quarterly market trends: fourth quarter 2013
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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 2®
Foreword
January 2014
Dear CCIM Institute members,
Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2013 edition of CCIM Institute’s Quarterly Market Trends. The report provides timely insight into major commercial real estate indicators for core income-producing properties. It is produced by the National Association of Realtors® in conjunction with and for members of the CCIM Institute, the commercial real estate industry’s global standard for professional achievement.
The fourth-quarter 2013 report features commentary from Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR chief economist, and George Ratiu, director of NAR’s quantitative and commercial research. It also includes market data collected from CCIM members that illustrate regional economic and transactional trends across the U.S. I’d like to thank the CCIM members who participated in the survey and shared insights on their local markets.
I hope that the information provided in CCIM’s Quarterly Market Trends report provides both economic and commercial real estate market information that will assist you in your business strategies in 2014 and beyond.
Sincerely,
Karl Landreneau, CCIM2014 CCIM Institute [email protected]
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 3®
Table of Contents
U.S. Economic Overview p. 4Commercial Real Estate Forecast p. 8CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights p. 16Commercial Property Sector Analysis p. 17CCIM Survey Results p. 20U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook p. 24Sponsors p. 29Contributors p. 30
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 4®
U.S. Economic Overview
The U.S. economy is expected to continue its slow
upward trajectory through 2015. A wide variety of
economic variables can impact commercial real
estate sales, but trends in three key variables — gross
domestic product, employment, and interest rates—
generally summarize the outlook for commercial real
estate in the near term. GDP and employment are in
a slow growth mode, and interest rates are projected
to continue to be favorable to sales. Accordingly, the
commercial real estate sales outlook is positive, but
at the same time mediocre.
The slower than expected economic expansion and
lingering uncertainties from the Great Recession
are slowing job creation. The real level of economic
expansion continues to be forecasted at less than 3
percent, a rate that would signify a normal expansion
economy.
GDP Growth
The Great Recession appears to have been caused
by the confluence of excessive financial speculation
coupled with a normal economic slowdown,
resulting in a sharp recession, significantly lower
levels of consumer confidence, and high levels
of unemployment. Annual real GDP growth has
averaged 2.3 percent since the end of the Great
Recession in second-quarter 2009, and historically
growth above 3 percent has followed recessions
in the 1970s-2000s. Lower than normal levels of
household formation, decreased state and local
government expenditures, a mediocre level of
consumer confidence, and significant losses in
household wealth have contributed to the relatively
low level of economic growth.
Wealth effects initially held back the economic
expansion: Approximately $6.5 trillion of housing
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 5®
U.S. Economic Overview
wealth was eliminated from fourth-quarter 2006
to fourth-quarter 2011 as home prices declined,
according to Federal Reserve Bank data. Coupled
with major declines in the stock markets, this
deleveraging negatively impacted consumer
confidence and spending decisions by corporations,
consumers, and governments.
Uncertainties about the economy were also illustrated
by unusually low levels of consumer confidence. The
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures
the level of economic uncertainty, reached historical
highs in August 2011.
Finally, weak consumer demand, increasing economic
inequality, and the growth of low-pay part-time jobs
continue to be causative factors in the economy’s
slowness. Income flows are circular in the economy.
As such, the significant growth of the number of
consumers with lower incomes has been cited as a
major negative impact on consumer expenditures.
Job Growth
The economy needs to create an average of 125,000
additional jobs per month just to stay even with
population growth. Since the end of the Great
Recession job growth has averaged 124,000 new
jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. As of October 2013, approximately 20
million people were unemployed or employed part
time for economic reasons, according to a BLS
Household Survey, and the monthly job creation rate
reported through October 2013 was 186,000 per
month.
At current job creation rates, it will take 58 months
to get unemployment down to 5 percent with no
improvement in part-time workers who would
like full-time jobs. In addition, the labor force has
dropped from 65.7 percent in January 2009 to 62.8
percent in 2013, which accounts for the elimination
of approximately 7 million jobs. Some of the labor
force dropouts probably represent discouraged
workers leaving the labor force.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 6®
Job creation is a major driver of the demand for
commercial real estate, and currently this driver is
weaker than it should be under normal conditions.
As such, slow job creation appears to be the result of
a weak recovery from the Great Recession coupled
with ongoing economic uncertainty.
Interest Rates
Most economists expect the Federal Reserve
System to end quantitative easing at some point
in 2014. Interest rates are expected to rise, but
are projected to continue to be relatively low by
historic standards. In addition, the Fed is expected
to continue to support an expanding economy
through relatively easy monetary policy. This
is good news for commercial sales prospects.
Subpar Expansion— Is It the New Normal?
All forecasts are based on a myriad of economic
assumptions, i.e., that there will be no unforeseen
changes in Federal budgets, that a monetary crisis
will not freeze financial markets, that taxation and
debt solvency issues can be resolved at the national
level, that major European economies will continue
to improve, and that major political risks do not
generate economic disasters. The current forecast is
based on a continuation of current economic trends
absent exceptional economic drama.
Assuming that there are no surprises or shocks
to the economy, no major tax increases, and that
government spending continues at current levels,
the economy is projected to grow moderately for the
next three years. Both monetary and fiscal policy have
been relatively expansionary, although tempered
by sequestration and modestly rising interest
rates. Despite sequestration and government belt
tightening, the federal government continues to run
at a substantial deficit. State and local governments
as a whole do not appear to be in a mode for
additional cutbacks.
The economic forecast is based largely on the
assumption of repeated historical relationships in
U.S. Economic Overview
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 7®
terms of consumer behavior, asset prices, and domestic
and international transactions. Trends in asset prices (e.g.,
stocks, housing prices, oil prices, international exchange
rates) are essentially unpredictable, but are assumed to
be favorable. The assumption of the absence of surprises
or shocks to the economy means that the economy will
continue to grow.
Both economic and non-economic factors coupled with
the lingering wealth effects from the Great Recession
appear to be holding the economy back. The National
Federation of Independent Businesses has reported both
demand/poor sales (the economic factor) and government
regulatory requirements (the non-economic factor) as
problems holding back the economy.
Uncertainties about quantitative easing, fundamental
budgetary and sequestration disagreements in Congress,
hiring concerns reported to be a result of changes in medical
insurance programs, and general business concerns appear
to be keeping business optimism at lower than normal
levels and negatively impacting hiring decisions. In addition,
U.S. Economic Overview
consumer confidence is well below the 100 level that
one would expect during an expanding economy
and the monthly economic policy uncertainty index,
which is based on newspaper coverage, federal tax
code provisions, and disagreements among economic
forecasters, continues to be relatively unfavorable.
The bottom line is: There continues to be substantial
economic uncertainty.
In short, the combination of uncertainties and the
lingering effects of the Great Recession appear to
continue to hold back GDP and job growth potential.
