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Page 1: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Government Budget OverviewFederal Government Budget Overview

Some Things Are Just Too ImportantSome Things Are Just Too Important

Not to UnderstandNot to Understand

Page 2: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewSome Things Are Just Too Important “not” to UnderstandSome Things Are Just Too Important “not” to Understand

During earlier periods of our most recent financial crisis, Quanta Analytics spent most of its time tracking and During earlier periods of our most recent financial crisis, Quanta Analytics spent most of its time tracking and monitoring changes in the Banking Industry and setting up QA’s process for continually monitoring that monitoring changes in the Banking Industry and setting up QA’s process for continually monitoring that industry. With much of that work complete and in place, QA has turned its attention towards the Federal industry. With much of that work complete and in place, QA has turned its attention towards the Federal Budget and the Federal Deficit.Budget and the Federal Deficit.

There are some things that are just “too important not to understand” and our Federal Government Budget There are some things that are just “too important not to understand” and our Federal Government Budget process that has lead to our substantial National Debt is one of those things.process that has lead to our substantial National Debt is one of those things.

In this Overview presentation Quanta Analytics will show and explain, using fifty-years of Federal Government In this Overview presentation Quanta Analytics will show and explain, using fifty-years of Federal Government Budget history, what all the “hub-bub” regarding the Federal Budget and National Debt is all about.Budget history, what all the “hub-bub” regarding the Federal Budget and National Debt is all about.

Additional details regarding the Federal Budget are presented in follow-up presentations associated with this Additional details regarding the Federal Budget are presented in follow-up presentations associated with this one. one.

Page 3: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Introduction to Federal Budget OverviewIntroduction to Federal Budget Overview

The financial information appearing in this presentation is obtained from the historical tables regarding The financial information appearing in this presentation is obtained from the historical tables regarding the Budget of the U.S. Government as presented in the Financial Report of the United States the Budget of the U.S. Government as presented in the Financial Report of the United States

provided through the Financial Management Service. provided through the Financial Management Service.

The analysis herein is the work of a single individual, Jim Boswell.The analysis herein is the work of a single individual, Jim Boswell.

Jim is the Executive Director of Quanta Analytics.Jim is the Executive Director of Quanta Analytics.He has an M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, He has an M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School,

An M.P.A. from Indiana University, School of Public and Environmental Affairs; and a An M.P.A. from Indiana University, School of Public and Environmental Affairs; and a B.A. in mathematics from Hanover CollegeB.A. in mathematics from Hanover College

Jim is a veteran, who served as a junior officer on a fleet ballistic missile submarineJim is a veteran, who served as a junior officer on a fleet ballistic missile submarineJim worked as a Budget Analyst for the Department of Energy during the “first energy crisis”Jim worked as a Budget Analyst for the Department of Energy during the “first energy crisis”

Later, he worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for 15 years prior to starting his own “think tank”.Later, he worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for 15 years prior to starting his own “think tank”.In 1995 Jim was awarded a Vice-Presidential “Hammer” Award for his work designing the primary In 1995 Jim was awarded a Vice-Presidential “Hammer” Award for his work designing the primary

systems used by Ginnie Mae to monitor the risk of their portfolio.systems used by Ginnie Mae to monitor the risk of their portfolio.Jim was integrally involved in analyzing data and developing solutions throughout the S&L crisis.Jim was integrally involved in analyzing data and developing solutions throughout the S&L crisis.

Jim is the author of Crush Depth Alert, subtitled Solutions for Supplying Power to America’s Jim is the author of Crush Depth Alert, subtitled Solutions for Supplying Power to America’s Distressed Financial SystemsDistressed Financial Systems

And he regularly writes opinion pieces for Business InsiderAnd he regularly writes opinion pieces for Business Insider  

Page 4: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewReceipts and Outlays—a 50-Year HistoryReceipts and Outlays—a 50-Year History

The following graph is just a “warmer-upper”. What it shows is the actual 50-year history (1962-2012) of The following graph is just a “warmer-upper”. What it shows is the actual 50-year history (1962-2012) of Government receipts (revenues, taxes, in-flows, etc.) plotted against the amount of Government outlays Government receipts (revenues, taxes, in-flows, etc.) plotted against the amount of Government outlays (expenditures, spending, out-flows) for every year during that period of time.(expenditures, spending, out-flows) for every year during that period of time.

