q4 2015 presentation final - telia company · 2016-03-09 · q3 15 q4 15 q1 15 q2 15 q3 15 q4 15 q1...

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1 Year-end Report January-December 2015 Johan Dennelind, President & CEO Q4 Deliver on potential Transform & step up Transform & perform Stabilize & shape Big changes 2014 2015 2016 2013 2017 2018 THE NEW TELIASONERA 2015 – high pace towards the new TeliaSonera Started to reduce presence in region Eurasia Continued business transformation Solid development in core markets

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Page 1: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

1

Year-end ReportJanuary-December 2015

Johan Dennelind, President & CEO Q4

Deliver onpotentialTransform

& step upTransform& performStabilize

& shapeBigchanges

2014

2015

2016

2013

2017

2018T H E N E W

T E L I A S O N E R A

2015 – high pace towards the new TeliaSonera

• Started to reduce presence in region Eurasia

• Continued business transformation

• Solid development in core markets

Page 2: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

2

Summary Q4 and FY15 – continuing operations

3

S E R V I C E R E V E N U E G R O W T H

E B I T D A * G R O W T H

F R E E C A S H F L O W

Reported +4.4%Organic +1.1%

Reported +11.1%Organic +9.0%

SEK 1.8 billion

*Excluding non-recurring items

Reported +4.2%Organic -0.4%

Reported +3.8%Organic +0.1%

SEK 12.5 billion

Q4 2015 FY 2015

10.0%

2.1%

9.0%

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Solid trend in core markets

EBITDA** growth y-o-y

4

Sweden Europe Total continuing

operations

Service revenue growth* y-o-y

2.5%

-1.0%

1.1%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Sweden

Europe

Total continuing operations

* Local organic ** Local organic excluding non-recurring items

Page 3: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

3

Strong consumer propositions

2.2%

5.2%

9.5%

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Sweden ARPU growth y-o-y

5

TV

B2C Sweden supported by fiber growth

7.2%

1.7%

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

• Acceleration of growth in B2C explained by record pace in fiber roll-out

B2C Service revenue growth* y-o-y

6

* External service revenues

Excl. fiber installation charges

Incl. fiber installation charges

Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Telia passed, not connectedCommunication operatorTelia connected (MDUs + SDUs)

• 185,000 new homes passed in 2015, of which more than 60,000 in Q4

• Roll-out to be further stepped up in 2016

1.3 million1.3 million

1.1 million1.1 million

TeliaSonera fiber households

Page 4: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

4

Sweden B2B tough, signs of recovery in SME/SoHo

-2.9%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

• Still competitive in large and public segments

B2B Service revenue* growth y-o-y

7

* External service revenues

SME/SOHO

• Strengthened offerings support performance in SME/SoHo

SME/SoHo Service revenue* growth y-o-y

-0.8%

-4.8%

2.1%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Total Fixed Mobile

1.2%1.7% 2.0%

3.5%

-3.1% -2.7%-1.8%

2.9%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Billed revenuesMobile service revenues

Improved performance in Finland

Mobile service revenue* growth organic y-o-y

• Mobile service revenues supported by upsell activities and price adjustments

• Q4 mobile service revenue growth from higher billed and wholesale revenues

8

• Positive mobile service revenue growth offset by pressure in fixed and B2B

• EBITDA growth from improved equipment margins and lower costs

Service revenues* & EBITDA**, SEK million

* External service revenues **Excluding non-recurring items

876 956

Q4 14 Q4 15

+9.3%+9.3%

Service revenues EBITDA

= Local organic growth

2,800 2,771

Q4 14 Q4 15

-1.6%-1.6%

Page 5: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

5

Integration of Tele2 in Norway successfully completed

• Q4 organic EBITDA impacted by lower service revenues and higher marketing spend

• Q4 EBITDA margin stable at around 30 percent

9

Service revenues* & EBITDA**, SEK million

543

681

Q4 14 Q4 15

-2.1%-2.1%

Service revenues EBITDA

1,417

1,828

Q4 14 Q4 15

EBITDA**, SEK million

• Approximately SEK 750 million realized in 2015

• Synergies on track to reach full run-rate of SEK 1 billion in 2016

2,130

2,761

FY 2014 FY 2015

-2.1%-2.1%

* External service revenues **Excluding non-recurring items = Local organic growth

Process to leave region Eurasia is progressing

• Announcement in September to reduce presencein region Eurasia

• Divestment of Ncell announced on December 21

• The deal is subject to approvals and is expected to be closed in the first half of 2016