Consequently, both a recession and robust growth
appear to be unlikely in the next few years. While the
outlook is positive, it remains mediocre as it is strongly
influenced by uncertainties and perceptions about
current government policies. If these exogenous
factors were to change unexpectedly (and this is a
distinct upside possibility given that we are dealing to
a significant degree with political and psychological
issues), the forecast could become significantly more
positive in 2014.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 8®
Fundamentals
Third-quarter 2013 economic activity—as measured by GDP—witnessed a solid 3.6 percent growth. Some of
that positive growth spilled over into commercial real estate markets. Net absorption figures were positive,
and modest new construction led to steady vacancy declines.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 9®
Commercial Property Sector Overview
Office
The office sector remained bound to modest
employment gains in office-using industries. After
staying flat for the previous two quarters, office
vacancies declined 10 basis points in the third quarter.
Compared with a year ago, availability rates were
30 basis points lower. Demand for office properties
remained moderate, with net absorption totaling
5.4 million square feet, according to Reis. For the
fourth quarter, net absorption is projected to reach
13.4 million sf. The best performing markets during
the quarter were those clustered in technology and
energy industries, including Houston, Austin, Texas,
Dallas, Boston, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle.
Office vacancy rates are estimated to close the year
at an average 15.7 percent. Regionally, the markets
with the lowest projected vacancy rates in the fourth
quarter are New York (9.8 percent), Washington, D.C.
(9.9 percent), Little Rock, Ark., (12.0 percent), and
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Nashville, Tenn. (12.7 percent). Asking rents advanced
0.3 percent in the third quarter based on data from
Reis. Rents are projected to rise 2.4 percent by the
end of the year.
Industrial
International trade increased in the third quarter,
leading to a positive trade balance. Port and
intermodal markets reaped most of the benefits
from the activity, posting stronger occupancy and
rent rates. However, on a national level, demand
for industrial space was moderate. Third-quarter
absorption totaled 14.5 million square feet, according
to Reis. On the other hand, the supply of new
industrial buildings reached its post-2009 peak,
totaling 7.4 million sf. Due to the supply increase,
vacancy rates declined 10 basis points from second
quarter, and 70 basis points on a yearly basis.
Availability rates are projected to decline to an
average 9.3 percent for the year. Markets with the
lowest fourth quarter estimated vacancy rates include
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 10®
Orange County, Calif. (3.9 percent), Los Angeles
(4.0 percent), Miami (6.0 percent), and Seattle (6.3
percent). Asking rents for industrial space rose 0.4
percent in the third quarter and are projected to
gain 2.3 percent for the year.
Retail
Political uncertainty in Washington, D.C., and the
threat of government shutdown loomed large in
the third quarter. Though GDP during the quarter
was solid, it is expected to have slowed drastically
to about 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Consumer
confidence remained muted, leading to soft spending
at the retail level. As a result, demand for retail space
was weak, with absorption totaling 2.3 million square
feet according to Reis. Meanwhile, the volume of
new construction hit a yearly peak, with 1.5 million
square feet coming online. The combination kept
vacancy rates flat in the third quarter compared with
the second. On a yearly basis, availability was down
30 basis points.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Retail vacancy is expected to drop to 10.5 percent
by the end of the fourth quarter. Coastal markets
retain their supremacy in terms of vacancies and rent
growth, with California, New York City suburbs, and
Washington, D.C., and its suburbs at the top. Two
markets offer projected vacancy rates below 5.0
percent, including Fairfield County, Conn., and San
Francisco. Asking rents rose 0.3 percent in the third
quarter, and are estimated to increase 1.4 percent by
the end of 2013.
Multifamily
Despite investor concerns about the apartment
market’s performance, demand for multifamily
properties remained strong in the third quarter.
According to Reis, net absorption totaled 41,283
units during the quarter. The supply of apartments
also grew, adding 36,269 new units on the market.
In turn, the vacancy rate slid 10 basis points during
the third quarter. Availability rates are expected to
close the year at 4.1 percent. Metro markets with
the lowest projected vacancies are topped by New
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 11®
Haven, Conn., with a rate of 1.9 percent, followed by
Syracuse, N.Y., Minneapolis, and San Diego. Asking
apartment rents increased 1.0 percent in the third
quarter and are expected to rise at a 4.0 percent
yearly rate during 2013.
Investment Conditions
Commercial real estate investments posted an
upbeat third quarter. Sales of major properties
(greater than $2.5 million) advanced 26 percent on a
yearly basis during the quarter, totaling $89.7 billion,
according to Real Capital Analytics. Investors were
drawn to a few specific property types, leading to
double- or triple-digit growth rates: Sales of retail
properties rose 104 percent on a yearly basis, while
industrial sales volume jumped 70 percent. Sales of
properties at the lower end of the price range (less
than $2.5 million) increased 11 percent on a yearly
basis. Based on three quarters of data and fourth
quarter projections, total sales volume is expected
to surpass 2012’s $300 billion.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
A major portion of total sales volume during the third
quarter was made up of portfolio sales, which totaled
$30.2 billion. Blackstone was involved in two major
portfolio sales transactions – an apartment portfolio
Source: Real Capital Analytics
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 12®
and an industrial portfolio -- totaling more than $3.1
billion. Sprint Realty Capital spent $7.7 billion on a
portfolio of mixed properties. On the individual
property side, office transactions dominated the
market for top properties. The building at 650
Madison Ave. in New York sold for $1.3 billion in the
third quarter, taking the top spot. It was followed
by several office properties including City National
Plaza and One Wilshire in Los Angeles, which traded
for $858 million and $439 million, respectively.
With sales volume on the rise, 23 metropolitan
markets surpassed the $1 billion sales volume in the
third quarter alone. Manhattan retained the top
spot, followed closely by Los Angeles and Houston.
Investor interest in secondary and tertiary markets
also remained a strong trend in the third quarter.
Markets such as Nashville, Tenn., Phoenix, Seattle,
and Denver closed sales in excess of $1.0 billion.
With rising demand, prices advanced 9.3 percent in
the third quarter according to RCA’s Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Property Price Index. Apartments continued to
outperform the other sectors, with prices gaining 14
percent. The average apartment unit price reached
$107,240. Retail properties witnessed a 12 percent
price appreciation, trading for an average $170 psf.
Prices for office buildings rose 9 percent, changing
hands for an average of $233 psf. Finally, industrial
properties posted average prices of $65 psf, a 1
percent decline from one year ago.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 13®
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Commercial property capitalization rates increased
7 basis points to an average 6.8 percent nationally
across all property types, based on RCA data. For
properties under $2.5 million, prices increased 4
percent year over year, based on survey data from the
National Association of REALTORS®, while cap rates
increased 50 basis points to an average 9.2 percent.
As asset values rose, new commercial distress
continued on a downward trend. New distress in the
third quarter accounted for $2.5 billion, a 30 percent
decline from the same period in 2012. Workouts
stayed constant during the quarter, averaging $9 to
$10 billion, according to RCA.
Capital Markets
Diversification in lending sources continued,
and capital availability increased as values of
underlying assets rose. Even in the face of rising
mortgage rates, spreads for commercial properties
stayed even, due to increased lender competition.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 14®
Commercial Real Estate ForecastCommercial mortgage-backed securities were a strong
contender in the market, accounting for 24 percent of
funding during the first half of the year. National banks
and government agencies accounted for 16 percent
and 18 percent, respectively.
