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Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation July 2015

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Page 1: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation July 2015

Page 2: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

Page 3: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Q2 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights

• Merger with Ainsworth completed on March 31, 2015

• Captured merger synergies of $4 million (annualized); on track to reach 50% run rate

of $45 million annualized target by year-end

• Adjusted EBITDA of $18 million

• Record quarterly production at four mills

• Margin improvement gains of $21 million YTD

• Manufacturing costs decreased by 7% YoY due to increased productivity, lower resin

prices, improved raw material usages and weaker Canadian dollar

• Declared CAD $0.10/share quarterly dividend payable September 21, 2015

3 Note: Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth and prior comparatives have been restated

Page 4: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

US Housing Starts

4 (1) Based on US housing economist forecasts

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

0.61

0.78

0.93 1.00

1.10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

June YTD data: housing starts up 11% and single family starts up 9% YoY

(1)

(in millions)

Page 5: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

US

$/M

sf-7

/16”

219 216 216

193 193 199

177 181

175 174

206

187

172

159

152 150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

North Central

South East

Western Canada

Source: Random Lengths

Spread SE vs NC 20 39 35 18 19 Spread WC vs NC 13 29 44 34 41

Page 6: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

European Indicative OSB Prices(1)

6

€/m

3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest Continental market

269

258

248

232

218

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

1 2 3 4 5 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014

Page 7: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD 2015 2015 2014 2015 2014

Sales 365 351 419 716 820 Adjusted EBITDA North America 11 11 37 22 65 Europe 10 7 12 17 25 Unallocated (3) (4) (3) (7) (8) Total 18 14 46 32 82

Reported (loss) earnings (23) (37) 23 (60) 16 Adjust for: Costs related to Ainsworth merger 3 7 - 10 - Costs on terminated LP acquisition - - - - 2 Costs on early extinguishment of Ainsworth Notes 25 - - 25 - Revaluation (gain) loss on Ainsworth Notes - 23 (10) 23 (2) Reported income tax recovery (22) (14) (1) (36) (2) Income tax recovery (expense) at statutory rate(1) 4 6 (3) 10 (4)

Adjusted (loss) earnings (13) (15) 9 (28) 10

Adjusted EPS, basic (0.15) (0.18) 0.11 (0.33) 0.12 Adjusted EPS, diluted (0.15) (0.18) 0.10 (0.33) 0.12

Financial Summary

7 (1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate

Page 8: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

8

(US $ millions)

Q2 2015 Q2 2015 YTD 2015 vs. vs. vs.

Q1 2015 Q2 2014 YTD 2014 Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 18 $ 18 $ 32

Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 14 46 82

Variance 4 (28) (50)

Mill nets(1) (14) (51) (87)

Volume(2) 7 1 1

Key input prices(3) 6 11 18

Key input usage(3) 5 4 7

Mill profit share and bonus - 1 1

Maintenance and other(4) - 6 10

Total 4 (28) (50)

1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.

2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products. 3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy. 4) The maintenance and other category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and the impact of foreign exchange.

Page 9: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Liquidity and Capital Resources

9

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD

2015 2015 2014 2015 2014 Cash (used for) provided by operating activities $ (3) $ (52) $ 15 $ (55) $ (26)

Cash (used for) provided by operating activities per share (0.04) (0.61) 0.18 (0.64) (0.31)

Operating working capital 151 146 158

Investment in property, plant and equipment 15 13 32 28 53

Page 10: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Balance Sheet

10

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)

Bank Covenant

Q2 2015

Q1 2015(1)

Q4 2014(1)

Q2 2014(1)

Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 440 $ 440 440

Add: Other long-term debt (2) 50 45 - -

Add: Bank advances - 3 - -

Less: Cash and cash equivalents (10) (4) (25) (83)

Net debt 795 484 415 357

Less: Other long-term debt (2) (50) (45) - -

Add: Letters of credit 4 3 3 3

Net debt for financial covenant purposes 749 442 418 360 Tangible net worth

738 388 404 453

Net debt to capitalization, book basis max. 65% 50% 53% 51% 44%

• Liquidity of $326 million = $10 million in cash + $316 million in unused credit lines (1) Not restated for the merger and are the originally disclosed amounts

(2) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of Net debt for financial covenant purposes)

Min. $450 post merger $250 pre merger

Page 11: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Appendices

Page 12: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

12

Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annu

al A

vera

ge N

C Pr

ice

US$

per

Msf

7/1

6"

15-year average

Q1 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193

Q2 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193

Q3 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216

Q4 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216

Average 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218

Page 13: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

13

Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at July 29, 2015. It is not exhaustive.

Annual Average North Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2015F 2016F

CIBC World Markets 207 260

Dundee Capital Markets 192 205

Raymond James 215 260

RBC Capital Markets 215 250

Scotia Capital 211 256

TD Securities 208 250

Vertical Research Partners 205 280

Average $212 $252

Page 14: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

14

38 Mills in Operation

8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

Appendices

Page 15: Q2 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Earnings Presentation . July 2015 . Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed

Financial Sensitivities

15

Appendices

(1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Approximate tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2014 – US $133 million, Canada C$300 million, Belgium €34 million

(2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8

Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1