q4 2008 employment outlook survey uk · 2009. 11. 6. · q4/08. 1 the manpower employment outlook...

Q4

2008

ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyUK

A Manpower Research Report

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey UK

Contents

UK Employment Outlook 1Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 16International Comparisons – EMEA

International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

About the Survey 25

About Manpower 26

Q4/

08

1

The Manpower EmploymentOutlook Survey for thefourth quarter 2008 wasconducted by interviewing a representative sample of2,103 employers in the UK.All survey participants were asked, “How do youanticipate total employmentat your location to changein the three months to theend of December 2008 ascompared to the currentquarter?”

Employers in the UK are downbeat about their hiringintentions for the fourth quarter of 2008. Of thosesurveyed, 7% anticipate an increase in hiring, but 8%expect a decrease, and 82% expect no change. The resulting Net Employment Outlook is -1%.

The Outlook is weaker by eight percentage points than theprevious quarter and 14 percentage points weaker thanthe fourth quarter of 2007. The Outlook is the weakestreported by UK employers since Quarter 1 1999.

Once seasonal variations are taken into account, theNet Employment Outlook is a flat 0 – five percentagepoints weaker than in Quarter 3 2008. Year-over-year,the Outlook for the UK has declined by a considerable14 percentage points. The seasonally adjusted Outlookis at its weakest since Quarter 1 1994.

Throughout this report, we use the term “NetEmployment Outlook.” This figure is derived by takingthe percentage of employers anticipating totalemployment to increase, and subtracting from this thepercentage expecting to see a decrease in employmentat their location in the next quarter. The result of thiscalculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

From this point forward, all data discussed in thecommentary is seasonally adjusted, unless statedotherwise.

UK Employment Outlook

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

Seasonally AdjustedOutlook

% % % % % %

4th Quarter 2007 18 5 75 2 13 14

1st Quarter 2008 13 6 80 1 7 9

2nd Quarter 2008 9 3 86 2 6 5

3rd Quarter 2008 11 4 84 1 7 5

4th Quarter 2008 7 8 82 3 -1 0


2

East

East Midlands

London

North West

North East

Northern Ireland

Scotland

South East

South WestWales

West MidlandsYorkshire & Humberside

DecreaseQ4 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2007

Qtr on QtrChangeQ3 2008

to Q4 2008

Yr on YrChangeQ4 2007

to Q4 2008IncreaseQ4 2008

%

6

8

9

13

6

6

7

5

116

78

%

7

7

1

16

6

10

11

14

411

98

%

-1 (1)11 (6)1

8 (5)1

-3 (-3)1

0 (-2)1

-4 (-4)1

-4 (4)1

-9 (-2)1

7 (6)1

-5 (-2)1

-2 (0)1

0 (3)1

%

2 (1)121 (13)1

14 (15)1

7 (7)1

6 (4)1

4 (3)1

2 (-1)1

8 (8)1

8 (4)1

11 (10)1

3 (2)1

-2 (4)1

%

12 (10)114 (14)1

17 (13)1

14 (14)1

10 (7)1

15 (15)1

-1 (7)1

6 (12)1

14 (13)1

6 (9)1

27 (23)1

22 (19)1

%

-3 (0)1-20 (-7)1

-6 (-10)1

-10 (-10)1

-6 (-6)1

-8 (-7)1

-6 (5)1

-17 (-10)1

-1 (2)1

-16 (-12)1

-5 (-2)1

2 (-1)1

%

-13 (-9)1-13 (-8)1

-9 (-8)1

-17 (-17)1

-10 (-9)1

-19 (-19)1

-3 (-3)1

-15 (-14)1

-7 (-7)1

-11 (-11)1

-29 (-23)1

-22 (-16)1

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.

In five of the 12 UK regions, employers’ hiring forecastsfor the fourth quarter of 2008 are negative, with thoseemployers expecting to decrease headcount outnumberedby those expecting an increase. The most mutedexpectations are in Northern Ireland, where employersreport a Net Employment Outlook of -4%. Employers alsoreport negative Outlooks in the North East, North West,South East and Wales. Employers in the East and theSouth West report hiring Outlooks of +6% whilstemployers in London anticipate an Outlook of +5%.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in only two regionsreport improved Outlooks, most notably in Scotland,where the Outlook improves by five percentage points.Elsewhere, the quarter-over-quarter movement haspredominantly been negative, with a considerabledecline of 12 percentage points reported by employersin Wales. Employers in London, the South East and the North East each report declines of 10 percentagepoints. Year-over-year, employers in all 12 regionsreport declining Outlooks, with the sharpest decreaseobserved by employers in the West Midlands – down23 percentage points.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, only employersin London and the South West are noting someopportunities for growth, with employers in these two regions reporting Outlooks of +8% and +7%,respectively. Of the seven regions where employersreport a negative Outlook, employers in the South Eastare the least optimistic, with the Outlook standing at agloomy -9%. In 11 of the 12 regions, there has been aquarter-over-quarter decline in hiring confidence, withthe sharpest decline reported by employers in the East,by 20 percentage points. Year-over-year, employers inall 12 regions report weaker Outlooks, with the sharpestdrop – 29 percentage points – reported by employers inthe West Midlands.

