pvrc webinar may 2011 k9la selected topics in propagation 15m/12m/10m long path carl luetzelschwab...

PVRC Webinar May 2011 K9LAPVRC Webinar May 2011 K9LA

Selected Topics In Selected Topics In PropagationPropagation

15m/12m/10m Long Path15m/12m/10m Long Path

Carl Luetzelschwab K9LACarl Luetzelschwab K9LA

[email protected]@arrl.net


What We’ll CoverWhat We’ll Cover

• 10m long path10m long path– My first experienceMy first experience– K2ARO 10m long path dataK2ARO 10m long path data– Skeds with JH3DPBSkeds with JH3DPB

• Recent openingsRecent openings• Apply East Coast knowledge to other parts Apply East Coast knowledge to other parts

of the USof the US• Apply 10m knowledge to 15m and 12mApply 10m knowledge to 15m and 12m• SummarySummary

Quick Cycle 24 UpdateQuick Cycle 24 Update


Solar Min Between Cycle 23 and 24, and Cycle 24 Ascentin terms of sunspot number

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Su

nsp

ot

Nu

mb

er

Cycle 24 monthly mean

Cycle 23 monthly mean

smoothed

Solar Min Between Cycle 23 and 24 and Cycle 24 Ascentin terms of 10.7 cm solar flux

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201110

.7 c

m

So

lar

Flu

x

monthly mean

smoothed

Latest smoothed sunspot number is 23.2 for October 2010

Extrapolate to April 2011 – about 40

Latest smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux is 85.3 for October 2010

Extrapolate to April 2011 – about 95


10m Long Path10m Long Path


An Interesting Night . . . .An Interesting Night . . . .

• Spring of 1980 when I lived in the Spring of 1980 when I lived in the Dallas/Ft Worth areaDallas/Ft Worth area

• Heard a DL on 10m CW around 11:00 PMHeard a DL on 10m CW around 11:00 PM

• His signal peaked towards the southwestHis signal peaked towards the southwest

• Kind of weakKind of weak

• My first introduction to 10m long pathMy first introduction to 10m long path


An Interesting Day . . . . An Interesting Day . . . .

• CQ WW SSB 1986CQ WW SSB 1986

• Early morningEarly morning

• One of the D/FW locals called in on One of the D/FW locals called in on the 2m netthe 2m net

• VS6DO was on 10m via long pathVS6DO was on 10m via long path

• Great signal, easy to workGreat signal, easy to work


I Was All Fired UpI Was All Fired Up

• But then we moved back northBut then we moved back north

• I wasn’t back on the air until late 1988I wasn’t back on the air until late 1988

• Read Jerry N6AV’s (SK) article “10 Meter Read Jerry N6AV’s (SK) article “10 Meter Long Path” in the January 1989 issue of Long Path” in the January 1989 issue of the DX Magazinethe DX Magazine

• It was slanted towards the West Coast, It was slanted towards the West Coast, of course, but that got me going againof course, but that got me going again


Lots of Good DataLots of Good Data

• Ran into Gus K2ARO on 10m in late Ran into Gus K2ARO on 10m in late 19911991

• He had lots of log data on 10m long He had lots of log data on 10m long path to JA and VK6path to JA and VK6

• I used his log data to create plotsI used his log data to create plots– Openings vs SSNOpenings vs SSN– Seasonal variationSeasonal variation– Duration of OpeningsDuration of Openings

• Let’s look at this dataLet’s look at this data


K2ARO: Long Path to JAK2ARO: Long Path to JA• Short path is 11,000 kmShort path is 11,000 km

– High northern latitudes in High northern latitudes in darkness a long timedarkness a long time

• Long path is 29,000 kmLong path is 29,000 km– Two transits across the Two transits across the

robust equatorial robust equatorial ionosphereionosphere

– High southern latitudes in High southern latitudes in daylightdaylight

– Need sunrise at K2ARONeed sunrise at K2ARO– JA can be past sunset, but JA can be past sunset, but

not too long past sunsetnot too long past sunset• F22 recombination after recombination after

sunset is much slower sunset is much slower than ionization at sunrisethan ionization at sunrise

• Long path goes over VK6Long path goes over VK6

K2ARO

JA

April 15

short

long

sunrise on one end, not too far past sunset on the other end


K2ARO: Openings vs SSNK2ARO: Openings vs SSN

Looks like a smoothed sunspot number greater than about 60 gives 10m long path


K2ARO: Seasonal VariationK2ARO: Seasonal Variation

• Both paths are available from March through OctoberBoth paths are available from March through October• VK6 appears to have a drop-out in summerVK6 appears to have a drop-out in summer

to JA to VK6


K2ARO: Duration of K2ARO: Duration of OpeningsOpenings

• 1979 – average 14 minutes1979 – average 14 minutes• 1980 – average 16.3 minutes (longest 2 hours 7 minutes)1980 – average 16.3 minutes (longest 2 hours 7 minutes)• 1981 – average 28.5 minutes1981 – average 28.5 minutes• 1982 – average 26 minutes1982 – average 26 minutes• 1988 – average 24.7 minutes1988 – average 24.7 minutes• 1989 – average 30.9 minutes (longest 2 hours 42 minutes)1989 – average 30.9 minutes (longest 2 hours 42 minutes)• 1990 – average 20.4 minutes1990 – average 20.4 minutes• 1991 – average 23.5 minutes1991 – average 23.5 minutes• 1992 – average 42.6 minutes (longest 1 hour 40 minutes)1992 – average 42.6 minutes (longest 1 hour 40 minutes)