However, the financing picture was not evenly focused
across property types or markets. Based on RCA
data, CMBS issuance made up the bulk of retail and
hotel deals, representing 45 percent and 42 percent
respectively of total volume. In the apartment sector,
government agencies provided 54 percent of funding,
dwarfing the next closest source, regional/local banks
(11 percent). For office and industrial deals, the capital
sources proved to be more evenly represented by
the major lending groups. Meanwhile, while major
markets had a bevy of financing choices, secondary
markets found CMBS, government agencies, and
national banks to play the lead role in transaction
financing. In tertiary markets, CMBS covered over
one-third of all financing, followed by government
agencies. Capital availability for transactions under
$2.5 million remained constrained, with cash as
the main source of financing for 33 percent of all
transactions, according to data from the National
Association of REALTORS®.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 15®
Commercial Real Estate Outlook
In general, commercial sales and employment vary together. Given that the economy is currently expanding
and producing additional jobs, the outlook for the commercial sector is positive, although possibly modest.
The outlook for 2014 calls for continuing growth in commercial investments as commercial fundamentals
ride an upward trajectory. With economic growth projected at 2.5 percent annual rate (swings in quarterly
data notwithstanding), commercial markets will find absorption rising and lifting rents along with it. Although
uncertainties remain about the federal budget and how businesses will absorb the Affordable Care Act, other
segments of the economy are rising and as such it will likely mean stronger spending on the business and
consumer sides.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 16®
CCIM members provided insights into their markets in a November 2013 survey.
• 57% of CCIM members indicated more deals in 4Q13 compared to same period the year before.
• Deals were a function of buyer demand: 61% of respondents indicated more inquiries related to buying,
while 8% had more inquiries about wanting to sell.
• Property prices continued to firm in 4Q13—32% of respondents reported prices similar to last year, while
46% reported higher prices.
• Rents increased, with 48% of CCIMs indicating higher rents versus the prior year; 35% of respondents
indicated similar rents year over year.
• Cap rates were reported to be stable, with 56% of practitioners indicating rates in line with last year; 34% dealt
with lower rates.
• 45% of respondents expect rents and prices to move together in the next one to three years. 23% said
rent growth will outpace price growth, while 32% indicated the opposite, with prices expected to outperform
rents.
• Interest rate increases tempered in 4Q13—47% of members think that Treasury yields will remain about the
same; 23% of respondents indicated that Treasury yields will rise, but will only minimally impact cap rates due to
the current spreads; and 11% of CCIMs said that Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward.
• 27% of respondents indicated meaningful improvement in credit availability in the third quarter compared
to last year, while 59% reported marginal improvement.
• Current credit conditions are expected to improve, according to 51% of CCIM respondents, while 41%
consider the current tightness to be the new normal.
CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 17®
The following highlights reflect CCIM members’ local and regional economic, transaction, and property market
activity as measured in a November 2013 intelligence survey.
National Office Markets
• Deal flow was higher in the third quarter for 64 percent of CCIM members.
• Property prices were higher for 46 percent of CCIM, while 33 percent found them to be flat.
• Cap rates were even for 64 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 28 percent of respondents.
• Rental income was at similar levels for 41 percent of respondents; higher for 44 percent of CCIMs.
• 62 percent of respondents had more serious inquiries related to buying.
Commercial Property Sector Analysis
National Industrial Markets
• Industrial deal flow was higher on a yearly basis for 56 percent of respondents.
• Prices were even for 34 percent of CCIMs, and higher for 51 percent.
• Cap rates were even for 62 percent, while 28 percent reported lower cap rates.
• 53 percent of CCIM members reported higher rents.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 18®
Commercial Property Sector Analysis
Source: Real Capital Analytics
National Retail Markets
• Retail deals moved upwards for 51 percent of CCIMs.
• Prices were unchanged for 36 percent of respondents, and higher for 42 percent.
• Cap rates were the same for 51 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 37 percent.
• Rental income increased for 46 percent of CCIM members.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 19®
Commercial Property Sector Analysis
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Source: Real Capital Analytics
• 56 percent of CCIM members reported more deals in the second quarter than last year.
• Prices were higher for 55 percent of respondents.
• Cap rates stayed the same for 46 percent of members and lower for 42 percent.
• Rental income rose for 53 percent of CCIMs.
National Apartment Markets
National Hotel Markets
• Sales of hotels were higher for 75 percent of CCIMs.
• Prices increased for 75 percent of respondents.
• Cap rates were the same for 50 percent of CCIMs and lower for 38 percent of members.
• 88 percent reported more serious inquiries related to buying hotel properties.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 20®
%
1. Compared to this time last year, how is your deal flow?
> More deals than this time last year
> About the same as this time last year
> Fewer deals than this time last year
56.9%
32.9%
10.2%
2. Property price compared with prices one year ago.
> The property price is higher now than if sold last year
> About the same as last year
> The property price is lower now than if sold last year
> Cannot say because it is difficult to compare, or had no transaction this year
46.2%
31.7%
7.4%
14.7%
3. Level of rental income (net rent after all concessions) compared with one year ago.
> Rents are higher by more than 5%
> Rents are higher by 1% to 5%
> About the same as last year
> Rents are lower by 1% to 5%
> Rents are lower by more than 5%
> Don’t know
11.9%
36.2%
34.6%
5.8%
2.7%
8.8%
4. Cap rates compared with one year ago.
> Higher cap rates
> About the same
> Lower cap rates
10.8%
55.7%
33.5%
CCIM Survey Results
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 21®
%
5. Cap rates in your current market.
> Apartment/Multifamily
> Office CBD
> Office Suburban
> Industrial Warehouse
> Industrial Flex
> Retail
> Hotel/Lodging
> Development
> Land
6.6%
7.7%
8.0%
7.8%
7.9%
7.5%
7.7%
9.1%
8.8%
6. Compared to this time last year, how would you qualify buyer interest?
> More serious inquiries related to buying
> Fewer serious inquiries related to buying
> More serious inquiries related to selling
> Fewer serious inquiries related to selling
> About the same number of serious inquiries
61.3%
9.6%
8.3%
2.9%
17.9%
7. Current difference in perception (that is, the gap in cap rates) compared to one year ago.
> The gap is narrowing with a better chance of completing a deal
> The gap is about the same
> The gap is widening with less chance of completing a deal
45.6%
43.1%
11.3%
CCIM Survey Results
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 22®
%
8. Current financing conditions compared to conditions one year ago.
> Credit availability has meaningfully improved from last year
> Credit availability has only marginally improved
> Credit availability is just as tight as last year with no improvement
> Credit availability has turned for the worse and is even tighter than last year
27.1%
58.6%
11.4%
2.9%
9. Expectation regarding financing over next 2 to 3 years.
> The current tight conditions are the new normal because of new financial market regulations
> Credit will be more readily accessible over time
> Credit will become even more difficult to access over time
40.8%
50.9%
8.3%
10. Clients’ expectation related to future spread outlook over next 2 to 3 years.
> Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward by roughly the same magnitude
> Treasury yields will rise, but it will only minimally impact cap rates because of the current
wide buffer zone (the gap between cap rate and Treasury yield)
> Treasury yields will remain about the same for an extended period and cap rates will also
remain about the same as now
> Treasury yields will remain low for an extended period and cap rates will fall closer to
historical spreads (from the current wide gap)
> Cap rates will fall, independent of how Treasury yields move
> Both Treasury yields and cap rates will fall
10.8%
22.7%
47.1%
12.2%
5.3%
2.0%
CCIM Survey Results
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 23®
%
11. Expectation regarding rent growth and property prices over the next 2 to 3 years.
> Rent growth will outpace price growth
> Rent growth will lag behind price growth
> Both rent growth and price growth will move roughly the same amount
23.2%
31.8%
45.0%
CCIM Survey Results
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 24®
City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013
vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.
