Quantifying the Ecological FootprintOf Suburban/Exurban Land Use Change

Richard G. Lathrop and John A. BognarGrant F. Walton Center for Remote Sensingand Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers UniversityNew Brunswick, new Jersey

John E. HasseRowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey

Percent of Developed Land in Top Developed States

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DE

FL

MD

MA

NJ

RI

CT 24.47 25.95 27.21 28.50

DE 13.41 14.86 16.26 18.12

FL 9.48 10.56 12.65 15.04

MD 14.68 15.97 17.03 19.89

MA 20.80 22.92 25.51 29.76

NJ 26.92 31.69 33.32 37.90

RI 25.30 26.76 29.31 30.30

1982 1987 1992 1997

NRCS NRI (2000)

New Jersey – the most densely developed state in the nation

Human land use is the major force driving landscape change, affecting our natural resources and environment.

Landscape Level Indicators of Environmental Change

An active area of research is the development of quantitative measures to evaluate the success or failure of land management and environmental protection policies at the scale of watersheds or landscape regions.

Natural resources of critical priority:• all vs. interior forest loss • all vs. prime farmland loss • natural wetland loss

Ecological Footprint of a Housing Unit:

What is the overall as well as the per capita impact of existing patterns of development on some of New Jersey’s most highly valued land

resources?Big Foot Sprawl or Little Foot Smart Growth?For more info on 1986-1995 change analysis see –

Hasse & Lathrop. 2003. Applied Geography 23:159-175

1986 1995

NJ Landscape Change Analysis Program1986-1995 Land Use Change

Data source: NJ DEP land use/land cover data based on visual interpretation of 1m scale CIR digital orthophotography

Land Use Change 1995-2000 Update

Image Source: 10m SPOT Pan USA Select 2000

Mapping technique:- Overlay 1995 NJDEP LU/LC data- On-screen digitize urban and transitional land use change polygons. MMU = 1 acre.

Land Use Change 1995-2000 Update

Comparison of 1m DOQ vs. 10 m SPOT PAN

1m B&W DVRPC DOQ

10m Pan

SPOT

Key:

Yellow 1995

Blue 2000

Stratified random selection of 62 photo plots

Comparison of Land Use between Reference Imagery & SPOT: Urban & Transitional

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400SPOT (acres)

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Tile1 to 1 line

Total change: SPOT = 1983ac DOQ = 1895ac Within 5%

Land Use Change Rate 1986-1995 1995-2000To Urban ha/yr(ac/yr) 6,750 (16,650) 5,900 (14,650)

To Barren ha/yr(ac/yr) 1,275 (3,150 ) 1,700 (4,150)

1986-1995 Change

43%

38%

11%

0%

8%

forest

agwet

waterbarren

1995-2000 Change

51%

28%

5%

0%

16%

forest

agwet

waterbarren

NJ Population Change

1986-1995 1995-2000

1986-1995 Urban Land Use Change

Urban Growth vs. population change

High per capita land consumption in exurban areas

From Hasse & Lathrop, 2003

1995-2000 Urban Land Use ChangeUrban Growth vs. population change

New Jersey: The Forest State?

Over 45% of New Jersey is in forest

Forest Loss to Development1986-1995 3,490 ha/yr1995-2000 3,880 ha/yr

1986-1995 Interior Forest Change% change vs. per capita change

Approximately 24% of the forest loss was classed as interior forest (>100m from edge)

1995-2000 Interior Forest Change% change vs. per capita change

Approximately 21% of the forest loss was classed as interior forest (>100m from edge)

New Jersey: The Garden State

Agriculture is still a major industry and preservation of remaining farmlands is a major state initiative

Farmland Loss to Development 1986-1995 3,020 ha/yr 1995-2000 2,100 ha/yr

1986-1995 Prime Farmland Loss % loss vs. per capita loss

60% of the farmland lost to urban development between 1986 and 1995 was considered prime farmland soils

1995-2000 Prime Farmland Loss % loss vs. per capita loss

58% of the farmland lost to urban development between 1995 and 2000 was considered prime farmland soils

Farmland Preservation:

Will it succeed in preserving large

contiguous areas of farmland to

maintain a viable agricultural landscape?

40,000 acres (16,200 ha) preserved during 1995-2000

New Jersey: The Wetland State?

Nearly 20% of New Jersey is wetlands

Wetlands Loss to Development1986-1995 860 ha/yr1995-2000 410 ha/yr

1986-1995 Natural Wetlands change% loss vs. per capita loss

1995-2000 Natural Wetlands change% loss vs. per capita loss

Conclusions• Rapid landscape change in NJ due to urban growth• SPOT Pan provided a cost and time effective means

of updating land use• Landscape indicators provide a useful measure to

assess and communicate ecological costs of change• Rate of forest loss increased, farmland & wetlands

loss decrease. % loss of interior forest and prime farm soils steady

• Existing land use planning techniques (i.e., large lot zoning) leading to higher rates of per capita land consumption in exurban municipalities.

• Big Foot is alive & well and living in New Jersey