q1 2012 master presentation - final · revenue increases 6% 7 revenue $2,966m volume 1,602k rpu...

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1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, share repurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward- looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic, political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherent uncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions. Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at www.csx.com.

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Page 1: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

11

222222

Forward-Looking StatementsForward-Looking Statements

This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning ofthe Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings,revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, sharerepurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for futureoperations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectiveswill be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry ormarket conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as“will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update orrevise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should bedrawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-lookingstatements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results coulddiffer materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differmaterially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’ssuccess in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic,political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industrycompetition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherentbusiness risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting thecompany; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherentuncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov andthe company’s website at www.csx.com.

Page 2: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

Michael Ward

Chairman, President and

Chief Executive Officer

44

First quarter performance . . . First quarter performance . . .

Revenue growth

— Record first quarter revenue despite utility coal weakness

Operational excellence

— Safety, service and productivity drive excellent results

Financial performance

— Operating income increases 11% to first quarter record $856 million

— Operating ratio improves 140 bps to first quarter record 71.1%

$0.35

$0.43

Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Earnings Per Share

Volume 1,602 Revenue $2,966M Operating Income $856M Operating Ratio 71.1% EPS $0.43

23%Increase

Page 3: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Sales and Marketing ReviewSales and Marketing Review

Clarence Gooden

Executive Vice President

Sales and Marketing

Overall outlook for second quarter is favorableOverall outlook for second quarter is favorable

Outlook Markets Drivers

Favorable

58% of volume

Intermodal

Automotive

Metals

Forest Products

Phosphate & Fertilizer

Truck conversions and new customer gains

Growth in automobile production

Steel for auto, oil and gas industries

Consumer packaging demand

Increased application on high acreage

Neutral

32% of volume

Chemicals

Emerging Markets

Agricultural Products

Food & Consumer

Export & Ind. Coal

Steady industrial growth and frac sand opportunities

Construction activity continues to recover

Stable animal production supports grain shipments

Capture further truckload conversions

Thermal exports offsetting met coal declines

Unfavorable

10% of volume Utility Coal Low natural gas prices driving low coal demand

66

Page 4: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Revenue increases 6%Revenue increases 6%

77777777777777777777

RPU $1,851Volume 1,602KRevenue $2,966M

Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012

Revenue in Millions

$2,810$26

$64

$66 $2,966

Coal revenue decreases 5%Coal revenue decreases 5%

Utility

Export

Industrial

CoalSectors

10%

(14%)

(5%)

RPU

Volume

Revenue

First QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

55%55%33%33%

12%

First Quarter Volume (tons)

RPU $2,514Volume 331KRevenue $832M

First Quarter

— Lower demand and low natural gas prices impact utility volume

— Industrial gains driven by increased steel production

— Thermal coal demand drives increased export volume

Ongoing Drivers

— Good start in export coal supports expectation for flat volume in 2012

— Industrial coal shipments to remain strong on strength of steel demand

— Challenges in domestic shipments expected to continue

88

Page 5: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Intermodal revenue increases 19%Intermodal revenue increases 19%

IntermodalSectors

Domestic

International

51%51%49%49%

10%

9%

19%

RPU

Volume

Revenue

First QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

First Quarter Volume

RPU $648Volume 600KRevenue $389M

First Quarter

— Record domestic volume on continued truck conversions

— Strong international growth driven by onboarding new Maersk traffic

— RPU higher on positive mix, improved pricing and fuel recovery

Ongoing Drivers

— Strategic investments enhance growth and network operations

— Growth driven by truck conversions and expanded service offerings

99

Merchandise revenue increases 10%Merchandise revenue increases 10%

MerchandiseSectors

Agriculture

Construction

Industrial

32%32%

24%24%44%

7%

3%

10%

RPU

Volume

Revenue

First QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

First Quarter Volume

RPU $2,496Volume 671KRevenue $1,675M

First Quarter

— Industrial growth led by Automotive and Metals markets

— Construction flat as building products strength offset aggregate weakness

— Agricultural sector declines primarily driven by phosphates

Ongoing Drivers

— Agriculture sector stable with growth expected in Phosphate shipments

— Industrial strength led by Automotive and Metals markets

— Construction growth led by strength in multi-family housing

1010

Page 6: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

1111

Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .

Economic backdrop favorable for 2012 — Most major economic indicators signal continued growth

Second quarter volume and revenue outlook favorable — Volume outlook stable to favorable for 90% of the traffic base

Utility coal weakness expected to continue— Headwinds are expected to moderate throughout 2012

CSX standing out as compelling value for customers— Providing a high level of service and offering environmentally friendly solutions

Operations ReviewOperations Review

Oscar Munoz

Executive Vice President

Chief Operating Officer

Page 7: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Delivering performance excellenceDelivering performance excellence

Safety— Performance measures remain

strong, with improving trend

Service— Key service measures are at

or near record levels

Productivity— Cost controls and productivity

savings drive margin expansion

Strategy— Adapting to changing conditions

and building for the future

1313

Strategy

Productivity

Service

Safety

People

1.31

0.82 0.79 0.78

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

FRA Personal Injury Rate

CSX is a leader in one of nation’s safest industriesCSX is a leader in one of nation’s safest industries

3.66

3.32

2.64

2.01

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

FRA Train Accident Rate

1414

Page 8: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA 6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA

First quarter on-time performance is at high levelsFirst quarter on-time performance is at high levels

83%

69%66%

89%

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

On-time Originations

79%

67%

59%

77%

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

On-time Arrivals

1515

6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA

System performance showing strong improvement System performance showing strong improvement

1616

24.1

25.826.6

24.0

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Terminal Dwell (hours)

21.6

20.920.5

22.3

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Velocity (mph)

Page 9: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Service at high levels across all three networksService at high levels across all three networks

17171717

Coal

Average train length increases to 106 cars

Fluidity delivers 12.5 million tons of export

16.4 16.4 16.6

18.4

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Velocity (mph)

Intermodal

Expedited availability improves to 98%

Exceeding customer service commitments

30.9

29.8

28.3

30.1

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Velocity (mph)

Merchandise

Terminal dwell improves 10% to 24.0 hours

On-time arrival to the customer improves

21.820.7

19.721.0

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Velocity (mph)

6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA

Cost control and productivity help expand marginCost control and productivity help expand margin

76.9%

74.6%

72.5%

71.1%

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Operating Ratio Adjusting resources for coal demand and peak service

— Over 280 T&E employees on furlough and retention boards

— Locomotives being stored after smooth start to peak season

Productivity contributes to first quarter gains

— Increased crew efficiencies and reduced engineering overtime

— High service levels improve car cycle times and reduce car rents

1818

Page 10: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Operational strategy positions company long-termOperational strategy positions company long-term

Ensuring safety as first priority— CSX continues to be a leader in one of the nation’s safest industries

Emphasizing service excellence across network — Maintaining high levels of reliability and customer service

Deploying asset utilization to drive productivity— Expect to exceed $130 million of productivity savings in 2012

1919

Delivering performance excellence

Financial ReviewFinancial Review

Fredrik Eliasson

Executive Vice President

Chief Financial Officer

Page 11: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

2121

First quarter earnings summary . . .First quarter earnings summary . . .