2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Phoenix AZ B 75.00 -20% -7% 2% 23%
Tucson AZ B 84.38 -20% -7% 1% 26%
Los Angeles CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 2% 31%
San Bernardino/Riverside
CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 57%
Sacramento CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 49%
San Diego CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 9%
San Francisco CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 1% 23%
San Jose CA B 75.00 -25% -8% 2% 13%
Colorado Springs CO A 90.63 -13% -5% 1% 19%
Denver CO C 71.88 -13% -5% 3% 45%
Hartford CT A 93.75 -14% -4% 1% 12%
Washington DC C 68.75 -6% 17% 1% 20%
Jacksonville FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 6%
Miami FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 65%
Orlando FL C 65.63 -7% -10% 3% 42%
Tampa-St.
Petersburg
FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 30%
Atlanta GA C 65.63 -10% -14% 3% 68%
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 25®
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook
City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013
vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.
2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Chicago IL B 75.00 -3% -1% 1% 34%
Indianapolis IN B 84.38 -5% -13% 1% 38%
Lexington KY C 68.75 -9% -9% 2% 56%
Louisville KY B 75.00 -9% -9% 2% 1%
New Orleans LA B 81.25 -2% -20% 1% 16%
Boston MA A 87.50 -26% -5% 2% 32%
Baltimore MD C 68.75 -4% -6% 1% 25%
Detroit MI A 87.50 -14% -9% 1% 39%
Minneapolis MN B 75.00 -15% -7% 2% 29%
St. Louis MO B 81.25 -5% -9% 0% 4%
Kansas City MO C 68.75 -5% -9% 1% 55%
Greensboro/Winston-Salem
NC A 87.50 -12% -18% 2% -7%
Raleigh-Durham NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7%
Charlotte NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 3% 23%
Omaha NE A 87.50 -9% -11% 1% 27%
Albuquerque NM A 87.50 -9% -25% 1% 19%
Las Vegas NV B 78.13 -25% -7% 2% 23%
Buffalo NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% 91%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 26®
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook
City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013
vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.
2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
New York NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35%
Cleveland OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 42%
Columbus OH B 78.13 -7% -11% 1% 40%
Cincinnati OH B 84.38 -7% -11% 1% 36%
Oklahoma City OK B 75.00 -11% -20% 2% 41%
Tulsa OK A 90.63 -11% -20% 2% 0%
Portland OR B 81.25 -15% -13% 2% 40%
Pittsburgh PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 2% 29%
Philadelphia PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 1% 18%
Providence RI A 96.88 -16% -7% 1% 21%
Charleston SC C 71.88 -6% -11% 1% -2%
Columbia SC A 87.50 -6% -11% 1% 8%
Greenville SC B 81.25 -6% -11% 1% 38%
Knoxville TN B 75.00 -4% -8% 1% 55%
Nashville TN D 62.50 -4% -8% 3% 40%
Chattanooga TN B 81.25 -4% -8% 0% 16%
Memphis TN C 71.88 -4% -8% 0% 6%
Austin TX C 68.75 -13% 0% 3% 19%
Dallas TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 18%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 27®
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook
City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013
vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.
2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Houston TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 26%
San Antonio TX B 81.25 -13% 0% 1% 5%
Salt Lake City UT B 78.13 -10% -8% 2% 33%
Richmond VA B 81.25 -13% -8% 1% 32%
Seattle WA B 78.13 -10% -10% 2% 5%
Milwaukee WI B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 8%
Birmingham AL D 62.50 -3% -10% -1% -6%
Little Rock AR B 75.00 -4% -10% 1% -35%
New Haven CT B 84.38 -14% -4% 0% 13%
Wichita KS B 84.38 -8% -2% 0% 24%
Rochester NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% -4%
Syracuse NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 1% -11%
Dayton OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 28%
Ventura County CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 8%
Westchester NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 0% -5%
Norfolk/Hampton Roads
VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 2% 26%
Tacoma WA B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 5%
Orange County CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 0% 73%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 28®
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook
City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013
vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.
2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Palm Beach FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 17%
Fairfield County CT A 87.50 -14% -4% -1% 10%
Fort Lauderdale FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 65%
Fort Worth TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 4% 18%
Long Island NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35%
Northern New Jersey
NJ C 68.75 -14% 20% 2% 33%
Oakland-East Bay CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 23%
Suburban Mary-land
MD C 71.88 -4% -6% 2% 20%
Suburban Virginia VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 0% 20%
Durham NC C 71.88 -12% -18% 3% 0%
Raleigh-Cary NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7%
Central New Jersey
NJ C 65.63 -14% 20% -1% 54%
* October 2012 through September 2013 vs. October 2011 through September 2012
**November 2012 through October 2013 vs. November 2011 through October 2012
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 29®
Sponsors
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media in a professional and accessible manner.
The Research Division monitors and analyzes economic indicators, including gross domestic product, retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, and employment data that impact commercial markets over time. Additionally, NAR Research examines how changes in the economy affect the commercial real estate business, and evaluates regulatory and legislative policy proposals for their impact on REALTORS®, their clients and America’s property owners.
The Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate including:• Commercial Real Estate Outlook • Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey• Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey • Commercial Member Profile
To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics.
Lawrence Yun, PhDSr. Vice President, Chief [email protected]
George RatiuDirector, Quantitative & Commercial [email protected]
Ken FearsDirector, Regional Economics & Housing Finance [email protected]
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH DIVISION
CCIM INSTITUTE
Since 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 200 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 countries worldwide. Another 3,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the Institute one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of REALTORS®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and the powerful technology tool, Site To Do Business (site analysis and demographics resource), positively impact and influence the commercial real estate industry. Visit www.ccim.com for more information.
