r2s national sustainability screen 0211 v0.6

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    South Africas Johannesburg Stock Exchange [JSE]

    National Sustainability Screen

    General Interest | March 2010

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    Contents:- Overview- Economy Lens- Theme Lens- Sector Lens- Finance Sector Review: Banks- Solutions Requirements- Methods & Data

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    Overview

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    National Sustainability Screens

    Principal Objectives

    Private & Confidential

    Localization of Route2s (Sustained Value Management TM) measurement tool- US Input-Output model employed as economic baseline and refined with RSA energy technologyprofiles and sector wide emission intensities

    - Comprehend the research implications to fully localize

    Extension of Route2s (Sustained Value Management TM) measurement tool- Inclusion of human and social capital functional flows

    - Comprehend the research implications to extend

    Generate high level insights of sustainability issues within RSA- JSE is the largest exchange in Africa (16th largest globally), giving a strong indication of current

    sustainability issues / opportunities within RSA

    Employ findings as indicators of the sustainability challenges Route2 will facewithin RSAs corporate world (and begin the search for solutions)

    Provide initial screen and focus for our future investment activities

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    National Sustainability Screens

    RSA Universe

    Private & Confidential

    Sectors Representation(# Companies in Sector)

    Scale (Reported revenue /Estimated employment*)

    Agriculture 10 R217bn / 479k

    Construction 20 R129bn / 650k

    Finance 99 R1,183bn / 1,404k

    Manufacturing 55 R659bn / 1,652k

    Mining 52 R829bn / 407k

    Transport & Communications 32 R394bn / 531k

    Wholesale & Retail 40 R438bn / 2,089k

    TOTAL 308 R3,848bn / 7,212k

    NOTES: The screen excluded the contributions of Households and the Public Sector; *Estimated employment numbers

    for the entire industry NOT the listed entities included within the screen

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    National Sustainability Screens

    RSA Sustainability Themes

    Private & Confidential

    Capital Theme Driver(s)

    Natural Climate Change (-ve) Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Water Scarcity (-ve) Fresh Water Consumption

    Waste (-ve) Solid Waste Releases:landfilled, incinerated andradioactive

    Pollution (-ve) Toxic Releases: to Land, Air and Water (asclassified by the US EPA Toxic Release Inventory)

    Biodiversity (+ve) Ecosystem Service Provisions: derived fromland use (and non use)

    Human Health (-ve) / (+ve) Disease: economic cots of AIDS; abatementthrough education and treatment

    Knowhow (+ve) Employment: economic benefits of employment(beyond wage)

    Social Social Cohesion (-ve) / (+ve) Crime: economic cost of crime (impact on growth);abatement through policing

    NOTE: (-ve) refers to negative themes / external costs; (+ve) refers to positive themes / external benefits

    NOTE: Themes are not definitive, rather a representative sample. Please take the following analysis as a demonstration of the potential of

    the Route2 Sustainability model.

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Part 1

    Private & Confidential

    Total net externalities (upstream supply chains included)estimated to be R -750 bn on a revenue base of R 3,800 bn &profit base of R 311 bn1

    Estimated external costs of R -1,040 bn Estimated external benefits of R 290 bn

    4 significant sustainability themes revealed Pollution 72% of total net externalities Unemployment - 36% of total net externalities Water Scarcity 27% of total net externalities Waste - 26% of total net externalities

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Part 2

    Private & Confidential

    Pollution, the costliest theme, largely manifests in the early stages of supplychains, requiring deep supply chain engagement by corporations

    The first tier of supply chains is the source of the majority relative costs,suggesting corporations need to (and can) engage more actively with theirdirect suppliers

    Water Scarcity, Waste and Unemployment, are the themes whichcorporations appear to have the most direct control over (and thus the

    associated issues / opportunities)

    The total profit erosion of the 8 core themes is estimated to be -241 % ofthe 308 listed entities 2009 reported net income