There is little that Quanta Analytics expects the viewer to pull away from this particular graph; however, it does There is little that Quanta Analytics expects the viewer to pull away from this particular graph; however, it does begin to provide a sense of how the Federal Budget has grown over the years.begin to provide a sense of how the Federal Budget has grown over the years.

Later graphs will break this information down into more meaningful perspectives.Later graphs will break this information down into more meaningful perspectives.

Right up front Quanta Analytics wants to caution the viewer not to lose sight of the “Big Picture” by focusing Right up front Quanta Analytics wants to caution the viewer not to lose sight of the “Big Picture” by focusing solely on the last few years of budget history. The problems with the Federal Budget that Quanta solely on the last few years of budget history. The problems with the Federal Budget that Quanta

Analytics will describe cannot be laid at the feet of the current Administration nor can it be laid at the feet Analytics will describe cannot be laid at the feet of the current Administration nor can it be laid at the feet of one particular political party (Democrat or Republican) in general. of one particular political party (Democrat or Republican) in general.

The Federal Budget problem is an “American” problem and one that has been overlooked by Presidents (who The Federal Budget problem is an “American” problem and one that has been overlooked by Presidents (who submit budgets to Congress and manage the Executive agencies that do the spending) of both parties and submit budgets to Congress and manage the Executive agencies that do the spending) of both parties and

Congresses (who appropriate spending levels) of both parties for more than fifty years.Congresses (who appropriate spending levels) of both parties for more than fifty years.

Both parties must share responsibility. Both parties must share responsibility. Now with that being said, let us move on. Now with that being said, let us move on.

Page 5: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal GovernmentFifty Year History of Federal GovernmentReceipts and OutlaysReceipts and Outlays

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dol

lars

in T

rillio

ns

Total Receipts Total Outlays

Page 6: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewRevenues and Outlays Compared to U.S. GDPRevenues and Outlays Compared to U.S. GDP

Probably the best perspective one can gain relating to the Federal Budget history is to look at revenues and Probably the best perspective one can gain relating to the Federal Budget history is to look at revenues and outlays in relation to the U.S. GDP. The following three graphs will provide that perspective. And this outlays in relation to the U.S. GDP. The following three graphs will provide that perspective. And this perspective should be telling and “understood”.perspective should be telling and “understood”.

The first graph in this series shows that although Federal Revenues have varied in relation to the GDP at The first graph in this series shows that although Federal Revenues have varied in relation to the GDP at different times in our history, on average they have been at levels representing 18.1% of our GDP.different times in our history, on average they have been at levels representing 18.1% of our GDP.

The second graph in this series shows that although Federal Outlays have varied in relation to the GDP at The second graph in this series shows that although Federal Outlays have varied in relation to the GDP at different times in our history, on average they have been at levels representing 20.8% of our GDP.different times in our history, on average they have been at levels representing 20.8% of our GDP.

The third graph in this series shows that this variance between Federal Revenues and Federal Outlays is not The third graph in this series shows that this variance between Federal Revenues and Federal Outlays is not just a recent phenomena, but one that has been steady and in place for nearly fifty years.just a recent phenomena, but one that has been steady and in place for nearly fifty years.

Again, Quanta Analytics cautions the viewer not to focus on any particular period during the fifty-year period Again, Quanta Analytics cautions the viewer not to focus on any particular period during the fifty-year period time (including the most recent period). It serves no purpose at this time to “point fingers” or “place time (including the most recent period). It serves no purpose at this time to “point fingers” or “place blame”. This 2.7% gap between the Revenue/GDP ratio and the Outlay/GDP ratio is at the heart of our blame”. This 2.7% gap between the Revenue/GDP ratio and the Outlay/GDP ratio is at the heart of our National Debt problem—and this problem has been an ongoing one for the last fifty years.National Debt problem—and this problem has been an ongoing one for the last fifty years.

This 2.7% GDP gap actually represents a 15% difference (20.8/18.1) between actual revenues and actual This 2.7% GDP gap actually represents a 15% difference (20.8/18.1) between actual revenues and actual outlays. But we cannot stop here. Things are actually worse as we will come to see in later graphs.outlays. But we cannot stop here. Things are actually worse as we will come to see in later graphs.