Regional Summary

3

Employers in five of the nine industry sectors surveyedreport a positive Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 42008, with the most optimistic employers in the Utilitiessector, where the Outlook is +14%. The least optimisticOutlook is held by employers in the Construction sector,who report an Outlook of -7% for the coming quarter.Quarter-over-quarter, only one sector – Utilities – has animproved Outlook, with a considerable 13 percentagepoint uplift. In each of the other eight sectors employerhiring confidence is weaker, with the steepest decline in expectations reported by employers in the Finance & Business Services sector where the Outlook weakensby 12 percentage points. Similar declines are reportedby employers in the Construction and Mining sectorswhere the Outlooks weaken by 11 percentage points in each case. Year-over-year, the overview is similar,with Utilities employers the only ones to expect hiringconfidence to increase – by seven percentage points.Meanwhile, the steepest decreases are reported in theFinance & Business Services sector, by 23 percentagepoints, and by employers in the Construction andMining sectors, by 19 percentage points in both cases.

The unadjusted data reveals four industry sectors with a positive Outlook, and four with a negative Outlook. In the Utilities sector, employers are cautiously optimisticabout their hiring plans with an Outlook of +9%.Employers in the Construction sector are gloomy abouttheir hiring prospects reporting an Outlook of -10%.Quarter-over-quarter, employers in seven sectorsanticipate a decline in hiring levels, with the sharpestdeclines in Outlook reported by employers in theConstruction, Mining and Finance & Business Servicessectors, by 18, 13 and 12 percentage points, respectively.Year-over-year, only employers in one sector – Utilities –anticipate improved hiring prospects, where the Outlookstrengthens by seven percentage points.

Agriculture

Community & Social

Construction

Hotels & Retail

Finance &Business Services

Manufacturing

Mining

Transport &CommunicationsUtilities

DecreaseQ4 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2007

Qtr on QtrChangeQ3 2008

to Q4 2008

Yr on YrChangeQ4 2007

to Q4 2008IncreaseQ4 2008

%

10

4

4

8

7

8

4

6

12

%

8

6

14

8

10

5

8

3

3

%

2 (6)1-2 (2)1

-10 (-7)1

0 (0)1

-3 (-1)1

3 (4)1

-4 (-3)1

3 (3)1

9 (14)1

%

7 (8)19 (5)1

8 (4)1

12 (12)1

4 (2)1

7 (5)1

9 (8)1

3 (4)1

4 (1)1

%

11 (11)10 (4)1

9 (12)1

23 (23)1

6 (8)1

10 (11)1

15 (16)1

14 (10)1

2 (7)1

%

-5 (-2)1-11 (-3)1

-18 (-11)1

-12 (-12)1

-7 (-3)1

-4 (-1)1

-13 (-11)1

0 (-1)1

5 (13)1

%

-9 (-5)1-2 (-2)1

-19 (-19)1

-23 (-23)1

-9 (-9)1

-7 (-7)1

-19 (-19)1

-11 (-7)1

7 (7)1

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.

Sector Summary


4

Employers in six of the 12 UK regions expect to increasehiring over Quarter 4 2008. Employers in the East andthe South West are the most optimistic with a NetEmployment Outlook of +6%. Employers in London,Scotland, Yorkshire & Humberside and the East Midlandsalso plan to add to their payroll with Outlooks of +5%,+4%, +3% and +1%, respectively.

Employers in Northern Ireland (-4%), the North East (-3%)and the North West, South East and Wales (all -2%) allreport muted hiring intentions.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in Wales, London, theNorth East and the South East anticipate notable declinesin hiring confidence, by 12 percentage points in Walesand London and by 10 percentage points in the NorthEast and the South East. Only in Scotland and theSouth West are employers reporting improved Outlooks,by five and two percentage points, respectively.

