purchasing managers' indices august (flash) vs. …...4 broadcom 7,280 5 qualcomm 7,190 6 sk...

23
Chart 1 49.6 48.5 53.6 51.8 52.1 49.3 48.6 53.8 52.0 52.9 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 Japan France Germany Europe USA PMI July August Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. July 2016 Markit Economics Above 50 = Growth Below 50 = Contraction

Upload: others

Post on 19-Mar-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 1

49.6

48.5

53.6

51.8

52.1

49.3

48.6

53.8

52.0

52.9

46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0

Japan

France

Germany

Europe

USA

PMI

July August

Purchasing Managers' IndicesAugust (Flash) vs. July 2016

Markit Economics

Above 50 = GrowthBelow 50 = Contraction

Page 2: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 2 U.S "Purchasing Managers" Indices

Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Markit Economics & ISM

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

PMI

Page 3: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 3Eurozone "Purchasing Managers" Index

Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Markit Economics

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

PMI

Page 4: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 4Japan "Purchasing Managers" Index

Diffusion Index, >50 = Growth

Nomura/JMMA

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PMI

Page 5: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 5U.S. Electronic Equipment Book/Bill Ratio

3-Month Average

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Page 6: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 6U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders & Shipments

Computer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Orders

Shipments

$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

Page 7: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 7U.S. Electronic Equipment Order & Shipment Growth

Computer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

ShipmentsOrdersZero Growth

3/12 Rate of Change

Page 8: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 8

U.S. Electronic Equipment Inventories vs. Orders

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ratio Inventories/Orders

Page 9: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 9 U.S. Defense Capital GoodsOrders & Shipments

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

Jun

Nov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug Ja

nJu

nN

ov Apr

Sep

Feb

Jul

Dec

May Oct

Mar

Aug

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

s

Orders

Shipments

$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

Page 10: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 10 U.S. Defense Capital GoodsBook/Bill Ratio

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

Jan

Aug Mar Oct

May

Dec Ju

lFe

bSe

pA

prN

ov Jun

Jan

Aug Mar Oct

May

Dec Ju

lFe

bSe

pA

prN

ov Jun

Jan

Aug Mar Oct

May

Dec Ju

lFe

bSe

pA

prN

ov Jun

Jan

Aug Mar Oct

May

Dec Ju

l

1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016

3-Month Avg.

Page 11: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 11 U.S. Aircraft & Parts Shipments

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Non-Defense Defense

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

US$ Billion

Page 12: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 12 U.S. Aircraft & Parts Orders

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Non-Defense Defense

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

US$ Billion

Page 13: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 13DMASS - European Semiconductor

Distribution Industry

http://dmass.com/ 8/16

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Other France UK Italy Germany

Euro Millions

+2.2%

Page 14: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 14 DMASSEuropean Semiconductor Distribution Industry

548 575

178 182143 141135 13772 68

178 161

567 596

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2Q'05 2Q'06

Euros (Millions)

GermanyItalyUKFranceIsraelNordicOther

Georg Steinberger: "What we are seeing from a regional perspective is a weakening market in the UK, more production transfer from Nordic to Eastern Europe and strong growth in some low-cost manufacturing countries in Eastern Europe. There is a lot of movement but, on the positive side, Germany returns a healthy, organic growth and so does Italy. The question is 'are we seeing now the end of a long positive streak for distribution or is it just a normal slowdown'? I would tend to believe that in spite of a slowdown, the opportunities for organic growth are still excellent in the mature economies.“ 8/16

DMASS 6/2016; http://dmass.com/

"Growth rate for semiconductor distribution slows down through a quiet Spring quarter. Germany and Eastern Europe stay ahead, UK and Nordic decline.”

Page 15: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 15

Smartphone Unit Shipments to End UsersWorld

Gartner Dataquest 8/16 & prior reports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

s

Units (Millions)

Page 16: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 16 World Smartphone Sales 2Q’16

Gartner 8/16

2Q’16 TOTAL: 344.4 Units

22.3%

12.9%

8.9%

5.4%

4.5%

46.0%

SamsungAppleHuaweiOppoXiaomiOthers

2Q’15330.3 M

Page 17: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 17World Smartphone Sales 2Q’16

by Operating System

Gartner 8/16

2Q’16 TOTAL: 344.4 Units

86.2%

12.9%

0.6%

0.1%

0.2%

AndroidiOSWindowsBlackberryOthers

Page 18: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 18 N American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Book/Bill Ratio

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

B/B (3-month Avg)

SOURCE Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Internationalhttp://www.semi.org

Production EquipmentNot Chips

Page 19: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 19 N American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Shipments & Orders

SOURCE Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Internationalhttp://www.semi.org

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Shipments

Orders

$M (3-Month Average)

Page 20: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Rank Maker 1H’161 Intel 26,0712 Samsung Electronics 19,6663 TSMC 13,0034 Broadcom 7,2805 Qualcomm 7,1906 SK Hynix 6,4467 Texas Instruments 5,8518 Micron 5,8499 Toshiba 4,93210 NXP 4,58911 MediaTek 3,93012 Infineon 3,62013 ST 3,29914 Apple 2,91015 GlobalFoundries 2,81016 Renesas 2,78117 Nvidia 2,59218 Sony 2,26019 UMC 2,17720 AMD 1,859

Top 20 Total 129,115

1H’16 Semiconductor Sales Leaders including Foundries ($M)

IC Insights 8/16

Page 21: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 21 Mobile DRAM Revenues 2Q'16

DRAMeXchange 8/16

61.5%

25.1%

11.4%

1.0% 0.8%

Samsung

SK Hynix

Micron Group

Nanya

Winbond

2Q'16 Total: US$3.929 Billion

$3.353 B1Q'16

Page 22: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

Chart 22 Mobile DRAM Market Share by Region 2Q'16

DRAMeXchange 8/16

86.7%

11.4%

S Korea

America

Taiwan

1.9%

Page 23: Purchasing Managers' Indices August (Flash) vs. …...4 Broadcom 7,280 5 Qualcomm 7,190 6 SK Hynix 6,446 7 Texas Instruments 5,851 8 Micron 5,849 9 Toshiba 4,932 10 NXP 4,589 11 MediaTek

U.S. GDP Growth% Change vs. Prior Quarter (Chained 2009 $)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1/95

3/95

1/96

3/96

1/97

3/97

1/98

3/98

1/99

3/99

1/00

3/00

1/01

3/01

1/02

3/02

1/03

3/03

1/04

3/04

1/05

3/05

1/06

3/06

1/07

3/07

1/08

3/08

1/09

3/09

1/10

3/10

1/11

3/11

1/12

3/12

1/13

3/13

1/14

3/14

1/15

3/15

1/16

www.bea.gov/national/