Karl Landreneau, CCIMPresident
Mark Macek, CCIMPresident-Elect
Steven W. Moreira, CCIMFirst Vice President
CCIM INSTITUTE 2014 EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP
National Association of REALTORS®500 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 800-874-6500 www.realtors.org
Craig Blorstad, CCIMTreasurer
B.K. Allen, CCIMInterim Executive Vice President/[email protected]
CCIM Institute430 North Michigan Ave., Suite 800Chicago, IL 60611 312-321-4460 www.ccim.com
©2014 The CCIM Institute and National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 30®
ContributorsLisa Sands VIP Realty-Commercial Fort Myers FL
Mike Foster Coldwell Banker Commercial Grand Junction CO
Robert W. Drayton City of Charlotte Charlotte NC
Vladimir Golik Keller Williams Realty Miami FL
Aaron Banard Cushman & Wakefield Northmarq Mendota Heights MN
Brad Cooper Nai Brannen Goddard Atlanta GA
Kenneth Kujawa CENTURY 21 Signature Realty Saginaw MI
Maria Palmar Jolie Powell Realty Port Jefferson NY
Andie Edmonds ARIS Group Bend OR
Heidi Ho Century 21 All Islands Honolulu HI
Mark Rykovich Clarity Strategic Opportunities, LLC Naperville IL
Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercial Salem OR
Sharon Carz REO Property Specialists Los Angeles CA
Larry Goldman Remax Commercial Overland Park KS
Dale Dockins North Bay Commercial Real Estate Santa Rosa CA
Robert Phillips Nevada Real Estate LLC Las Vegas NV
Lydia Bennett CRE West Coast, LLC Bellingham WA
Scott Perkins NAI James E.Hanson Hackensack NJ
Michael Connors CORT Business Services Corporation Chantilly VA
Jim Otis The Otis Company Omaha NE
Paul Lepine James P McCrory Co., Inc. Fort Lauderdale FL
Alberto Jauregui Nevada Land Las Vegas NV
Jan A. Sell Sell & Associates, Inc. Tempe AZ
Mel Bernstein RE/MAX Optima Oviedo FL
Ryan Marn Colliers International Honolulu HI
Rene' Nelson Pacwest Commercial Real Estate Eugene OR
Petra Della Valle Loewe-Adler International, Inc. Addison TX
Hassan Jadali Cassidy Turley St. Louis MO
Aziz Khatri KW Commercial CA
Patrick Wilcox Colliers International Parsippany NJ
Steve Eisenshtadt Friedman Integrated Real Estate Solutions Farmington Hills MI
John P. Garruto Capital Realty Consultants Marlton NJ
Shannon Mar Guarantee Real Estate Fresno CA
Gary Cornelssen Marcor Investment Properties, Inc. San Diego CA
Paul Bell Prudential Americana Group Las Vegas NV
Nick Nicketakis CBSRE Waukegan IL
Greg Ogin Clark Commercial Group Kailua Kona HI
Claude Boiron Coldwell Banker Terrequity Realty Toronto OH
Sica Nacu Southern Realty Enterprises Longwood FL
Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC
Anne Sieg KW Commercial Indep., MO
Mat Kolding Kolding Commercial Brokerage & Invest-
ments, Inc.
Parker CO
David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX
Brian Rosteck Skogman Commercial Group Cedar Rapids IA
James Barse NAI Latter & Blum New Orleans LA
Aida Yeghiazarian RE/MAX Optima Glendale CA
Nick Probst+ Corporate Realty Advisers, LLC Tulsa OK
Roger A. Delisle Jr. Island Associates Real Estate Inc. Smithtown NY
Richard Miranda KW Commercial Houston TX
Howard Wolf Wolf Group Properties, LLC Tulsa OK
George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL
Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO
Perry Horton REOC Austin Austin TX
Randy Summers Davis Equity Realty Weslaco TX
Ralph Duarte Sperry Van Ness Bethesda MD
Christopher M. Gibbons Venture Commercial Dallas TX
Charles A Larkin Diversified Real Estate, LLC Watertown SD
Gary Tang Hannah Investment, Inc. Albany CA
Michael Wax Industrial Park Associates Oxnard CA
John Quinn McEnearney Commercial Alexandria VA
James Conklin 7D Commercial Real Estate Floyds Knobs IN
Angie Sumner Fowler Commercial, LLC Prescott Valley AZ
Craig Evans Cassidy Turley New York NY
Dan Stauffer McCoy Corporation San Marcos TX
Kenneth Krawczyk K.S.K. Services, Inc. Pewaukee WI
Ann Samuelson Suntree Inc., Realtors Seaside OR
Paul Mader Michael Tanzillo & Company Castro Valley CA
Bogumila Kowalec All Connect Realty Port Saint Lucie FL
David Brooks Lawler-Wood, LLC Knoxville TN
Janet Robinson Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Sarasota FL
Eugene Heathman Garland Realty and Investment Ruidoso NM
David Boyd Boyd Commercial/CORFAC International Houston TX
Donald A Ruizzo Assist 2 Sell Ace Full Service Realty St. Cloud FL
George S. Tate Jr. NAI Knoxville Knoxville TN
Herb Tousley Shenehon Company Minneapolis MN
Brandon Brown T.L. Brown Properties Jackson MS
Elgin Weaver First community credit union Houston TX
Dave Winder Cushman & Wakefield | Commerce Boise ID
Chris Schreiber Kiemle & Hagood Spokane WA
Lloyd "Skip" Miller Morris Realty Group Memphis TN
Jeff Hays RB Murray Company Springfield MO
Buddy Rancese Mutual Trust Corporate Real Estate Austin TX
Linda Cinelli LC Realty North Branch NJ
D'Arcy Browning RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) Calgary AK
Wes Hallmark Sperry Van Ness / Hallmark & Assoc. Lubbock TX
Noel Andress Sunmsrk Realty Inc. Fort Mers FL
Brian Resendez Sperry Van Ness Portland OR
Melanie Wollenberg Equity Columbus OH
Jeff Fritz Ellis-Gibson Development Group Virginia Beach VA
Steve Jacquemin S.J. Financial Group St. Louis MO
Joe Milkes Milkes Realty Valuation Dallas TX
Michael Shaffer Skogman commercial Cedar Rapids IA
Junko Masubayashi Newmark Grubb Knight Frank El Segundo CA
Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN
Bob Swain NAI Seattle WA
Amanda Reeves Lee & Asspciates Charleston SC
John McLaughlin McLaughlin Investments, Inc. Boston MA
Darolyn Wall KW Commercial Phoenix AZ
Tony Baldwin Baldwin Realty Group Carver MA
Philip Corriher Chambers Group Charlotte NC
Anthony Alan Tapie Grandbridge Atlanta GA
Kathie Bahman Gorman & Company, Inc. Oregon WI
Daniel Zelonker Real Miami Commercial RE LLC Miami/Coral Gables FL
Barry Bounds KW Commercial Real Estate, LLC Denver CO
Dan Stiebel Coldwell Banker Schmidt Traverse City MI
John Levinsohn Levi Investment Realty, Inc. Indianapolis IN
Ara Karapetian Dilbeck Commercial La Canada CA
Greg Herbert Sperry Van Ness Eugene OR
Jen Hudson WRE/M2 Everett WA
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 31®
