r graphics output · 2020. 8. 10. · individual models inner bands: 50% prediction intervals outer...
TRANSCRIPT
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National
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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030
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0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−Mobility
Oliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWSTHUAUCLA
UCMUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
000
1500
0025
0000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWSTH
UAUCLAUCMUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Alabama
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
0050
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
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Alaska
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
2025
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
2025
30
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
012
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
012
0
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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American Samoa
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLNQESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLNQESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Arizona
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0020
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ●
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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0060
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Arkansas
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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0015
00
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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California
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUCMUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
00
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0015
000
2500
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLAUCM
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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0015
000
2500
0
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Colorado
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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015
0025
00
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Connecticut
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
0070
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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0070
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Delaware
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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4060
8010
0
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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EnsembleIndividual models
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District of Columbia
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
2025
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIUAUCLA
UMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
2025
30
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlen
LANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIUA
UCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Florida
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ●
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
00
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0015
000
2500
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
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0015
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0
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Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Georgia
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDGT−CHHSIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
00
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDGT−CHHSIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Guam
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
2
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHULNQNotreDame−MobilityPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
YYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
2
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
02
46
810
12
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHULNQNotreDame−MobilityPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
YYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
02
46
810
12
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Hawaii
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUA
UCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
80
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG
UAUCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Idaho
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
0025
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
0025
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Illinois
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
1400
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
1400
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Indiana
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●●
● ●● ●
Iowa
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●●
● ●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ●
● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ●
● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●●
● ●
●
●
●
Kansas
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
012
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●●
● ●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
012
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Kentucky
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Louisiana
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
0010
000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
0010
000
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Maine
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
● ●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
● ●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
● ●
Maryland
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
● ●●
●●
●
Massachusetts
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0010
000
1500
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0010
000
1500
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ●
●
●●
● ●
Michigan
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ●
●
●●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0040
0060
0080
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●●
● ●●
Minnesota
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●●
● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
● ● ●
●●
Mississippi
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
● ● ●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
0050
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
0050
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
Missouri
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
0025
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
0020
0025
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
● ●
Montana
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
014
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
014
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ● ●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Nebraska
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
6070
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
6070
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
● ●●
●●
Nevada
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ●
●● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0020
0030
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0020
0030
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
New Hampshire
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ● ● ●● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ● ● ●● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
030
050
070
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
New Jersey
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0015
000
2500
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
0015
000
2500
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
New Mexico
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
New York
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
000
3000
050
000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
000
3000
050
000
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●
North Carolina
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
0050
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
0050
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
North Dakota
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
60
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JCBJHULNQ
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
2
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JCBJHULNQ
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
2● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Ohio
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
0070
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
0070
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●● ●
Oklahoma
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ●
● ●●
●
●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oregon
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
● ●● ● ● ●
Pennsylvania
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
● ●● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
● ●
●
Puerto Rico
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHULANLLNQNotreDame−Mobility
PSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC
YYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ●
● ●● ●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
200
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHULANLLNQNotreDame−Mobility
PSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC
YYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
012
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
● ●
●●
●
●●
Rhode Island
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
● ●
●●
●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
4050
60
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●● ●
South Carolina
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ●
●●
●
●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0015
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
0070
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0030
0050
0070
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
South Dakota
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
060
010
0014
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
060
010
0014
00
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●
● ●●
●
●
Tennessee
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●
● ●●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
0035
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
0035
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
● ●
●●
Texas
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
1400
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWSTHUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ●●
● ●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
0060
0010
000
1400
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWSTH
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ● ●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
0
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
●
Utah
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
010
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Vermont
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
23
45
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG
UAUCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ●
●
● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
01
23
45
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●
Virgin Islands
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JCBJHULANL
LNQNotreDame−MobilityPSI
UMass−MBUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
40
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JCBJHULANL
LNQNotreDame−MobilityPSI
UMass−MBUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
2030
40
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Virginia
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
● ● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
● ● ●●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
0020
0030
0040
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ● ●
●
●
●
● ●
Washington
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ● ●
●
●
●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
0035
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
015
0025
0035
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
West Virginia
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLAUMass−MB
UMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
040
060
080
0
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ● ●● ● ●
Wisconsin
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWUA
UCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ● ●● ● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
010
020
030
040
050
060
0
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0020
00
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
UAUCLAUMass−MBUMERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
050
010
0020
00
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
Wyoming
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
20
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG
UAUCLAUMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
05
1015
20
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedAuquanUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGeneva
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJCBJHUKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGUAUCLA
UMass−MBERDCUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
Jun−15 Jul−01 Jul−15 Aug−01 Aug−15 Sep−01
020
4060
8010
0
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals