public perception in serbia of the icty and the national courts dealing with war crimes serbia, 2009

Public perception in Serbia of the ICTY and the national courts

dealing with war crimes

Serbia, 2009

StrategicPuls Group

Serbia | Croatia | Slovenia | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Montenegro | Macedonia | Albania

METHODOLOGYThe poll was conducted ‘face-to-face’ at respondents’ homes, with a representative sample of Serbian citizens of the age 16+

Target population: citizens of Serbia of the age of 16 and up. The population was defined based on the data from the 2002 census, vital statistics and data on migrations, as well as estimations of the number of population for 2006 by SMR-a za 2006.

Type of sample: three-phase, stratified, random representative sample. The sample was expanded with three groups of particular interest (citizens aged from 16 - 23, Albanians and Bosniaks/Muslims) in order to enable a reliable assessment of results for these population groups and their comparison with the average of the overall population of Serbia.

Size of sample: 1400 respondents

Sample error: marginal error (incidence 50%) +/- 3.25%

The survey was conducted from April 2009 to June 2009

Whenever possible, the new results were given in comparison with the results from previous surveys (2001 to 2006), that were conducted in cooperation of the TV B92 (2001) and the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights and the OSCE Mission to Serbia (2004 to 2006)

Ipsos Strategic Puls

Serbia | Croatia | Slovenia | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Montenegro | Macedonia | Albania33

POPULATION OF SERBIA BY NATIONALITY, CENSUS 2002

Total % Central Serbia

% Vojvodina %

Total 7498001 100 5466009 100 2031992 100

Serbs 6212838 82.86 4891031 89.48 1321807 65.05

Hungarians 293299 3.91 3092 0.06 290207 14.28

Bosniaks 136087 1.82 135670 2.48 417 0.02

Roma 108193 1.44 79136 1.45 29057 1.43

Yugoslavs 80721 1.08 30840 0.56 49881 2.45

Croats 70602 0.94 14056 0.26 56546 2.78

Montenegrins 69049 0.92 33536 0.61 35513 1.75

Albanians 61647 0.82 59952 1.10 1695 0.08

Slovaks 59021 0.79 2384 0.04 56637 2.79

Vlahs 40054 0.53 39953 0.73 101 0.00

Romanians 34576 0.46 4157 0.08 30419 1.50

Macedonians 25847 0.35 14062 0.26 11785 0.58

Bulgarians 20497 0.27 18839 0.34 1658 0.08

Bunjevci 20012 0.27 246 0.00 19766 0.97

Muslims 19503 0.26 15869 0.29 3634 0.18

Other 62840 0.83 18761 0.34 44079 2.18

Undecided 107732 1.44 52716 0.97 55016 2.71

Unknown 75483 1.01 51709 0.95 23774 1.17



International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia

- perceptions and attitudes -



To what extent do you think that you are familiar with the organization and work of the ICTY?

4330

15

29

27

35

21

2729

613

15

03

3

2005 2006 2009

Very well

Quite

Yes and no

A little

Not at all

72%

27%43%

57%

47%

50%



To what extent do you think that you are familiar with the organization and work of the ICTY?Base: Total target population

12 1423

2534

42

32

31

2325

15

1233 3

3

Albanians Serbs Muslims (Bosniaks)

No view

Very much

Quite

Yes and no

A little

Not at all

60%

49%35%

37%48%

65%



What is your view of the ICTY? Base: Total target population

3

3123

1

11

4550

7

28

2 8

30

44

22

48

15 17 1319

Total Albanians Muslims(Bosniaks)

Serbs

No view

Very negative

Mostly negative

Mostly positive

Very positive

76%

73%

8%

78%72%

14%

10%4%



Why do you have this view (give reasons)? Multiple response; Base: Total target population

44%

17%

12%

11%

8%

36%

8%

7%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

38

Convicts those who comitted war crimes

Fair, objective, impartial court

Has a positive impact on the society

Truth and justice will be achieved

Works well, efficiently

Unfair, partial, subjective

Convicts only the Serbs

Anti-Serb court

Do not trust international courts

Do not trust them; lies and deception

Illegal court, should not exist

Has no equal treatment for all nations

Political court/influenced by the US andforeign powers

Aquits the accused from other nations (Haradinaj...)

Harsh penalties, poor treatment of the Serbs

Incompetence, slowness

Positive view ofICTY (14% ofpopulation)

Negative veiw ofICTY (72% ofpopulation)



To what extent have the attitudes of the following people and institutions expressed in public influenced your attitude towards ICTY % of answers: influenced “pretty much + very much”

26%

29%

28%

26%

21%

37%

35%

28%

25%

25%

Attitudes and interpretations of national analysts (political analysts,

writers, intellectuals, etc.)

