q1 2019 earnings review/media/files/p/pnm...targeted 2018-2022 rate base cagr (2018 base): total...
TRANSCRIPT
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Q1 2019 Earnings ReviewMay 7, 2019
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Safe Harbor Statement
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Statements made in this presentation for PNM Resources, Inc. (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico (“PNM”), or Texas‐New Mexico Power Company (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward‐looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward‐looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward‐looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward‐looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10‐K and 10‐Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.
Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresFor an explanation of the non‐GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and ongoing earnings guidance measures), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm.
http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
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Opening Remarks and OverviewPat Vincent‐Collawn
Chairman, President and CEO
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Financial Results and Key Highlights
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• Upper end of earnings guidance increased to $2.20• Revised 2019 Ongoing EPS Guidance $2.10 - $2.20
Financial Results
Note: EPS is presented on a diluted basis. For a reconciliation of GAAP EPS to Ongoing EPS and a description of adjustments made, please refer to the first quarter earnings release issued May 7, 2019.
Q1 2019 Q1 2018GAAP EPS $0.23 $0.19Ongoing EPS $0.13 $0.21
• New Mexico Legislative Updates• Energy Transition Act: Securitization, increased Renewable Portfolio
Standards, 2045 carbon‐free requirement• PNM goal to achieve 100% emissions‐free by 2040
• Constitutional amendment to move to appointed New Mexico Public Regulation Commissioners will be sent to voters in 2020 general election
• Western Spirit acquisition to expand FERC transmission, support renewable development
Key Highlights
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PNM and TNMP Regulatory Agenda
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Filing Action Timing Docket No.
PNMAppeal of 2015 General Rate Case to New Mexico Supreme Court
Oral arguments held October 30, 2017 No statutory timeline S‐1‐SC‐36115
San Juan Generating Station Compliance Filing / Abandonment Filing
NMPRC order issued to file application in support of abandonment by March 1, 2019; New Mexico Supreme Court issued temporary stay of Order on March 1, 2019
Parties’ responses filed with New Mexico Supreme Court March 19, 2019
PNM plans to file for abandonment, securitization and replacement power CCNs in June 2019
19‐00018‐UT
TBD
Western Energy Imbalance Market Filing
Final Order issued March 27th affirmed accounting treatment and Clarifying Order issued April 24threlated to future calculation of benefits
PNM plans to join Western Energy Imbalance Market in April 2021 18‐00261‐UT
BB2 Transmission Project Final Order issued April 16, 2019 granting CCN and denying PNM’s requested ratemaking treatment. PNM filed on April 29, 2019 for re‐hearing; Commission response expected by May 19 18‐00243‐UT
2017 Integrated Resource Plan
San Juan Entities filed notice of appeal to New Mexico Supreme Court January 18, 2019 No statutory timeline
17‐00174‐UTS‐1‐SC‐37482
2018 Renewable PlanNMIEC and New Energy Economy filed notices of appeal to New Mexico Supreme Court November 29, 2017