• Positive net cash effect expected to be approximately SEK 7.5 billion

• Process is on-going in remaining markets

10

Page 6: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

6

Still challenges in several markets in Eurasia Q4

* External service revenues **Local organic excluding non-recurring items

11

Region Eurasia – Service rev*. & EBITDA**

-3% -6%

Service revenuesQ4-15

EBITDAQ4-15

Nepal – Service revenues* & EBITDA**

2%

22%

Service revenuesQ4-15

EBITDAQ4-15

Kazakhstan – Service revenues* & EBITDA**

-14%

-30%

Service revenuesQ4-15

EBITDAQ4-15

Azerbaijan – Service revenues* & EBITDA**

-8% -5%

Service revenuesQ4-15

EBITDAQ4-15

Targets for transformation remain unchanged

12

• Approximately SEK 700 million invested in 2015

• Net run-rate saving in the range of SEK 200 million achieved end of 2015

Area Status Targets 2017/2018

Fewer products and offerings 11% 80%

Fewer IT systems 10% 50%

Share of services and sales online 23% >50%

Fewer products and offerings 13% 80%

Fewer IT systems 8% 80%

Share of services and sales online 15% >50%

-2.0

2.0

Accumulated

investments

2015-2016

Net savings run-rate

to be reached end 2017

Investments & savings, SEK billion

• In addition, initiatives on a central level relating to IT infrastructure consolidation and modernization is ongoing

Page 7: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

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New company – new dividend policy

Dividend proposal 2015

• SEK 3.00 per share for fiscal year 2015, to be paid in 2016

• Dividend to be split in two equal tranches and paid in Q2 and Q4 2016, respectively

Changed dividend policy

• Target annual dividend corresponding to at least 80 percent of free cash flow from continuing operations

• Dividend to be split in two equal tranches to be paid in Q2 and Q4, respectively

• The ambition is a dividend of at least SEK 2 per share for the fiscal year 2016, to be paid in 2017

Leverage target

• Solid investment grade rating of A- or BBB+

• Net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2x plus/minus 0.5x

13

Outlook 2016

* Excluding non-recurring items, in local currencies, excluding acquisitions and disposals** Excluding license and spectrum fees, currency fluctuations may impact the reported number in Swedish krona

14

Ambition to maintain 2015 levelEBITDA*

SEK 14-15 billion

>80% of FCF - at least SEK 2 per share

CAPEX**

DIV IDEND

Page 8: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

8

Year-end ReportJanuary-December 2015

Christian Luiga,

Senior Vice President & CFO Q4

Page 9: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

9

Full year summary 2015

17

-1.5%

Europe Other Eurasia FY15total

FY14total

Sweden

Service revenue* growth EBITDA** growth

* Local organic ** Local organic excluding non-recurring items

• EBITDA from continuing operations around last year’s level

• Total EBITDA lower due to region Eurasia

• Service revenue growth for continuing and discontinued operations was negative by 0.7 percent driven by Europe and Eurasia

FY15total

SwedenFY14total

Europe EurasiaOther

-0.7%

Continuing operations

-0.4%

Discontinuedoperations Continuing operations

+0.1%

Discontinuedoperations

Positive development in continuing operations

Organic EBITDA* growth y-o-y

9.0%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

18

* Excluding non-recurring items

• Profitability supported by improved service revenues – high pace in fiber roll-out

• Better equipment margin

• Overall good cost control

Page 10: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

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CAPEX increase due to fiber roll-out

CAPEX excl. licenses - Continuing operations

19

2014 2015

2.6

5.5

6.2

4.7

2.4

4.9

Other

Europe

Sweden

12.0

14.3

CAPEX excluding licenses - Sweden

Fiber 4G Other

• Higher CAPEX excluding licenses in Sweden mainly due to high fiber roll-out

• Focus on reinvestments as well as 4G coverage and capacity in all European markets

• Possible spectrum investments in Sweden and Europe in 2016

SEK billion

Full year cash flow supported by Turkcell dividend

Total free cash flow FY15**, SEK billion

• Turkcell dividend of SEK 4.7 billion net of tax received in Q2 main driver behind higher free cash flow 2015

* Excluding non-recurring items, ** Continuing and discontinued operations

20

-0.8

Dividends received

1.1

EBITDA* Interest paid

FY15total

16.6

Change in

WC

-2.5

Other

4.80.1

Cash CAPEX

FY14total

13.0

1.0

Total free cash flow**, SEK billion

• Region Eurasia accounted for approximately one-third of free cash flow in Q4

5.7

6.9

4.0

Q4 15 FY 15

Eurasia

Dividends from associated companies

Other16.616.6

2.72.7

Page 11: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

11

Net debt reduced by SEK 5.8 billion in Q4

Net debt* change q-o-q, SEK billion

• Reduced net debt due to strong operating cash flow, including dividend from MegaFon, and early payment of last tranche from AF Telecom

