pv battery learning curve and future market penetrationbauf/pv/talks/160622_pv... · f....
TRANSCRIPT
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
PV Battery Learning Curve and
Future Market Penetration
Content1. Learning rates LR
2. LR PV versus Li-Battery
3. Target Marktes «autark houses»
4. Trends and grid costs
Franz Baumgartner
ZHAW, IEFE, Winterthur, Switzerland
www.zhaw.ch/~bauf see also www.researchgate.net
invited talk, EUPVSEC Munich, 23.6.2016, No 6CO.12.3
Ref. L. Kazmerski, WCPSEC Kyoto, Japan 2014
US 1956
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Start of the Industrialisation 100 years ago
Henry Ford: Production & Labor Innovations
Ford was dedicated to the production of an efficient and reliable automobile that would be affordable for everyone; the result was the Model T, starting in October 1908.
Practice techniques of mass production revolutionize industry
• use of large production plants
• standardized
• interchangeable parts
• and the moving assembly line
Mass production cut down on the time required to produce an automobile, which allowed costs to stay low. (in 1918 US market share about 50%).
Slide 2.
y = 26439 x -0.207
Learning Rate
LR=1-2-0.207 = 0.13900
3600
10 100 1000 10000$
(in 1
958$
)
thousand units cumulative shipments
Fords T-Model cost reduction1909
1923
1918
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Definition Learning Rate LR
Slide 3.
S. Nowak et al; IEA, PVPS, Technology Roadmap, Edition 2014G.C. Nemeth, 2006, Energy Policy (34), p3218; discusse LR 0.17 and 0.26 C. Harmon, 2010, IASA Laxenburg Austria, Interim Report IR-00-014, Experience Curves of Photovoltaic TechnologyP. Verlinden, CTO Trina, EUPVSEC 2016, parallel session IEA PVPS (CdTe data)
ITRPV 2015
y = 5.4822x-0.32
LR=1-2-0.32 = 0.20 cr. Si
cr-Si TechnologyIAEA, PV PS Technology Roadmap 2014
1976
2016
20240.33$/W
CdTe LR=0.16
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Markes are more divers PV module as component of the PV System
Slide 4.
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Cost breakdown of components PV module versus Li-battery
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
PV Module Li Battery
Shar
e of
cos
ts
Electronics/DivMech PackagingCell processingCell material
Slide 5.
Lithium-ion Batteries for Hybrid and All-Electric Vehicles: the U.S. Value ChainMarcy Lowe, Saori Tokuoka, Tali Trigg and Gary Gereffi, October 5, 2010,Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University
see also Althaus, IWS, 2014-03 for LiNiMnCoO Batteries
cathodeanode
electrolyteseperatorhousing
poly Si
wafering
6 inch poly cr. Si Module, 0.51$/Wp prize (20% margin?)2016 june, http://pvinsights.com/
glassAl frame
lamination
battery mgt.
batterypackagemounting
junction box
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Elements of the BATTERY learning curve
Slide 6.
ProductionTechnology
Li-Ion
MarktesGrowth 50%?
20 GWh/a
Costs270$/kWh
Investment Decision
in new GWh Fabs
Cheaper EV’snew productsPV home batt.
Material, labor costs
Prod. Yield
Quality
CO2
Oil, Gas
Autarky
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
2020 TESALs full capacity to be reached
Slide 7.
Web visited Juni 2016 - https://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory
Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory in June 2014 outside Sparks, Nevada, and we expect to begin cell production in 2017. By 2020, the Gigafactory will reach full capacityand produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. 35 more than 35 GWh of battery cells and 50 GWh of battery packs, but CTO JB Straubel, 2015
PAN
ASO
NIC
Feb 2016http://electrek.co/2016/02/24/
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Investments in battery fabs
Investment cumulated till 2015, Ref. Roland Berger, 2016 and others
• $ 1.60 bn / 500 000? EVs (35GWh/a)/ Panasonic Tesla(Ref: Feb. 9, 2016, www.businessinsider.com; Model S @ 90kWh, Model 3 @ 60kWh); ? 5$/kWh invest cells over 10 years depr.
• $ 1.50 bn / 420 000 Evs (?10GWh) / ASEC Nissan/Renault
• $ 0.85 bn / 400 000 EVs / LG Chem GM, Daimler
• $ 0.50 bn / (25GWh/a) /Daimler Kamiz /(LG Chem) Mercedes(Ref: Mar. 3, 2016, A. Rueckemann, Daimler, Bad Stafelstein, OTTI
Slide 8.
http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/08/gm-li-ion-battery-cost-per-kwh-already-down-to-145/
Tesla Li-Giga FabUS Nevada, Feb 2016
Li Battery LeasingGermany 20167.6€cent/km or 0.43€/kWh
OK for battery cellsnot for battery pack
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Learning Curve Li-Ion Battery Packs
Slide 9.
100
200
400
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
$/kW
h
GWh cum.
