Pupil Schools Provision Programme 2013-18

Presentation to Children’s Services Scrutiny Committee

11 July 2012

Slide 1

Office of National Statistics Data Salford Population Change

Comparison ONS Mid Year Estimates and Succesive Population Projections - Salford Source: ONS

150

170

190

210

230

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270

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310

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

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2016

2018

2020

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2026

2028

2030

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2034

Year

Num

ber o

f Per

sons

(000

s)

2003 Projection

2006 Projection

2008 Projection

2010 projection

Mid Year Estimates

Slide 2

The Office of National Statistics data

ONS indicates an overall 58000 population growth for Salford 2010 – 2030

ONS predictions are based on birth and death data plus migration trends

ONS methodology for predicting migration trends has improved to ensure greater reliability

The growth mirrors national trends, Salford has the second highest growth predicted for Greater Manchester

Comparison between 2008 predictions and 2010 predictions show a significant increase

ONS population data prediction now correlates with primary school roll numbers and trends

Slide 3

Comparison with AGMA

Table 7: Projected Total Population Change, Greater Manchester Districts.

Area

Projected Total PopulationCumulative Change (Number of

people) Cumulative Change (Percent)

2010 2015 2020 2030 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30

Bolton 270 282 294 315 12 24 45 4.4 9.0 16.7

Bury 185 193 201 215 8 16 30 4.1 8.5 16.3

Manchester 470 507 535 583 37 65 113 7.8 13.8 23.9

Oldham 221 227 234 246 7 13 25 2.9 6.1 11.3

Rochdale 206 210 215 224 5 10 19 2.2 4.8 9.1

Salford 230 246 262 288 16 31 58 7.0 13.6 25.1

Stockport 285 293 302 320 8 17 35 2.7 6.0 12.3

Tameside 218 226 235 251 8 17 33 3.9 8.0 15.3

Trafford 217 228 240 261 11 23 44 4.9 10.6 20.4

Wigan 310 320 331 349 11 21 39 3.4 6.9 12.5

Greater Manchester 2,611 2,732 2,850 3,052 121 239 441 4.6 9.1 16.9

Source: ONS 2010 based sub national population projections.

Slide 4

Graphs of Salford pupil trends since 1981 and our prediction to 2018

Number On Roll Trend - Primary Schools

15000

16000

17000

18000

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20000

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1981

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2003

2005

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2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year

NO

R

Pupil Numbers

Schools Capacity

Slide 6

• 500 additional places were created for September 2011, 700 additional places are being created for September 2012 in 23 schools

• This has been achieved in the majority of cases through the utilisation of existing school spaces i.e. converting non classroom space into classrooms

• However, we are installing temporary classrooms on 5 schools this year, only 1needed in 2011

• Started to identify the options for the expansion of schools and held a seminar for head teachers and chairs of governors to put forward their proposals.

• Working closely with neighbouring LAs is maintained to ensure cross boundary pressures are acknowledged

• Continuing to work closely with the dioceses and schools through the Stakeholder Steering Group to ensure good communication and wider ownership of the challenge.

What are we doing

Slide 8

Proposed Programme Governance Structure

Cabinet

Mayoral Working Party

EstatesBoard

Children’s ServicesLeadership Team

StakeholderSteering Group

Slide 10

Options for Expansion

• Bring back all available classroom space in schools for school use

• Expand existing schools with extensions

• Re-commission disused schools including those vacated through BSF programme

• Thru-schools in Secondary Buildings – until we need secondary places

• Acquire adjacent buildings to schools and create Key Stage on adjoining site

• Acquire other existing LA buildings for School use

• Use all LA owned brownfield sites to build new schools

Slide 12

Map of the new 12 planning areas against the ward boundaries

Slide 15