Year-over-year, employers in all 12 regions predictweaker hiring intentions. The decline over the past 12 months has been steepest in the West Midlands,where the Outlook is 23 percentage points weaker;Northern Ireland, weaker by 19 percentage points; the North East, where the decrease is 17 percentagepoints; and Yorkshire & Humberside, where the Outlookhas declined by 16 percentage points.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in Londonand the South West share the most positive hiringexpectations for the fourth quarter of 2008, with cautiouslyoptimistic Outlooks of +8% and +7%, respectively.Employers in the South East are the least optimistic aboutadding to their headcount as reflected in their Outlookof -9%. Quarter-over-quarter, employers in all but oneregion report weaker Outlooks, while year-over-year,those in all regions have reported declining Outlooks.

-10 1 5

North East

76

Wales

-2 0

North West

-4 4

London

West Midlands

-5 -2

-3 -3

0 -2

National Average -1 0

Scotland

0 3

Yorkshire & Humberside

-9 -2

East

South East

East Midlands -1 1

-4 -4

Northern Ireland

1 6

South West

8 5

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

-5 0 5 10

Regional Comparisons

5

East +1 (6)%Employers in the East are cautiously optimistic abouttheir hiring intentions reporting a Net EmploymentOutlook of +6% – one of the strongest in the UK thisquarter, but also the weakest reported for the regionsince Quarter 3 2005 and the weakest Quarter 4 resultsince 1993. The Outlook has declined moderately bothquarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by seven andeight percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted data, the Outlook is +1%, aconsiderable quarter-over-quarter decline of 20 percentagepoints, and is also 13 percentage points weaker, year-over-year. The Outlook is the weakest since Quarter 12001. The decline in confidence is particularly notableas employers in the East were the most confident of allthose surveyed in each of the two previous quarters.

East Midlands -1 (1)%In the East Midlands, employers expect hiring activity tobe flat over the fourth quarter of 2008, with a NetEmployment Outlook of +1%. The Outlook remainsstable quarter-over-quarter, but is nine percentagepoints weaker compared to Quarter 4 2007.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook forthe region is -1%, reflecting a slight three percentagepoint decline quarter-over-quarter and a more considerable13 percentage point weakening year-over-year.

’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


6

London +8 (5)%In London, employers expect to add to their headcountat a moderate rate in Quarter 4 2008, reporting a NetEmployment Outlook of +5%. This quarter’s Outlookreflects quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declinesof 10 and eight percentage points, respectively.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlookstands at +8%, which is six percentage points weakerquarter-over-quarter and a decline of nine percentagepoints year-over-year. 9% of employers plan to take onmore staff this quarter and just 1% plan to make cut-backs. 87% of employers – the strongest of all regionssurveyed - plan to keep their staffing levels the same.

North East -3 (-3)%Employers in the North East are downbeat in their hiringconfidence for the upcoming quarter, anticipating a NetEmployment Outlook of -3%. The Outlook is at its weakestlevel since Quarter 1 2002, and reflects a considerable10 percentage point decline quarter-over-quarter, and a 17 percentage point decline year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook in theNorth East is also -3%, and the quarter-over-quarterand year-over-year declines are the same – by 10 and17 percentage points, respectively. 13% of employersplan to add to their payroll this quarter and 16% tomake cut-backs. Just 65% of employers plan to keeptheir staffing levels the same – the weakest of all regionssurveyed this quarter.


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

7

Northern Ireland -4 (-4)%Employers in Northern Ireland are downbeat about their hiring plans in Quarter 4 2008, anticipating a NetEmployment Outlook of -4%, the weakest sinceNorthern Ireland was first included in the survey inQuarter 2 2003. This is weaker by seven percentagepoints quarter-over-quarter, and by 19 percentagepoints year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook forNorthern Ireland stands at -4%. This has declined bothquarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by eight and19 percentage points, respectively. The Outlook is theweakest since Northern Ireland was first included in thesurvey in Quarter 2 2003.

North West 0 (-2)%With a Net Employment Outlook of -2%, employers inthe North West are cautious about their hiring intentionsin Quarter 4 2008. The Outlook is weaker than at any point since Quarter 1 2002. Quarter-over-quarter,employers report a moderate six percentage pointdecline in their hiring intentions, and a nine percentagepoint decline year-over-year.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook isa flat 0, weaker by six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 10 percentage points year-over-year. This is the weakest Quarter 4 result since 2001.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Northern Ireland joined the survey in Q2 2003.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


8

South West +7 (6)%Employers in the South West report one of thestrongest Net Employment Outlooks in the UK forQuarter 4 2008, standing at a modest +6%. TheOutlook is an improvement of two percentage pointsquarter-over-quarter, but is a moderate sevenpercentage points weaker year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +7%.It has remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter (a decline of one percentage point), although it is sevenpercentage points weaker year-over-year.