2007
2017
2015300$/kWh1.2Mio EV
[1] B. Nykvist, M. Nilsson; «Rapidly Falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles»,Stockholm Environment Institute & KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm; Nature Climate Change; 9th Feb 2015
EVs batterymarket leadersLR=0.06 [1]y = 357.31x-0.087
LR=1-2-0.087 = 0.06
LR = 0.10LR = 0.15EPRI US, 2015W. Hofmann, 2015
2025; 1/4 cars EVeach 40kWh
30 Mio x 40kWh=1200GWh/a
20205Mio EV
2025
50 000 German PV home batteries 5kWh
0.25GWh
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Intersolar 2016, Munich, A3, Bayern-Innovativ
• 400€/kWhincl. BMS
• Cycles2500 =10a*250
• Estimate:400/2500=0.16€/kWh+inverter0.06=0.22€/kWh
• +installation?Slide 10
.
PAN
ASO
NIC
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Markets ”Maximise PV Self Consumption”Autarky from April to October?!
7 MWh /a
electricity consumption
heat pump, hot water, EV since 2015
16.4 kWp Since 2014 PV
17 MWh/a Production
1985 the house was builtHeating monovalent heat pump eart. 2008 heat pump Scroll-Comp.2012 hot water and earth grounded heat transfer= 243%-PEB-EFH
Untersiggenthal/AGwww.staerk-erdwaerme.ch
Heat PumpMuKEn 150m2
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Measurements in Aug 2015 – sunny day 4.6kWh Li-Speicher, 8kWp PV, lake of Constance, D
12 F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, electrosuisse, 151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse
Cafe
Self cons.cons./PV
Standard5 5000kWh
20% to 35%1.1 - 1900kWh
Heat pumphot water
+16%+900kWhel
Heat pumproom heat.
-
BatterykWh/kWp
+22%1200kWh
E-vehicle2000kWh10 000km/a
+9% to +25%500-2000kWh
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
PV Battery Systems - Germany
Slide 13.
EUPVSEC Sept 2015, Plenary
PROFITABILITY AND LCOE OF SMALLSOLAR BATTERY SYSTEMS—THE GERMAN CASE
C. Stegnera*, P. Luchscheidera, J. Bogenriedera, Reinhard Germanb, Christoph Brabeca, Camus,
ZAE Bayern e. V., Renewable Energies, Haberstrasse 2a, 91058 Erlangen, Germany
bFAU Erlangen-Nürnberg, CS 7, Martensstrasse 3, 91058 Erlangen, Germany
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
PV home battery – cost estimation per kWh
Slide 14.
per kWh , per kW costs2016
costs2020
costs2025
Li-battery + BMS @ 6kWh 300 € 197 € 122 € housing 100 € 66 € 41 € power electronics 100 € 66 € 41 € Total hardware 500 € 328 € 204 €Overhead, software, sales (20%) 200 € 66 € 41 €components price at factory gate 700 € 394 € 244 €site installation 200 € 163 € 133 € total costs incl. Installation (-5%/a) 900 € 557 € 377 €economic rating cap. v. PVn / per kWh 0.36 € 0.22 € 0.15 €
Single Family house solution: PV Li-battery + Power Electronics – inverter + installationF. Baumgartner, June 2016 in Germany
Typ. 850€/kWh Li-Battery 6kWh+ Inverter (price hardware for installer)remaining Battery price about 700€/kWh (about twice of Tesla Powerwall 350$/kWh pricing)
annual full cycles 250, 10 years of operation; component -10%/a
PV Inverter 150€/kW <20kW, LR 0.19% from 1990 to 2013; www.agora-energiewende.de , FhG ISE, 059/01-S-2015/EN; Publication: February 2015Li-Battery, cost reduction 8%/a, P. Nyquist, Nature, Feb 2016
0.08€/kWhPlug inAC batterysupermarket,internet
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Could we reach these promises?
• German Subsidy1500€ für eco22.5kWp PV, 2kWh
• 10 000 cyclesin 10 year warranty1 000 cycles/a ???
• > 17 Cent/kWhab 5475€
Slide 15.
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Low Carbon Market $600 bn in 2014
Slide 16.
$140 bn
$80 bn
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Nov 2015
$250 bnin 2025
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
PV Battery and Cost Outlook - Switzerland
8.8 8.2
36
157
3.20.8
0
5
10
98
18
12
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 CH H4household
2014 CH ZH H4household
2016 PV + Batt 2025 PV + Batt 2035 PV + Batt off-grid?
Rp/
kWh
H4
Hau
shal
tsku
nd
EnergieAbgabenNetz
PV Production-5%/a CAGR
Grid& winter
Battery kWh-10%/a CAGR
BRD 2016
see F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, ETG EE Jahrestagung, Electrosuisse151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Outlook - Management on LR could fail!!Global Management typical think BIG – What is to BIG?
• A Decade ago: AMAT PV thin film silicon – larger jumbo sizes ??
• Technology should count not only financial issues
What we learnt!
• Management never fail, but technology might
• Management of to take the RISCS and responsibility!
What I hope for a fast global CO2 reduction – PV powered EVs!
• TESLAS Giga Fabs Batteries will not fail (ramp up, quality…A123!)
• EV Model S, X and 3 will have the success of Fords model T
• Than others must follow! – PV batteries not the main driver but helpSlide 18
.
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Thank you for your attention
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