Page 7: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal Government RevenuesFifty Year History of Federal Government Revenuesas a Percentage of GDP as a Percentage of GDP

(Plotted Against the 50-Year Average of 18.1%)(Plotted Against the 50-Year Average of 18.1%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Rece

ipts

as

a Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

Actual Revenues/GDP 18.1% 50-Year Average

Page 8: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal Government OutlaysFifty Year History of Federal Government Outlaysas a Percentage of GDPas a Percentage of GDP

(Plotted Against the 50-Year Average of 20.8%)(Plotted Against the 50-Year Average of 20.8%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Out

lays

as

a Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

Actual Outlays/GDP 20.8% 50-Year Average

Page 9: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal Government Receipts and OutlaysFifty Year History of Federal Government Receipts and Outlaysas a Percentage of GDPas a Percentage of GDP

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Rece

ipts

/Out

lays

as a

Per

cent

of G

DP

Receipts Outlays 18.1% Average 20.7% Average

Page 10: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewLooking at Accumulated Deficits Resulting from 2.7% GDP GapLooking at Accumulated Deficits Resulting from 2.7% GDP Gap

Between Federal Revenues and OutlaysBetween Federal Revenues and Outlays

When Outlays exceed Revenues, the result are “Deficits”. When Revenues exceed Outlays, the result are When Outlays exceed Revenues, the result are “Deficits”. When Revenues exceed Outlays, the result are “Surpluses”. The following two graphs show how the historical gap between Government Revenues and “Surpluses”. The following two graphs show how the historical gap between Government Revenues and Outlays has lead to an accumulated buildup in our Federal Deficit.Outlays has lead to an accumulated buildup in our Federal Deficit.

The first graph of this series simply shows how the “Budget Deficit” has grown over the past fifty years.The first graph of this series simply shows how the “Budget Deficit” has grown over the past fifty years.

The second graph of this series offers a comparison to that Budget Deficit accumulation, showing what the The second graph of this series offers a comparison to that Budget Deficit accumulation, showing what the “Budget Deficit” would have been: “Budget Deficit” would have been:

(1) If Federal “Outlays” had been steady at 18.1% of GDP over the last fifty-years keeping actual Revenues (1) If Federal “Outlays” had been steady at 18.1% of GDP over the last fifty-years keeping actual Revenues the same; or the same; or

(2) If Federal “Revenues” had been steady at 20.8% of GDP over the last fifty-years keeping actual Outlays (2) If Federal “Revenues” had been steady at 20.8% of GDP over the last fifty-years keeping actual Outlays the same. the same.

But stick around. This is just the starting point.But stick around. This is just the starting point.

Page 11: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal GovernmentFifty Year History of Federal GovernmentAccumulated Result of Total Deficit SpendingAccumulated Result of Total Deficit Spending

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dol

lars

in T

rillio

ns

Actual Accumulated Deficits

Page 12: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal GovernmentFifty Year History of Federal GovernmentDeficit Spending—Actual versus Hypothetical CasesDeficit Spending—Actual versus Hypothetical Cases

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

-$2.0

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dol

lars

in T

rillio

ns

Actual National Deficit Budget Deficit with 18.1% Outlay/GDP

Budget Deficit with 20.8% Revenue/GDP

Page 13: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewComparing the Budget Deficit to the National DebtComparing the Budget Deficit to the National Debt

However, Budget Deficit numbers, by themselves, do not tell the full story of our “American” problem. However, Budget Deficit numbers, by themselves, do not tell the full story of our “American” problem.

The next two graphs begin to explain why our Budget problem is actually worse than what we have explained The next two graphs begin to explain why our Budget problem is actually worse than what we have explained so far. Besides spending more “Outlays” than “Revenues”, our American parties have also been robbing so far. Besides spending more “Outlays” than “Revenues”, our American parties have also been robbing “Peter to pay Paul”. In other words, our National Debt is even greater than our Federal Deficit.“Peter to pay Paul”. In other words, our National Debt is even greater than our Federal Deficit.

The first graph in the next series shows the difference between the “National Debt” and our Federal Deficit.The first graph in the next series shows the difference between the “National Debt” and our Federal Deficit.