ContributorsMax Finkle ReMax Renaissance Realtors Chattanooga TN
Adam Von Romer Fitzgerald Group Fort Lauderdale FL
Bill Early Copaken Brooks Kansas City MO
Steven Cohen Nautilus Capital Greenville,SC SC
Lester Liao Kennedy Heights Shopping Centre Delta WA
Gerilyn Gleason NAI Daus Cleveland OH
Mark Phillips Newmark Grubb Levy Strange Beffort Fountain Hills AZ
Tony Puente Fairchild Partners, Inc Miami FL
Colleen Berthelot Corporate Realty New Orleans LA
Don Wallace Callander Commercial Portage MI
Anthony Strauss Colliers Minneapolis MN
Gary Brown Gary Brown & Associates, Inc. Houston TX
Steve Tyrrell NAI Aguer Havelock Sacramento CA
George Tanghongs Lee & Associates Dallas TX
John Gilbert Gilbert & Ezelle Real Estate Services Savannah GA
Jason Richards Novi Real Estate Carlsbad CA
Martin Blum CBRE Richmond VA
Neil Warshafsky Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.,
Brokerage
Toronto ON
Stephen M. Soble Ernest Soble Commercial Properties, Inc. San Antonio TX
David Victorio Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Mansfield TX
Bob Strzalka Coldwell Banker Commercial Haddonfield NJ
Skip Rosenstock USFP Kansas City MO
Kasey Rohde JR Fulton & Associates, Inc. Norman OK
Jennifer Long Re/Max Bastrop Area Bastrop TX
Monica Rafferty Coldwell Banker Commercial Salt lake City UT
Andy Levy The Meg Companies Londonderry NH
Julian Rotnofsky United Commercial Realty San Antonio TX
Nancy Reimann Realty USA Buffalo NY
Jorge L. Pagan Bismarck ND
Cheryl Dixon Dixon Commercial Properties Southfield MI
Gerald LaHay Levin Commercial Real Estate, LLC Atlantic CIty NJ
Andrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA
Hal Alpert Alpert Commercial Real Estate Vacaville CA
Thomas Mertens Omni Development Albany NY
Louise Frazier Blue Ridge Realty, Inc. Knoxville TN
Chris Grear Colliers Nashville TN
Gregg Waller Long & Foster Commercial Vienna VA
Sam Perlman Adams & Company Sandy Springs GA
Samuel Zonfrillo KW Commercial Plainville MA
Phil Rose Twin Rivers Capital Charleston SC
Stephen Luta Stephen Luta, CCIM Cape Coral FL
Jon Matta MGM Realty Group Bedford NH
Beverly Keith Trinity Partners Raleigh NC
Michael Hui HMA Global Brea CA
John Floyd Crye-Leike Commercial Property
Management
Brentwood TN
Chris Wallace RC Commercial Realty Plymouth Meeting PA
Bradford Madrona Real Estate Srvs, LLC Seattle WA
CJ Snyder Ozarks Realty Flippin AR
Maire Herron AIC Jackson WY
Leon Titus CBRE Tacoma WA
Jeff Foster Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Newport Beach CA
Le Anne Thomas Paradigm Tax Group Woodland Hills CA
Aaron McDermott Latitude Commercial Schererville IN
Howard Meier High Peak Toronto UT
William Ellis Camden Commercial Real Estate Services San Antonio TX
James Weld Value Property LLC Las Vegas NV
Edison Vasquez ComReal Miami Miami FL
Patrick Bell Dunes Properties of Charleston, Inc. Charleston SC
Kelly Keesee KW Commercial Lubbock TX
Bob Rourke Premises Group Chicago IL
Peter Cotsirilos National Realty Network Arlington Heights IL
Scott McClave The Bascom Group Irvine CA
Jordan Wang Asia Pacific Capital CA
Brian Phillips Randall Commercial Group, LLC Oxford MS
John McClure McClure Partners Dallas TX
Mike Oliver Prudential Commercial Properties Billings MT
Russ Wehner Russ Wehner Realty Co. Denver CO
Richard Stern Midwest Commercial Real Estate, LLC Madison WI
Laura Hagan H4 Fort Worth TX
Dewey Struble Dewey Struble CCIM Reno NV
Walt Clements Clements Realty Advisors Glenview IL
Greg Clauson Coldwell Banker Commercial Destin FL
Peter Rasmusson Lee & Associates Elmwood Park NJ
David Dunn Sperry Van Ness / Dunn Commercial Arlington TX
John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI
Nick Eyhorn Coldwell Banker Commmercial Rick
Canup Realtors
Lubbock TX
Michael Armanious Keller Williams University Place WA
Justin Clark Caldwell Companies Houston TX
Randy Atkin Cushman Wakefield Commerce Salt Lake City UT
Andy Bell Anderson Bell, Inc. Atlanta GA
Hector Martinez River Oaks Properties El Paso TX
Alan Stamm Century 21 Consolidated Las Vegas NV
Brian Wolford Paradigm Tax Group Houston TX
Shawn Massey The Shopping Center Group Memphis TN
Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI
Jeffrey Bentz Cassidy Turley Kansas City MO
Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC
W. J. Cotter Absolute Investment & Realty Services Tampa FL
Paul Fetscher Great American Brokerage Long Beach NY
Rick Gonzalez Crosby & Associates Tavares FL
Anthony Marshall VIP Properties Rapid City SD
Soozi Jones Walker Commercial Executives Real Estate
Services
Las Vegas NV
Michael R. Bradley Bradley Commercial Real Estate Kirkland WA
Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO
Jay Steinberg Block Hawley Commercial Real Estate
Services
Chesterfield MO
Brian D Harris REOC San Antonio San Antonio TX
George Polydoros George Polydoros Co., Inc Houston TX
Ashley Elkin Studley Washington DC
Thomas Miller Miller Industrial properties Reno NV
Bob Hasan GE Capital Real Estate Philadelphia PA
Chris Spear ComReal Miami, Inc Doral FL
Marc Barlow Philip M. Barlow & Assoc. LLC Gilbert AZ
Lorin Schultz NAI Cummins Akron OH
Josh Randolph Colliers International Birmingham AL
Brian T. Barson Cornerstone Company Las Vegas NV
Ross Hedlund Frauenshuh Minneapolis MN
Alan Darner Kellogg Company Battle Creek MI
Bob Kane Bull Realty Atlanta GA
Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Scottsdale AZ
David Ashford Southpace Properties Inc. Bimringham AL
Dana Coronado KW Commercial Studio City CA
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 32®
ContributorsTim Churchwell Exit Realty Central Commercial and
Special Markets
Norfolk VA
Lee Greer, Jr Sperry Van Ness Lexington Lexington KY
Karen Higgins WestMark Commercial Lubbock TX
Rob Borny HFF Florham Park NJ
Mike Carroll Sealy Realty Co., Inc. Tuscaloosa AL
David P. Ellermann Ellermann Commercial Brokerage Chicago IL
John Leonard Marcus & Millichap Atlanta GA
Patrick Doherty Carolina Commercial Investment
Properties
Wilmington NC
Anthony Rosetta Fenway Properties San Diego CA
Alex Rodriguez Commercial Realty Solutions Miami FL
Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO
Tony Carlson Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN
Mike Milovick Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty Kitchener
Bill Kutsogiannis Janus Realty Regina SD
Lily Seymour Gershman Commercial Real Estate st Louis MO
Charles Wiercinski McLennan Commercial Properties Park Ridge IL
James Schutter Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Chicago IL
Chandra Wright KW Commercial Vienna MD
Michael Martz Hayes Commercial Group Santa Barbara CA
Beth Chappel CBRE Stamford CT
Mike King Kidder Mathews Seattle WA
Gary Catterton Catterton General, LLC Charleston SC
Robert Riddle Riddle Associates, Inc. Chesapeake VA
Mary Martin Miller Miller Consulting Group, LLC Portland;Salem OR
Rosalie Keszler The Stone Group Austin TX
Robin Civish Voit Las Vegas NV
Simeon Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL
Bruce Kahn The Foundation Group Seattle WA
Dave Worden Windward Commercial Real Estate
Seervices
Half Moon Bay CA
Jennifer Pollock Synovus Bank Orlando FL
Margaret Larsen Larsen Baker LLC Tucson AZ
David Aikens KW Commercial Louisville KY
Dan Dowd Cole Taylor Bank Chicago IL
Gayle Berkbigler KW Commercial Austin TX
Jay Pittard Jordan REA Southern Pines NC
Joe Awad RE/MAX Leaders Denver CO
David Dunn Hike Real Estate PC Bellevue NE
Dan Messina KW Commercial Concord MA
Kent Taylor Taylor Commercial Real Estate Austin TX
Keith Thomas RE/MAX Parkside Olympia WA
Thomas Knaub Colliers International Phoenix AZ
Kim Reagan Priority One El Paso TX
Rob Millman Prudential Indiana Realty Seymour IN
Lee Wagner Site Selection Group, LLC Dallas TX
Jim Tucker NetWorks Commercial Real Estate Richmond VA
Jennifer Martin Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors Salem OR
D. Scott Smith Prudential Baltimore MD
Jose Maria Serrano New Miami Realty Corp. Miami FL
Shane Hoey Neil Walter Co Kent WA
Heidi Adams Sperry Van Ness | R M Moore Knoxville TN
Brian Erickson NAI Optimum West Des Moines IA
Susan Cerone Realtyusa Albany NY
Lang Motes ICO Commercial Houston TX
Allison Thompson Cedar Hill EDC Cedar Hill TX
Mike Stuhlmiller Stuhlmiller Realty Hayden ID
John Haney Trotter & Company Knoxville TN
Robert DiPietrae Hendricks-Berkadia Seattle WA
Ben Walin Commercial properties of maui Wailuku HI
Kevin McGowan Violet Tiger Corporate Real Estate
Services
Philadelphia PA
Jim Helsel Helsel, Inc., Realtors Harrisburg PA
Juan Teran Chapman Lindsey Commercial Real Estate
Services LLC
Tucson AZ
Paul Sipp Turkey Run, Inc. Columbus OH
Jeffrey W. Eales Birtcher Anderson Realty, LLC San Juan Capistrano CA
Eric Higgins Colliers International Birmingham AL
Lee Ehlers Investors Realty, Inc Omaha NE
Travis Newton Florida Blue (BCBS) Jacksonville FL
Melissa Molyneaux Colliers International Reno NV
Edward Herbert HCR Associates Realtors Nashville TN
Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI
Bradley Alton NAI Commercial Edmonton
Michael Schout Cushman & Wakefield Waterloo Region Ltd. Waterloo CA
Nick Miner Orion Investments Scottsdale AZ
Todd Clarke NM Apartment Advisors Inc. Albuquerque NM
Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO
Marc Veras RE Commercial LLC Green Bay/Appleton WI
Lisa Engel CBRE Camarillo CA
Nancy Fish Park Place Real Estate Kalamazoo MI
Tom Schmidt Colliers International Redwood City CA
PJ Behr CNL Commercial Real Estate Orlando FL
David Schnitzer Venture Dallas TX
Sherry Palermo Zann Commercial Brokerage Houston TX
Zachary Fleming Ryan, LLC San Antonio TX
Chase Collier Highwoods Properties Tampa FL
Gary Hunter Westlake Associates, Inc. Seattle WA
Kevin Bethea Realty House Commercial Properties, Inc. Fort Walton Beach FL
Bob Rosenberg Inve$tnet Inc. Sacramento CA
John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI
Christy DeVinaspre Western Idaho Realty Nampa ID
Edward Schmidt NAI MIAMI MIAMI FL
Holly Coats KW Commercial Amarillo TX
Brian Sorrentino ROI Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Las Vegas NV
David Gleason Van Eaton & Romero Lafayette LA
Brad Welborn Colonial Square Realty, Inc. Fort Myers FL
Matt MacCaughelty Cardinal Real Estate Partners Charlotte NC
Dalerie Wu STC Management Whittier CA
Kevin Lynch Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate
Advisors
Chicago IL
Matt Eaton RE/MAX Commercial Brokers Inc Metairie LA
David Ford CBRE Cleveland OH
Eric Rehn Kennedy Wilson Properties Group Vallejo CA
Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercail Mt West Salem OR
Topher Thompson CBC Thompson Realty Group Lincoln NE
James Roscoe High Southeast Venture, LLC Nashville TN
Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO
Edward Bowden Virginia Land Ventures, LLC Richmond VA
Robert Avary Alta Commercial Real Estate Houston TX
Trent Grothues Pollan Hausman Real Estate Services, LLC Houston TX
Beth DuPont Winkler & DuPont Portland OR
Rick Clark Integrity Bank Houston TX
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 33®
ContributorsAndrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA
Dietrich Brandt Dietrich Realty Santa Cruz CA
Kathleen Boswell Coldwell Banker Commercial Charleston SC
James Palmer Re/Max Metro-city Realty Ltd Ottawa
Daren Hebold Lux Realty Group Portland ME
Dan Robinson Lidstrom Commercial Realtors Mankato MN
Julie Teague Columbia SC
Charles Parmelli Cassidy Turley Chatham NJ
Alger LaHood LaHood Realty Grosse Pointe
Woods
MI
Justin Neal The Viking Team Realty Longood FL
Gregory C. Cassel High Real Estate Group LLC Lancaster PA
Steven Martens NAI Martens wichita KS
Jim Williams REMAX Capital Inc Windsor
Homer W Hines HWH Properties Chesnee SC
Frank Weiskopf Realty Executives Maryville/Knoxville TN
Bobbie Mastracci Phoenix West Commercial Litchfield Park
Robin Santiago Kidder Mathews San Jose CA
Alejandra Matthes Re/Max Masters Glendora CA
James Kirby Walmart Realty Bentonville AR
Darrell Robb Encon Commercial Santa Fe Springs CA
Wes Schollenberg Avison Young Winnipeg
Harvey Kolin Corporate Commercial Realty Melville NY
Cindy Feinberg Feinberg Real Estate Advisors, LLC Allentown PA
Amy Mills Steve Fineberg & Associates, Inc. Bentonville AR
Dale Donovan KW Commercial Orlando FL
