Quantitative risk evaluation and mappingTask F

Ragnar Sigbjörnsson

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

Contents

Description of Task F

Deliverables

The working group

Definition of risk measures

The Pilot Study Areas

The Icelandic Study Case

The Disruption Index

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

DESCRIPTION OF TASK F

Tast F consists of five Actions: F1 – Creation of a Working Group dedicated to the evaluation of the

seismic risk (EERC) F2 – Evaluation of significance of risk for the pilot region (LNEC) F3 – Damage ranking seismic risk inside regions (buildings – Census

2011 – and schools - Portugal) (LNEC) F4 – Comparison of risk measures among different study areas

(EERC) F5 – Definition of more comprehensive measures of impact

(physical, economic and social) and definition of risk criteria (IST)

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

DESCRIPTION OF TASK F

The main outcome of Task F are the following three deliverables: F1.1 – Definition of general guidelines for evaluation of the seismic

risk (EERC); F2.1 – Report on Damage assessment in each of the test areas 1, 2,

3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC); F5.1 – Report on more comprehensive measures of impact (physical,

economic and social) and definition of risk criteria in each of the test areas 1, 2, 3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC).

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

WORKING GROUP: WG 12

Ragnar Sigbjörnsson, Maria Luisa Sousa, Alexandra Carvalho, Francisco Mota de Sa, Monica Amaral Ferreira, Carlos Sousa Oliveira, Sonia Raposo, Fabrizio Meroni, Gaetano Zonno, Salvatore D’Amico, Rajesh Rupakhety, Solveig Thorvaldsdottir, Francesca Bianco

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

WORKING GROUP: WG 12

EERC (Iceland) Ragnar Sigbjörnsson Rajesh Rupakhety Sólveig Thorvaldsdottir

IST (Portugal) Carlos Sousa Oliveira Monica Amaral Ferreira Francisco Mota de Sá

INGV (Italy) Gaetano Zonno Fabrizio Meroni Salvatore D’Amico Francesca Bianco

NLEC (Portugal) Alexandra Carvalho Maria Luisa Sousa Sonia Raposo

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

Definition of different measures of risk

Basic formulationThe expected loss, E(L), in a given time interval can be expressed as follows within the framework of continuous stochastic variables:

Here, L is the loss, H represents the probabilistic hazard described by the probability density function, fH(h), h being the state variable.

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

The lumping procedure If the expected losses are analyzed in terms of equivalent lost building area, then the expected loss value conditioned by a seismic hazard level, E(L|h) is obtained by the following expression:

where, is the number of buildings in the study region; is the average floor area of the buildings belonging to a typological class with vulnerability v, in the study region; is the damage factor and is the damage probability matrix considered as the percentages of buildings, belonging to the typological class with vulnerability v, which are in a damage state d, after being subject to a seismic action with severity h; is the probability of the buildings belonging to a typological class with vulnerability V = v, and it is assumed

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

The Pilot Study Areas

Italy (Mt. Etna Case) Portugal (Lisbon and Algarve) Spain Iceland (The Town of Hveragerdi)

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

The Icelandic Pilot Study - The Disruption Index

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

HVERAGERÐI The Icelandic

Pilot StudyArea

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

PUBLICATIONS1. Ferreira, M.A. (2012). Risco sísmico em sistemas urbanos. Ph.D Thesis. Instituto

Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. 295 pp (in portuguese). 2. Ferreira, M.A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S. (2013). Disruption Index, DI: an approach

for assessing seismic risk in urban systems. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (submitted for publication)

3. Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. (2013). QuakeIST: Instructions for running the software, IST, Lisboa. 73 pp

4. Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. and Mota de Sá, F. (2012). The concept of a disruption index: application to the overall impact of the July 9, 1998 Faial earth-quake (Azores islands). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 10(1): 7-25.

5. Sousa, M. L.; Ferreira, M. A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C. S.; Raposo, S.; Sigbjörnsson, R.; Rupakhety, R.; Zonno, G.; Meroni, F.; Bianco, F.; D’Amico, S. (2012). Quantitative seismic risk evaluation and mapping: cases of schools and residential facilities in Lisbon and Algarve. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Lisbon

UPStrat-MAFA 3rd General Meeting 23-26 July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland

Thank You