And the difference between our “National Debt” and our “Federal Deficit” is explained in the second graph of And the difference between our “National Debt” and our “Federal Deficit” is explained in the second graph of this series. For fifty years we have been taking Social Security Revenues designed for “future” Outlays and this series. For fifty years we have been taking Social Security Revenues designed for “future” Outlays and using them to cover “current” Outlays. In truth, if you only count Social Security revenues that are used to using them to cover “current” Outlays. In truth, if you only count Social Security revenues that are used to cover current Social Security outlays, the true amount of Federal Revenues has averaged only 16.4% of cover current Social Security outlays, the true amount of Federal Revenues has averaged only 16.4% of GDP, compared to the earlier figure expressed as 18.1%. GDP, compared to the earlier figure expressed as 18.1%.

Thus, in truth, the real gap between current Outlays and Revenues meant for current expenditures is a gap, not Thus, in truth, the real gap between current Outlays and Revenues meant for current expenditures is a gap, not of 2.7% of our GDP like we showed before, but instead a gap of nearly 4.4% of GDP. In other words, the of 2.7% of our GDP like we showed before, but instead a gap of nearly 4.4% of GDP. In other words, the history of our spending gap essentially represents nearly a 27% difference (20.8/16.4) between current history of our spending gap essentially represents nearly a 27% difference (20.8/16.4) between current Revenues and current Outlays, rather than the 15% gap (20.8/18.1) explained before. Revenues and current Outlays, rather than the 15% gap (20.8/18.1) explained before.

Don’t leave yet. We are not done. The story gets even worse yet.Don’t leave yet. We are not done. The story gets even worse yet.

Page 14: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal GovernmentFifty Year History of Federal GovernmentActual Deficit Spending versus Actual National DebtActual Deficit Spending versus Actual National Debt

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dol

lars

in T

rillio

ns

Actual Accumulated Deficit Actual National Debt

Page 15: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal GovernmentFifty Year History of Federal GovernmentAmount of National Debt We Owe Social SecurityAmount of National Debt We Owe Social Security

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dol

lars

in T

rillio

ns

Difference

Page 16: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewComparing the National Debt Against GDPComparing the National Debt Against GDP

Now no one should expect the Federal Government to always run a balanced budget. In fact, most economists Now no one should expect the Federal Government to always run a balanced budget. In fact, most economists and realists would expect the Government to show deficit spending during periods of “war” and “national and realists would expect the Government to show deficit spending during periods of “war” and “national recessions/depressions”.recessions/depressions”.

Regardless, probably the best way to gain a sense of our National Debt in economic terms is to compare it to Regardless, probably the best way to gain a sense of our National Debt in economic terms is to compare it to our GDP. our GDP.

The first graph in the next series, shows how the relationship between our National Debt and our GDP has The first graph in the next series, shows how the relationship between our National Debt and our GDP has changed over the last fifty years.changed over the last fifty years.

The second graph in this next series, goes back even further, and shows how that relationship changed over The second graph in this next series, goes back even further, and shows how that relationship changed over the last eighty-years.the last eighty-years.

Hopefully, by looking at the two graphs separately we can begin to gain a better scope on our current American Hopefully, by looking at the two graphs separately we can begin to gain a better scope on our current American problem.problem.

Page 17: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of National DebtFifty Year History of National Debtas a Percentage of GDPas a Percentage of GDP

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Nati

onal

Deb

t as

a Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

National Debt / GDP

Page 18: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Eighty Year History of National DebtEighty Year History of National Debtas a Percentage of GDPas a Percentage of GDP

(1930-2010)(1930-2010)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Nati

onal

Deb

t as

a Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

National Debt to GDP

Page 19: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewComparing the National Debt Against GDPComparing the National Debt Against GDP

From the previous graph it is clear that our National Debt when compared to our GDP has in fact been worse From the previous graph it is clear that our National Debt when compared to our GDP has in fact been worse than it is today. than it is today.