Wales -5 (-2)%In Wales, employers report a Net Employment Outlook of-2%, the first negative Outlook reported in the region andthe weakest since Wales was included in the survey in Quarter 2 2002. The Outlook reflects considerablequarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declines, by 12 and 11 percentage points, respectively.

The Outlook based on unadjusted survey data is -5%,the first negative Outlook reported in the region and the weakest since Wales was included in the survey inQuarter 2 2002. The Outlook is considerably weakerboth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 16 and 11 percentage points, respectively.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


-10

0

10

20

30

40

Wales joined the survey in Q2 2002.

Scotland -4 (4)%Scotland employers are showing some encouraging signsin their hiring intentions, with a Net Employment Outlook of+4%. The Outlook has improved by a moderate fivepercentage points over the past three months, but is aslight three percentage points weaker year-over-year.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is amore pessimistic -4%, following a quarter-over-quarterdecline of six percentage points and a year-over-yeardecrease of three percentage points.

South East -9 (-2)%South East employers are cautious about their hiringintentions for the fourth Quarter of 2008 reporting a NetEmployment Outlook of -2%. This is the weakestreported Outlook for the region since Quarter 1 1993.The Outlook has declined considerably both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 10 and 14 percentagepoints, respectively.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook for the South East is a downbeat -9%, following aconsiderable 17 percentage point decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 15 percentage point decline year-over-year.


-10

0

10

20

30

40

Scotland joined the survey in Q2 2002.


-10

0

10

20

30

40

9

West Midlands -2 (0)%In the West Midlands, employers report their weakest NetEmployment Outlook since Quarter 1 1998. At a flat 0,employers are conservative about their hiring plans forQuarter 4 2008. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook hasonly declined slightly, by two percentage points, butyear-over-year, there has been a considerable 23percentage point decrease.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook forthe West Midlands stands at -2%, which is moderatelyweaker than in the previous quarter, by five percentagepoints, but a considerable 29 percentage points weakeryear-over-year.

Yorkshire & Humberside 0 (3)%In Yorkshire & Humberside, employers expect a moderatelevel of hiring activity in the forthcoming quarter, with aNet Employment Outlook of +3%. This has remainedrelatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but is considerablyweaker year-over-year by 16 percentage points.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is 0, aslight two percentage point improvement on three monthsago, but 22 percentage points weaker year-over-year.This is the weakest Quarter 4 result since 1992.


-10

0

10

20

30

40


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


10

Employers in five of the nine industry sectors surveyedreport positive expectations for hiring activity in the fourthquarter of 2008. Utilities employers are the most upbeatof those surveyed, anticipating a Net EmploymentOutlook of +14%. In the Community & Social sector,employers are cautiously optimistic about their hiringplans, recording an Outlook of +6%. Employers in theConstruction sector are the least optimistic of thosesurveyed, reporting an Outlook of -7%. Employers inthe Mining sector are also downbeat about their hiringintentions recording an Outlook of -3%.

In comparison with Quarter 3 2008, confidence amongUtilities sector employers has increased by a considerable13 percentage points. But in all other sectors surveyedthe Outlooks have weakened. This is particularly evidentin the Finance & Business Services sector, where employerhiring confidence has declined by 12 percentage points,and in both the Mining and Construction sectors, whereboth Outlooks have weakened by 11 percentage points.

Year-over-year, only employers in the Utilities sector havereported an improved hiring confidence with the Outlookincreasing by seven percentage points. Elsewhere,weaker hiring expectations are the rule, most notableagain in the Finance & Business Services (23 percentagepoints weaker), Mining and Construction sectors (both19 percentage points weaker). Employers in the Hotels& Retail sector also report a considerable nine percentagepoint decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2007.

Looking at the unadjusted survey data, employers in theConstruction industry are the least optimistic recording anOutlook of -10%. Negative Outlooks are also reportedby employers in the Mining, the Hotels & Retail and theAgriculture sectors. On the other hand, employers in theUtilities sector are cautiously optimistic about their hiringplans reporting an Outlook of +9%. Quarter-over-quarter,employers in all but two sectors are reporting weakerOutlooks, with the steepest declines observed in theConstruction and Mining sectors, by 18 and 13 percentagepoints, respectively. Year-over-year, employers in eightof the nine sectors report a weakening in hiring confidence.