    The estimated Sustained Profit (Profit net of net externalities) for the 308listed entities is R -440 bn. All sectors except for Finance and Wholesale /Retail generated negative Sustained Profit in 2009

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Part 3

    Private & Confidential

    Sector insights (distilled from exposure matrix)The Exposure Matrix positions the sectors quantified exposure to the core themes against the sectors current

    economic importance to identify current and future risks / opportunities for government, investors, debt providers

    and insurers

    Finance is the star sector Finance has a relatively low exposure to natural capital themes, high exposure to

    human capital benefits (derived from its large employee base) and significant

    (relatively) contribution to the economy (revenue, tax receipts and employment)

    Manufacturing carries the highest risk Manufacturing has the largest exposure to the natural capital themes (not offsetby the benefit of its significant employee base) Agriculture is heavily exposed to the natural capital themes but contributes less

    (relatively) to the RSA economy (and therefore sits in the bottom left quadrant)

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Theme Summary

    Private & Confidential

    Theme Externality (Benefit or Cost) Top 3 Sectors

    Human Capital:Unemployment

    R 271 bn(benefit)

    Manufacturing (27%) Wholesale / Retail (20%) Finance (19%)

    Natural Capital:Biodiversity

    R 9 bn(benefit)

    Agriculture (49%) Manufacturing (39%) Mining (5%)

    Human Capital:Disease (AIDS) R -4 bn(cost)

    Manufacturing (23%) Wholesale & Retail (16%) Finance (16%)

    Social Capital:Crime

    R -23 bn(cost)

    Finance (27%) Mining (22%) Manufacturing (22%)

    Natural Capital:ClimateChange

    R -56 bn(cost)

    Mining (51%) Manufacturing (22%) Transport & Communications (9%)

    Natural Capital:Waste

    R -197 bn(cost)

    Transport & Communications (26%) Manufacturing (26%) Waste(15%)

    Natural Capital:Water

    R -206 bn(cost)

    Agriculture (45%) Manufacturing (28%) Mining (21%)

    Natural Capital:Pollution

    R -544 bn(cost)

    Manufacturing (55%) Mining (21%) Agriculture (7%)

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Sector Summary

    Private & Confidential

    Sector Net Externalities / % of profit Top 3 Themes / % of profit

    Finance R -10 bn / -13 % Unemployment / 69% Waste / (41)% Pollutants / (24)%

    Wholesale & Retail R -10 bn / - 65 % Unemployment / 340% Pollutants / (195)% Waste / (145)%

    Construction R -11 bn / -176 %

    Pollutants / (330)% Unemployment / 328% Waste / (103)%

    Transport & Communications R -66 bn / -145 % Waste / (113)% Pollutants / (58)% Unemployment / 50%

    Agriculture R -121 bn / -392 % Water Scarcity / (298)% Pollutants / (128)% Unemployment / 54%

    Mining R -185 bn / -175 % Pollutants / (108)% Water Scarcity / (42)% Unemployment / 34%

    Manufacturing R -349 bn / -999% Pollutants / (852)% Unemployment / 208% Water Scarcity / (167)%

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    RSA Headline Insights

    Value Chain Summary

    Private & Confidential

    Sector Net Externalities / % of profit Top 2 Tiers / % of profit

    Finance R -10 bn / -13 % Direct / 27% Other Tiers / (23)%

    Wholesale & Retail R -10 bn / - 65 % Direct / 193% Other Tiers / (125)%

    Construction R -11 bn / -176 % Other Tiers / (199)% Direct / 160%

    Transport & Communications R -66 bn / -145 % Direct / (63)% Other Tiers / (33)%

    Agriculture R -121 bn / -392 % Direct / (193)% First / (116)x%

    Mining R -185 bn / -175 % First / (64)% Other / (51)%

    Manufacturing R -349 bn / -999% Other Tiers / (351)% Direct / (230)%

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    Economy Lens

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    Economy Lens

    Overview

    Private & Confidential

    This section is the consolidation of all 308 entities rolled up to drawinsights at a national level (excluding the direct impact of Governmentand Private Households)

    As with the entire SA Screen output, the focus is on the 8 majorsustainability themes (ranked by estimated financial impact within

    each capital good stock)

    The analysis is performed across the supply chain from the directactions of the relevant corporate to the actions of their suppliers (1sttier), their suppliers suppliers (2nd tier) and further up the chain (Othertiers)

    The implications of the listed entities actions (both their externalbenefits and external costs net externalities) is measured in Randimpact and often in the analysis made relative to the profit of thatsector or corporate entity.