Angela Harwell Lakeland Commercial Realty, LLC Lakeland FL
Joe P. Rickett Douglas Advisory Dallas TX
Eric Wang Yuanta Asset Management Co. Taipei
Michael Sorrentino Century 21 Franklin Street Lenox MA
S. Susan Self Ritter Management, Inc. Irving TX
Raisa Galper Gardner, Realtors New Orleans LA
Burt Polson ACRES Real Estate Services, Inc. Napa CA
Carrie Spradling Walker Alley and Associates Shreveport LA
Dave Denton DAR Development Grand Rapids MI
Thomas Miller Miller Industrial Properties Reno NV
Patty Burns Fickling & Company Macon GA
Bruce Pearson John Hancock Financial Boston MA
Mez Birdie NAI Global Orlando FL
Jason Wilcox Raven Commercial Real Estate Kent WA
Michael Armanious KW Commercial Tacoma WA
Laurens Nicholson Lee & Associates Greenville SC
Jeff Franklin J.W. Franklin Co. Warrensburg MO
Gary J. Drechsel Eagle Realty USA Ledgewood NJ
Ed Kiesa CBRE | Syracuse Syracuse NY
Frank Thomasson Cassidy Turley Nashville TN
Ashley Chertkof Sperry Van Ness/RealSite Commercial
Group
Baltimore MD
Tom Larson RE/MAX Commercial Property Solutions La Porte IN
Erik Schwetje EWS Advisors Winter Park FL
Mark Klein Klein & Heuchan clearwater FL
George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL
Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN
Dan Smith Millridge Real Estate LLC Wake Forest NC
Rick McGraw Coldwell Banker/Tomlinson Group Boise ID
Dale DeBoer DeBoer Commercial Real Estate Modesto CA
Macy Ritter NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO
Hema Virani DJK Commercial New York NY
Lawrence L. Davis Benson and Mangold Commercial Easton MD
Roger Gray Capital Asset Properties, LC San Antonio TX
Casey Keitchen Bull Realty Atlanta GA
Blair Gilbert KW Commercial Exton PA
Will Barden Colliers International | Memphis Memphis, TN TN
Tatum Moore iCORE Global - Austin Austin TX
William Robinette Select Properties Company Hayden Lake ID
Kevin Geraghty Windermere Whatcom Inc Bellingham WA
William Butler Engel Realty Company, LLC Birmingham AL
John Simpson Jr. Prudential Simpson & Assoc. Fredericksburg VA
Michael Houge Transwestern Minneapolis MN
David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX
Ralph Pace U.S. Bank Denver CO
AJ Dugal Century 21 Clemens & Sons Rocky Hill CT
Rich Rhatigan Atherton & Associates Shelton CT
Ryan Johnson Johnson Group Reno NV
Drew Basham RE/MAX Affiliates Realty Commercial Little Rock AR
James Marian Chapman Lindsey Tucson AZ
Hal Alpert Alpert Copmmercial Real Estate Vacaville CA
David Roth Remax Alliance Group Sarasota FL
Deb Stevens The Stevens Group Boston MA
Chad Heer RE/MAX Commercial St Paul MN
Michele Dugan Roundy's Supermarkets, Inc. Milwaukee WI
Steve Mitchell KW Commercial Jacksonville NC
Vicki Hodge Walgreens Wauwatosa WI
Lauren Rodes Colliers International Phoenix AZ
Paul Rosado Commercial Real Estate Broker Tucson AZ
Rob Lukemeyer III Baseline, Inc. Carmel IN
Matt Boehlke Regus Maple Grove MN
James Mangas Best Corporate Real Estate Upper Arlington OH
Robert Powell Powell Realty Advisors, LLC Dallas TX
Zach Schwarzmiller Coast Sperry Van Ness Everett WA
Jacob Grieser HC REIT TOLEDO OH
Rodney Gustafson Case Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Denver CO
Lauren Nasser Arthur Kowitz Realty Daytona Beach FL
Lois Williams The Rosemyr Corporation Henderson NC
Heather Trower RED Legacy, LLC Kansas City MO
George Polydoros Polydoros & Associates Houston TX
Clarissa V. Willis CBRE Miami FL
Aaron Goldmeier Hampton Roads Management Virginia Beach VA
M.E. (Mike) Eurchuk Realty Executives Meridian Edmonton
Bill Whitlatch The Whitlatch Company Visalia CA
Michael Roy Neil Walter Company Kent WA
Scott Pollom Cassidy Turley Indianapolis IN
Stephen Brown CBRE Limited Toronto
Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Phoenix AZ
Douglas K. Smith NAI Puget Sound Properties Tacoma WA
John M. Stone John M. Stone Company Dallas TX
Jerry Holdner Voit Real Estate Services Newport Beach CA
James T. Saint Halo Realty & Investments Corporation Las Vegas NV
Don Gabriel Ameribid Overland Park KS
Bobbi Miracle Commercial Executives Las Vegas NV
Doug McKinnon BankPlus Jackson MS
Patrick Gallagher Siegel-Gallagher Milwaukee WI
Arielle Dorman Kidder Mathews Bellevue WA
Tony Fluhr NTS Development Company Louisville KY
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 34®
ContributorsBrian Collins Post Office Realty New Braunfels TX
Bob Droubi Keller Williams Houston TX
Jim Tamblyn Colliers Internatinoal Southwest Florida Fort Myers FL
Derrick Stricker NAI Tri-Cities Kennewick WA
Jim Kirkpatrick CBRE Capital Markets of Texas Houston TX
David Johnson Mortgage Capital Investments, Inc. Nashville TN
Alon Hilton Price Price-CO Realty Partners Atlanta GA
Tom Norton FedEx Trade Networks Memphis TN
Jay Verro NAI Platform Albany NY
Geoffrey Faulkner NNNet Advisors San Francisco CA
Ben Fazendin Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN
William Lewis The Lewis Group/CORFAC International Raleigh NC
Tarit Chaudhuri KW Commercial Txas Gulf Houston TX
Randall B. Boughton NAI Latter & Blum Baton Rouge LA
Tom Shelly Sunshine Commercial Brokerage, LLC St. Peteersburg FL
Tony Witt Cassidy Turley Dayton OH
Jerry Hempenius Com-Spec Properties, Inc. San Luis Obispo CA
Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO
John Rees Rees Commercial Little Rock AR
Andy Manthei KW Commercial Midwest Eagan MN
Darby Craddock CFO Real Estate Services LLC Winter Haven FL
Stasiu Geleszinski Sperry Van Ness Cincinnati OH
Glen Rickett SBC Realty Partners Billings MT
Vince Elder Coldwell Banker Commercial United Houston TX
Bobby Pittenger Pittenger Land Charlotte NC
Andrew Scearce Chodrow Realty Advisors Houston TX
Zachary Harrell Scott F. Harrell & Associates, Inc. Springfield MO
Danny Morales, Hartman Income REIT Houston TX
Thomas Brian Properties, Inc. Arlington Heights IL
Jeff Wilke Graham & Company Huntsville AL
Darrell Okada NAI Puget Sound Properties Bellevue WA
Tim Mills CBRE San Diego CA
Anthony Clayton Century 21 King Rancho Cucamonga CA
Stephen Bean HBCRE Lexington KY
Thank you to the industry experts who contributed to CCIM Institute’s 4Q13 Quarterly Market Trends.