racing flow incorporated plod boy bonus plays january 1...

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RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1, 2011 January 31, 2011 January 31, 2011 FAIR GROUNDS Race 6 3 Ember Glowing (8-1): has recorded back to back vs Plod Upgrades, or DVP. Two back she closed into a -157 Flow and last out was in a hopeless position far behind a very speed favoring -187 Flow. Won three back with a slightly favorable +70 Flow, while the win four back, w/ a BL12 of 24!, came under neutral bias and flow. SCRATCHED from 'ott' event SUBSTITUTE PLAY Race 8 9 True Brew (8-1): Let's stretch the boundaries a bit with this one, looking

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Page 1: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

RACING FLOW INCORPORATED

Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1, 2011 – January 31, 2011

January 31, 2011

FAIR GROUNDS

Race 6

3 Ember Glowing (8-1): has recorded back to back vs Plod Upgrades, or

DVP. Two back she closed into a -157 Flow and last out was in a hopeless

position far behind a very speed favoring -187 Flow. Won three back with a

slightly favorable +70 Flow, while the win four back, w/ a BL12 of 24!, came

under neutral bias and flow.

SCRATCHED from 'ott' event

SUBSTITUTE PLAY

Race 8

9 True Brew (8-1): Let's stretch the boundaries a bit with this one, looking

Page 2: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

to end the month with a bang. Last out chased a modest Plod -114 and a wire

to wire winner, which, while worthy of a slight upgrade, is uninspiring when

standing alone. A look down the PPs reveals an upgrade effort in the slop last

January and an Upgraded lifetime best effort on FG fast dirt in December 2009.

Goes turf to dirt just like she did that day.

2nd at 11-1

The 'drift and dance' move in the lane was clearly more costly than the

expected wide run. Be not bitter, as 'Brew' receives toasts and accolades

for completing the 'repeat of history' angle I so deftly pointed out......

-pbp

01/31/2011

Second PBBP added at 12:55pm ET

January 30, 2011

OAKLAWN

Race 2

2 Stormy Destin (6-1): receives modest upgrade for the last when in chasing

mode behind the w-w winner of a Plod -113 on a track that was kind to speed.

Drops for the third start of this new form cycle following a three yr gap.

Last at 3-1

Slow start, rushed to lead, stopped

TURFWAY

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Race 8

6 Stage Success (4-1): Upgrade the last when closing strongly despite an

Important Speed Biased -179 track and a modest -81 Flow (slightly speed

favoring). Note that this big run into the teeth of the Plod brought him along

side the winner, who had plenty left to 'accelerate' away. Not a 'hang job' by

any means as hangers typically fail with perfect trips. Owns modest upgrade

three back and did register oddly impressive 9f move at Keeneland against

better. Gelding is 1 for 17 for a reason - timing is everything.

3rd at 6-1

-plod boy phil

01/30/2011

12:00pm ET

January 29, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 9

5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod -179 Win (VPW)

last out in the G3 My Charmer. Her win two back on the turf was vs a Plod -

123 and the 9.5f loss at AP was a hopeless chasing effort behind a Plod -241!

2nd at 2-1

'Circled 5 wide' - very costly.

Page 4: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Proved to be a very bad beat for Racing Flow™ subscribers, as Tackleberry

($56.60), one of two Upgrades on the Upgrades & Downgrades Report,

took them all the way one race later in the Sunshine Millions Classic.

The 'probable 5-3 DD' was a robust $243. Note that our other upgrade, Dream

Maestro, finished 3rd at 57-1.

-pbp

01/29/2011

9:25am ET

January 28, 2011

OAKLAWN

Race 4 5 Saratoga Seven (7/2): upgrade the last, his first start in two months, when making a 'Quick to' move on a severely Closer Biased

+219 track - that winner's BL12 was nearly 12 to this one's 6. Two back at CD, he was hopelessly left behind a Plod -145 on a track that was

modestly speed favoring (-131).

3rd at 5/2

Race 6 7 Lookslikelove (4-1): recorded a modest 'vs' Win when closing from

Page 5: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

5 back (BL12) despite a Plod -120 on an importantly Speed Biased -179

track. Her debut was an upgraded vs Plod -140 effort. Cheap but talented filly steps up to face winners today in first try on dirt.

