quiz2
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Review ofAccounting
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Learning Objectives:
• Use of the balance sheet, the income statement, and the statement of cash flows by managers.
• Calculation of depreciation.• How depreciation affects cash flow.• How taxes affect a firm’s value.• Calculation of marginal and average
tax rates.
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
• Annual report includes:
Income Statement Balance Sheet Statement of Cash Flows Accompanying Notes
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Income StatementACME CORPORATION
Net Sales $15,000,000Cost of goods sold 5,000,000Gross profit 10,000,000Depreciation Expense 2,000,000S&A Expenses 800,000Operating Income (EBIT) 7,200,000Interest expense 1,710,000Income before taxes 5,490,000Income taxes (40%) 2,306,000
Net income $3,184,000
Earnings per Share (4,000,000 shares) $0.80
Common Dividends paid $400,000
Increase in Retained Earnings $2,784,000
For the Year Ended December 31, 2009
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
• Annual report includes:
Balance Sheet
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
Balance SheetAssets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity
Current Assets:• Cash• Inventory• A/R
Fixed Assets: Land Plant Equipment
Less: Ac. Dep.
Current Liabilities: A/P Accruals S-T Debt
Long Term Liabilities: Bonds L-T Bank Debt Mortgages Preferred Stock
Owners’ Equity: Common Stock Capital in Excess of Par Retained Earnings
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Balance Sheet
ACME CORPORATION
2009 2010 Change
Assets:
Cash $9,000,000 $10,000,000 1,000,000
Accounts receivable 700,000 1,000,000 300,000
Inventory 17,300,000 10,000,000 -7,300,000
Marketable Securities 9,000,000 8,000,000 -1,000,000
Prepaid Expenses 1,000,000 1,000,000 0
Total current assets 37,000,000 30,000,000 -7,000,000
Fixed Assets, Gross 14,000,000 28,000,000 14,000,000
less Accumulated Depr. (6,000,000) (8,000,000) -2,000,000
Fixed Assets, Net 8,000,000 20,000,000 12,000,000
Total assets $45,000,000 $50,000,000 5,000,000
December 31
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Balance SheetACME CORPORATION
December 31
2009 2010 ChangeAssets:
Cash $9,000,000 $10,000,000 1,000,000Accounts receivable 700,000 1,000,000 300,000Inventory 17,300,000 10,000,000 -7,300,000Marketable Securities 9,000,000 8,000,000 -1,000,000Prepaid Expenses 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 Total current assets 37,000,000 30,000,000 -7,000,000Fixed Assets, Gross 14,000,000 28,000,000 14,000,000 less Accumulated Depr. (6,000,000) (8,000,000) -2,000,000 Fixed Assets, Net 8,000,000 20,000,000 12,000,000
Total assets $45,000,000 $50,000,000 5,000,000
2009 2010 Change
Liabilities & Equity:
Accounts Payable $7,000,000 $4,000,000 -3,000,000Notes payable 4,000,000 3,000,000 -1,000,000Accrued Expenses 3,000,000 2,000,000 -1,000,000Total current liabilities 14,000,000 9,000,000 -5,000,000 Long-term debt 10,784,000 15,000,000 4,216,000Total liabilities 24,784,000 24,000,000 -784,000Preferred Stock 2,000,000 1,000,000 -1,000,000Common stock 1,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000Capital in Excess of Par 10,000,000 12,000,000 2,000,000Retained earnings 7,216,000 10,000,000 2,784,000Total common equity 18,216,000 25,000,000 6,784,000Total equity 20,216,000 26,000,000 5,784,000
Total liabilities & equity $45,000,000 $50,000,000 5,000,000
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Balance SheetACME CORPORATION
Assets = Liabilities + Owner’s Equity
2009 2010 Change
Liabilities & Equity:
Accounts Payable $7,000,000 $4,000,000 -3,000,000Notes payable 4,000,000 3,000,000 -1,000,000Accrued Expenses 3,000,000 2,000,000 -1,000,000Total current liabilities 14,000,000 9,000,000 -5,000,000 Long-term debt 10,784,000 15,000,000 4,216,000Total liabilities 24,784,000 24,000,000 -784,000Preferred Stock 2,000,000 1,000,000 -1,000,000Common stock 1,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000Capital in Excess of Par 10,000,000 12,000,000 2,000,000Retained earnings 7,216,000 10,000,000 2,784,000Total common equity 18,216,000 25,000,000 6,784,000Total equity 20,216,000 26,000,000 5,784,000
Total liabilities & equity $45,000,000 $50,000,000 5,000,000
2009 2010 ChangeAssets:
Cash $9,000,000 $10,000,000 1,000,000Accounts receivable 700,000 1,000,000 300,000Inventory 17,300,000 10,000,000 -7,300,000Marketable Securities 9,000,000 8,000,000 -1,000,000Prepaid Expenses 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 Total current assets 37,000,000 30,000,000 -7,000,000Fixed Assets, Gross 14,000,000 28,000,000 14,000,000 less Accumulated Depr. (6,000,000) (8,000,000) -2,000,000 Fixed Assets, Net 8,000,000 20,000,000 12,000,000
Total assets $45,000,000 $50,000,000 5,000,000
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The Firm’s Financial StatementsIncome Statement:
Revenues - Expenses = Net Income
SalesInvestment Income
GainsInterest ReceivedDividends Received
COGSSalariesDepreciation Exp.TaxesOther ExpensesInterest Paid
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The Firm’s Financial StatementsIncome Statement:
Revenues - Expenses = Net Income
Dividends Δ Retained Earnings
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
Annual report includes:
Statement of Cash Flow
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
Statement of Cash Flows
Cash Inflow - Cash Outflow = Change in Cash
From Operations:
Cash Sales + Payments to Suppliers -Depreciation Exp. + Salaries -Collection of A/R + Increase A/R -Decrease inventory + Decrease Payables -
Decrease Accruals -
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The Firm’s Financial Statements
Statement of Cash Flows
Cash Inflow - Cash Outflow = Change in Cash
From Investing:
Sale of Fixed Assets + Purchase of fixed assets - Purchase of other firms -
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Statement of Cash FlowsCash Inflow - Cash Outflow = Change in Cash
From Financing:
Sale of stock + Buy back stock -Issue of LT debt + Repay LT debt -or notes payable + Pay dividends -
Pay interest -
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Market vs. Book Value
Market Value & Book Value can be very different.