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    Economy Lens

    Direct Impacts

    Private & Confidential

    -R102 590

    -R16 116

    -R74 223

    -R87 380

    R2 705

    -R2 116

    R148 732

    -R12 779

    WATER

    CLIMATE

    WASTE

    POLLUTANTS

    BIODIVERSITY

    AIDS

    UNEMPLOYMENT

    CRIME

    Net Direct

    Externalities

    R -144 bn

    Direct External

    Benefits

    R 154 bn

    Direct External

    Costs

    R -297bn

    Million Rand

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    -R205 841

    -R56 892

    -R196 558

    -R543 556

    R8 596

    -R3 751

    R271 030

    -R23 369

    WATER

    CLIMATE

    WASTE

    POLLUTANTS

    BIODIVERSITY

    AIDS

    UNEMPLOYMENT

    CRIME

    Economy Lens

    Total Supply Chain Impact

    Private & Confidential

    Net Indirect

    ExternalitiesR -750 bn

    Indirect External

    BenefitsR 290 bn

    Indirect External

    Costs

    R -1040 bn

    Million Rand

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    Economy Lens

    Theme Total Impact by Value Chain Origin [%]

    Private & Confidential

    -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Bio-diversity

    Climate Change

    Crime

    Disease

    Pollutants

    Unemployment

    Waste

    Water Scarcity

    Direct First Tier Second Tier Other Tiers

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    Economy Lens

    Theme Total Impact by Value Chain Origin [%]

    Private & Confidential

    -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Economy Lens

    Net Externalities as % of Profit

    Private & Confidential

    -250% -200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

    - 241 %

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    Economy Lens

    Sustained Profit Waterfall [Million R]

    Private & Confidential

    -R500 000

    -R400 000

    -R300 000

    -R200 000

    -R100 000

    R0

    R100 000

    R200 000

    R300 000

    R400 000

    FI

    NA

    N

    CE

    MI

    NI

    N

    G

    WH

    OL

    E

    SA

    LE

    &R

    E

    TA

    I

    L

    TR

    AN

    S

    PO

    RT

    &C

    O

    MM

    S

    MA

    NU

    F

    AC

    TU

    RI

    N

    G

    CO

    NS

    T

    RU

    CT

    IO

    N

    AG

    RI

    C

    UL

    TU

    RE

    TOTALR -440 bn

    FI

    NA

    N

    CE

    MI

    NI

    N

    G

    WH

    OL

    E

    SA

    LE

    &R

    E

    TA

    I

    L

    MA

    NU

    F

    AC

    TU

    R

    IN

    G

    CO

    NS

    T

    RU

    CT

    IO

    N

    AG

    RI

    C

    UL

    T

    URE

    TR

    AN

    S

    PO

    RT

    &C

    O

    MM

    S

    TOTALR311bn

    NetExternalities

    SustainedProfit

    NetIncome

    Million Rand

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    Economy Lens

    Sustained Profit Waterfall - Notes

    Private & Confidential

    Sustained Profit is a measure of the corporates profit / loss afteraccounting for its net externalities The chart shows how the corporates that make up the listed entity

    screen (bucketed by sector) build to the sum of traditional profit(reported annual operating income)

    and then how that traditional profit pictures falls to a sum sustainedprofit / loss number (again bucketed by sector) This analysis can be taken to a higher resolution i.e. corporates within a

    sector or business units within a corporate or products within a business

    unit

    This lens should be used as a high level indication of sustainability of theeconomy, a sector within that economy, a corporate within thatsector, a business unit within that corporate etc. or for benchmarkingpurposes (i.e. corporates within a sector)

