Returns

But stronger investment returns recently…• Oklahoma Teachers Retirement System: 21%• Texas Teachers Retirement System: 12.9%• North Carolina Retirement Systems: 13.5%• Oregon Public Employee Retirement System: 15.3%

Page 7: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Changing actuarial assumptions: 

lower investment returns, longer mortality

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Lingering Effects from the Recession

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2018 Legislative Updates

• New Hampshire• Oklahoma• Colorado• Minnesota• Texas• Kentucky • New Jersey

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Pew Research Center 

Page 11: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Who to Watch For

• Pew Research Center • Moody’s • The Reason Foundation• Retirement Security Initiative 

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Page 13: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Contact InformationBridget Early

Executive Director National Public Pension Coalition

630.664.3948 (c)[email protected]

@ProtectPensions

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Public Pension Landscapeand TrendsAlex Brown

Research ManagerNational Association of 

State Retirement Administrators

NCPERS Public Pension Funding Forum

September 2018

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Public Pensions in the US

• ~14.5 million active (working) participants – 10 percent of the nation’s workforce

• ~11 million retirees and their survivors receive $295 billion in benefits annually

• $4.2 trillion in assets as of Q1 2018• Annual contributions = $200 billion

– Three‐quarters ($145 billion) from employers– One‐quarter ($55 billion) from employees

• Of 5,000+ public retirement plans, the largest 75 account for 80+ percent of assets and members

• Aggregate funding level = ~72%

U.S. Census Bureau, Public Fund Survey 

Page 16: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Change in Aggregate 

Public Pension Funding Level, FY 01 to FY 17

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Median Change From Prior Year in Actuarial 

Value of Assets and Liabilities

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Distribution of Public Pension Funding Levels, FY 17

Page 19: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Headwinds Facing Public Pension Plans

• Declining investment return assumptions• Slow payroll growth:

– Sluggish hiring– Tepid salary growth

• Higher required costs• Updated mortality assumptions to reflect longer life expectations

• Plan maturity

Page 20: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Declining Investment Return Assumptions

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Relative Change in Private and State and Local Employment, 07‐18

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 22: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Annualized Quarterly Change in Wage and Salary Costs for Private and State and Local Workers, 01‐18

Page 23: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Median Employee and Employer Contribution Rates for General Employees 

and Teachers, FY 02 to FY 17

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Median Cash Flow, FY 01 to 

FY 17

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Tailwinds Supporting Public Pension Plans

• Stabilizing investment returns• Stronger employer efforts to pay contributions• More aggressive liability amortization strategies

– More closed periods– Shorter periods

• More conservative benefit levels = lower long term costs

• Slow improvement in hiring and salary growth

Page 26: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Public Pension Fund Sources of Revenue, 1988‐2017

U.S. Census Bureau 

The typical public pension funding model is highly reliant on investment earnings.

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Investment Returns for Periods Ended 6/30/17 and 12/31/17

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Median and Avg. ARC/ADC Experience for 112 Plans, FY 01‐

FY 16

“State and Local Government Contributions to Statewide Pension Plans: FY 16,” NASRA 2018

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More Aggressive Amortization of Unfunded Liabilities

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Change in Actives and Annuitants

FY 01 to FY 17

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Median Annual Change in Payrolls

FY 02 to FY 17

Page 32: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Where Will Public Pension Funding Conditions Go From Here?

• Many plans will continue to struggle with key actuarial challenges– Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated

– Sub‐par investment returns, particularly in 2015 and 2016, yet to be fully incorporated

– Rates of public sector hiring and salary growth are not likely to return to historic norms soon

– Some employers still not contributing the full ADC

• The size of the challenge varies widely – Some plans have relatively small UALs and affordable costs– Other plans have UALs that are quite large and burdensome

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[email protected]• 202‐624‐8461• www.nasra.org

Page 34: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Public Pensions in the US

• ~14.5 million active (working) participants • 10 percent of the nation’s workforce

• ~11 million retirees and their survivors receive $295 billion in benefits annually

• $4.2 trillion in assets as of Q1 2018• Annual contributions = $200 billion

• Three‐quarters ($145 billion) from employers• One‐quarter ($55 billion) from employees

• Of 5,000+ public retirement plans, the largest 75 account for 80+ percent of assets and members

• Aggregate funding level = ~72%

U.S. Census Bureau, Public Fund Survey

Page 35: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Change in Aggregate Public Pension Funding Level, FY 01 to FY 17

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Median Change From Prior Year in Actuarial Value of Assets and Liabilities

Page 37: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Distribution of Public Pension Funding Levels, FY 17

Page 38: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Headwinds Facing Public Pension Plans

• Declining investment return assumptions• Slow payroll growth:

• Sluggish hiring• Tepid salary growth

• Higher required costs• Updated mortality assumptions to reflect longer life expectations

• Plan maturity

Page 39: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Declining Investment Return Assumptions

Page 40: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Relative Change in Private and State and Local Employment, 07‐18

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 41: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Annualized Quarterly Change in Wage and Salary Costs for Private and State and Local Workers, 01‐18

Page 42: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Median Employee and Employer Contribution Rates for General Employees and Teachers, FY 02 to FY 17

Page 43: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Median Cash Flow, FY 01 to FY 17

Page 44: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Tailwinds Supporting Public Pension Plans

• Stabilizing investment returns• Stronger employer efforts to pay contributions• More aggressive liability amortization strategies

• More closed periods• Shorter periods

• More conservative benefit levels = lower long term costs

• Slow improvement in hiring and salary growth

Page 45: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Public Pension Fund Sources of Revenue, 1988‐2017

U.S. Census Bureau

The typical public pension funding model is highly reliant on investment earnings.

Page 46: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Investment Returns for Periods Ended 6/30/17 and 12/31/17

Page 47: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Median and Avg. ARC/ADC Experience for 112 Plans, FY 01‐FY 16

“State and Local Government Contributions to Statewide Pension Plans: FY 16,” NASRA 2018

Page 48: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

More Aggressive Amortization of Unfunded Liabilities

Page 49: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Change in Actives and AnnuitantsFY 01 to FY 17

Page 50: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Median Annual Change in PayrollsFY 02 to FY 17

Page 51: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

Where Will Public Pension Funding Conditions Go From Here?• Many plans will continue to struggle with key actuarial challenges• Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated

• Sub‐par investment returns, particularly in 2015 and 2016, yet to be fully incorporated

• Rates of public sector hiring and salary growth are not likely to return to historic norms soon

• Some employers still not contributing the full ADC

• The size of the challenge varies widely • Some plans have relatively small UALs and affordable costs• Other plans have UALs that are quite large and burdensome

Page 52: Public Pensions Issues - NCPERS Docs/PPFF... · actuarial challenges –Lower investment return assumptions still to be incorporated –Sub‐par investment returns, particularly

[email protected]•202‐624‐8461•www.nasra.org