• Net cash in Eurasia amounts to approximately SEK 10.6 billion, of which SEK 6.6 billion related to Nepal and Uzbekistan

21

-2.3-8.25.5

CF from operating activities**

AF Telecom payment**

Cash CAPEX

-0.8

FX & Other Q4 15total

55.7

Q3 15total

61.5

* Continuing and discontinued operations ** Excluding interest received from AF Telecom

Reduced leverage

22

* Net debt to rolling twelve months EBITDA excl. non-recurring items (Continuing and discontinued operations)

1.53

1.0

1.5

2.0

FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

Net debt/EBITDA*

• Net debt/EBITDA reduced to 1.53x from 1.70x end Q3

• Long-term credit rating target A- to BBB+

• Target Net debt/EBITDA of 2.0 +/-0.5

• Proposal to split dividend payment in two equal tranches to align with cash flow generation and reduce liquidity risk

• Distribution in Q2 and Q4

Page 12: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

12

Q4 EPS impacted by non-recurring items

Earnings per share*, SEK

23

0.13

-0.70

0.68

Q4 15total

Discontinuedoperations

Net financials

0.09

OperationalQ4 14total

Non-recurring items

-0.07-0.08

FX

-0.04

Associates

-0.37

Taxes

-1.02

* Continuing and discontinued operations

Continuing operations

• Nonrecurring items mainly attributable to SEK 1.9 billion Danish non-cash impairment charge (SEK 0.44/share)

• Discontinued operations primarily due to SEK 5.3 billion non-cash impairment charge related to the Uzbek operations (SEK 1.23 share)

Summary Q4

24

SOLID PERFORMANCE IN CORE OPERATIONS

HIGHER FREE CASH FLOW & REDUCED NET DEBT

2016: AMBIT ION TO MAINTAIN EBITDA AT 2015 LEVEL

Page 13: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

13

Outlook 2016

* Excluding non-recurring items, in local currencies, excluding acquisitions and disposals** Excluding license and spectrum fees, currency fluctuations may impact the reported number in Swedish krona

25

Ambition to maintain 2015 levelEBITDA*

SEK 14-15 billion

>80% of FCF - at least SEK 2 per share

CAPEX**

DIV IDEND

Q & A

Page 14: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

14

Debt maturity scheduleMMO

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 2061 2064

SEK billion

SEK billion

27

Debt maturing next 12 months – 2016

Debt portfolio maturity schedule – 2016 and onwards

Debt per Q4 2015

• Gross debt SEK 96.9 billion

• Net debt SEK 55.7 billion

• Net debt/EBITDA 1.53x

Liquidity position TeliaSonera

Committed bank lines Maturity Size Amount undrawn

Syndicated revolving credit facility

Dec 2017 EUR 1 billion EUR 1 billion

Revolving credit facility June 2017 EUR 1 billion EUR 634 million

Total liquidity surplus, approximately SEK 28.4 billion

December 31, 2015

28

Page 15: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

15

Funding currencies TeliaSonera

29

EUR, 71%

SEK, 12%

GBP, 5%

KZT, 4%

USD, 4% NOK, 2% JPY, 2%

Financial summary Q4 2015

30

* Excluding non-recurring items

Oct-Dec 2015 Oct-Dec 2014 Change (%)

Net sales (SEK million) 22,655 21,399 +5.9

Change local organic (%) +2.9

Service revenues (SEK million) 18,521 17,738 +4.4

Change local organic (%) +1.1

EBITDA* (SEK million) 6,556 5,902 +11.1

Change local organic (%) +9.0

EBITDA* Margin (%) 28.9 27.6 +1.3pp

EPS (SEK) -0.70 0.68 -

Free cash flow (SEK million) 2,691 1,635 +64.6

Page 16: Q4 2015 presentation FINAL - Telia Company · 2016-03-09 · Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Solid trend in core markets ... Earnings per share*, SEK 23

16

Financial key ratios

31

Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014

Return on equity*, % 9.3 15.0

Return on capital employed*, % 8.9 12.2

Equity/assets ratio, % 35.1 38.0

Net debt/equity ratio, % 62.5 57.4

Net debt/EBITDA** ratio, multiple 1.53 1.68

Net debt/assets ratio, % 21.9 21.8

* Rolling 12 months ** Rolling 12 months, excluding non-recurring items

Forward-looking statements

Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including

future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they

relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can

be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or

implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are

outside the control of TeliaSonera.