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    Economy Lens

    Exposure Matrix

    Private & Confidential

    AGRICULTURERev: R217bn

    Tax: R8bnEmply: 479k

    Ext Costs: R121bn

    MANUFACTURINGRev: R659bn

    Tax: R9bnEmply: 1,652k

    Ext Costs: R349bn

    CONSTRUCTIONRev: R129bn

    Tax: R2bnEmply: 650k

    Ext Costs: R11bn

    TRANSPORT/COMMS

    Rev: R394bnTax: R12bn

    Emply: 531k

    Ext Costs: R66bn

    MININGRev: R829bn

    Tax: R34bnEmply: 407k

    Ext Costs: R185bn

    FINANCERev: R1,183bn

    Tax: R19bnEmply: 1,404k

    Ext Costs: R10bn

    WHOLESALE/RETAIL

    Rev: R438bnTax: R5bn

    Emply: 2,089k

    Ext Costs: R10bn

    Size of thebubbledenotes

    total netexternalities

    INCREASINGE

    XPOS

    URETOM

    AJOR

    THEME

    S

    INCREASING ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE(CONTRIBUTION TO GNP, TAX RECEIPTS, EMPLOYMENT)

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    Economy Lens

    Exposure Matrix - Notes

    Private & Confidential

    The matrix is used to identify issues / opportunities by showing the relativeimportance of a sector to RSA as measured by revenue, tax payments andemployment against the relative exposure of that sector to the 8 majorsustainability themes

    This lens can be used as a high level indicator of where the risks /opportunities lie (in this case for the economy) as external costs becomeinternalised or as a high level screen investment tool to identify sectors over /under exposed to certain themes (with the relevant x axis metric)

    Higher resolution can easily be applied revealing corporates within sectors,business units within corporates and products within business units

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    Theme Lens

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    Theme Lens

    Overview

    Private & Confidential

    This section reviews the 8 major sustainability themes (ranked by estimatedfinancial impact within each capital good stock) 5 themes emerge and charts each major industry sectors exposure level to the themes (in

    Rand and relative terms by sectors)

    The themes are ranked from the most beneficial theme to the mostdamaging theme

    A higher resolution lens can be applied to corporates within sectors,business units within corporates and products within business units

    and helps to identify where the largest exposures are an initial screen totarget more detailed analysis

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    Theme Lens

    Unemployment By Sector: R 271 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Manufacturing

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Finance

    Mining

    Transport &

    Comms

    Construction

    Agriculture

    - 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000

    Manufacturing27%

    Wholesale &Retail

    20%

    Finance19%

    Mining13%

    Transport &Comms

    8%

    Construction7%

    Agriculture6%

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    Theme Lens

    Biodiversity By Sector: R 9 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Mining

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Construction

    Finance

    Transport &

    Comms

    - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500

    Agriculture

    49%

    Manuing

    39%

    Mining

    5%

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    2%

    Construction2% Finance

    2%

    Transport &

    Comms

    1%

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    Theme Lens

    Disease (AIDS) By Sector: R -4 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Agriculture

    Construction

    Transport &

    Comms

    Mining

    Finance

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Manufacturing

    -1 000 - 800 - 600 - 400 - 200 -

    Agriculture

    -5%

    Construction

    -12%

    Transport &

    Comms

    -12%

    Mining

    -16%

    Finance

    -16%

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    -16%

    Manufacturing

    -23%

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    Theme Lens

    Crime By Sector: R -23bn

    Private & Confidential

    Construction

    Agriculture

    Transport &

    Comms

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Manufacturing

    Mining

    Finance

    -7 000 -6 000 -5 000 -4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 -

    Construction

    -4% Agriculture

    -5%

    Transport &

    Comms

    -10%

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    -12%

    Manufacturing-22%Mining-22%

    Finance

    -27%

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    Theme Lens

    Climate Change By Sector: R -56 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Construction