Book Value is recorded initially at cost.
Changes in book value (depreciation) follow specified accounting rules.
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Market vs. Book Value Factors that determine the
disparity between market and book: Time since acquisition
More time, more difference
Inflation: Higher inflation, more difference
Tangible versus intangible assetsIntangible assets, more difference
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Market vs. Book ValueLiabilities
As with assets, the market value of liabilities may diverge from the book value, but the relationship is less complex.
The main factor that determines the difference between market and book values for liabilities of a healthy firm is:
“the time until a liability must be paid off ”
At maturity, the market value will equal the book value.
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Market vs. Book Value of Equity
Total Market Value of Equity is the market price per share times the number of shares outstanding.Book Value of equity reflects the changes in other asset and liability accounts since it is the account that can change to enforce the balance sheet identity.
Stockholders’ Equity = Assets - Liabilities
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DEPRECIATION
Accounting depreciation is the allocation of an asset’s initial cost over time.
Allowable depreciation expense is determined by established accounting rules.
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CALCULATION OF DEPRECIATIONDepreciable basis
Total amount to be depreciated over the accounting life of the asset.
Equal to cost of the asset plus any setup and delivery costs incurred.
Straight line depreciationBasis divided by accounting life with equal
amounts of depreciation allocated to each time period (except for half-year convention).
MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System) Specified percent charged each year.
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Federal Income Taxation Marginal and Average Tax Rates
Marginal = Tax Rate on the next dollar of income. Average = Taxes paid divided by taxable income.
Progressive Tax System Average tax rate increases with the level of
taxable income. Marginal tax rate is greater than the average tax
rate. (The current corp. tax rate schedule is not strictly progressive.)
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THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE• Suppose that every day, ten men go out for COFFEE AND CONVERSATION and the bill for all ten comes to $100...• If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this...
• The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing. • The fifth would pay $1. • The sixth would pay $3.• The seventh would pay $7.• The eighth would pay $12.• The ninth would pay $18. • The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
The ten men drank COFFEE every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve ball. "Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily coffee bill by $20". Unlimited coffee for the ten men would now cost just $80. The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share? They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink THEIR COFFEE.
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• At a bill of $80, in order to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.
• Now, the first four men along with the fifth would pay nothing.• The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% saving).• The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% saving). • The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% saving).• The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% saving). • The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% saving).
So, the owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by a higher percentage the poorer he was, to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.
THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE
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Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings. "I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man AND SAID, "but he got $10!“ "Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar too. It's unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me!“ "That's true!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!“ "Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "we didn't get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!“ The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.The next night the tenth man didn't show up for COFFEE AND CONVERSATION so the nine sat down and had their COFFEE without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something VERY important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE
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And that, my dear students is exactly how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking coffee overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier. For those who understand this, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible because you never will get it.
THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE
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Income % of Total Income Tax Paid
Top 1% 40%
Top 10% 71%
Top 50% 97%
From 2009 IRS Data
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Accounts Receivable Tax Building Permit Tax
CDL License Tax Cigarette Tax
Corporate Income Tax Dog License Tax
Federal Income Tax Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
Fishing License Tax Food License Tax Fuel Permit Tax
Gasoline Tax
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Hunting License Tax Inheritance Tax Inventory Tax
IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax) IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
Liquor Tax Luxury Tax
Marriage License Tax Medicare Tax Property Tax
Real Estate Tax Service charge taxes
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Social Security Tax Road Usage Tax (Truckers)
Sales Taxes Recreational Vehicle Tax
School Tax State Income Tax
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA) Telephone Federal Excise Tax
Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Tax
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge TaxTelephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax
Telephone State and Local Tax Telephone Usage Charge Tax
Utility Tax Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax Workers Compensation Tax
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Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago...
and our nation was the most prosperous in the world.
We had absolutely no national debt... We had the largest middle class in the world... And there was only one wage-
earner per family
What happened?Can you spell
'politicians!'
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Differential Tax Treatmentof Interest and Dividends
Interest paid on corporate debt is a tax deductible expense.
Dividends paid to common and preferred stockholders is not tax deductible.
Dividends received by a corporation from another corporation have at least a 70% exclusion from taxable income.
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Differential Tax Treatmentof Interest and Dividends
Dividend IncomeCorp “B” owns 100 shares of Common Stock in Corp “A”
Corp “A”
Corp “B”
Corp “A” pays a $2/share dividend to shareholders.
$200
30% or $60 is Taxable 70% or $140 is Tax Free
Corp. “B” pays marginal tax rate of 25%
$60 x .25 = $15 Federal Taxes on dividend income
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Income % of Total Income Tax Paid Top 1% 40% Top 10% 71% Top 50% 97%
From 2008 IRS Data
Who Pays all the Bills? The Taxpayer that’s Who (Just
Us) Don’t forgetWho pays the
bills.
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1. Explain the difference between debt and equity. Why must the two equal total assets?