Overall average = 23 minutes


What About the Terminator?What About the Terminator?• 10% of K2ARO’s JA QSOs 10% of K2ARO’s JA QSOs

were before the spring were before the spring equinox and after the fall equinox and after the fall equinoxequinox

• 23% of K2ARO’s VK6 23% of K2ARO’s VK6 QSOs were before the QSOs were before the spring equinox and after spring equinox and after the fall equinoxthe fall equinox

• Prior to the spring Prior to the spring equinox and after the fall equinox and after the fall equinox the overhead equinox the overhead Sun is in the southern Sun is in the southern hemispherehemisphere– More absorption along More absorption along

long pathlong path

March 8

K2ARO

JA

terminator important for sunrise on one end


What About East Coast What About East Coast Sunset?Sunset?

• Let’s reverse the pathLet’s reverse the path

• Look for path with one Look for path with one end just after sunrise end just after sunrise and not too far past and not too far past sunset on W2 endsunset on W2 end

• VU area fits the billVU area fits the bill

path should be there – but not a high ham population

April 15


Met JH3DPB on 10m LPMet JH3DPB on 10m LP

• We set up daily skeds in April 1992We set up daily skeds in April 1992

• Yuu ran a TS-930 barefoot to a 6-Yuu ran a TS-930 barefoot to a 6-element monobander at 110 feetelement monobander at 110 feet

• I ran a TS-180 barefoot to a 4-I ran a TS-180 barefoot to a 4-element monobander at 72 feetelement monobander at 72 feet

• QSOs possible on many daysQSOs possible on many days

• Two days were noteworthyTwo days were noteworthy


Noteworthy DaysNoteworthy Days• Contact established at 1100 UTCContact established at 1100 UTC

– 6:00 AM local for me, 8:00 PM local for Yuu6:00 AM local for me, 8:00 PM local for Yuu

• Contact maintained until 1315 UTCContact maintained until 1315 UTC– 8:15 AM for me, 10:15 PM for Yuu8:15 AM for me, 10:15 PM for Yuu

• Opening sudden in natureOpening sudden in nature– Had to wait for MUF to rise on my endHad to wait for MUF to rise on my end

• Closing was a gradual decrease in signal strengthClosing was a gradual decrease in signal strength– Absorption increased as the sub-solar point moved Absorption increased as the sub-solar point moved

closer to the pathcloser to the path

• 2 hours 15 minutes2 hours 15 minutes– Could have lasted even longer with amplifiers on both Could have lasted even longer with amplifiers on both

endsends– Falls in line with K2ARO’s longest openingFalls in line with K2ARO’s longest opening


Recent OpeningsRecent Openings


W3LPL & K3LR in 2011 ARRL W3LPL & K3LR in 2011 ARRL DXDX

• K3LR on 10m in 2011 ARRL DXK3LR on 10m in 2011 ARRL DX– CW (19, 20 Feb)CW (19, 20 Feb)

• No JAs (or any SE Asia) via long pathNo JAs (or any SE Asia) via long path• Nothing on short path, eitherNothing on short path, either

– PH (5, 6 Mar)PH (5, 6 Mar)• 4 long path QSOs4 long path QSOs

– 3 JAs and 1 BV3 JAs and 1 BV– 1236 – 1310 UTC on Sunday morning 1236 – 1310 UTC on Sunday morning

• 4 short path QSOs with JA4 short path QSOs with JA– 3 on Saturday evening between 2149 - 2154 UTC3 on Saturday evening between 2149 - 2154 UTC– 1 on Sunday evening at 2133 UTC1 on Sunday evening at 2133 UTC

• N4QQ at W3LPL reported similar openings N4QQ at W3LPL reported similar openings • W3LPL & K3LR on 15m in 2011 ARRL DXW3LPL & K3LR on 15m in 2011 ARRL DX

– Nothing obvious, but this is not surprising as long path would Nothing obvious, but this is not surprising as long path would be at the same time as the morning EU openingbe at the same time as the morning EU opening

• Other recent reportsOther recent reports– I’ve seen reports of 15m, 12m, and 10m long pathI’ve seen reports of 15m, 12m, and 10m long path

5-Mar-11 2149 28410 J H2UVL5-Mar-11 2152 28414 J A3Y BK5-Mar-11 2154 28427 J A7OWD6-Mar-11 1236 28448 J A6WIF6-Mar-11 1236 28448 J A6WJ L6-Mar-11 1303 28448 BV1E K6-Mar-11 1310 28448 J A5MXP6-Mar-11 2133 28448 J H1APZ