Reports and interpretations of nationalmedia/ journalists

Attitudes and interpretations ofnational legal experts

Serbian politicians

Representatives of governmentinstitutions in Serbia

Positive view ofICTY, 14%

Negative view ofICTY, 72%



Rank first three who influenced you the most?

63%

54%

41%

49%

43%

61%

49%

48%

46%

45%

Reports and interpretations of nationalmedia/ journalists

Attitudes and interpretations of nationallegal experts

Attitudes and interpretations of othernational analysts (political analysts,

writers, intellectuals, etc.)

Representatives of governmentinstitutions in Serbia

Serbian politicians

Positive viewof ICTY

Negative viewof ICTY



Do you watch TV recordings of ICTY trials? Base: Total target population

12 12 84

17 1921

7

24 23 23

18

26 26 26

54

21 221720

Total Serbs Muslims(Bosniaks)

Albanians

Never

Less than once amonth

Yes, once or twicea month

Yes, at least once aweek

Yes, at leastseveral times aweek



Frequency of watching TV recordings of ICTY trials and attitudes towards ICTY

2% 3% 4% 3% 1%5%

10% 12% 14%10%

20%

29% 29%35%

21%

71%55% 49% 32%

29%

2% 3% 7%17%

39%

Yes, at leastseveral times

a week

Yes, at leastonce a week

Yes, once ortwice a month

Less thanonce a month

Never

No view

Very negative

Mostly negative

Mostly positive

Very positive



Do you support or oppose to arresting and extraditing of Radovan Karadzic to the ICTY?Base: Total target population

23

93

79

18

62

1

2

68

156

1914

Total Muslims(Bosniaks)

Albanians Serbs

Does not know,has no opinion

Oppose

Support



Do you think that Ratko Mladić should be arrested and extradited?Base: Total target population

25

9787

20

64

1

1

69

112

13 11


Albanians Serbs

Doesn'tknow, has noview

No

Yes



What is your opinion about the cooperation of Serbia with the ICTY? Do you think...Base: Total target population

15

62

52

11

18

30

33

17

22

1

3

22

30

1

0

33

9

0

0 10

7 611

6


Serbs

Doesn't know, has no opinion

…there should be no cooperation,irrespective of the cost

…there should be no cooperation,because the cooperation so farbrought nothing to Serbia

…there should be cooperationonly to the extent necessary toavoid new sanctions

…there should be cooperation asit is a condition for EU accession

…there should be cooperation inorder to do justice

55%



15 15 17 15 15

2922

2726

18

41

33

3228

22

14

2519

1939

1 4 512

6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2009

Doesn't know

there should be no cooperation

there should be cooperation to theextent necessary to avoid newsanctions

there should be cooperation as thisis a precondition for Serbia'sreintegration into the world

there should be cooperation in orderto do justice

Because of justice

Utilitarian

In total for cooperation

84%70%

76%69%

Views about the cooperation of Serbia with ICTY, 2003 - 2009

55%



In your opinion, should Serbia cooperate with other countries of the former Yugoslavia in respect to war crimes?

66

94

78

65

19

2

520

154

17 15


Albanians Serbs

Does not know,has no opinion

No

Yes



Do ICTY proceedings contribute to the establishment of truth about what happened in the wars in the former Yugoslavia?

Base: Total target population

6

2720

3

35

52

53

32

54

9 23

59

612

4 5


Serbs

Doesn't know, has noopinion

No, because the realtruth will never reachthe general public

Partially

Yes, entirely



Do you think that in the proceedings against Milutinović, Šainović, Ojdanić, Pavković, Lazarević and Lukić the truth about what really happened in Kosovo was established, i.e. that there was organized persecution and killing of Albanians?

8%

51%60%

13%

54%

6%

4%

49%

37%43%38% 36%

SerbsAlbaniansMuslims(Bosniaks)

Total

Doesn't know

No, it was not proved, allevidence is false

Yes, it was proved to betrue



Do you think that the following indicted persons are guilty of crimes for which they were tried before the ICTY?

