r . k. pachauri
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Climate Change and Sustainable Development. R . K. Pachauri. 26 June 2013 Dehradun, India. Climate change is unequivocal . Warming Of The Climate System Is Now Unequivocal. 125,000 years ago … The polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
R. K. Pachauri
26 June 2013Dehradun, India
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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Climate change is unequivocal
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125,000 years ago…
The polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period
… which led to reductions in polar ice volume and sea level rise of 4 to 6 .
Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.
Warming Of The Climate System Is Now Unequivocal
Source : IPCC
Observed Changes
Global average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemispheresnow cover
Source : IPCC
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Understanding climate change
Causes of change
Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004
Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
Source : IPCC
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Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004
Source : IPCC
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Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts
Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
Source: IPCC
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Forests: properties, goods and services
Forests provide:
commercial timber goods non-timber forest products, important for
subsistence livelihoods habitat provision for biodiversity >75% of globally usable freshwater
supplies come from forested catchments recreational, cultural and spiritual
benefits.
High deforestation and degradation is leading to about ¼ of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
But forests sequester the largest fraction of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks (about 220% of atmospheric carbon)
Forests are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems which makes
them attractive for climate change mitigation and agricultural uses.
Source: IPCC
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Projected impacts of climate change on forests
Many forests may be impacted detrimentally from strong warming and its effects on water availability.
Drought conditions in forests can cause mortality and reduced resilience
Likelihood of increased wildfire sizes and frequencies can be altered
Stress on trees that indirectly exacerbate disturbances (such as insects or fire).
These effects may lead to losses of accumulated carbon from the soil and biosphere to the atmosphere, thereby amplifying global warming
Source: IPCC
Role and limits of adaptation Societies have a long
record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals
Source : IPCC 10
But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effectsof climate change
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Adaptation and Mitigation
“Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts;
however, they can complement each other and
together can significantly reduce the risks of climate
change”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Source : IPCC
Characteristics of Stabilization Scenarios
Stabilizationlevel
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean temp. increase
(ºC)
Year CO2 needs to peak
Global sea level rise above pre- industrial
from thermal expansion(m)
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000-2015 0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000-2020 0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010-2030 0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020-2060 0.6 – 2.4
Source : IPCC
Post-TAR stabilization scenarios
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Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)
2030 TimeCurrent
GDP
GDP without mitigation
GDP with stringent mitigation
Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP
Source : IPCC
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Opportunities – Mitigation targets
Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030
Source : IPCC
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Forestry mitigation options
Forestry mitigation options include:
extending carbon retention in harvested wood products
product substitution producing biomass for bio-energy
Long-term sustainable forest management strategies include:
increasing forest carbon stocks, producing sustained yields of timber,
fiber or energy from the forest
Most mitigation activities have benefits and co-benefits accruing for many years to decades.
Forestry can make a very significant contribution to a low-cost global mitigation portfolio that provides synergies with adaptation and sustainable
development. Source : IPCC
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Realization of mitigation potential
Realization of the mitigation potential
requires:
institutional capacity
investment capital
technology RD and transfer
appropriate policies and incentives
international cooperation
In many regions, the institutional context and lack of political will to implement has resulted in the opportunity for potential forestry mitigation
activities to be lost.Source : IPCC
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What is REDD Plus?
REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradationUnderlying objectives: Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for
conserving forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of harvesting
them as well as the benefits from alternative land use and hence need to be compensated for the same
Costs involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services that benefit all
Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and indirect costs
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Forestry mitigation activities under the Kyoto Protocol
Forestry mitigation activities implemented under the Kyoto Protocol, (including CDM), have been limited.
Opportunities to increase activities include: simplifying procedures developing certainty over future
commitments reducing transaction costs building confidence and capacity
among potential buyers, investors and project participants
Source : IPCC
“We may utilize the gifts of Nature just as we choose but in her books, the debits are always equal to the credits”
- Mahatma Gandhi