race reaction: voter responses to tea party messages in economically stressed communities in the...

8/7/2019 Race Reaction: Voter Responses to Tea Party Messages in Economically Stressed Communities in the 2010 Midterm

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R A C E R E A C T I O N V O T E R R E S P O N S E S T O T E A P A R T Y M E S S A G E S I N

E C O N O M I C A L L Y - S T R E S S E D C O M M U N I T I E S

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

For more information, contact:

Mr. Anthony Giancatarino

The Center for Social Inclusion

New York, NY 10038

[email protected]

(212) 248-2785 x1451


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Executive SummaryThe mid-term elections left Democrats in the dust and Republicans claiming a mandate on shrinking

government and repealing health care reform; but after the elections a more complicated picture is

emerging as we analyze election results. Exit polls have shown voters to be divided on specific

policies of the Obama Administration, like stimulus and health care. And some analysts have

pointed out that some Republicans ran and won with few specific policy proposals. To shed more

light on what the results of the mid-term elections suggest for policymakers, the Center for Social

Inclusion examined economic insecurity and racial and ethnic demographics where Tea Party

candidates both won and lost. CSIs research suggests that Tea Party successes have been driven

by a combination of economic insecurity and race. Our analysis shows that in congressionaldistricts with economic insecurity, Tea Party candidates won 9 of 10 races where the White

population is above 60%, while losing 7 of 10 races where the population of color is above 40%. Yet,

in districts with higher economic security, Tea Party candidates failed in all but three races

incumbents representing White populations above 70%.Center for Social Inclusion analyzed demographic data in 40 congressional districts with the worst

foreclosure rates and 20 congressional districts with the greatest decrease in foreclosures as a

measure of economic stability. CSIs analysis shows that in congressional districts facing economic

stress, the Tea Party used economic insecurity and growing racial fears to win in majority-White

districts. Importantly, congressional districts notin foreclosure distress that were mostly White didnottend to support tea party candidates. Race was correlated with Tea Party victory, but not class.

Districts with large numbers of people of color and high foreclosure rates saw few Tea Party

candidate victories.The Tea Partys strategy of dividing voters along subtle, and not so subtle, references to race and

ethnicity works in White economically distressed communities, but not necessarily White

economically healthy communities or communities with sizable populations of color. This suggests

that strategies, which address race and economic opportunity, will be critical to policymakers

and advocates. It does not necessarily suggest that the policies of the administration itself are to

blame for voter reactions. Therefore, CSI recommends communities and policymakers mustconfront this negative use of race as a wedge in political debate by creating messages that reach

people personally, positively engage them on the impacts policies have on communities of color,

and offer solutions that can benefit all people. Within this frame, CSI has identified a growing

opportunity for cross-race alliance building that will reject the Rights attempts at dividing a nation

through empty policy discussions filled with racialized messaging.


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Findings from the 40 congressional districts with the worst or largest increase in foreclosures: In 21 of the 40 districts, the Tea Party ran candidates in the primary or general election,

winning a total of 11 general election races.

The Tea Party won 7 of the 8 Districts that flipped from Democratic to Republicancontrol, 6 of these 7 victories had White populations greater than 60%.

Overall, 10 of the 11 Tea Party candidates elected won in districts with a Whitepopulation greater than 60%.

Among the 10 congressional districts where the Tea Party failed to win, 7 are districtswith populations of color greater than 40%.

Poverty seems less relevant than race and foreclosure rates. In the 40 districts mostimpacted by foreclosures, districts with lower median household incomes were no more

likely than their wealthier counterparts to vote for the Tea Party.

Findings from the 20 congressional districts with the greatest decrease in foreclosures: In 16 of the 20 districts, the Tea Party ran candidates in the primary or general election,

winning 3 general election races. All 3 Tea Party victories were by incumbents who

currently belong to the Tea Party Caucus and represent districts with a White population

greater than 70%.

10 of the 13 Tea Party losses came in districts with a White population greater than 60%,while the other 3 defeats occurred in districts with populations of color above 40%.

Similar to the 40 districts with the worst foreclosure rates, median household incomedid not play a significant role in the 20 districts with the largest decrease in foreclosures .

Racial Demographic Analysis

In congressional districts with high economic insecurity the Tea Party candidate won where

Whites are overwhelmingly the majority population.

CSI found a statistically significant correlation between race and Tea Party victories and defeats.

Below, the map highlights the Southwest region of the country, where 13 of the top 20 Foreclosed

Congressional Districts are located.


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The most active Tea Party congressional challenges occurred in Arizona and Nevada, both of which

were extremely hard-hit by the foreclosure crisis. Nevada ranks the worst in the country overall as 1

in every 69 properties are in foreclosure, while Arizona ranks 4th with 1 in 159 properties in

foreclosure. The results are staggering. Nevadas 3rd District flipped from Democratic to Tea Party

control, and three Tea Party candidates won in seats in Arizona. As the map shows, these districts

(represented in red with cross-hatches) all have White populations above 60%. In contrast, in

districts where Democratic incumbents defeated Tea Party challengers (light blue Districts), the

White population is less than 50% (small purple dots).