Outrun from the start at 6-1

-pbp

01/28/2011

1:05pm ET

January 27, 2011

OAKLAWN

Race 6

11 Thunder and Belle (8-1): upgrade the last when 'Quick to Zip' +197 -

that winner's BL12 was almost 17. Note that 'Thunder' was closer than the

winner at the 1st two calls combined, made an early move to the lead before

being run down by a deeper closer. Consider with 7 Pyote who recorded a

modest 'vs Plod Win' when closing from 4 lengths back (BL12) despite a Plod -

182. That victory came on the heels of an upgraded vs Plod effort behind a w-

w winner.

2nd at 9-1

Pyote had a very eventful trip, finishing well despite checking severely early.

-plod boy phil

01/27/2011

8:55am ET

Page 6: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

January 26, 2011

Back on Thursday.

-pbp

01/26/2011

12:25pm ET

January 24, 2011

FAIRGROUNDS

Race 9

13 She's Saariffic (3-1): upgrade the vs Zip +163 effort in last when head

and head with the leader for a half - that race winner's BL12 was 18! Two

back, chased a wire to wire winner on a speed favoring -145 track.

$8.60 WINNER

Completed a $231.90 Pick 3 payout started by the Extreme Race Report

winner from Race 7 .

14 Heritage Bay (7/2): upgrade the last when a bit too close to a Zip +156 -

that winner's BL12 was 6. Also made modest 'Qt' move two back while more

forwardly placed than the winner at the first two calls on a track that was

Biased towrds closers (+166) - that winners BL12 was 8.2

2nd

The 13-14 Exacta, posted here more than three hours before post time,

Page 7: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

returned $14.20

pbp

01/24/2011

2:30pm ET

January 23, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 9

4 Caixa Eletronica (8-1): faced a near impossible task last out when chasing

G3 company behind a Plod -177 on an important Speed Biased -189 track !

Two back against G2 company, he was again behind a speed favoring Flow and

an important speed Bias. Faces a softer field today and should get a more

favorable scenario.

$15.40 WINNER

Exited a Racing Flow™ Extreme Races in back to back starts, yet still

aired at a robust mutuel !

OAKLAWN

Race 1

3 Early M (9/2): pressed the pace while wide last out on an important Closer

Biased +166 track - note that she made the lead before being run down from

behind. Returns to the scene of her strong maiden win when dueling for the

lead and drawing clear despite a +130 Flow on a closer friendly surface.

Consider with the 6 Swift Action who receives modest upgrades for each of

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her last three races.

2nd at 7/2

Swift Action 3rd at 9/5

TURFWAY

Race 8

4 Gypsy Wind (4-1): recorded a vs Plod -130 Win with a BL12 of nearly 10 in

her racing debut - impressive. Lines up to face winners today in a race with

plenty of speed signed on. Regular readers of this page over the last two years

know that the 'VPW' is Racing Flows™ favorite angle. For an example of the vs

Plod Winner, see Gran Estreno ($8.40) who won yesterday's Colonel

Bradley at the Fair Grounds. His DRF Formulator PPs are posted below.

Outrun at 5/2.

-plod boy phil

01/23/2011

10:00am ET

Gran Estreno - FG R9 01/22/2011

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January 22, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 10

1 Mr. Monarch (12-1): recorded a solid vs Plod -186 Win with a BL12 of 4.2

in his debut despite troubled start. Does not appear to be the sharpest tool in

the shed - see replay - but looks talented enough to project a major

improvement today in this 'off the turf' event.

Outrun from the start at 12-1

-pbp

01/22/2011

11:55AM ET

January 21, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 8

5 Mirimachi Babe (6-1): receives strong Upgrade for the last when

attempting to close into a Plod - 322! - no surprise that the winner of that

event went wire to wire. She has also recorded a modest upgrade two back (vs

Page 10: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Plod -105 w/ trouble) and first showed her ability in the debut when flying

home despite a Plod -240! Talented filly puts it all together today.

Outrun at 6-1 in sloppy OTT event

-pbp

01/21/2011

10:20am ET

January 20, 2011

AQUEDUCT

Race 3 5 Lloydobler (10-1): upgrade the last when closing wide despite a Plod -156 (speed favoring). Two back was vs a Severely Closer Biased

surface and three back, in his first since May, he hopelessly chased a Plod -188. Makes 2nd start at the level and looks ready for his best.