2. Ajax Inc. had profits of $200,000 for the year. Their retained earnings account grew from $800,000 at the beginning of the year to $950,000 by year end. How much did the firm pay out in dividends?
3. Calculate earnings per share for the following:Net income $500,000Interest expense: $ 50,000Common Dividends paid $100,000Common shares outstanding 100,000
4. Working capital includes both current and non-current assets. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Explain.
5. Explain why common stockholders are paid after preferred stockholders.
6. Are retained earnings and cash the same thing?
Homework Questions and Problems
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Analysis of FinancialStatements
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Learning Objectives
• How financial ratio analysis helps managers assess the firm’s health.
• Compute profitability, liquidity, debt, asset activity, and market value ratios.
• Compare financial information over time and among companies.
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Ratio AnalysisFinancial managers use ratios to
interpret the raw numbers on financial statements.
Relative measures allow comparison over time and to other firms.
Ratios are used by financial managers, other business managers, creditors, and investors.
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Ratio Analysis
• Profitability ratios• Liquidity ratios• Debt ratios• Asset activity ratios• Market value ratios
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Five Categories of Ratios
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Ratio Analysis
• Measure the overall effectiveness of the firm’s management.
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Profitability Ratios
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Ratio Analysis
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Gross Profit Margin =Gross Profit
Sales
How effective is the firm at generating revenue in excess of its cost of goods sold?
Profitability Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Bonds $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Net Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60 Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
$575 $1,450
Gross Profit Margin = = 39.7%
GrossProfit =Margin
Gross ProfitSales
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Ratio Analysis
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Operating Profit Margin =Operating Income
Sales
How effective is the firm in keeping costs of production low?
Profitability Ratios
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Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$330 $1,450
Oper. Profit Margin = = 22.8%
OperatingProfit =Margin
Operating IncomeSales
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Ratio Analysis
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Net Profit Margin =Net Income
Sales
How much net profit is being generated from each dollar of sales?
Profitability Ratios
Note: Net Income equals Earnings Available to CS
when there is no preferred stock.
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$162 $1,450
Net Profit Margin = = 11.2%
NetProfit =Margin
Net IncomeSales
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Ratio Analysis
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Return on Assets = Net IncomeTotal Assets
How effectively is the firm generating net income from its assets ?
Profitability Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40) 108Net Income% $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$162 $2,530ROA = = 6.4%
Return onAssets
Net IncomeTotal Assets=
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Ratio Analysis
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Return on Equity = Net Income Common Equity
How well is the firm generating return to its equity providers?
Profitability Ratios
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Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530Sales $1,450
Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$162 $1,700
ROE = = 9.53%
Return on Equity = Net Income Common Equity
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Ratio Analysis
Measure the ability of the firm to meet its short-term financial obligations.
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Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities
Are there sufficient current assets to pay off current liabilities? What is the cushion of safety?
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Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
$1,230$230
Current Ratio = = 5.35x
Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities
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Ratio Analysis
• Measure the ability of the firm to meet its short-term financial obligations.
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Liquidity Ratios
Acid-Test Ratio = Current Assets - InventoryCurrent Liabilities
What happens to the firm’s ability to repay current liabilities after what is usually the least liquid of the current assets is subtracted?
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Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
$1,230 -$625$230
Acid-Test Ratio = = 2.63x
Acid-Test Ratio = Current Assets - Inventory Current Liabilities
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
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Ratio Analysis
Measure the relative size of the firm’s debt load and the firm’s ability to pay off the debt.
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Debt Ratios
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Ratio Analysis
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Debt Ratio = Total Debt Total Assets
What proportion of the firm’s assets is financed with debt?
Debt Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
$230 + $600 $2,530
Debt Ratio = = 33%
Debt Ratio = Total Debt Total Assets
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Ratio Analysis
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What is the proportion of debt relative to equity financing for the firm?
Debt Ratios
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total Debt Common Equity
=
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
$230 + $600 $1,700
D/E = = 48.8%
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total Debt Common Equity=
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Ratio Analysis
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Times Interest Earned Ratio = Operating IncomeInterest Expense
What is the firm’s ability to repay interest payments from its operating income?
Debt Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
$330 $60TIE Ratio = = 5.50x
TimesInterest =Earned Ratio
Operating IncomeInterest Expense
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
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Ratio Analysis
• Help assess how effectively the firm is using assets to generate sales.
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Asset Activity Ratios
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Ratio Analysis
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Asset Activity Ratios
How long does it take for the firm on average to collect its credit sales from customers?
Average Collection Period = Accounts Receivable Avg. Daily Credit Sales
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Bonds $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
AverageCollection = Period
Accounts ReceivableAvg. Daily Credit Sales
$430 $1,450/365 ACP = = 108.24 days
Days in a year
Additional Info:We assume all sales are creditsales.
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Ratio Analysis
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Inventory Turnover Ratio = Sales Inventory
Is inventory efficiently translating into sales for the firm?
Asset Activity Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$1450$625
Inventory Turnover = = 2.3x
InventoryTurnover =Ratio
Sales Inventory
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Ratio Analysis
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Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio = Sales
Net Fixed Assets
How effective is the firm in using its fixed assets to help generate sales?
Asset Activity Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Assets Liabilities
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
$1,450$1,300
Fixed Asset Turnover = = 1.12x
Fixed AssetTurnover = Ratio
Sales Net Fixed Assets
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Ratio Analysis
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Total Asset Turnover Ratio = Sales Total Assets
How effective is the firm in using its overall assets to generate sales?
Asset Activity Ratios
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Assets Liabilities
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
$1,450 $2,530
Total Asset Turnover = = 0.57x
Total AssetTurnover = Ratio
Sales Total Assets
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
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Ratio Analysis
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Price to Earnings Ratio = Market Price per ShareEarnings per Share
How much are investors willing to pay per dollar of earnings of the firm?
