Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016

R. JEROME HOLMAN, FSA, MAAA, CFA

Chicago Actuarial AssociationMarch 26, 2019

Presentation Disclaimer

Presentations are intended for educational purposes only and do not replace independent professional judgment. Statements of fact and opinions expressed are those of the participants individually and, unless expressly stated to the contrary, are not the opinion or position of the Society of Actuaries or its committees. The Society of Actuaries does not endorse or approve, and assumes no responsibility for, the content, accuracy or completeness of the information presented.

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Is It Getting Better or Worse Out on the Roads?

• Answer the question by reviewing fatal motor vehicle accident (MVA) experience from 1999-2016 by various perspectives• Overall trend

• Riding status

• Age

• Gender

• Alcohol impairment

• Seasonality

Motor Vehicle Accidents 1999-2015

4

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

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99

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Fata

l Acc

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Polic

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epo

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No

n-F

atal

Acc

iden

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Injury Property Fatal

MVA Deaths 1999-2017*

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

19

99

20

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20

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MV

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* 2017 reported experience included for reference but excluded in report

Attribution of Annual MVA Deaths

Average Annual Change* 1999-2005 2005-2011 2011-2016 1999-2016

Licensed Drivers 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

per Driver 0.6% -1.1% 0.6% 0.0%

Fatal Crashes per Million VMT -0.8% -4.2% 1.4% -1.4%

Fatalities per Crash -0.2% -0.3% 0.0% -0.2%

MVA Deaths 0.7% -4.8% 2.9% -0.6%

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* All averages in the table are determined geometrically. The average annual change in MVA Deaths within each period is the product of one plus each element’s growth rate minus one from the product of those factors, e.g. for 1999-2016 (1.010)*(1.000)*(.986)*(.998) - 1.000 = -0.006. Rounding may effect the calculation in other instances.

Change in MVA Deaths by Person Type

Average Annual Change* 1999-2005 2005-2011 2011-2016 1999-2016

Driver 1.4% -4.5% 2.5% -0.4%

Passenger -0.7% -7.6% 1.5% -2.6%

Pedestrian -0.2% -1.5% 6.1% 1.1%

Pedacyclist 0.7% -2.3% 4.3% 0.6%

Miscellaneous 1.7% -0.2% 4.4% 1.8%

All Types 0.7% -4.8% 2.9% -0.6%

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*All averages in the table are determined geometrically. The 1999-2016 annual change in

passenger deaths is derived as [(.9936)*(.9246)*(1.0155)](1/17) – 1 = -.026. Rounding may effect

the calculation in other instances.

Excess No Passengers to With Passengers MVA Fatal Accident Driver Involvement By Age Group

MVA Driver Death Rate by Age Group

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MVA Passenger Deaths by Age Group

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MVA Passenger Deaths by Driver vs. Passenger Age

1999 2016

• Passenger Deaths in 1999 were 10,279 vs. 6,595 in 2016.• 47% of reduced deaths from passengers within one age group of the driver and drivers under

age 30.• 17% of reduced deaths from passengers under age 16 with driver age 20 and over.

Non-Occupant MVA Deaths

1999 vs. 2016 Driver Mortality by Age and Gender

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10.0

20.0

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50.0

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-54

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-59

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-64

65

-69

70

-74

75

-79

80

-84

85

+

Dri

ver

Dea

ths

per

10

0,0

00

Dri

vers

Age Group

Female 1999 Female 2016

Male 1999 Male 2016

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

16

-19

20

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

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-44

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-49

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-54

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-59

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-69

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-74

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-79

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-84

85

+

Mal

e to

Fem

ale

Dri

ver

Dea

th R

ate

Age Group

1999 2016

1999 Average 2016 Average

Alcohol Impaired (AI) Accident Driver Deaths

o Over 1999-2016 AI driver deaths decreased 1.2% while non-AI Driver deaths increased by 0.8%.

o AI driver deaths were 31.4% and 27.5% of all driver deaths in 1999 and 2016, respectively.

o 65% of AI driver deaths from 1999-2016 were one car accidents.

o 11% of drivers killed in AI related accidents were not alcohol impaired.

o 85% of AI driver deaths are male.

o Except for ages 16-19 percentage of AI driver deaths to all deaths declines by age for males and females.

0.0%

5.0%

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10,000

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AI A

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Dri

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Dea

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AI Drivers Non-AI Drivers % AI Drivers

Seasonal Variation of MVA Driver Mortality Rates 1999-2016

75%80%85%90%95%

100%105%110%115%

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Seasonal Moraltiy Ratio VMT Normalized Seasonal Mortality Ratio

Conclusions

While not studying specific auto features or safety programs, experience corroborates with other research on the benefits of• Auto safety features

• Seat belts, air bags, ABS, stability control and backup camera during this era

• Graduated driver licensing• Large decrease of age 16-24 driver death rates

X But behavior remains a significant problem• Alcohol impairment (and drug impairment)• Distracted driving

Resources

• U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016: Report and supporting Excel data tables

https://www.soa.org/research-reports/2018/us-motor-vehicle-deaths/

• NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2017 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview DOT HS 812 603

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812603

• NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview DOT HS 812 456

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/812456

• FARS Query Facility and Data Downloadshttps://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-reporting-system-fars

• Contact info:• Jholman@soa.org

Change in MVA Driver Mortality Versus Change In Unemployment Rate

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%

-5.0%0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%

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Change in Driver Mortality Unemployment Rate Change