puyallup school district trends & projections
DESCRIPTION
Puyallup School District Trends & Projections. Presented to the Puyallup School Board W. Les Kendrick January 2009. Outline. Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region Demographic trends affecting enrollment Projections. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Puyallup School District Trends & Projections
Presented to the Puyallup School Board
W. Les KendrickJanuary 2009
Outline
Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region
Demographic trends affecting enrollment
Projections
Puyallup Enrollment TrendP223 Enrollment OCTOBERExcludes Chief Leschi Students and Full-Time Running Start Students
15,58216,199 16,488 16,823 17,190 17,518 17,916
18,446 18,684 18,83019,355 19,648 19,825 19,958
20,486 20,762 20,885 20,794
4.00%
1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 1.90% 2.30%3.00%
1.30%0.80%
2.80%
1.50%0.8% 0.7%
2.6%
1.3%
0%0.6%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Enrollment Percent Change
Puyallup Elementary Enrollment P223 EnrollmentExcludes Chief Leschi Students
8,866 9,075 9,038 9,116 9,279 9,303 9,442 9,646 9,835 9,915 10,111 10,129 10,159 10,217 10,408 10,618 10,625 10,686
2.40%
-0.40%0.90%
1.80%0.30%
1.50%2.20% 2.00%
0.80%2.00%
0.2% 0.3% 0.6%1.9% 2.0%
0.1% 0.6%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Enrollment Percent Change
Puyallup Junior High EnrollmentP223 Enrollment Excludes Chief Leschi Students
3,5493,751
4,065 4,150 4,241 4,3104,467
4,618 4,670 4,6774,838
5,043 5,079 5,078 5,122 5,109 5,182 5,056
5.7%
8.4%
2.1% 2.2% 1.6%
3.6% 3.4%
1.1%0.1%
3.4%4.2%
0.7% 0.0%0.9%
-0.3%
1.6%
-2.5%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Oct-91
Oct-92
Oct-93
4-Oct
Oct-95
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-
00
Oct-
01
Oct-
02
Oct-
03
Oct-
04
Oct_
05
Oct-
06
Oct-
07
Oct-
08
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Enrollment Percent Change
Puyallup High School EnrollmentP223 EnrollmentExclude Chief Leschi Students and Full Time Running Start Students
3,1673,373 3,385
3,557 3,6703,905 4,007
4,182 4,179 4,2384,406 4,476 4,587 4,663
4,956 5,035 5,078 5,052
6.5%
0.4%
5.1%
3.2%
6.4%
2.6%
4.4%
-0.1%1.4%
4.0%
1.6%2.5%
1.7%
6.3%
1.6%0.9%
-0.5%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Enrollment Percent Change
Pierce County Public Schools Enrollment Trend (October)
113,610 115,489 117,302 120,131 121,911 123,616 124,518 125,601 127,518 128,078 128,924 128,079 128,563 128,730 129,750 130,025
2.20%1.70% 1.60%
2.40%1.50% 1.40%
0.70% 0.90%1.50%
0.4% 0.7%
-0.7%0.4% 0.1%
0.8%0.2%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Enrollment Percent Change
Puyallup’s Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment(October P223 Enrollment)
14.51% 14.57% 14.65% 14.58% 14.70% 14.92% 15.01% 14.99% 15.18% 15.33% 15.38% 15.58% 15.93% 16.13% 16.10% 16.02%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pierce County Districts: Change in Enrollment2007 - 2008
675107
42413833
153
-6-10
-47-50-57-62
-88-91
-133-135
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000
Steilacoom
Orting
Chief Leschi
Fife
Dieringer
Clover Park
Tacoma
Bethel
Clover Park Technical College
Carbonado
Eatonville
Sumner
University Place
Bates Technical College
Franklin Pierce
Puyallup
White River
Peninsula
Net Change in Enrollment: 275
Key Demographic Trends to Watch
Births and the K-12 Population
Population Growth in the District
New Housing Growth
Projected Pierce County BirthsMy forecast based on birth rates and the State population forecast for Pierce County
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000
Births 10,174 10,052 10031 10085 10278 10469 11,139 11011 11234 11394 11611 11793 11978 12149 12321 12452
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Projected Births:2007-2015
Next year’s cohort
Puyallup District Population ForecastBased on PSRC Neighborhood Forecast for Areas in and Around the Districtand the Latest Population Estimates for the District
015,00030,00045,00060,00075,00090,000
105,000120,000135,000
Based on PSRC NeighborhoodForecasts
94,922 113,000 117,000 127,000 139,400
Census 20002008 OFM
Estim.2010 2015 2020
County K-12 Public School Forecast Based on Projected Changes in the Age 5-19 Population
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
K-12 Public Schools (PierceCounty)
125,601 128,653 130,025 131,149 137,782 146,021
Age 5-19 County Forecast (OFM) 161,653 166,430 172,300 173,789 177,959 185,959
2000 Census
20052008
Estimate2010 2015 2020
Back of the Envelope CalculationsWhere is Enrollment Headed in 2020?
Calculations Based on Projected Change in the County K-12 Public School PopulationForecasts for 2020
Based on ProjectedCurrent Constant % Downward % Gains in County Pop.
County Public School K-12 Population 130,000 146,000 146,000 146,000Puyallup Share of K-12 16.0% 16.0% 15.7% 16.8%Puyallup Enrollment 20,794 23,360 22,922 24,528
What about next year? Things to watch
Housing market is a big factor
Virtual schools?
Private schools and the economy
New Single Family Homes Sold in the Puyallup School District: 2006-2008Source: New Home Trends
577
317
117
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2006 2007 2008*
*As of December 5, 2008
New Single Family Homes Currently for Sale in the Puyallup School DistrictSource: New Home Trends
324
844
1094 1088
883
1307
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008
Enrollment Forecast
Low, Medium & High
Low, Medium & High Headcount ForecastOct-2009
20,794 20,621 20,811 21036
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Oct-08 Low Medium High
Alternative Projections 2009-2020Excludes Chief Leschi and Full-Time Running Start
22544
23805
24895
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
Low Growth 20,794 20621 20601 20652 20868 21042 21274 21497 21779 22059 22241 22321 22544
Medium (Recommended) 20,794 20811 20978 21162 21516 21824 22141 22443 22803 23155 23402 23534 23805
High Growth 20,794 21036 21355 21688 22191 22639 23024 23384 23798 24193 24467 24612 24895
O ct_08 O ct_09 O ct_10 O ct_11 O ct_12 O ct_13 O ct_14 O ct_15 O ct_16 O ct_17 O ct_18 O ct_19 O ct_20
Summary of the Enrollment Picture as of Today
Enrollment is projected to remain flat and possibly decline in 2009. Enrollment might also be down or show very little growth in 2010.
Long range enrollment to 2020 is still projected to grow due to increases in county births and housing and population increases in the District.
Enrollment in 2020 is projected to be somewhere between 22,500 (Low) and 24,900 (High).