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IONWhen analyzing congressional districts with the largest decline in foreclosures, the results are

strikingly different. The three Tea Party candidates that were victorious did win in congressional

districts with White populations above 70%; however 10 of the 13 Tea Party candidate losses were

also in congressional districts with White populations above 60%. In the only three districts with

populations of color above 40%, the Tea Party lost. It appears that in districts where economic

insecurity is not high, districts with majority White populations are not overly jumping at Tea Party

messages. These results suggest that when Whites who live in racially isolated districts face

economic insecurity, they are more responsive to racial messages that exploit economic fears and

implicit racial biases.

Income AnalysisIn the congressional districts analyzed, median household incomeboth of Whites and of people

of colorvaried considerably. However, districts with lower median household incomes were no

more likely than their wealthier counterparts to vote for Tea Party candidates.Acknowledging that many of these districts are facing significant economic concerns, one would

expect to find that voters would respond based on economic standing. However, CSIs analysis finds

no statistically significant correlation that explicitly links economic situations to electoral outcomes.

Wealthy, middle-income, and poorer districts varied voting decisions. Unlike the strong impact that

race appeared to play in these heavily foreclosure-impacted districts, White income and povertyrates did not seem to significantly impact the electoral success of Tea Party candidates. For more

details please see the appendix of the report.

Messaging Analysis

CSI research has shown that race is increasingly used as a wedge, resulting in a decrease in white

support for investments that even they would benefit from.

The correlation between majority-White districts experiencing economic angst and overwhelming

support for Tea Party candidates elevates the role that race plays in our policy debates and political

behavior. As we have seen in recent policy debates on critical public investments like healthcare andfinancial reform, race is increasingly used to wedge white support for investments that even they

would benefit from. For example, the fear that illegal aliens would benefit from healthcare reform

wedged White support for the bill, despite the fact that the number one cause of bankruptcy for

middle-class Americans is medical debt.


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The dominant rhetoric Tea Party candidates and activists used in the mid-term elections argued forthe shrinking role of government, public spending, and lowering taxes. Images of people of color

and coded words such as welfare queen illegal alien and freeloader have all been used to

convince White voters that it is those people unfairly benefiting from government spending. These

very voters face unemployment, foreclosure, and crises in healthcare, needing the very public

investment that they oppose. Given the high correlation between White-majority districts,

economic distress, and the success of Tea Party candidates in these districts, it appears that the race

wedge has been highly effectively at convincing many White voters to support candidates who

express extreme anti-government sentiments and, in some instances, overt racism.Not only were congressional districts with populations of color above 40% more likely to reject TeaParty candidates, they also did so even amidst the way that race was used as a wedge. In districts

where the Tea Party was victorious, race played a significant role in political messages that were

both explicit and symbolic. The chart below highlights examples of messages that used race as a

wedge during the campaign, by district.Congressional District Candidate Message Elected

California 11th HarmerAbolish public schools and return the

country to "the way things worked

through the first century of American

nationhood"No

Arizona 6th Franks He has no place in any station ofgovernment and we need to realize thathe [Obama] is an enemy of humanity. Yes

Nevada - Senate Angle Black is the color of evil. No

Iowa 5th KingBut the President has demonstrated that

he has a default mechanism in him that

breaks down the side of race - on the side

that favors the black person.Yes

Minnesota 6th Bachmann

So, what you have to do, is keep faith withthe people that are already in the system, that

don't have any other options, we have to keep

faith with them. But basically what we have todo is wean everybody else off. And wean

everybody off because we have to take those

unfunded net liabilities off our bank sheet, we

can't do it.

Yes


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ConclusionAfter analyzing the 2010 electoral results in the 40 Districts most affected by foreclosures, it is clear

that race coupled with economic pain may have played a significant role in Tea Party candidate

elections. Though voters are split on issues such as healthcare reform and job creation, our analysis

suggests that the Right is manipulating white voters insecurities around economic well-being.

Instead of demanding a smarter and more responsive role for government, many swing white voters

are electing candidates who promise to shrink government. As this is unchallenged, the policy

discourse in this country has failed to thoroughly debate solutions to our problems and has stoked

intolerance and even overt racism.

RecommendationsCSI recommends that communities, advocates, and policymakers need to confront the Rights use

of race as a wedge to support meaningful and informed policy discussions.

CSI is currently engaged in communications testing, which tracks how race is used as a wedge in the

public discourse on public investment and action (such as healthcare and foreclosures) and tests

messages that confront that wedge. Results show that the Right is winning the dialogue not

through policy debates but through racialized messages that pit Americans against each other.

However, in a series of tests around messaging, CSI finds messages that proactively confront the

race wedge are more effective at opening up meaningful dialogue with white audiences than those

that avoid reference to race. CSI, with Westen Strategies, LLC, tested Race-explicit messages head-to-head against anti-government messages that used racial cues and pit Americans against each

other. The race explicit messages outperformed the conservative messages by significant margins.

