Qi Li, UCD Geary Institute

Kasper Richter, World Bank

Patrick Paul Walsh, UCD Geary Institute

Fertility, Ageing and Socio-Economic Conditions in Thailand

Third Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development

Dublin, Ireland January 16-18, 2009

How do Thai Firms Perceive the Investment Climate?

Thai firms identify several categories of concerns:

• Dissatisfaction with overall economic situation (macroeconomic instability, economic policy uncertainty, insufficient demand for products, competition from imports)

• Inadequate supply of skills (skills and education of available workers, skilled labor shortage)

• Concerns with regulations and bureaucratic burden (tax administration and tax rates, bureaucratic burden, labor regulations, import regulations)

• Infrastructure and support services (electricity, utility prices, lack of business support services, lack of finance, inadequate supply of infrastructure)

Age Structure by Urban and Rural in Year 1991, 1995 and 2000

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15

0. 2

0. 25

0- 10 10- 20 20- 30 30- 40 40- 50 50- 60 60+

1991

1995

2000

Rural

0

0. 05

0. 1

0. 15

0. 2

0. 25

0- 10 10- 20 20- 30 30- 40 40- 50 50- 60 60+

1991

1995

2000

Urban

Ageing Index by Area

.06

.08

.1

.12

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

Urban Rural

ageing_index

period Graphs by muni

Fertility by Season and Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000

.04

.05

.06

.07

.08

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

fert

ility

periodGraphs by area

One year Inward Migration by Region and Age Cohort during 1991 – 2000

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

Age 10 –20 Age 20 –30

0.0550 0.0841

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

Age 50 – 60 0.0142

* 1: Urban Areas; 2: Rural Areas

0.0394

0.0

5.1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.0222

Under Three Years Inward Migration by Region and Age Cohort during 1991 – 2000

Age 10 –20 Age 20 – 30

0.1542 0.2696

0.2

.4

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.2

.4

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.2

.4

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.2

.4

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

0.2

.41990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

imm

i_are

a

periodGraphs by area

Age 50 – 60 0.0474

* 1: Urban Areas; 2: Rural Areas

0.1341 0.0717

Waged and Unwaged Income Level in Thailand during 1991 – 2000

11.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

waged/u

nw

aged

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000period

waged unwaged

Waged and Unwaged Income Level By

Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000

Waged Unwaged

2000

4000

6000

8000

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

wage

area

periodGraphs by area

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

wage

upar

ea

periodGraphs by area

Waged and Unwaged Employment Share By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000 By

Year

.2.3

.4.5

.6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000period

waged_share_rural_y unwaged_share_rural_ywaged_share_urban_y unwaged_share_urban_y

Waged and Unwaged Income Level By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000

11

.21

.41

.61

.8

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

wage_women unwage_women

period

Graphs by area

* The initial levels are normalized to unit.

Childbearing Women Participation Rate By Urban and Rural Areas

.2.4

.6.8

1

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

part

ici_

wom

en

periodGraphs by area

Waged and Unwaged Employment Share of Childbearing

Women By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000 .3

.4.5

.6.7

1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

1 2

wageshare_women unwageshare_women

period

Graphs by area

Economic Effects on Age Structure Change through Fertility RateFertility Urban Rural

Short Immigration

3.130* Rural > Urban

Long Immigration

-2.765* Rural > Urban

Short Immigration

-1.913*Urban > Rural

Long Immigration

1.777*Urban > Rural

Waged income Young/Old 12.841* 2.728*

Unwaged income Young/Old -5.582* 0.321

Waged Income (Childbearing) -1.384* -0.621*

Unwaged Income (Childbearing) 1.249* -0.097

Pension -1.561* 1.296*

Childbearing Women

-1.633* -0.148*

Employment Structure

Waged/Unwaged

Public Sector -3.025* 0.241

Farm -0.211 0.205*

Bangkok -1.782*

North -0.646* 0.226

Northeast 0.105 0.520*

South -0.127 0.435*

Economic Effects on Age Structure through Mortality Rate (Urban)

•The corresponding economic variables at cohort level have been controlled, such as Waged income, Unwaged income, Pension and Education at cohort level. And we also control some cohort structure variables, such as gender structure of cohorts.