Apply East Coast Apply East Coast Knowledge to Other Knowledge to Other

Parts of the USParts of the US


East Coast vs West CoastEast Coast vs West Coast

• W6 to JA long path is 2000 km longer than W2 to JA long pathW6 to JA long path is 2000 km longer than W2 to JA long path• JA is farther into the dark ionosphereJA is farther into the dark ionosphere

April 15 April 15

W2W6

JAJA

W6 should have an opening to a QTH west of JA (closer to sunset)W6 should have an opening to a QTH west of JA (closer to sunset)


West Coast OpeningsWest Coast Openings

April 15

VUW6

W6 to VU area at W6 sunrise(but not a high ham population)

W6 to Mideast & EU after W6 sunset(good opening - N6AV wrote about it)

Mideast

EU

W6


Interesting PatternInteresting Pattern• East Coast has good long path opening after sunriseEast Coast has good long path opening after sunrise• East Coast should have long path opening after East Coast should have long path opening after

sunset, but population not there on other endsunset, but population not there on other end

• West Coast has good long path opening after sunsetWest Coast has good long path opening after sunset• West Coast should have long path opening after West Coast should have long path opening after

sunrise, but population not there on other endsunrise, but population not there on other end

• How about QTHs in between the East Coast and How about QTHs in between the East Coast and West Coast?West Coast?

• Could they have two opportunities – one at sunrise Could they have two opportunities – one at sunrise and one at sunset?and one at sunset?


Texas – Sunrise and SunsetTexas – Sunrise and Sunset

EU

SE Asia

TexasTexas Mideast

There should be two opportunities for long path


NT5C LogNT5C Log

• John NT5C provided his logJohn NT5C provided his log– March 1989 through April 1992March 1989 through April 1992

• 10m long path after sunrise10m long path after sunrise– BY, JA, KH6, P2, S2 VK, VR2, YBBY, JA, KH6, P2, S2 VK, VR2, YB

• 10m long path after sunset10m long path after sunset– A9, DL, EA, F, FR, HA, HB, HZ, I, LY, OK, A9, DL, EA, F, FR, HA, HB, HZ, I, LY, OK,

ST0, UA, UA9, UB, UH, UI, UL, VQ9, VU, ST0, UA, UA9, UB, UH, UI, UL, VQ9, VU, YU, Z2, ZS, 3B8, 5H, 5Z, 9KYU, Z2, ZS, 3B8, 5H, 5Z, 9K


Apply 10m Knowledge to 15m and 12mApply 10m Knowledge to 15m and 12m


15m and 12m15m and 12m• K2ARO’s data says a smoothed sunspot number of 60 is needed K2ARO’s data says a smoothed sunspot number of 60 is needed

for consistent 10m long path openingsfor consistent 10m long path openings– That agrees with VOACAP predictionsThat agrees with VOACAP predictions

• Similar work with VOACAP says 15m long path should be possible Similar work with VOACAP says 15m long path should be possible when the smoothed sunspot number is greater than 25when the smoothed sunspot number is greater than 25– We’re past that, so look for 15m long path nowWe’re past that, so look for 15m long path now

• And 12m long path should be possible when the smoothed And 12m long path should be possible when the smoothed sunspot number is greater than 40sunspot number is greater than 40– We’re right around that nowWe’re right around that now

• Remember that the FRemember that the F2 region is very dynamic on a day-to-day region is very dynamic on a day-to-day basis, so we’ll see intermittent cases of 12m and 10m long path basis, so we’ll see intermittent cases of 12m and 10m long path before the smoothed sunspot number reaches 40 and 60, before the smoothed sunspot number reaches 40 and 60, respectively (example: K3LR and W3LPL QSOs on 10m in 2011 respectively (example: K3LR and W3LPL QSOs on 10m in 2011 ARRL DX PH)ARRL DX PH)


Summary of 15m/12m/10m Summary of 15m/12m/10m LPLP

• Best months are March through OctoberBest months are March through October• East CoastEast Coast

– After sunrise to JA and SE AsiaAfter sunrise to JA and SE Asia– After sunset to VU area – but lack of ops on this endAfter sunset to VU area – but lack of ops on this end

• West CoastWest Coast– After sunset to Mideast and EUAfter sunset to Mideast and EU– After sunrise to VU area – but lack of ops on this endAfter sunrise to VU area – but lack of ops on this end

• TexasTexas– After sunrise to JA and SE AsiaAfter sunrise to JA and SE Asia– After sunset to Mideast and EUAfter sunset to Mideast and EU

• BandsBands– 15m should be happening now15m should be happening now– 12m should get better this summer (per Cycle 24’s ascent 12m should get better this summer (per Cycle 24’s ascent

so far)so far)– 10m should get better this fall (per Cycle’s 24 ascent so far)10m should get better this fall (per Cycle’s 24 ascent so far)


Q & AQ & A

pvrc webinar may 2011 k9la selected topics in propagation 15m/12m/10m long path carl luetzelschwab...

Documents

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long time long path

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minutes overall average