(Indicator of investor’s attitudes toward future prospects of the firm and of the firm’s risk.)
Market Value Ratios
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Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Assets Liabilities
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
Additional Info:100 shares$20.00 per share
$20.00 $162/100
P/E ratio = = 12.35x
P/E Ratio
Market Price/ShareEPS
=
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60 Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
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Ratio Analysis
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Market to Book Ratio = Market Price per ShareBook Value per Share
How much are investors willing to pay per dollar of book value?
Market Value Ratios
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Assets Liabilities
Balance SheetExcalibur Corporation
$20.00 $1,700/100
M/B = = 1.18x
Market to = Book
Price/Share Common Equity/ # shares
Cash $175 Accounts Payable $115Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable 115Inventories 625 Current Liabilities $230 Current Assets $1,230 Long-term Debt $600Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owner’s Equity Less:Acc. Depr. (1,200) Common Stock $300Net Fixed Assets $1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600 Total Assets $2,530 Retained Earnings 800
Total Owners’ Equity $1,700Total Liabilities and Owners Equity $2,530
Additional Info:100 shares$20.00 per
share
Income StatementExcalibur Corporation
Sales $1,450Cost of Goods Sold 875Gross Profit $575Operating Expenses 45Depreciation 200Operating Income $330Interest Expense 60Income Before Taxes $270Taxes (40%) 108Net Income $162Common Dividends Paid 100Addition to Retained Earnings $62
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EBITDAEBITDA stands for Earnings Before
Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.
It is often of great interest to financial analysts although FASB does not require that this number be reported.
It measures the amount of cash thrown off from the operations of the company.
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Ratio Industry ExcaliburProfitabilityGross Profit Margin 38% 39.7%Operating Profit Margin 20% 22.8%Net Profit Margin 12% 11.2%Return on Assets 9.0% 6.4%Return on Equity 13.4% 9.5%
Excalibur is good at keeping operating costs down, but not as
good at total costs. ROA and ROE are low mainly due to productivity
problems.
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Ratio Industry ExcaliburLiquidityCurrent Ratio 5.00x 5.35xAcid-Test Ratio 3.00x 2.63x
Looking at the current ratio it appears that Excalibur is more liquid than the industry.... however when looking at
Acid Test (a better measure) they are not as liquid indicating that inventory
levels are probably too high.
Summary of Excalibur Corporation Ratios
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Ratio Industry ExcaliburDebtDebt Ratio 35% 33%Times Interest Earned 7.00x 5.50xDebt to Equity 49% 48% While the debt ratio is close to the industry
average, Excalibur is not able to cover interest payments as easily as the industry. This indicates Excalibur may have too much
debt relative to what they can realistically afford.
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Ratio Industry Excalibur
Asset Activity Avg. Collection Period 90 days 108 daysInventory Turnover 3.00x 2.32xFixed Asset Turnover 1.00x 1.12xTotal Asset Turnover 0.75x .57x
Collection policies need examining, as Excalibur is slower than average at collecting receivables.
Inventories are being sold more slowly than the industry average, again indicating inventories that
are too high. Excalibur is very efficient at converting Fixed Assets to Sales (fixed assets are productive).
However, overall assets are not productive indicating Current Assets (e.g. inventories) are not
as productive as for the industry.
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Ratio Industry ExcaliburMarket Value Price Earnings 18.0 12.35 Market to Book 2.5 1.18
Excalibur’s Investors are not willing to pay as much per dollar of earnings or
per dollar of book value as they are for shares in other firms in the industry.
This signals that they consider the firm’sprospects to be worse than the average.However, the firm is still selling for more
than its accounting book value.
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Relationships Among Ratios:The Du Pont System
• Ratio Analysis generally involves an examination of related ratios.
• Comparison of these relationships over time helps to identify the company’s strengths and weaknesses.
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Net Inc. Net Inc. Sales Assets Sales Assets
= x
The Du Pont Equation
Net ProfitMargin
Total AssetTurnover
Return onAssets
= x
Relationships Among Ratios:The Du Pont System
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Relationships Among Ratios:The Du Pont System
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The Modified Du Pont Equation
Net Inc. Net Inc. Sales AssetsEquity Sales Assets Equity = x x
Net ProfitMargin
Total AssetTurnover
Return onEquity
EquityMultiplier
= x x
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Homework Questions & Problems:
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Use the following information to answer the questions. Elton CorporationIncome Statementfor the year ending 12/31/XX(in thousands of dollars)
Net sales $ 2,700Operating Costs (2,350)Depreciation ( 150)Interest Expense ( 70)
EBT 130Income Tax (40%) ( 52)
Net Income $ 78
Dividends to Common Stock = $ 58
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Homework Questions & Problems:
86
Elton CorporationBalance Sheet
12/31/XX(in thousands of dollars)
Cash $ 150
Accounts Payable $100Accounts Receivable 250
Notes Payable 250Inventory 600 Other Current Liabilities 50Total Current Assets $1,000 Total Current Liabilities $400 Total Fixed Assets 1,500 Long Term Debt 1,100
Common Stock 800 Retained Earnings 200
Total Assets $2,500 Total Liab. & Equity $2,500 Number of shares outstanding = 10,000 sharesPrice per Share = $100
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Homework Questions & Problems:
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1. Calculate each of the following ratios. Be sure to give the complete equation as well as the solution:
a. Current ratiob. Quick ratioc. Total Debt/Total Asset Ratiod. Inventory Turnover Ratioe. ROEf. TIEg. EPSh. Net Profit Margini. Market to Book Ratioj. Total Assets Turnover Ratio
2. Show the Modified DuPont Equation for the company.
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Homework Questions & Problems:
88
3. Given these industry ratios:Net Profit Margin 4.3%Debt/Asset 40%Total Asset Turnover 1.1
ROA 4.73%
Use the DuPont equation to compare the performance of Elton Corp to the industry average. What can you say about their(a) profitability, (b) expense control, (c) asset management, and (d) debt management.