No statutory timeline; oral arguments held May 6, 2019
17‐00129‐UTS‐1‐SC‐36772
TNMPTCOS Filing Filed January 25, 2019 Rates implemented March 21, 2019 49143
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Financial OverviewChuck Eldred
Executive Vice President and CFO
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Q1 2019 Ongoing EPS Financial Summary
7Note: Segment drivers included in appendix
$0.02 ($0.07)
($0.03)
$0.21
$0.13
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
PNM
TNMPCorporate
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Load and Economic Conditions
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Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers (weather‐normalized)
(1) Primarily Residential usage; represents per‐kWh billings(2) Commercial and Industrial demand excluding Transmission customers; represents per‐kW monthly peak billings
• Oil and gas customer requests for new service trending ~33% higher than prior year levels
• Residential and small commercial requests trending higher
TNMPQ1 2019
vs. Q1 2018
2019 Guidance
TNMP Total Volumetric Load(1) (1.9%) 2% – 3%TNMP Demand-Based Load(2) 4.7% 6% – 8%TNMP Avg. End Users 1.5% 1.5% – 2.0%
PNM Q1 2019
vs. Q1 2018
2019 Guidance
PNM Residential & Commercial 0.6% 0.3% - 0.5%Total PNM Retail Load (Revised) 1.2% 0.5% – 1.5%PNM Avg. Customers 0.8% 0.8% - 1.0%
• Residential and commercial sectors are expected to be in line with annual guidance
• Revised guidance resulting from stronger economic growth in the industrial sector
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$2.10 Consolidated EPS $2.20
PNM$1.63 – $1.70
TNMP$0.67 – $0.69
Corp/Other($0.20) – ($0.19)
Consolidated Earnings Guidance (Ongoing)
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2019 Previous RevisedConsolidated EPS $2.10 - $2.18 $2.10 - $2.20
PNM $1.61 ‐ $1.65 $1.63 ‐ $1.70
TNMP $0.67 ‐ $0.69 $0.67 ‐ $0.69
Corporate/Other ($0.18) – ($0.16) ($0.20) – ($0.19)
2019 Earnings Guidance (Revised)
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$2.6B investment plan achieves targeted earnings growthGrowth opportunities realized in the plan:• $285M(1) Western Spirit acquisition included as PNM transmission expansion in 2021• $40M of additional PNM T&D capital added in 2022
Additional capital investment tobe reflected with June 2019
abandonment filing
$255 $276$306 $316
$245 $245 $245 $245
$143 $171 $169 $181
$98 $97 $79 $82 $60 $37 $88
$285 $21 $25
$26
$20
$30 $34
2019 2020 2021 2022
(in m
illio
ns)
TNMP PNM T&D PNM Existing Generation PNM Renewable AdditionsPNM Transmission Expansion Corporate/Other 50% NMRD Renewable Additions Depreciation
$634
$528
$804
$660
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2019 – 2022 Investment Plan
(1) Reflects assumed purchase price of $360M, net of $75M customer funding(2) Depreciation does not include amounts associated with NMRD
(2)
Targeted 2018-2022 Rate Base CAGR (2018 base): Total 8.7%-9.5% / PNM 5.9%-7.1% / TNMP 16.2% Range at PNM reflects the removal of items pending NM Supreme Court general rate review appeal from the base period and includes the potential outcomes of $0‐$150M through the growth period
(1)
San Juan Replacement Power
Chart1
2019
2020
2021
316
Depreciation
255
276
306
Sheet1
20192020202120222023
PNM Generation
PNM T&D
PNM Renewables
TNMP
Other
Total
Depreciation255276306316316
Check
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2019 - 2022 Potential Earnings Power
11This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2022 earnings guidance.
Refer to Slide 16 for additional details and disclosures.