-15 15

Community & Social

-4 -3

National Average

3 3

Construction

-3 -1

Transport & Communications

-1 0

-7

2 6

-10

Agriculture -2 2

Hotels & Retail

9 14

Utilities

3 4

Manufacturing

0 0

Finance & Business Services

Mining


-10 -5 0 5 10

Sector Comparisons

11

Agriculture -2 (2)%Employers in the Agriculture industry sector are cautiouslyoptimistic about their hiring intentions for the fourth quarterof 2008 recording a Net Employment Outlook of +2%.The Outlook has declined by a slight three percentagepoints quarter-over-quarter, and is two percentagepoints weaker year-over-year.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is -2%, a considerable 11 percentage point declinequarter-over-quarter, and a two percentage pointdecline year-over-year.

Community & Social +2 (6)%Community & Social industry sector employers anticipatemoderate hiring intentions for the quarter ahead with aNet Employment Outlook of +6%. However, this quarter’sOutlook is at its weakest level since Quarter 3 1999,declining by a slight two percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by a moderate five percentage pointsyear-over-year.

On an unadjusted basis, employers are cautious abouttheir hiring plans reporting an Outlook of +2%, reflectinga decline both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year,of five and nine percentage points, respectively.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

The Agriculture sector joined the survey in Q2 2002.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


12

Construction -10 (-7)%Construction industry sector employers are pessimisticabout their hiring plans reporting a Net EmploymentOutlook of -7% – the weakest since Quarter 2 2001.Hiring confidence has declined considerably bothquarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 11 and 19 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is -10%,considerably weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year – by 18 and 19 percentage points, respectively.

Finance & Business Services 0 (0)%Employers in the Finance & Business Services industrysector are cautious about their hiring plans this quarter,reporting a Net Employment Outlook of 0. This is theweakest Outlook reported for the sector since Quarter 11999. This Outlook is considerably more cautious than inQuarter 3 2008, with a decline of 12 percentage points,and there has been a significant year-over-year decreaseof 23 percentage points.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlookalso stands at 0, and has declined quarter-over-quarterand year-over-year, by 12 and 23 percentage points,respectively.

Looking at the data in more depth, employers in theFinance sub-sector are cautiously optimistic about theirhiring plans for the next three months, with an Outlookof +9%; this represents a slight two percentage pointimprovement quarter-over-quarter, and a onepercentage point decrease over the same time lastyear. Employers in the Business Services sub-sector are downbeat about their hiring plans with an Outlookof -1% – a considerable 14 percentage points weakerquarter-over-quarter, and a decline of 24 percentagepoints year-over-year.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

13

Hotels & Retail -3 (-1)%Employers in the Hotels & Retail industry sector arereporting disappointing hiring intentions in Quarter 42008, with a Net Employment Outlook of -1%. TheOutlook is at its weakest level since Quarter 1 1995.Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is three percentagepoints weaker, while year-over-year it has declined by a more considerable nine percentage points.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, hiring intentionsare similarly downbeat with an Outlook of -3% – a sevenand nine percentage points quarter-over-quarter andyear-over-year decrease, respectively.

Closer examination of the data reveals that hiringconfidence is the weakest in the B2C sub-sector whereemployers anticipate a weak Outlook of -5%. This is a decline by nine percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. In the B2B sub-sector, the Outlook is flat, at 0, which reflects a decline of sixpercentage points quarter-over-quarter and a moreconsiderable 13 percentage point decrease year-over-year. In the Hotels & Restaurants sub-sector, employersare anticipating a mild level of hiring activity, with anOutlook of +2%, slightly weaker than three months agoby three percentage points, and five percentage pointsweaker year-over-year.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Manufacturing +3 (4)%The coming quarter will be one of moderate hiringconfidence for employers in the Manufacturing industrysector with a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. The Outlook is weaker than at any point since Quarter 3 2002. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has remained relatively stable declining by one percentagepoint. The Outlook has declined by seven percentagepoints year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +3%, reflecting a slight four percentage point declinequarter-over-quarter and a moderate year-over-yeardecrease of seven percentage points.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


14

Mining -4 (-3)%Employers in the Mining industry sector are reportingdisappointing hiring intentions with a Net EmploymentOutlook of -3%, the weakest since the sector was firstincluded in the survey in Quarter 2 2002. This followsconsiderable declines in hiring confidence both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 11 and 19 percentagepoints, respectively.

Looking at the unadjusted data, employers are alsoreporting weak hiring intentions with an Outlook of -4%.This is 13 percentage points weaker than the previousquarter, and a decline of 19 percentage points year-over-year.