3rd at 15-1

Beaten just over a length

GULFSTREAM

Page 11: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Race 4 6 Fly South (8-1): was too close and made the lead to early - aka 'Quick to' - on a severely Closer Biased +200 track. That winner's BL12

was 6.2 while the 3rd place finisher, Hyphen, benefitted from the Bias to close from far back and is thus a downgrade today.

$5.00 Winner

Works out to $1 per length while easily defeating Hyphen. Nobody does Track Bias like Racing Flow™

-plod boy phil

01/20/2011

10:56am ET

January 19, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 9

10 Intercoastal (6-1): upgrade his last when too close and making an early

move towards the lead - aka 'Quick to Zip' - vs a +219! Flow. That winner's

BL12 was nearly 22.

Page 12: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Scratched

-plod boy phil

01/19/2011

7:45am ET

January 16, 2011

SANTA ANITA

Race 9

1 Respendently (7/2): two back, in his first try at this bottom maiden

claiming level, he pressed a Zip +199! while wide and between horses - that

winner's BL12 was 15.4. Drops back to the bottom for the win following neutral

effort last out against better. Must negotiate dicey inside draw on the cutback

to 5.5f.

$5.60 WINNER

Overcame dicey inside draw with help from the 'Silent Assassin' Brice Blanc.

Nickname provided by Gary Stevens on HRTV.

Racing Flow™ subscribers hopefully started the late Pick 3 with bold type

winner Hemera ($7.60). We had a 'None' in the feature and a single

upgrade in the 9th - today's hero Resplendently. Even a no brainer 'All' in the

middle leg returns more than 17-1, while a $2 Win bet Parlay on Hemera and

Page 13: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Resplendently returns just 9-1.

-plod boy phil

01/16/2011

12:40pm ET

January 15, 2011

FAIRGROUNDS

Race 7

6 Kiss My Kriss (6-1): upgrade the last, his first race since June, when

closing well vs a Plod -194.

Off the board at 11-1

Fell to his face at the start

TURFWAY

Page 14: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Race 9

2 Minewander (10-1): prior to the last failed effort on the dirt at Tampa,

this runner received upgrades in his previous three - a modest 'Quick to Zip'

two back, vs a Plod -240 three back and a vs Plod -219 win four back.

2nd by a head at 6-1

-pbp

01/15/2011

12:39pm ET

January 14, 2011

AQUEDUCT

Race 7

1 Minister's Fate (6-1): upgrade the last when closing well from behind the

winner vs a Plod -215. Local bow three back was also upgraded when vs a Plod

-160 and a wire to wire winner. Attempts first ever dirt route from inside draw.

$16.40 WINNER

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GULFSTREAM

Race 6

12 Liquid Fire (4-1): we'll upgrade his last when the clear pace setter of a

Zip +203! - that winner's BL12 was 22. Series of sharp works should have this

one ready to sprint again for sharp connections.

Off the board at 13-1

-plod boy phil

01/14/2011

12:55pm ET

January 13, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 6

11 Wild Expectations (6-1): closed nicely in his last despite a Plod -200!

(extremely speed favoring Flow). Gelding posted three straight vs Plod

upgrades last year, including a solid vs Plod Win in March.

Off the board at 9/2

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Racing Flow™ subscribers, as well as those of you that looked at your PPs,

may have noted that Haps Alphabet Soup ($65.60) exited the same race as

'Wild' and received the same vs Plod Upgrade, having closed from further back

with trouble while beaten just a length by that one.

-pbp

01/13/2011

11:40am ET

January 12, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 7

9 Andysun (3-1): receives a 'Quick to' upgrade for the last on a Severely

Closer Biased +280 track. This runner was closer than the eventual winner

early on, made a premature move to the top and was run down from behind.

Outrun at 9/5

-plod boy phil

01/12/2011

12:26pm ET

Page 17: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

January 9, 2011

FAIR GROUNDS

Race 3 1 Monkeyinthemiddle (6-1): comes in off back to back 'speed'

upgrades. Two back, in a one turn mile at CD, he set the pace of a Zip +153 - that winner's BL12 was 31! Last out when sprinting 6f on this

track, he pressed the pace on a Severely Closer Biased track - that winner's BL12 was 10. Capable of taking them all the way from inside

draw with blinkers on.