A: Urban

Mortality 15 – 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70

Waged Income -0.824* 0.082 -0.313* 0.032 -0.062* -0.378 Unwaged Income 0.341 0.236 0.322* -0.207* -0.112* -0.119

Pension 0.313 0.418 0.128 2.265 -3.556* -1.32* Gender 0.022 -0.194 -2.094* 3.852* -2.073* 0.00 Participation

Rate 0.442 0.123 -0.247 -0.534* 1.268 -1.646 Unemployment 0.286* -0.008 -0.424* 0.064 -0.633* 0.644 Education 0.023 0.079* -0.180* -0.298* -0.174* -0.531

Permanent Job Share -0.042 -0.367 1.234 -0.942* -3.206* 6.222

Working Time -0.065* -0.068* -0.013 -0.035 -0.072* 0.188 Public 2.966 -4.172 2.132 7.652 -0.167* 0.000 Private 0.584* -3.021* 1.182* -0.188 0.985 -0.865 Business 1.323** -2.575* 0.729* -1.267 -1.57 0.999

Farm -4.909 -1.717 7.179* -4.564 -2.557 2.393* Season Dummy 0.319* -0.109* -0.212* -0.072 -0.219* 0.226

Bangkok -1.399* -0.891* 0.172 0.091 -0.495* -0.247 North 0.550* 1.053* 1.452* 0.316* -0.16 3.147

Northeast -0.136 0.561* 1.812* -0.093 0.693* -0.801 South 0.343* 0.084 0.542*** 0.014 0.077 1.386

Constant -4.661 2.916** 4.276 1.074* -1.117* -4.824

Economic Effects on Age Structure through Mortality Rate (Rural)

•The corresponding economic variables at cohort level have been controlled, such as Waged income, Unwaged income, Pension and Education at cohort level. And we also control some cohort structure variables, such as gender structure of cohorts.

B: Rural

Mortality 15 – 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70

Waged Income 0.408 0.611 -0.329* 0.037 0.029 8.824 Unwaged Income 0.028 -0.302* 0.028 0.067 0.013 -1.32*

Pension -0.698* 0.558 -0.169* 2.699 2.322 -1.131 Gender -1.500* 0.461 1.974* -1.331* 1.779* -1.416

Participation Rate 0.083 -0.137 0.214 0.118 0.629* -0.892 Unemployment 0.034* -0.003 0.007 0.034* -0.111* -1.034 Education 0.011 0.110 0.239 -0.111* -0.276* 1.005

Working Time 0.01 0.019 -0.048* 0.036* 0.102* 1.337 Public 1.02 -0.602** -1.257* 0.807 0.875* -0.245 Private 0.865 0.187 2.836 6.863 -0.216 4.824 Business 0.279 3.507 0.517 1.624* 5.153 1.929

Farm 0.43 2.417 1.912 9.493* -1.262 1.874 Season Dummy 0.375* 0.046 -0.247* 0.091 0.241* -9.8

North 1.963* 0.400* 0.022 0.785* 0.43 -8.792 Northeast 3.158* 0.181 0.620* -0.191 -0.032 1.212

South 1.519* -0.438* -0.458* -0.336* -0.1 6.025 Constant -5.920* -5.353 -4.406 -1.365* -1.404* -2.665

(Sen) Economic and Human Development

Government Investment

Climate

Companies

GDP

Households

Education-Health

Economic Effects on Age Structure Change through Inward Migration Rate Age Cohort 15 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70

Relative Waged Income-0.389* 0.546* 0.585* 0.544* 0.032 -1.736*

Relative Unwaged Income0.051* -0.041 -0.112* 0.080* -0.166 -0.142

Relative Pension0.024 -0.093* -0.086* 0.294* 0.054* -0.346*

Participation Rate1.667* -0.428* -0.375 2.125* -1.999* -1.885

Education0.064* -0.031 -0.055* -0.111* 0.027 0.104

Overtime0.01 -0.036* -0.091* -0.154* -0.300* 0.142*

Public-1.052* 1.021* -1.432* 0.825* -2.256 4.057

Private0.480* -0.353* 0.052 2.413* 0.887* -1.176

business -0.092* 0.111* 0.05 -0.221* -0.487* 0.209

farm -0.043* 0.039* 0.021 0.097* -0.071 0.222*

Bangkok 0.361* -0.294* -0.581* -0.643* -0.837* 0.625*

North0.04 0.008 -0.044 0.303* -0.075 -0.794*

Northeast-0.073 -0.111* 0.076 0.353* -0.327* -0.961*

South-0.161* -0.016 -0.031 0.088 -0.327* -0.161

Urban-0.548* -0.045 0.492* 1.609* 0.297 0.233