Advocates should use the following approach to craft effective messages that attack the race

wedge:Formula Race Explicit Subprime message Race Explicit Healthcare message

1) Describe problem

universally and inemotional termsOver six million hard working

Americans have lost their jobs, andmillions more have had their homes and

dreams foreclosedWere all one tumor away from financial

disaster


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2) Explain sharedfate in racially-

explicit terms

The pain of losing your home doesntcome in different colors. It feels the

same whether youre white or black,

Hispanic or AsianThe health care problem facingAmericans cuts across class, race, and

ethnicity. White men are losing their jobs

in record numbers, and black and Latino

Americans tend to have lower-paying jobsand cant afford insurance no matter hard

they work3) Take on the race

wedge and reframe

enemies and victimsBut instead of blaming the bankers,

some people want us to blame the

borrowers [image of African American

homeowners].It wasnt these guys, whojust tripled our credit card interest rates

and paid themselves record bonuses outof our tax dollars

This isnt about illegal immigrants, its

about American citizens. It isnt about

welfare, its about people who work for a

living and still cant afford insuranceor

who lost their insurance when they lost

their job4) Present universalsolution in

emotional terms

We need tough new regulations toprevent this from ever happening again.

If banks and credit cards companies

have something to say they shouldnt

be allowed to say it in fine print or to

triple our interest rates without notice.

It shouldnt be up to insurance companiesto decide who to cover, what to cover, and

how much to charge for it

CSI is currently conducting another round of communications testing to support the fields ability to

confront the use of race as a wedge and will share these results in the coming months.CSI strongly advocates for more engagement with communities of color in policy, economic, and

social arenas.


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AppendixDemographics of Selected Congressional Districts with Most Foreclosures an Tea Party Outcomes

Demographics of Selected Congressional Districts with Worst and Best Changes in Foreclosure Rates and

Tea Party Outcomes

DistrictForeclosures-September

2010(Estimates)

2008Foreclosures/

Household2010

Foreclosures/Household

112Congress

PersonParty Tea Party

Victory White Black Latino Asian DistrictMHI WhiteMHINevada 3 2,100 4.45% 5.18% Heck R Yes 60.18% 6.50% 21.28% 8.42% $62,725 $66,466Nevada 1 12,000 3.23% 3.48% Berkley D No 43.15% 12.37% 35.06% 5.42% $51,100 $58,010Arizona 5 3,000 0.92% 1.71% Mitchell D No 71.39% 3.24% 16.84% 4.35% $62,733 $67,029Arizona 7 1,685 1.31% 1.70% Grijalva D No 33.96% 3.35% 54.62% 1.68% $40,179 $58,639llinois 14 1,400 0.83% 1.62% Hultgren R Yes 68.52% 4.75% 22.51% 2.94% $67,504 $73,950Illinois 8 1,781 0.52% 1.55% Walsh* R Yes 71.39% 3.83% 15.86% 7.37% $75,552 $79,641Arizona 1 917 0.70% 1.47% Gosar R Yes 57.70% 18.80% 1.40% 2.10% $45,198 $45,861

District % Change 112thCongressPerson Party

Tea PartyCandidate

Elected White Black Latino AsianDistrict

MHI WhiteMHIKansas 3 3627% Yoder R Yes 60% 34% 2% 2% $63,427 $68,698

Alabama 4 2160% Aderholt R Yes 88% 5% 5% - $37,405 $39,378Virginia 5 1500% Hurt R No 72% 23% 2% 1% $47,727 $43,125

Louisiana 3 1400% Landry R Yes 77% 8% 9% 3% $52,555 $44,887Virginia 9 1000% Griffith R Yes 92% 4% 1% 1% $36,453 $36,824

Minnesota 6 956% Bachmann R Yes 92% 2% 2% 3% $61,074 $70,764onnecticut 3 -91% DeLauro D No 71% 12% 4% 11% $62,306 $67,378

Iowa 5 -73% King R Yes 91% 1% 1% 5% $45,616 $46,238California 11 -67% McNerney R No 53% 5% 13% 25% $79,322 $87,258

Florida 19 -65% Deutch D No 67% 10% 3% 18% $51,018 $51,512California 18 -63% Cadoza D No 32% 6% 9% 50% $43,675 $48,213


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The Center for Social Inclusion (CSI) is a national policy advocacy organization. CSIs mission is to build a

fair and just society by dismantling structural racism, which undermines opportunities for all of us.

CSI partners with communities of color and other allies to build a strong multi-racial movement for new

policy directions that create equity and opportunity.

The Center for Social Inclusion

65 Broadway, Suite 1800 New York, NY 10006

(212) 248-2785

www.centerforsocialinclusion.org

Copyright November 2010 by The Center for Social Inclusion

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic

or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without the

permission of the Center for Social Inclusion

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