Transport & Communications +3 (3)%Confidence among employers in the Transport &Communication industry sector is weaker than at any timesince Quarter 3 2003 with a Net Employment Outlookof +3%. While the Outlook has remained relatively stablequarter-over-quarter declining by one percentage point,it has declined by a moderate seven percentage pointsyear-over-year.

Looking at the unadjusted survey data, the Outlook of +3% is unchanged quarter-over-quarter, but hiringconfidence has decreased by a considerable 11percentage points year-over-year.

Looking at the data in more detail, hiring confidenceamong employers in the Transport sub-sector is +3%,unchanged quarter-over-quarter, but 11 percentagepoints weaker year-over-year. In the Telecommunicationssub-sector, the Outlook is also unchanged quarter-over-quarter, at +5%, but is moderately weaker year-over-year by five percentage points.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-30-20-10

010203040506070

The Mining sector joined the survey in Q2 2002.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-30-20-10

010203040506070

15

Utilities +9 (14)%In the Utilities industry sector, employers reportfavourable hiring prospects for the upcoming quarter,with a Net Employment Outlook of +14%, the strongestreported by any industry sector in the UK in Quarter 42008. This follows a considerable 13 percentage pointuplift quarter-over-quarter, and a moderate sevenpercentage point improvement year-over-year.

On the basis of unadjusted survey data, the Outlookstands at +9%, which is five percentage points strongerthan in Quarter 3 2008, and seven percentage pointsstronger year-over-year. 12% of employers plan to add to their staffing numbers whilst 3% intend to make reductions.


’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08-30-20-10

010203040506070

The Utilities sector joined the survey in Q2 2002.


16

Global Employment Outlook

Americas

Asia Pacific

Australia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA*

Austria

Belgium

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

UK

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Net Employment Outlook



Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

12 (15)1

%

7 (6)1

7 (6)1

4 (4)1

11 (9)1

8 (8)1

3 (5)1

%

%

20 (22)1

9 (17)1

12 (15)1

27 (25)1

47 (45)1

37 (37)1

25 (24)1

3 (1)1

16 (13)1

0 (-3)1

13 (11)1

7 (5)1

3 (1)1

11 (12)1

%

9 (9)1

7 (8)1

3 (4)1

8 (8)1

11 (10)1

5 (4)1

%

%

18 (17)1

8 (13)1

9 (10)1

15 (16)1

48 (43)1

16 (25)1

17 (23)1

-7 (-3)1

8 (10)1

-9 (-5)1

9 (10)1

-1 (0)1

-5 (-2)1

21 (13)1

20 (21)1

40

13 (14)1

15 (14)1

29

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

-1 (-3)1

2 (3)1

0 (2)1

-1 (0)1

-3 (-1)1

3 (2)1

2 (-1)1

-2 (-5)1

-1 (-4)1

-3 (-5)1

-12 (-9)1

1 (-2)1

-21 (-12)1

-8 (-1)1

-10 (-4)1

-8 (-3)1

-9 (-2)1

-4 (-1)1

-8 (-5)1

-8 (-3)1

-1 (-1)1

1 (1)1

2 (2)1

-1 (-1)1

-4 (-4)1

3 (3)1

-8 (-8)1

-11 (-11)1

-14 (-13)1

-17 (-16)1

-9 (-9)1

1 (1)1

-33 (-28)1

6 (7)1

-12 (-11)1

-10 (-12)1

-18 (-18)1

-5 (-5)1

-14 (-14)1

-4 (-4)1

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 13 quarters worth of data is required.

Quarter 4 2007

%

Quarter 4 2007

%

29 (28)1

11 (16)1

13 (12)1

12 (13)1

47 (42)124 (25)1

22 (26)1

26 (26)1

49 (53)1

Quarter 4 2007

%

8 (8)1

5 (6)1

4 (5)1Czech Republic 3 1 -2 ––

12 (12)1

5 (8)1Greece 19 12 -7 ––

8 (7)1

18 (22)1

9 (13)1South Africa 17 17 0 -1027

Poland 29 19 -10 ––

Romania 26 21 -5 ––

14 (15)1

13 (14)1

-1 (2)1

16 (17)1

21 (20)1

Costa Rica 27 29 2 -534

Colombia – 22 – ––

55

United States 16 (12)1 9 (9)1 -7 (-3)1 -9 (-9)118 (18)1

Canada

Mexico

Peru

-8 (1)1

-5 (-7)1

-11

-3 (-3)125 1932Argentina -6 -13

-6 (-6)113 12–Guatemala -1 –

-26

17

Asia Pacific28%

EMEA28%

Americas44%

Survey Respondents by Region

Research for the Quarter 4 2008 ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly55,000 human resource directors and senior hiringmanagers from public and private organisationsworldwide. 44% of the respondents came from eightcountries in the Americas; 28% from eight countriesand territories across Asia Pacific; and 28% from 17 countries in EMEA.

