pv in brazil: market status, opportunities and challenges · 21 source: ccee/absolar, 2018. last...

PV in Brazil: Market Status,

Opportunities and Challenges

Rodrigo Pedroso

Member of the Board of Administrators

(West-Center and Federal District)

LAS/ANS SYMPOSIUM 2018

Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) – 29/08/2018

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1. Represent and promote the solar photovoltaic sector in Brazil and abroad

• Federal, state, municipal governments, companies, media, NGOs and others.

2. Monitor the development of the Brazilian solar photovoltaic market

• Reports on installed capacity.

• Market intelligence on the main business opportunities (notices, projects,

auctions, amongst others).

• Promotion of activities and events relevant to the sector.

3. Serve as the sector meeting ground and focal point for debates

• Periodical assembly meetings.

• Strategic Work Groups.

• Meetings with authorities and invited experts.

Together we can make PV thrive in Brazil! Join us!

www.absolar.org.br/processo-associativo.html

[email protected] | +55 11 3197 4560

About Us

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Check out our Institutional Video:

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Our Members

Last update: 07/08/2018.

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Our Members


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Our Members


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Our Members


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Our Members


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Our Members


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Global PV Market Status• Total cumulative installed capacity in 2017: 402,5 GW (+98 GW in 2017).

• PV investments booming globally.

• Markets and end-consumers being empowered by solar PV.

Evolution of PV Installed Capacity Worldwide

Source: IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global Photovoltaic Markets, 2018

Price History of Si PV Cells

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Source: Snapshot of Global PV Markets, IEA PVPS, 2018.

• Brasil joined the top 10 countries in added solar PV capacity in 2017!

The cumulative installed capacity in Brazil was 1,1 GW in 2017

Global PV Market Status

Source: G. M. Tiepolo, PhD Thesis, PUCPR, 2015.

Solar Resource in Brazil

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Socioeconomic Benefits

• Reduces electricity costs for the population, companies and government.

• Attracts and promotes new private investments.

• Creates local, qualified and distributed jobs.

• Fosters the development of a new local value chain.

• Increases local, regional and national economic development.

Environmental Benefits

• Clean, renewable and sustainable electricity source.

• No solid, liquid or gas emissions during operation.

• Contributes to countries goals on reduction of GHG emissions.

• Low maintenance, no moving parts and no noise during operation.

Strategic Benefits

• Diversifies the generation portfolio of the electricity matrix.

• Increase share and role of renewable energy.

• Reduces transmission and distribution losses.

Benefits of PV Solar for Brazil

Biomass

14.640 MW

8,7% Wind Power

13.135 MW

7,8%

Mineral Coal

3.718 MW

2,2%

Natural Gas

13.000 MW

7,7%

Other Fossils

147 MW

0,1%

Oil

9.859 MW

5,9%Hydropower

102.178 MW

60,8%

Solar PV

1.307 MW

0,8%

Wave Power

0,05 MW

0,00003%

Nuclear

1.990 MW

Imports

8.170 MW

4,9%

Bazilian Electricity Sector: Operational Installed Capacity (MW)

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Source: ANEEL/ABSOLAR, 2018. Last Update: 02/08/2018.

The Electricity Sector

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Distributed Generation PV (MW) 0,4 1,8 4,2 13,8 62,0 182,6 410,4

Centralized Generation PV (MW) 6,7 6,7 15,4 26,3 27,8 965,3 2.065,3

Total (Distributed + Centralized) 7,1 8,5 19,6 40,1 89,8 1.147,9 2.475,7

7,1 8,5 19,6 40,1 89,8

1.147,9

2.475,7

0,0

500,0

1.000,0

1.500,0

2.000,0

2.500,0

3.000,0

Inst

all

ed

Ca

pa

city

(M

W)

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) in Brazil and Projection for

2018

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Source: ANEEL/ABSOLAR, 2018. Last Update 01/08/2018.

PV Market Overview

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Low-Income Housing: Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida, Juazeiro (BA).

Residencial Building: House, São Gabriel do Oeste (MS).

Public Building: Palácio dos Bandeirantes, São Paulo (SP).

Commercial or Industrial Building: Data Center, Uberlândia (MG).

Solar PV Power Plant: Fernando de Noronha (PE).

PV Distributed Generation

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ANEEL – REN 482/2012 – Electrical Energy Compensation System

• Net-metering: inspired by the successful international model used more than a decade ago (e.g. USA).

Solar PV Distributed Generation

Source: ANEEL.

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PV Distributed Generation

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 07/2018

NEM Installed Capacity per year (MW) 0,4 1,4 2,4 9,5 48,2 120,6 139,0

Cumulative NEM Installed Capacity (MW) 0,0 0,4 1,8 4,2 13,8 62,0 182,6

Total 0,4 1,8 4,2 13,8 62,0 182,6 321,6

0,4 1,8 4,213,8

62,0

182,6

321,6

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

Inst

all

ed

Ca

pa

city

(M

W)

Net-Metering (NEM) Photovoltaic (PV) Installed Capacity (MW) in Brazil

19Adopted and ratified! Adopted, pending ratification Have not adopted

ICMS Agreement Nº 16/2015

• Authorizes states to exempt ICMS over solar PV net-metering.

