Quick Mutual Fund Analysis&

Market Alerts

An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments

DisclaimerThe Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service is purely for educational purposes. The Mutual Fund

Analysis Educational Service and all associated with it are not acting as licensed financial advisors,

registered broker dealers, investment advisors or tax advisors.

We strongly recommend that you consult with a licensed financial professional for all your financial

advice. The Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service and all associate with it adamantly state that

nothing in this communication constitutes a solicitation, promotion, endorsement, offer or

recommendation to buy or sell any investment, mutual fund, debt instrument, commodity, or security

as described herein.

The Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service and all associated with it are acting SOLELY in an

educational capacity; this is NOT personalized advice timed to any specific market event and the

educational trade alert may be delayed from the time it is sent to the time it is received by the

subscriber. These services are provided for informational and educational purposes only, and no

mention of a particular security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other

security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is

suitable for any specific person.

To the extent any of the information provided may be deemed to be investment advice, it is

impersonal and not tailored to the individual investment needs of any specific person.

• If you lost 50% in the Market in year 1, then grew 50% in year 2, your investments would be even because your average annual yield is 0%.

– Year 1• $10,000 + [(-50%) x ($10,000)] = $5,000

– Year 2• $5,000 + [(50%) x ($5,000)] = $7,500

Wall Street Math

The average annual yield means absolutely nothing.It’s simply a form of misdirection.

S&P 500 Performance

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S&P 500 Annual Yield

“Buy & Hold”Wall Street’s Big Lie

YearAnnual Yield *

Average Yield

Actual Yield

Account Value

Cumulative Contribution

1995 34.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13,411.00$ 10,000$ 1996 20.3% 27.2% 25.1% 28,154.07$ 20,000$ 1997 31.0% 28.5% 27.8% 49,985.65$ 30,000$ 1998 26.7% 28.0% 27.4% 75,995.81$ 40,000$ 1999 19.5% 26.3% 25.1% 102,773.60$ 50,000$ 2000 -10.1% 20.2% 15.2% 101,338.35$ 60,000$ 2001 -13.0% 15.5% 8.1% 96,819.83$ 70,000$ 2002 -23.4% 10.6% 0.5% 81,856.04$ 80,000$

* S&P 500

• The Goal– Maximize return on investment

• Introducing the “Market Signal”– Avoid downward market participation (to preserve capital)– Capture the majority of the upward trend (and lock in profits)

• Performance Record Since 2005*– Buy & Hold = -4%– Protect & Grow = +119%

No More “Buy and Hold”

* As of 12/31/2010

• The Approach– Monitor every mutual fund in the United States

• 23,000+ mutual funds– Analyze each fund’s performance versus the Market and

versus each other using seasonal, fundamental, technical and statistical information

• High Frequency Trading– Minimize and leverage the impact of High Frequency Traders– Anticipate market trends based on an understanding of how

traders are likely to respond to market conditions

• Not Day Trading– Only 1 to 4 entry/exit signals per year

Not Really “Timing the Market”

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Example – 401k Choices

Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date

Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $144,745.49 $260,484.92Gain/(Loss) ($45,254.51) $70,484.92Portfolio - IRR -4.49% 5.47%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -9.56% 0.84%Individual Fund - IRR - High 0.63% 8.99%

401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00

19$190,000.00

01/01/05

GuideStone

Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date

Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $148,485.02 $223,995.99Gain/(Loss) $8,485.02 $83,995.99Portfolio - IRR 0.97% 8.05%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -0.86% -0.07%Individual Fund - IRR - High 2.28% 12.41%

401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00

14$140,000.00

01/01/05

BNSF

Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date

Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $260,958.74 $463,592.03Gain/(Loss) $958.74 $203,592.03Portfolio - IRR 0.06% 9.99%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -6.93% -0.13%Individual Fund - IRR - High 8.59% 18.77%

401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00

26$260,000.00

01/01/05

American Airlines

401k Mutual Fund Growth

Hud

son

Fina

ncial

Amer

ican

Airlin

es

BNSF

Apollo

Guide

Ston

e

Hun

tingt

on N

atio

nal .

..

King

City

MRI T

ech

Chevr

on

Armstro

ng R

eloc

atio

n

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

January 1, 2005 - December 31, 2010

Inte

rnal

Rate

of

Retu

rn (

IRR

)

• Analyze every mutual fund choice within your 401k.– Produce detail report which compares and rates the

performance of each of your mutual fund choices.

• Analyze mutual funds outside your 401k that are of interest to you.

• Provide the Market Signal which alerts you to bull, bear and/or flat signals:– Email and text

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