Nearly 55,000 employers have been interviewed across33 countries and territories to measure anticipatedemployment trends* between October and December 2008.

Employers in 29 countries and territories Manpowersurveyed expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 42008, while three countries report negative hiringexpectations. However, the majority of employers expectto ease the pace of hiring compared to three months ago,with employers in 25 countries and territories reportingweaker outlooks compared to Quarter 3. Five countriesand territories indicate improved hiring plans from threemonths ago. Where year-over-year data is available,Outlooks in 22 countries and territories have declinedcompared to last year at this time.

Quarter 4 employment prospects are strongest in India,Costa Rica, Peru, Singapore, Taiwan, Colombia,Romania, Poland, Argentina, Australia and South Africa.Employer hiring expectations are weakest in Spain,Ireland and Italy, with Spanish employers reporting their least optimistic Outlook since the survey beganthere in 2003.

On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continueto report positive Net Employment Outlooks; however,they are all weaker than those reported 12 months ago.Employers in Peru and Costa Rica are the mostoptimistic about adding employees in the region.Meanwhile, the Outlook in the U.S. is the weakest in five years and hiring expectations in Mexico, whilehealthy, signal the first contraction of strong employerhiring patterns in four years. Across Asia Pacific,employers expect to continue to add to their payrolls;however, all plan a hiring slowdown compared to threemonths ago. Job prospects are strongest in India,Singapore and Taiwan. In the Europe, Middle East &Africa (EMEA) region, Outlooks decline in 12 of 17countries from three months ago with UK employersreporting the gloomiest Outlook in 14 years. Outlooksalso decline in 10 countries when a year-over-yearcomparison is made. On the other hand, Outlooksimprove or remain stable in eight EMEA countriescompared to Quarter 3 – Austria, Belgium and theNetherlands improve and France, Germany, South Africa,Sweden and Switzerland are relatively stable. Notably,employers in the Netherlands are reporting their mostoptimistic Outlook since the survey began there in 2003.

* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted datawhere available.


18

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Austria Belgium

France

Germany

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted withemployers across 17 EMEA countries to measureanticipated employment trends for Quarter 4 2008.

Employers in 13 countries are anticipating varyingdegrees of positive hiring activity for the next threemonths; however, hiring expectations are generallyweaker across the region compared to Quarter 3 andthis time last year. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison,forecasts have improved or remain relatively stable ineight countries.

Romanian employers are reporting the strongest hiringexpectations in the EMEA region, while the weakest – andonly negative hiring expectations found in Europe andglobally – are reported by employers in Spain, Irelandand Italy. The forecast from Spanish employers is themost pessimistic since the survey began in Spain in 2003.Hiring is also expected to slow considerably in the UK withemployers reporting their weakest Outlook in 14 years.

Interestingly, hiring sentiments have improved fromthree months ago in the Manufacturing sector inAustria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Swedenand Switzerland, and the sector performance is helpingto bolster the Outlooks for these countries.

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Czech Republic

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Greece

International Comparisons – EMEA

19

South Africa Spain50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Netherlands Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Italy50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland

Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Romania


20

Sweden Switzerland

UK

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

21

Over 24,000 interviews have been conducted acrossArgentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala,Mexico, Peru and the United States to measureemployment prospects for Quarter 4 2008. While positiveNet Employment Outlooks are reported in all countriessurveyed, employers in all countries where year-over-yeardata is available expect to slow the pace of hiring fromQuarter 4 2007, with notable declines seen in Peru and Argentina. Compared to three months ago, onlyCanadian and Costa Rican employers are reportingimproved hiring plans.

Employers in Colombia are surveyed for the first timethis quarter and report one of the most optimistic NetEmployment Outlooks in the region; only employers in Costa Rica and Peru are more optimistic aboutadding employees in the quarter ahead. On the otherhand, employers in Guatemala and the U.S. are theleast optimistic about adding employees. The Outlookfor the U.S. – the least optimistic in five years – isslightly weaker compared to Quarter 3 but considerablyweaker compared to Quarter 4 2007. Employer hiring expectations in Mexico, while still positive, are moderately weaker year-over-year and those in Canada are just slightly less optimistic.