Off the board at 3-1 Set another Zip

GULFSTREAM

Race 5 11 Too Clever by Half (4-1): her lone turf race was a vs Zip +220! pace

setting effort at Saratoga. Appears to own plenty of natural gate speed for high percentage connections.

2nd at 9/5

Page 18: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

-plod boy phil

01/09/2011

12:21pm ET

January 8, 2011

GULFSTREAM

Race 8 4 Guys Reward (7/2): recorded a Plod Boy favorite 'vs Plod Win' last

out, running through a -168 Flow from 8.1 back (BL12, or beaten lengths at the 1st two calls combined).

3rd at 3-1

Interesting trip. You may want to keep an eye on this one in 2011.

-pbp

01/08/2011

12:22pm ET

January 6, 2011

AQUEDUCT

Page 19: RACING FLOW INCORPORATED Plod Boy Bonus Plays January 1 ...racingflow.com/images/Plod_Boy_Bonus_Plays_January_2011.pdf · 5 Askbut I Won'ttell (4-1): recorded an impressive vs Plod

Race 8 7 New Adventure (8-1): made a strong 'Quick to' move on

the Severely Closer Biased surface of Dec 9 when too close and moving too soon to the lead - that winner's BL12 was 17. Two back was the

pace setter on an important Closer Biased track. Turns back from outside draw.

3rd at 5-1

GULFSTREAM

Race 6 8 Don't Lock Me Out (12-1): Upgrade the last when making a 'Quick to Zip' move into a +186 Flow - that winner's BL12 was 22 to his 7.

Note that the MSW win on turf was a deep closing run under neutral Flow.

Outrun at 12-1

-pbp

01/06/2011

12:17pm ET

January 5, 2011

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AQUEDUCT

Race 5 1 Who's the Cowboy (5/2): Upgrade his last, an impressvie vs Plod -187 Win with a BL12 of nearly 10. This one also owns a 'close to

impossible' vs Plod -287 Win three back.

2nd at 6/5

GULFSTREAM

Race 7 4 Litigating (4-1): receives solid vs Plod -318! Upgrade for her last in a restricted turf stake behind a wire to wire winner. Fresh and ready for

sharp connections.

2nd at 4-1

-pbp

01/05/2011

1:15pm ET

January 2, 2011

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CALDER

Race 4 4 Joyous Music (5-1): upgrade her last against MSW company when the loose leader on a moderately Closer Biased track - that

winner's BL12 was 9. Three back, at this Md25000 level, she weakened late after being a runaway pace setter of a Zip +267 - that winners

BL12 was 23!

$5.60 Winner

TURFWAY

Race 6

9 It's Mr.Cat to You (4-1): is one of two runners on this card exiting a Racing Flow™ 'Extreme Race' - a race in which she closed six wide vs a

Plod -156 and did it on a Speed Biased -177 track. Board hitting sort on synthetics is capable of more today.

2nd at 8/5

* Note: The other 'Extreme Race' upgrade, Stormy Passage, ran 2nd in

race 9.

-pbp

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01/02/2011

11:30am ET

January 1, 2011

AQUEDUCT

Race 9 9 Carmella C (6-1): makes her 2nd lifetine start follwing an upgraded effort in her debut when chasing a Zip +217 - that winner's BL12 was

more than 10. Modest drop, blinkers and outside draw all add to the appeal.

Off the board at 9/2

CALDER

Race 6 8 Quiet Emarati (5/2): comes in off back to back 'Quick to' Upgrades.

Last out was closer than the eventual winner at the first two calls (BL12) and moved too soon to the lead on a severely Closer Biased +217 track.

Two back, at this level, was again too close to a Zip +123 - that winner's BL12 was 22.

Off the board at even money

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TURFWAY

Race 10 8 Crimson Fire (15-1): upgrade the last when too close and moving into

the teeth of a Zip +184 - that winner's BL12 was more than 22!. Turns back to 5.5f and drops to the bottom today.

4th at 8-1

-plod boy phil

1/1/2011

11:48am ET