• All the 27 states have already adopted.

• 25 states have already ratified the benefit internally.

• AM and SC still need to publish Decrees or State Laws in order to guarantee the benefit.

Law Nº 13.169/2015

• Exempt PIS/COFINS over solar PV net-metering.

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Source: ABSOLAR, 2018.

DG PV Taxation

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Solar PV Power Plant – 150 MWp , in Bom Jesus da Lapa (BA).

Solar PV Power Plant – 185 MWp, in Pirapora (MG).

Solar PV Power Plant – 86 MWp, in Areia Branca (RN).

Solar PV Power Plant – 225 MWp, in Ituverava (BA).

PV Centralized Generation

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Source: CCEE/ABSOLAR, 2018. Last Update: 01/08/2018

LER 2014 1º LER 2015 2º LER 2015 LEN A-4 2017 LEN A-4 2018

Contracted (MW) 554,0 822,1 921,1 574,0 806,6

Cumulative Contracted (MW) 564,0 1.386,1 2.307,2 2.881,2 3.687,9

Average Price (US$/MWh) 88,0 85,0 78,0 44,3 35,2

554,0

822,1 921,1

574,0

806,6

564,0

1.386,1

2.307,2

2.881,2

3.687,9

88,0 85,0

78,0

44,3

35,2

0,0

60,0

120,0

180,0

0,0

500,0

1.000,0

1.500,0

2.000,0

2.500,0

3.000,0

3.500,0

4.000,0

Ave

rage

Pri

ce (

US

$/M

Wh

)

Co

ntr

act

ed

(M

W)

Large-Scale PV Power Plants in Electricity Auctions


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LER 2014 1º LER 2015 2º LER 2015 LEN A-4 2017 LEN A-4 2018

Windpower 142,30 - 203,50 108,00 67,60

Solar PV 215,10 301,80 297,70 145,68 118,07

Hydropower - - - 181,63 198,12

Biomass - - - 234,92 198,94

145,68

118,07

0

100

200

300

400

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce (

R$

/MW

h)

Historical Average Price in Electricity Auctions by Energy Source in Brazil

Average selling price of PV solar

is lower than the price by

biomass and hydro sources!


BA PI MG CE PE SP PB RN TO

Operational 443,9 270,0 321,0 - 10,0 120,0 - 116,0 -

In Construction 208,2 - 192,0 132,0 75,0 30,0 108,0 - 89,1

Construction to be Started 142,0 419,9 169,9 390,0 243,9 170,0 27,0 - -

Total 794,1 689,9 682,9 522,0 328,9 320,0 135,0 116,0 89,1

794,1

689,9 682,9

522,0

328,9 320,0

135,0 116,0

89,1

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

800,0

900,0

1.000,0In

sta

lle

d C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

Installed Capacity (MW) and Status of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Centralized Generation by

State

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Source: ANEEL/ABSOLAR, 2018. Last update 01/08/2018.


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Integration of Renewables1. Renewable Resources Forecasting (e.g.: sun, wind, hydro and others):

• Combination of: historical data, real-time measurements and computermodeling.

2. Portfolio Effect (within one project or mutiple projects in different regions)

• Among complementary sources: take advantage of the complementarity of renewable sources, developing hybrid projects from different resources (solar, biomass, hydro, wind power and others).

• Geographical portfolio of projects from the same source.

3. Electricity Exchange / Transmission Lines:

• Maximize the benefits of the National Interconnected System (SIN –Sistema Interligado Nacional).

• Strengthening of the transmission lines + improvements in the operation, to optimize the exchange between the different electrical regions.

4. Flexibility:

• Based on hydro power + other sources + electricity storage.

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Solar Resource Measurement and Forecasting

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, 2018.

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Portfolio Effect Based on Geographic Dispersion

Intra-Source Locational Portfolio Effect

Source: LEW et al., 2013.

Solar Photovoltaic Generation Record

Source : ONS, 2018.

On the 14th of July 2018 a new record of daily average (24h) solar PV generation

was registered (219 MWaverage) on the Northeast Subsystem with a Capacity

Factor of 28%.

Solar PV Installed Capacity: 781 MW31


Source: GTM, CAISO, FIRST SOLAR

Ancillary Services• A study from CAISO showed the ability of solar PV inverters in

contributing to the electrical system stabilization.

• Dynamic power factor.

• Frequency regulation as efficient as gas power plants.

• Reactive power control absorption capacity.

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Renewable Generation: Firm and Dispatchable• “The plunging cost of storage, along with that of wind and solar power,

appears to have crossed a new threshold after a tender conducted by a major US energy utility suggests “firm and dispatchable” renewables are now cheaper than existing coal plants.”

Source: Renew Economy. Plunging costs make solar,wind and battery storage cheaper than coal. Acessado em 25/05/2018.

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Source: SEBRAE, 2017.

Solar PV Value Chain

Thank you for your attention!

Special thanks to American Nuclear Society for the kind

invitation!

Rodrigo Pedroso

Member of the Board of Administrators

(West-Center and Federal District)+55 11 3197 4560

[email protected]

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pv in brazil: market status, opportunities and challenges · 21 source: ccee/absolar, 2018. last...

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