4. A firm expects to have net income of $85,000. If preferred dividends paid are 42,000, common stock dividends paid are $20,000, and shares of common stock outstanding are 10,000, what is the EPS?
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Homework Questions & Problems:
89
5. Fill in the missing data based on the information provided for years 2009 and 2010.
ABC CORPORATIONBalance Sheet Changes and ClassificationOf Key Accounts between 2009 and 2010
Account 2009 2010 Change Source/UseLong-term debt $960 $800Accounts receivable $640 $500Common stock $200 $300Cash $640 $500Retained earnings $960 $800Accruals $50 $200Inventory $840 $600Accounts payable $1,150 $1,000Net fixed assets $1,800 $2,000
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Forecasting forFinancial Planning
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Learning Objectives:
• The importance of forecasting to business success.
• The financial forecasting process.• Preparation of pro forma financial
statements.• The importance of analyzing forecasts.
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Why is forecasting important?
– If you produce too much of a product, or a product that no one wants to buy, you still must pay for materials, labor, and storage.
– If you produce too little of a product, you will lose sales and possibly market share.
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Mistakes are costly:
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Forecasting Approaches
• Experience• Probability• Correlation
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Financial managers concentrate on
three general approaches to financial
forecasting:
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Experience
• Managers who have been in the business for a long time have developed a sense for the patterns in sales, expenses, consumer demand factors, etc.– Example: Editors who work for book
publishers regularly read submitted manuscripts and make judgments about whether their company should buy the rights to publish the books.
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Probability
• Past history often tells us a lot about what will happen in the future.
• Managers can use this information to estimate the future.– Example: In the past, a 7-11 manager has
found that she will lose 1% of candy inventory to shoplifters. She can use this information to estimate future losses and also to design better controls.
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Correlation
• Correlation is a measure of the relative movement of two variables relative to each other. – Example: If interest rates go up, a real estate agent
knows that home sales will tend to fall (because the higher cost of financing makes it harder for buyers to qualify for mortgages).
– Example: Sales of umbrellas are higher in rainy seasons.
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The Sales Forecasting Process
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Finance Department
Marketing(sales estimate)
Top Management(policy, strategy)
Production(capacity, schedules)
Accounting(financial statements,depreciation, taxes)
SALESFORECAST
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Forecast future sales based on past sales growth
98
Time
Sales
Plot of Past Sales
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
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Forecast future sales based on past sales growth
99
Time
Sales
Trend Line
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
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Forecast future sales based on past sales growth
100
Time
Sales
Growth Rate
Sales Estimates for next 2 years
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
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Also include the effects of any events which are expected to impact future sales (new products or economic conditions)
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Time
Sales
Forecast future sales based on past sales growth
New Product Introduced
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
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• Also include the effects of any events which are expected to impact future sales (new products or economic conditions)
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Time
Sales
Forecast future sales based on past sales growth
New Product Introduced
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Sales Growth Imposes Costs on the Firm
– Current Assets: Inventory, A/R, Cash– Fixed Assets: Plant and Equipment
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20092010
Will require additional resources
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Pro Forma Financial Statements
• Pro forma financial statements are forecasts of the firm’s future financial statements based on a certain set of assumptions about sales trends and the relationships between sales and various financial variables, and between other financial statement variables relative to each other.
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Producing Pro Formas
Sales will increase from $5million to $8 million.Production is at full capacity (24 hrs. per day).Dividend payout will be 70% of NI.Spontaneous balance sheet accounts. increase in
a constant proportion to sales.
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Example Data for Marginal Product Inc.
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Producing Pro Formas
106
Note: The projected saleswill be determined after inputfrom many different units ordepartments of the firm.
Determining Sales Growth
= 60%$8 - $5 $5
Step 1:
Income StatementMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000s
Sales $5,000 COGS 4,133 EBIT 867Int 200EBT 667Tax (.40) 267NI 400
Current Projected
$8,000
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Producing Pro Formas
107
Calculate projected Net Income. New COGS =
Old COGS x 1.6 = 6,613
Note: There is no increase yetin the interest charges sinceMarginal Product’s managershave not yet decided how they
will finance the growth.
Step 2:
Income StatementMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000s
Sales $5,000 $8,000COGS 4,133 6,613EBIT 867 1,387Int 200 200EBT 667 1,187Tax (.40) 267 475NI 400 712
Current Projected
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Producing Pro Formas
108
Forecast increase in assets (% of sales)
Step 3:
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 Accounts Payable $1.0 Net Fixed Assets 3.0 Accrued Expenses 0.5 Total $5.5 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
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Producing Pro Formas
109
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 Net Fixed Assets 3.0 Accrued Expenses 0.5 Total $5.5 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
Forecast increase in assets (% of sales). If sales increase by 60%, so too will any asset that remains a constant percent of sales.
Step 3:
$2.5(1+.60) = $4.0
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Producing Pro Formas
110
Forecast increase in assets (% of sales)
Step 3:
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
+$3.30
$3.0(1+.60) = $4.8
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Producing Pro Formas
111
Forecast increase inspontaneous liabilities.
Step 4:
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
$1.0(1+.60) = $1.60
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Producing Pro Formas
112
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 .8Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
$0.5(1+.60) = $0.80
Forecast increase inspontaneous liabilities.