2121

First Quarter Results

Dollars in millions, except EPS 2012 2011 Variance

Revenue

Expense

$ 2,966

2,110

$ 2,810

2,037

6%

(4%)

Operating Income $ 856 $ 773 11%

Interest Expense

Other Income (net)

Income Taxes

(144

4

(267

)

)

(140

5

(243

)

)

Net Earnings $ 449 $ 395 14%

Fully Diluted Shares in Millions

Earnings Per Share

1,049

$ 0.43

1,115

$ 0.35 23%

2222

4%

0%

6%

10%

2%

1%

Total Expenses

Equipment Rent

Depreciation

Fuel

Material, Supplies, and Other

Labor and Fringe

First Quarter 2012 Operating Expensesand Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

2222

Expenses up 4% overall and 2% excluding fuelExpenses up 4% overall and 2% excluding fuel

$ 770

97

542

444

257

$ 2,110

Page 12: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%

31,175 29,310 30,444

32,393

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Employee Headcount

2323

First QuarterLabor Analysis in Millions

2011 Labor Expense $ 765

Hiring and Training

Volume and Other

Inflation

Incentive Compensation

(12

(9

(8

24

)

)

)

Subtotal (5)

2012 Labor Expense $ 770

Variance

2323

MS&O expense increases 2% MS&O expense increases 2%

$538 $519

$530 $542

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

MS&O ExpenseDollars in Millions

Variance

First QuarterMS&O Analysis in Millions

2011 MS&O Expense $ 530

Inflation

SunRail Gain

Volume Related

Other

(14

19

(12

(5

)

)

)

Subtotal (12)

2012 MS&O Expense $ 542

24242424

Page 13: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

2525

Fuel expense increases 10%Fuel expense increases 10%

$1.39

$2.11

$2.86 $3.15

Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Locomotive Fuel PriceDollars per Gallon

Variance

First QuarterFuel Analysis in Millions

2011 Fuel Expense $ 402

Price

Efficiency

Volume

Non-locomotive fuel

(37

(4

(2

1

)

)

)

Subtotal (42)

2012 Fuel Expense $ 444

Still expect strong incremental margins for 2012Still expect strong incremental margins for 2012

50%

31%

53%

2010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

Incremental Operating Margins

2626

Pressured by greater coal headwinds

Cycling second half 2011 resource investments and utility coal

headwinds moderate

Page 14: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

2727

Earnings growth supports balanced cash deploymentEarnings growth supports balanced cash deployment

CapitalInvestment

Capital investment plan remains $2.25 billion for 2012

Total PTC investment increasing $500 million to $1.7 billion

Core investment in infrastructure, rolling stock and strategiccapital remains the same at 16% – 17% of revenue

Dividends

Payout target is between 30% – 35% of TTM earnings

TTM earnings through the first quarter was $1.75 per share

Board to review potential dividend increase in May

ShareRepurchase

Repurchased $300 million of CSX shares during the first quarter

Cumulative share repurchases of $7.5 billion since 2006

Remain on track to complete current program by year-end 2012

Note: 2012 capital investment plan excludes investment related to public-private reimbursable projects, but includes PTC

Improving credit profile supports balanced approachImproving credit profile supports balanced approach

25%

31%32%

34%

2009 2010 2011 2012LTM

3.0X

2.6X2.5X 2.5X

2009 2010 2011 2012LTM

2828

Funds from Operations-to-Debt Debt-to-EBITDA

Note: Calculations of FFO-to-Debt and Debt-to-EBITDA are based on S&P’s and Moody’s methodologies respectively

Page 15: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

Financial wrap-up . . .Financial wrap-up . . .

Delivered record results despite utility coal headwind— Strong growth in Merchandise and Intermodal offset utility coal weakness

— Strong safety, service, productivity and cost performance help drive results

Still expecting full-year record financial performance— Offsetting volume losses in utility coal with cost management and productivity

— Volume gains in Merchandise and Intermodal expected to remain strong

— Pricing above moderating inflation levels

On-track to produce 65% operating ratio by 2015— Path towards target more challenging, but goal remains in sight

— Improving earnings and credit profile support balanced cash deployment

2929

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Michael Ward

Chairman, President and

Chief Executive Officer

Page 16: Q1 2012 Master Presentation - FINAL · Revenue increases 6% 7 Revenue $2,966M Volume 1,602K RPU $1,851 Q1 2011 Volume Rate/Mix Fuel Price Q1 2012 Revenue in Millions $2,810 $26 $64

3131

Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .

3232