    Finance

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Agriculture

    Transport &

    Comms

    Manufacturing

    Mining

    -35 000 -30 000 -25 000 -20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 -

    Construction

    -1%

    Finance

    -4%Wholesale &

    Retail

    -5%

    Agriculture

    -6%

    Transport &

    Comms

    -9%

    Manufacturing

    -22%

    Mining

    -51%

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    Theme Lens

    Waste By Sector: R -197 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Agriculture

    Construction

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Mining

    Finance

    Manufacturing

    Transport &

    Comms

    -60 000 -50 000 -40 000 -30 000 -20 000 -10 000 -

    Agriculture-3%

    Construction

    -3%

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    -12%

    Mining

    -15%

    Finance

    -15%

    Manufacturin

    g-26%

    Transport &

    Comms

    -26%

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    Theme Lens

    Water (Scarcity) By Sector: R -206 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Construction

    Finance

    Transport &

    Comms

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    Agriculture

    -100 000 -80 000 -60 000 -40 000 -20 000 -

    Construction

    -1%Finance

    -3%

    Transport& Comms

    -2% Wholesale &

    Retail

    -2%

    Mining

    -21%

    Manufacturing-28%

    Agriculture

    -45%

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    Theme Lens

    Pollution By Sector: R -206 bn

    Private & Confidential

    Finance

    Construction

    Transport &

    Comms

    Wholesale &

    Retail

    Agriculture

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    -350 000 -300 000 -250 000 -200 000 -150 000 -100 000 -50 000 -

    Finance

    -3%

    Construction-4%

    Transport &

    Comms

    -5%

    Wholesale

    & Retail

    -7%

    Agriculture

    -7%

    Mining

    -21%

    Manufacturing

    -55%

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    Sector Lens

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    Sector Lens

    Overview

    Private & Confidential

    This section takes a look at the 7 macro industry sectors and charts exposure levels according to supply chain origin (from

    direct to the final tier) and to each of the 8 major sustainability themes

    Each sector also has the net externalities in Rbn and net externalities asa % of the relevant sectors net income

    The macro industry sectors are ranked from the sector with the lowestlevel of net external costs to the sector with the highest level of netexternal costs

    A higher resolution lens can be applied to corporates within sectors,business units within corporates and products within business units

    and helps to identify where the issues / opportunities lie within thesupply chain and the relative importance of the issues / opportunitiesboth to one another and relative to the traditional financial measure

    (profit) this initial screen can then be used to target more detailed

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    Sector Lens

    Finance: R -10 bn / -13%

    Private & Confidential

    -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Wholesale / Retail: R -10 bn / -65%

    Private & Confidential

    -500% -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Construction: R -11 bn / -176%

    Private & Confidential

    -600% -500% -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Transport & Communications: R -66 bn / -145%

    Private & Confidential

    -250% -200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Agriculture: R -121 bn / -392%

    Private & Confidential

    -500% -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Mining: R -185 bn / -178%

    Private & Confidential

    -250% -200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Sector Lens

    Manufacturing: R -349 bn / -999%

    Private & Confidential

    -1400% -1200% -1000% -800% -600% -400% -200% 0% 200% 400%

    Direct

    First Tier

    Second Tier

    Other Tiers

    Grand Total

    Bio-diversity Climate Change Crime Disease Pollutants Unemployment Waste Water Scarcity

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    Finance Sector Review: Loan Books

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    Finance Sector Review

    RSAs Big 4 Loan Books

    Private & Confidential

    This section takes a look at the loan books of the big 4 RSA banks toevaluate, at the highest level, the impact of their advances with respect to

    the 8 major sustainability themes

    The analysis is based on the reported advances to the relevant sectors. Wehave then assumed that 1 rand advanced, generates 1 rand of revenue

    within that sector and used that to calculate the net externalities of bankadvances in 2009