69%

64%

61%

8%

6%

18%

22%

24%

78%

81%

Milan Milutinović

Nebojša Pavković

Veselin Šljivančanin

Naser Orić

Ramush Haradinaj

No Yes



What was the reason for the acquittal of Ramush Haradinaj?Multiple response; Base: Total target population

51

9

2

37

10

2

33

12

2

7

44

21

6

1

2

1

14

80

13

17

7

Serbs

MuslIms(Bosniaks)

Albanians

Bias of the judges

Poor work of the prosecutor

Haradinaj's influence on thewitnesses

Lack of evidence

Serbia did not help the ICTYprosecutor

He is not guilty




Do you believe that witnesses and victims of non-Serbian nationalities who testify in the Tribunal, are telling the truth? Base: total target population

Yes11%

No58%

Don't know 31%



Do you think that ICTY judges are generally biased? Base: Total target population

Yes58%

No17%

Don't know25%



How does the ICTY treat the accused of the Croat, Albanian, Muslim, and Serbian nationality?


8 10 10 13

7463 61

1

1

1 1

70

7

10 11

8

1116 17

9

Albanian Croatian Muslim(Bosniak)

Serbian


ICTY equaly poorly tries theaccused of all nationalities

They are in a worse position thanaccused of other nationalities

Favours this nationality

Impartially

Nationality of the accused



How do you think that the trials before the ICTY affect the victims of war crimes and their families?

5 415

25

34 32

50

51

45 47

32 11

17 17

313


Albanians

Don't know

The victims and their families do notsee the ICTY as just, because thosewho made them victims are not triedor are tried too slowly and they aremuch too leniently punished

Trials before the ICTY give thevictims and their families the feelingthat justice is at least partially done

Trials before the ICTY give thevictims and their families the feelingthat justice is done



Do you think that the ICTY trials contribute to reconciliation process in the region?


14

66

50

11

71

933

76

1525

17 13

Total Albanians Muslims (Bosniaks) Serbs

Doesn't know,has noopinion

No

Yes



Do you think that ICTY archives should be accessible to everyone?Base: Total target population

59

74

59

32

19

10

20

29

2216

21

39

Total Muslims

(Bosniaks)

Serbs Albanians

Doesn'tknow, hasno opinion

No

Yes



Serbian judiciary dealing with war crimes

- perception and attitudes -



Do you consider the judiciary of the Republic of Serbia capable of trying cases which involve war crimes?

34 36

16

2

32 31

33

31

14 13

21

27

11 11

16

21

10 914

19


Albanians

Does not know

Not at all

Mainly no

Mainly yes

Yes, fully

67%

49%

33%



How would you rate the work of the War Crimes Prosecutor of the Republic of Serbia?

13 1217

34

24 24

25

32

40 39

46

23

12 12

934 4

1

18 8

27


Albanian

Don't know

excellent

very good

fair

poor

very poor36%

55%

42%

66%

56%

27%



Do you think that the War Crimes Prosecutor is independent or he is under political pressure?

39%38%

22%24%

4742

5353

3

11110

4

4

54.7

6

1055.4

153

Muslims(Bosniaks)

AlbaniansSerbsTotal

Does not know

Public pressure has an effect onhis decisions

He is affected by attacks byopposition politicians

Works under the influence ofNGOs

Works under influence of theauthorities

Decides by himself,independently of the authoritiesand public pressure



Are the judges of the War Crimes Trial Chamber independent or are they exposed to pressures?

24 22

3642

55 56

53 36

10 113

3

9 8 718


Albanians

Does not know - refuses

Public pressure has aninfluence on their decision

Work under influence ofNGOs

Work under influence ofauthorities

Adjudicate independentlyof authorities and publicpressure



What is your opinion of the judgments of Serbian war crimes court determining that indicted Serbs are guilty of war crimes?


53%

75%

54%57%

32%

25%

43%39%

14%

3%3%

AlbanianMuslims(Bosniaks)

SerbsTotal

Does not know

I do not believe that theproceedings were just and do notbelieve in what was determined inthe judgment

I believe that the court reached thejudgment based solely onevidence and accept what hasbeen determined



In your opinion, do the trials before ICTY / national court contribute to the reconciliation in the region?

6 9

35

48

54

36

5 7

ICTY National

Don't know

No, because thereal truth will neverreach ordinarycitizens

Partly

Yes, completely

Do trials for war crimes before ICTY / national court help establish the truth about events in the wars in former SFRY?

14

33

71

45

1522

ICTY National

Don't know

No

Yes



Where should the alleged perpetrators of war crimes committed in the wars in the former Yugoslavia be tried?

8 5

55

84

2425

19

10

46 49

9

1

7 6

13

3

3 4

1 1

3 3

0 19 8

3 0


Albanians

Does not know

Should not be tried

Should not be tried, it happened longago, one should turn toward the future

It is important that they are tried, it isnot important in which country, i.e.institution

Each state should try their ownnationals (Serbia the Serbs, Croatia theCroats etc)

In the country where the crime iscommited

In the Hague



Would you agree to testify before war crimes courts in...

4629 24 23 23

53

62 76 77 77

110

1 1 1

Serbia ICTY Bosnia &Herzegovina

Kosovo Croatia

Don'tknow

No

Yes



Should war crimes trials continue in Serbia after the ICTY closes down?

46 45

86

64

36 37

8

1

18 18

6

35


Albanian

Don't know

No

Yes



Do you think there is a need for establishing a body, in addition to the courts, that would work on determination of facts on crimes during the war (such as, for example, a regional Commission for Truth and Reconciliation, or similar body)?

41 40

66

40

35 35

21

2

24 2513

58


Albanians

Don't know

No

Yes



The role of the media



Does the public receive sufficient information from the media on war crimes proceedings?

30 27

37 44

1814

3 3

13 13

ICTY Serbian court

Do not know, has no opinion

Media give too much attention to theseproceedings

Media give attention to this subject butwithout entering the essence of theproblem

The public should be much betterinformed than was the case to date

There is enough information in themedia, so who wants can be informed

55%58%



In what way do the media report on war crimes proceedings?

16 17

35 34

23 22

107

16 20

ICTY Serbian court

Does not know, has no opinion

All media report with bias

Most report with bias and a smallernumber objectively

Most report objectively and a smallernumber are biased

All report objectively51% 51%



Is the media presence of the representatives of ICTY sufficient for one to be aware of the work and activities of the ICTY?

46 44 54 48

53 55 46 51


Albanians

No

Yes

Is the media presence of the representatives of the Serbian Prosecutor for War Crimes sufficient for one to be aware of the work and activities of his Office?

5641

56 42

4358

43 58


Albanians

No

Yes



Who do you believe the most when it comes to information on trials for war crimes?

27 26

11

518

4 3

54 53

ICTY Serbian court

No one

Officials of political parties

National court officers

Representatives of ICTY

Serbian government officials

The media



To whom do the media grant more attention, i.e. to whom do they focus more – to perpetrators or victims of war crimes?

34313233

12182120

25

372626

3

2

55

1

133 25

111314

AlbaniansMuslims(Bosniaks)

SerbsTotal

Don't know

Much more to victims

Slightly more to victims

Equally to perpetrators andvictims

Slightly more toperpetrators

Much more to perpetrators

53%



Awareness and attitudes regarding events in the wars of 1992 – 1995



Have you heard of the following event? % of citizens who have heard of the event

93

77

92

64

70

57

53

85

78

68

54

51

49

30

85

72

67

47

55

45

27

78

71

68

52

58

44

33

88

77

71

57

57

54

31

Croat forces killed many Serb civilians during the"Storm" and "Flash" operations

A large number of Muslim/Bosniac civilians werekilled in Srebrenica

In Sarajevo many civilians were killed by snipers

Paramilitary units and JNA killed civilians inVukovar

Sarajevo was over a thousand days under seige

Albanians were expelled and killed in Kosovoeven before the bombing

In Bijeljina in 1992 paramilitary units from Serbiakilled civilians

2009

2006

2005

2004

2001



Do you believe that this really happened? % of citizens who believe that it really happened

90

53

51

50

48

31

30

82

40

24

57

48

17

14

85

40

23

58

50

18

14

78

48

28

60

50

20

18

86

38

33

64

46

28

17

Croats killed many civilians in the "Storm" and"Flash" operations

Sarajevo was over one thousand days undersiege


Many civilians were killed in Sarajevo by snipers

A large number of Muslim/Bosniac civilians werekilled in Srebrenica

Albanians were killed and expelled from Kosovoeven before the bombing

In 1992 in Bijeljina paramilitary units from Serbiakilled civilians

2009

2006

2005

2004

2001



Was the event an inevitability of war or a war crime for which the perpetrators should answer? % of citizens who consider it a war crime

90

53

51

50

48

31

30

75

16

18

38

37

11

14

75

18

17

43

42

12

14

70

18

21

41

43

14

83

12

21

41

39

16

13

Croats killed many civilians during the "Storm"and "Flash" operations

Sarajevo was over one thousand days undersiege


Many civilians were killed in Sarajevo bysnipers

A large number of Muslim/Bosniac civilianswere killed in Srebrenica

Albanians were killed and expelled fromKosovo even before the bombing

In 1992 in Bijeljina paramilitary units fromSerbia killed civilians

20092006200520042001



THANK YOU!

public perception in serbia of the icty and the national courts dealing with war crimes serbia, 2009

Documents

citizens of serbia

overall population of

population groups

number of population

size of sample

type of sample

respondents sample error

total target population60i57he