However, there are some things that we cannot ignore about today’s figures and these include the following:However, there are some things that we cannot ignore about today’s figures and these include the following: (1) World War II was an extraordinary time period and after the war, America began paying off for the cost (1) World War II was an extraordinary time period and after the war, America began paying off for the cost

of that war by growing its GDP.of that war by growing its GDP. (2) No war anything like World War II can explain the growing trend of our National Debt to GDP ratio over (2) No war anything like World War II can explain the growing trend of our National Debt to GDP ratio over

the past 30-years. There are other causes (to be explained shortly).the past 30-years. There are other causes (to be explained shortly). (3) Our current GDP is approximately $14.5 Trillion and if future Government Deficit spending exceeds the (3) Our current GDP is approximately $14.5 Trillion and if future Government Deficit spending exceeds the

expected growth in that GDP ($14.5 Trillion x 3.5% = $507 ) then our Debt to GDP ratio will also continue expected growth in that GDP ($14.5 Trillion x 3.5% = $507 ) then our Debt to GDP ratio will also continue to grow. If we grow our GDP less than 3.5% the problem even becomes more difficult to solve.to grow. If we grow our GDP less than 3.5% the problem even becomes more difficult to solve.

(4) “Ten percent unemployment” works against the Federal Budget by reducing Federal Revenues and (4) “Ten percent unemployment” works against the Federal Budget by reducing Federal Revenues and increasing Government outlays—and thus “increasing” Federal Deficits; and finallyincreasing Government outlays—and thus “increasing” Federal Deficits; and finally

(5) To begin reducing the size of our National Debt or even keeping it relatively level we will need to “raise (5) To begin reducing the size of our National Debt or even keeping it relatively level we will need to “raise revenues”, “decrease spending” or “raise our GDP” and probably some combination of the three.revenues”, “decrease spending” or “raise our GDP” and probably some combination of the three.

Now here is the rub. Let’s look at the source of the Federal Revenues that we have been talking about first by Now here is the rub. Let’s look at the source of the Federal Revenues that we have been talking about first by looking at the relative contribution of that revenue by source.looking at the relative contribution of that revenue by source.

Page 20: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal Government ReceiptsFifty Year History of Federal Government ReceiptsShowing Percentage by TypeShowing Percentage by Type

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Rela

tive

Rece

ipt P

erce

nt b

y Ty

pe

Income Taxes Corporate Taxes Social Security Excise Taxes Other

Page 21: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewFederal Revenues or TaxesFederal Revenues or Taxes

Of the three options available (raising taxes, reducing spending, or growing our GDP) to manage our debt in Of the three options available (raising taxes, reducing spending, or growing our GDP) to manage our debt in relation to our GDP, raising taxes always seems to be the option of last choice. It’s better to increase taxes relation to our GDP, raising taxes always seems to be the option of last choice. It’s better to increase taxes by growing our economy (GDP) than it is to raise tax rates themselves. Even so, QA feels that it is by growing our economy (GDP) than it is to raise tax rates themselves. Even so, QA feels that it is important to understand the history and relative source of the revenues used to cover Govt expenditures.important to understand the history and relative source of the revenues used to cover Govt expenditures.

The previous graph showed this and indicates the following:The previous graph showed this and indicates the following: -- Individual income taxes represent the source for approximately 45% of all federal revenues;-- Individual income taxes represent the source for approximately 45% of all federal revenues; -- Social security payments represent the source for approximately 35% of all federal revenues;-- Social security payments represent the source for approximately 35% of all federal revenues; -- Corporate taxes represent the source for approximately 10% of all federal revenues; and together-- Corporate taxes represent the source for approximately 10% of all federal revenues; and together -- Excise (e.g. alcohol, tobacco, highway trust funds, etc.) and Other (e.g., estate, customs) taxes represent -- Excise (e.g. alcohol, tobacco, highway trust funds, etc.) and Other (e.g., estate, customs) taxes represent

the source for the remaining 10% of all federal revenues.the source for the remaining 10% of all federal revenues.

The previous graph also shows that between 1962-1982 as the relative amount of Federal Revenues associated The previous graph also shows that between 1962-1982 as the relative amount of Federal Revenues associated with Social Security grew to become somewhat of a steady level of 35% all revenues, they did so while the with Social Security grew to become somewhat of a steady level of 35% all revenues, they did so while the relative proportion of Corporate and Excise taxes fell during that same period.relative proportion of Corporate and Excise taxes fell during that same period.