    Clearly, the assumption of a 1 rand advanced to 1 rand revenue generationis crude and further employing average sector net externalities is also crude,but as throughout this analysis, more granular disclosure and / or access to

    the loan books is required to refine the outputs

    There are a number of usages of this lens risk management (to assess a corporates ability to service loans) loan pricing (which accounts for the different risk profile) understand sustainability

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    Finance Sector Review

    Total Loan Books

    Private & Confidential

    -1000 000

    -800 000

    -600 000

    -400 000

    -200 000

    -ABSA FIRST NED STANDARD

    Corporate

    ConsumerMillion Rand

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    Finance Sector Review

    Consumer Loan Books: Net Externalities [R m]

    Private & Confidential

    Million Rand

    -200 000

    -150 000

    -100 000

    -50 000

    -ABSA GROUP FIRST BANK NEDBANK STANDARD BANK

    Food & Beverage

    Agricultural products

    Fuel

    Water

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    Finance Sector Review

    Corporate Loan Books: Net Externalities [R m]

    Private & Confidential

    Million Rand

    Transport

    Agricultural products

    Construction

    Manufacturing

    -700 000

    -600 000

    -500 000

    -400 000

    -300 000

    -200 000

    -100 000

    -ABSA FIRST NED STANDARD

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    AgricultureManufacturing

    TransportElectricity

    ConstructionGovernment

    MiningOther

    ServicesRetailers

    FinanceBanks

    Wholesale

    Finance Sector Review

    Retail Bank Exposure Analysis

    Private & Confidential

    Standard

    Bank

    Ned

    Bank

    ABSA

    Bank

    First

    Bank

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    Finance Sector Review

    Normalized Corporate Loan Book

    [Net Externalities per Rand Advanced]

    Private & Confidential

    -3,10

    -4,84

    -1,76

    -1,41

    ABSA FIRST NED STANDARD

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    Solutions Requirement Table

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    Solutions Requirement Table

    Overview

    Private & Confidential

    Given that Route2 is focused on helping corporates address theirsustainability issues and realize their sustainability opportunities, it is vital we

    are in position to identify, propose and help implement solutions. Thestarting point is identifying the significant issues / opportunities and

    subsequently cost effective solutions

    The following tables sets out the economic value of the sector / themecombination together with the exposure level as measured by netexternalities

    The table is sorted by exposure levels

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    Solutions Requirement Table

    Corporate Level Solutions

    Private & Confidential

    SECTOR / THEME Exposure (Rm Net Extern.) Economic Score

    POLLUTANTS_Manufacturing 297 419 940 650

    POLLUTANTS_Mining 112 466 929 541

    WATER SCARCITY_Agriculture 91 750 303 876

    WATER SCARCITY_Manufacturing 58 246 940 650

    WASTE_Transport & Comms 51 442 493 833

    WASTE_Manufacturing 50 589 940 650WATER SCARCITY_Mining 43 550 929 541

    POLLUTANTS_Agriculture 39 395 303 876

    POLLUTANTS_Wholesale & Retail 30 510 787 813

    WASTE_Finance 30 380 1 433 864

    WASTE_Mining 29 766 929 541

    CLIMATE CHANGE_Mining 29 158 929 541

    POLLUTANTS_Transport & Comms 26 372 493 833

    WASTE_Wholesale & Retail 22 790 787 813POLLUTANTS_Construction 19 740 238 242

    POLLUTANTS_Finance 17 654 1 433 864

    CLIMATE CHANGE_Manufacturing 12 528 940 650

    CRIME_Finance 6 304 1 433 864

    WASTE_Construction 6 185 238 242

    WASTE_Agriculture 5 407 303 876

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    Methods & Data

    M h d & D

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    Methods & Data

    Overview

    Private & Confidential

    Figure 1 illustrates the concepts of indirect upstream (supply chain)and indirect downstream (product use and disposal) impacts

    (negative and positive). Increasingly companies need to understandand help manage the risks beyond their immediate boundaries ofoperation (e.g. EU legislation holding electrical product manufacturersresponsible for final disposal)