Step 4:
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Producing Pro Formas
113
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 .8Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 Long Term Debt $2.0 Common Stock 0.5 Retained Earnings 1.5 1.7Common Equity $2.0 Total Claims $5.5
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected New retained earnings =Old retained earnings + additions to ret. earnings=1.5 + [NI x (1-div. payout)]=1.5 + [.712 x (1-.7)] = 1.7
Forecast increase inretained earnings.
Step 5:
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Producing Pro Formas
114
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 .8Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 2.4Long Term Debt $2.0 2.0Common Stock 0.5 .5Retained Earnings 1.5 1.7Common Equity $2.0 2.2Total Claims $5.5 $6.6
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
Hold other accounts constant to see how much additional
funds will be needed.
Step 6:
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Producing Pro Formas
115
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
AFN = $8.8 - 6.6 = $2.2 mill.
Additional funds needed (AFN) = projected assetsminus projected claims
Step 7:
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 .8Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 2.4Long Term Debt $2.0 2.0Common Stock 0.5 .5Retained Earnings 1.5 1.7Common Equity $2.0 2.2Total Claims $5.5 $6.6
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Producing Pro Formas
116
Balance SheetMarginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s
Assets Current Projected Liabilities Current Projected
AFN = $8.8 - 6.6 = $2.2 mill.
Current Assets $2.5 $4.0 Accounts Payable $1.0 $1.6Net Fixed Assets 3.0 4.8 Accrued Expenses 0.5 .8Total $5.5 $8.8 Notes Payable 0.0 0.0
Current Liabilities $1.5 2.4Long Term Debt $2.0 2.0Common Stock 0.5 .5Retained Earnings 1.5 1.7Common Equity $2.0 2.2Total Claims $5.5 $6.6
Raise $2.2 million Using: Notes Payable, and/or LT Debt, and/or Common Stock
Additional funds needed (AFN) = projected assetsminus projected claims
Step 7:
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Producing Pro Formas Summary
• Determine sales growth.• Calculate projected net income.• Project assets needed to support the new sales
level.• Project increases in spontaneous asset and
liability accounts.• Project addition to retained earnings.• Determine the difference between projected
assets and projected liabilities & equity.
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Financing feedback
If outside financing is required, the new debt or equity may affect your original projections of the amount of the addition to retained earnings (due to increased interest or dividends on the income statement).
In this case, the pro forma should be recast with the new information to make final projections of AFN.
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119
1. Briefly discuss the three general approaches to forecasting.
2. Why is forecasting important?
3. Distinguish between the cash budget and the capital budget.
Homework Questions
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120
4. Given the following data on the Sands Corporation, project the balance sheet for the coming year using the percentage of sales technique:
Current Sales: $650,000Next year’s sales: $925,000After-tax profits: 6% of SalesDividend payout ratio: 40%Current retained earnings: $200,000Accounts receivable as a percent of sales: 10%Cash as a percent of sales: 5%Inventory as a percent of sales: 32%Net fixed assets as a percent of sales: 38%Accounts payable as a percent of sales: 6%Accruals as a percent of sales: 12%Next year’s common stock: $200,000
Sands CorporationBalance Sheet
December 31, 2005ASSETS LIABILITIES AND EQUITIESCash (a) Accounts payable (f )Accounts receivable (b) Notes payable (g)Inventory (c) Accruals (h)Net fixed assets (d) Common stock (i )
Retained earnings (j )Total ( e ) Total ( k )
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121
Risk and Return
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122
Learning Objectives
Define risk, risk aversion, and risk-return tradeoff.
Measure risk. Identify different types of risk. Explain methods of risk reduction. Describe how firms compensate for
risk. Discuss the CAPM.
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Expected Return
• Expected return is the mean of the probability distribution of possible returns.
• Future returns are not known with certainty. The standard deviation is a measure of this uncertainty.
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Expected Return• Expected return is the mean of the probability
distribution of possible returns.• Future returns are not known with certainty• To calculate expected return, compute the
weighted average of possible returns
124
where m = Expected return Vi = Possible value of return during period i Pi = Probability of V occurring during period i
m = (S Vi x Pi)
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Expected Return Calculation
125
Example:
You are evaluating Zumwalt Corporation’s common stock. You estimate the following returns given different states of the economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 –5%Zero Growth .20 5%Moderate Growth .40 10%High Growth .30 20%
= – 0.5%= 1.0%= 4.0%= 6.0%
k = 10.5%
Expected rate of return on the stock is 10.5%
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Risk and Rates of Return
• Risk is the potential for unexpected events to occur.
• If two financial alternatives are similar except for their degree of risk, most people will choose the less risky alternative because they are risk averse i.e. they don’t like risk.
• Risk averse investors will require higher expected rates of return as compensation for taking on higher levels of risk.
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Measurement of Investment Risk
127
Example:You evaluate two investments: Zumwalt Corporation’s common stock and a one year Gov't Bond paying a guaranteed 2%.
100%
Return
Probability of Return
T-Bill
2% Return
10%
Probability of Return
Zumwalt Corp
5%
20%30%40%
10% 20%–5%
There is risk in owning Zumwalt stock, no risk in owning the T-bills
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Measurement of Investment Risk• Standard Deviation ( ) s measures the dispersion of
returns. It is the square root of the variance.
128
Example:Compute the standard deviation on Zumwalt common stock. the mean (m) was previously computed as 10.5%
= s SQRT( S P(V - m)2)
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 5%Zero Growth .20 5%Moderate Growth .40 10%High Growth .30 20%
(- - 10.5%)2 = .24025%
( - 10.5%)2 = .001%( - 10.5%)2 = .27075%
( - 10.5%)2 = .0605%
S= s2 = variance
s2 = .005725 = 0.5725%s = SQRT of 0.005725s = .07566 = 7.566%
= s7.566%
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Risk and Rates of Return
– Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
129
― Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market conditions
Stock price is likely to rise if overall stock market is doing well.
Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two parts:
Stock price will most likely fall if a major government contract is discontinued unexpectedly.
Diversification: If investors hold stock in many companies, the firm specific risk will be cancelled out.
Even if investors hold many stocks, cannot eliminate the market related risk
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Risk and Rates of Return• Risk and Diversification
– If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about 15-20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually eliminated
130
# of stocks in Portfolio
Variability of Returns
Market Related Risk
b
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Risk and Rates of Return• Risk and Diversification
– If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about 20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually eliminated
131
# of stocks in Portfolio
Variability of Returns
Firm Specific Risk
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Risk and Rates of Return• Risk and Diversification
– If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about 20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually eliminated
132
# of stocks in Portfolio
Variability of Returns
Total Risk
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Risk and Rates of Return• Market risk is the risk of the overall market, so to
measure we need to compare individual stock returns to the overall market returns.
• A proxy for the market is usually used: An index of stocks such as the S&P 500
• Market risk measures how individual stock returns are affected by this market
• Regress individual stock returns on the returns of the market index
133
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Risk and Rates of Return• Regress individual stock returns on Market index
134
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
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Risk and Rates of ReturnRegress individual stock returns on Market index. Plot ordered pairs every 6
months for ten years starting in January 1999.
135
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Jan 1999PepsiCo-0.37%S&P -1.99%
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Risk and Rates of Return• Regress individual stock returns on Market index
136
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Plot Remaining Points
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Risk and Rates of Return
137
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Best Fit Regression Line
Regress individual stock returns on Market index returns
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Risk and Rates of Return
138
Regress individual stock returns on Market index returns
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Slope = riserun
5.5%5%
= = 1.1
-5%
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Risk and Rates of Return
Market Risk is measured by Beta
139
Beta is the slope of the regression (characteristic) line.
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Risk and Rates of Return• Market Risk is measured by Beta
– Beta is the slope of the regression (characteristic) line
140
S&PReturn
PepsiCoReturn
-15% 15%-10% -5% 10%5%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Slope = 1.1 = Beta ( )b
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Risk and Rates of Return• Interpreting Beta
141
Beta = 1Market Beta = 1Company with a beta of 1 has average risk
Beta < 1Low Risk CompanyReturn on stock will be less affected by the market
than average Beta > 1
High Market Risk CompanyStock return will be more affected by the market
than average
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Investors adjust their required rates of return to compensate for risk.
142
kj = kRF + bj ( kM – kRF )Security Market Line
where:Kj = required rate of return on the jth securityKRF = risk free rate of returnKM = required rate of return on the marketBj = Beta for the jth security
The Capital Asset Pricing Model
The CAPM measures required rate of return for investments, given the degree of market risk measured by beta.
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CAPM Example
• Suppose that the required return on the market is 12% and the risk free rate is 5%.
143
kj = kRF + bj ( kM – kRF )
Security Market Line
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CAPM Example
• Suppose that the required return on the market is 12% and the risk free rate is 5%.
144
Beta1.51.0.50
15%
10%
5%
Risk Free Rate
kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
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CAPM Example• Suppose that the required return on the market
is 12% and the risk free rate is 5%.
145
Beta1.51.0.50
15%
10%
5%
Risk & Return on market
kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
Risk Free Rate
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CAPM Example
• Suppose that the required return on the market is 12% and the risk free rate is 5%.
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Beta1.51.0.50
15%
10%
5%
SML
Connect Points forSecurity Market Line
Market
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CAPM Example
If beta = 1.2 kj = 13.4
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Beta1.5.50
15%
10%
5%
SML13.4%
1.0 1.2
Suppose that the required return on the market is 12% and the risk free rate is 5%.
kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
Market
Company kj
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Homework
1. You hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and are considering investing in the XYZ Company. The firm’s prospects look good and you estimate the following probability distribution of possible returns:
Probability Return 70% 15% 20% 9% 10% 20%
The return on the market is 13.5% and the risk free rate is 7%. You have calculated XYZ’s beta from past returns as 1.3 and you believe this will be the future beta.
a. What is the expected return for XYZ? b. What is the required return for XYZ according to the CAPM?
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Homework
2. Assume your existing portfolio is valued at $9,000 and its beta is 1.0. You plan to buy an additional $3,000 of a particular stock that has a beta of 1.8 (without selling any other stock). What is the beta of the new portfolio?
3. Distinguish between business risk and financial risk.
4. What is risk aversion? How does the assumption of risk aversion affect the risk/return tradeoff?
5. Compare diversifiable and nondiversifiable risk. What are some examples of each type of risk?
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The Time Valueof Money
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Learning Objectives
• The “time value of money” and its importance to business.
• The future value and present value of a single amount.
• The future value and present value of an annuity.
• The present value of a series of uneven cash flows.
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• Money grows over time when it earns interest.
• Therefore, money that is to be received at some time in the future is worth less than the same dollar amount to be received today.
• Similarly, a debt of a given amount to be paid in the future are less burdensome than that debt to be paid now.
The Time Value of Money
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1. Future Value of Single Sum
$ ?
PV i N CPT FV
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2. Future Value of an Annuity
$ $ $ ?Today
PMT i N CPT FV
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3. Sinking Fund
? ? ? $
FV i N CPT PMT
Today
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4. Present Value Single Payment
? $
FV i N CPT PV
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5. Present Value of the Annuity
? $ $ $
PMT i N CPT PV
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6. Amortized Loans
$? ? ?
PV i N CPT PMT
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Financial Calculator Solution - FV Example: You invest $200
at 10%. How much is it worth after 5 years?
