pv asia pacific conference 11 2011 sinke

Cost reduction in PV: directions for R&DCost reduction in PV: directions for R&Dredefining the roles of public and private research for the solar age

Wim SinkeECN Solar Energy & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform

www.ecn.nl

ContentsContents

The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified

Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches

PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011

Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D

Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull

OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be

• How much is needed for impact?

• At what cost?

• Under which conditions ?

The challenge quantified


• Under which conditions ?

From 10% global electricity to >25% of global energy :

How much is needed for impact?


3 ~ >>>>30 TWp

(now 0.05 TWp)

0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less)

At what cost (price)?


From generation cost to system price (or back)not a trivial exercise

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) determined by:

turn-key system price ($/Wp)• module price + Balance-of-System price

(power-related part & area-related part)


energy output (kWh/Wp·yr)• primarily dependent on annual insolation• influenced by system quality and design, partial shading, etc.

operation & maintenance cost and replacement/repair ($/Wp·yr)

cost of capital:• depreciation time (yr)• interest rate / Return on Investment required (%)

0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less):

At what cost (price)?


typically

1 $(€)/Wp(now ≥2 € /Wp)

At what cost (price)?The value of efficiency (example)

Moderate efficiency modules(efficiency X%)

High efficiency modules(efficiency 2X%)

modules (0,6 $/W)

area-related BoS (0,2 $/W)


(efficiency X%)

modules (0,4 $/W)

area-related BoS (0,4 $/W)

power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)turn-key system price 1 $/Wp

power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)

Sustainability:

• Supply chain security (and price stability)• Cradle-to-cradle approach• Low (zero, or positive) impact:

Under which conditions?


• Low (zero, or positive) impact:• manufacturing• installation• operation• decommissioning

• Public acceptance

MiaSolé

ContentsContents







Best efficiencies laboratory cells


L. Kazmerski

NREL, 2011

Cell & module technologies (flat plate )

Commercial: thin films

Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons

Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)


Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)

Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar

Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts

(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts

Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf

Cell & module technologies (flat plate )

Commercial: thin films

Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons

Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)

Trends:Trends:• new cell and module architectures• high(er) efficiencies

Trends:Trends:


Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)

Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar

Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts

(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts

Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf

Trends:Trends:• increasing scale• differentiation according to application

Trends:Trends:• applications of nanotechnology• synergy with other fields of technology

Cell & module technologies (concentrator)

Commercial: multi-junction III-V semiconductors (and silicon)

Module efficiencies 25 ~ 30%

Abengoa/Concentrix

(FhG-ISE)


Lab: super-high efficiency concepts

Module efficiencies: too early to tell

Evolution of technology portfolio and module efficiencies (IEA PV Roadmap, 2010)


PV technology shares

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator

Concentrator PV; emerging technologies

Thin-film CIGS

PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201117 21-11-2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050

Thin-film CdTe

Thin-film Si

Wafer-based Si

Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates

PV technology shares

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator

Concentrator PV; emerging technologies

Thin-film CIGS

gigawatts

megawattsinstalled

PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201118 21-11-2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050

Thin-film CdTe

Thin-film Si

Wafer-based Si

Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates

terawattsinstalled

gigawattsinstalled

System approaches

• (k)Wp to GWp• stand-alone, grid-connected, minigrid• BAPV, BIPV, ground based, and more• single-purpose or multifunctional• PV-only or hybrid (PV-T, PV-wind, etc.)• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking


• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking• modular or central design• and more

19

Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar

Diversity: blessing or curse?

Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets

Curse:


• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is

best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward

20

Diversity: blessing or curse?

Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets

Curse:


• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is

best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward

Overall:• diversity has brought us where we are and will bring us

where we want to be

21

ContentsContents





Passing the valleys of deathPassing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull


Europe’s joint approach:Strategic Energy Technology Plan

EuropeanEuropeanIndustrialIndustrialInitiativesInitiatives

(EII’s)(EII’s)

EuropeanEuropeanEnergyEnergy

ResearchResearchAllianceAlliance(EERA)(EERA)


(EII’s)(EII’s)(EERA)(EERA)

Monitoring and steering:Monitoring and steering:

SETSET--PlanPlanInformationInformation

SystemSystem(SETIS)(SETIS)

the Solar Europe Industry Initiative(EPIA & European PV Technology Platform)

COSTCOSTREDUCTIONREDUCTION

volume+

LARGELARGE--SCALESCALEDEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT

market deployment

R&D + demonstration


+innovation

INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION

grid+

builtenvironment

DEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT

&

INDUSTRYCOMPETITIVENESS

R&D + demonstration

PV system integration

smart grids & integrationof other renewables

SolarSolar Europe Europe IndustryIndustryInitiative (SEII)Initiative (SEII)

Development targets SRA2

Today 2020 2030Long term potential

Typical turn-key price for 100 kWpsystem (2011 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

2.5 1.5 1 0.5


100 kWp commercial roof system, ItalyPR of 80%, yield of 1440 kWh/kWp25 year lifetime, discount rate of 6.5%Current and 2020 values consistent with SEII KPIs

Typical electricity generation costs, Southern Europe (2011 €/kWh)

0.19 0.10 0.06 0.03

Typical system energy payback time, Southern Europe (years) 0.5-1.5 <0.5 <0.5 0.25

General scientific & technological challenges forPV cells & modules (selection)

High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• maximize absorption; minimize recombination losses• apply efficient concentration (high X, light trapping)• utilize full spectrum (multi gap, multi band, multi carrier, photon

conversion, and more)


Low cost• high efficiency (leverage at all levels)• low materials cost (ultra-thin layers, low-cost materials)• high-throughput processing (vacuum & non-vacuum)

Sustainability• minimum materials & energy use; (design for) recycling• alternative materials (CIS � CZTS, Ag � Cu, etc.)

General scientific & technological challenges forPV systems (selection)

High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• sun tracking• high availability (system reliability)• low electrical losses (DC/AC conversion, cabling, mismatch, etc.)• (self) cleaning


Low cost• high efficiency• low materials cost• fast preparation & installation, low maintenance, replacement & repair

Sustainability• “low BoS” designs, low-energy, abundant materials• (design for) recycling

General scientific & technological challenges forsystem integration (selection)

High performance• electrical integration: avoid having to switch down or off• physical integration: optimize system lay-out, select optimum sites

Low cost• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration


• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration(see e.g. prof. Martin Braun’s (FhG-IWES) and dr. Tim Meyer’s (DTMC))

• physical integration: standardisation, prefab, integrated fixtures, click-on/click-off, etc.

Sustainability• electrical integration: optimize energy technology portfolio• physical integration: low-impact & durable materials (design for)

recycling, low intrusion, good aesthetics

ContentsContents







• Don’t oversell (grid parity on consumer level in one country is not enough)

• Quality first (TW-scale use requires professional quality, not just bottom-low prices: “Trust comes by foot and leaves by horse”)

Develop bridging business (& system) concepts

From incentive-driven to self-sustained markets


• Develop bridging business (& system) concepts

• Commercial companies build up in-house R&D capacity

• Industry sets the agenda in major R&D programs

• Governments (EC and countries) want to see near-term a nd nearby results

From technology push to market pull


nearby results

• Role of public research shifts:

from multi-parter joint development projects to more emphasis on:

• open innovation models• bilateral competitive R&D• developing high-risk high-potential options (beyond industry scope)

ContentsContents





Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to business pullfrom technology push to business pull


Outlook

• Cost reduction: factor 5

• Efficiency enhancement: factor 2


• Volume increase: factor 100-1000

pv asia pacific conference 11 2011 sinke

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system price powerrelated

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