    Figure 2 depicts the architecture of the integrated models employedto quantify the 4 capital direct and indirect functional flows ofcompany activities, at both process and product levels

    Figure 3 details the various valuation techniques employed tomonetize the functional flows emanating from the 4 capitals.Monetization enables relative weighting of functional flows andimportantly allows integration with finance data)

    Table 4 lists the data and sources employed in the preceding analysis

    1 V l Ch i & Lif C l

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    1. Value Chains & Life Cycles

    Private & Confidential

    e.g.,Sainsburys

    Suppliers Customers

    e.g. indirectupstream

    sustainability

    exposures of

    supplied inputs

    e.g. Indirectdownstream

    sustainability

    exposures of

    product use & disposal

    e.g. directsustainability

    exposures of

    retail operations

    Mixed Input-OutputAnalysis

    [MIOA]

    Life-CycleAnalysis

    [LCA]

    ChingfordsLonaRiverside

    Material & Energy FlowsAnalysis

    [MEFA]

    Integrated Hybrid Models

    2 I t t d H b id M d l

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    2. Integrated Hybrid Model

    Private & Confidential

    National

    Economic

    Input-Output[IO] Table

    Product LifeCycle

    Inventory[LCI] Tables

    Company

    Data

    OtherRegions

    EconomicInput-OutputTables (e.g.

    China)

    Product

    System

    DownstreamCut Offs

    National

    Exports / OtherRegion Imports

    Product

    System

    Upstream Cut

    Offs

    NationalImports / Other

    Region Exports

    Non Market Factor Inputs (e.g. Greenhouse Gas Assimilation)

    Non Market Factor Weightings (e.g. Monetary Values)

    NonMarketFactorOu

    tputs(e.g.SoilRestoration)

    NonMarketFactorWeig

    htings(e.g.MonetaryValues)

    Inputs

    Model Components

    IO Table: National mixed

    (financial and physical)

    commodity by commodity,

    mitigation technology explicit,input-output model

    Product LCI Tables: Life

    Cycle Inventory [LCI] data

    sets (e.g. EcoInvent, US

    DoE LCI databases).

    Ecosystem

    Dynamics

    Company Data: Company

    disclosures - concerning

    supplier expenditures,

    product recipes and

    environmental flows

    IO Table: Other national

    mixed (Financial and

    Physical) IO models (toenable true multi regional

    modeling)

    Environmental (in) flows of

    commodity groups and specific

    process (made explicit by the LCI

    tables)

    Monetary values for

    environmental flows

    Environmental

    (out) flows of

    commodity groups

    and specific

    process (madeexplicit by the LCI

    tables)

    Monetary

    values for

    environmental

    flows

    3 V l ti T h i

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    3. Valuation Techniques

    Private & Confidential

    Hedonic Pricing

    Labor Property

    Avertive Behavior

    Cost of Illness /Cost to Production

    Travel Cost

    Abatement Cost

    Remediation Cost

    Replacement Cost

    Contingent Valuation

    Conjoint Analysis

    (Choice Modeling)

    Willingness to Pay(WTP)

    Willingness toAccept (WTA)

    ChoiceExperiment

    ContingentRanking

    Contingent Rating

    PairedComparisons

    Revea

    ledPreferenceMet

    hods(IndirectMetho

    ds)

    DoseResponseF

    unctions(DRF)

    Stat

    edPreferenceMeth

    ods(DirectMethods)

    Value Transfer

    4 D t & I f ti S

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    4. Data & Information Sources

    Data Source

    1. JSE listed entities (#308) / 5 year financial data Bloomberg

    2. Annual financial & sustainability reports Company websites

    3. South African Macro Statistics Statistics South Africa

    4. External Cost & Benefit Values Synthesis of publishedresearch

    5. 4 Capital Flow Measurement Route2 proprietary integratedhybrid models

    6. Exposure Analysis Combination of 1-5 / Route2Sustained Value ManagementTM framework

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    Thank you