Earnings Growth Target: 5 - 6%
Note: 2018‐2022 CAGR measured from 2018 Ongoing EPS of $2.00(1) Assumes mid‐year implementation
Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint
2020 Earnings Potential
2021 Earnings Potential
2022 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
PNM Retail 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 9.5% $1.44 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48
PNM Renewables 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08
PNM FERC 10% / ~50% $275 M 7.4% $0.13 $330 M $0.15‐$0.20 $530 M $0.26‐$0.30 $740 M $0.37‐$0.42
Items not in Rates $0.03 ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02)
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.67 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.83-$1.89 $3.4 B $1.89-$1.96
TNMP 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.68 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.4 B $0.80 $1.6 B $0.84
Corporate/Other ($0.20) ($0.21)‐($0.19) ($0.21)‐($0.19) ($0.19)‐($0.17)
Equity Financing Plans ($0.01)‐$0.00 ($0.08)‐($0.07) ($0.15)‐($0.13)
Subtotal Base PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.15 $4.1 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.6 B $2.34 - $2.43 $4.9 B $2.39 - $2.50
Supreme Court Appeal (1) $0-$150M $0.00-$0.05 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09
Total PNM Resources up to $3.9 B $2.15 - $2.20 $4.1-$4.3B $2.15 - $2.34 $4.6-$4.8B $2.34 - $2.52 $4.9-$5.1B $2.39 - $2.59
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Questions and Answers
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Appendix
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Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018 EPS (Ongoing): PNM
$0.12$0.14
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
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PNMQ1 2019 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Weather $0.03
Interest expense savings $0.03Retail rate phase‐in, including changes in tax rates and retail generation portfolio changes approved in BART settlement $0.02
Retail load $0.01
Outage costs $0.01
O&M increases ($0.04)
Depreciation and property tax ($0.02)
AFUDC ($0.01)
Other ($0.01)
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Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018 EPS (Ongoing): TNMP and Corporate
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$0.12$0.05
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
TNMPQ1 2019 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Rate relief, including TCOS ($0.04)Depreciation and property tax ($0.02)Weather ($0.01)
($0.03) ($0.06)
Q1 2018 Q1 2019
Corporate
Q1 2019 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Interest expense ($0.01)Westmoreland loan agreements ($0.01)Other ($0.01)
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Potential Earnings Power
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(1) Average rate base has been reduced by approximately $130M to represent the ($0.05) of Earnings Potential for the lost equity return on the Four Corners investment resulting from the 2018 general rate review settlement. 2022 rate base is reduced by $160M to reflect the projected average rate base retired at SJGS.
(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) PNM FERC reflects a return of 7%‐9% 2019 – 2020 versus the allowed return of 10%, as FERC formula rate methodology uses prior year average rate base and provides for mid‐year rate
increases. 2021 – 2022 reflects a return of 8%‐9% to account for Western Spirit investment recovered through an incremental rates.(4) Consists primarily of decommissioning/reclamation trust income (net of fees and taxes), AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4.(5) TNMP earnings include additional recovery for Competitive Transition Costs (fully recovered in 2020) and Energy Efficiency, along with items excluded from rates (primarily AFUDC).
Earnings also include interest savings beginning mid‐2019 from the refinancing of existing debt. (6) Corporate/Other includes the earnings impacts associated with short and intermediate term bank debt and the 50% equity interest in NMRD.(7) Equity Financing Plans reflect financing alternatives, including ATM Program issuance of up to $150M (dilution impacts assume $50M issued in 2020 and $100M issued in 2021, with a full
year dilution impact in 2022), and $250M mandatory convertibles beginning mid‐2021.(8) Reflects a range of outcomes for the New Mexico Supreme Court appeal of the August 2015 General Rate Review final order. A minimum 34‐month appeal
timeframe has been used for purposes of writing down the value of the assets under appeal. 2019 average rate base presented includes: PV2 64MW Acquisition Adjustment (~$75M), PV2 Leasehold Improvements (~$25M) and Balanced Draft Technology (~$50M).
This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2022 earnings guidance.
Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint
2020 Earnings Potential
2021 Earnings Potential
2022 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS
PNM Retail(1) 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 9.5% $1.44 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48
PNM Renewables(2) 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08
PNM FERC(3) 10% / ~50% $275 M 7.4% $0.13 $330 M $0.15‐$0.20 $530 M $0.26‐$0.30 $740 M $0.37‐$0.42
Items not in Rates(4) $0.03 ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02)
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.67 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.83-$1.89 $3.4 B $1.89-$1.96
TNMP(5) 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.68 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.4 B $0.80 $1.6 B $0.84
Corporate/Other(6) ($0.20) ($0.21)‐($0.19) ($0.21)‐($0.19) ($0.19)‐($0.17)
Equity Financing Plans(7) ($0.01)‐$0.00 ($0.08)‐($0.07) ($0.15)‐($0.13)
Subtotal Base PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.15 $4.1 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.6 B $2.34 - $2.43 $4.9 B $2.39 - $2.50
Supreme Court Appeal(8) $0-$150M $0.00-$0.05 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09 $0-$150M $0.00-$0.09
Total PNM Resources up to $3.9 B $2.15 - $2.20 $4.1-$4.3B $2.15 - $2.34 $4.6-$4.8B $2.34 - $2.52 $4.9-$5.1B $2.39 - $2.59
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EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)
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Ongoing EBITDA(In millions)
2019E MidpointConsolidated PNM Resources $572
PNM $378
TNMP $173
6%27%
56%
11%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 Quarterly Ongoing Earnings Distribution
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Weather Impact
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PNM Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2019 Normal(1)
Heating Degree Days 1,224 989 1,102
Cooling Degree Days 1 0 0
Net EPS Impact compared to normal
$0.02 ($0.01)
TNMP Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2019 Normal(1)
Heating Degree Days 927 877 902
Cooling Degree Days 75 150 88
Net EPS Impact compared to normal
$0.00 $0.00(1) 2019 normal weather assumption reflects the 20‐year average for the period 1999 ‐ 2018.
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PNM Scheduled Plant Outages
19
San Juan
Unit Duration in DaysTime
Period
4 44 Q2 2019
Palo Verde
Unit Duration in DaysTime
Period
1 30 Q2 2019
3 44 Q4 2019
Four Corners
Unit Duration in DaysTime
Period
4 21 Q1 2019 (completed)
5 21 Q1 2019(completed)
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Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics
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Liquidity as of May 3, 2019
21
PNM TNMP
PNMR
PNM Resources
Consolidated
PNMR Develop-
mentCorporate
/Other
Financing Capacity(1): (In millions)
Revolving credit facilities $440.0 $75.0 $25.0 $300.0 $840.0
As of 5/3/19:
Short‐term debt and LOCbalances $2.5 $29.3 $15.1 $60.6 $107.5
Remaining availability 437.5 45.7 9.9 239.4 732.5
Invested cash 9.0 ‐ ‐ 0.9 9.9
Total Available Liquidity $446.5 $45.7 $9.9 $240.3 $742.4(1) Excludes intercompany debt and term loans
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Selected Balance Sheet Information
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(1) Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, premiums and discounts(2) Excludes intercompany debt(3) Balance includes $172.3M of bonds repaid April 1, 2019 with proceeds from $225M bonds issued on March 29, 2019 Amounts may not add due to rounding
(In millions) Dec 31, 2018 Mar 31, 2019
Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion) (1)
PNM $1,656.5 $1,706.9
TNMP 575.4 798.9
Corporate/Other 438.2 438.4
Consolidated $2,670.1 $2,944.2
Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1,2)
PNM $1,698.9 $1,706.9
TNMP 592.9 798.9
Corporate/Other 614.2 662.2
Consolidated $2,906.0 $3,168.0
(3)
(3)
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Credit Ratings
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PNMR Consolidated S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ Baa3
Outlook Negative Stable
Senior unsecured rating BBB Baa3
PNM S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ Baa2
Outlook Negative Stable
Senior unsecured rating BBB+ Baa2
TNMP S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ A3
Issuer outlook Negative Stable
Senior secured rating A A1
Slide Number 1Safe Harbor StatementSlide Number 3Financial Results and Key HighlightsPNM and TNMP Regulatory AgendaSlide Number 6Q1 2019 Ongoing EPS Financial SummaryLoad and Economic ConditionsConsolidated Earnings Guidance (Ongoing)2019 – 2022 Investment Plan2019 - 2022 Potential Earnings PowerSlide Number 12Slide Number 13Q1 2019 vs Q1 2018 EPS (Ongoing): PNMQ1 2019 vs Q1 2018 EPS (Ongoing): TNMP and CorporatePotential Earnings PowerEBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)Weather ImpactPNM Scheduled Plant OutagesSlide Number 20Liquidity as of May 3, 2019Selected Balance Sheet InformationCredit Ratings