Now assuming we cannot raise taxes to help tackle the growing Budget Deficit problem in America, then we Now assuming we cannot raise taxes to help tackle the growing Budget Deficit problem in America, then we have to look toward expenditures. The next graph shows expenditures by Government function.have to look toward expenditures. The next graph shows expenditures by Government function.

Page 22: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Fifty Year History of Federal Government OutlaysFifty Year History of Federal Government OutlaysShowing Percentage by Outlays by TypeShowing Percentage by Outlays by Type

(1962-2012)(1962-2012)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Rela

tive

Out

lay

Perc

ent b

y Ty

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Human Resources National Defense Net InterestOther Functions Physical Resources Undistrib Offset Receipts

Page 23: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewFederal Expenditures or OutlaysFederal Expenditures or Outlays

It is very clear by looking at the relative change in expenditures by government function as the American It is very clear by looking at the relative change in expenditures by government function as the American Government grew it shifted its focus more towards “butter” than “guns”.Government grew it shifted its focus more towards “butter” than “guns”.

Over the past fifty years the Human Resource category grew from representing 30% of all Government Over the past fifty years the Human Resource category grew from representing 30% of all Government expenditures to now representing approximately two-thirds of all government expenditures.expenditures to now representing approximately two-thirds of all government expenditures.

Over that same period, spending on Defense decreased in relative terms from representing 50% of all Over that same period, spending on Defense decreased in relative terms from representing 50% of all Government expenditures in 1962 to its present level of approximately 20% today.Government expenditures in 1962 to its present level of approximately 20% today.

Despite an increasing Budget Debt, net interest expenditures have benefited from lower “interest rates” and Despite an increasing Budget Debt, net interest expenditures have benefited from lower “interest rates” and has remained at approximately the same of 10% of expenditures.has remained at approximately the same of 10% of expenditures.

So all in all, when you add everything up (knowing that it is hard to reduce interest payments without reducing So all in all, when you add everything up (knowing that it is hard to reduce interest payments without reducing debt) you find outside of Human Resources and Defense there is little left to look at when looking for debt) you find outside of Human Resources and Defense there is little left to look at when looking for “significant” places to cut.“significant” places to cut.

Page 24: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

Quanta AnalyticsQuanta Analytics

Federal Budget OverviewFederal Budget OverviewSummarySummary

Federal Budget Deficits increase our National Debt.Federal Budget Deficits increase our National Debt.

Over the past 50-years Federal Outlays have consistently outstripped Federal Revenues by more than 25%.Over the past 50-years Federal Outlays have consistently outstripped Federal Revenues by more than 25%.

Our National Debt is growing faster than Budget Deficits because we owe ourselves money for using “future” Our National Debt is growing faster than Budget Deficits because we owe ourselves money for using “future” Social Security funds to pay for “current” Federal Government outlays.Social Security funds to pay for “current” Federal Government outlays.

Outside of the period during World War II our National Debt to our National GDP is the highest in history.Outside of the period during World War II our National Debt to our National GDP is the highest in history.And the current trend for this ratio is and has been rising.And the current trend for this ratio is and has been rising.

Human Resources account for approximately 67% of all Federal OutlaysHuman Resources account for approximately 67% of all Federal OutlaysDefense Spending accounts for approximately 20% of all Federal OutlaysDefense Spending accounts for approximately 20% of all Federal Outlays

Based on the most current numbers from the Financial Report of the United States shows or projects:Based on the most current numbers from the Financial Report of the United States shows or projects:2012 Federal Government Outlays = $3.632 Trillion2012 Federal Government Outlays = $3.632 Trillion2012 Federal Government Revenues = $3.075 Trillion2012 Federal Government Revenues = $3.075 Trillion

(and this does not take into account $294 billion of future Social Security funds used to cover current Outlays)(and this does not take into account $294 billion of future Social Security funds used to cover current Outlays)

Page 25: Quanta Analytics Federal Government Budget Overview Some Things Are Just Too Important Not to Understand

This EndsThis EndsQuanta Analytics’ Federal Budget OverviewQuanta Analytics’ Federal Budget Overview

More DetailsMore DetailsAre Provided in Subsequent PresentationsAre Provided in Subsequent Presentations