International Comparisons – Americas

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Argentina 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Canada

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Colombia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Costa Rica


22

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mexico

Peru

Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Guatemala

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USA

23

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Australia China

Hong Kong India

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted acrossthe Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiringactivity between October and December 2008.

While hiring prospects remain positive in the Asia Pacificregion, they are weaker compared to three months agoin all eight of the countries and territories surveyed;however, the decline is less pronounced in India andTaiwan. The trend is similar when a year-over-yearcomparison is made – weaker Outlooks across the regionwith only Indian and Taiwanese employers expecting tolift the pace of hiring. The hiring forecast in the Services

sector is notably weaker in the region compared to one year ago and a fall in confidence in this key growthsector has a major impact on these labour markets.

Employers in India, Singapore and Taiwan are anticipatingthe most robust hiring activity in the region for theupcoming quarter, while those in New Zealand, Chinaand Japan report the least optimistic hiring intentions.Notably, New Zealand employers are reporting their mostsubdued hiring plans since the survey was establishedthere in Quarter 2 2004.

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific


24

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Singapore Taiwan

Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New Zealand

25

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforces duringthe next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys ofemployment activity in the world. Various factors underpin thesuccess of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and areaof focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is themost extensive, forward-looking employment survey in theworld, asking employers to forecast employment over thenext quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus onretrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derivedall of its information from a single question.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which itis conducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 55,000public and private employers across 33 countries and territoriesto measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specificsectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedusing a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 33 countries and territories where the survey is currentlyconducted includes Manpower’s internal research team andInfocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representativeof each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

In the UK, the national survey includes 2,104 employers. With this number of interviews, the margin of error for the UK survey is +/- 2.1%.

Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, “How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end ofDecember 2008 as compared to the current quarter?”

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net EmploymentOutlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtractingfrom this the percentage of employers that expect to see adecrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data forAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,Taiwan, United Kingdom and the United States to provideadditional insight into the survey data. These adjustmentsmake it possible to review the data without the employmentfluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year,thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time.Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the datafor other countries in the future, as more historical data iscompiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, Manpower adoptedthe TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

About the Survey


26

History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent ofthe United States survey, naming the report the QuarterlySurvey of Employment Prospects. The survey adoptsthe same forward-looking research format as the UnitedStates survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey launched in the United States and Canada.Research methodology is updated to evolve withadvancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of EmploymentProspects is updated to adopt an enhanced researchmethodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico andIreland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, HongKong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdomand United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch theManpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland andTaiwan launch the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey.

2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and SouthAfrica join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in thethird quarter.

2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealandadds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.

2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech Republic,Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania join thesurvey program. China and Taiwan add seasonallyadjusted data in the second quarter. India andSwitzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employmentservices industry; creating and delivering services that enableits clients to win in the changing world of work. Celebrating its60th anniversary in 2008, the $21 billion company offersemployers a range of services for the entire employment andbusiness cycle including permanent, temporary and contractrecruitment; employee assessment and selection; training;outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’sworldwide network of 4,500 offices in 80 countries and territoriesenables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clientsper year, including small and medium size enterprises in allindustry sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinationalcorporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on raisingproductivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients toconcentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc.operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional,Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More informationon Manpower Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.

About Manpower UKManpower is one of the largest and most innovative companiesin the UK’s employment services industry; creating anddelivering services that enable its clients to win in the changingworld of work. The company provides a wide range of servicesincluding permanent, temporary and contract recruitment,employee assessment and selection, training, outplacement,outsourcing and consulting.

Manpower was established in the UK in 1956, and today workswith organisations in both the public and private sectors,ranging from small and medium-sized enterprises, to multi-national organisations such as BMW, BT, Hertfordshire CountyCouncil, IBM, Royal Mail and Xerox.

The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivitythrough improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction,enabling customers to concentrate on their core business.Manpower works across all industries finding people for everylevel of an organisation.

Manpower Professional, a division of Manpower UK, offerscomprehensive, expert recruitment services in the accountancyand finance sectors, backed by award-winning training,assessment and selection.

Manpower UK has a network of over 300 offices and is asubsidiary of Manpower Inc, a worldwide network of 4,500offices in 80 countries and territories.

For more information, see manpower.co.uk

About Manpower Inc.


28

Manpower UK Ltd., Capital Court, Windsor Street, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 1ABTel: 01895 205 200 Fax: 01895 205 201www.manpower.co.uk

© 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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