1) Calculator Enter:N = 5I/YR = 10PV = -200CPT FV = ?
2) Using Formula:
FV = $200 (1.10)5 = $322.10
322.10
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If you would have bought Berkshire Hathaway stock 20 years ago and spent $10,000 for your investment, how much would you have today if the average annual compounded rate of return was 18%?
How long it will take for $2,500 to become $8,865 if it is deposited and earns 5% per year compounded annually? (Calculate to the closest year).
If you deposit a lump sum of $1,200 today into a savings account offering annual interest of 5% compounded monthly, how much will you have in the account at the end of three years?
If you deposit $100 in the bank today at an annual rate of 5.5% compounded annually, how long will it take to double in value?
Your Aunt Matilda Mae makes you the following offer: $14,000 upon undergraduate graduation now or $15,200 upon MBA graduation in 2 years. Which offer should you take if current rates are 4%.
Do all these homework problems on your overhead homework sheets: use your calculator and show the
keys you would press and circle your answer:
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Annuities• An annuity is a series of equal cash flows
spaced evenly over time.• For example, you pay your landlord an annuity
since your rent is the same amount, paid on the same day of the month for the entire year.
$500 $500 $500 $500 $500
Jan Feb Mar Dec
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Future Value of an Annuity
0 1 2 3
$0 $100 $100 $100
You deposit $100 each year (end of year) into a savings account.
How much would this account have in it at the end of 3 years if interest were earned at a rate of 2% annually?
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Future Value of an Annuity
Using the Calculator:
Don’t forget to clear your calculator of the previous
problem!
N = 3I/Y = 2PV = -$200CPT FV = $212.24
$212.24
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Do all these homework problems on your overhead homework sheets: use your calculator and show the
keys you would press and circle your answer:
What is the future value of an ordinary annuity of $1,000 each year for 10 years, assuming a 4% compounding rate?
What is the future value of an annuity due of $1,000 each year for 10 years assuming a 4% compounding rate?
Dan plans to fund his IRA with a contribution of $ 200 per month for the next 10 years. If Dan can earn 6% per year on his contributions, how much will he have at the end of the 10th year?
James plans to fund his IRA with a lump-sum today of $10,000 and 20 annual deposits of $2,000 for the next 25 years. If he can earn 5% compounded annually, how much will he have at the end of 25 years?
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Future Value of an Annuity Due
You deposit $100 each year (beginning of year) into a savings account.
How much would this account have in it at the end of 3 years if interest were earned at a rate of 8% annually?
0 1 2 3
$100 $100 $100 FVA=?
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Annuity Due: Calculator Solution
Example: You receive $100 per year for 3 years. How much is it worth after 3 years if you can
earn 4% annually?
N = 3I/Y = 4PMT = -$100CPT FV = $312.16
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Do all these homework problems on your overhead homework sheets: use your calculator and show the
keys you would press and circle your answer:*NOW ASSUME ALL PAYMENTS ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD*
What is the future value of an ordinary annuity of $1,000 each year for 10 years, assuming a 4% compounding rate?
What is the future value of an annuity due of $1,000 each year for 10 years assuming a 4% compounding rate?
Dan plans to fund his IRA with a contribution of $ 200 per month for the next 10 years. If Dan can earn 6% per year on his contributions, how much will he have at the end of the 10th year?
James plans to fund his IRA with a lump-sum today of $10,000 and 20 annual deposits of $2,000 for the next 25 years. If he can earn 5% compounded annually, how much will he have at the end of 25 years?
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Financial Calculator Solution – PV of a Single Sum
You Expect to receive $100 in EIGHT years. If can invest at 3%, what is it
worth today?
Calculator Enter:N = 8I/YR = 3FV = 100CPT PV = ?
-78.94
-78.94
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N I/Y PV PM FV
Present Value of an AnnuityCalculator Solution
PV=?
Enter:N = 3I/YR = 8PMT = 100CPT PV = ?
0 1 2 3
$100 $100 $100
-257.71
-257.71
-257.71
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Present Value of an Annuity Due
$92.60$85.73
$278.33
0 1 2 3
$100 $100 $100
How much would the following cash flows be worth to you today if you could earn 8% on your deposits?
$100.00
BGNN = 3PMT = -100I/Y = 8CPT PV = 278.33
278.33
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Amortized Loans
• A loan that is paid off in equal amounts that include principal as well as interest.
• Solving for loan payments.
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N I/Y PV PMT FV
0 1 2 3 4 5
$5,000 $? $? $? $? $?
–1,186.98ENTER:N = 5I/Y = 6PV = 5,000CPT PMT = ?
Amortized LoansYou borrow $5,000 from your parents to purchase a used car. You agree to
make payments at the end of each year for the next 5 years. If the interest rate on this loan is 6%, how much is your annual payment?
-1,186.98
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Do all these homework problems on your overhead homework sheets: use your calculator and show the
keys you would press and circle your answer:
1. Calculate the present value of annual payments of $3,000 per year for ten years at 8%:
a. Ordinary Annuityb. Annuity Due
2. How much will you have at the end of the 6th year if you invest $5,000 annually for six years at 7% annual rate, if you:
a. Start one year from todayb. Start today
3. A bank agrees to give you a loan of $12,000,000 and you have to pay $1,309,908 per year (end of year) for 26 years. What is your rate of interest? What would the payments be if this were a monthly payment loan?
4. You have found the perfect burial plot. Of course, you don't plan to need it for 60 years. The plot costs $12,000 today and burial plot prices are increasing at 4% per year. How much do you need to deposit at the beginning of each of the next 60 years to pay for the plot if you can earn 11% on your deposit?